Slow Start Blues and Waiver Ideas

How are your fantasy teams doing? ( I really want to know). The first couple weeks of baseball season are tough. Your squad can either look great or lousy and there just isn't enough data to be certain of anything. Thus patience becomes vital. I obsess over the early box scores and beg my players to start hitting! This is when a brief distraction will do you well. You could kill a lot of time and win a few bucks at netbet.co.uk. Bury yourself in a tomb like OathBringer. Maybe give DFS a shot. The important thing is not to panic and do something you'll regret in a month or two.

In some leagues you might still have a shot at Greg Holland. After his first disastrous outing for the Cardinals he might go cheaper than expected if you are waiting to win a faab bid. I think he'll be fine. The Cards pretty apparently rushed him back and Mike Matheny's lack of game strategy didn't help. I placed a healthy bid in my leagues where he is available. Saves are saves.

Another interesting name to consider for an early waiver claim or injury replacement is Niko Goodrum. He was a second round pick of the Minnesota Twins who was a bit slow to develop. He was signed by the Detroit Tigers as a six-year minor league free-agent. The Tigers have him on the major league roster and he is getting some good playing time. He qualifies at first base and second base in a lot of leagues (a fairly unique position group). He is off to a pretty good start - batting .250/.318/.450 with a homer and three stolen bases in his first 22 plate appearances. His skills suggest he is capable of reaching 10 homers and 20 stolen bases if the playing time sticks. You could do worse.

Your league is probably catching on that Joey Lucchesi is no joke. He is not of the recent class of fireballing pitchers that dominate the propect lists but he is pretty damn good. He was the minor league pitcher of the year for the Padres who may just have the best group of prospects in the game. He has been compared to Kyle Hendricks and I like the comparison. His major league debut wasn't great (though the skills were obvious) but his last two outings including last night's six innings, eight strikeouts and zero earned runs in Colorado not excluded have been fantastic. Sign him up while you still can.

I'll be back.

Beware the Conventional Wisdom!

You might think that a guy like me who has written for a bunch of fantasy sports sites and keeps this sporadically updated blog active would recommend you read a lot of fantasy articles. You would be wrong. I read a ton of stuff but only a relatively small portion of it is actually about playing fantasy sports. Why not?

Fantasy articles as a whole (including this one) are about telling you who or what is good for your fantasy success and who or what is not. There is nothing wrong with that but as an owner you reach a level of knowledge and experience eventually where these articles (most of them) just start to confirm what you already think you know. The problem is most so-called experts (or analysts) are not spending a hell of a lot more time than the reader of a blog like this would spend researching and comparing and contrasting information to reach a conclusion. There are absolutely exceptions and those should be the relatively small percentage of fantasy articles you spend your precious time reading.

Instead you should spend a greater portion of your time studying the actual players and the skills they possess relative to other players and the context within which those skills are employed. You will want a passing familiarity with ADP and mass market values but no need to obsess or memorize them. The tougher your league the less these things will matter in your draft or auction. This is because the true experts when playing among other experts are not going to follow trends they will set new trends that their fans will then follow (even if the fans are just the other guys in your league).

Web sites such as Fangraghs.com, TheHardballtimes.com, Baseball-Reference.com, Statcorner.com, BrooksBaseball.net, are mostly free sites that you can draw a tremendous amount of data from in your study of players. Most of these also have a blog or publish articles about what their writers find in the data. When you get familiar with sites like this you are way ahead of the guys reading "Sleeper Starters By ADP". Baseball America.com, MinorLeagueBall.com (John Sickels) and Prospect361.com are my favorite sites for minor league info and scouting reports.

You also can win by having a greater understanding of the context in which players play than the other people in your leagues. I try to be in the heads of the major league GMs and the directors of player operations around MLB. I want to be the first one to understand what a move means not just for the player acquired or sent away but for all the players that will be impacted by that move. I know, I am a little crazy. Who has the time right? Technology is your friend.

Set-up an RSS reader for your baseball reading. I use Feedly - it has free and paid versions (the free version is great I promise). An RSS reader is great when you have limited time and lots of articles to potentially read. I use the reader to subscribe to one newspaper blog or writer that updates frequently and then a fan blog (I like to find the obsessive but high-functioning ones) and a minor league blog for each of the MLB teams. This is easier for some teams than others - the Mariners have a dozen great bloggers, the Rockies not so many. Reading this way I'm able to read through most of the stuff on my commute back and forth to work (most experts have day jobs) and at various moments throughout the day.

Which actual fantasy stuff do I read?

I glance at stuff on BaseballHQ.com but I spend more time in the subscriber forums than on the articles. Rotogrinders.com - these guys are putting their money on the line and you know they aren't just feeding stuff for google rankings. Scout.com has Shawn Childs and Adam Ronis and I read most of their stuff. I'll read whatever Ron Shandler and Todd Zola publish just because they are really smart guys with a logic to what they write that I really appreciate. And I buy Rotoman's Fantasy Magazine every year just because.

The 2016-17 Baseball Winter Meetings Begin

The 2016-17 MLB Winter Meetings begin tonight and with the CBA out of the way, we can only hope that this cranks up the heat in the Hot Stove and provides plenty of action to get us excited about the 2017 baseball season. I spend most of the winter pretending Fantasy Football is just as interesting as Fantasy Baseball (it is not) and visiting sports betting sites as I eagerly await the trades and free-agent signings that provide fodder for articles like this one.

The rumors are already starting of major deals close to fruition - the Dodgers are rumored to be close on re-signing starter Rich Hill to a three-year $48 million contract; the Astros (more below) have reportedly agreed with Carlos Beltran on a one-year deal for $16 million; Jon Heyman is reporting that both the Nationals and Giants have four year $60 million offers out to Mark Melancon; Derek Norris is back with the Nationals; and finally the Yankees are supposedly in the driver's seat on 34-year old slugger Edwin Encarnacion despite being in rebuild mode.

So, on the eve of the Winter Meetings lets look at a couple of the more interesting baseball transactions of the winter thus far and their fantasy ramifications.

The Eric Thames Signing

As a Chris Carter owner this was not my favorite transaction of the week. The fact that I had been attempting to trade high on Carter's 41 homers had a little something to do with it. Carter of course has been designated for assignment and is headed for free agency. Rumors have the Orioles, Yankees and Blue Jays at least mildly interested. But what do the Brewers have in Eric Thames?

Eric Thames was a solid prospect for the Toronto Blue Jays who had a decent debut season but spent the next two seasons getting sporadic major league at-bats between the Blue Jays and Mariners. He went to South Korea to play in the KBO and became a star player, an MVP in fact. He hit for massive averages, got on base a ton and hit homers like Cecil Fielder back in the day. He even stoles bases and had the KBO's only 40/40 season. And now? He is a Brewer.

Only a few hitters have managed to make their way from the KBO to MLB but surprisingly the ones that have found their skills mostly translated. Clay Davenport who I love for his statistical translation between U.S. leagues and places like Cuba and Japan has suggested that Thames is for real and should hit for average and homers (and even steal some bases) now that he is back in the states. His projected slash based on 2015 numbers suggested a slash of  .333/.389/.628 with 30 homers. I'll bet a few bucks on that projected outcome.

The Jean Segura Trade 

Given the going rate for pitching in Major League Baseball it is a bit surprising that more writers haven't dove deeper into the players accompanying Jean Segura from Arizona (though Mitch Haniger is quickly gaining a sleeper label in fantasy circles) in return for promising potential ace and controllable starter, Taijuan Walker. And just about everyone has ignored the possibilities that Ketel Marte represents.

Jean Segura had a great 2016 season with the Diamondbacks and will go down as the best acquisition made by the LaRussa/Stewart Regime. Arizona's Chase Field is a great environment for a hitter and the change of scenery probably helped a lot as injuries and personal tragedy were clearly a drag on his performance in Milwaukee. The tools for this performance have always been there and despite weaknesses in his batting eye, he makes excellent contact, has decent power and the speed to steal 30-plus bases per season. In 2016 he hit the ball harder and Chase field definitely had an impact on his performance. Moving to Seattle's Safeco Field may sap a bit of that power and batting average but I expect he will still be a strong fantasy producer with a BA closer to .270 than .300 and closer to 10 than 20 homers. That said being in the American League and a potentially strong lineup in Seattle he should score plenty of runs and have better RBI potential even in the leadoff spot.

Mitch Haniger may be priced out of sleeper range by the times most drafts start. According to Baseball America, Seattle officials are certain that Haniger will be on the major league roster to begin the 2017 season, most likely as the starting left fielder. Haniger has largely come out of nowhere after re-modeling his swing with a leg kick fashioned after players like A.J. Pollock and Jose Bautista to tap more into his natural power. Haniger already had a decent batting eye and all the tools you would want in an outfielder but had failed to impress statistically. In 2016 he exploded for 30 homers (and 12 stolen bases). He is almost universally being projected to hit for a decent average (.250 or so) and around 20 homers in a full season in the majors, that might be light.

Zac Curtis had a great minor league season but blew up a bit the majors (just like the rest of the Diamondbacks bullpen). From all reports his stuff is just average but his minor league strikeout rates are intriguing. He is not worth a draft pick but at some point he might be a useful source of lefty relief pitching with K-potential.

Taijuan Walker has almost everything you want in a pitcher. He has great stuff, solid control, good strikeouts and induces ground balls. His only real flaw is allowing homeruns. His hr/fb rate for his career is just under 14 percent. Steve Gilbert of MLB.com says Walker is working on adding a two-seam fastball to his repertoire. In theory this could boost his ground ball percentage and reduce the number of costly fly balls a bit. Its something to watch in Spring Training.

Ketel Marte is almost a light version of Segura. He has the same tools just on a slightly lower scale. He advanced through the minors very quickly rarely spending an entire season at a level and skipping levels without missing a beat despite always being among the youngest players in his respective leagues. Unlike Segura he has shown patience at the plate and the ability to draw walks, until 2016 anyway. In his first full season in the majors his walk rate was a bit disappointing despite his history and he chased more pitches than usual as well. To me this sounds like the over eagerness of a young player in the majors to impress the masses. He also suffered a variety of injuries to his hamstring, neck and ankle and dealt with mononucleosis in 2016 and had two stints on the disabled list. With a return to health in the offensively productive environment of Chase Field I expect he is a lot closer to his 2015 level of performance than the 2016 level. The Diamondbacks appear ready to let him start the season at shortstop and see what happens which bodes well. With his potential on-base skills he should be able to earn a spot near the top of the lineup and score a ton of runs and steal close to 30 bases.

Any Which Way But Loose: A 2016 All-Star Break Review

How is your fantasy team doing so far? Are you exceeding expectations or have you failed to meet them? If you are anything like me you probably have teams in both categories. I am sticking in there even in the leagues where I'm suffering a bit because rebuilding is for wussies (not really but I like the way it sounds). If you have already dumped entertain yourself with the best sportsbook while you wait for prospects and breakouts to buy with your FAAB dollars.

The most important thing to do in your All-Star break evaluation period is to be as realistic as possible about your chances. How many points can you hope to achieve by your players rebounding to a reasonable level? Which players do you own that might decline? Who can you acquire in trade if you go for it? What if you dump? Where would those trades leave you for the 2017 season?

Below you'll find some ideas to ponder and some are just fun to think about. The first half All Stars are a pretty obvious concept. They include my own biases in combination with statistical review. The second half picks are even less scientific but I feel strongly about most of them.

I'd love to hear about your season thus far and what you think of these lists in the comments or e-mail me if you want.

The 2016 AFB First Half All-Stars:

C Wilson Ramos - The power was expected but the batting average is shockingly good.

C Buster Posey - Posey is so good and so consistent, it's actually rather boring to pick him.

1B Will Myers - He's healthy, playing first base and his promising future is visible again.

3B Josh Donaldson - The A's made a huge mistake not getting more for this guy!

CI Mark Trumbo - I have to give this spot to the MLB homerun leader. He deserves it.

2B Jose Altuve - He might be the best player in fantasy baseball right now.

SS Xander Bogaerts - There are at least six guys that deserve this position,  Xander is the coolest.

MI Jonathan Schoop - He's batting 300 with power and coming into his own. Watch him!

OF Mike Trout - He is still the best of the bunch and the stolen bases are back.

OF Kris Bryant - I want to put the NL homerun leader at third base so badly!

OF Ian Desmond - I want to put him back at shortstop so badly!

OF Mookie Betts - Okay, I'm not writing my wish that Betts was still at second base. But I do.

OF Yoenis Cespedes - He's earning every penny at the plate but the stolen bases are gone.

DH David Ortiz - He's going out in style at the plate, unfortunately for him the Red Sox suck.

SP Jose Fernandez - Even with a rough start to the year he is plowing through MLB with ease.

SP Stephen Strasburg - The fear of injury never goes away, he is a true ace.

SP Clayton Kershaw - Hopefully the back injury is as minor as it sounds.

SP Noah Syndergaard - He is the new Mets ace in a rotation of aces.

SP Madison Bumgarner - This is the guy you want on the mound on the last day of the season.

MR Andrew Miller - He could be the Cubs closer in a week or two.

MR Dellin Betances - The Yankees bullpen is as good as expected, the team is pretty weak otherwise.

MR Justin Wilson - He should be a Yankee too. Cashman makes some strange trades.

CL Zach Britton - The closer for the first place Orioles is a certified stud.

CL Kenley Jansen - He should be one of the most heavily checked free agents this fall.

I tried not to pick the obvious guys every time, though this doesn't stray too far from the statistical best. A fun experiment would have been to use a 260 budget to pick the roster but who has that kind of time? 

The 2016 Honorable Mentions (mostly breakouts and rookies):

OF Jackie Bradley Jr - He is on pace for a 20/20 season if he can maintain his current production.

SS Aledmys Diaz - The Cuban found his mojo when he got DFA'd, now Peralta's old job is his.

SP Kyle Hendricks - His win/loss record shows the dude has no luck at all but he's earned his place near the top of the Cubs rotation.

RP Derek Law - He looks like a future Giants closer.

C J.T. Realmuto - A catcher that hits and steals bases always has a spot on my list.

C Wilson Contreras - The Cubs are so loaded, it just is not fair. They can trade Kyle Schwarber to the Yankees and not miss a beat.

OF Tyler Naquin - The former first round pick has raked this year but the Indians refuse to let him prove its for real.

OF Ezequiel Carrera - He looks like the future right fielder, since Jose Bautista seems determined to move on in free agency.

OF Jay Bruce - He is healthy and back in All-Star form.

SS Corey Seager - He is just as good as expected, if not better.

OF Melvin Upton Jr. - Not bad BJ, not bad at all (obligatory Independence Day Resurgence joke - as if the movie wasn't enough).

3B Jake Lamb - He deserves a slot on the real MLB All-Star team.

These are the guys you have on your roster for cheap who you'll be keeping next year and that your league mates will be bugging you to trade, but you won't. 

The AFB Second-Half Picks: (almost purely guess work but with logic applied)

C Russell Martin - He's switched to a lighter bat and is already showing signs of a rebound.

C Travis D'Arnaud - Since returning from the DL (again) he is hitting with power once again.

1B Carlos Santana - This guy can really hit and the Indians are back in contention.

3B Jake Lamb - I am telling you, get him now if you still can.

CI A.J. Reed - It's just a hunch but I think he's gonna rock after the break.

2B Jonathan Schoop - This is the birth of a star, trust me.

SS Didi Gregorius - He has figured it out. Remember when the D'Backs compared him to Derek Jeter?

MI Carlos Correa - He's already cranking again, did you miss that?

OF Justin Upton - He spent the first two months doing absolutely nothing (his brother was better). He is now awake, we're just waiting for him to get hot.

OF Peter Bourjos - It has been a while but we used to think he'd be good. Now's his chance.

OF Curtis Granderson - The Mets need him to be the version that hits and gets on base.

OF Giancarlo Stanton - The Barry Bonds effect is going to do good things in the second half.

OF Yasiel Puig - You are forgiven if you forgot how young and talented this kid is.

DH Kenny Vargas - He has true power if he can keep the strikeouts at a reasonable level he could have a huge second half.

SP David Price - The skills are still on display, it is just the results that suck - I call it the Red Sox Effect.

SP Yordano Ventura - The Royals Effect is much better than the Red Sox Effect.

SP Michael Pineda - Too many skills here, he can be the Yankees ace.

SP Luis Perdomo - Another pitcher with skills and mediocre results.

SP Marcus Stroman - I have a feeling that the playoff push kicks him into gear.

SP Chris Archer - He is too good to suffer this way. Getting his center fielder back can't hurt.

MR Liam Hendricks - Since coming off the DL he looks like the bullpen ace he was last year.

MR Carl Edwards Jr. - CJ is the bullpen cog the Cubs have been missing.

MR Dylan Bundy - He has proven healthy again now he just needs a bigger role.

MR Shane Green - He really should be in the rotation but the Tigers need him in the bullpen.

These are basically the guys I would be working to acquire in trade talks (a couple may even be free agents in some leagues). They are not playing like studs (most of them) and they present the opportunity to be better in the second half and also potentially add to your keeper list.

Kicking Off Draft-Prep Season

The Colorado Rockies might be the most inept organization in MLB. They recently signed free agent outfielder Gerardo Parra, which in and of itself is not so horrible, but to clear a roster spot they designated Kyle Parker their 2010 first round pick who has had all of 138 plate appearances across two up and down seasons. Not exactly a long audition for a first round pick who has generally hit well in the minors. Then they compounded this mistake by trading not-yet abritration eligible outfielder Corey Dickerson to the Tampa Bay Rays (the Rays are like that guy in your league with whom you almost always regret making trades) for a twice-DLed relief pitcher. This as the team remains mediocre with expensive declining pieces still on the roster. I listened to their new GM Jeff Bridich on MLB Radio on SIRIUS last week and he comes off as a baseball neanderthal. So I guess I should not be surprised. Maybe I am judging too harshly and this is an attempt at a strongbullpen/fastball pitcher strategy but I do not have much faith.

I'll give a dollar to own Tim Lincecum in hopes his recovery from hip surgery truly means he can return to the mechanics he used during his Cy Young period. It would not be the most shocking career rebound we have seen. I would be willing to waste a dollar on Cliff Lee as well, assuming he ends up in a good situation.

Closer Tip: When you are considering which pitcher to draft for saves you should weigh whether or not the current closer is the best pitcher in the bullpen. If he isn't, look elsewhere for saves and draft the best guy in a given bullpen to finish your pitching staff or fill out your reserves. You can pretty much ignore media speculation and manager noise about next-in-line relievers. (More to come in the site's new newletter.)

More and more of the industry experts seem to be coming around to the conclusion that targeting statistical totals based on a set of projections as a draft strategy is not necessarily a winning formula. Ron Shandler's Other Book is largely based on the idea that depending on projections as part of your draft strategy is not a great start to building your fantasy teams. While Tanner Bell (of the quite awesome Smart Fantasy Baseball) seems to contradict this idea in his recent article for RotoGraphs, most of the evidence he presents simultaneously demonstrates that your targets based on projections vary widely from the actual results. The conclusion you end up with is that targeting skills and playing time is a far more successful strategy than counting adding up homerun and RBI projections.

Draft Kings Lineup October 4th, 2015

I didn't place a lineup last week. But week two was a disaster...

QB Andy Dalton
RB Latavius Murray
RB Joseph Randle
WR A.J. Green
WR Julio Jones
WR Larry Fitzgerald
TE Larry Donnell
Flex Karlos Williams
Def Tampa Bay

The Future of Luis Valbuena and Third Base for the Astros

Luis Valbuena had a solid season with some potentially confusing results. He began the season as the Houston Astros primary third baseman after several seasons as a sort of super-utility player for the Cleveland Indians and Chicago Cubs. In 2014, Valbuena showed signs of a power breakout by batting .249/.341/.435 with 16 homers in 478 at-bats. Well, the power certainly came on as Valbuena had slammed 25 homers going into the last day of the season. He hit 19 of those homers in the first half but with a disappointing boom or bust slash of 199/.285/.430 that limited his value to fantasy owners even in this low batting average era. It was enough to return him to a more limited role in the second half of the season, as he entered a platoon of sorts with Jed Lowrie and made the odd appearance at second or first base. He did bring his batting average up, he finished at .224/.311/.441 by batting .273/.364/.462 in his last 143 at-bats. Valbuena would be eligible for free-agency after the 2016 season and is unlikely to be re-signed as a starter.

There are not any standout third basemen in free agency this year. It seems unlikely that the Astros will make a free agent addition. The Astros do have some very interesting prospects that could play a role in 2016. The most familiar name is probably Colin Moran who came to the Astros via a trade in 2014 and has done nothing but hit since. Moran's first half was largely ruined by a fractured jaw suffered by an errant throw in May. He made up for the slow start with a blistering second half of the season in which he batted .333/.416/.526 and earned a promotion to Triple-A. GM Jeff Luhnow is a big fan of Moran - trading for him after seriously considering him with the first overall pick in 2013. Moran probably hits for a solid or better average in the majors but has not yet developed the power most managers like to see at the position.

Less well known but moving up prospect charts with a bullet is Tyler White. White was a 33rd round pick out of Western Carolina University. He has hit at every level and has more in-game power than Moran. He is not yet on the 40-man roster but is certain to be added after this season. He hit a combined 325/.442/.496 with 84 walks and 73 strikeouts on the season along with 25 doubles, 14 homeruns and 99 RBI. He is seen by many as a future first baseman but has played more at third base than first to this point. His bat looks extremely potent and there should be more power coming.

J.D. Davis is even less well known than White but he has the best right-now power of this trio of prospects. This season he hit .280/.370/.520 with 28 doubles, three triples, 26 home runs and 101 RBI in 120 games. He was a college first baseman and pitcher and has a plsu arm at third but is still learning some of the nuances of the position. He is the furthest away from the majors as things stand but if his glove continues to improve and he develops into a solid third baseman he could be at the top of this list in going into the 2017 season.

The guess here is that Jed Lowrie and Luis Valbuena will be the favorite going into Spring Training to renew their platooon at the position. But I expect Tyler White to make a lot of noise in the spring and either he and Moran could  complicate things going into the 2016 season. All things being equal, Moran probably gets the first real opportunity due to his draft pedigree but White probably has the most impact bat.