Any Which Way But Loose: A 2016 All-Star Break Review

How is your fantasy team doing so far? Are you exceeding expectations or have you failed to meet them? If you are anything like me you probably have teams in both categories. I am sticking in there even in the leagues where I'm suffering a bit because rebuilding is for wussies (not really but I like the way it sounds). If you have already dumped entertain yourself with the best sportsbook while you wait for prospects and breakouts to buy with your FAAB dollars.

The most important thing to do in your All-Star break evaluation period is to be as realistic as possible about your chances. How many points can you hope to achieve by your players rebounding to a reasonable level? Which players do you own that might decline? Who can you acquire in trade if you go for it? What if you dump? Where would those trades leave you for the 2017 season?

Below you'll find some ideas to ponder and some are just fun to think about. The first half All Stars are a pretty obvious concept. They include my own biases in combination with statistical review. The second half picks are even less scientific but I feel strongly about most of them.

I'd love to hear about your season thus far and what you think of these lists in the comments or e-mail me if you want.

The 2016 AFB First Half All-Stars:

C Wilson Ramos - The power was expected but the batting average is shockingly good.

C Buster Posey - Posey is so good and so consistent, it's actually rather boring to pick him.

1B Will Myers - He's healthy, playing first base and his promising future is visible again.

3B Josh Donaldson - The A's made a huge mistake not getting more for this guy!

CI Mark Trumbo - I have to give this spot to the MLB homerun leader. He deserves it.

2B Jose Altuve - He might be the best player in fantasy baseball right now.

SS Xander Bogaerts - There are at least six guys that deserve this position,  Xander is the coolest.

MI Jonathan Schoop - He's batting 300 with power and coming into his own. Watch him!

OF Mike Trout - He is still the best of the bunch and the stolen bases are back.

OF Kris Bryant - I want to put the NL homerun leader at third base so badly!

OF Ian Desmond - I want to put him back at shortstop so badly!

OF Mookie Betts - Okay, I'm not writing my wish that Betts was still at second base. But I do.

OF Yoenis Cespedes - He's earning every penny at the plate but the stolen bases are gone.

DH David Ortiz - He's going out in style at the plate, unfortunately for him the Red Sox suck.

SP Jose Fernandez - Even with a rough start to the year he is plowing through MLB with ease.

SP Stephen Strasburg - The fear of injury never goes away, he is a true ace.

SP Clayton Kershaw - Hopefully the back injury is as minor as it sounds.

SP Noah Syndergaard - He is the new Mets ace in a rotation of aces.

SP Madison Bumgarner - This is the guy you want on the mound on the last day of the season.

MR Andrew Miller - He could be the Cubs closer in a week or two.

MR Dellin Betances - The Yankees bullpen is as good as expected, the team is pretty weak otherwise.

MR Justin Wilson - He should be a Yankee too. Cashman makes some strange trades.

CL Zach Britton - The closer for the first place Orioles is a certified stud.

CL Kenley Jansen - He should be one of the most heavily checked free agents this fall.

I tried not to pick the obvious guys every time, though this doesn't stray too far from the statistical best. A fun experiment would have been to use a 260 budget to pick the roster but who has that kind of time? 

The 2016 Honorable Mentions (mostly breakouts and rookies):

OF Jackie Bradley Jr - He is on pace for a 20/20 season if he can maintain his current production.

SS Aledmys Diaz - The Cuban found his mojo when he got DFA'd, now Peralta's old job is his.

SP Kyle Hendricks - His win/loss record shows the dude has no luck at all but he's earned his place near the top of the Cubs rotation.

RP Derek Law - He looks like a future Giants closer.

C J.T. Realmuto - A catcher that hits and steals bases always has a spot on my list.

C Wilson Contreras - The Cubs are so loaded, it just is not fair. They can trade Kyle Schwarber to the Yankees and not miss a beat.

OF Tyler Naquin - The former first round pick has raked this year but the Indians refuse to let him prove its for real.

OF Ezequiel Carrera - He looks like the future right fielder, since Jose Bautista seems determined to move on in free agency.

OF Jay Bruce - He is healthy and back in All-Star form.

SS Corey Seager - He is just as good as expected, if not better.

OF Melvin Upton Jr. - Not bad BJ, not bad at all (obligatory Independence Day Resurgence joke - as if the movie wasn't enough).

3B Jake Lamb - He deserves a slot on the real MLB All-Star team.

These are the guys you have on your roster for cheap who you'll be keeping next year and that your league mates will be bugging you to trade, but you won't. 

The AFB Second-Half Picks: (almost purely guess work but with logic applied)

C Russell Martin - He's switched to a lighter bat and is already showing signs of a rebound.

C Travis D'Arnaud - Since returning from the DL (again) he is hitting with power once again.

1B Carlos Santana - This guy can really hit and the Indians are back in contention.

3B Jake Lamb - I am telling you, get him now if you still can.

CI A.J. Reed - It's just a hunch but I think he's gonna rock after the break.

2B Jonathan Schoop - This is the birth of a star, trust me.

SS Didi Gregorius - He has figured it out. Remember when the D'Backs compared him to Derek Jeter?

MI Carlos Correa - He's already cranking again, did you miss that?

OF Justin Upton - He spent the first two months doing absolutely nothing (his brother was better). He is now awake, we're just waiting for him to get hot.

OF Peter Bourjos - It has been a while but we used to think he'd be good. Now's his chance.

OF Curtis Granderson - The Mets need him to be the version that hits and gets on base.

OF Giancarlo Stanton - The Barry Bonds effect is going to do good things in the second half.

OF Yasiel Puig - You are forgiven if you forgot how young and talented this kid is.

DH Kenny Vargas - He has true power if he can keep the strikeouts at a reasonable level he could have a huge second half.

SP David Price - The skills are still on display, it is just the results that suck - I call it the Red Sox Effect.

SP Yordano Ventura - The Royals Effect is much better than the Red Sox Effect.

SP Michael Pineda - Too many skills here, he can be the Yankees ace.

SP Luis Perdomo - Another pitcher with skills and mediocre results.

SP Marcus Stroman - I have a feeling that the playoff push kicks him into gear.

SP Chris Archer - He is too good to suffer this way. Getting his center fielder back can't hurt.

MR Liam Hendricks - Since coming off the DL he looks like the bullpen ace he was last year.

MR Carl Edwards Jr. - CJ is the bullpen cog the Cubs have been missing.

MR Dylan Bundy - He has proven healthy again now he just needs a bigger role.

MR Shane Green - He really should be in the rotation but the Tigers need him in the bullpen.

These are basically the guys I would be working to acquire in trade talks (a couple may even be free agents in some leagues). They are not playing like studs (most of them) and they present the opportunity to be better in the second half and also potentially add to your keeper list.

Kicking Off Draft-Prep Season

The Colorado Rockies might be the most inept organization in MLB. They recently signed free agent outfielder Gerardo Parra, which in and of itself is not so horrible, but to clear a roster spot they designated Kyle Parker their 2010 first round pick who has had all of 138 plate appearances across two up and down seasons. Not exactly a long audition for a first round pick who has generally hit well in the minors. Then they compounded this mistake by trading not-yet abritration eligible outfielder Corey Dickerson to the Tampa Bay Rays (the Rays are like that guy in your league with whom you almost always regret making trades) for a twice-DLed relief pitcher. This as the team remains mediocre with expensive declining pieces still on the roster. I listened to their new GM Jeff Bridich on MLB Radio on SIRIUS last week and he comes off as a baseball neanderthal. So I guess I should not be surprised. Maybe I am judging too harshly and this is an attempt at a strongbullpen/fastball pitcher strategy but I do not have much faith.

I'll give a dollar to own Tim Lincecum in hopes his recovery from hip surgery truly means he can return to the mechanics he used during his Cy Young period. It would not be the most shocking career rebound we have seen. I would be willing to waste a dollar on Cliff Lee as well, assuming he ends up in a good situation.

Closer Tip: When you are considering which pitcher to draft for saves you should weigh whether or not the current closer is the best pitcher in the bullpen. If he isn't, look elsewhere for saves and draft the best guy in a given bullpen to finish your pitching staff or fill out your reserves. You can pretty much ignore media speculation and manager noise about next-in-line relievers. (More to come in the site's new newletter.)

More and more of the industry experts seem to be coming around to the conclusion that targeting statistical totals based on a set of projections as a draft strategy is not necessarily a winning formula. Ron Shandler's Other Book is largely based on the idea that depending on projections as part of your draft strategy is not a great start to building your fantasy teams. While Tanner Bell (of the quite awesome Smart Fantasy Baseball) seems to contradict this idea in his recent article for RotoGraphs, most of the evidence he presents simultaneously demonstrates that your targets based on projections vary widely from the actual results. The conclusion you end up with is that targeting skills and playing time is a far more successful strategy than counting adding up homerun and RBI projections.

Draft Kings Lineup October 4th, 2015

I didn't place a lineup last week. But week two was a disaster...

QB Andy Dalton
RB Latavius Murray
RB Joseph Randle
WR A.J. Green
WR Julio Jones
WR Larry Fitzgerald
TE Larry Donnell
Flex Karlos Williams
Def Tampa Bay

The Future of Luis Valbuena and Third Base for the Astros

Luis Valbuena had a solid season with some potentially confusing results. He began the season as the Houston Astros primary third baseman after several seasons as a sort of super-utility player for the Cleveland Indians and Chicago Cubs. In 2014, Valbuena showed signs of a power breakout by batting .249/.341/.435 with 16 homers in 478 at-bats. Well, the power certainly came on as Valbuena had slammed 25 homers going into the last day of the season. He hit 19 of those homers in the first half but with a disappointing boom or bust slash of 199/.285/.430 that limited his value to fantasy owners even in this low batting average era. It was enough to return him to a more limited role in the second half of the season, as he entered a platoon of sorts with Jed Lowrie and made the odd appearance at second or first base. He did bring his batting average up, he finished at .224/.311/.441 by batting .273/.364/.462 in his last 143 at-bats. Valbuena would be eligible for free-agency after the 2016 season and is unlikely to be re-signed as a starter.

There are not any standout third basemen in free agency this year. It seems unlikely that the Astros will make a free agent addition. The Astros do have some very interesting prospects that could play a role in 2016. The most familiar name is probably Colin Moran who came to the Astros via a trade in 2014 and has done nothing but hit since. Moran's first half was largely ruined by a fractured jaw suffered by an errant throw in May. He made up for the slow start with a blistering second half of the season in which he batted .333/.416/.526 and earned a promotion to Triple-A. GM Jeff Luhnow is a big fan of Moran - trading for him after seriously considering him with the first overall pick in 2013. Moran probably hits for a solid or better average in the majors but has not yet developed the power most managers like to see at the position.

Less well known but moving up prospect charts with a bullet is Tyler White. White was a 33rd round pick out of Western Carolina University. He has hit at every level and has more in-game power than Moran. He is not yet on the 40-man roster but is certain to be added after this season. He hit a combined 325/.442/.496 with 84 walks and 73 strikeouts on the season along with 25 doubles, 14 homeruns and 99 RBI. He is seen by many as a future first baseman but has played more at third base than first to this point. His bat looks extremely potent and there should be more power coming.

J.D. Davis is even less well known than White but he has the best right-now power of this trio of prospects. This season he hit .280/.370/.520 with 28 doubles, three triples, 26 home runs and 101 RBI in 120 games. He was a college first baseman and pitcher and has a plsu arm at third but is still learning some of the nuances of the position. He is the furthest away from the majors as things stand but if his glove continues to improve and he develops into a solid third baseman he could be at the top of this list in going into the 2017 season.

The guess here is that Jed Lowrie and Luis Valbuena will be the favorite going into Spring Training to renew their platooon at the position. But I expect Tyler White to make a lot of noise in the spring and either he and Moran could  complicate things going into the 2016 season. All things being equal, Moran probably gets the first real opportunity due to his draft pedigree but White probably has the most impact bat.

Draft Kings Lineup Sept 20th , 2015

I may regret replacing Alfred Morris with Lagarrette Blount at the last minute but we'll see...  Last week I netted $6 on $12 bet.

QB Drew Brees
RB L. Blount
RB Carlos Hyde
WR Antonio Brown
WR Davante Adams
WR Kendall Wright
TE Tyler Eiffer
Flex Larry Fitzgerald

September 13th, Draft Kings NFL Lineup

My Draft KIngs NFL Lineup for this week:

QB Sam Bradford - The best situation he has ever been in as a pro, he finally has both protection and targets.
RB Eddie Lacy - He is a stud running back playing on a team that forces defenses to look for the pass.
RB Latavius Murray - He's been inconsistent but I think this is his year.
WR Dez Bryant - No doubt stud receiver with an above average QB.
WR Davante Adams - Forced into the starting lineup, I think he'll be a solid number two and an eventual stud.
WR Stevie Johnson - The best quarterback he's had in his career and plenty of targets available. Underrated.
TE Tyler Eiffert - He's healthy and could be the underneath weapon the Bengals need.
Flex Justin Forsett - A stud running back without the stud running back price-tag.
Def Bengals - The number one defense in the NFL this season.

2015 Big Finishes and Slow Fades Part 2

The Slow Fade - there are the players I see slowing down as the season comes to a close. Not necessarily at a disastrous level but way off their first half pace

C - Yasmani Grandal, Los Angeles Dodgers

Grandal is a good young hitter and he has clearly benefited from the move to Dodger Stadium from Petco Park. But I think his power numbers are a bit over his head and will fade over the last two months of the season. He can hit, I just do not see him as the 25-30 homer guy his 21.2 HR/FB rate (career 16.2) makes him out to be. I do have to give him credit for the improvement in his catcher defense.

1B -  Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves

Although Freeman has returned from his wrist injury quickly, I do not expect a big finish. Wrist injuries are notorious for sapping power. If I owned Freeman I would be grateful if he just stayed in the line up and hit for average. For the rest of this season I would consider any power a huge bonus.

3B - Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies

I love Arenado but this is the season I expect the Rockies to finally trade off some of their more expensive players for an influx of younger talent. The result, I expect, would be a decrease in the pace of Arenado's runs and RBI. But if the Rockies sit on their hands again, you can ignore this completely. ***Since I started writing this piece the Rockies traded Tulo and there were plenty of rumors about CarGo as well.

2B - Dee Gordon, Miami Marlins

It is easy to pick on Dee Gordon here, since he clearly is unlikely to hit .330 all year. He also has a history of second half collapses. I don't think he'll lose all value in the second half but the average will drop and his stolen base total pace will slow dramatically. I blame this more on a Marlins team that has lost all reason to keep fighting more than on Gordon's skills or lack thereof. I will like him again next year.

SS - Jose Reyes, Colorado Rockies

If you are in an AL-only league you already be feeling Reyes' loss. The temptation will probably be to anticipate a huge jump in stats for Reyes playing in the thinner air around Coors Field, but Reyes has never hit well there with a .254/.259/.447 slash in just over a hundred at-bats. On top of that, Reyes is getting old and already slowing down. The prediction for one of my favorite players is that he limps to the finish this season.

OF - A. J. Pollock, Arizona Diamondbacks

I like Pollock. I just think he's been playing over his head a bit. The power is already showing signs of fading. I think he will finish with quality season totals but the second half will not be nearly a great as the first. And I don't mean to pick on the Diamondbacks but...

OF - Yasmany Tomas, Arizona Diamondbacks

Tomas has been much better than I anticipated he would be. But he has surprised a lot of people by hitting for average without power. I'm only surprised by the average. Still, the Diamondbacks (one of the more badly run organizations in my opinion) seem to be favoring keeping David Peralta and Ender Inciarte in the lineup at Tomas's expense. And I don't see the him hitting .300 in the second half.

OF - Carlos Gomez, Houston Astros

Gomez is already having a down season but with the trade there seems to be a lot of speculation that merely being an Astro will transform him back into the All-Star of the last few seasons. Despite the Mets horrible track record with diagnosing injuries, I find it easy to believe he is playing through injury given his down power and speed this season. Just because he is able to play does not mean he is truly healthy.

SP - Lance McCullers, Houston Astros

McCullers has been great and I think he has an awesome future but the Astros want to control his innings count and have added arms that will allow them to push him to the

CL - Jeurys Familia, New York Mets

He already has a few second half blown saves and now the Mets have brought in Tyler Clippard. I think the Mets will stick with him but Clippard is almost certain to steal chances from him.