The Hot Stove Season's Unwritten Rule #2

1)      Whenever a player seems to move to a better team his trade value increases. There is nothing fantasy owners like more than something new. Shiny new rookies with glittering minor league stats are almost always drafted too high. The same thing happens a veteran player joins a new team. The important thing to remember is that in addition to rule one, things like park factors, league changes, and coaching styles have a far greater impact than the name on the jersey.

Unwritten Rule of the Hot Stove Season #1

When a player changes teams there is increased risk.

    A lot of analysts will tell you about ballpark factors and league changes that will have an influence on a player’s production. There is more to it than just that. There is a comfort level that could change for the better or the worse. Different coaching styles could alter a player’s style and consequently change his production. It will not always be a negative change but for every Gio Gonzalez there is a Shawn Marcum, a John Lackey, a Jonathan Sanchez or Barry Zito. 

Hey Guys,

I've been doing a lot of work for Big League Monthly and the BLM Daily Edition. Please check it out.

Some recent pieces include:

Five Ways to Prepare for Next Season

Using MLB Teams as a Model for Fantasy

An Early Look at 2013 Season Targets

As anyone who has been a fan of this site knows, there is a lot more action in the offseason than during the season. Why? I guess I enjoy writing about the hot stove and examining how teams are built and how to exploit that to benefit fantasy teams. You should start to see some position rankings with a lot more commentary than you've seen before on my lists of this type.

See you soon!

The Amazing Austin Jackson - For Real?

Take a minute and think of a few players that might be the owner of this batting line:

.319 Batting Average/ .401 On-Base Percentage/ .527 Slugging Percentage

Joey Votto? Albert Pujols? Matt Holliday? Chances are you got it right because you looked at the title of this post. However, that does not make Austin Jackson's season any less impressive. If that is not enough, the Tigers' star center fielder has already either tied his career high in homers (10) and is nearly on pace for highs in doubles, triples, homers, walks, runs, and RBI. That after missing three weeks while on the disabled list with an abdomen injury. For fantasy owners the only real disappointment in his season is the low number of stolen bases - just eight as of this writing. The low number of steals can probably be blamed in part on his increased power, as most teams discourage stealing third base and attempting to steal home and not making it can get a young player benched.

The question you should all be asking is how much of this is improved skill and how much is just good fortune? Jackson entered the majors in his age 22 season. Three seasons in the majors and not yet in his prime - that is almost the recipe for a breakout season. His walk rate has improved two straight seasons from 7 percent to 8.4 percent to this season's 11.8 percent. That looks like real improvement. He has also cut his K percentage to 22.6 percent from last season's 27.1 percent which was a slight bump up from 2010's 25.2 percent.

Jackson is swinging at fewer pitches out of the strike zone which is probably key to both improvements. In case you are wondering, Jackson's O-Swing has improved three years running. Jackson attributes his lower strikeouts to not chasing two-strike pitches, which makes a lot of sense. Swinging at better pitches does more than just increase walks and reduce strikeouts. It also allows the batter to make better and more consistent contact. Better contact has likely been a large part of his power increase.

Before the season and in Spring Training, Jackson worked with hitting coach Lloyd McClendon on reducing his high leg kick and shortening his swing. Jackson says this allows him to turn on better fastballs. "I'm extremely pleased by how quickly he adjusted and adapted," McClendon said to the Detroit Free-Press. "And really the credit goes to him because he wanted to do it and he was willing to do it."

The future looks very bright for Austin Jackson. But we can find a few worrisome factors if we try. His BABIP is an extremely high .399 and despite his improved skills and terrific speed is not really sustainable. We can expect at least some regression to his career averages, though that is not as big a drop as we may once have expected. His13.3 HR/FB is not absurdly high except relative to his career 7.1 percentage. There may be some luck in his homerun rate, but again part of this is based on real improvements so it is very difficult to say how much to expect it to decline over the next 12 weeks (if at all).

Just In Case You Do Not Follow Me on Twitter (@bigjonwilliams)

I am writing for a new digital magazine called Big League Monthly. This is not just a fantasy mag, though that is what I write about for them. The magazine includes great interviews with minor leaguers, features on major leaguers - this month that includes Mike Trout, Stephen Strasburg, Chris Sale, Eric Hosmer and others. Please check it out, it is completely free.

Solving Rickie Weeks

Hey Jon,

Thoughts on Rickie Weeks?

Dennis

Hey Dennis,

Weeks has always made mediocre contact and struck out too much. This season he has struggled to make even his usual contact rate. He is swinging at fewer pitches out of the strike zone but is making much worse contact with those pitches. His power has slipped dramatically. The only thing that seems to be going well is drawing walks.

There is little doubt that part of this is Weeks at least initially pressing to justify his new contract. This happens to lots of players. That pressing has led to a huge slump that I am guessing is at least partly mechanical. His BABIP is low, he is hitting lots of infield fly balls. and his HR/FB is lower than usual.

I think there is at least some bad luck involved but I think he needs to get his mind straight before his batting will come together. I can't recommend him at this point. If I owned him I'd like to stash him on the bench if I could and hope for the best. I have him in a league where he is undroppable and I probably would not anyway.

If your league is a shallower one and there are viable options available I could see dropping him at this point. I think this might be an Adam Dunn (2011) season for him. But if your league is deeper I think the chances of Weeks having a big second half are better than say - Ivan DeJesus becoming a fantasy stud.

Good luck Dennis, I hope my ramblings have helped you at least a little.

Fantasy League Re-Enforcements

It is never too late for a plan to come together.

Your draft or auction is only one part of many that make your fantasy season. It is an extremely important part but still just one part. A hardworking owner even in a fairly deep league can recover from a bad draft by diligently working the free agent list and the waiver wire.

You may search your waiver wire on a particular day and see nothing but back-up catchers and utility players but it is not always the case. Players that can help your team become available all the time. It is your job to stay informed and be ready to claim or FAAB them when the opportunity presents itself.

Who are these players that become available during the season? Late signing veterans, older veterans who teams are signing to fill holes created by injuries or ineffectiveness. Sometimes it will be a bench player who gains a larger role on the team. Players returning from long term injuries are another source of talent.

You also need to keep a close eye on the transactions of your fellow owners. Maybe they released a slow starter that can help you. Did they recently activate a player returning from injury or a newly promoted rookie. Who did they release to make roster room.

Here are some players that may be in a position to help you soon.

Johnny Damon - The aging veteran is still capable of a 15/15 season or even 20/20 given health and the right role in the lineup. He should be activated any day now.


Marlon Byrd - In AL-Only leagues, Byrd has just become available. He is starting slow this season and has not been trending well but of you've been hit by one of the recent spat of injuries, you could do a lot worse. He has 20/20 potential and should hit for a better average in Fenway Park.


Freddie Sanchez - This veteran is fragile but an effective hitter when healthy. If he were healthy for an entire season he would capable of batting .300 with a handful of homeruns and steals.

Juan Pierre - He just barely made the team but has steadily gained playing time and is now in the lineup against most right-handed pitchers. He could hit for a decent average and steal 30 bases.

Francisco Cordero - This former closer had been sitting on a lot of waiver wires. With the recent injury to Sergo Santos he should be one of the most frequently claimed players this week.

Jarrod Parker - He almost made the team out of Spring Training. He has been promoted and should be able to keep a spot in the rotation. It is hard to say what a rookie pitcher will do but he has ace potential.

Tyson Ross - Few were familiar with him before this season but Mr. Ross has been an effective pitcher so far this season. Scoop him up if you are in need of quality innings.

Ten Reasons to Stay Patient with Your Fantasy Team

Patience. Slow starts are depressing for fantasy owners but panic ruins fantasy seasons. Often we come out of our drafts excited about our teams. We got this sleeper for that much and won't he be great! Then after three games and 11 at-bats we are ready to cut him to add that career back-up middle infielder. If you drafted a guy I think he deserves at least a full week of at-bats before you cut him.

Omar Infante has three more homers than GianCarlo Stanton. Are you seriously worried that ol' Mike will not blast his 30 homers?

Jason Heyward may not have a great average just yet but he has a hit in two out of three starts and a .333 OBP despite a .200 batting average.

Did Mariano Rivera suddenly forget how to pitch? Lots of closers start slowly because they do not get enough innings in Spring Training. Despite the disaster start to his season, CC Sabathia was thisclose to getting a win anyway.

Alright, so the Oakland Athletics have panicked a little, designating Brandon Allen after less than a week. But how much could you possibly have invested in Allen? Not much I hope. Daric Barton is hardly a massive upgrade in any case.

Sometimes it is not just poor performance but the overwhelming desire to make moves. Maybe you miss out on a hot start or a chance to grab a youngster on the cheap. But with patience you may find that you get the chance to reserve an Allen and pickup a Kirk Nieuwenhuis and own both, rather than lose a slow-starting James Loney for the privilege of rostering Nieuwenhuis for a couple of weeks before he is sent down again.

Remember a week ago when it seemed like Frank Francisco was going to be out of a job before the season even started? Yeah, those three saves have caused a ton of memory loss.

The San Francisco Giants, Atlanta Braves, New York Yankees, and Boston Red Sox will be playoff contenders until the end of the season. No need to give up on their players at this point. Okay, maybe the Red Sox won't be contenders. If you have made a bet on one of the Boston closer possibilities, do not give up on that candidate just yet. The situation is far from clear. i am including Daniel Bard in that conversation.

It looks like the Giants are going to give Brandon Belt a real opportunity this season. Do not over react to his day out of the lineup. The Giants are just getting everyone into the lineup.

Aroldis Chapman is still smokin' hot despite his lack of a real role on the pitching staff. He will force his way into an important role soon enough.

Rafael Furcal is hitting .526 after a horrible spring. It just perfectly illustrates why you cannot allow small sample sizes to rule your thinking. Oh wait, unless you think Furcal is going to hit .500 and steal 146 bases.