Trade Advice: Selling High and Going with Your Gut

Here is the content of a recent e-mail I received from a frequent reader:

Hey Jon,

Sorry it took me so long to get back to you. I drove 16 hours to Chicago to catch the Cubs/Astros 4-gamer. That's not the full truth, though... I also delayed a response due to the shame I felt for going against your advice. I accepted the trade I mentioned in my last email. Don't worry - I paid for it. I was drinking $7 beer at Wrigley when Oswalt was helped off the field in the 2nd inning. It sounds like he's heading for the DL, too... yippee.

OK, so here's a quickie: Who would you rather own, Carlos Pena or Jason Bartlett? I'm pretty torn. Pena's batting average annoys me, but I feel like Bartlett is a good sell-high candidate. It seems inevitable that his power numbers decline... in fact, this seems to have already begun. Bartlett does, though, give you BA, Runs, & SB while providing decent HR & RBI numbers for his position.

Like I said, I'm torn. The reason I ask is I plan to trade 1 of the 2 for a closer. I've picked up Carlos Guillen to fill the void. This will probably change based on matchup. Well, thanks again for all the advice. Maybe this time I will listen. And, as always, if you're short on time, no worries. I've been keeping afloat for this long... just need to get healthy. Have a good one, Robert

Hey Robert,

No need to feel shame, I'm just offering second opinions here. I say all the time that you sometimes have to follow your gut in fantasy sports. You won't always be right but at least you won't feel the pangs of regret from not doing something that felt right to you.

I wish I could get away for a day to drive to other stadiums. I haven't been on a vacation in a long time, even of the one or two day variety. I'm in Cambridge, Massachusetts so it's Fenway Park or nothing most of the time.

In a vacuum I prefer players that hit for average and steal bases over low-average sluggers. So, I guess that puts me in the Bartlett camp. I actually like both guys to be productive if not stellar players over the balance of the season. Pena swings and misses a lot which leads to a lot of bad streaks where he offers very very little. Bartlett has some on-base skills. He takes a few walks and steals bases even when he isn't exactly tearing the cover off the ball.

A lot of owners misunderstand what the idea of selling high is about.. The purpose is to get maximum value for a player that is not likely to repeat his peak performance, which gives your team a steady production at a very high level. This does not necessarily mean that the player will become worthless at some point. Sometimes a good sell-high player is also a pretty good keeper. For example, Cliff Lee in 2008 was performing at a level that no one expected he could continue given his track record and skills. But if you owned Lee for a reasonable price he was worth keeping even if you expected a 20 percent decline.. Sure enough Lee was worth keeping for everyone that owned him in 2009. Though I expect there are more than a few AL-only guys banging their heads against a wall.

Good luck Robert.

Jon Williams
Advanced Fantasy Baseball

The Trades onTrade Deadline Day

I'm going to keep updating this post with the trades that have happened and that will happen throughout the day. With a brief (basically gut feelings before all the facts are in)analysis of the moves and the players involved. So please keep checking this space for the latest fantasy spins.

White Sox finally get Jake Peavy
Kenny Williams finally gets his ace, Jake Peavy for LHP Aaron Poreda, LHP Clayton Richards, RHP Adam Russell, and RHP Dexter Carter. There was a decent chance that Peavy would not pitch again this season if he remained a Padre but he is now headed to rehab and the White Sox think there is an outside chance he is ready to join them by mid-August. There was never anything wrong with his arm it was always an ankle injury keeping him out, so if the ankle if fine there should not be much to worry about. Peavy goes from the best park in baseball for pitchers to an American League hitter's park.

Peavy is an above average starter that looked like a dominate number one pitching in Petco Park. He shouldn't turn into a disaster in Chicago but do not expect him to be much more than a solid starter. The White Sox are not overly concerned with how Peavy performs this season and if he missed the rest of the season it would not overly concern them. Peavy is part of the plan for the 2010 White Sox rotation, this season is all gravy for them.

The Padres received an excellent collection of arms. Aaron Poreda and Clayton Richards should both join the major league rotation very soon. Pitching in Petco should be very good for their performances. Fantasy owners should swoop them up as soon as possible.

Marlins have acquired first baseman Nick Johnson
The Marlins at the very last minute agreed to the demands of the Washington Nationals and acquired first baseman Nick Johnson for the Nationals for Class AA left-hander Aaron Thompson and agreed to pay most of his salary. Johnson forces Jorge Cantu back to third base. Emilio Bonafacio and Chris Coghlan will share time in left field as a result. Though Johnson has a reputation as injury prone he has not been the disabled list this season and has been very productive, moving to Florida should not change that by any significant degree.

Aaron Thompson was a first round draft pick in 2005. He has a solid fastball, curve, and change-up but needs to work on being more consistent with his delivery. He could be a very solid mid-rotation starter for a good team or a high quality relief pitcher. He could be in the majors next season or even this season given the state of the National's bullpen.

Reds acquire Scott Rolen
The Reds acquired veteran third baseman Scott Rolen from the Toronto Blue Jays by sending them third baseman Edwin Encarnacion and RHPs Josh Roenicke and Zach Stewart. Rolen returns to the USA in an area he considers very close to home. The Reds are looking for some veteran stability, leadership and production. The Reds also very clearly gave up on Edwin Encarnacion. The Blue Jays are obviously hoping that EE will rediscover the potential that has faded over the last two seasons. Injuries have certainly been a part of Encarnacion's downfall but he also needs to make serious progress in plate discipline.

Rockies acquire Joe Beimel
The Acquire LHP Joe Beimel from Nationals for RHP Ryan Mattheus and RHP Robinson Fabian, both minor leaguers. Mattheus has some potential as a reliever but still has some improvement to make with his control and stamina after he returns from Tommy John Surgery. Fabian is 23-years old and still in single-A. Beimel is a solid reliever but has no shot at the closer role in Colorado.

New York Yankees acquire Jerry Hairston
There were totally ridiculous rumors that the Yanks were sending top prospect Austin Jackson but they finally sent minor league catcher Chase Weems for INF/OF Jerry Hairston. Weems was a sixth round pick in the 2007 draft. He has a long way to go with the bat before he enters the fantasy league radar. Jerry Hairston is a solid replacement for the injured Brett Gardner. Hairston is a versatile player with speed and some plate skills. He can defend adequately at shortstop, second base or center field. He should get meaningful at-bats with the Yankees so he is worth a moderate FAAB bid.

Blue Jays get Sean Smith from Pirates

Braves Acquire Adam LaRoche
The Red Sox get back another first baseman in Casey Kotchman. The Red Sox just felt that Kotchman was better suited to waiting around on the bench for the blue moon he gets to play under. Adam LaRoche becomes a fulltime payer again in a much improved offense. He should draw a significant FAAB bid.

Red Sox acquire Victor Martinez
The Red Sox sent RHP Justin Masterson, LHP Nick Hagedone, and RHP Bryan Price to the Cleveland Indians for C/1B Victor Martinez. Victor Martinez gives the Red Sox the ability to rest both catcher Jason Varitek and third baseman Mike Lowell while also improving the lineup. Martinez should see a boost in productivity playing for the Red Sox who have a better lineup (even if it is slumping right now). For those in keeper leagues my gut feeling is that Martinez will spend 2010 splitting time between first base and catcher. Varitek will probably be back in 2010 but as a part-time player which would actually be very good for his production. Mike Lowell is likely to be somewhere else with Youkilis moving to third base. One of the plethora of first baseman in the Red Sox organization will take on the other portion of at-bats at first base.

The Indians get a nice collection of arms in exchange. I think this is by far the best trade the Tribe has made this season, even if I think trading Martinez was pretty stupid but if GM Mark Shapiro wants to rebuild, more power to him. Justin Masterson will jump right into the rotation and he should be a good one. He gets the strikeouts and groundballs that we like to see in starting pitchers. fangraphs compares him to Gil Meche and I think that fits. The other arms probably won't be seen in the majors this year but offer the potential to become mid-rotation guys.

Twins acquire Orlando Cabrera
According to Bob Nightengale the Twins are sending Twins get Orlando Cabrera for minor league shortstop Tyler Ladendorf. Landendorf was selected in the second round of the 2008 draft. He has very good power for a shortstop but has struggled with his plate discipline and making solid contact. But he has the tools to be a very good hitter. This is the Oakland Athletics buying low on a prospect.

http://joshsopinion.blogspot.com/2009/01/top-50-twins-prospects-2009-33-tyler.html

Orlando Cabrera has gotten old in a hurry but still has what it takes to help a contending team down the stretch. The Twins will use him everyday so there is no need for present owners to concern themselves much with his new situation. In fact his new team's home stadium should be less of a drain on his numbers than Oakland's.

Tigers Acquire Jarrod Washburn
The Mariners have traded starter Jarrod Washburn (who seems to have been a secondary target for many teams) for minor league pitchers Luke French and Mauricio Robles. Robles was the Tigers' #24 prospect in the 2009 Baseball America Prospect Handbook. Robles is very young with good to excellent stuff depending on which reports you believe. French is 24-years old and one of those very good control, mediocre strikeout, groundball type of pitcher that is often ignored by major league teams until they turn into Chien-Ming Wang.

Washburn is what he is. He leaves one of the better pitcher's parks in the American League and one of the better defensive teams for a closer to neutral park and a still solid defensive team. He should continue to produce for the Tigers.

The Dodgers acquire closer George Sherrill
In a move I did not think would happen the Orioles parted with closer George Sherrill for two minor leaguers: 3B Josh Bell and RHP Steve Johnson. Josh Bell was the Dodgers #8 prospect and was touted as having the best raw power in their system by Baseball America. He becomes the future at third base for the Orioles. Steve Johnson is the son of former big leaguer Dave Johnson and formerly the Dodgers #15 prospect. He has improving stuff and gets strikeouts in bunches. If he can improve his control he could have a solid future in the majors.

Sherrill gives the Dodgers an excellent left-handed reliever and insurance for Jonathan Broxton. The Dodgers bullpen has been pretty mangled by Joe Torre (that's what he does to relievers) and the fresh arm should prove to be a vitally important addition. He is worth a moderate FAAB bid in NL-only leagues as he will probably see the occasional save.

The Cubs acquire Starter Tom Gorzelanny and reliever John Grabow
The Pittsburgh Pirates are truly committed to trading everyone that will not have a part in their next playoff team. Although it seems that the Pirates have been rebuilding for years, the truth is they never made the commitment to trading to rebuild the team. It was always a salary dump here and a free agent dump there. The Pirates received prospects Kevin Hart, Jose Ascanio, and Josh Harrison in return. As in most of the trades they have made of late they have preferred quantity to quality. But I am starting to see the method in their madness. By loading up their system with B and C prospects they give themselves multiple options at every position. They have an endless supply of potential relievers and mid-rotation guys. If the Pirates can draft a few A prospects and sign a top free-agent or two they will be well on their way back to the glory days.

General manager Neal Huntington says that Friday (today) he will call up outfielder Lastings Milledge and start a regular outfield of Garrett Jones, Andrew McCutchen and Milledge for the balance of the season. Don't be surprised if the Pirates give time at second base to Delwyn Young who has been a solid bat since coming to the Pirates.

Tom Gorzelanny has flashed his potential on a regular basis and the Cubs have added him to the 25-man roster. He should get innings but is obviously a risk for any fantasy owner in a chase for a championship. John Grabow on the other hand is an excellent reliever and should prove very valuable to the Cubs.

The Kansas City Royals acquired Josh Anderson
The Royals needed an outfielder about as badly as a team could need one. The Royals sent cash considerations to the Tigers for the speedy Josh Anderson. Anderson should get a lot more at-bats with the Royals and steal some bases. He is very much worth owning in AL-Leagues and anyone looking for steals should consider him.

Pittsburgh Pirates traded 2B Freddy Sanchez to San Francisco Giants

Seattle Mariners traded LF Wladimir Balentien to Cincinnati Reds for RHP Robert Manuel.

Seattle Mariners traded 1B Jeff Clement, SS Ronny Cedeno and RHP Nathan Adcock RHP Aaron Pribanic and RHP Brett Lorin to Pittsburgh Pirates for RHP Ian Snell and SS Jack Wilson

Cleveland Indians traded Cliff Lee and Ben Francisco to Philadelphia Phillies.

Cleveland Indians traded 1B Ryan Garko to San Francisco Giants.

Oakland Athletics traded LF Matt Holliday to St. Louis Cardinals.

Cleveland Indians traded RHP Rafael Betancourt to Colorado Rockies and Modesto Nuts traded RHP Connor Graham to Indians Organization.

Boston Red Sox traded Julio Lugo to St. Louis Cardinals.

Pittsburgh Pirates traded 1B Adam LaRoche to Boston Red Sox; Boston Red Sox traded SS Argenis Diaz to Pittsburgh Pirates and Greenville Drive traded RHP Hunter Strickland to West Virginia Power.

FanDuel - Fast Head-to-Head Fantasy Sports

Anyone who enjoys fantasy baseball or football should be interested in FanDuel.com, a relatively new site offering short-term fantasy games for cash prizes. I was allowed to try out the system before the official launch last week. I loved it. If you think you're good at fantasy baseball and you'd like to go up against me just sign up and challenge me. This should be a lot of fun.

1. What separates FanDuel from other online fantasy sports games?

FanDuel lets us play and win in a day instead of waiting the whole season. Players can draft a new team at any time, and pitch it head-to-head against an opponent – a friend, or another FanDuel player – for real money. The player whose team has the most fantasy points at the end of the day’s games wins the cash prize.

2. Do you believe that this is the direction the fantasy sports industry is going (short-term games) or is this meant to be different from traditional Fantasy Baseball the way Texas Hang 'Em is different than Five Card Stud?

I don’t really think short term and long term fantasy games compete with each other however I do think there is a huge unmet demand for short term fantasy games. I expect that most people who start playing short term games will continue to play their existing season long game. Most fantasy players we speak to like to play in several leagues and the opportunity to pick up and play something without the season long commitment is very appealing to them.

3. Right now you offer a free game as well as $5, $10, and $25 games. Do you plan to offer higher stakes games in the future?

Yes, definitely. We are slowly introducing higher entry fee games as users demand them.

4. The TechCrunch.com article emphasizes the social media aspects of the game. Is FanDuel meant to be a social media experience with gamers communicating with each other being almost as important as the game itself?

We think player to player communication will be very important. In our previous product, Hubdub (which is a news prediction game), the community and inter-player communication was very important so we introduced commenting, forums, shouts, challenges and other ways of communicating. However we are cautious about introducing too much functionality too quickly so we are going to work with the users to see what communication tools they think will be most fun before introducing them.

5. You offer Fantasy Baseball, and Fantasy Football is lauching soon. Do you see FanDuel breaking into other Fantasy Sports such as Basketball, Golf, and Nascar?

Absolutely. After fantasy baseball and fantasy football we think that basketball and hockey will be our priorities. After that we are going to really go with where we feel there is user demand.

6. Is there a mobile phone version of the game available?

FanDuel can already be played on the iPhone however it is still a bit fiddly on the small screen. We are planning to release a mobile optimized version of the site later this year.

7. I love that you can connect to Facebook and Twitter to send out challenges. Are there plans to add Facebook-like friend lists to the site?

We definitely want our users to be able to connect with their friends more easily which is why we are planning a much deeper integration with Facebook and Twitter. We also want people to be able to connect up and challenge other players on site more easily as well and are working on some features to allow that. What we are being careful to avoid is to ask users to build a whole new friends list on FanDuel.

8. Why should anyone reading this sign up at FanDuel?

FanDuel offers a great way to show your friends and others who knows they most about fantasy baseball and football. Plus you can put your knowledge to good use by winning cash on our daily games. Remember there is no season long commitment and we even throw in a free $10 sign-up bonus when you make your first deposit.

Check out our fantasy baseball here: www.fanduel.com/fantasybaseball

I want to thank Nigel from FanDuel.com for consenting to this interview.

Matt Holliday Traded to St. Louis Cardinals

The Oakland Athletics have decided to trade outfielder Matt Holliday to the St. Louis Cardinals for a collection of prospects including third baseman Brett Wallace, outfielder Shane Peterson, and right-hander Clayton Mortensen. These prospects are all worthy of attention in AL-only leagues but Brett Wallace is a prospect I expect to be a very special hitter. The Cardinals knew they had a potentially special hitter in Wallace but since they were extremely reluctant to play him at third base (and some other guy is at first base) it seemed pretty obvious they would eventually deal him.

Matt Holliday has been a much better hitter this month than for most of the first half, batting .344 with a .421 on-base percentage in July. His season totals are just a little worse than I expected out of Coors Field. He has batted .286 with 11 homers and 12 stolen bases in the first half. I expected closer to .300 with about 20-22 homers on the season with 20-25 stolen bases which would be about what he averaged on the road the last few seasons. Basically Holliday has been the same player but he is hitting more fly balls, mostly of the infield variety which has reduced his BABIP and this his batting average. This may be something that Holliday has corrected in his swing but it could also be just a fortunate streak. Either way Holliday is still a very good player that should be owned in fantasy leagues of all types and sizes. In NL-only leagues he is worth a significant FAAB bid.

Holliday will play every day in left field. The big loser in playing time will be Rick Ankiel who will probably steal a few at-bats from Colby Rasmus but will mostly be relegated to fourth outfielder status. Ryan Ludwick (who is blistering hot lately) will remain the every day outfielder in right field. The more interesting question is in the infield. The Cardinals recently acquired Julio Lugo who will almost certainly start against lefties at either shortstop or second base. They also just got Mark DeRosa back from the disabled list. DeRosa could play any of the infield position but is most likely to play third base until Troy Glaus comes back. Glaus could be back in a matter of days which would push DeRosa to second base and Skip Schumaker to the bench. It should be interesting to see how it all falls out.

Reader Advice: Is Miguel Montero Really Wally-Pipping Chris Snyder?

Miguel Montero has been really hot lately (4HR and .406 in last 8 games ... 32AB). He's available in my 10 team H2H keeper league that uses OBP instead of Avg. He's certainly been better than my Chris Ianetta (1HR, .267 in last 9 games).

1. Is Montero for real?
2. What happens when Chris Snyder returns?
3. Who should I drop?
   

My Roster:

C=Ianetta

1B/CI/3B=Fielder, Berkman, Mig.Cabrera

2B/MI/SS=Utley, Kinsler, Hardy

LF/CF/RF/OF/OF=Bay, Sizemore, N.Cruz, Crawford, Victorino

Util=Thome

SP(4)=Johan, Josh Johnson, Vazquez, Kuroda

P(3)=Jer.Weaver, Edw.Jackson, Lester

RP(4)=Fuentes, Soria, Qualls, Lidge

Bench= Theriot, Hart, Ludwick, S.Baker, Valverde, Wuertz

DL=Webb, T.Hudson, Kuo, K.Johnson, Beltre

Thanks in advance!

Big Mike

Hey Mike,

1. I like Montero, I always have. He's 26-years old and has previously demonstrated the ability to be a strong hitter at the catcher position. His walk and strikeout rates are consistent with his previous skill levels. He has begun to hit more groundballs and fewer fly balls which explains his higher batting average. Groundballs fall for hits more often than fly balls. His power is about the same as always thanks to a career-high HR/FB ratio (nothing outrageous just a few points higher than usual). He's for real. In a full-time role I would expect him to hit around .270-.275 with 10-12 home runs.

2. The D'Backs have always preferred to split their catcher at-bats with Montero receiving about a third of them. Chris Snyder is out with a back injury. Back injuries always have to be taken very seriously especially when playing such a physically demanding position. I can see the team using a more even 50/50 split when Snyder returns. Though any player who can return from fractured testicles has to get the benefit of the doubt when his toughness is in question. Both players are similar defensively (by RF/9) over the last couple of seasons so their production with the bat is more important than it would be if one were significantly better than the other. Montero seems clearly the more skilled hitter in my opinion Snyder takes more walks but strikes out more often and has less power.

3. I would drop Mike Wuertz. With your collection of closers he is very unnecessary.

Understanding Slumps and Hot Streaks

Dave Cameron of USS Mariner and Fangraphs.com has posted an article that should be must reading for fantasy owners. He shows how to use BABIP and explains regression to the mean. If you have had trouble understanding these concepts or would just like to understand a little better, I recommend you read this article.

Explaining Away Regression To The Mean

Odds are you’ve read a story lately about how Russell Branyan is struggling as he reaches the summer of his first season as a full-time player. After a monstrous first half, he’s not hitting as well lately, and the explanations are pouring in. He’s tired. His back hurts. Pitchers are figuring him out. Managers have figured out how to shift against him and he hasn’t adjusted. If you’re looking for a reason for Branyan’s struggles, you have a buffet of choices to blame them on.

Of course, there’s a simpler explanation – it’s just natural regression to the mean.

In April, Branyan posted a .405 batting average on balls in play. In May, it was .391. These are outrageously high totals that nobody in history has been able to sustain, much less a first baseman whose hardest hit balls end up in the seats. There was basically no chance that he’d be able to continue getting balls in play to find a hole 39% of the time. We talked about this quite a bit, warning that regression was coming. A guy who strikes out as much as Branyan does can’t hit .300. It’s almost impossible.

The Aftermath of Your Trades and FAAB Signings

If there is a lesson we can all take from the Royals and general manager Dayton Moore it is to believe in yourself and the moves you make. You will make mistakes. It is inevitable that even the best owners will sometimes make a screwy transaction. The key to learn from your mistakes. That said, just because others believe you have made a mistake does not mean that you actually have.

Not every trade looks brilliant on the surface. In fact good owners will often make deals that to others will look strange and uneven at best. This is usually because you're looking ahead and they are looking back. This is especially true in keeper leagues. A year ago trading for Scott Downs and Phil Hughes while signing Nelson Cruz may have seemed a little odd unless you were paying attention to what the Toronto Blue Jays, New York Yankees and Texas Rangers were saying about each player and their future roles.

By the same token, moves that look great can often result in disaster. Maybe this time last year you thought that trading Diamondbacks outfielder Justin Upton for Carlos Gomez was a good move for your rebuilding team. You could have cut your one dollar Russell Branyan to take a shot at Jeff Clement. As Dayton Moore would tell you it isn't always about the numbers (this is not to say you should emulate Moore and just ignore them) you can learn a lot just by paying attention and not following the crowd.

Do not let anyone make you feel bad about a move you feel good about making. If you have sound reasons for going against the current then go ahead and do it. You will not always be right but you may be surprised how often you end up being right.