New articles are up at Crucial Taunt and Roto Experts. The new Moving Up, Moving Down can be found on rotoexperts.com right here and the new Crystal Ball can be found here on CrucialSports.com.
Moving Up this week relates the new Iron Man movie to the St. Louis Cardinals. You'll have to read it to find out how I pulled that off. The new Crystal Ball makes some predictions about the Cincinnati Reds now that they've fired General Manager Wayne Krivsky.
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
Sunday, April 20, 2008
Check This Out:
I have pieces on Rotoexperts.com and CrucialTaunt.com this week. You can find my weekly Moving Up, Moving Down column on rotoexperts.com once a week (usually on Tuesday) and my weekly Crystal Ball coulumn on CrucialTaunt.com once a week on Fridays. Please check them out, send your friends, make some comments and check out the other great articles these two sites have to offer.
This week (as it will every week) Moving Up, Moving Down examines the performance of a ton of players off to either fast or slow starts and examines their potential to turn things around whether that would be for the bad or the good. This week features: Andruw Jones, Joey Votto, Nate McLouth and tons more.
The Crystal Ball takes a look at the St. Louis Cardinals and their potential to maintain their quick start. It's a ton of fun and you also get to see my very tongue-in-cheek predictions for the season awards.
This week (as it will every week) Moving Up, Moving Down examines the performance of a ton of players off to either fast or slow starts and examines their potential to turn things around whether that would be for the bad or the good. This week features: Andruw Jones, Joey Votto, Nate McLouth and tons more.
The Crystal Ball takes a look at the St. Louis Cardinals and their potential to maintain their quick start. It's a ton of fun and you also get to see my very tongue-in-cheek predictions for the season awards.
Saturday, April 12, 2008
Joey Votto: Be Warned!!
Many don't seem to realize it but there are dozens of great minor leaguers who never get the opportunity to prove they could have been stars in the majors. This can be the result of any number of things but most commonly it is injuries, faith-lacking managers and failed (and short) auditions that are the root-cause. One such player in my eyes was Bobby Hill, a shortstop prospect for the Chicago Cubs. He was a stud at the University of Miami. He held out for major bucks after being drafted first by the White Sox and then by the Cubs. He made quick work of the minors but had the unfortunate luck of running into Dusty Baker as his first manager. Baker gave him only short and sporadic opportunities to prove himself and when he failed to make an impression quickly he was banished to the bench once more.
Dusty Baker so negatively shaped the reputation of this player that he was included in a horrible trade to the Pirates. The Pirates refused to use him as anything other than a utility infielder and sparingly at that. Despite statistically being a better player than both Jose Castillo and Jack Wilson, Hill was never given another chance as a starter. Injuries to his back limited him in recent years. He hasn't appeared in the majors since 2006 after just 523 major league at-bats. Now he is playing with the Newark Bears of the Independent League.
You're probably wondering why I would spend so much space bemoaning the fate of a player that few will remember. The reason is because it could very well be happening again. Joey Votto is a highly touted young player who can perform at both the outfield and first base positions. He is a power hitter with speed that reminds me more and more everyday of Matt Holliday of the Colorado Rockies. He was widely expected to become the starting first baseman for the Cincinnati Reds this season but then something terrible happened - Dusty Baker was hired as manager. Now Votto sits on the bench and watches 38-year old Scott Hatteberg continue to start and to hit with almost zero authority. I sincerely hope to be wrong about this but if I were a Votto owner I would trade him in the best deal I possibly could right now. Before he meets a Hillish fate.
Longoria is a Major Leaguer
It stunned everyone when Evan Longoria was sent to the minors after a Spring Training in which he was considered a lock to make the team. Personally while I was surprised he hadn't made the team I didn't necessarily think it was a bad move. Longoria although capable had nothing to lose by spending a few weeks at Triple-A.
Well now Longoria is in the major just two weeks later to replace Willy Aybar on the roster. Here's my bet that he never sees the minors again.
| Year | Age* | Lg | Tm | G | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | SB | CS | BB | SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| 2006 | 20 | A | A | 28 | 110 | 36 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 28 | 22 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 19 | .327 | .402 | .618 | 1.020 |
| 2006 | 20 | AA | MON | 26 | 105 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 19 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 20 | .267 | .266 | .486 | .752 |
| 2007 | 21 | AA | MON | 105 | 381 | 117 | 21 | 0 | 21 | 76 | 78 | 4 | 0 | 51 | 81 | .307 | .403 | .528 | .931 |
| 2007 | 21 | AAA | DUR | 31 | 104 | 28 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 29 | .269 | .398 | .490 | .888 |
| 2008 | 22 | AAA | DUR | 7 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | .200 | .333 | .200 | .533 |
| 2008 | 22 | MAJ | TAM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
Thursday, April 10, 2008
Guys I Like (and that you should too) in the National League
Hey, just because the season has started is no reason not to tell you about the guys i targeted in my drafts and auctions this year.
Last year in the National League I targeted Josh Hamilton and I got him in my NL-only league only to lose him when the Reds traded him for Edison Volquez. I raved about Heath Bell but for some reason picked him up as a reserve instead of making him my last $1 pitcher. In my league reserves can't be kept. I targeted Kelly Johnson and traded Jonathan Sanchez (who couldn't be kept beyond the 2007 season) for a $1 Johnson.
This year in the NL I thought I would grab Eugenio Velez for a buck but the Spring Traiing hype machine pushed him to $15 in NL-only. I still got him because I believe that he will eventually win the full-time second base job. In the meanwhile he'll play all over the field and steal 25 bases.
I also targeted Johnny Cueto and Edison Volquez. I didn't get either because I refused to pay the price they demanded ($15 and $10) at the moment they came up in my auction. I still believe that both will be solid major league starters for your fantasy team this year. I don't think they'll continue to be as untouchable as they've looked in the Spring and thus far this season but still quite valuable for those of you in keeper leagues. If you have them in a re-draft league I recommend you trade them by the end of May.
In the outfield I tried to trade for Lastings Milledge and Nate McLouth (at $5a and $2) but I was only able to get McLouth from him. I think both will be awesome players this season. Milledge has the ability to develop into a 30/30 type of player. This season I wouldn't count on more than 15/20 but the rest is coming soon. McLouth is a guy that I drafted for my minor league system a long long long time ago and then gave up on him. Actually I gave up on the Pirates, but same difference. McLouth has some on-base skills that have been quietly improving and pretty good speed on the bases. I'm expecting 15/25 this season and maybe a 20/40 peak season.
Next up? American League targets...
2008 Season Kick Off (and I'm not dead)
I'm sure anyone that is still reading this blog has long since stopped looking for great advice to bring into your draft or auction. But I did help out a bit last season. I was ine of the very few touting Heath Bell as a great late round pick. I raved about the opportunity to grab Kelly Johnson who would be the new Braves second baseman. Sure, I also thought Darin Erstad would be worth a buck but more often than not I was helping.
You knew that Erstad thing was just a joke post, right?
You knew that Erstad thing was just a joke post, right?
Tuesday, April 17, 2007
Injury Updates
I write a weekly column on Sportsblurb.com that covers baseball injuries. I'm going to start highlighting bits of the articles here in hopes that you will start to frequent both sites. Here is a sample from last week's article:
I won’t ask for a show of hands because I am certain you have all missed me lots. Finally baseball has returned a city near you and players are going down at a record pace. For those new to the game in this space once a week we will review each teams injury situation and do our best to give your fantasy team an edge on the competition. I am no doctor as much as my mother may wish it were so (my wallet wishes with her by the way) but I am the master googler and no one spends more time reading the small notes at the ends of hundreds of articles the way I do. If you have the patience to read as many articles as I do than you are probably a doctor that had no problem memorizing the names of all those bones... But in any case I’m here to do most of the legwork for you and remind you of what you might already know.
What some of you may already know is that I’m a huge supporter of drafting and acquiring the frequently injured who are not injured at the moment. Why? The primary reason is that the better players that fit in the frequently injured category can often be had for much less than full value. Chances are the owners of Nomar Garciaparra and Ken Griffey Jr. are already nervous and ready to sell. I say pounce. The guy that drafted Darin Erstad is pretty happy with things right now I’m betting, how much do you think he paid? That guy knows that it pays to keep up with the status of the injured and the frequently injured and since that’s what you’re here for I won’t make you wait any longer.
American League East
Jaret Wright wasted no time resuming his career as a disabled pitcher. It is a shoulder injury so it is a serious one and he will be out indefinitely. Wright is the type of guy that dissuades folks from messing around with the injured guys. I am here to tell you that I cross pitchers with sore shoulders off my list until they prove to be well past such things. Wright has been off the list for years now.
Ramon Hernandez is on the disabled list with a strained oblique which is a bad injury for a catcher or a pitcher as they muscles come into play with every throw or pitch. Fortunately, if the injury is given sufficient time to heal that is all that is necessary to make a full recovery. It seems obvious that the Orioles will give Hernandez that time. He should be able to return by late April or early May.
He was brought in to play left field but instead has manned the disabled list thus far this season. Jay Payton has a strained hamstring and will be out until late April at least. He should make a full recovery since base stealing isn’t really his thing anyway. He should begin playing in extended spring training games fairly soon.
And of course Kris Benson is on the disabled list and out for the season after having shoulder surgery to repair a torn rotator cuff. Last season that Benson for John Maine and Jorge Julio trade looked pretty bad, this season with Julio having been traded for former top prospect Yusmiero Petit and with
Jon Lester did not want to be placed on the disabled list or be sent to the minors. Lester felt he was already recovered from the effects of his chemotherapy and was ready to pitch in the majors. I think Lester’s assessment of his own health and readiness was right on but the Red Sox are slow to adapt when situations change. The Red Sox never expected to sign Daisuke Matsuzaka they were merely trying to block him from the New York Yankees which was probably a solid strategy. But when Scott Boras seemed almost reasonable they ended up signing him to a very good deal for the team if you consider what top starters are earning nowadays. With Dice-K in hand their plan to move Jon Papelbon to the rotation was largely unnecessary - the shoulder problem was just a convenient excuse, don’t be fooled. But having presented the excuse they felt the need to draw it out until they looked just plain stupid not to put Papelbon back in the closer role. What does this have to do with Lester’s situation? Well the weak Red Sox bullpen could have been strengthened considerably just by moving Lester to the bullpen for a few months until a spot in the rotation opened up, hell he would have been a better closer candidate than most of the guys the Red Sox were messing around with. Even now he would provide a strong middle innings lefty reliever better than anything on their roster right now.
Matt Clement is on the disabled list following shoulder surgery and is unlikely to return before July or August of he returns at all. I don’t think he will.
With the exception of Kei Igawa every one of the Yankees projected starters has been injured already this season. Andy Pettitte has already returned from his sore back and pitched six strong innings against the
The replacement starters are even going down in
Hideki Matsui has a sore hamstring and was placed on the disabled list last week. He is eligible to return on April 23rd and most reports have the Yankees activating him on that date and returning my boy Kevin Thompson to the minors rather than dropping a dead weight like Miguel Cairo instead. Like the obliques described above hamstring strains if allowed to rest long enough will usually heal nicely without much in the way of treatment. Matsui is already hitting off a batting tee and probably isn’t taking enough time off. He may be gimpy all season as a result. Matsui isn’t really that reliant on his legs for speed but it could diminish his power if he is more sore than he lets on.
Greg Norton (I initially wrote Ken Norton which is sort of amusing) has a torn meniscus in his right knee and will be out at least four to six weeks after his surgery which is schedule for this coming Monday. This will win more at-bats for the wide array of prospects and once-weres that populate the bench in
Jon Switzer who I sort of liked as a prospect at one point is on the 60-day disabled list and is not going to return anytime soon apparently. He is reported to have shoulder tendonitis which would seem to take two months to get over but that’s what he will be getting.
The Blue Jays have another pitching staff decimated by injuries. Brandon League is on the disabled list with a partially torn rotator cuff and isn’t likely to have much impact this season. He is now the closer of the very distant future. John Thompson has sore shoulder which isn’t much of a surprise and has no return date scheduled. With pitching prospect Dustin McGowan showing skills again it may never happen.
Outfielder Adam Lind was finally recalled from the minors when Reed Johnson hit the disabled list with a herniated disc in his back. This is one of those injuries that could bother him for the next two years or go away after two weeks rest. Pick up Lind if possible he is the real deal and an upgrade from Johnson in my opinion.
Troy Glaus is already in mid-season form with both a sore heel and a cranky hamstring. The Jays are giving him a couple of days but he’d probably be better off with a week.
American League Central
Watch me jinx the Chi-Sox... The White Sox have significant injuries. Catcher Toby Hall is on the disabled list with a sore shoulder but is already throwing and could return in a week or two.
Victor Martinez should be able to play this week after missing a few games with a sore quadriceps muscle. He’ll likely be eased back slowly as the designated hitter or at first base which will allow Kelly Shoppach to get a few more at-bats while robbing Ryan Garko of his.
Left-hander Cliff Lee is already making rehab starts and could return in a week or so depending on his effectiveness. He and reliever Matt Miller who is out with a strained right forearm should be back on the
Roman Colon is out of options so if his rehab doesn’t go well he could be released rather than return to the Tigers.
Catcher Vance Wilson is out with an injured right elbow and will miss about a month.
The 55 million dollar man has a tight hamstring. Gil Meche is not expected to miss a start but I thought you would want to know. I’m helpful that way.
Open another tab right now and see if Joakim Soria is available in your league. If he is pick him up especially if you were counting on Octavio Dotel for saves. Dotel will probably get his job back when the time comes but that may not be for quite a while. Dotel has a strained oblique and while he was expected to return quickly he hasn’t really made any progress, in the meanwhile manager Buddy Bell is falling in love with Soria.
Starters Luke Hudson and Scott Elarton are both still expected to play a large role in the Royals rotation this season.
John Bale and Joe Nelson figured to be a big part of the
Jeff Cirillo was a favorite of mine to take over the third base job from Nick Punto. I know Punto has his fans and defenders but I just don’t see his continued success. Unfortunately arthroscopic surgery on his will keep him out at least four to six weeks. He could be out until late May or early June in a worst case scenario. The Twins did call up Alexi Casilla who could be the starting second baseman next season and makes a most excellent pickup in deeper keeper leagues this season.
Outfielders Lew Ford and Rondell White have hit the 15-day disabled list already forcing the Twins to utilize Josh Rabe and Jason Tyner much earlier and much more often than expected. Ford had surgery to repair torn cartilage in his right knee and will miss a month at least. White has a strained right calf and while it isn’t serious White is a notorious slow healer.
I am so happy to have drafted Francisco Liriano in my primary AL-only keeper league for a mere $8. I figure I’ve got an ace locked up for several years, after he spends this one in the disabled list that is. Technically, Liriano could probably return late this season in say August but the Twins will do the right thing and give him the whole season off and use the winter to get him in shape for 2008.
American League West
The Angels haven’t developed any luck along with all their premium prospects. Bartolo Colon is rehabbing well and should be able to return in a couple of weeks. Unfortunately Jered Weaver was forced to start the season on the disabled list with bicep tendonitis. Weaver is scheduled to return on Monday against the Red Sox but that won’t help as much as it should since Kelvim Escobar has shoulder irritation and has been placed on the disabled list as a result. Dustin Moseley and Joe Saunders will hang around to fill the gaps until things stabilize.
You already know that outfielder Juan Rivera broke his leg this winter and that Chone Figgins joined him on the disabled list this spring with fractures in his fingers. Recent x-rays show he is progressing nicely and he has started swinging. He is expected to have at least a short rehab stint but should return pretty quickly.
Former third base prospect Dallas McPherson had back surgery in January and will probably miss the entire season. It is kinda sad how far he has dropped off the radar of most fans.
Center fielder Milton Bradley is day-to-day with a sore left hamstring. He isn’t expected to miss much time but game-boy is one of those guys that tend to irritate owners year after year. Todd Walker has been getting playing time as a result of Bradley’s injuries. The situation is all the worse with Mark Kotsay out until July after pre-season back surgery.
Dan Johnson may have squandered his best opportunity to redeem himself in the eyes of
Esteban Loaiza’s sore neck is still bothering him and when he will return is a mystery at this point. I hope you aren’t counting on him for much.
Arthur Rhodes has a tear in his UCL but expects to return soon and pitch with it anyway. Don’t believe it for a second. He is going down it is just a matter of time .His bullpen buddy Mark Lowe has had his second elbow surgery and will be out until at least July and should not be bothered with until next season at the soonest.
John Rheinecker is on the 15-day disabled list with a strained back but will probably end up in the minors when he returns. Jamey Wright’s injury has probably lost him his fifth starter job for the season. Wright has right shoulder inflammation and will miss at least a couple of weeks. Pick up Kameron Loe; he’s the man you want if you’re searching for a
National League East
Hopefully you pocketed that early save before Chad Paronto went on the disabled list with a strained groin. He should be able to return in a couple of weeks.
The fifth starter role was all locked up for Lance Cormier and then he went and strained his triceps muscle. He’ll need a few rehab starts but should return pretty quickly.
I know you thought Mike Hampton was returning this season but after tearing his flexor tendon he is out for the season. He should be able to return in 2008 but at this point he has a lot to prove before he is worth rostering again.
Willy Aybar has an injured left hand and is not ready to start hitting yet. He is a few weeks away at best.
The Marlins can’t catch a break in center field. Alejandro De Aza looked pretty good this spring but is now sidelined with a slight ankle sprain. Jeremy Hermida is helping matters by being constantly unavailable this time due to a sore knee. But this is one of those cases where I would swoop in with an offer. Hermida is a potential stud but his owner in keeper leagues is likely very frustrated with over a year of nothing for stats. The deeper your outfield corps the more I would recommend acquiring him. I think he’ll be back in early May and start showing off his stud form again. But you need to act now to get the frustration discount.
Grab up Henry Owens if he is still available. Jorge Julio doesn’t have much hope of getting the closer role back with so many better options on the squad. So many people seem to think Taylor Tankersley will get the job but not only don’t I think it will happen I can’t see where this is coming from, not from Freddie Gonzalez certainly. Ricky Nolasco is another one always mentioned as in the running for the role but the Marlins want him to start ultimately. Nolasco should return from his elbow strain in early May if all goes well.
Josh Johnson has been playing catch and will begin throwing on back-to-back days this week. The Marlins don't expect Johnson to be activated from the disabled list until early-June.
Juan Padilla has torn his flexor tendon and is probably out for the season. He won’t help the Mets’ bullpen from the disabled list will he? Duaner Sanchez won’t be helping much either. He just had a screw put into his shoulder to repair a fracture. He isn’t likely to appear in the majors before August if at all this season.
Technically Dave Williams will be ready to return to the Mets in a couple of weeks but in reality I wouldn’t give him a snowball’s chance in hell of being in the Mets rotation this year.
Pedro Martinez is looking better and better everyday and it looks like he’ll be a huge part of the Mets’ rotation after the All-Star Break.
The Phillies have no significant injuries to report, that won’t last.
The Nationals are a thin enough team without adding a bunch of injuries to the mix. Nick Johnson should be at the heart of the Nats’ lineup but instead he will out until June or so as he makes a painfully slow recovery from a broken leg.
Christian Guzman was being counted on to provide good defense at short but he landed on the DL with a quickness. He is scheduled to start baseball activities this week and should only be a couple of weeks from a return if all goes well.
The Nationals placed center fielder Nook Logan on the 15-day disabled list with a left foot strain.
Luis Ayala is scheduled to begin throwing this week but is still a few weeks from a return to the majors.
National League Central
Kerry Wood and Mark Prior are hurting....
On a more relevant note Aramis Ramirez has tendonitis in his right wrist. He has been placed on anti-inflammatory medication and is expected to be fine in a few days.
Chris Denorfia had Tommy John Surgery and will be out for the entire season.
The Reds placed Rule V pick Jared Burton on the disabled list with a strained hamstring but in reality they are just stashing him.
Bill Bray will wear a splint for a week or two while he recovers from a fracture in his index finger. He should be fine once the finger heals.
Eddie Guardado is another one of those guys who is injured but worth acquiring. He is throwing now and should be ready to return in late June and he just might go straight into a closer role.
Jason Jennings is on the disabled list and will miss at least two starts because of elbow tendonitis. An MRI didn’t show any ligament damage so it isn’t nearly as bad as it could be.
Brandon Backe is also out of action after pre-season elbow surgery. He is scheduled to return in August but I wouldn’t count on it.
Corey Koskie is probably done playing baseball because of post-concussion syndrome.
John Grabow is already pitching in the minors and could return from his elbow strain any day now.
Scott Rolen’s had some back spasms this week. Supposedly he’s fine but it is something for his owners to worry about.
The Cardinals went into the season thinking Chris Carpenter was the one stud pitcher they could rely on, oops. Now they hope that two weeks of rest will allow him to avoid needing surgery to heal the impingement in his right elbow. I’m worried how about you?
Left-hander Mark Mulder should be able to return in July from shoulder surgery but how effective he’ll be is the big question. Torn labrums are tough to predict.
Following Tommy John Surgery Josh Kinney is out for the season. Too bad I sorta liked him...
Juan Encarnacion is on the DL with a sore left wrist but he isn’t that good anyway so you might be better off.
National League West
How Randy Johnson throws in a bullpen session on Monday will determine whether he's activated to start Thursday against the Padres. Johnson is pretty much healed from his back surgery he’s just rounding into pitching form at this point. If he isn’t good this season it probably has more to do with his age than his back.
Carlos Quentin should be able to return to the Diamondback’s active roster this week. His shoulder injury seems to be a thing of the past. He’s a great player who can still have an awesome season.
Jeff DaVanon may receive a cortisone injection to speed his recovery from shoulder surgery but since he is still in pain when he swings it will likely be a couple of weeks if the D’backs know what’s good for ‘em.
Rodrigo Lopez will miss his scheduled start Sunday because of right elbow inflammation. Byung-Hyun Kim will take his spot in the rotation.
The Dodgers placed outfielder Matt Kemp on the disabled list with a separated shoulder. "It's a grade one separation," manager Grady Little said. "It's going to be between seven days and two weeks. It's the right thing for us to do right now. A lot can be told the day after something like that happens." ‘nuff said?
Hong-Chih Kuo will begin his rehab from a sore shoulder this week. If all goes well he should return to active duty in a couple of weeks.
Outfielder Jason Repko is on the 15-day disabled list with torn hamstring tendons. Repko is likely to miss the entire season following surgery Wednesday.
Catcher Josh Bard hit the disabled list with a strained groin. He should be fine after a couple of weeks rest.
And finally the Giants have no significant injuries to report. That just can’t last with such an old team.
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