Kicking Off Draft-Prep Season

The Colorado Rockies might be the most inept organization in MLB. They recently signed free agent outfielder Gerardo Parra, which in and of itself is not so horrible, but to clear a roster spot they designated Kyle Parker their 2010 first round pick who has had all of 138 plate appearances across two up and down seasons. Not exactly a long audition for a first round pick who has generally hit well in the minors. Then they compounded this mistake by trading not-yet abritration eligible outfielder Corey Dickerson to the Tampa Bay Rays (the Rays are like that guy in your league with whom you almost always regret making trades) for a twice-DLed relief pitcher. This as the team remains mediocre with expensive declining pieces still on the roster. I listened to their new GM Jeff Bridich on MLB Radio on SIRIUS last week and he comes off as a baseball neanderthal. So I guess I should not be surprised. Maybe I am judging too harshly and this is an attempt at a strongbullpen/fastball pitcher strategy but I do not have much faith.

I'll give a dollar to own Tim Lincecum in hopes his recovery from hip surgery truly means he can return to the mechanics he used during his Cy Young period. It would not be the most shocking career rebound we have seen. I would be willing to waste a dollar on Cliff Lee as well, assuming he ends up in a good situation.

Closer Tip: When you are considering which pitcher to draft for saves you should weigh whether or not the current closer is the best pitcher in the bullpen. If he isn't, look elsewhere for saves and draft the best guy in a given bullpen to finish your pitching staff or fill out your reserves. You can pretty much ignore media speculation and manager noise about next-in-line relievers. (More to come in the site's new newletter.)

More and more of the industry experts seem to be coming around to the conclusion that targeting statistical totals based on a set of projections as a draft strategy is not necessarily a winning formula. Ron Shandler's Other Book is largely based on the idea that depending on projections as part of your draft strategy is not a great start to building your fantasy teams. While Tanner Bell (of the quite awesome Smart Fantasy Baseball) seems to contradict this idea in his recent article for RotoGraphs, most of the evidence he presents simultaneously demonstrates that your targets based on projections vary widely from the actual results. The conclusion you end up with is that targeting skills and playing time is a far more successful strategy than counting adding up homerun and RBI projections.

Draft Kings Lineup October 4th, 2015

I didn't place a lineup last week. But week two was a disaster...

QB Andy Dalton
RB Latavius Murray
RB Joseph Randle
WR A.J. Green
WR Julio Jones
WR Larry Fitzgerald
TE Larry Donnell
Flex Karlos Williams
Def Tampa Bay

The Future of Luis Valbuena and Third Base for the Astros

Luis Valbuena had a solid season with some potentially confusing results. He began the season as the Houston Astros primary third baseman after several seasons as a sort of super-utility player for the Cleveland Indians and Chicago Cubs. In 2014, Valbuena showed signs of a power breakout by batting .249/.341/.435 with 16 homers in 478 at-bats. Well, the power certainly came on as Valbuena had slammed 25 homers going into the last day of the season. He hit 19 of those homers in the first half but with a disappointing boom or bust slash of 199/.285/.430 that limited his value to fantasy owners even in this low batting average era. It was enough to return him to a more limited role in the second half of the season, as he entered a platoon of sorts with Jed Lowrie and made the odd appearance at second or first base. He did bring his batting average up, he finished at .224/.311/.441 by batting .273/.364/.462 in his last 143 at-bats. Valbuena would be eligible for free-agency after the 2016 season and is unlikely to be re-signed as a starter.

There are not any standout third basemen in free agency this year. It seems unlikely that the Astros will make a free agent addition. The Astros do have some very interesting prospects that could play a role in 2016. The most familiar name is probably Colin Moran who came to the Astros via a trade in 2014 and has done nothing but hit since. Moran's first half was largely ruined by a fractured jaw suffered by an errant throw in May. He made up for the slow start with a blistering second half of the season in which he batted .333/.416/.526 and earned a promotion to Triple-A. GM Jeff Luhnow is a big fan of Moran - trading for him after seriously considering him with the first overall pick in 2013. Moran probably hits for a solid or better average in the majors but has not yet developed the power most managers like to see at the position.

Less well known but moving up prospect charts with a bullet is Tyler White. White was a 33rd round pick out of Western Carolina University. He has hit at every level and has more in-game power than Moran. He is not yet on the 40-man roster but is certain to be added after this season. He hit a combined 325/.442/.496 with 84 walks and 73 strikeouts on the season along with 25 doubles, 14 homeruns and 99 RBI. He is seen by many as a future first baseman but has played more at third base than first to this point. His bat looks extremely potent and there should be more power coming.

J.D. Davis is even less well known than White but he has the best right-now power of this trio of prospects. This season he hit .280/.370/.520 with 28 doubles, three triples, 26 home runs and 101 RBI in 120 games. He was a college first baseman and pitcher and has a plsu arm at third but is still learning some of the nuances of the position. He is the furthest away from the majors as things stand but if his glove continues to improve and he develops into a solid third baseman he could be at the top of this list in going into the 2017 season.

The guess here is that Jed Lowrie and Luis Valbuena will be the favorite going into Spring Training to renew their platooon at the position. But I expect Tyler White to make a lot of noise in the spring and either he and Moran could  complicate things going into the 2016 season. All things being equal, Moran probably gets the first real opportunity due to his draft pedigree but White probably has the most impact bat.

Draft Kings Lineup Sept 20th , 2015

I may regret replacing Alfred Morris with Lagarrette Blount at the last minute but we'll see...  Last week I netted $6 on $12 bet.

QB Drew Brees
RB L. Blount
RB Carlos Hyde
WR Antonio Brown
WR Davante Adams
WR Kendall Wright
TE Tyler Eiffer
Flex Larry Fitzgerald

September 13th, Draft Kings NFL Lineup

My Draft KIngs NFL Lineup for this week:

QB Sam Bradford - The best situation he has ever been in as a pro, he finally has both protection and targets.
RB Eddie Lacy - He is a stud running back playing on a team that forces defenses to look for the pass.
RB Latavius Murray - He's been inconsistent but I think this is his year.
WR Dez Bryant - No doubt stud receiver with an above average QB.
WR Davante Adams - Forced into the starting lineup, I think he'll be a solid number two and an eventual stud.
WR Stevie Johnson - The best quarterback he's had in his career and plenty of targets available. Underrated.
TE Tyler Eiffert - He's healthy and could be the underneath weapon the Bengals need.
Flex Justin Forsett - A stud running back without the stud running back price-tag.
Def Bengals - The number one defense in the NFL this season.

2015 Big Finishes and Slow Fades Part 2

The Slow Fade - there are the players I see slowing down as the season comes to a close. Not necessarily at a disastrous level but way off their first half pace

C - Yasmani Grandal, Los Angeles Dodgers

Grandal is a good young hitter and he has clearly benefited from the move to Dodger Stadium from Petco Park. But I think his power numbers are a bit over his head and will fade over the last two months of the season. He can hit, I just do not see him as the 25-30 homer guy his 21.2 HR/FB rate (career 16.2) makes him out to be. I do have to give him credit for the improvement in his catcher defense.

1B -  Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves

Although Freeman has returned from his wrist injury quickly, I do not expect a big finish. Wrist injuries are notorious for sapping power. If I owned Freeman I would be grateful if he just stayed in the line up and hit for average. For the rest of this season I would consider any power a huge bonus.

3B - Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies

I love Arenado but this is the season I expect the Rockies to finally trade off some of their more expensive players for an influx of younger talent. The result, I expect, would be a decrease in the pace of Arenado's runs and RBI. But if the Rockies sit on their hands again, you can ignore this completely. ***Since I started writing this piece the Rockies traded Tulo and there were plenty of rumors about CarGo as well.

2B - Dee Gordon, Miami Marlins

It is easy to pick on Dee Gordon here, since he clearly is unlikely to hit .330 all year. He also has a history of second half collapses. I don't think he'll lose all value in the second half but the average will drop and his stolen base total pace will slow dramatically. I blame this more on a Marlins team that has lost all reason to keep fighting more than on Gordon's skills or lack thereof. I will like him again next year.

SS - Jose Reyes, Colorado Rockies

If you are in an AL-only league you already be feeling Reyes' loss. The temptation will probably be to anticipate a huge jump in stats for Reyes playing in the thinner air around Coors Field, but Reyes has never hit well there with a .254/.259/.447 slash in just over a hundred at-bats. On top of that, Reyes is getting old and already slowing down. The prediction for one of my favorite players is that he limps to the finish this season.

OF - A. J. Pollock, Arizona Diamondbacks

I like Pollock. I just think he's been playing over his head a bit. The power is already showing signs of fading. I think he will finish with quality season totals but the second half will not be nearly a great as the first. And I don't mean to pick on the Diamondbacks but...

OF - Yasmany Tomas, Arizona Diamondbacks

Tomas has been much better than I anticipated he would be. But he has surprised a lot of people by hitting for average without power. I'm only surprised by the average. Still, the Diamondbacks (one of the more badly run organizations in my opinion) seem to be favoring keeping David Peralta and Ender Inciarte in the lineup at Tomas's expense. And I don't see the him hitting .300 in the second half.

OF - Carlos Gomez, Houston Astros

Gomez is already having a down season but with the trade there seems to be a lot of speculation that merely being an Astro will transform him back into the All-Star of the last few seasons. Despite the Mets horrible track record with diagnosing injuries, I find it easy to believe he is playing through injury given his down power and speed this season. Just because he is able to play does not mean he is truly healthy.

SP - Lance McCullers, Houston Astros

McCullers has been great and I think he has an awesome future but the Astros want to control his innings count and have added arms that will allow them to push him to the

CL - Jeurys Familia, New York Mets

He already has a few second half blown saves and now the Mets have brought in Tyler Clippard. I think the Mets will stick with him but Clippard is almost certain to steal chances from him.

2015 Big Finishes and Slow Fades

Whether you are in contention or rebuilding, the player movement around the trade deadline is bound to be of interest. The contending teams are hoping to see big names changing leagues while the re-builders are hoping that some fresh young talents find new roles on new teams while they can still be had cheaply. But as fantasy owners we can not count on MLB owners and general managers to create the influx of talent we are all hoping to see. We are forced to make the best of what is already available and that is the focus of today's article.

The Big Finish - these are the players I see as likely to be better down the stretch than they may have been in the first half of the season.

C - John Jaso, Tampa Bay Rays

Jaso was hurt on the first day of the 2015 season and didn't player again until just a couple of weeks ago. He is already off to a hot start. Jaso hits for average with only occasional power but for a catcher (where he still qualifies in most leagues) he is an excellent hitter.

1B - Jose Abreu, Chicago White Sox

The White Sox offense has been embarrassingly bad this season after making some big moves over the winter months in hopes of putting a contender on the field. Instead most of the White Sox young players have disappointed or crashed altogether. Abreu has had a fine season thus far, though not on the blistering pace of 2014. There have been signs of the White Sox breaking out of their team-wide slump and I think a big finish for the entire team is in the cards. When they do, Abreu will be right in the middle of it.

3B - Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox

Bogaerts has had a strong season thus far but I think it gets even better from here. While Bogaerts has been working on making better contact, he is also starting to hit the ball harder and I think we're about to see a power surge. He also has the speed to do more on the bases than he has thus far, though that may not be part of the game plan.

2B - Robinson Cano, Seattle Mariners

After an extremely slow start, Cano is finally cranking like an MVP should. Over the last three weeks he has hit .314/.368/.600 with five homers 15 runs and 14 RBI. You can probably get him on the
cheap from a disappointed owner out of the running.

SS - Cesar Hernandez, Philadelphia Phillies

Hernandez was a decent infield prospect a few years back but has always been blocked by the Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley legacy. Now that Rollins is a Dodger and Utley's performance and health has declined to the replaceable level, Hernandez is getting his shot. Ruben Amaro has already made it clear that the job is Hernandez's to lose for the rest of the season. He is hitting for average and stealing bases. He is still available in a lot of leagues.

OF - Matt Kemp, San Diego Padres

After the first two months of the season it would be easy to call Kemp a bust in San Diego and the deal that brought him there a horrible one fot the Padres (and they may still be true). Howver, Kemp has looked a lot like Kemp since June 1st. I bet you can get him for a song from his non-contending owners.

OF - Michael Conforto, New York Mets

Conforto is not the strongest or the fastest prospect in the Mets system but he was their best prospect because he works and the Mets can be confident he will continue to work to be the best player he can possibly be. He should hit for average with decent power this season. I think he is destined to be a Mets favorite for the next decade.

OF - Odubel Herrera, Philadelphia Phillies

Odubal Herrera has already had a solid season in limited at-bats. As the Phillies trade off veteran bats, expect Herrera's playing time to increase and his stats to improve with more consistent at-bats. The former Mid-West league betting champ could become a .300 hitting, gold-glove worthy center fielder with 40 steal speed in the very near future.

SP - Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies

Hamels is expected to be on the move soon. Returning to a contender should be the spark that pushes Hamels back into the top tier of major league starters. The no=hitter certainly won't hurt his trade value.

SP - Carlos Carrasco, Cleveland Indians

Carrasco has had a solid season marred by some bad luck. The bullpen has let him down to a certain extent and his BABIP against has soared this season to a fairly ridiculous .341 which should fall steadily if there is any justice in the world. His 2.89 FIP tells the story.

SP - Jeff Samardzija, Chicago White Sox

A poor start to the season and an under performing lineup have been a bad combination for Samardzija owners. But of late he is pitching well and I think the opportunity to play for a contender down the stretch and build value for his upcoming free agency will drive him forward.

MR - Kevin Seigrist, St. Louis Cardinals

Unless disaster strikes Trevor Rosenthal, Seigrist is unlikely to gain a closer role this season. But the Cardinals are winning so much and Seigrist has been so good that he is a worthy pickup in any league. He will probably add another half dozen saves down the stretch of the Cards keep winning.

MR - Ken Giles, Philadelphia Phillies - Giles is not perfect, he still walks a few too many and his BABIP is high. But Giles is the clear next-in-line as closer for the Phillies when Papelbon is traded.

CL - Jonathan Papelbon, Philadelphia Phillies

Papelbon has had another very good season on a lousy team. He has been adamant amount moving on to a contending team and the Phillies seem likely to grant his wish. Papelbon's value should only improve on a better team.

Bonus Prospects to Watch:

Corey Seager SS Los Angeles Dodgers - The consensus best prospect still in the minors is ready.

Hector Olivera 3B Los Angeles Dodgers - Olivera just needs to stay healthy and Justin Turner slows down.

Ketel Marte SS Seattle Mariners - A potential stud shortstop with a real bat needs to stay healthy and a shot will come.

Luis Severino SP New York Yankees - The Yankees best prospect is ready for the big leagues.

Robert Stephenson SP Cincinnati Reds - He is still developing but should get an opportunity if the Reds trade off their impending free agents.

Derek Law RP San Francisco Giants - His recovery from TJS seems to be complete and he could be a dominate reliever down the stretch.

Carl Edwards RP Chicago Cubs - He still walks too many but if the Cubs are still in it down the stretch he could be a big arm in the bullpen.