Hot Stove Junkie: The Pre-Winter Meetings Version

Obviously this should have been published a couple of weeks back. Things got busy for me and production slowed dramatically when I accidently deleted half what I had written. But this is not about the news that happened but rather what the impact to our fantasy teams might be. So I hope you'll still find some value in this. There are two more reports being published very quickly after this one appears. 

Peace and good trading - 

Jon

The New York Yankees Trade For Didi Gregorious and Sign Andrew Miller 

Didi Gregorious makes good contact, has a decent eye at the plate and is willing to take walks. He has solid power for a middle infielder and his fly ball trends are a good fit in Yankee Stadium. He has
good speed but has not been inclined to steal many bases so far in his career. GM Brian Cashman is saying that (initially at least) Brendan Ryan will get most of the at-bats against lefties.I believe this is at least partially a way to lessen the pressure on Gregorious. I like him as an infield option at 10-12 dollars in keeper leagues, a little less in re-draft leagues.

Andrew Miller will need to shave his big bushy beard but this is a great signing for the Yankees bullpen. Miller could potentially close since Robertson did not re-sign, but he is also comfortable as a set-up man. This is especially important if the Yankees push Dellin Betances into the closer role. The Yankees could still add a solid closer option which would be a good idea. The Yankees rotation is thin and loaded with injury issues and anything that allows them to shorten the game is a good idea. Miller's K-rate has steadily improved to massively dominant over the last three years. The control did not come until 2014 and it is difficult to believe that walk rate will not rise at least a bit back towards his career rates. However, as long as his strikeout rate is maintained he should be a very valuable piece of your fantasy bullpen even without the closer role. He is probably approaching a ten dollar player in any case but if you see saves in his future I could see approaching 15 in keeper leagues.

I think it is interesting that the Houston Astros actually made the biggest offer to Miller. The Astros were willing to give him ten million per season. Miller apparently turned them down for a better opportunity to compete and reach the playoffs. The Astros could seek revenge by signing David Robertson (that didn't happen). They are also rumored to have reached out to Sergio Romo and Luke Gregorson (more on that in the next reports) in an attempt to improve their major league bullpen. The Astros have money to spend and someone out there is going to get a crap load of it.

The Detroit Tigers Get Shane Greene in the Deal

The Tigers get Shane Greene in the deal and he could be a surprising strong long-term addition to their starting rotation. Although he was never a top tier prospect he has good stuff and three solid pitches. He didn't seem to put it all together until Double-A which is part of the reason he has not been hyped much. But Cashman always liked him and referred to him as an underrated prospect after his Double-A season. I would not go crazy bidding on him but I like him in keeper leagues and would be willing to spend 8-10 dollars on him. I see a decent profit built into a price like that.

The Diamondbacks get lefty starter Robbie Ray (who the Tigers so famously traded Doug Fister to acquire) and infield prospect Domingo Leyba. 

The Diamondbacks were offered their pick of the Tigers' young, close-to-big-league-ready starters — right-handers Buck Farmer and Drew VerHagen, and left-handers Kyle Lobstein and Kyle Ryan — and it wasn't a surprise to Dombrowski when Arizona's first-year general manager Dave Stewart opted for Ray.

Judging by his performance in 2014 Ray needs some more time in the minor leagues. I would not invest in a re-draft league but I might use a minor league pick on him in a deep draft. I see his upside as mid-rotation starter or strong reliever. He pitched 28 inning in the majors last year and was pretty bad. He also was not good at Triple-A. He certainly has potential if he can find his control again and get back to the level of his 2013 performance. Maybe the D'Backs can draw it out of him. I would avoid investing on Ray at this point.

Domingo Leyba is a long way from the major leagues. He looks like a decent defensive middle infielder with some speed and could develop some pop. He's probably worth a minor league pick if you can afford to wait four years, other wise I'd avoid him. 

Did the Tiger Give Up on Ray Too Soon?

Nick Markakis Signs With the Atlanta Braves 

The Braves were apparently aware that Nick Markakis may require surgery on his neck before the season which makes this signing if not questionable at least a little odd for a team in a re-structuring mode. The problem with a herniated disk in his spine is the reason some are giving for the Orioles lukewarm interest in re-signing their veteran free-agent.But according to Dave O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal Constitution, Markakis is indicating he could have the surgery soon (he just did) so that he can be ready for the regular season. Long-term, Markakis will probably be fine if he has the procedure done but it could impact his start to the 2015 season. If he does not have the procedure that may be a reason to avoid him, as pain and stiffness in the area could impact his power and swing even if he manages to make it on to the field everyday. The injury has supposedly been an issue for the last two years. Markakis has usually been a 15-20 dollar player but the surgery, change to the National League and the change from Camden Yards (128 HR factor for lefty batters) to Turner Field (97 HR factor for lefties) is enough to ensure I will only draft him at a heavy discount.

Jim Johnson Also Signs With the Braves

Without a shot at saves, Jim Johnson does not collect enough strikeouts to contribute to most fantasy rosters as a reliever. I suppose if Craig Kimbrel went down with an injury he might be capable of stepping in but that seems like a long shot.I am not worried about his performance. Most of last year's badness looks like just bad luck and the usual fluctuation in reliever performance. You can probably get him for a buck and the chance at the occasional save probably makes that a solid investment. 

Nelson Cruz Signs With the Seattle Mariners

Cruz has the power to regularly hit the ball out of any park. Still, Safeco Field (88 HR Factor for righties - Camden Yards was neutral for right-handed batters) probably isn't the ideal landing spot as far as his fantasy stats are concerned. Everything went right for Cruz with Baltimore in 2014 and it seems unlikely to go the same way in 2015. Even if the park factors don't slow him much you can probably count on at least some regression towards his career numbers. I would pay 20-25 for Cruz and expect 25-30 homers with a decent batting average. The Mariners lineup is improving so the runs and RBI totals should still be strong.

The Blue Jays Acquire Michael Saunders

The Mariners basically dumped Michael Saunders over their war of words. Seattle's GM had some negative things to say publicly about Saunder's conditioning and preparation. He could probably use the change of scenery anyway. Saunders should play regularly for the Blue Jays and he has 20-20 potential if he can stay healthy and on the field. He goes from Safeco (a smidgen above neutral power for left-handed batters) to Toronto's Rogers Centre (which has a 125 HR factor for left-handed batters). He isn't a great player but he works well for fantasy purposes. Even in his injury-shortened seasons he has been a 10-12 dollar player. I would try to buy him in the 10-15 dollar area (plenty of room for profit there), assuming the Blue Jays do not upgrade any further.  

The Oakland Athletics Trade Josh Donaldson to the Blue Jays

I was just as stunned as everyone else when this trade was announced. It seems like an obvious move for the Blue Jays. They upgrade their lineup and get a more consistently healthy player to boot. Josh Donaldson should see a small boost to his stats playing in the AL East parks but I would not go nuts about that possibility. Still a move from Oakland Coliseum (87 HR factor for right-handed batters) to the Rogers Centre (129 HR factor for righties) is drool inducing. He was already a  30-35 dollar player and is probably worth the extra buck or two in AL-Only leagues.

The A's also picked up Ike Davis From the Pirates

Ike Davis still has that power but it becomes more and more unlikely every season. However, again, the Athletics have a knack for coaxing a strong performance out of older prospects. Even so, I would not spend more than a buck or two on Davis. 

Some Say Beane and Donaldson were Feuding

Various Reactions to the Donaldson Deal

The Prospects in the Deal Evaluated

For the Blue Jays The Time is Now

Yasmany Tomas Signs With Arizona Diamondbacks

I was surprised to hear that Yasmany Tomas signed with the Diamondbacks. However, I was not surprised that the contract did not reach the lofty heights speculated by the mainstream media. Tomas has awesome power potential but he is not necessarily a fully developed player. He is not as field ready as Jose Abreu or Rusney Castillo (who also seems a bit overrated). I would not be at all shocked to see him spend some time in the minors during the 2015 season. From the little bit of video I have seen of him I don't his swing much. As a fantasy owner I would be willing to make a fairly serious investment in dynasty leagues but in the typical NL-Only keeper league. I would not want to go too far past 10-12 dollars. HQ has him with a 16 dollar projection, that is probably closer to a 20 projection in most keeper leagues. I recognize that I am unlikely to own him in most leagues. The hype around Cuban and other international free-agents has exploded to ridiculous levels. Fantasy owners should be careful not to get too caught up in the hype and forget to keep their bids for Tomas relative to his projected performance.

BTBS on the Tomas Signing and the Future of the Diamondbacks

The SnakePit Does Some Projections

The Boston Red Sox Sign Both Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval

This move was stunning to me. I expected the Red Sox to sign of these players. I thought they were targeting Pablo Sandoval with Hanley Ramirez as a back-up plan. This is primarily because even with Ramirez's newly stated flexibility as to what position he plays I did not think that a team with a outfield log jam would add yet another body to the mix. Hanley Ramirez is probably the best hitter of the bunch, at least in the short term. And I am certain the Red Sox will be trading some outfield assets to improve their rotation.

At this point you know who Hanley Ramirez is as a player. He has good solid power, steals some bases (not as many as in his youth) and has a tendency to suffer nagging injuries that drag down his plate appearances and to some degree his production. He takes walks, makes decent contact and hits the ball hard. He can be counted on for a solid if not spectacular batting average and is always a threat for a 20/20 season when he stays relatively healthy. Dodger Stadium gives a small boost to right-handed power hitters (115 HR factor) but is a drag on all other offense. Fenway Park is close to neutral for right-handed power but provides a boost to almost everything else. You might look for a slightly better batting average with a slight but not significant dip in HR numbers. You can bid 20-25 with confidence especially in keeper leagues, more than that and you're ignoring the injury factor which is a risky maneuver as far as roster building goes.

I knew the interest in Pablo Sandoval was going to be strong. He is younger than most six-year free agents and has been a productive batter and defender at a tough position for a World Series winner. Still, I thought the San Francisco would re-sign him as they typically over pay to keep the players they develop that hit free agency and are really loyal to players that serve them well. I think this is a good move by the Red Sox, they get his prime and should be out before he hits a massive decline. Sandoval hits the ball hard but is not a huge homerun hitter. He makes good contact from both sides of the plate and takes the occasional walk. He is not great against lefties and his production against them has sunk three years running, though it is not disastrous at this point. San Francisco's AT&T Park is fairly neutral for most offensive categories for left-handed batters but trashes homerun production from both sides of the plate.

AT&T Park Factors from StatCorner.com:

PARK FACTORS (LHB / RHB)
K:	101	104		nB:	96	106
gbH:	100	94		ofH:	110	101
1B:	102	95		GB:	105	103
2/3B:	105	101		FB:	100	97
HR:	67	74		LD:	97	94
Runs:	91	86		IF:	86	85

Fenway Park Factors from StatCorner.com:

PARK FACTORS (LHB / RHB)
K:	99	98		nB:	105	103
gbH:	93	98		ofH:	126	113
1B:	98	102		GB:	99	106
2/3B:	153	118		FB:	100	99
HR:	66	99		LD:	104	93
Runs:	100	108		IF:	87	99

Looking at those factors you could be forgiven for the optimistic view that Sandoval's numbers may rebound a bit from the right side of the plate and even hit hit a few more homeruns. He should also be in a better lineup and see a boost to his runs and RBI stats. He has been a 15-20 player most years and closer to 20 in keeper leagues. I think 20-25 is a fair price. I would not pay much more than that and expect a profit.

The Quick Stuff You May Want to Know But Not Necessarily Fantasy Relevant

• Torii Hunter Returns to the Minnesota Twins as far less of a player than when he left but is still a solid player and fantasy option. The change in parks is not exciting however.
• The Mariners Sign Kyle Seager to a Seven-Year Contract. A good move for the Mariners - locking up one of their better players. It could make top prospect DJ Peterson trade bait or force a position change.
• The Royals Trade Aaron Crow to the Marlins. Crow is still young and has closer potential if he reaches his ceiling. The Marlins have been excellent at developing pitching talent. I'd invest a buck in endgame.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers Acquired Juan Nicasio From the Colorado Rockies, and the Dodgers bullpen is looking a lot better and deeper than it was in 2014.
• The Tampa Bay Rays traded utility man Sean Rodriguez to the Pittsburgh Pirates for a player to be named and cash. the Rays made room for reliever Ernesto Frieri. The Pirates will use Rodriguez in the utility role that Josh Harrison filled so capably last season. The Pirates designated Gabby Sanchez to make space on the roster. 
• Ryan Dempster Retires and Joins the Cubs Front Office - I was a Dempster fan and wish him luck.
• Kevin Cash is the new manager of the Tampa Bay Rays. He may have a Terry Francona style as he is often referred to as from the Francona management tree.
• Jayson Werth will spend ten days in Jail for reckless driving.
• Daisuke Matsuzaka returns to Japan. I like Dice-K a lot and I think the Red Sox (in retrospect obviously) may not have been the best team for him to sign with. They spent all that money on him and then insisted on changing his workout routine and trying to change the way he pitched. In my opinion, you sign a guy like that and let him do his thing.
• The Royals Re-Sign Luke Hochevar. If he is fully returned to health he should add quality to an already strong bullpen.

Other Links of Interest to Fantasy Owners

The Impact Moves Will Continue into December

Ryan Braun's Thumb Feels Great

Jayson Stark Suggest Hamels Trade Is Not the Best Idea for the Phillies

The Case for Allen Craig Rebounding

An Older Piece on the New Style MLB Manager

Making Hitters Better Through Science

Hot Stove Junkie: Giancarlo Stanton and More

The Cyborg Steve Austin has nothing...

...on the 325 Million Dollar Man!

The 325 Million Dollar Man - Giancarlo Stanton

You can make a pretty solid case for Giancarlo Stanton as the number one pick in a fantasy draft. He is the most reliable source of power going into the 2015 season and the other possibilities are all flawed. Miguel Cabrera is coming off serious ankle surgery. Mike Trout may be the MVP but he was not significantly better than Stanton and his rising strikeout rate worries me. Paul Goldschmidt is coming off an injury shortened season. I love McCutchen but I'll take Stanton's superior power over Cutch's overall stats. Adam Jones isn't better. In Seattle, Cano does not have the power I want in the first overall pick. I don't think I'll take Jose Altuve or Michael Brantley with the number one pick. I doubt Victor Martinez duplicates his 2014 season next year and a DH makes a poor choice at number one. I suppose you could make a case for Kershaw but offense is in too much of a decline to take a pitcher with the first pick.

Ol' Mike Answers the Tough Questions Well

Stanton Could Earn His Huge Contract

Loria Promises More Moves to Come

Adam LaRoche and Zach Duke sign with the Chicago White Sox

You have to wonder how happy Jose Abreu is to have the team sign another first baseman. Obviously one of them will be the designated hitter. LaRoche has the greater defensive reputation but is clearly in decline and at 35-years old is the more appropriate choice for DH duties. At 29 I doubt Abreu is ready to quite playing the field.

In any case I expect LaRoche to put up some good numbers playing in US Cellular Field or whatever they call the White Sox park these days. You can expect LaRoche's power numbers to be maximized, though that did not happen for the last power hitter the White Sox signed away from the Nationals. 

The LaRoche move comes just a days after signing left-hander Zach Duke to a three-year contract. Duke has re-invented himself as a relief pitcher and was very good for the Milwaukee Brewers during the 2014 season. He is not just a lefty specialist. His changes to both his mechanics and pitch mix dramatically improved his strikeout rate. That in additional to the boost usually provided to a pitcher moving from the rotation to the bullpen has made him a new man.

The White Sox are also looking at Melky Cabrera. They can certainly use the upgrade in left field and he fits near the top of the order in front of Abreu and LaRoche most likely.If they can pull that off and the young guys continue to develop in the right direction, the White Sox could be contenders this season.

The White Sox are In It to Win It

They Love the Zach Duke Deal on the South Side

Beyond the Box Score on the LaRoche Sigining

BTBS on Zach Dukes Metamorphosis

The Braves Trade Jason Heyward to the Cardinals

The Braves tried to sign Heyward to a long term contract and were unsuccessful last year. Apparently his price was high enough that they decided to part with him rather than risk receiving just a draft pick for him. Shelby Miller has ace potential and despite his poor season, showed signs of rebounding in his last few starts. The Braves have always been better at developing pitchers than they are position players and I think they are likely to get the best of Shelby Miller.

The Braves have been weird with their hitting philosophies and the constant rotation of hitting coaches probably did not help. They seem to stress contact over all else and while I can see the value in that it is not always playing to the strength of a particular player. Heyward's contact rate has seen a steady rise even as his power has declined. I'm betting the Cardinals are the beneficiaries of Heyward putting it all together and regaining some of that lost power.

The Sports Illustrated Analysis of the Braves/Cardinals Deal

The Price for Justin Upton is High

The Braves Also Traded INF Tommy LaStella for Reliever Arodys Vizcaino

I am still confused about this deal. LaStella seemed like the cheap, solid defense, top of the order type that the Braves needed while they paid off the Dan Uggla and B.J. Upton blunders. Are they planning to jump Jose Peraza to the majors? The Braves have successfully jumped players like this in the past. Or maybe they are just counting on future trades filling their new hole at second base. I do like Phil Gosselin more than most and can see him getting an opportunity to start the season at second base.

After trading Jordan Walden the re-acquisition of Arodys Vizcaino makes some sense. Vizcaino has been plagued by injuries and ineffectiveness but still has the potential to be a top relief ace. The trade did bring them more cap room in the International Prospect Market but that knowledge is of little use to fantasy owners but helpful in the re-building effort.

The most interesting part of the deal is what this means for the Cubs who already seemed to have an middle infield surplus.There has been tons of speculation that this is the precursor of the Cubs moving one of their big three shortstops - Starlin Castro, Javier Baez or Addison Russell. But ignoring that possibility the LaStella trade makes some sense for the Cubs. At worst he becomes a bench player with the contact and top of the order skills that some of the bigger prospects do not have. He could also buy the Cubs a bit more time at second base. Baez struggled to make adjustments in the majors and could use some more time in the minor leagues to work on his defense and cutting down on the strikeouts.

Dave O'Brien Looks at the LaStella Trade

Braves Fans Don't Have a Problem With It

Looking at the Cubs Trade Prospects

The Twins Win the Bidding for Korean Lefty Hyeon-jong Yang

((I am now hearing that this report may not be true and that it is actually the Texas Rangers that won the bidding. Either way there will be a 30-day window for negotiating the actual contract. Unless his KBO team pulls the posting over the small posting fee.))

The Twins still need to sign Yang but they seem to have a reasonable chance of getting that done. Yang is viewed as a solid mid-rotation starter but has the potential to be a bit better than that. If he pitches up to his potential he is the sort of player that can be the ace of a small market team.He is the type of pitcher that still makes for a decent sleeper. There has not been much hype and the Twins won the bidding so the scrutiny on the player is likely to be minimal.

Yang Won the KBO Equivalent of the Cy Young Award 


Billy Butler signs with the Oakland Athletics 

I understand the skepticism that a lot of A's fans have been expressing over this signing and I also understand why the Royals fans were not very disappointed. However, I believe that this will ultimately be a solid investment by the Athletics. First, the value of even league average offense is way up in real leagues as it is in fantasy. Butler does not have to repeat his best seasons to get there and I think his power will bounce back a bit. The Royals were constantljjnuhy7uy y messing with Butler. Trying to get him to hit for more power and getting mixed messages from their He did curb his ground ball trend a bit this year it just did not translate into his HR/FB rate. Also, despite their late season slump and the Cespedes trade, the Athletics have a much better lineup and Butler should benefit in RBI at least and possibly even in runs scored (assuming he doesn't try stealing many bases). For the small investment it will take fantasy owners, Butler should be worth the risk.

Cliff Corcoran Does Not Like the Deal

The Shortage of Right-Handed Power Hitters

The Dodgers and Rays make a Four-Player Deal

It was not the trade hot stove junkies have been dying to see but it was interesting. The Rays sent reliever Joel Peralta and minor-leaguer Adam Liberatore to Los Angeles for rookie Jose Dominguez and minor-league right-hander Greg Harris. For the Dodgers this is about lengthening their bullpen. Peralta is a solid option for the sixth and seventh innings. Liberatore gets lots of strikeouts and I am certain President Andrew Friedman knows exactly what he is getting. The Rays meanwhile are making room for younger and cheaper players.

From the Process Report:

The Joel Peralta era ends on a bittersweet note. The franchise leader in pitcher appearances had his club option picked up earlier this month but will pitch for a new team (old boss) next season. Even at his advanced age, the right-hander is an above-average reliever despite claims otherwise. He continues to post strikeouts in bunches, miss bats his splitter and controlled the strike zone much better last season. Limited natural ability lends to a thin margin for error. When he is off, he can have stretches of ineffectiveness; however, the overall package – including clubhouse leadership – is a net positive. The fact that the Rays were able to flip his 39-year-old arm for a pair of young pitchers is a testament to his ability. It also means his impact on the club could linger long past his playing days. 

The Rays Lose Another Cog to the Twins: Pitching Coach Neil Allen. 

The Tigers Re-Sign Victor Martinez

Victor Martinez is a good hitter and is likely to remain a good hitter for the length of his four-year $68 million deal. The question that some will ask is how likely is Martinez to maintain his 2014 power numbers. Martinez has typically been a high-average hitter that utilizes the entire field in his approach. In 2014 he still hit for average but was more often pulling the ball which led to his increased power. If he keeps up that approach maybe the power will stick around.

The Tigers Need to Win Now

Victor Martinez was Fantasy MVP for Some

The Blue Steal Russell Martin Away From the Cubs and Dodgers

Even if Martin regresses back to his career levels with the bat I'll be giving an uptick to the Blue Jays pitching staff based on just his defense and pitch framing skills.That said I expect Martin to be a solid option for fantasy owners. If nothing else he usually hits for a non-disastrous batting average (even easier as the league batting average continues to fall) and some power. His former speed on the bases is evaporating but not entirely gone. He may toss in a few stolen bases to help pad your stats.

Clint Hurdle told this to ESPN regarding Martin:

"He has the ability to make every pitcher feel like he has an opportunity to be the best he's ever been that day on the mound … He brings an edge in the clubhouse and an edge when guys are in there lifting [weights]. Three hours before the game, he's dragging out guys who've never kicked a soccer ball in their life. Now they're out there kicking a ball. He's like the Pied Piper."

Jay Jaffe Examines the Deal for Russell Martin 

A Big Contract for a Worthy Player

Radhames Liz signs with the Pittsburgh Pirates

Liz just signed a major league deal for two years and $3 million. He supposedly had quite a few offers from teams in MLB and Japan. The Pirates matched his best offer and he chose them over moving to Japan. Liz was ranked as a top 100 prospect by Baseball America while coming up with the Orioles. He has always had fantastic stuff but strugles with his command. He re-invented himself in the KBO to the extent that the Blue Jays brought him back to MLB on a minor league deal and he pitched ok, if not well enough to warrant a call-up to the majors. The Pirates pitching gurus - Jim Benedict and Ray Searage, have been very successful re-building the careers of pitchers the last few years. Liz has power stuff (he can hit 100mph) and has a killer curve. I'd buy him for a buck.

Links of Interest to Fantasy Owners


Max Scherzer Could Be Plan B for the Washington Nationals

The Dodgers Are Dangling Matt Kemp and Could Actually Deal Him

The Red Sox seem very interested in Yoan Moncada

Sandoval Leaning Towards Boston

But the Padres May Have Made the Best Offer
The Yankees Build Up Farm Through International Free-Agents

The Padres are Desperate to Improve Their Lineup

The Reds could trade Jay Bruce

The Pirate Clear Space for Pedro Alvarez to Play First Base

The Future of Nelson Cruz

The Mets May Not Get The Expected Return for Jon Niese

Execs Believe David Robertson will Get His Money

More Hot Stove Junkie

The next Cuban Sensation: Shortstop Yoan Moncada

Yoan Moncada

Wow, did a lot happen this week or what? My favorite bit of news is on the next Cuban Sensation up for bid. He is 19-year old shortstop (and potential second baseman, third baseman or center fielder) Yoan Moncada. This kid is said to be the real deal and definitely worthy of a spot on your dynasty league roster or a minor-league pick in keeper leagues. He is said to have plus speed, plus power and skill with the bat to go with a rocket arm and soft hands in the field.

This Ben Badler quote from Baseball America cinches the deal for me:

How good is Moncada? He has more upside than Cuban outfielder Rusney Castillo, who just reached a $72.5 million deal with the Red Sox. He’s better than Cuban outfielder Yasmany Tomas... If Moncada were eligible for the 2015 draft, he would be in the mix to be the No. 1 overall pick. Gourriel and Despaigne would be safer bets, but there’s no player in Cuba with Moncada’s combination of youth, tools and hitting ability. 

FanGraphs.com: The Yoan Moncada Showcase

Yoan Moncada may force MLB to move to an International Draft

Baseball America's Profile on Yoan Moncada

The Tampa Bay Rays Trade Jeremy Hellickson

Hellickson seemed to defy expectations his first few years in the majors with ERA totals that looked much better than the various ERA predictors such as FIP and xFIP  revealed. Then injuries and disappointment dominated the last two seasons - as many experts predicted. What do the Arizona Diamondbacks see in Hellickson? They seem to have a vast collection of talented starting pitchers that have disappointed in one way or another, even before adding Hellickson to their numbers. They also have a few highly thought of pitching prospects.

I am confident that Hellickson can be solid mid-rotation starter for the D'backs. I think injuries are mostly to blame for the poor performance the last two seasons. And even if he is not the pitcher he appears to be in his rookie and sophomore seasons, he was never really projected to be terrible. His strikeout rate  has been ticking upward and his Swinging Strike rate is indicating that improvement is real. The uptick in strikeouts has also led to an improving FIP. The move to the NL should only help his strikeout rate improve further and with a solid defense behind him I think he will be quite fantasy worthy for a low investment.

Diamondbacks fans are not thrilled by the trade

Rays fans seem quite a bit happier...

Rays fans examine Hellickson just before the deal took place

New York Newsday's Controversial Steroid Story

Anthony Bosch has accused agent Scott Boras of attempting to cover up the positive test by Manny Ramirez a few years ago. At this point in the on-going steroid/PED story I do not know what to believe. It would be easy to believe that everyone involved in any way is dirty and that no one undeserving has been smeared but I cannot force myself to believe it. I will be very happy when all facets of this story disappear forever.

The New York Newsday Story

Scott Boras statement on the accusations (added to the Newsday Story after the fact)

Mets GM Sandy Alderson has nothing good to say about Scott Boras

The 2014 MLB Season Awards

Despite having his worst full season in the majors Mike Trout finally won the American League MVP award. Though a .287/.377/.561 batting line with 36 homeruns and 16 stolen bases would be a career year for most players. For fantasy owners I'm sure the stolen base total was disappointing and perhaps a few owners were counting on a .300-plus batting average to pull up the rest of their team batting stats. Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs.com looks at how Trout was pitched in the second half of the season when he had a 30 percent strikeout rate. Personally I believe he will make the necessary adjustments to how he is pitched and continue to be one of the better players in the American League for another decade or so.

If I had a vote I would have given it to Giancarlo Stanton (he lets me call him Mike) for the National League MVP. I do not have a problem with pitchers winning the MVP award but I think that should only happen when the pitcher has an historic season and there is not a worthy performance by a batter. I do not believe that was the case this season. Stanton was outstanding this season and when you consider the overall decline of offense in MLB it was even more outstanding. A season of 6.1 fWAR, a 159wRC+, and 37 homeruns is a more than worthy MVP. The Miami Marlins were even in contention until late in the season thanks largely to his performance.

From MLBTradeRumors:

Trout’s 420 points were the most possible, and rounding out the top 10 in the AL were Victor Martinez (229), Michael Brantley (185), Jose Abreu (145), Jose Bautista (128), Robinson Cano (124), Nelson Cruz (102), Josh Donaldson (96), Miguel Cabrera (82) and Felix Hernandez (48). The full ballot is available in this Google doc from the BBWAA.

Kershaw edged out Marlins slugger Giancarlo Stanton, finishing with 355 points to 298. Behind Kershaw and Stanton in the top 10 were Andrew McCutchen (271), Jonathan Lucroy (167), Anthony Rendon (155), Buster Posey (152), Adrian Gonzalez (57), Adam Wainwright (53), Josh Harrison (52) and Anthony Rizzo (37). The full ballot is available in this Google Doc from the BBWAA.

 Jose Abreu finished fourth in the MVP race and was the first ROY for the Chicago White Sox since Ozzie Guillen in 1985. After a huge debut season it is tough to imagine him doing much better, but if you look at his season splits it might change your mind. hit .292/.342/.630 with an absurd 29 homeruns in 351 PA. The second half he batted .350/.435/.513 with seven homers in 271 PA. The obvious takeaway might be the decline in homerun rate. But Abreu played through a hamstring injury for most of the second half and hit .350 while major league pitchers were doing everything in their power to either get him out or keep him from clearing the bases with one swing. I think there is another MVP worthy season coming from Jose Abreu.

I was a little surprised that Jake deGrom was such an over whelming winner over Billy Hamilton. However he is more than worthy of the award. The first New York Met ROY since the great Dwight  Gooden in 1984. deGrom is essentially the product of a good arm on an intelligent and hard-working player receiving great coaching and rubbing shoulders with talented veterans.

Eno Sarris Breaks down deGrom's experience and development in the Minor Leagues (a must read)

Hamilton's stats certainly were not as good for fantasy purposes in the second half but there were signs that he was improving as a baseball player which can only be good for his current and future owners. His defense was outstanding and he showed guts continuing to go out there and battle. Hamilton has shown the ability to adjust in the minors and I think he will adjust again to the barrage of inside fastballs he saw in the second half. Unless you paid an absurd amount for him he should be worth keeping around just for the stolen bases as he continues to improve as a player.

From MLBTrade Rumors:

The Angels’ Matt Shoemaker (40 points), the Yankees’ Dellin Betances (27), the Astros’ Collin McHugh (21) the Yankees’ Masahiro Tanaka (16) rounded out the top five in the AL voting.  Billy Hamilton finished second in the NL balloting with 92 points, well ahead of the Cardinals’ Kolten Wong (14), the Phillies’ Ken Giles (8) and the Diamondbacks’ Ender Inciarte (4).

Ken Giles made an impression this season

From MLBTradeRumors:

Kershaw was a unanimous winner, with Johnny Cueto and Adam Wainwright finishing second and third, respectively. Madison Bumgarner finished in fourth place (obligatory caveat: votes were due before the postseason commenced), while Jordan Zimmermann, Cole Hamels, Zack Greinke, Doug Fister, Jake Arrieta, Craig Kimbrel, Stephen Strasburg and Henderson Alvarez rounded out the ballot. The award marks Kershaw’s third Cy Young in four seasons.

Kluber, a breakout star with the Indians, edged out Mariners ace Felix Hernandez, who finished second. Kluber received a total of 169 points in the voting, while Hernandez received 159. Rounding out the ballot were Chris Sale, Jon Lester, Max Scherzer, David Price, Phil Hughes, Wade Davis and Greg Holland. Kluber posted an 18-9 record with a 2.44 ERA, 10.3 K/9, 1.9 BB/9 and a 48 percent ground-ball rate in 235 2/3 innings.

The Re-Building Braves

The Dodgers were not the only team to revamp their front office this fall. They brought Roy Clark back to the organization and hired Gordon Blakeley as Special Assistants to the General Manager. Brian Bridges was promoted to scouting director. Not to mention being John Hart on as the General Manager. The Braves have entered if not quite a re-building period - it is at least a period of re-structuring that extends from the front office to the playing field.

Baseball America outlines the front office and scouting department changes the Braves have made.

John Hart denied that the Braves were shopping Evan Gattis despite the abundance of rumors to the contrary. The inexperienced Christian Bethancourt will be the primary starting catcher. If the Braves are not marketing Gattis they will need to find a place for him to play, which is likely what has gotten the media and other GMs speculating.

“We are coming in with the idea that we don’t have to trade anybody,” Hart said. “We have not made a call (to see if a team is interested in any player). We have received calls on people; we haven’t had any conversations yet. That (Gattis rumor) is absolutely inaccurate. And quite frankly, I think anybody that says that – if you look, I’ve got two corner outfielders who’ve got one year left (before free agency), and I’ve got one potential corner outfielder (Gattis) that’s got four years left (under contractual control).”

Despite this statement it seems almost certain that the Braves will deal one of their corner outfielders before the season. I am sure they would prefer to trade B.J. Upton, but that is extremely unlikely to happen. That means either Jason Heyward or Justin Upton, if not both, will be traded for some combination of prospects and pitchers they can control for several years.the Braves should be able to get whatever they need. There are so few quality and experienced bats available in trade, they should have multiple options.

But then there is this:

“Everybody mentions the two outfielders (as trade targets), but there’s other pieces on this club that we might consider (trading),” John Hart said. “There’s some bullpen pieces below Kimbrel. We’ve got some pieces that people like, it’s just a matter of trying to the right guys back where you’re going to say, this will allow us to win, or at least allow us to compete. That’s where we are this early in the winter. And I think it’d be a shame on us if we didn’t go out and explore that avenue first. Go out and see if we can make a deal to get pieces that we like.That will, even though we’ve got to subtract something, will still give the club a chance to compete.”

GM John Hart on the Gattis Rumors

The Braves GM of the Future

The Yankees are Making Moves

Pending a physical, the Yankees have agreed to a one-year, $2.5MM deal with free agent outfielder Chris Young. It sounds like the yanks will also attempt to re-sign their closer, David Robertson. but Cashman's recent comments also make it sound as if negotiations will either progress quickly or the Yankees will move on and accept the draft pick as compensation.

Brian Cashman on the 2015 Closer

Cashman on the Justin Wilson Acquisition

Chris Young Re-Signed

The Yankees Outfield

More A-Rod Crap

Other Links of Potential Interest to Fantasy Owners

The Royals are interested in acquiring 1B Ryan Howard

More on the Dodgers new methodology.

Pablo Sandoval is a hot commodity

The Angels have targeted Max Scherzer

The Cardinals have money to spend

Baseball America on Cuban Shortstop Roberto Baldoquin

Rays Montreal Rumors

Return of the Hot Stove Junkie!

Way back in the olden days of this blog when I was with RotoExperts.com I used to write a regular column called "The Hot Stove Junkie", it was essentially just a recap of news during the off-season and the potential fantasy impact (if any). It probably seems obvious at this point but I'm bringing it back to this blog as a regular feature as I knock the dust off this thing and get things cranked again. So let's get to it.

The Dodgers are Loading Up

The Los Angeles Dodgers are building a fantastic collection of front office talent.Farhan Zaidi from the Oakland Athletics is the new GM. Josh Brynes has been brought on as the new Vice President of Baseball Operations and will oversee the scouting and player development efforts. The one move I wish they had made was taking the opportunity to add Joe Maddon as the field manager. I grew up a Don Mattingly fan and he is a decent leadership guy, but he makes a lot of cringe-worthy in-game decisions. Hell, I'd take Maddon over just about any manager in the game at this point.

Great Profile on Farhan Zaidi, the Dodgers new General Manager

One of the things I expect to see from the Dodgers over the winter is a final solution to their outfield logjam. It worked out fine last season but the Dodgers need to start making room for younger players such as Joc Pederson. I think if Hanley Ramirez comes back (which I sincerely doubt) he will have to move to third base. Then they move Dee Gordon back to shortstop and create a spot for Alex Guerrero at second base (though he could be interested in a trade to the Florida Marlins, lol). Corey Seager will be up to play short or third before we know it so clearing a spot by not re-signing the declining Ramirez is a good idea. Of course the Dodgers are rumored to have looked into acquiring Chicago White Sox shortstop Alexei Ramirez, which would allow them to keep Gordon at second and use Guerrero as a utility player at multiple positions. Friedman is a fan of a strong bench and usually avoids carrying weak players just to fill spots. But more than anything I expect the Dodgers to

Minor League Players that may Impact the Dodgers 2015 Major League Roster

The Tampa Bay Rays Look to the Future

With Joe Maddon's defection to the Chicago Cubs and Friedman leaving to the Dodgers the Rays have no choice but to consider where they go from here. The 2014 season was supposed to be their season. They had their highest payroll ever and a loaded roster with the best manager in the game at the helm. But they flopped. A disappointing season that just seems to get worse and worse with each passing week. The rumors of the Rays bolting to Montreal are in full swing. I would not blame them if they did move. Though I guess they may soon be in a position to earn a lot more from their television contract, but with empty stands you have to question how much of a difference it would make.

The Rays Managerial Search Continues...

The Rays just traded bullpen lefty Cesar Ramos to the Angels for a struggling prospect in transition, Mark Sappington. This is exactly the type of move the Rays have excelled at making in the past - turning expensive parts into cheaper and younger long-term alternatives.

Ben Zobrist is relatively cheap compared to his production but the Rays could also be trading him and/or Yunel Escobar. It would essentially be a minor re-building of the team but that may not be the worst move at this point. So may teams seem to be searching for middle infielders that they could reap a huge haul of useful parts. Nick Franklin would then get an opportunity to play everyday at second or shortstop. I still think he will ultimately hit and hit well. 

From the L.A. Times:

03+Sappington, a fifth-round pick out of Rockhurst (Mo.) University in 2012, struggled as a starter at double-A Arkansas and Class-A Inland Empire this season, going 2-11 with a 7.05 ERA, 69 walks and 65 strikeouts in 81 2/3 innings.

But he thrived after moving to the bullpen in early July, finding better command of his fastball, which sits in the 96-mph range, and the sharpness of his slider.

Sappington was 2-0 with a 3.38 ERA and a .207 opponents' batting average in 25 games as a reliever. He struck out 49 and walked 10 in 32 innings. By the end of the season, he was closing for Inland Empire.

The Houston Astros Trade two prospects for Hank Conger

Conger is a decent bat at catcher who is also an excellent receiver behind the plate. He will back up Jason Castro for now at least but the Astros have four major league catchers now and that is almost certain to lead to a trade of one of the others. The Astros have had tons of interest in Castro and they could probably get a killing from a team that can't afford or loses out in the Russell Martin sweepstakes.

From MLB.com:

The Astros added to their depth at catcher on Wednesday by acquiring switch-hitter Hank Conger from the Los Angeles Angels in exchange for right-hander Nick Tropeano and Minor League catcher Carlos Perez. 

Perez, 24, spent the 2014 season at Triple-A Oklahoma City, where he hit .259 with 16 doubles, six homers and 34 RBIs in 88 games with the RedHawks. Tropeano, 24, made his Major League debut with Houston this season, starting four games for the Astros in September. A fifth-round pick in the 2011 Draft, Tropeano went 9-5 with a 3.03 ERA in 23 games (20 starts) at Triple-A in 2014.

The Los Angeles Angels are Making Moves

The Angels have already gotten to work re-building their bullpen and beefing up the farm system reserves with their two trades this week for lefty reliever Cesar Ramos and nearly ready prospects in right-handed starter Nick Tropeano and catcher Carlos Perez. These moves make a lot of sense to me. The bullpen definitely needs re-enforcements and the minor leagues are awfully thin on major league ready players.

The Angels get what they need without adding to the payroll.

Why Thinking Before You Trade Is So Important

So last week my local NL-Only league had its end-of-year banquet.  Over the course of the 2014 season I had traded all my minor league picks and all but one of my minor leaguers in my attempt to finish first. I fell from first days before the end of the season and finally finished in second place. I had a few early trades I wanted to propose in an attempt to rebuild my minor league system, hopefully while maintaining or improving my keepers as well. The banquet is usually a good place to make trade offers. The beer is flowing and everyone has baseball on the mind as we hand out the cash and watch the World Series.

One of the trades I had in mind was with one of the older veterans of the league. He is very good at this game but can sometimes focus on the surface value of a player over the long term value. Sometimes this gives him the reputation of trying to fleece other owners (which I'm sure he loves to do as much as anyone). The result is a weakness that creates an opening to acquire anyone on his roster that had a less than stellar season. I did my homework on his team and came up with a plan.

My plan was to offer the shiny and productive Daniel Murphy to my friend for one of his under performers and a sorely needed minor-league pick. My friend (call him Lee Roy), has a loaded roster and a full minor league system, including the much coveted Kris Bryant. I was not going to make an offer for Bryant (this league holds on to stud prospects like old-time prospectors would to a lump of gold). Instead, I wanted one of his early-round minor-league picks.I like Murphy but I fear the Mets will trade him (if he leaves the NL I just lose him) and did not see much upside as his value and salary basically broke even. Murphy was obviously too much to trade for a single pick. I targeted a player I am certain Lee would give up rather easily based on the prior season's results, Jean Segura.

Segura had a horrible season overall, that tragically included the death of his nine-month old son. But I really like the way he finished. He was walking more and being far less wreckless than he had been since the second half of the 2013 season and it was working. Fortunately his turn around was so far into his horrible season that few noticed or cared that he was showing improvement. I like him to rebound and have a strong 2015 season. I think he will hit .270 or better with around ten homers and 30-plus stolen bases. If he came close to that his salary would be a bargain. That plus the pick equaled Murphy for me.

So after putting all that thought into it, I made the offer to Lee and forgot to ask for the pick, that was so key to the whole trade. He instantly accepted and I agreed before I realized what I had done. So, you see what I mean?

This Won't Take Long...

On one of the popular fantasy baseball sites I keep reading a suggestion that has finally irked me back to the keyboard. The suggestion is that if a player has limited skills you should avoid him even if he's blisteringly hot, even if that player is freely available.

That is lunacy. 

When a player is hot you ride the hot streak until it ends. Sometimes a hot streak can continue throughout an entire season. We've seen it happen. Players have out-of-nowhere years that have little to do with their true skill levels and that you would never bet on them repeating. However, are you telling me you aren't interested in the 2014 version of Brady Anderson's 50 homer season? Of course you are.

Now is it better to cut out early or sell high on such a player than to hold on to him too long? Sure. But I'll keep throwing Mark Buerhle out there at least until he has a bad start or I get an offer for him that is a better long term value.

Skills are awesome but they are not everything in fantasy baseball.

2014 Quick Hits: Jarrod Dyson, Kansas City Royals

Jarrod Dyson may be a better player than Lorenzo Cain. However,  the Kansas City Royals have invested so much of their time and effort trying to make Cain their regular center fielder and leadoff hitter that they may have become blinded to the guy sitting on their bench. Dyson compares favorably to Cain in almost every category. They are both superior defensive players, Dyson walks more, strikes out less and last year he even showed more power than Cain. Dyson is an excellent player to stash on a bench or to fill a fifth outfielder slot in a deep league. If Lorenzo Cain continues to be injury prone Jarrod Dyson may prove a savvy choice as a sleeper for full-time at-bats. He stole 34 bases last season in just 239 plate appearances and steals are something fantasy owners can always use.

Fangraphs Page

Jarrod Dyson on Royals’ approach: ‘We’re going straight to the playoffs and nobody is stopping it’