Why Thinking Before You Trade Is So Important

So last week my local NL-Only league had its end-of-year banquet.  Over the course of the 2014 season I had traded all my minor league picks and all but one of my minor leaguers in my attempt to finish first. I fell from first days before the end of the season and finally finished in second place. I had a few early trades I wanted to propose in an attempt to rebuild my minor league system, hopefully while maintaining or improving my keepers as well. The banquet is usually a good place to make trade offers. The beer is flowing and everyone has baseball on the mind as we hand out the cash and watch the World Series.

One of the trades I had in mind was with one of the older veterans of the league. He is very good at this game but can sometimes focus on the surface value of a player over the long term value. Sometimes this gives him the reputation of trying to fleece other owners (which I'm sure he loves to do as much as anyone). The result is a weakness that creates an opening to acquire anyone on his roster that had a less than stellar season. I did my homework on his team and came up with a plan.

My plan was to offer the shiny and productive Daniel Murphy to my friend for one of his under performers and a sorely needed minor-league pick. My friend (call him Lee Roy), has a loaded roster and a full minor league system, including the much coveted Kris Bryant. I was not going to make an offer for Bryant (this league holds on to stud prospects like old-time prospectors would to a lump of gold). Instead, I wanted one of his early-round minor-league picks.I like Murphy but I fear the Mets will trade him (if he leaves the NL I just lose him) and did not see much upside as his value and salary basically broke even. Murphy was obviously too much to trade for a single pick. I targeted a player I am certain Lee would give up rather easily based on the prior season's results, Jean Segura.

Segura had a horrible season overall, that tragically included the death of his nine-month old son. But I really like the way he finished. He was walking more and being far less wreckless than he had been since the second half of the 2013 season and it was working. Fortunately his turn around was so far into his horrible season that few noticed or cared that he was showing improvement. I like him to rebound and have a strong 2015 season. I think he will hit .270 or better with around ten homers and 30-plus stolen bases. If he came close to that his salary would be a bargain. That plus the pick equaled Murphy for me.

So after putting all that thought into it, I made the offer to Lee and forgot to ask for the pick, that was so key to the whole trade. He instantly accepted and I agreed before I realized what I had done. So, you see what I mean?

This Won't Take Long...

On one of the popular fantasy baseball sites I keep reading a suggestion that has finally irked me back to the keyboard. The suggestion is that if a player has limited skills you should avoid him even if he's blisteringly hot, even if that player is freely available.

That is lunacy. 

When a player is hot you ride the hot streak until it ends. Sometimes a hot streak can continue throughout an entire season. We've seen it happen. Players have out-of-nowhere years that have little to do with their true skill levels and that you would never bet on them repeating. However, are you telling me you aren't interested in the 2014 version of Brady Anderson's 50 homer season? Of course you are.

Now is it better to cut out early or sell high on such a player than to hold on to him too long? Sure. But I'll keep throwing Mark Buerhle out there at least until he has a bad start or I get an offer for him that is a better long term value.

Skills are awesome but they are not everything in fantasy baseball.

2014 Quick Hits: Jarrod Dyson, Kansas City Royals

Jarrod Dyson may be a better player than Lorenzo Cain. However,  the Kansas City Royals have invested so much of their time and effort trying to make Cain their regular center fielder and leadoff hitter that they may have become blinded to the guy sitting on their bench. Dyson compares favorably to Cain in almost every category. They are both superior defensive players, Dyson walks more, strikes out less and last year he even showed more power than Cain. Dyson is an excellent player to stash on a bench or to fill a fifth outfielder slot in a deep league. If Lorenzo Cain continues to be injury prone Jarrod Dyson may prove a savvy choice as a sleeper for full-time at-bats. He stole 34 bases last season in just 239 plate appearances and steals are something fantasy owners can always use.

Fangraphs Page

Jarrod Dyson on Royals’ approach: ‘We’re going straight to the playoffs and nobody is stopping it’

24 Hour Fantasy Sports Network

THE WORLD'S FIRST
FANTASY SPORTS TV NETWORK SET TO LAUNCH

NEW YORK, NY- (Marketwire - January 14, 2014) - Anthem Media Group Inc., a global leader in operating niche television channels on linear, digital and mobile platforms, announced that the launch of the first ever 24-hour Fantasy Sports TV Network is set for March 4, 2014. The Fantasy Sports Network will begin serving its content on traditional, “over the top”, onlineand mobile video platforms throughout North America, offering interactive fantasy sports programming for a wide range of today's sports enthusiast in a linear stream, as a video on demand service and as an application.
Fantasy Sports Network will be the first TV network to have live studio programming, call in shows, panels, celebrity and expert drafts, reality programming, and on site commentary from sports venues, allspecifically targeted towardsthe estimated 40 million people who play fantasy sports annually and on a daily basis. The channel will engage and involve the fantasy sports community as no media company has ever done before, meeting the analytical, informational and breaking news needs in an entertaining environment.
“This project has been two years in the making, and we are thrilled that it has finally all come together,” said Leonard Asper, President and CEO of Anthem. “We are combining the television experience of the Anthem team with the fantasy sports expertise of Anthem’s Rotoexperts.com, and major partnerships across the industry, to form a unique, compelling and relevant offering for our audience,” he added.
“Through an aggregation of the best fantasy content and personalities in the industry, the Fantasy Sports Network will engage fantasy sports participants and consumers with industry experts, athletes, celebrity personalities and in general be the destination channel for the exploding world of fantasy sports,” said Chad Midgley, VP Content.
“The metrics behind our mission are mind boggling,” said Louis M. Maione, Chief Strategy Officer of the Fantasy Sports Network, "With the fantasy sports industry growing more rapidly and arguably larger than the business of underlying sports themselves, the time to create a multi-faceted media property for this industry is now,” said Maione.
In addition to a daily flagship studio program, Anthem has an agreement with SiriusXM Radio to simulcast three daily hours of the widely popular morning drive-time “RotoExperts in the Morning” program from 6-9 a.m. on the new network. Regarded as the one of the best showcases of fantasy sports information and entertainment in the industry, the morning drive programming on the SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio Channel (Sirius Channel 210, XM Channel 87) has aired since the channel’s launch on July 1, 2010 and is hosted by a stable of notable RotoExperts industry stalwarts such as inaugural FSWA Hall of Famer Scott Engel, Adam Ronis, Mark "Dr. Roto" Bloom, Tony Cincotta, Mike Cardano, Lenny Melnick, Drew Dinkmeyer and Mike Leone. Anthem programming partners also include Jon Klein, former President of CNN US and Jeff Gaspin, former Chairman of NBC Universal Television, and the company previously announced that NFL Hall of Famer Chris Doleman has also joined the Anthem group as Executive Vice President of business development.
Several programming and marketing partnerships are being finalized with industry leaders and will be announced in the coming weeks, ensuring a robust programming offering that will engage viewers while providing the necessary information for the “hard core” fantasy sports player.
The network will also be supported by itsflagship fantasy property RotoExperts.com, and its widely popular sports pop culture site SportsGrid.com, both of which were purchased in 2013 from an ownership group led by fantasy sports industry pioneer Louis M. Maione and Abrams Media founder and television personality, Dan Abrams. The two sites feature a number of popular video personalities and a family of notable industry journalists, which will all be cross promoting video content on the Fantasy Sports Network.
“With the growth of this industry exploding as technological advances in interfaces, devices and statistical data aggregation allow players to easily check scores, adjust rosters, interact and communicate from anywhere and on any device, the idea that this could be a 24/7 TV network was a logical progression for us,” said Asper.“It fits perfectly with Anthem’s strategy of building multiplatform media assets around communities of interest, and we will use our other TV properties to promote the network as well”, he concluded.
Anthem Media Group Inc. is a media company with offices and studios in New York, Toronto and Los Angeles, operating niche television channels on linear, digital and mobile platforms globally. In addition to the Fantasy Sports Network, RotoExperts.com, a leader in fantasy sports content, Fight Network, the world's premier combat sports channel now broadcasting in the US and over 30 other countries, and is a significant investor in the Pursuit Channel, one of the top outdoor channels in the U.S. Anthem also owns SportsGrid.com, a leader in general sports entertainment commentary.

For More Information Contact:

Chad Midgley
VP Content, Anthem Media Group
chad@anthemmediagroupinc.com

2014 Quick Hits: Doug Fister, Washington Nationals

I think Fister has been underrated the last few years. He did seem to come out of nowhere and excelled with the Detroit Tigers under less than ideal circumstances for a control pitcher. Pitching in front of a defense that at its best did very little to assist the pitching staff, Fister excelled. But he can be even better. His strikeout numbers are no great shakes but the move to the National League should provide a small boost.

Pitching in the National League in front of a far superior defensive team, Fister should see his WHIP drop like a rock. If you still have your doubts about Fister consider this: Of starters with at least 75 innings pitched, Fister's 2.04 ERA is the lowest of any active starter against National League teams according to the Washington Post. I think He's a top 25 starter this season, easy.

2014 Quick Hits: Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels

Mike Trout is the best player in the game, both real and fantasy. He does it all, he hits for average, has 30-homerun power, and steals bases. We can also expect the lineup around Trout to improve a bit with Albert Pujols almost certainly healthier and Josh Hamilton should be better, even if he never returns to his MVP form. Trout is worthy of the first overall pick in leagues of all formats for which he qualifies. At just 22-years old we'll probably see him there for a while. There has been a lot of talk about his weight and training techniques but I do not believe there is anything to be concerned about here.

550 at-bats, .315/.400/.550, 30 HR, 115 Runs, 100 RBI, 35 SBs

Quick Hits: Adam Eaton, Chicago White Sox

Former All-Star Center Fielder Brett Butler on Adam Eaton:

"We were playing Sacramento -- the Yankees of our Pacific Coast League --- and we hated them, and they hated us," says Butler, who managed Eaton at Triple-A Reno last summer. "Before the game I told Adam, you haven't bunted in a while, this is going to be part of your game going forward, so you should bunt. So in his first at bat, he drags one to first, and gets on base. Second time up, he bunts it to first again, and then he does it again --- three times in a row. And now the other team is just mad. So, of course, when he comes up again, they hit him. He gets on base, steals second, steals third and then spits on them." Butler laughs. "That's him, in a nutshell."

That's probably enough to get you excited about him but there is a lot more to him than just gumption and speed. Eaton has power that seems to defy the realities of his 5'8 body. He hits for average. In the minors he hit over .300 at every level and usually well over that mark. His on-base percentages have been over .400, usually well over that mark. If he receives the regular at-bats he is due, 30-40 stolen bases are also quite likely.

600 at-bats, .285/.370/.420, 10 HR, 90 Runs, 55 RBI, 30 SBs