An Interview With Larry Schechter

Larry Schechter's new book has the fantasy industry extremely excited. He is not your typical fantasy expert. You can check out his website for all the praise for his new book and my review of the book (which I loved) is here.

Larry graciously agreed to answer a few questions for us:

I've read that you first discovered fantasy baseball through a magazine article. What was the very first fantasy league you played in and how did you do? Do you still play in a local league?

Not correct. I first heard an ad on the radio when living in Boston for a company called the "World of Sports." It sounded interesting and I joined. It was just one guy who started a company to run leagues. We had the draft by a conference call (back then, it was the only way to do it if you couldn't be in person).

I don't remember how I did in that league. I've never played in a local league. The first time I did an auction/draft in person was when I joined LABR and then later Tout Wars. Being in those leagues I think must be fairly similar to a local league, because I see a lot of the same guys every year at the auctions and many of us talk via e-mail, twitter, etc.

Was becoming a member of Tout Wars a goal of yours or just a by-product of doing so well in the national competitions? Did you ever actually plan to become an industry expert?

When I won CDM in 2002, they had a deal with LABR that part of the prize for winning CDM was to play in LABR the next year. I was very happy to get a chance to do that. It was only a one-year prize, so after 2003 I was no longer in LABR.

But after getting a taste of it, I wanted to get back in, and was able to work out a deal with Dennis Lepore of the Sandlot Shrink. I did a little writing and advice stuff for the Sandlot Shrink, and represented them in one of their LABR leagues.

When I also got an invitation to play in Tout Wars, that was a nice surprise.

Your book - Winning Fantasy Baseball - has been a huge hit in the industry so far. How are you planning to build on that success? Do you have another book in you or perhaps a more traditional sort of fantasy guide?

I don't have any plans, but it's possible I might write a second baseball book or a football book some day. I have no desire to get into a fantasy guide, web site, player projections or anything like that.

 What was the easiest portion of your book to write? Why?

There were a lot of different parts that were pretty easy to write, once I could get myself to sit down and actually do it. But overall it was a lot of work...and then a lot of work to re-write and edit. There was a point where I had about 100,000 words and was on track to have about 150,000 total, which I realized was way too long. I had a bit of a breakthrough when I was able to look at everything I'd written in a different light and started cutting out all kinds of unnecessary and redundant stuff, and I got the final manuscript down to about 95,000 words.
 
What was the most difficult portion? Why?

The value formula, because it's so confusing a topic. I think that I did a good job of summarizing it all and making it as simple as possible for people to understand.

When you walk into draft room, what do you absolutely always have? Does it vary much by draft-type? Have you ever tried using a computer during a live draft?

I have a list of all players, by position, which I've printed out from an Alpha4 database (somewhat similar to Excel). This lists my stat projections, dollar value, etc. I have a draft sheet where I fill in my team and projected stats as I get players. For auctions I have a "target list" and for snake drafts a "flow chart" (which are both described in my book). I have a pad of paper, calculator and highlighter. And I have my cell phone to check player news just before the draft and once or twice during the draft. (You never know when some big news might break.)

The only thing I've ever used a computer for is to add up the stats of the players I draft and keep a running total, because it's a little easier than doing it by hand. But I rarely bother with a computer, because of space limitations. I'd rather use the space to spread out my player sheets.

 I get the feeling you're a fan of Jacoby Ellsbury. How do you think he'll do in New York? Do you tend to avoid players in their first season with a new team?

I was a fan. Now that he's with the Yankees, not as much (because I'm a die-hard Red Sox fan).
I'm not mad at him or calling him a traitor, like some Red Sox fans, but for anyone who is mad, I've got a nickname to suggest--along the lines of that other traitor, Johnny Demon. I would call him Jacoby Can-Go-to Hellsbury.

He should do great in NY, if he can stay healthy. That's always going to be the concern with him, unless he can string together several years of 150+ games.

I wouldn't avoid, nor would I target, someone switching teams.


The Red Sox seem determined to go forward with Jackie Bradley Jr., Xander Bogaerts, Wil Middlebrooks. Are you a fan of the youth movement in Boston? Do you follow the minors much?

As a fan, I wish they'd re-signed Ellsbury or gotten Beltran or Choo. I'm not sure Jackie Bradley is ready. But after last year, I'm not going to complain or question anything they do. Last opening day, I was quite sure they wouldn't win 81 games.

I was very impressed with Bogaerts plate discipline, especially against Detroit in the playoffs. When everyone else was striking out, he was taking close pitches. I think he's going to be good...but how good and how fast, I don't know.

 I'm guessing Middlebrooks is going to be okay, but he's not a sure thing. I was surprised, and disappointed by how much he struggled last year (I owned him on a couple of teams).

I've managed to interview a few Touts  (Lenny Melnick and Cory Schwartz) and I always ask the same question? Do you have the juice to get me an invite?

Nope, all I can do is put in a good word for you.

Are you enjoying our New Years Nor'easter? Can you get the kids to shovel your snow?

I'm enjoying it more than the people who are going to be at the 49ers-Packers game this weekend in sub-zero weather. It's a nice, toasty 72 degrees in my house.

I can barely get the kids to take out the garbage or wash a couple of dishes...shoveling is not going to happen. But my driveway is really, really long, so I need a plow, anyway.

Larry Schechter's Winning Fantasy Baseball: A Review

I cannot recommend Larry Schechter's new book - Winning Fantasy Baseball enough. 

There are many books about Fantasy Baseball and I have read a lot of them. I have read the fantasy baseball books by familiar names like Golenbock, Patton, Waggoner, Benson and Shandler and I've read many of the not so familiar names - Childs, Hendricks... Let's just say that If you've written a fantasy guide and wondered who that buyer on amazon was - look no further. I typically buy half a dozen of the fantasy annuals/packages and a bunch of magazines to boot. I know how much information is out there.  I wanted to point out just how much fantasy material I have read and continue to read so that my next statement has the weight it deserves.

Whether your goal is to learn to play fantasy baseball, get better at fantasy baseball or to re-gain an edge you may have lost over the years, there is no book more likely to help you win a fantasy league than Winning Fantasy Baseball: Secret Strategies of a Nine-Time National Champion

That may seem like high praise and it certainly is. This is not your typical fantasy guide full of player blurbs, sleepers and pages and pages of player statistics and values. Instead this book is very simply a guide to playing and winning at fantasy baseball. This book offers a very logical approach to fantasy baseball that anyone could follow and adapt to the time they devote to fantasy baseball preparation. If you are anything like me you realize how similar most fantasy guides are in the advice that they offer. Larry's book is different. In fact, depending on how attached you are to the typical views that so many so-called experts have pounded into your thoughts, the material presented could prove to be anywhere from enlightening to infuriating!

For those that do not know, Larry won his third straight AL-Tout Wars Championship in 2013 and USA Today's LABR-AL as well. He is making beating the fantasy industry's experts look deceptively simple. Like many of us, Larry Schechter began playing fantasy sports in the early 90's. He started making a name for himself in the 2002 CDM Diamond Challenge when he finished first and won a $25,000 grand prize. Then he did it again in 2005 becoming the first person to win the Diamond Challenge twice. Anyone who trounces the best competition that Tout-Wars and LABR and the Nationwide Contests have to offer, probably has some advice and perspectives worth your consideration.

This book includes the standard how-to-play fantasy baseball rules but more importantly a step-by-step guide to preparing for the fantasy season, drafting your team and managing your team during the season. Exploring the differences between various leagues types as he goes. Along the way Larry introduces us to the ideas and methods that separate him from most fantasy experts. These ideas include everything from how to calculate player values to optimizing your seating during the draft. These ideas include:

1. The Importance of Being Prepared -  Larry believes that one of the primary factors in his success is his willingness to take the time to properly prepare and through preparation simplifying the draft process.

2. Calculating Player Values and Utilizing Them - In Larry's view there is very little more important to winning fantasy baseball (or any other fantasy sport) than calculating player values and then acquiring as much of that value as possible.

3. The Value of Sabermetrics and How and How Not to Use Them for Fantasy Baseball - Larry shows how the improper use of advanced statistical measures can actually hurt your fantasy preparation. It is all about the context.

4. The Draft Curve and How Position Scarcity is Mostly Nonsense - You will not have any problem finding a dozen articles that insist that there is position scarcity and that those that ignore it are bound to suffer. Larry uses his draft curve to demonstrate how little effect so-called scarcity has.

5. Optimal Bidding Strategies and How to Make the Most of Auction Nominations - I have heard a thousand times from hundreds of fantasy owners that early in an auction you should not name the players you actually want. Larry shows how silly this notion is.

I think it is very important to point out that this book does not prepare you for the draft. This book teaches you how to prepare. While Larry believes that owners should create and use their own player values (and he explains how this creates an advantage) this book would also be an excellent complement to many of the available player/strategy guides. If you read between the lines a bit you will realize how easy it is to use Larry's ideas with your favorite expert projections. If you are math or Excel-phobic or intimidated by the idea of creating your own player values, you can always use an excellent tool like Rotolab. With Rotolab you can plug the calculations Larry teaches you to make directly into the program. You can also use Rotolab to build your own player values and the program will do all the calculations for you.

Larry's book is truly great and a very fun read. In addition to all the knowledge that he shares on player values and draft strategies, you will enjoy the stories about Tout Wars and other leagues in which Larry has participated. If anything the book is too short, I would happily devour another hundred pages on keeper and dynasty leagues. The book is available on Amazon right now, go get it!

2013 Baseball Solstice

The Baseball Solstice draws nigh. This Sunday, Dec. 29, marks the midpoint between the end of the World Series and the beginning of Spring Training games in Arizona and Florida.

http://ballcapsblog.com/2013/12/27/its-nearly-time-to-celebrate-the-2013-baseball-solstice/

2014 Quick Hits: Justin Grimm

At this point Justin Grimm is technically still a competitor for the fifth spot in the Cubs rotation. However the Chicago Cubs are determined to bring in more rotation depth that would push Justin Grimm to the bullpen. Grimm has also been mentioned as a potential closer if the club fails to acquire a more established candidate. Pedro Strop and Hector Rondon would also be considerations in that role. All three three have the power arms that most clubs prefer in the ninth inning.

Grimm has had mostly mediocre results as a starter but has solid command of a mid-90's fastball and a potentially plus curveball. His work ethic has been praised and he could still develop into a solid mid-rotation option. Still, as is to expected, Grimm has looked very good as a reliever in small samples. With very few options on the current roster and the Cubs considering the Axford's of the world as possibilities, Grimm has great sleeper potential as a closer.

Links of Note:

Fangraphs Page

Scouting Report

Closer Potential

2014 Quick Hits: Juan Lagares

 

Juan Lagares is expected to be the Mets starting center fielder this season but can he hit? 

Juan Lagares is expected to be the Mets starting center fielder to begin the 2014 season. Lagares is an excellent defensive outfielder. He has excellent instincts and hands and has developed a unique style that has him positioned closer to the infield than most center fielders. His arm is rated by most scouts as average but his instincts and accuracy with it makes it score like Thor tossing his hammer. 

For fantasy purposes Lagares is no great shakes but he has made slow but steady improvement over the years. He will draw the occasional walk (though he is still below average in this area) and makes excellent contact. What he lacks is power. He should be good for a decent batting average based on a large number of ground balls and above average speed, and his recent track record in the minors. Some scouts report that he did square up the ball well in the minors, if he learns to do so in the majors he could become a regular .280-.290 hitter. He should also steal a few bases though he has never been particularly aggressive in this area he could steal 15-20 in a full season of play.

Links of Note:

Juan Lagares FanGraphs.com Page

Prospect Pulse Scouting Report 

Juan Lagares: Assasin of Runners

Tips for Draft Domination

Originally produced for BigLeaguesMagazine  (they're gone now :( ) 

Let history inform your choices

If you have access look back at past drafts and search for trends in your fellow owners. Does one owner consistently draft young lefty pitchers? Does another fixate on much publicized sleepers? Does yet another owner always seem to have the best minor leaguers? Knowledge of your rivals gives you a degree of power over them. Call out the names of players that fit their typical plans early or force them to bid an extra dollar or two. Many owners struggle to adjust when their draft plans go awry. You can be the owner to make that happen. Let history be your guide.

Have a plan…any plan

Even a bad plan is better than not having one. It could be as simple as category goals to reach by the end of the draft (part of most good plans). It could be more complicated than Warren Buffet’s tax returns. The important thing is to have a plan of attack and to do your best to implement it. Owners without some sort of plan are more likely to forget about key players or to mess up their budgeting during an auction. There are tons of ready-made plans you can use, just adjust them to your league and the players available. If you need more ideas perform a web search for fantasy baseball strategies. I love it when a plan comes together.

Be ready to adjust when things do not go your way

Are you one of the more successful owners in your league? In many leagues the best owners will find themselves in bidding wars over any player they show even a smidge of interest in owning. Their rivals can seem more concerned with messing them up than in actually building their own winning teams. Having a decent Plan B can be the difference between a good draft day and disaster. The best way to avoid the need for an alternate plan is to have a plan with built-in options so that you are not easily hurt by those plotting against you. Is that paranoia? Not if they are out to get you.

Get your share of the Top Talent

In any draft there will be a few players that stand above the rest. In keeper leagues it is very possible there are only four or five players available with typical first round value. You should make a point of acquiring at least your share of that top talent and ideally you’ll be able to get someone else’s share of the top talent as well. The better your keeper list the more important this becomes. You do not want owners with weak keepers to be able to catch up to you just by drafting more of the top talent. It is vital to identify the best players available and decide how much of it you need to grab for yourself. Never decide you have enough to win. Be greedy.

Watch the scarce positions closely

Shortstop and second base are very shallow positions this year and though first base is deep the top tier is not deep at all and the fall to the second tier is longer than usual in my opinion. The top tier at first (in whatever order) looks like Joey Votto, Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder with everyone in the second tier having some problem or question about their potential production. At second base it looks like Robinson Cano and everyone else. I love Ian Kinsler, Dustin Pedroia and Jason Kipnis but each has issues that prevent them from being in the top tier. Shortstop is just Jose Reyes and Pray Tulo Stays Healthy. There is nothing wrong with being an elitist in fantasy baseball.

Yes, Starting Pitching is deeper but…

Many experienced owners have long practiced waiting until the mid-rounds to start building their pitching staffs. With the number of great young pitchers on the rise some owners have fooled themselves into believing they can wait until the late rounds to collect starting pitchers. That may be possible in some very shallow leagues but if you want the opportunity to score big in the pitching categories you will need to collect some of the top two tiers of starters rather than settling for the leftovers. The pitchers at the end of the draft may seem a lot better than in years past but the best pitchers are also a lot better. So do not wait too long to get your first few starting pitchers. Unless you like having the worst pitching in your fantasy league that is.

Go ahead and pay for saves

If the top closers – Craig Kimbrel, Jason Motte, Rafael Soriano and maybe Jonathan Papelbon – are available go ahead and buy one if the price is not terribly inflated. The closer position is so unstable that getting one of the top three guys could give you a huge advantage over your competition. However, if you miss out on the top three, maybe four, I suggest you wait and take the cheapest options available. Don’t avoid the category altogether in your draft as too many people are watching the waiver wire for possible saves these days. Your goal is to either get the safest options or the cheapest ones. No one likes being in the middle anyway.

Crave power above all things

The big homerun numbers have not gone away completely but when you get past the first two tiers of players the homeruns are just not available the way they used to be. Stolen bases on the other hand seem to be available at the end of drafts. There are more and more players on rosters (some do not even start) that can give you 10-20 stolen bases. Power hitters are much rarer. I like to grab power hitters that steal bases rather than devote any spots to pure base stealers. Those players are obviously much coveted by smart owners. Make the most of your dollars by avoiding the ones that could be batting average liabilities and spending a few more bucks on the best available five category hitters. Power does not just corrupt, it rules.

Stretch your draft day budget to the limit

Plan to own a few one dollar players. I try to create budget depth by planning to have a least one dollar player in each position group – one catcher, one corner, one middle infielder, one outfielder, one starting pitcher and one relief pitcher. This gives me a greater opportunity to own a top tier player in each position group as well. If you plan and execute well your one dollar guys will also be excellent sleepers. I often manage this by drafting young or inexperienced but also potential laden players in those low budget spots. Last season C John Jaso, 3B Kyle Seager, SS Everth Cabrera, OF Michael Saunders, SP Hisashi Iwakuma RP Fernando Rodney were excellent one dollar choices (wow, the Mariners dominated the end game!). Some early picks for dollar spots this season are C Erik Kratz, 2B Matt Carpenter, 3B Brent Morel, SP David Phelps and RP Sean Doolittle. If you can’t be rich, create the illusion that you are.

Dominate the End Game

Owners should attempt to save enough auction dollars to allow you to spend two or three bucks each on your last two or three players. This will eliminate the possibility that you spend the end of the auction getting outbid on players you can only nominate for a buck. At the end of most draft days there are a few players that stand out from the dregs. Perhaps talented rookies or veterans with uncertain playing time are still on the board. Most owners would prefer to avoid drafting the Michael Martinez types out of pure necessity so save a few bucks. Fill your roster with talent at every opportunity. Make your draft good to the very last spot.

Building a Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy

By Jon Williams | @bigjonwilliams

Originally written for Big Leagues Magazine Before the start of the 2013 season.

The worst thing you can do going into a fantasy draft or auction you plan to dominate is to go in without a plan. A plan gives your draft day efforts a structure. Your plan should build towards the goal of bringing you a fantasy baseball championship. Without a plan you will make more mistakes on Draft Day. You will choose the wrong players and miss your statistical goals. You can know the player pool as well as anyone but in a competitive league you will lose without a plan. If you have no idea how to put together an effective plan, this is your lucky day.

Build Around Your League Rules

Every draft advice column seems to remind owners to check their league rules. You see it so often because it is of vital importance to winning a league. Slight variations in league rules can cause drastic changes to the value of a given player. Adam Dunn may be just a later round’s consideration in a typical league but in a league that replaces AVG with OBP he becomes a much more important player. In a Head 2 Head league, drafting a balanced team is much less important than in a standard Rotisserie League. In other leagues starting pitchers may be the most important players available. In a 10-team mixed league that drafts just three outfielders per team, outfielders are plentiful. In an AL-only league with 13 teams, that is not the case. Study your league rules and measure the impact those rules will have on your play. Imputing your data into draft day software like RotoLab can make the job much simpler.

Establish and Build Toward Your Goals

My goal is always to win and it never changes. Not every owner likes to play that way, particularly in keeper leagues. Some owners like to rebuild with cheap keepers and minor leaguers until they have a team they feel can win several seasons in a row. In re-draft leagues, I have known owners to build rosters with quirky handicaps such as all lefty pitchers, an All-Visa Team, and no player over 27-years old. Your goal for the draft should match your goals for the season. If you just want to have fun, a quirky draft goal is just fine, but if the goal is to win, save the quirky ideas for a different league.

Whatever your goal, it is important that you commit to that goal for as long as possible. If your goal changes more often than necessary, it will worsen your chances of achieving anything. But there are times during the season when you may have to re-work your season goals. You may decide that you cannot finish first at some point. At that point depending on your position in the standings and the composition of your roster, you might decide that finishing in the money while setting up for 2014 is a more attainable goal. Others may decide to dump their present assets and enter a re-building mode. I am on record saying that re-building is for wussies but there comes a time during a season where setting up for the following season becomes the best option.

Choose Your Keepers Carefully

Your keepers should always fit your overall plans. If they do not fit your plan, you may want to come up with a new plan (or at least trade for players that do fit). You should always rank your potential keepers in the order in which they can help your winning strategy. If you plan to focus on high-average, power hitters to complement your cheap (but great) starting pitching, an “at-value” Prince Fielder is probably a better keeper than your slightly underpriced Garrett Jones. You want your keepers to work with your strengths not against them. Your great starting pitching is less effective if you also keep your one dollar Carlos Zambrano because he used to be your favorite Cubs starter.

Now, just because your primary strategy is built on high-average, power hitters and great starting pitchers, that does not mean that you should toss back your $10 Jean Segura. Segura may not hit for power or much of a batting average, but his indicators suggest his average will not be a negative and his steals potential may make it much easier for you to concentrate on the power hitters during the draft. The same cannot be said about your $15 Everth Cabrera who may steal a ton of bases, but has the potential to pull down your team batting average. It may be possible to account for this drag but a better idea is to trade for a player or players that better fit your strategy. Andrelton Simmons may cost you five extra bucks but also saves you the hassle of trying to balance a bad BA player before the draft even starts.

You also need to study the rosters of your competitors. You should have your best guess at the keepers on the other teams before deciding on yours. This is important because keepers can take a huge chunk out of the potential player pool on several levels. You could find that certain positions are going to be extremely scarce on Draft Day. If ten of the 15 potential closers in your 12-team league are held by the owners of just six teams buying a closer at the draft could get expensive. That might make your $18 Rafael Betancourt a better keeper than you originally supposed. The players you should target should be the players that will help you win. Values and profits are very important but the way they fit into your draft strategy is just as important.

Study the Player Pool

After your league’s keepers have been calculated to the best of your ability, it is time to study the player pool in depth. You need to know what positions remain to be filled on every team’s roster. How many catchers, first basemen, second basemen and so forth will be needed to fill each open spot? In deeper leagues there could be more spots than acceptable players. Understanding the depth available (or not available) at each position will help you prepare a strategy that accounts for positions that may be short on talent. In addition to finding where the talent shortages are, you also want to find where (if anywhere) there might be abundance.
You should be able to find some bargains within the talent abundant positions that make nice targets for your draft plan. Bargains are important because with a limited budget you need to acquire as much talent as possible. The bargains also give you the extra budget to afford expensive superstars. Where there is scarce talent, you will have to prepare to pay a premium. Draft inflation can cause even the bottom tier of talent at scarce positions to cost much more than the value of their stats. Because of this, you are sometimes better off paying for the better talents available at thin positions.

Use League History to Establish Category Goals

The typical strategy here is to plan on finishing third in each category. That is nice. If you meet those goals you will probably field a competitive team with a decent shot at winning. Personally, I advise a more aggressive strategy. Plan to finish first in each category. You probably will not, but that is not the point. The point is to force you to draft not just solid performers, but also more players with upside. Marco Scutaro is a fine player who will help a lot of fantasy teams this year. However, if for the same draft day cost you could draft Jedd Gyorko you may want to consider going with the talented rookie with upside. It does not need to be just rookies either. Assume you have had a fine draft and are entering the dollars days’ portion of the auction. You could be considering names like Delmon Young and Chris Heisey, solid players who should get some playing time. But also available is Jordany Valdespin who is not as established but has a full-time starting opportunity and a minor league record that indicates he has the potential for 15 homers and 20-plus stolen bases with a decent batting average.

The Heart of Your Plan is in the Roster Design

You should choose some player targets at their projected costs whether in auction dollars or draft rounds. Experimenting with various team compositions can help you shape your draft strategy. There are the standard draft plans such as Stars and Scrubs, Spread the Risk, The LIMA Plan, Portfolio 3 and the Mayberry Plan (a web search will provide all the details you need on all of these ideas) and hundreds of plans devised by experienced owners that have no names. But no matter what plan you use to design your eventual roster, you are essentially deciding how many of the following player types you need to roster.

• Star Players – The studs. These are the best players available. They either contribute to five categories (in standard 5×5 leagues) or are exceptional in three or four categories. Every winning team needs to have their fair share of star players. In a 12 team league if there are 15 star players available you should own two of them. This is where the bulk of a team’s value rests. Ryan Braun, Matt Kemp, Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, Robinson Cano, Jose Reyes and Miguel Cabrera are good examples of Star Players in standard leagues.

• Potential Breakouts – These players have a solid track record and an established value in fantasy leagues but skills that suggest greater upside–perhaps even the ability to become star players. Every team should own as many of this type of player as possible. Austin Jackson, Giancarlo Stanton, Jason Heyward, Carlos Gomez, Starlin Castro, Stephen Strasburg and Kris Medlin are good examples of potential breakout players.

• Category Target Players – These players are not stars and usually only excel in one or two categories. Most closers and many speedsters fit into this category. These players are usually used as complements to well-rounded players to meet category goals. You do not need to own players in this category but they are often helpful. Juan Pierre, Everth Cabrera, Brandon League, Huston Street, Adam Dunn and Ben Revere are good examples of category target players.

• Sleepers – These are players not highly regarded but have skills or a new opportunity or circumstance that suggests their values could rise sharply. Every team should have one or two sleepers as this is the best way to build a team with a value much higher than its cost. That sort of profit is what turns contenders into champions. Jordany Valdespin, Cliff Pennington, Justin Ruggiano, Adam Lind and Logan Morrison are some decent sleepers.

• Rookies – These players have very little experience in the major leagues if any at all. Most analysts will suggest you avoid rookies as they often underperform their skills. But rookies, like sleepers, can be hugely valuable to a team. When they do perform, their value often far exceeds their draft day cost. Rostering the right rookie at a minimal cost is like purchasing a lottery pick. Mike Trout and Bryce Harper are examples of winning lottery tickets. This season, Jedd Gyorko, Jean Segura, Dylan Bundy and Gerrit Cole are examples of rookies that could pay off big for fantasy owners.

It cannot be stressed enough how important it is to have a well-thought-out plan for Draft Day. Executing that plan can be difficult as other owners are certain to covet some of the same players and force you to either pay more or alter your strategies. Consider various options for every component of your plan and the odds of things going drastically wrong shrink. Going into draft day without a plan is planning to fail.