By Jon Williams | @bigjonwilliams
Originally written for Big Leagues Magazine Before the start of the 2013 season.
The worst thing you can do going into a fantasy draft or auction you
plan to dominate is to go in without a plan. A plan gives your draft day
efforts a structure. Your plan should build towards the goal of
bringing you a fantasy baseball championship. Without a plan you will
make more mistakes on Draft Day. You will choose the wrong players and
miss your statistical goals. You can know the player pool as well as
anyone but in a competitive league you will lose without a plan. If you
have no idea how to put together an effective plan, this is your lucky
day.
Build Around Your League Rules
Every draft advice column seems to remind owners to check their
league rules. You see it so often because it is of vital importance to
winning a league. Slight variations in league rules can cause drastic
changes to the value of a given player. Adam Dunn may be just a later
round’s consideration in a typical league but in a league that replaces
AVG with OBP he becomes a much more important player. In a Head 2 Head
league, drafting a balanced team is much less important than in a
standard Rotisserie League. In other leagues starting pitchers may be
the most important players available. In a 10-team mixed league that
drafts just three outfielders per team, outfielders are plentiful. In an
AL-only league with 13 teams, that is not the case. Study your league
rules and measure the impact those rules will have on your play.
Imputing your data into draft day software like
RotoLab can make the job much simpler.
Establish and Build Toward Your Goals
My goal is always to win and it never changes. Not every owner likes
to play that way, particularly in keeper leagues. Some owners like to
rebuild with cheap keepers and minor leaguers until they have a team
they feel can win several seasons in a row. In re-draft leagues, I have
known owners to build rosters with quirky handicaps such as all lefty
pitchers, an All-Visa Team, and no player over 27-years old. Your goal
for the draft should match your goals for the season. If you just want
to have fun, a quirky draft goal is just fine, but if the goal is to
win, save the quirky ideas for a different league.
Whatever your goal, it is important that you commit to that goal for
as long as possible. If your goal changes more often than necessary, it
will worsen your chances of achieving anything. But there are times
during the season when you may have to re-work your season goals. You
may decide that you cannot finish first at some point. At that point
depending on your position in the standings and the composition of your
roster, you might decide that finishing in the money while setting up
for 2014 is a more attainable goal. Others may decide to dump their
present assets and enter a re-building mode. I am on record saying that
re-building is for wussies but there comes a time during a season where
setting up for the following season becomes the best option.
Choose Your Keepers Carefully
Your keepers should always fit your overall plans. If they do not fit
your plan, you may want to come up with a new plan (or at least trade
for players that do fit). You should always rank your potential keepers
in the order in which they can help your winning strategy. If you plan
to focus on high-average, power hitters to complement your cheap (but
great) starting pitching, an “at-value” Prince Fielder is probably a
better keeper than your slightly underpriced Garrett Jones. You want
your keepers to work with your strengths not against them. Your great
starting pitching is less effective if you also keep your one dollar
Carlos Zambrano because he used to be your favorite Cubs starter.
Now, just because your primary strategy is built on high-average,
power hitters and great starting pitchers, that does not mean that you
should toss back your $10 Jean Segura. Segura may not hit for power or
much of a batting average, but his indicators suggest his average will
not be a negative and his steals potential may make it much easier for
you to concentrate on the power hitters during the draft. The same
cannot be said about your $15 Everth Cabrera who may steal a ton of
bases, but has the potential to pull down your team batting average. It
may be possible to account for this drag but a better idea is to trade
for a player or players that better fit your strategy. Andrelton Simmons
may cost you five extra bucks but also saves you the hassle of trying
to balance a bad BA player before the draft even starts.
You also need to study the rosters of your competitors. You should
have your best guess at the keepers on the other teams before deciding
on yours. This is important because keepers can take a huge chunk out of
the potential player pool on several levels. You could find that
certain positions are going to be extremely scarce on Draft Day. If ten
of the 15 potential closers in your 12-team league are held by the
owners of just six teams buying a closer at the draft could get
expensive. That might make your $18 Rafael Betancourt a better keeper
than you originally supposed. The players you should target should be
the players that will help you win. Values and profits are very
important but the way they fit into your draft strategy is just as
important.
Study the Player Pool
After your league’s keepers have been calculated to the best of your
ability, it is time to study the player pool in depth. You need to know
what positions remain to be filled on every team’s roster. How many
catchers, first basemen, second basemen and so forth will be needed to
fill each open spot? In deeper leagues there could be more spots than
acceptable players. Understanding the depth available (or not available)
at each position will help you prepare a strategy that accounts for
positions that may be short on talent. In addition to finding where the
talent shortages are, you also want to find where (if anywhere) there
might be abundance.
You should be able to find some bargains within the talent abundant
positions that make nice targets for your draft plan. Bargains are
important because with a limited budget you need to acquire as much
talent as possible. The bargains also give you the extra budget to
afford expensive superstars. Where there is scarce talent, you will have
to prepare to pay a premium. Draft inflation can cause even the bottom
tier of talent at scarce positions to cost much more than the value of
their stats. Because of this, you are sometimes better off paying for
the better talents available at thin positions.
Use League History to Establish Category Goals
The typical strategy here is to plan on finishing third in each
category. That is nice. If you meet those goals you will probably field a
competitive team with a decent shot at winning. Personally, I advise a
more aggressive strategy. Plan to finish first in each category. You
probably will not, but that is not the point. The point is to force you
to draft not just solid performers, but also more players with upside.
Marco Scutaro is a fine player who will help a lot of fantasy teams this
year. However, if for the same draft day cost you could draft Jedd
Gyorko you may want to consider going with the talented rookie with
upside. It does not need to be just rookies either. Assume you have had a
fine draft and are entering the dollars days’ portion of the auction.
You could be considering names like Delmon Young and Chris Heisey, solid
players who should get some playing time. But also available is Jordany
Valdespin who is not as established but has a full-time starting
opportunity and a minor league record that indicates he has the
potential for 15 homers and 20-plus stolen bases with a decent batting
average.
The Heart of Your Plan is in the Roster Design
You should choose some player targets at their projected costs
whether in auction dollars or draft rounds. Experimenting with various
team compositions can help you shape your draft strategy. There are the
standard draft plans such as Stars and Scrubs, Spread the Risk, The LIMA
Plan, Portfolio 3 and the Mayberry Plan (a web search will provide all
the details you need on all of these ideas) and hundreds of plans
devised by experienced owners that have no names. But no matter what
plan you use to design your eventual roster, you are essentially
deciding how many of the following player types you need to roster.
- Star Players – The studs. These are the best players
available. They either contribute to five categories (in standard 5×5
leagues) or are exceptional in three or four categories. Every winning
team needs to have their fair share of star players. In a 12 team league
if there are 15 star players available you should own two of them. This
is where the bulk of a team’s value rests. Ryan Braun, Matt Kemp,
Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, Robinson Cano, Jose Reyes and Miguel
Cabrera are good examples of Star Players in standard leagues.
- Potential Breakouts – These players have a solid track record
and an established value in fantasy leagues but skills that suggest
greater upside–perhaps even the ability to become star players. Every
team should own as many of this type of player as possible. Austin
Jackson, Giancarlo Stanton, Jason Heyward, Carlos Gomez, Starlin Castro,
Stephen Strasburg and Kris Medlin are good examples of potential
breakout players.
- Category Target Players – These players are not stars and
usually only excel in one or two categories. Most closers and many
speedsters fit into this category. These players are usually used as
complements to well-rounded players to meet category goals. You do not
need to own players in this category but they are often helpful. Juan
Pierre, Everth Cabrera, Brandon League, Huston Street, Adam Dunn and Ben
Revere are good examples of category target players.
- Sleepers – These are players not highly regarded but have
skills or a new opportunity or circumstance that suggests their values
could rise sharply. Every team should have one or two sleepers as this
is the best way to build a team with a value much higher than its cost.
That sort of profit is what turns contenders into champions. Jordany
Valdespin, Cliff Pennington, Justin Ruggiano, Adam Lind and Logan
Morrison are some decent sleepers.
- Rookies – These players have very little experience in the
major leagues if any at all. Most analysts will suggest you avoid
rookies as they often underperform their skills. But rookies, like
sleepers, can be hugely valuable to a team. When they do perform, their
value often far exceeds their draft day cost. Rostering the right rookie
at a minimal cost is like purchasing a lottery pick. Mike Trout and
Bryce Harper are examples of winning lottery tickets. This season, Jedd
Gyorko, Jean Segura, Dylan Bundy and Gerrit Cole are examples of rookies
that could pay off big for fantasy owners.
It cannot be stressed enough how important it is to have a
well-thought-out plan for Draft Day. Executing that plan can be
difficult as other owners are certain to covet some of the same players
and force you to either pay more or alter your strategies. Consider
various options for every component of your plan and the odds of things
going drastically wrong shrink. Going into draft day without a plan is
planning to fail.
