The First Pick of the 2013 Fantasy Draft Is...

My friend Derek Ambrosino at the Hard Ball Times recently posted an article called "Who is 2013's Top Dog?" which debates which player should be drafted first in re-draft mixed leagues this season. To his eyes there are only three candidates - Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Braun and Mike Trout.

I agree that those three should be candidates. However, I will add three more names for consideration - Matt Kemp, Robinson Cano and Andrew McCutchen. Kemp, Cano and McCutchen are generally going with the fourth, fifth and sixth picks in one order or another but a case can be made that they are each better selections than at least two of Derek's choices.

Before jumping into each player's qualifications I think it is important to decide what is important to acquire in a first round pick, especially an early one. The first pick in the draft would ideally have a track record of success, annual statistics that typically place the player within the top 10-15 players overall, a clean bill of health, a secure position on his team and contribute to five categories. If you are lucky, that player will also be in his prime years of performance and own the potential for further upside in his statistics.

Ryan Braun is at the top of Mock Draft Central's ADP Report.  Braun won the 2011 MVP award and has been one of the top offensive players in baseball for years and contributes to all five offensive categories. He was worth $50 in 2012 according to BaseballHQ.com values. He has been worth at least $30 in each of the last six years and 50-plus the last two seasons. He has averaged over 600 at-bats the last five years. He is definitely in the prime of his career and signed to a long term contract by the Milwaukee Brewers. The only real negative is regarding the suspicion of PED use and the possibility of suspension. After beating the rap before the 2012 season, Braun was one of the names connected to the BioGenesis Clinic. If Braun missed 50 games due to suspension would he still have first round value? Probably, but I certainly would not be happy to have used the first pick of the draft on him.

Miguel Cabrera is ranked second by MDC's ADP Report. He won the 2012 MVP Award and achieved the Triple Crown last season. Cabrera has been worth at least $30 in seven of the last eight years. HQ valued him at $42 in 2012 and at no less than $36 the last three seasons. He has batted no worse than .324 with 30 homers in each of the last four seasons. He has not had fewer than 548 at-bats since 2004. He is still just 29-years old and in the prime of his career. Last season he moved back to third base so he qualifies at a premium position. Cabrera does not steal bases and that is pretty much the only flaw in his game. If you are hunting for a problem you might knock him for some occasional issues related to alcohol but he has not had an issue with that in the last few years.The lack of stolen bases is unfortunate but Cabrera is still an excellent option.

Mike Trout was the stat guy choice for the 2012 MVP. He had a Rookie-of-the-Year season better than anyone else has ever had. He hit for average, for power, scored runs, drove in runs and stole bases almost at will. BaseballHQ valued him at $49 in 2012 and $0 in his 123 at-bat audition in 2011. If Trout did everything at the same rate he did in 2012 over the entire 2013 season he would easily be the number one choice, almost without debate since he would gain more than a month of at-bats at that MVP level rate of performance. many analysts have pointed out that even with some significant regression to his 2012 statistics Trout could still be an easy first round value with an extra 100-plus at-bats added to his season totals. However, Trout, prior to the 2012 season had never displayed the 30-homer power he achieved in 2012. In fact he had never hit more than the 17 he hit at three combined levels in 2011. As Derek pointed out, it isn't unusual for a young player to show big improvement but it is not typical to make such a huge advance in a player's rookie season.Trout may be a great player in the making but one huge season does not make him an ideal first overall pick.

Matt Kemp was the 2011 MVP Runner-up to Ryan Braun. He was given an astounding value of $62 by BaseballHQ in 2011 but just $24 in his injury-plagued 2012 season. Kemp began the 2012 season with a monster month of April but an early May hamstring strain (which he tried to play through) basically put him out of action until the middle of July. Kemp has been worth at least $31 in four of the last six seasons and no less than the $21 he earned in 2010. He usually contributes in all five offensive categories and is one of the rare players capable of achieving 40-plus in both homers and steals. The Dodgers have him signed for the next several years. Kemp is considered a crucial part of the Dodger's core. A player coming off an injury-shortened season is not an ideal first overall pick but Kemp's upside potential is as high or higher than any of the players under consideration.

Andrew McCutchen is just 26-years old but already considered one of the best in the game. He has shown power gains three years running. He has fantastic speed and has spoken publicly this spring regarding his desire to improve his base-stealing techniques.The coveted 30/30 season could be in his future.He was worth $43 according to HQ in 2012 and at least $27 in each of the last three seasons. He hasn't had fewer than 570 at-bats in the last three seasons. He contributes to all of the offensive categories. McCutchen doesn't have a long track record but in his four major league seasons has shown steady improvement while providing excellent fantasy stats. Of the players under consideration, McCutchen has the highest probability of a huge breakout season. None of the MDC drafters took McCutchen before the third pick of the draft but he is capable of delivering a season with that level of value.

Robinson Cano is in the prime of his career and the best player on the New York Yankees. He is an annual MVP candidate. He has been worth at least $30 in each of the last three seasons and has done so while manning second base, a premium fantasy position. Unfortunately, he does not steal many bases. His value comes from very high batting averages and 30-homer power. Statistically he is probably a more appropriate pick for the mid to late picks of the first round but for those owners that prefer to use early picks on scarce positions Cano is a very safe option.

The choice here is for Ryan Braun but as Spring Training continues and Matt Kemp proves himself healthy the decision could change.For now I believe the MDC drafters have it nearly correct. The key difference is that I would not choose Mike Trout in a re-draft league with a top five pick over the other candidates listed here.

2013 Sleeper: Jaime Garcia

The fraying in his shoulder will keep a lot of owners away from Jaime Garcia. It will also drive his price way down, possibly into the lower single digits. That provides you with an opportunity to purchase a very talented pitcher on the cheap. Garcia has a great swinging strike rate with a solid K9 that should improve. He has good control and a nice groundball rate. He plays for a very good Cardinals team with a nice defense.  For what should be a very small investment you could win big. Garcia is already throwing and will face hitters today (Saturday, Feb. 16^th).

Jaime Garcia will face hitters for the first time today since his abortive two-inning playoff performance against the Washington Nationals last October when he throws batting practice to a group of Cardinals position players headed by David Freese.

Today is the first day that pitchers will throw batting practice. Following Garcia, who had shoulder problems much of last season, will be Shelby Miller, who will pitch to a group of hitters including Yadier Molina and Matt Carpenter.

Garcia made nine starts at the end of the 2012 season but was forced out of a playoff game after just two innings against the Washington Nationals after experiencing some shoulder stiffness. Garcia was declared fully healthy in November after several sessions with the Cardinals coaching and medical staffs. He has been throwing regularly since early January without set-backs or problems.

Said pitching coach Derek Lilliquist, "He looks incredibly strong. His arm strength is there and he's in a good frame of mind. We look for good things from Jaime."

"It was one of the toughest things I've had to experience in my career," Garcia said. "But you move forward, you learn from the bad and take the good things and move forward and that's what I did this offseason. I went home and had a good, positive mentality and I did everything asked of me to do and worked as hard as I possibly could and I've been saying this the whole time since the Winter Warm-up but I'm feeling healthy, I'm strong and I just want to take it one day at a time.

"I came into camp like any other pitcher and obviously there's things I have to take care of which are a part of my career, doing my rehab stuff (between starts), but that's just part of it. But checkups with doctors, we're all clear of that. It's been normal the whole time."

2013 Closer Update: Oakland Athletics

Oakland Athletics
Closer – Grant Balfour
Next – Sean Doolittle
Sleeper – Ryan Cook
Super-Sleeper – Pat Neshek

Grant Balfour should be considered a lower tier closer. This was made obvious by his inconsistent performance during the 2012 season and the team's willingness to change closers. Balfour gained the closer role twice during the 2012 season and also lost it. He comes into 2013 as the favorite for saves but circumstances are already working against him. The San Francisco Chronicle announced that on February 13th, 2013 Balfour underwent surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his right knee. He is expected to be out of game action for the next 4-6 weeks of Spring Training which bumps right up against Opening Day. But Balfour and his teammates and organization seem confident he will not need to miss any regular season games though that seems very optimistic.

"I'm not even worried about it, to be honest," reliever Jerry Blevins said. "He's a guy who works hard, and if he's true to form, he'll be back very quickly."

"He'll definitely be back in day one," left-hander Travis Blackley said. "The only thing he'll need is some fine-tuning, finding his release points. And he'll just lock it in, like he always does."

"I feel good about getting it done now," Balfour said. "It will allow me to get ready for Game One of the season. I knew the way I was feeling I wouldn't have been able to pitch through it all season."

Manager Bob Melvin noted that the A's planned to lighten Balfour's spring load anyway, because his workload was heavy last year; this means his arm will get some extra rest. "That's a little underlying positive," Melvin said. Should Balfour not be ready to start the season, Ryan Cook and Sean Doolittle could close games. 

Without the benefit of Spring Training, Balfour is likely to come into the season with weaker control which almost always leads to problems. We believe that Sean Doolittle will ultimately close for the Athletics but in a short term situation such as this Ryan Cook who closed at times in 2012 is probably the first option.

2013 Closer Update: New York Mets

New York Mets

Closer – Bobby Parnell

Next – Frank Francisco

Sleeper – Brandon Lyon

Super-Sleeper – Josh Edgin

 

Frank Francisco has been shut down with inflammation in his elbow. Francisco did have surgery to remove bone spurs in December. According to USAtoday.com and the New York Post, manager Terry Collins has already decided that Bobby Parnell will begin the season as the team's closer. 

“I think [Parnell] is the future,” Collins said. “We keep talking about 2014, [expletive], why not get a head start?”

Parnell could be a long term closer if he can increase his strikeout rate which could easily be better given his stuff and above average swinging strike rate. The extra strikeouts would mean less balls in play and thus fewer balls in play and less BABIP impact and hopefully more consistent results.

 

Frank Francisco may be out for quite a while longer than supposed considering he has already been replaced as the closer. The New York Post reported Francisco was to be shut down for two weeks. That would seem to leave him enough time to prepare for the regular season. This could just be the excuse that Collins was looking to use as reasoning to bump Francisco from the closer role. 

2013 Sleeper: Josh Donaldson

Donaldson’s numbers as a major leaguer look mediocre overall. It would be pretty easy for a fantasy owner to overlook a player with a .232/.280/.386 slash in 328 plate appearances. But if you look at Donaldson’s entire history he becomes a bit more interesting. Last season after his 3-for-32 start he was optioned to the minors. He was called up again in May to cover for Yoenis Cespedes’ first DL stint but was, again, rather useless at the plate. He was sent back to the minors in June and stayed there until Brandon Inge went on the disabled list in August.

This is where it gets interesting. He hit a very solid .290/.356/.489 with eight homers, 26 RBI and three steals in 47 games after returning from Triple-A.  Just 27-years old, general manager Billy Beane has declared that Donaldson will be the starter at third base in 2013. While 47 games is just a small sample of Donaldson’s season – his line at AAA Sacramento was .335/.402/.598 with 13 homers and five steals in 234 plate appearances. Donaldson has BABIP issues. Last season in the majors it was just .278 (far below average) and an indication that his poor start to the season was at least to some degree bad luck.

UPSIDE: .280/.350/.450 with 15-20 homers and 5-10 stolen bases.

2013 Pre-Season Closer Report - National League

National League East

Atlanta Braves

Closer – Craig Kimbrel

Next – Johnny Venters

Sleeper – Jordan Walden

Super-Sleeper – Eric O’Flaherty

The Braves are holding the best closer in the league and one of the best bullpen staffs. Craig Kimbrel is as dominating as they come with a 16.66 K9 in 2012. His continually improving control just makes him look better and better, his BB9 has improved every season to 2.01 in 2012. Johnny Venters was hit a little harder than usual in 2012 but on the surface his indicating stats are mostly unchanged. Although Venters continued to throw in the mid-90s he did see his velocity reduced by around 1MPH. Walden was the closer for the Los Angeles Angels in 2011 and with a solid performance this spring could move ahead of Venters in the closer rankings. Walden throws in the high 90s (though he too saw his velocity reduced a bit in 2012) and strikes out more than a btter per inning but has the type of control that can make managers nervous in the ninth.

Miami Marlins

Closer – Steve Cishek

Next – A.J. Ramos

Sleeper – Ryan Webb

Super-Sleeper – Jose Ceda

Steve Cishek is a favorite to be replaced as closer during the season. He lacks truly dominating stuff and lacks the control to be consistently effective. Ramos has slightly better stuff and slightly better control with less experience in the Major Leagues. However, Ramos has been an effective closer in the minors and should get goods odds as the near-future closer for the Marlins. Ryan Webb is a solid relief pitcher but does not accumulate the strikeouts associated with the closer role.

New York Mets

Closer – Frank Francisco

Next – Bobby Parnell

Sleeper – Jenrry Mejia

Super-Sleeper – Josh Edgin

For now Frank Francisco remains in place as the closer. He is likely much better than his 2012 performance but understandably most owners will be reluctant to put their faith in him. The Mets have reached out to several potential replacements including Roy Oswalt (yes, as a closer), Jose Valverde and Francisco Rodriguez without any success so far. Francisco is likely to begin the season closing for the Mets and will hold the role until the Mets just can not take it any longer. Bobby Parnell is a hot prospect to take over the closer role at some point. Parnell should get more strikeouts than he does with his high 90s stuff and above average swinging strike rate. Without the higher K9 associated with the position he would probably be a mid-tier closer at best.

Philadelphia Phillies

Closer – Jonathan Papelbon

Next – Mike Adams

Sleeper - Phillippe Aumont

Super-Sleeper – Antonio Bastardo

Jonathan Papelbon had another great fantasy season in 2012. There are some warning signs for 2013 that should not eliminate him from your consideration but may convince you not to throw in that extra dollar in your auction or to grab Jason Motte instead. He pitched a career high 70 innings this season, at age 32 this is not as bad as it would be for a younger player but he did see a velocity drop as a result. He also had a career high HR/FB that was largely hidden by a fairly high LOB percentage. The home runs could be a fluke but it could also be a result of the move from Fenway Park To Citizens Bank Park. Papelbon is unlikely to lose his job thanks to his huge contract but his results could start to decline this season.

Washington Nationals

Closer – Rafael Soriano

Next – Drew Storen

Sleeper – Tyler Clippard

Super-Sleeper – Christian Garcia

Some analysts claim that fantasy owners should avoid the Washington Bullpen because of the three potential closers. That seems like bad advice to me. Rafael Soriano is the closer to start the season until he does something to cost him the job. Given his track record no one should be counting on Soriano to fail. Soriano should be one of the better closers in baseball in 2013. Drew Storen certainly has the stuff and I expect him to take a big step up in results this season as far as K9 is concerned. The previous low K9s are likely part of the problem Davey Johnson (an old school manager is there ever was one) had with Storen in the closer role (that and being so inexperienced). Storen's swinging strike rate took a huge step up to 13.3 in 2012 which if it holds up would indicate elite K9 results in his future. Those in long term keeper leagues should pay attention to Christian Garcia. Garcia was a former top prospect of the New York Yankees whose career was nearly ended by a series of Tommy John Surgeries. The Nationals gave him a chance to return as a reliever and he rampaged through their system. His high 90s stuff returned with his hammer curve and solid change. He should be a bullpen factor at some point in 2013.

National League Central

Chicago Cubs

Closer – Carlos Marmol

Next - Kyuji Fujikawa

Sleeper – Alberto Cabrera

Super-Sleeper – Hector Rondon

The Chicago Cubs tried to dump Marmol off on the Los Angeles Angels early in the offseason but it did not work out. They have since declared their support for Marmol as their closer even as they signed his replacement in Kyuji Fujikawa. Fujikawa is not as flashly as Dice-K or Yu Darvish but has been a very effective pitcher in Japan. His name means "Baseball Kid" He was given the name because he was born the day after his father threw a No-Hitter. He has a career 1.77 ERA and 11.8 K9 in 12 seasons. He was once considered to have the most explosive fastball in Japan but his velocity has decreased in his later years. He still throws in the low to mid 90s with good movement on multiple fastballs including an effective splitter and outstanding control. Judging by Patrick Newman's scouting reports he has fallen from Craig Kimbell levels to J.J. Putz levels and that is not so bad.

Cincinnati Reds

Closer – Jonathan Broxton

Next – Sean Marshall

Sleeper – Aroldis Chapman

Super-Sleeper – Jose Arredondo

It would appear that Jonathan Broxton has recovered from years of abuse at the hands of Joe Torre. His strikeout rate and fastball velocity will probably never be what they were again but Broxton has learned to be effective with what he has which is a still a nice low to mid 90s fastball. As long as his control is there he should be an effective mid-tier closer. Only the return of Aroldis Chapman to the bullpen would force an effective Broxton from the closer role.

Milwaukee Brewers

Closer – John Axford

Next – Jim Henderson

Sleeper – Burke Badenhop

Super-Sleeper – Mike Gonzalez

Throwing in the mid to high 90s will earn you a lot of forgiveness from crotchety baseball managers. However, Axford needs to get his stuff under control or he will become a highly paid middle reliever. The good news is that his absurd 19.2 percent HR/FB rate is extremely unlikely to be repeated. Jim Henderson is old for a rookie but his minor league experience is not so different from Axford's. Henderson throws in the mid-90s and has inconsistent control. Burke Badenhop doesn't have typical closer stuff. He throws in the high 80s usually but with excellent control. He is probably the best pitcher in the bullpen but finesse types tend to have a tough time convincing managers they can do the job and fantasy managers prefer strikeouts.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Closer – Jason Grilli

Next – Mark Melancon

Sleeper – Jared Hughes

Super-Sleeper – Tony Watson

Jason Grilli is not very different from the departed Joel Hanrahan but he comes a tiny bit cheaper. Grilli has low to mid 90s strikeout stuff with mediocre control. He has improved considerably the last couple of seasons mostly by improving from weak control of his fastball to the mediocre or decent control he has now. Marc Melancon can also close in a pinch but Grilli should get an extended opportunity and as long as his control holds he should be secure in the role. Melancon has similar stuff with fewer strikeouts but more consistent control. Melancon probably won't take the role in anything less than a full blown collapse by Grilli but he should receive the occasional save chance.

St. Louis Cardinals

Closer – Jason Motte

Next – Edward Mujica

Sleeper – Mitchell Boggs

Super-Sleeper – Fernando Salas

Jason Motte has been drafted as a top 4-5 closer in many early leagues. He gives his owners more innings than the typical closer thanks to his frequent use in the eighth inning. He throws in the high 90s with excellent control and an improving swinging strike rate and K9 rate. He is as locked into the role as any closer can be these days. His manager seems to have a great deal of faith in him and he has delivered nearly every time.

National League West

Arizona Diamondbacks

Closer – J.J. Putz

Next – David Hernandez

Sleeper – Heath Bell

Super-Sleeper – Brad Ziegler

To some J.J. Putz still has a reputation as injury prone but that really should be considered a thing of the past if at all. Put has good stuff and has a nice strikeout rate and very good control. Putz should be as solid a pick as they come but former closer Heath Bell is certainly a huge presence in the Diamondbacks bullpen despite the announcement that he would typically be pitching in the seventh inning. There is also David Hernandez. Hernandez has improved quite a bit since joining the Diamondbacks (from the Orioles). He has gained nice control over his mid-90s stuff and has a rising swinging strike rate that lends hope that his gains in K9 in 2012 could stick around.

Colorado Rockies

Closer – Rafael Betancourt

Next – Rex Brothers

Sleeper – Wilton Lopez

Super-Sleeper – Matt Belisle

Rafael Betancourt should have been a closer years ago but bad results in very small samples always ruined his chances. In 2012 Betancourt finally finished a season as a team's closer and is a lock to start the 2013 season as the closer as well. Betancourt has an excellent low-90s fastball with an excellent change-up and outstanding control. Rex Brothers is the closer of the future but he'll need some time to get his mid-90s fastball under better control. Brothers also has an excellent slider and a solid change-up. Wilton Lopez is in the Rockies bullpen now thanks to an Astros/Phillies trade un-done thanks to a problem with an examination of Lopez's elbow. Lopez is an extreme groundball pitcher with excellent control and a decent (but not ideal for fantasy) strikeout rate. If Lopez is healthy he should be an excellent contributor to the Rockies pen and a potential closer in a pinch.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Closer – Brandon League

Next – Kenley Jansen

Sleeper – Javy Guerra

Super-Sleeper – Ronald Belisario

The Dodgers seem to start every season with a new closer. Brandon League has pretty good stuff but has been plagued with inconsistent control his entire career. The Dodgers acquired him from the Seattle Mariners where he was having a tough season. The Dodgers helped him make an adjustment to his mechanics and League finished the season well and the Dodgers rewarded him with a three-year contract. His control is unlikely to ever be great but when he is going well he induces a ton of ground balls and is a solid relief pitcher but not many fantasy owners idea of a closer. The Dodgers have declared that League will be their closer to open the season. Kenley Jansen who was considered the Dodgers future closer last year has been reduced to next-in-line again thanks to an unfortunate problem with his heart that required surgery. Jansen is expected to be completely prepared to pitch in 2013 but the Dodgers seem understandably shy about putting too much pressure on him.

San Diego Padres

Closer – Huston Street

Next – Brad Brach

Sleeper – Luke Gregerson

Super-Sleeper – Dale Thayer

The Padres have a loaded bullpen led by closer Huston Street. Street gets the strikeouts and has excellent control. Petco Park tends to contain the long fly balls. Street is not the most durable pitcher in the league but he is very effective when healthy. Street owners should consider investing in the key members of the Padres bullpen as insurance. Luke Gregerson is probably the short term replacement when Street is unavailable but I like Brad Brach as the longer term closer. Gregerson's pitches in the high 80s and though he has a nicely above average swinging strike rate he does not put up the strikeout totals that would indicate. Brach pitches in the low 90's with his fastball and should have very nice strikeout totals for a middle reliever. His control needs work but was excellent coming through the minors.

San Francisco Giants

Closer – Sergio Romo

Next – Javier Lopez

Sleeper – Heath Hembree

Super-Sleeper – Jeremy Affeldt

Sergio Romo lives by his slider. He has a high 80s fastball with nice movement but does not use it much. He gets the strikeouts that owners expect from their closers and he complements them with excellent control. The Giants are calling their closer a collective effort of the entire pen but Romo should get the bulk of saves. Heath Hembree has yet to make his Major League debut but has owned the closer of the future label.Hembree did not have a great 2012 season but is essentially ready to be tested by the big leagues.

2013 Pre-Season Closer Report - American League

American League East

Baltimore Orioles

Closer – Jim Johnson

Next – Pedro Strop

Sleeper – Darren O’Day

Super-Sleeper – Luis Alaya

The Orioles do not have a fantasy superstar stud closer but their closer situation is more stable than a lot of teams. Jim Johnson has been a consistent performer but does not get the strikeouts that owners and lets face it - most Major League Managers - want to see in their bullpen ace. Johnson would be a great closer to pair with a high strikeout non-saves reliever such as Jacob McGee. But until Johnson starts to falter there is little reason to worry about the rest of the Orioles bullpen. The Orioles have quite a few young pitchers that could work their way into the majors (or back there) through the bullpen but none of them are likely to compete for saves in 2013.

Boston Red Sox

Closer – Joel Hanrahan

Next – Andrew Bailey

Sleeper – Junichi Tazawa

Super-Sleeper – Koji Uehara

The Red Sox are one of the teams that have shown interest in Brian Wilson. A Wilson signing would create even more chaos in a bullpen that has shown little stability over the past few seasons. Hanrahan had control problems in 2013 and has had them in the past. Frankly with the exception of the 2010 and 2011 season he has always had shaky control. It was that lack of control that led to him becoming a Pirate in the first place.It would be a poor idea to bet on Hanrahan regaining his 2011 BB9. However the Red Sox bullpen is loaded with intriguing candidates for saves. Bailey has also had inconsistent control numbers but not quite as bad as Hanrahan. Bailey has had more problems staying healthy and available. Tazawa was excellent in 2012 and is probably the most likely to become a stud closer of this group. Unfortunately, Tazawa will probably have to wait for both Hanrahan and Bailey to fail first.

New York Yankees

Closer – Mariano Rivera

Next – David Robertson

Sleeper – Joba Chamberlain

Super-Sleeper – David Phelps

Until 2012 Mariano Rivera was easily the most consistently great closer in the game. He is almost certainly a Hall-of-Famer and one of the greatest closers of all time. This is the first season in over a decade that Rivera enters with anything less than great expectations. At this point Robertson is clearly Rivera's successor but Joba Chamberlain (if he proves healthy) will attempt to make a case for himself this season. He has the stuff he just needs to go do it. Chamberlain is a nice sleeper for saves in 2014 as he should come very cheap and provide value in any case. Phelps is likely to be a Jack-Of-All-Trades for the Yankees pitching as the long reliever, spot starter and Joba insurance. The role could hurt Phelps stats but he has nice skills. He is better drafted in leagues where he can be stashed.

Tampa Bay Rays

Closer – Fernando Rodney

Next – Kyle Farnsworth

Sleeper – Jake McGee

Super-Sleeper – Joel Peralta

Fernando Rodney should be as close to a lock to regress to his career numbers as any pitcher listed in this article. He had an amazing, once in a lifetime season that is miles from his career levels. The Rays may be great pitching instructors and they have put together a great bullpen but they are not miracle workers. Rodney is much closer to a middle tier closer than the best closer in all the lands. The pitcher to own in this bullpen is McGee who has great numbers and will eventually have to be considered for the more prestigious bullpen roles.

Toronto Blue Jays

Closer – Casey Janssen

Next – Sergio Santos

Sleeper – Esmil Rogers

Super-Sleeper – Steve Delabar

Casey Janssen has been very good the last two seasons and has proven more than worthy of holding the closer role indefinitely. Janssen did undergo successful surgery on his right shoulder to repair lingering AC joint soreness. While this is not expected to delay his start to Spring Training or the season it does create enough of a question to provide Santos owners a glimmer of hope. But Santos is himself coming back from much more serious shoulder surgery and until we actually see that his stuff has not changed he is a tough investment. Esmil Rogers was quite good once he escaped from Colorado. He has the stuff, strikeout rate and Ground Ball rate to be a very successful pitcher. With the two favorites adding recent shoulder surgery to their resumes, Rogers could be a nice low-risk investment.

American League Central

Chicago White Sox

Closer – Addison Reed

Next – Matt Thornton

Sleeper – Jesse Crain

Super-Sleeper – Matt Lindstrom

Addison Reed had to fight through the crowds of contenders to earn the closer role. He has the stuff as shown by his stellar minor league statistics but has not quite reached his major league potential to this point. Reed has the potential for a much higher k-rate which would shoot him up the closer ranks. For now he should be the stable holder of the closer role for a team in the midst of restructuring. When a team attempts to rebuild on the fly it can be very difficult to judge what they will do in certain situations. So while there should be optimism regarding Reeds ability to improve, there should also be caution in investing in the bullpen of an unpredictable team.

Cleveland Indians

Closer – Chris Perez

Next – Vinnie Pestano

Sleeper – Brett Myers

Super-Sleeper – Matt Albers

Lots of analysts suggested it was time for Perez to give way to Pestano in the 2012 fantasy guides. At Advanced Fantasy Baseball we experimented with a different idea. With the closer position in constant flux we suggested that owners consider low investments in the closers that no one wanted or that were being projected to lose their jobs. Perez was the successful side of this idea, Frank Francisco was at the less successful end. Still, Perez had a nice season. It could be that Perez improved as a pitcher and the control gains are for real. More likely, it was a one year anomaly. For now Perez holds the job and should be considered fairly stable in the position.

Detroit Tigers

Closer – Bruce Rondon

Next – Joaquin Benoit

Sleeper – Al Alburquerque

Super-Sleeper – Octavio Dotel

The Tigers are insisting they have no interest in adding a veteran closer. They further insist that they would like rookie Bruce Rondon to take the closer role. He has the the strikeout stuff though his control is not great. He could thrive in the role but rookies with less than 150 innings in the minors rarely come up to dominate in the majors. The Tigers have had some success with moving prospects quickly through their minor league system. They have also had some spectacular failures in this department. The bet here is on Benoit who is probably the best pitcher in their bullpen.

Kansas City Royals

Closer – Greg Holland

Next – Kelvin Herrera

Sleeper – Aaron Crow

Super-Sleeper – Tim Collins

Greg Holland stepped up and eventually filled the closer role for the injured Joakim Soria and the traded Jonathan Broxton. Holland's strikeout rate almost makes up for his lousy control but fantasy owners will not enjoy his high WHIP. Kelvin Herrera could be a much better option. Herrera has it all. He has the strikeout rate, excellent control and a great ground ball rate.Herrera is good enough to be worth drafting in deeper leagues even without the possibility of saves.If the Royals regain faith in Herrera's health they could potentially place him back in a starting role where he would have frontline pitcher stuff.

Minnesota Twins

Closer – Glen Perkins

Next – Jared Burton

Sleeper – Alex Burnett

Super-Sleeper – Casey Fien

The Twins are in re-building mode so anything can happen. Glen Perkins is solid in all areas and should be a competent closer for the Twins and would retain some value even without the job in deeper leagues. Burton would probably be as good as Perkins at closing but his chance depends on Perkins failing since he isn't likely to be drastically better. The Twins have acquired two power arms this winter that could be future power closers - Trevor May and Alex Meyer. Both are still being developed as starters but the Twins have often broken in starters as relievers.

American League West

Houston Astros

Closer – Jose Veras

Next – Josh Fields

Sleeper – Jarred Cosart

Super-Sleeper – Phil Humber

At this point no one outside of the Astros front office has any real idea who the 2013 closer will be. Veras is probably the favorite as the most experienced pitcher and a veteran minor league closer. He is in the high strikeouts/high walks mode, his WHIP will be on the high side.

 "If you're going to take a chance on someone to be a first-time closer, that's the type of guy you want," Porter said. "We do have other pitchers that will get an opportunity to pitch late in the game, whether it's [Rhiner] Cruz, who had a really good winter league, or [Hector] Ambriz. There are others who will get a look, but Veras has the experience right now and is the front-runner."

Josh Fields is another power option.He is a Rule V pick from the Boston Red Sox. His control has improved the last two seasons in the minors and he could be a nice closer. Cosart is still on the starter path but has been mentioned by the Houston front office as a potential closer. At this point he looks like a mediocre starter so the bullpen may be his opportunity to shine.

Los Angeles Angels

Closer – Ryan Madson

Next – Ernesto Frieri

Sleeper – Scott Downs

Super-Sleeper – David Carpenter

Madson is coming off Tommy John Surgery and could potentially miss the first two weeks or so of the season. When healthy Madson has great stuff with excellent command. The fact that Madson may miss a few weeks gives Ernesto Frieri a boost in value. Frieri owners should hold him if they have him at a low keeper cost. Frieri does not have great control but his real problem in 2012 was an elevated HR/FB. If his HR/FB regresses back towards his career rates he should be an excellent option in 2013. Scott Downs as ever is the Angels insurance policy in the bullpen. The Angels seem reluctant to ever actually give him the closer role but he is usually the guy they turn to when they need to lock things down.

Oakland Athletics

Closer – Grant Balfour

Next – Sean Doolittle

Sleeper – Ryan Cook

Super-Sleeper – Pat Neshek

There is really just one pitcher that you should be looking for in the Athletics bullpen and that is Sean Doolittle. He was drafted with the 41st overall pick as a first baseman but knee injuries almost ended his career. The A’s converted him to pitching and rushed him through the system in 2012. From Class A to the Major Leagues - 17 games, 26 innings, 1.04 earned run average, 50 strikeouts, 8 walks. He has a very deceptive delivery and a blazing mid-90s fastball. He could stabilize the A’s closer position for several years.

Seattle Mariners

Closer – Tom Wilhelmsen

Next – Carter Capps

 Sleeper – Stephen Pryor

Super-Sleeper –Oliver Perez

Wilhelmsen has a great story and was a huge success for the Mariners this season. He gets a decent number of strikeouts and has decent control as well. He induces a bunch of groundballs and his 2.89 FIP says he earned his 2.50 ERA. You might wish Wilhelmsen had a higher strikeout rate but other than that this seems like a pretty stable closer situation. Carter Capps rampaged through the Mariner system using his moving upper-90s fastball and slider. He performed well in his first stint in the majors and should only improve with experience. Capps seems to be the clear closer of the future. Stephen Pryor does not have the same sort of stuff as Capps but he too marched from High-A to the Major Leagues in 2012. He gets nice strikeout numbers but his control is pretty shaky. The Mariners have a ton of young arms that could contribute to the bullpen this season as the Mariners advance talent through their system.

Texas Rangers

Closer – Joe Nathan

Next – Tanner Scheppers

Sleeper – Robbie Ross

Super-Sleeper – Joakim Soria

Joe Nathan completed his return from TJS with the Texas Rangers in 2012 and looked almost as good as ever. The strikeouts were there. The command was there. He did not seem to suffer much in the more hitting oriented environment. As he nears 40-years old, Nathan can be expected to fade a bit but there are not many signs of that in his 2012 statistics. Scheppers allowed a few too many homers in his first Major Leagues stint but he has the stuff to be the Rangers closer of the future. Joakim Soria was signed this offseason after the Royals declined to re-sign him as he rehabbed from TJS. Soria is expected to be ready by the All-Star Break and while he contribute in the second half, he is more likely to be of value in 2014.