WORTH A BID?

I heartily concur with Pauly's Picks this week, but there are a few other players I'm looking at as potential free agent pickups, so in the spirit of sharing, here they are:

Jamey Wright - Depending upon the structure of your league and how liberal the free agent policy is, Wright may be worth a bid. In my 15-team mixed, we have a $100 FAAB, and we use the Vickrey auction format, which makes a modest bid a decent play. As of this writing, Eric Wedge says he is sticking with League, but that could easily change. There looks to be a decent chance that Aardsma will not be back at all, which makes Wright even more attractive.

Marc Rzepczynski - I think this guy is a good play in deep "only" leagues, regardless of whether they are keeper leagues or redraft leagues. He has been pitching very well in relief, and I suspect he will wind up in the rotation by the end of the year. I even like him in mixed keeper leagues, where he can probably be picked up for a couple of bucks and could be a potential freeze for 2012.

Laynce Nix, Endy Chavez - These guys have been sitting on waiver wires and free agency lists in many leagues, and there is a chance they can provide you some short term help. Nix should get plenty of at bats for the Nats, at least for a while, and he has been displaying good power and hitting for a good average so far. As for Chavez, many have forgotten he's still in baseball. He's a little long in the tooth, but still has some wheels. The Rangers look like a MASH unit, so Endy should get a good bit of PT and may swipe a few bags for you. Just don't break the piggy bank to grab him.

Louis Coleman - I know that Soria has been one of the safest bets around for the last few seasons, but I like this guy and would not be surprised to see him get a few more save opportunities, despite what management is saying.

Will Rhymes - A terrible start got him sent down, but if your league lets you FAAB guys in the minors, he's not a bad gamble in an "only" league if you have a place to stash him. The guy has absolutely no pop, but he has a good eye and some speed. He could be back up with the big club before long.

So, just a few nuggets. I'll probably be throwing a few ducats at some of these guys myself before the weekend is over.

Good luck and have fun!

Some Trade Advice...

Hey I was searching google for fantasy baseball trade analyzers and ran across your article: http://www.advancedfantasybaseball.com/2009/05/ten-fantasy-baseball-trade-secrets.html. It said email you, so whether you still are around to help, we will see.

I give: kershaw and ellsbury

I get: hanson and J.Upton

My team is: My team looks like: Avila, Youkilis, Philips, Mcgehee, Tulo, Mccutch, Ellsbury, Stanton, Davis(rajai), Lomo... Would this trade be sideways?

I lead in Hrs, rbis and am in sixth for SB. Would Justin Upton power/speed combo be much better than Ellsbury superspeed?

It seems like you have a bunch of stolen base guys already - McCutch, Ellsbury, and Rajai Davis, so I'm actually a little surprised you are leading in homers and just sixth is sbs. If we ignore the stats, it seems like Upton's power is something your squad could use. On the other hand I believe Kershaw and Ellsbury to be a superior pair to Hanson and Upton.

Hanson's roto stats look slightly better than Kerhsaw's at the moment but not by much and I am still confident that Kerhsaw is the slightly better pitcher. Ellsbury is the better hitter for average and steals more bases and is also developing some power. Upton has far superior potential but has underachieved much like his brother. I love Upton and keep hoping for a breakout, but I don't think I'd deal Ellsbury for Upton.

I would suggest you find a better, more typical, speed for power deal. Something along the lines of Rajai Davis for Adam Dunn (who is hitting well of late).

Pauly's Pickups of the Week: Ty Wigginton & Vicente Padilla

This just in fantasy baseball managers: Ian Stewart SUCKS!! And so does Jose Lopez!!

And that's why Ty Wigginton is a great pickup right now. Unless you are playing in a 20-man league, or your league has unlimited DL spots, or you are in a deep NL league, odds are that Mr. Wigginton is available.

He is finishing up a rehab assignment right now and will likely rejoin the Rockies this weekend. And manager Jim Tracy -- much like the rest of the fantasy baseball community -- has had it up to HERE with the joke that Stewart has become...and the never-was that Lopez really is. Wigginton is the only guy on the team with enough talent to make an impact at third base - especially with the speculation that Stewart is heading back to AAA with Ty's promotion.

If you own Ian Stewart (like me), your only prayer is for a change of scenery (a trade, not AAA), because it looks like he has truly worn out his welcome in Colorado. What a shame, the kid has some talent -- but that's what an .067 batting average will get you.

Wigginton has 20 HR potential from here on out -- and as I said, very little competition for playing time. He will be picked off most wires before the end of next week, so grab him now.

As for Padilla, just look up recent news on Jonathan Broxton or Hong-Chih Kuo and you will realize that there is nobody but old (and I do mean old) Vicente closing games in Los Angeles these days. It probably won't last, but much like the last few weeks' recommended pitchers, cheap saves are a valuable commodity.

And just as a side note, if you are struggling to find saves, have you noticed that every week a new guy emerges with save potential? Truth is, closer is the most volatile position in baseball (well, maybe outside of manager lol) -- and just about every week will produce a new player earning saves. The morals: dont pay too much for saves on draft day; and stay on top of the closing situations league-wide. This is the easiest position for you to go out and "right the ship."

Good luck!

The Best Pitchers of 2011 so far...

There are a lot of names we've come to expect at the topof this list- Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Tim Linececum. Some we hoped would finally get here like Jered Weaver,Dan Haren and Josh Johnson. However there are a handfulof names that may surprise you (and maybe even their fantasy owners),I won't ruin the surprise, look at it below.

Name	Team	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	WHIP	BABIP	ERA	xFIP	tERA
Roy Halladay	Phillies	9.62	1.18	0.17	0.98	0.308	2.19	2.14	1.72
Matt Garza	Cubs	11.69	2.62	0.20	1.37	0.388	4.43	2.04	2.61
Cliff Lee	Phillies	11.65	1.36	0.78	1.17	0.355	3.69	2.11	2.72
Dan Haren	Angels	8.74	1.25	0.47	0.85	0.244	1.87	2.8	1.88
Jered Weaver	Angels	8.58	2.03	0.31	0.90	0.243	1.87	3.12	2.48
Tim Lincecum	Giants	10.84	3.04	0.38	1.08	0.289	2.47	2.39	2.44
Josh Johnson	Marlins	8.57	2.79	0.19	0.85	0.212	1.68	2.95	2.21
Jaime Garcia	Cardinals	8.74	2.18	0.40	0.97	0.263	1.99	2.59	2.58
Brandon McCarthy	Athletics	5.44	1.45	0.18	1.25	0.321	3.26	3.38	2.91
Tim Stauffer	Padres	6.75	1.96	0.22	1.16	0.299	2.61	2.99	2.99
Michael Pineda	Mariners	9.16	2.82	0.47	1.07	0.270	2.58	3.33	2.48
Daniel Hudson	Diamondbacks	8.73	2.64	0.41	1.26	0.331	4.47	3.32	2.99
Felix Hernandez	Mariners	8.10	2.38	0.48	1.11	0.283	3.02	2.89	3.09
Derek Lowe	Braves	8.26	2.82	0.40	1.25	0.313	3.22	2.98	2.81
Jair Jurrjens	Braves	5.00	1.50	0.25	1.08	0.278	1.5	3.37	3.3
Cole Hamels	Phillies	9.25	2.08	0.76	0.99	0.267	2.83	2.57	3.14
Jordan Zimmermann	Nationals	5.18	1.94	0.22	1.25	0.298	4.1	4.07	2.64
Tim Hudson	Braves	4.65	1.43	0.18	0.95	0.244	2.86	3.47	2.34
Tommy Hanson	Braves	9.00	2.41	0.66	1.02	0.262	2.63	2.94	3.08
CC Sabathia	Yankees	7.47	3.06	0.34	1.34	0.311	2.89	3.42	3.71
Justin Masterson	Indians	6.51	2.49	0.19	1.17	0.295	2.11	3.44	2.59
Trevor Cahill	Athletics	7.74	2.75	0.52	1.09	0.257	1.72	2.91	3.36
Jason Marquis	Nationals	5.95	1.60	0.46	1.32	0.326	3.66	3.21	3.17
Josh Beckett	Red Sox	7.94	2.58	0.60	0.88	0.211	1.99	3.25	3.15
Travis Wood	Reds	8.12	2.84	0.61	1.47	0.356	5.28	3.49	4.32
Brandon Beachy	Braves	9.57	2.34	0.85	0.97	0.245	2.98	3.13	3.23
Brett Anderson	Athletics	6.47	1.48	0.55	1.13	0.297	2.77	2.85	2.88
C.J. Wilson	Rangers	7.67	2.88	0.48	1.26	0.299	3.36	3.43	3.83
Bud Norris	Astros	10.97	2.95	1.05	1.27	0.321	3.16	2.66	3.02
Shaun Marcum	Brewers	8.66	2.47	0.82	1.03	0.248	2.06	3.27	3.07
Chris Narveson	Brewers	8.54	3.00	0.69	1.36	0.325	4.38	3.03	3.89
James Shields	Rays	7.38	2.01	0.67	0.93	0.234	2.01	3.2	3.14
Ian Kennedy	Diamondbacks	7.40	2.40	0.60	1.11	0.265	3.8	3.46	3.92
Doug Fister	Mariners	5.74	2.55	0.21	1.46	0.348	3.4	4.17	3.44
Jorge de la Rosa	Rockies	8.79	3.56	0.63	1.12	0.246	3.14	3.4	3.55

Pauly's Pickups of the Week: Mike Fontenot & Mark Melancon

I know, not the sexiest pickups of the week...but wait, look at these numbers:

Since taking over as the starting third baseman for the not-as-fat Panda in San Francisco on April 30, Mike Fontenot is hitting .350 with hits in 5 of 6 games. He has a steal, a homer and 4 RBI. Back in the pre-season, I highlighted Fontenot as a guy who could put up decent numbers if given a chance at an everyday role, and he hasn't disappointed yet.

I'm not saying everyone should stampede each other trying to sign Fontenot, but he definitely should not be available in NL-Only leagues. He will put up a decent cheap mix of steals, and possibly some more power -- he has batted third in the SF lineup since Tuesday and has all 4 RBI in that span.

Another player who will benefit from a recent injury is Mark Melancon, who is taking over at closer in Houston for the injured Brandon Lyon. Once again, here is a guy who I have not really seen pitch, but he is someone who will be scooped up in just about every competitive league by this weekend.

Unlike the ridiculous situation in St. Louis where Tony LaRussa is once again effing with the greater fantasy baseball community, the situation is much more clear-cut in Houston. Melancon is a Tommy John survivor (missed all of 2007 as a Yankees farmhand), and came over to the Astros in the Lance Berkman deal last year. He has already been officially "named" the closer, and he has proven he can handle somewhat-pressurized situations - 3 holds with a sub-2.00 ERA.

Sure, he might not be getting a ton of chances, but when you need saves, you'll take em from anywhere....won't you? And since he hasn't posted a save yet, he may be flying under the radar in your league right now. This is where you take advantage of the people who don't constantly read player/team updates -- and believe me, odds are there are quite a few in your league.

MAY IS HERE...WHERE IS YOUR TEAM?

The drafts and auctions are over. Other than checking boxscores every hour or two, what should we do now?

A lot of owners say just let them play awhile. But that’s second division thinking. There are a couple of ways you can help your squad improve right now. Both take a considerable amount of effort, but can yield substantial results.


Step 1: Many leagues provide the opportunity for owners to add new players to their rosters, either by free agent purchases or waiver claims. Some leagues allow you to pick up anyone from your fantasy league web site, while others require that a player be active before you can bid on him or claim him. Either way, it's a good idea to study the free agent list very thoroughly.

The time to get a player at a good price is before he pops up on everyone's radar. There are usually signs that an excellent opportunity is about to take place. If it looks like a player is scuffling so badly that the club may send him down, someone stands to pick up that playing time. It might be a fourth outfielder moved into a full-time job, or it might be the guy tearing up AAA who almost made the team out of Spring Training.

Take Casper Wells as an example. It may be that the only thing keeping him from playing every day is Austin Jackson, who has been terrible so far. If Wells hasn't already been taken in your league, he might be a good speculative play, given his combination of power and speed.

On the pitching side, anticipating a change in the way a reliever is used can bring rewards. For those of you in keeper leagues, an investment of a buck or two could have netted you a great freeze in Joel Hanrahan.

Another example is Fernando Salas. The owners who grabbed last week (or who might grab him this week) are optimistic, as he has now picked up two saves for the Cardinals.


Step 2: If you haven't already done so, it can be a good idea to analyze the rosters of every other owner. Doing so will show you where the other owners have weak areas which need to be improved, as well as areas of surplus from which they might deal. I make notes of my impressions of each of the other teams, and pull out those notes when a trade opportunity comes along.

Many owners just aren't very proactive when it comes to trading. The odds of making a deal with one of these passive owners can be increased significantly if you can demonstrate how your trade proposal can help his team. "You have plenty of pop on your roster, probably the most in the league. It looks like you could use a little speed, though. How about I give you X for Y. X might be good for three or four points in the standings, since stolen base totals are so closely grouped". It never fails to amaze me how many trade offers I receive that would do absolutely nothing to make my squad better. My usual response is "How would this help my team?"


Step 3: Even though every owner knows that it is still April, there's still a psychological tendency for some owners to hit the panic button when three or four of their players are hitting .160, or their team ERA is over 6.00 and rising. This can create some excellent opportunities to help your squad. I realize that everyone says "buy low" and "sell high", but doing so successfully requires finding the player who is badly under-performing now, but who should get it rolling any time.

Buying low also requires finesse. If your approach makes it obvious you are looking for a motivated seller, you may frighten away your prey. Similarly, if you are trying to trade away your $5 outfielder who is playing like an MVP, but is bound to come down to earth soon, be careful how you approach. Everyone has a different approach to trading, and sometimes the approach which is best depends upon owner across the trading table.


In summary, a vigilant owner can help his team this time of year. Lineups and pitching staffs are still shaking out. A free agent you buy now can help you for five more months, as opposed to a player purchased in August. Stay calm, but if others around you are growing impatient with their players, be ready to step in with a trade offer.

Well, that's it for this week's article. I hope your teams have gotten off to a good start, but if they have stumbled out of the gate, there are ways to get them back on track.

Good luck, and have fun!

Pauly's Pickups of the Week: Ryan Roberts & Sergio Santos

I am drinking the Kool Aid. I am a believer. This is a storybook kind of player. His name is Ryan Roberts. While the Diamondbacks were desperately looking for a third baseman in the offseason, and settled with an aging (to put it kindly) Melvin Mora...little did they know that there was a home-grown guy ready to step it up.

So is this guy ready for the big time? Will there be a typical baseball movie deal in his future? Let's see:
"In 2003, Baseball America analyst John Manuel described Roberts as the best player on the University of Texas at Arlington's squad which also included Hunter Pence."
"On August 3, 2006, Roberts connected on a solo home run in Yankee Stadium for his first major league hit in his second ever major league game."
"hit .290 in 2009 in his first true major league regular job at the age of 28, taking over the everyday second baseman's job around midseason....and tore up August with a .352 average and 4 HR."
"Stunk it up in 2010 and spent most of his time in Reno."

Sounds like a decent script to me. In any case, this guy has shown in the past that he can hit in the majors. He is extremely versatile (he is eligible at nearly every position in one of my leagues), has decent power and decent speed. I'm calling 2010 Roberts' wake-up call, and now he is taking advantage of his chance. And finally, there is no way Melvin Mora is going to stand in his way any longer this season.

Now it is true, I should have posted this last week....but family obligations, etc. etc. But if Roberts is still out there, take the shot -- he is still only 50% owned on CBS.

Sergio Santos....I'm going to be honest, I have only seen him pitch once or twice. But when you are trolling for cheap saves, it means jumping now on guys you know you probably won't have on your roster for a very long time. That means biting the bullet and signing Darren Oliver for two weeks (has anyone played for more major league teams?).

It also means taking a shot on Santos, who has converted two straight saves in the back of the murky ChiSox bullpen -- and I think he has yet to piss off Ozzie Guillen, so roll with it while it lasts!

Definitely helps that when you check out his last 7 game log, Santos has posted goose eggs all the way down the dreaded ER column...and that's how you don't piss off Ozzie, and that's how you move up in the standings.

Good luck!