Links You May Find Interesting

Whither Clay Buchholz’s Fastball?

Something is clearly off with Buchholz if he is seeing nearly a three mph drop from the end of last year, but last year’s velocity increase throughout the season is encouraging news for anyone concerned that his fastball is gone and never coming back.

Frank McCourt to make longshot pitch to league officials

The result of that meeting could determine whether McCourt proceeds with legal action against Commissioner Bud Selig, but one longtime major league executive said Tuesday he is convinced nothing McCourt might say could sway Selig from moving toward new ownership of the Dodgers.

Still No Joe Mauer?

Today, Joe Mauer should be coming off the DL. He’s not. We don’t know why. We don’t know why he went on the DL in the first place, because after 2 weeks, it seems unlikely that it was just the flu. We don’t know what the specialist in Baltimore told him. And we don’t know what needs to happen for him to return, or how long that will be. I’m starting to wonder if anyone in the Twins does know.

24 Consecutive Games With A Hit Makes ESPN's Karabell Notice Ethier

Fantasy owners have a tendency to assume that a player performing above and beyond his past history early in a season is an automatic sell-high option. But in the case of Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Andre Ethier, who is in the midst of an April-record hitting streak (extended to 24 games Wednesday!), I'm not so sure that's the case. In March, I recommended numerous Dodgers as bounce-back choices, led by Matt Kemp, Ethier and Rafael Furcal and, to a lesser degree, James Loney and Jonathan Broxton (OK, so that's not working out), but as I watch Either hit against the Florida Marlins on Wednesday afternoon, I'm reminded that he can flat-out hit, and he looks versatile at the plate, stinging line drives all over the field.

Segura and Trout Continue to Break Out

Meanwhile, Jean Segura persists in simply dominating Cal League pitching, and launched his first two HRs Wednesday night with the 66ers in a 17 hit onslaught against the Mavericks in High Desert. This was coupled with two stolen bases to give him eight bags on the young season. Segura, who turned 21 in March, has made the transition to shortstop effortlessly, with only a single error in the first 18 games.

The Jose Bautista Cleanup Project

While more and more opponents may be intimidated of facing Jose Bautista, is it possible the Blue Jays aren't maximizing his potential by batting him in the three slot? On any other team, their best hitter would be hitting cleanup, but Bautista remains hitting third.

Are you enjoying the NBA Playoffs?

Oklahoma's Stars Have Words

Don’t get me wrong, Westbrook is a fantastic player, and at 22 he’s going to be one for a long time. But he’s a fantastic player with a Colorado-sized chip on his shoulder, and his quest to leave his imprint on every possession of every game often takes him racing past the nuances that could make him a better point guard and a better basketball player.

How the Grizzlies Came to Be

The process of returning the Grizzlies to respectability began in the summer of 2008 when the team traded for the draft rights to both O.J. Mayo and Darrell Arthur. To get Mayo’s rights they had to trade the rights to Kevin Love, but even though Love is currently the better player, Mayo has been a solid contributor to this year’s team. Arthur was disappointing in his first two seasons with the team, but has emerged as an athletic, energy guy off the bench for Memphis this season and is in the conversation for Most Improved Player.

The Season Thus Far...

It has been a great season so far.

Maybe, they all seem great to me. But I'm having fun watching the game this year. Really enjoying baseball. The Boston Red Sox are fighting their way back to a .500 winning percentage, a feat never accomplished by a team starting 0-6. But we all knew they were better than this. Their starters got off to a rough start but have been lights out lately. Dice-K Matsuzaka has been great in his last couple of starts, truly great, great like the hype said he would be five years ago. The starter that hasn't really come on as expected is Clay Buchholz. But we knew he was not quite what he seemed to be last season. Too much of that bad start is being credited to catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia and too much credit for the resurgence has gone to Jason Varitek. If you can afford to hold on to Salty, I would do it. Kevin Youkilis is hitting but not at the levels we know he can reach. Carl Crawford is slumping but has shown signs of emerging lately, he's way too good to give up on.

The Kansas City Royals and Cleveland Indians are shocking a lot of baseball fans with their hard-fought wins and losses. The Tribe's Jack Hannahan (an unlikely starter at third base by most reckonings) hit two homers last night against those Royals and their staff's number one starter Luke Hochevar. Hochevar has been a mixed bag this season. He has a decent whip but his era is a bit high at this point. Stick with him if you have nothing to lose or you can stash him against certain teams. But he is the kind of pitcher that will frustrate you over the course of the season. I have my eye on every player these two teams call up, because their best players have yet to arrive.

A ton of great players haven't really hit their rhythm yet. Albert Pujols has shown signs of breaking through his funk lately only to suffer a mild hamstring pull. Josh Hamilton is injured (again) and after a great start Nelson Cruz is slowing down a bit more than we like to see. Mark Teixeira also tried to break his slow start trend but hasn't really delivered the batting average. But it could be worse...

The Most Disappointing Ten (by fWAR) Thus Far

1. Raul Ibanez OF Phillies - He's losing at-bats to John Mayberry Jr.
2. Carl Crawford OF Red Sox - He'll be fine.
3. Aubrey Huff 1B/OF Giants - Is he back to that every odd year thing?
4. Juan Pierre OF White Sox - So much for speed never slumping...
5. Alex Rios OF White Sox - Now you know why the ChiSox are struggling to score runs...
6. James Loney 1B Dodgers - The man Jerry Sands will eventually force to be traded.
7. Chris Johnson 3B Astros - I'm shocked.
8. Miguel Tejada SS Giants - No, he doesn't have much left but he's still better than this.
9. Nick Markakis OF Orioles - He'll probably never be what we hoped, but trade for him now.
10. Brett Gardner OF Yankees - Supposedly his swing is messed up. I'm a little worried.

and so we're not dwelling on the negative...

The Best of the Best Thus Far... (another Top Ten by fWAR)

1. Jose Bautista 3B Blue Jays - Now do you believe?
2. Joey Votto 1B Reds - MVP, MVP, MVP!
3. Troy Tulowitski SS Rockies - I thought those picking him 2nd overall would be disappointed, opps...
4. Matt Holliday OF Cardinals - "I don't need no damn rehab games or time off!"
5. Howie Kendrick 2B Angels - Finally!
6. Ryan Braun OF Brewers - Already rewarded with a new contract. Groundball hitter...HAH!
7. Curtis Granderson OF Yankees - Ok, coach you fixed Grandy but you screwed up Jeter and Gardner!
8. Colby Rasmus OF Cardinals - This might be the season he puts it all together.
9. Matt Kemp OF Dodgers - I never doubted you, buddy!
10. Andre Ethier OF Dodgers - Outfielders are ready, just need an owner.

In case you care, I've not been well lately. Nothing tragic, but I've been exhausted. Too much so to do much more than work my crazy stressful day job and deal with my four hours of commuting back and forth. I hope you've enjoyed reading Pauly and Lucky's work, I'm praying they'll stick around. But this site isn't going anywhere but up and to better places in the future.

Pauly's Pickup of the Week: Nick Hundley

OK I may be a tiny bit biased about this one, but here's my case.

Back on draft day, I put Hundley up for auction as my second nominee at my 10-team NL-only auction. I put him up for a dollar, since I only bid $1 for catchers, just to see what would happen. Would it become a nightmare when low-ranked guys like Hundley actually went for more than a dollar? Well, it wouldn't, because I put up Hundley and all I heard were crickets.

So, I landed him for a buck, but I wasn't that worried. Hundley was tearing the cover off the ball in spring training, he is the magic age of 27, and he has three good years under his belt with a steadily progressing OPS.

Catcher, as a fantasy position, is the closest thing to a barren wasteland of contributors as you can get, and most people are just trying to find a guy that wont hurt them, as opposed to helping them. With a guy like Hundley, you can likely have your cake and eat it too -- at least the way he is raking right now.

Needless to say, Hundley has already earned his dollar this season, batting .361 and slugging .639 through his first 11 games. Let's compare that to the 12 catchers who were picked before him (excluding the big-money guys, who, outside of McCann, Hundley is outperforming anyway).

Hundley: .361 avg 2 HR 1.081 OPS

1. Geovany Soto: .220 avg 1 HR .646 OPS
2. Miguel Montero: .444 avg 2 HR 1.262 OPS
3. Mike Napoli: .333 avg 3 HR 1.312 OPS
4. Matt Wieters: .212 avg 1 HR .661 OPS
5. Yadier Molina: .189 avg 0 HR .539 OPS
6. Carlos Ruiz: .351 avg 2 HR .982 OPS
7. Kurt Suzuki: .186 avg 1 HR .581 OPS
8. Jorge Posada: .189 avg 5 HR .825 OPS
9. J.P. Arencibia: .323 avg 2 HR 1.110 OPS
10. Chris Iannetta: .207 1 HR .866 OPS
11. Russell Martin: .289 3 HR .904 OPS
12. John Buck: .217 1 HR .641 OPS

As you can see, of everybody who spent more than you on draft day for a catcher (forget the dudes who banked on McCann, Mauer, Posey, Martinez and Santana -- that's a discussion of craziness for another article), only those who drafted Miguel Montero, J.P. Arencibia and Mike Napoli are feeling as good as Hundley owners right now -- and those owners undoubtedly spent much more at the draft to earn those stats.

Can Hundley keep it up? Sure, a .440 BABIP isn't going to last, but Hundley has already been moved up into the heart of the San Diego lineup (he hit fifth on Thursday), with the rest of the team struggling offensively. The bottom line for me is Hundley is a guy who was trending upward heading into the season, had a great spring training, and is continuing that rise to start the season.

Nick Hundley isn't Carlton Fisk, but if you own some of those guys above, it may be time to consider a change. Go pick up Hundley and pawn dead weight like Wieters or Soto to a less-savvy owner for something that can actually help you in the short- and/or long-term. The longer these high-priced catchers suck, the less time you have to cash in on their perceived value.

My pitcher pick for this week remains Alexi Ogando. Go get him!

Pauly's Pickups of the Week: Brennan Boesch & Alexi Ogando

For all of you who missed out on the Jordan Walden sweepstakes, here are a couple of guys to keep a close eye on (and potentially make a move). I understand that everyone's league is different, but my pickups of the week should apply to your standard 12-team formats.

And if last week's recommendation is any indication, these choices are merely suggestions :)

Hitter of the week: Brennan Boesch OF Det
Those of us who rode the Boesch roller coaster last year know how good it can be when the young outfielder is running hot. They key is to get while the gettin's good -- and now is that time. Why? Because this guy is about as free as a free-swinger can get, which usually translates into the highest of highs and rock-bottom lows.

Boesch hit .342/.397/.593 in the first half last year, was actually snubbed (arguably) from the all-star team, and was leading the AL Rookie of the Year race by a mile. But of course, his ultra-aggressive approach eventually caught up to him, and he hit an almost unbelievable .163/.237/.222 the rest of the way.

As of now, Boesch is getting a lot of playing time, and even opened the season with hits in four of his first five games. Sure, he didnt have any walks in that span, but he does have two free bags in his last three games (albeit with no hits) -- for a guy with only 40 walks in 464 ABs last year, this might actually be an improvement.

In any case, it doesnt hurt to pick up a hot player, and Boesch certainly fits that category right now.

Pitcher of the Week: Alexi Ogando, Tex
Last week I was in Vegas blowing $ with my uncanny ability to pick the wrong side of baseball games -- and during an incredible streak that saw me pick 9 games and win only ONE (ouch), I did happen upon this rookie starting pitcher with the Texas Rangers.

For my bet, I had taken the underdog and much more heralded rookie, Michael Pineda of Seattle, to upset Ogando and the Rangers. But the young Dominican converted outfielder stole the show (and my cash) with a downright nasty fastball that was hitting 95-plus routinely with movement, along with a very good-looking slider and splitter.

Ogando may be a risk, since he does not have extended time pitching (only 112 IP over four years in the minors), is only filling in for Brandon Webb right now (well that's not so bad), and lets face it, the Mariners hitting lineup might be worse than the University of Virginia's.

However, with this kind of electric stuff, be sure to see what Ogando does in his next start, which comes today at 1 p.m. against the Detroit Tigers and Justin Verlander.

UPDATE: Ogando looked awesome today, pitching 7 innings with 4 K, 1 BB, 2 hits allowed and no runs. If Neftali Feliz shuts the door, Mr. Ogando is 2-0 and has himself a pretty decent ERA (that's under 1.00, kids). Mark my words, he will be the hot pickup across fantasy baseball....probably in less than 2 weeks.

Pauly's Pickup of the Week: Takashi Saito

Time to throw out those multi-sheet projections (better yet, recycle them)....it was opening day yesterday, which means it's time to start going on some real numbers.

When you have 6 total MLB games to go on, the player pool for the first pickup of the week is rather thin, but thanks to Ramon Hernandez, it was pretty easy to pick the first one - Brewers RP Takashi Saito.

Heading into the season on those projection sheets, John Axford looked pretty decent -- he was a good strikeout guy last season and was very successful in the closer's role, converting 24 of 27. What a difference a day makes, as the second-year pitcher got utterly torched with an inherited three-run lead, looked bad doing it, and the debacle was capped by a three-run walk-off HR courtesy of the light-hitting Hernandez.

Yes, it is just one game, and yes, Axford only gave up one HR in 58 innings last year, but -- in all honesty -- my eye was on Saito even before this mess.

Saito may be flying under the radar because of his more limited (than he is used to) role with the Braves last season. Even so, he was still extremely effective (2.83 ERA and 1.07 WHIP) -- something that happens with Saito just about every season. Take away his one year with the Red Sox (the year his closer role was stripped away), and the career WHIP is in the 1.05 range.

Let's not forget that Saito was a big-time closer for the Dodgers for three straight years from '06-'09, where he averaged 20-plus saves with some of the best ratios you could hope for; and not only that, but he is also a true contributor in Ks for an RP. Yesterday Saito came into the 8th inning with a 3-run lead and gave up two singles, but he also struck out two and got out of the inning unscathed.

For all Axford accomplished last season, he is still not the most experienced closer on Milwaukee. If you aren't willing to take Saito now for the ERA, WHIP and Ks, you'd best keep an eye on him and Axford in Milwaukee.

I will be on the road in Vegas next Friday, so Pauly's Pickups of the Week will next appear on Monday April 11. From then on, this column will appear on Fridays. --Pauly

Opening Day is Here!

Today is the day we rest. Well, first we set our lineups, (it's a long week one in some leagues, not ending until April 10th for some) then we sit down crack open a few beers (after we call in sick) and just chill (after we take the kids to school) and watch the games, one after the other.

Opening Day should be a holiday, if Valentines Day and St Patrick's Day count as real holidays, I think Opening Day is on a par with Christmas. Are you with me? Let's write our congressmen.

A few things to remember:

1. You can check out all the opening day rosters and DL moves at MLBdepthcharts.com
2. Have fun today, don't stress about your weekend drafts.
3. Chat about the game with other Roto-Junkies!

Peace and Happy Opening Day!

DRAFT INFLATION

Draft Inflation is one of the least understood concepts in all of fantasy baseball. Some people try to ignore it, which is about as practical as ignoring gravity...you do so at your own peril.

A fantasy auction is not, as some claim, an example of a free market. Demand is fixed. We can have no more than five outfielders or two catchers (without using the UT slot). On the other hand, we must have no fewer than five outfielders and two catchers. Supply is fixed...in the AL, we have 25 players each on 14 teams to choose from. Most importantly, the amount we spend is fixed. No matter what, we all have the same amount of money. But even though supply, demand and funds are finite and predetermined, the possible scenarios are practically limitless, more so in a keeper league.

I have heard owners say things like “Boy, the price for speed was inflated today”, or “Rangers will have inflated salaries since the auction is in Dallas”. I even heard one owner in a redraft league talking about what he expected the inflation rate to be in his auction. But, the cost of a single category cannot be inflated, nor can the salaries of a certain team be inflated. And pre-auction inflation cannot exist in a non-keeper league. What these owners were talking about were league preferences or tendencies. Your league may pay a lot for ace starters, or the top closers, or the speedsters, or whatever commodity is in the shortest supply. Every league is different. But when it comes to inflation, all keeper leagues are alike in the important particulars.

Inflation is a function of the value (projected) of the players frozen and the cost (actual salary) of those players. These two factors determine how much money will be chasing how much value in the auction. Assuming the value of the players kept is, in the aggregate, greater than their cost, inflation results.

Inflation should always be calculated as part of preparation for an auction in a keeper league. Calculated, not estimated or guessed. You can calculate it with reasonable accuracy even before the freeze date, provided you can fairly well project what the other owners’ freeze lists will look like. (And yes, projecting all the other freeze lists can be valuable part of auction preparation.)

It is simply calculated. Let’s use a mixed league example. A 15-team $260 mixed league has $3900 in salary dollars to spend. The non-inflated value of the 345 players frozen and to be purchased in a mixed league auction is also $3900. (This is a tenet of fantasy baseball...that the value of the players selected equals the total of dollars to be spent. I can go into this more deeply, but for now let’s just assume it is true.) For purposes of this example, let’s say the total projected value of all keepers in the league is $2060, and that the total salary dedicated to those keepers is $1363. To calculate a league’s inflation rate, you first subtract the total projected value of the keepers from the total value of the player pool, which gives you $1840. Then you take the actual cost of the players kept, and subtract this sum from the total league salary, which gives you the sum of $2537. So, you have $2537 auction dollars chasing $1840 worth of non-inflated auction value. This difference is what drives the price of players upward. Divide the auction dollars by the auction talent ($2537 divided by $1840), and you get 1.379. That means the league inflation is 37.9%.

Every player’s projected auction value must be increased to account for a this inflation rate. A $45 Crawford becomes a $63 Crawford. The $20 player now becomes a $28 player. A $1 player remains $1. The reason this player is a $1 to begin with is that only one person is able or willing to spend a dollar on him.

So, what do you do about inflation? Some owners may decide not to pay the inflated prices demanded by the auction. These owners will not get any of the best players. Eventually, they either give in and pay the inflated price, or they will wind up at the end of the auction with a large amount of money and little or nothing to spend it on.

As mentioned in a previous article, the object is not to come out of the auction with a team worth $260. The object is to come out of the auction with a team which will make a profit. But each dollar you spend on a player above his projected value reduces the overall value of your team. If you have $60 salary tied up in your keepers, have $200 to spend at the auction, and the inflation rate is 25%, then you should get only $160 in value for your money due to inflation. This would knock a big hole in the profits you have in your keepers. (The math on this threw me for awhile. I kept getting $150. But you’re not discounting $200 in salary by 25%. You are increasing the cost of $160 worth of players by 25%. It works. You can try it yourself.)

Keepers create profit. Inflation takes it away.

The task then becomes finding a way to counteract this phenomenon, or as the lapel buttons during the Gerald Ford administration said, “WIN" for "Whip Inflation Now”. This can be done, so long as you have a solid handle on player values and have calculated inflation accurately. But you have to be confident of your calculations in this regard.

Here are some things you can do, which will depend in part upon the knowledge and tendencies of the other owners in your league. These tips or strategy are designed primarily for leagues with very high inflation, which I consider to be 40% or higher.

In many auctions, the first people thrown are the biggest stars. I fully expect Albert Pujols to be nominated first in my mixed league auction this Saturday. Sometimes owners are hesitant to bid big on the first few players. They may be unwilling to bid the full inflated value on these early players. (They may decide that they want to wait “until the inflation goes down”.) But if your calculations show the inflated value of Hanley Ramirez to be $53, and he’s going once, going twice for $42, you have a chance to step up and get a substantial bargain. His non-inflated value might be only $36 in your league, but if you have grabbed him up for $43, you have added profit to your team.

Some leagues are much more savvy to inflation, and will not let those big stars go for less than their inflated values. Instead, these leagues will actually pay more than the inflated values for the big name players. They may believe, as some do, that inflation impacts the highest priced players disproportionately. They may think the key to winning is having big stars regardless of price. Or they may just have a serious desire to roster Albert Pujols. Whatever the reason for this tendency, you can use it to your advantage.

The dynamics of an auction in progress can impact the inflation rate. As mentioned above, the thing to do when the auction starts with owners paying less than the full inflated rate for players, this is the time when you step in and start buying players. The inflation rate will actually under circumstances. However, if owners start off paying more than the inflated value, inflation will begin to decrease. This will eventually yield bargains among the second tier players, as the owners have overspent. Patience is required for this to work, and you have to make certain there adequate value still on the board. Your money will do no good if there are no players to spend it on.

But what an auction in a league where the other owners have calculated inflation and are buying players at or near the inflated value? Finding profit is harder to do in this case. One thing you can do is to nominate a second tier player while there are still more valuable players available at his position. The other owners may not bid as aggressively on this second tier player if they have their eye on one of the higher value players. But, you cannot wait too long; you cannot wait until after all the stars are gone. If you do, you’ll be going up against owners with money who will bid your guy to full inflated value, or more, if position scarcity is a consideration.

You may also have some guys you are sitting on, guys you have picked to outperform what is expected from them. I would recommend sitting on these guys for as long as possible, only throwing them out when necessary. Of course, you may find that some other owner may be sitting on the same guy, in which case you might wind up in a bidding war.

Inflation rates vary from league to league and from year to year, depending upon the quality of keepers frozen. Some leagues have minimal inflation, near 10%, while other leagues may have inflation rates of 40%, 50%, even 75% or higher. Some owners feel that hyper-inflation can detract from the enjoyment of the league, and I have seen that happen. So where does super high inflation come from?

Various factors can contribute to extremely high inflation. There may be a large difference in skill levels among owners, with more resourceful owners picking players in the auction or reserve draft at salaries which make them superb keepers. It may be that the league has a keeper policy that is very liberal, such as being able to keep players for lengthy periods with minimal salary increases. Some leagues don’t assign substantial salaries to the players taken in their reserve draft. Some leagues have free agent or waiver procedures that increase the number of top keepers. Some leagues don’t start the contract of minor leaguers to running until they make it to the majors or even until they lose their rookie status.

There are some things you can do in your league if inflation is a concern in these areas. Make all contracts commence running at the time the player is acquired, and limit contracts to three years. If contracts may be extended, they should cost a substantial amount during each year of the extension. Assign substantial salaries to reserve draft rounds, such as $15 for the first round, $10 for the next few rounds, etc. Make the contracts of minor leaguers start running immediately. Require a minimum bid for free agents, such as $5. Don’t allow free agent bidding after the rosters expand in September. (Some of these ideas have been around since the beginnings of leagues with active rosters and large reserve rosters. Whether you utilize them or not can determine in large part what your league’s inflation rate will be. Semi-related note...I read recently of a league which misconstrued the language of their borrowed Constitution, resulting in their belief that a player being traded started a new contract clock. So, owners would wait until the third year of a contract, and then trade that player to another owner for a player in his third year. All the best players in the league had been under cheap contracts for years and years. They didn't understand why they had such massive inflation. They were shocked to learn the reason, and moved quickly to correct that misunderstanding.)

Whether you like it or not, inflation is a part of the game if you play in a keeper league. How you deal with it can determine whether you are a contender or a cellar dweller.

Well, that’s it for this week’s article. I hope it has deepened your appreciation of this topic, or at least has reminded you to be aware of the impact inflation may have in your upcoming auction.

Do you have any stories of crazy inflation in your league, or your own tips for beating auction inflation? Let's hear them in the comments section. I may have a new crazy inflation story or two after this weekend.

Good luck, and have fun!