Wednesday, February 16, 2011
Spring Training Points of Interest
Isn't Spring Training freakin' awesome? I love it. This is the time of year when I rarely watch any show that isn't on the MLB Network. So many rumors and stories to follow and many of them are fantasy relevant.
Michael Young is beginning to look like a future Florida Marlin. It seems odd to think that the Marlins would take on the salary of Young, and they are not likely to take on all of it, but they have become the favorites to acquire the Rangers' captain. The fish do have a huge hole at third base this year. They also have a ton of welfare money they've been sitting on. Young's numbers in Florida's pitching friendly stadium probably wouldn't be quite as good but he'd become a major part of a potentially awesome young lineup. If you aren't drooling over Mike Stanton's potential this season, you have not been paying attention.
Here are five other stories that should interest you:
The Top 50 Fantasy Sports Blogs
I would have linked to this article anyway, but being included on the list flattered and amazed me. I'll be checking out many of these sites myself. I wish I'd known about some of the basketball blogs a few months ago.
The St. Louis Cardinals and Albert Pujols
Some fans are starting to call Albert Pujols greedy for his contract demands but I don't think so. Most fantasy baseball participants understand that Pujols is the best everyday player in the game. You would be hard pressed to find any negatives on Pujols. This isn't Jayson Werth getting an inflated contract, this is the best player in the game looking to get appropriate compensation.
What Position will Jose Bautista Claim?
I've already covered what I think of Jose Bautista's ability to repeat his amazing power show in 2011. But will it happen at third base or in the outfield? The outfield is surprisingly shallow in deeper leagues where everyone is looking for five starters. Third base is pretty deep these days especially if you include some of the great prospects like Lonnie Chisenhall and Mike Moustakas. I vote for the outfield.
Can A.J. Burnett get it back?
I think so. Burnett has bounced back before so he can do it again. Plus, it is being kept quiet but apparently he dealt with a load of personal problems last season that threw off his focus. A.J. is also a pitcher that needs to be clicking with his catcher and that has been tough for him with the Yankees. I think Russell Martin can help here if he is healthy and effective.
Joe Nathan and Justin Morneau Comebacks in the Works
This may shock you. I'm am far more confident in the return of Joe Nathan to dominating closer than I am Justin Morneau to top notch first baseman. Nathan is already tossing the ball 90 miles-per-hour and swears he'll be ready to start the season. The Twins may want to hedge that bet but Nathan looks good and talks a great game. Justin Morneau has concussion problems that the thing about head injuries is that they don't just go away. In fact each concussion makes the next one ore likely. Scary thought.
I have an article on late round starting pitchers that has been in the works for a few weeks almost ready to go and the annual sleepers article will be posted very soon as well. Join the site by clicking the panel in the right side bar, go ahead, everyone is doing it.
Sunday, January 30, 2011
OOTP12 and a chance to win an I-pod Touch
When I first discovered Out Of the Park it ruined an entire week of plans. You know why? Because it is an awesome game. If you like baseball and playing GM, and as a fantasy owner, I know you do. This game gives you some of what you can't get from more basic versions of fantasy baseball.
You get entire organizations to control. Not just 25-man rosters but an entire minor league system. You have scouts who report back to you. You hire the manager and his staff. You sign free agents, you control the draft. Other GM's (automated if you play alone, your friends if you form a league) will e-mail you with trade offers and comments. Seriously, I spent nearly every free minute of a week after getting this game messing with the many options of this game. You will too.
I'm getting nothing for sharing this news, I just like the game a lot.
Here is more from the creators:
Pre-Order from January 25th through January 31st:
Only $29.99 - save $10!
Get OOTP 12 two days before public release
The opportunity to win an iPod Touch + iOOTP *
Lineup Improvements in OOTP 12
PC Gamer called OOTP 11 "a no-doubt, walk-off home run no-brainer to become a part of your game collection," and OOTP 12 is no different. Our All-Star lineup of features gets better every year, and we've again improved many of them during this off-season. We're not done yet, so stay tuned to future newsletters.
2011 Major League Rosters
Here's a treat: the best roster set we've ever produced, from the big leagues' top stars to the guys making their debuts in rookie leagues. All players are individually rated with updated statistics and realistic contract data. Last year's top draft picks are included too. Could Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg, with the veteran leadership of newly-acquired All-Star Jayson Werth, help propel the Washington Nationals to the top of the National League East in coming seasons?
Revamped Financial System
The Philadelphia Phillies shook the baseball world this winter when they signed top-flight free agent pitcher Cliff Lee, despite expectations that he would opt for the highest bidder. Now you can do the same with OOTP's improved player contract negotiations, which are more realistic and fun. You can even try to talk your owner into expanding the available budget, letting you squeeze in another All-Star contract. Don't forget to stay on top of the latest free agent signings and other news in the new off-season center, and keep your finger on the pulse of your team's finances with an improved view.
Contract possibilities are now more realistic, including vesting options, buyouts, minor league split contracts, signing bonuses and more performance bonus options. You can even now include remaining contract payments as an option in trades with AI-controlled GMs.
Online Leagues
We're proud to support Official OOTP Online Leagues with a full-featured interface inside OOTP 12. With just one click, you can join a team, and creating a league is just as easy. Commissioners can make their leagues public and advertise open teams, with the ability to accept or deny requests from would-be GMs.
Official OOTP Online Leagues offer several key advantages:
- League files are patches rather than full-size files, saving plenty of up- and download time.
- Reports can be saved in MySQL databases, increasing their upload speed.
- Forget about FTP: team data exports and imports work through the database. That results in improved compatibility and security for the league web site server.
- An export tracker.
- The promise of more great features to come, including online drafts and trades.
Greater Immersion and Realism
Historical leagues benefit from improved AI and real life transactions and as-played lineups as optional features. Thanks to OOTP's sophisticated game engine, you'll be able to enjoy the most realistic historical simulation results possible. How would the 1927 Yankees fare against their 1961 counterparts?
In addition, storylines have been expanded, and there are new ways to interact with your players. News presentations have also been revamped, making you feel like you're part of the hectic 24-hour "better stay on top of this" news cycle that dominates today's sports reporting.
In-Game and Core Engine Changes
Like a manager constantly seeking ways to get the most out of his lineup, we're always tinkering under OOTP's hood. Here's what you can look forward to this year:
- Recoded parts of the in-game AI, making it the most challenging ever in an OOTP game.
- Improved in-game sound, adding better quality sound files and more variation.
- Improved player evaluation AI, resulting in more realistic AI roster moves.
- Recoded parts of the trading AI.
- Recoded parts of the scouting engine.
- Improved injury and recovery system.
- Added WAR (Wins Above Replacement) as a statistic.
- Added a playoff roster for more realistic team transactions.
- Greatly enhanced the world database structure, resulting in more realistic fictional league and player creation.
- Added a simulation module, allowing you to match up two teams from the same league for a set number of games and see the simulation results. This is great for research purposes or just for toying around. For example, how would the 1927 Yankees fare against the 2004 Red Sox?
But that's not all - the feature list is not final yet and will include even more great additions before the game is released. Stay tuned.
The home team has taken their positions in the field and the first batter is approaching home plate. What will happen next? Find out in OOTP 12. Pre-order your copy today!
The OOTP Developments Team
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
Pitcher Rankings - Three Year FIP
Name | W | L | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | GB% | ERA | FIP |
Tim Lincecum | 49 | 22 | 664.2 | 10.25 | 3.09 | 0.53 | 0.299 | 0.77 | 0.47 | 2.83 | 2.69 |
Cliff Lee | 48 | 25 | 667.1 | 7.23 | 1.28 | 0.61 | 0.302 | 0.75 | 0.43 | 2.98 | 2.85 |
Roy Halladay | 58 | 31 | 735.2 | 7.74 | 1.27 | 0.78 | 0.293 | 0.79 | 0.52 | 2.67 | 3.03 |
Zack Greinke | 39 | 32 | 651.2 | 8.37 | 2.24 | 0.69 | 0.306 | 0.73 | 0.43 | 3.25 | 3.05 |
Adam Wainwright | 50 | 22 | 595.1 | 7.8 | 2.36 | 0.67 | 0.283 | 0.79 | 0.50 | 2.68 | 3.16 |
CC Sabathia | 57 | 25 | 720.2 | 8.06 | 2.5 | 0.71 | 0.285 | 0.75 | 0.47 | 3.07 | 3.27 |
Justin Verlander | 48 | 35 | 665.1 | 8.81 | 2.99 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.70 | 0.39 | 3.84 | 3.27 |
Felix Hernandez | 41 | 28 | 689 | 8.15 | 2.89 | 0.64 | 0.283 | 0.77 | 0.53 | 2.69 | 3.28 |
Jon Lester | 50 | 23 | 621.2 | 8.72 | 3.08 | 0.69 | 0.3 | 0.76 | 0.49 | 3.29 | 3.31 |
Mike Mussina | 20 | 9 | 200.1 | 6.74 | 1.39 | 0.76 | 0.321 | 0.73 | 0.49 | 3.37 | 3.32 |
Dan Haren | 42 | 30 | 680.1 | 8.53 | 1.75 | 1.02 | 0.295 | 0.75 | 0.42 | 3.47 | 3.33 |
Tommy Hanson | 21 | 15 | 330.1 | 7.87 | 2.78 | 0.65 | 0.282 | 0.75 | 0.41 | 3.16 | 3.38 |
Ubaldo Jimenez | 46 | 32 | 638.1 | 8.23 | 3.95 | 0.48 | 0.283 | 0.74 | 0.52 | 3.43 | 3.42 |
Chad Billingsley | 40 | 32 | 588.2 | 8.42 | 3.59 | 0.6 | 0.302 | 0.73 | 0.48 | 3.58 | 3.42 |
Hiroki Kuroda | 28 | 30 | 497 | 6.56 | 2.06 | 0.72 | 0.28 | 0.68 | 0.51 | 3.6 | 3.46 |
Colby Lewis | 12 | 13 | 201 | 8.78 | 2.91 | 0.94 | 0.275 | 0.72 | 0.38 | 3.72 | 3.55 |
Wandy Rodriguez | 34 | 31 | 538 | 8.4 | 2.93 | 0.85 | 0.304 | 0.74 | 0.45 | 3.36 | 3.55 |
Johan Santana | 40 | 25 | 600 | 7.44 | 2.46 | 0.89 | 0.275 | 0.80 | 0.37 | 2.85 | 3.59 |
Roy Oswalt | 38 | 29 | 601.2 | 7.42 | 2.15 | 0.91 | 0.279 | 0.75 | 0.47 | 3.44 | 3.6 |
Jered Weaver | 40 | 30 | 612 | 8.22 | 2.56 | 1.01 | 0.283 | 0.74 | 0.33 | 3.65 | 3.64 |
Ricky Nolasco | 42 | 26 | 555 | 8.56 | 1.93 | 1.22 | 0.299 | 0.69 | 0.39 | 4.31 | 3.66 |
Cole Hamels | 36 | 32 | 629.2 | 8.22 | 2.24 | 1.11 | 0.288 | 0.77 | 0.42 | 3.46 | 3.7 |
Derek Lowe | 45 | 33 | 599.1 | 5.92 | 2.54 | 0.72 | 0.305 | 0.71 | 0.58 | 3.95 | 3.72 |
Josh Beckett | 35 | 22 | 514.1 | 8.52 | 2.34 | 1.1 | 0.311 | 0.70 | 0.45 | 4.39 | 3.72 |
Ryan Dempster | 43 | 27 | 622 | 8.2 | 3.28 | 0.88 | 0.292 | 0.74 | 0.48 | 3.49 | 3.76 |
Jair Jurrjens | 34 | 26 | 519.2 | 6.53 | 3.24 | 0.68 | 0.287 | 0.74 | 0.46 | 3.45 | 3.76 |
Matt Cain | 35 | 33 | 658.2 | 7.3 | 3.07 | 0.86 | 0.27 | 0.77 | 0.36 | 3.27 | 3.81 |
Joel Pineiro | 32 | 26 | 515 | 4.86 | 1.68 | 0.84 | 0.295 | 0.69 | 0.55 | 4.07 | 3.86 |
Javier Vazquez | 37 | 36 | 585 | 8.6 | 2.62 | 1.18 | 0.291 | 0.72 | 0.39 | 4.17 | 3.86 |
Carlos Zambrano | 34 | 19 | 487.2 | 7.36 | 4.04 | 0.65 | 0.288 | 0.74 | 0.45 | 3.71 | 3.88 |
Andy Pettitte | 39 | 25 | 527.2 | 6.94 | 2.93 | 0.89 | 0.309 | 0.71 | 0.47 | 4.09 | 3.9 |
John Danks | 40 | 31 | 608.1 | 6.95 | 2.96 | 0.9 | 0.278 | 0.75 | 0.44 | 3.61 | 3.91 |
Scott Baker | 38 | 22 | 542.2 | 7.48 | 2.21 | 1.18 | 0.293 | 0.74 | 0.34 | 4.11 | 3.95 |
Ricky Romero | 27 | 18 | 388 | 7.31 | 3.73 | 0.77 | 0.309 | 0.73 | 0.55 | 3.99 | 3.95 |
Jonathan Sanchez | 30 | 33 | 514.2 | 9.43 | 4.53 | 0.94 | 0.281 | 0.73 | 0.41 | 4.04 | 4.01 |
Monday, January 24, 2011
Can Ubaldo Jimenez Repeat?
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
2011 Sleeper: Jeff Francis SP Kansas City Royals
At first glance, it doesn't appear that Jeff Francis has ever been a desired fantasy starter. Before you look at his stats you know that he's spent his entire major league career pitching at Coor Field. Coors Field, the longtime bane of fantasy owners everywhere when it comes to pitching, has made many decent pitchers look abominable. Francis is included in that class but he can't blame it all on the thin air.
Francis, at least in the majors, has posted mediocre strikeout and walk rates. Not terrible rates, but nothing to make an ambitious fantasy owner take notice. His HR9 has been all over the place from awesome to abysmal. However he does induce a decent number of groundballs. With skills like these it is pretty easy to understand why with so many teams looking for starters (teams with cash to spend like the Yankees, Mets, Rangers and Cubs) Francis landed on the Kansas City Royals.
But as most of us understand these days, a pitcher's skills are not the entire story. There are park factors, team defense, and luck that factor into things.
Even in the era of the humidor, Coors Field is not exactly a friendly place for pitchers. According to StatCorner.com's Park Factors, Coors Field had the following influence in 2010:
PARK FACTORS (LHB/RHB) | ||||
K: | 87 / 90 | GB: | 102 / 103 | |
BB: | 103 / 89 | OF: | 91 / 93 | |
1B: | 103 / 104 | LD: | 129 / 128 | |
2B: | 104 / 120 | IF: | 95 / 90 | |
3B: | 121 / 188 | HBP: | 72 / 99 | |
HR: | 116 / 117 | wOBA: | 108 / 112 |
If you were wondering why the Rockies have had such bad luck signing free agent pitchers, here is your first clue. Unless a guy is desperate to line with pockets with greenbacks, free agent pitchers will go elsewhere. Here are the numbers for the new place - Kauffman Stadium:
PARK FACTORS (LHB/RHB) | ||||
K: | 88 / 92 | GB: | 106 / 101 | |
BB: | 104 / 91 | OF: | 100 / 108 | |
1B: | 104 / 102 | LD: | 105 / 106 | |
2B: | 117 / 106 | IF: | 85 / 93 | |
3B: | 122 / 126 | HBP: | 115 / 82 | |
HR: | 73 / 85 | wOBA: | 104 / 100 |
What you really want to look at is that homerun factor. At Coors Field 116/117 and in KC, 73/85. The rest is a lot closer than you might think, but a 30 percent swing in homerun rate could do wonders for any pitcher. A plus for Jeff Francis and his potential fantasy value.
Both the Royals and Rockies were bad defensive teams last year. In fact, the Rockies and Royals rate as the worst and second worst defensive team by UZR/150 the last three seasons. The Rockies at -5.8 and the Royals at -5.7 were basically just as bad. Fortunately, the Royals have reason to believe they have significantly improved their overall defense. Jeff Francoeur, Lorenzo Cain, and Alcides Escobar should all be significant improvements defensively. Very unscientifically, I'm going to say that the Royals should be a good defensive team in 2011. Another plus for Francis and his fantasy value.
I hate the very idea of luck. Probably because I have a severe lack of it, at least the good kind. It is also almost impossible to measure in any accurate way. francis has a career BABIP of .314 but he's been over that mark four out of six seasons (he missed the 2009 season due to injury). That sounds like bad luck, the horrid defense factors into that as well. His LOB percentage is all over the place but it has mostly been below 70 percent, which looks like bad luck. Inconsistent bullpens and lousy managers don't help, but it was at 64.5 percent in 2010 which looks like real bad luck. With so much bad luck in Jeff's history we can only hope the change of scenery brings brings better luck to Francis and his fantasy owners.
Jeff Francis is not a great pitcher but he is a decent one. Before his injury he proved to be fairly durable. He pitched at near a league average level (that may be a bit generous) in one of the worst pitching environments the world has ever known. In an improved pitching environment he should has a pretty good chance at a career best season. One that fantasy owners in AL-only leagues should like seeing on their stat sheets, and mixed leaguers may want to gamble on in the late rounds or dollar days.
Tuesday, January 18, 2011
2011 Sleeper: Brad Emaus 2B (or utility) New York Mets
Reese Havens is the future at the position if all goes well but for now it appears to be a competition between four players: Daniel Murphy, Brad Emaus, Justin Turner and the incumbent Luis Castillo.
Last year the Mets the Mets saw Daniel Murphy as an infield option but injury took him out early in the season and he was not a factor in 2010. But Murphy is now healthy and expected to compete for the job of starting second baseman. To prepare for the 2011 season Murphy signed up for the Dominican Winter League. He batted .320/.395/.515 with four homers and five steals (only caught once) in 103 at-bats. A small sample to be sure, but an encouraging one.
Murphy is a natural third baseman but the Mets believe he can handle second base defensively, or at least that he'll be better in the infield than the outfield. From a scouting report in the Boston Globe:
"He’s a good enough athlete where he can pull it off,’’ said the scout, "but it will take time just to learn all the nuances of the position. I can see their thinking. He can hit. A sound player. This would be a nice conversion for them at a position they need help at."Murphy has the patience to draw walks. He is also a good contact hitter but swings at a few too many pitches out of the strike zone, which limits his batting average potential. He has decent power for a middle infielder and the speed and ability to steal 15-20 bases in full-time at-bats. Murphy is probably the favorite to win the position based on his talent and major league experience. He's likely to be on the major league roster even if he fails to win the starting job. Murphy seems idealy suited for an injury prone Mets team. He can play several positions and will not embarrass himself with the bat. Those skills are best utilized from the bench.
The Mets picked up Justin Turner on waivers from the Baltimore Orioles where he was a fan favorite but was apparently unappreciated by the team's management. In his brief Major league appearances Turner has failed to hit effectively. Turner can play all over the infield including short stop and the Mets called him up when Jose Reyes needed a mid-summer break. But despite his major league woes, turner had a very strong season in Triple-A for the Mets, batting .333/.390/.516 with 11 homers and five steals (caught three times) in 312 at-bats. He followed his strong Triple-A stint with a solid performance in the Dominican Winter League where he slashed .318/.382/.438 with a homer in 80 at-bats.
Turner has always shown the ability to hit for a strong batting average. This is based mostly on his strong contact skills, and some ability to draw walks. He has a little pop, nothing to write home about, and doesn't steal bases. His value is in hitting for average and defensive versatility. He is also a very strong hitter against left-handed pitchers. Although he is seemingly popular wherever he goes, Turner may be the unlikeliest candidate for the job based on a lack of power and speed but he has his supporters.
Luis Castillo was a decent player with the Florida Marlins who brought him up and with the Minnesota Twins during his short stint with them. He has never shown any power. His fanalytic value has always been tied to his batting average and stolen bases. His speed on the bases has gradually evaporated and the batting average comes and goes. For the Mets, Castillo has been bad and worse, two out of three seasons. He still draws a decent number of walks but his average has been so bad that his on-base percentages have been mediocre. The decline in speed has also killed his defense, which has been terrible for the Mets. Even if Castillo had a great Spring Training he would have a hard time winning the faith of the Mets management.
The Mets used their first Rule V draft pick on natural second baseman Brad Emaus, so he must stay on the major league roster for the entire season or be offered back to the Toronto Blue Jays. It is difficult to say how determined the Mets are to have Emaus on the 25-man roster. One the one hand, they did draft him and pay the Blue Jays cash to take him off their hands. On the other hand, the Mets (even in their current state) have the money to blow just to take a look at a player.
My hunch says that the Mets are serious about Emaus. Sandy Alderson, is serious about team building and making maximum use of all his resources. His assistant Paul Depodesta is a stats guy and has to love a player like Emaus for reasons that will soon become apparent to you. Another assistant J.P. Ricciardi ran the Blue Jays when Emaus was drafted and likely knows him better than most. I think Emaus will stick around. The question is in what role.
Here's what Emaus had to say about being picked to Baseball America:
“My agent (ACES’ Mike Zimmerman) told me this week that there was a 50-50 chance I’d be taken in the Rule 5, and right now I’m just very ecstatic, excited to be given another chance by the Mets,” Emaus said via phone from the Dominican. Asked to give Mets fans a scouting report, Emaus said, “I’m just a blue-collar guy, a solid guy who has to know the game, has to have some (baseball IQ) because I don’t have great tools. I’m not flashy but I bring my best every day and go out trying to find an edge.”Emaus spent the 2010 season playing at two levels for the Toronto Blue Jays. In Double-A, he slashed .272/.402/.434 with five homers and five steals in 170 at-bats. After being promoted to Triple-A, he hit .298/.395/.495 with ten homers and eight stolen bases. A nice season that he followed up in the Dominican Winter League (noticing a theme?) where he slashed .268/.345/.449 with one homer and two steals in 127 at-bats.
Emaus has a fantastic eye and a ton of patience at the plate. He has solid power, which is mostly double at this point but there is still room for that to turn to homer power. Right now he probably would hit 10-15 homers in a full season of at-bats with an upside of 20. He has decent not great speed but is a skilled baserunner who will steal 10-15 bases per season. He should hit for a strong batting average based on his eye and very good contact skills. His upside looks a lot like Daniel Murphy's but he also throws in a solid glove at second base. He is sure-handed but with just average range according to scouting reports.
Murphy is clearly the favorite to win the job but Emaus is a dark horse with a ton of support in upper management. Murphy has the most major league experience and his versatility makes him a decent bench option. Emaus has a better glove at second base and gets on base at a tremendous rate, he would make a very good number two hitter behind Jose Reyes and in front of the powerful middle of the Mets lineup.
Luis Castillo is so reviled that it is almost impossible for him to make the team. It is probably more likely that he is cut than he becomes the starter. Justin Turner has some flash but lacks the backing to win the job short of an outstanding spring. There is a case to be made for platooning Turner with Murphy but that is kinda hard to predict.
More Mets News
From MLB.com:
Johan Santana visited Mets medical staff in New York this week and has been cleared to begin a rehab program "which will have him throwing before the start of Spring Training," according to a team spokesman. Santana, 31, had been sidelined since undergoing September surgery to repair a torn anterior capsule in his left shoulder. His original rehab schedule called for him to begin playing catch in January, leading the spokesman to say, "It's about where we're supposed to be."Check It Out!
Though there is no concrete timetable for his return, the Mets do not expect him back until around mid-season.
Our friend Jason Collette has moved on to Baseball Prospectus (FanBall.com is leaving us soon) and the link leads to his first piece on a few underrated pitchers that fantasy owners should consider. Check it out!
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/1/6/1920032/the-mets-options-at-second-base
http://www.metsminorleagueblog.com/2011/01/12/comparison-brad-emaus-justin-turner/
http://risingapple.com/2010/05/26/mets-claim-justin-turner-from-orioles/
Thursday, January 13, 2011
2011 Sleeper: Robinson Chirinos (and the Garza Trade)
There has already been plenty of talk about the Tampa Bay Rays making the Matt Garza trade. In case you've been under a rock the deal was Matt Garza, Fernando Perez, and minor league pitcher Zachary Rosscup to the Cubs for pitcher Chris Archer, shortstop Hak-Ju Lee, outfielders Brandon Guyer and Sam Fuld, and catcher Robinson Chirinos.
I don't have much to add about Garza himself. I like him in the National League, where he should get a slight boost to his overall numbers. The change in ball parks is not ideal but moving from the AL East to the NL Central should more than make up for it. But you knew all that or at least you've read it on three million different fantasy sites.
Far more interesting to me (for fantasy purposes) are the players coming back to the Tampa Bay Rays and the roles we can project for them, especially catcher Robinson Chirinos. After laboring for years to advance as far as Double-A, Chirinos broke out in 2009 by hitting .294/.396/.519 then built on that in 2010 by hitting .326/.416/.583 with 18 homers. At catcher, anything close to those numbers in the majors would make Chirinos a fantasy stud and an MLB star.
I think we've been mislead about how important Chirinos was to this deal. The Rangers were also hard after Garza. According to Peter Gammons the Rangers tried to acquire Chirinos for the Rays to include him in a Garza deal.
The Rangers were the other team in it to the end. They thought they could get Chirinos from the Cubs, then package him with left-handed pitcher Derek Holland, reliever Frank Francisco and outfielder Engel Beltre, plus pay some of Francisco's contract. Friedman sees everything in the long term, and he thought that in 2012 and '13 -- when Jeremy Hellickson, David Price and Archer could be an extremely formidable front three -- the Rays would have a better chance to keep their window open.The Rangers players plus Chirinos would have been a much better package in the short term as far as keeping their place atop the AL-East. That the Rangers wanted to acquire Chirinos for them indicates how important he was to the deal from the Rays perspective.
Fantasy owners should keep a close eye on Chirinos during Spring Training. I believe he has an excellent chance of making the team as a utility player if not as a back-up catcher. He has a reputation as a great glove in the infield and at catcher. The Rays definitely see something in Chirinos and a productive player (even a part-time one) who qualifies at catcher is fantasy gold. That's much more significant to fantasy owners than another rookie pitcher on a team loaded with quality arms.
The rest of the deal...
Chris Archer has been discussed a ton as the consensus best prospect in the deal. He was in the top three Cubs prospects by almost every source and for many was number one. He has great stuff and his ceiling is as a front line starter. However, until he improves his control his chances of emerging as more than a quality innings eater are minimal. Though he was at the top of the charts in the Cubs deep system, he is just one of several very good pitching prospects for the Rays. He needs improved control to separate himself from the pack, to his credit his control has improved two straight seasons. He is essentially ready to fill that innings eating role now and could make his major league debut this season.
Outfielder Sam Fuld is an ideal fourth outfielder. He is a solid defender at all three outfield positions and at the plate shows patience and the ability to draw walks. He doesn't have much power but can steal bases. He is much like a more durable and experienced Fernando Perez. Stat guys should love Fuld since he is a stat guy at heart as well. He is a Stanford graduate who majored in statistics and interned at Stats, Inc. Our kind of guy.
Hak-Ju Lee is a few years away but is a very interesting prospect. Keith Law of ESPN likes him more than most and had him ranked first in the Cubs system. He is a very good defensive shortstop with above average speed on the bases. He doesn't have much power and though some believe he will develop some, power is not likely to be a major fantasy asset of Lee's.
Brandon Guyer is an average defensive center fielder with nice speed. He had a very good 2010 season hitting .344/.398/.588 in Double-A with 13 homers, 76 runs, 58 rbi, and 30 stolen bases in 410 plate appearances. He looks like a nice starting option if one of the outfield primaries needs extended time off due to injury.
Other Articles on Robinson Chirinos and the Garza Trade that you may enjoy.
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http://www.espn1040.com/includes/blog/index.php?action=blog&blog_id=12&post_id=1430
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110107&content_id=16408630&vkey=perspectives&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb
http://theprocessreport.com/2011/01/07/report-tampa-bay-rays-set-to-trade-matt-garza-to-chicago-cubs/
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110107&content_id=16408870&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb&tcid=tw_article_16408870
http://dockoftherays.com/2011/01/09/archer-interviewed-on-minors-and-majors/
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/sam-fuld-fascinating-4th-of/