Difference Makers

I've been away from the keyboard lately but I haven't lost interest in my fantasy teams. In fact in my 12 team H2H keeper, my squad (Donkey Punch!) has come on strong in recent weeks and has clawed its way back into contention with only four days left in the regular season. In what's the tightest finish that I've seen in this league, 3 1/2 games separate the top five teams (top six make the playoffs) and a half game currently separating the top three! With my transactions nearly maxed out and numerous players (Nick Swisher, Angel Pagan and Jim Thome) suffering from day-to-day injuries, I have to chose my moves very wisely. The regular season winner gets a prize and the top two get a bye for the first round of the playoffs but I can't leave myself without options for the playoffs, so I'll have to stand pat this week.

With that said, fantasy players know that campaigns are not won in the early rounds of a draft. In fact, sometimes the season is won from the waiver wires, as the season winds down to its end. So who are some of the position players who could be difference makers as we head down the stretch?

Neil Walker, 2B, Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates second baseman Neil Walker has been one of the hottest hitters in the game lately. After five inauspicious seasons in the minors, it seems like the former first round pick seems to finally putting it all together at the age of 24. In the last two weeks, Walker has been absolutely raking, going 20/54 with 4 HR/9R/15RBI/.370 BA/.384 OBP. With a BABIP of .366 in his 342 PA with the big club, it's not likely that those numbers will last, but fantasy owners may as well enjoy the ride while it lasts. Owned in only 28% of Yahoo leagues, there's no reason why Walker shouldn't be helping more teams make their playoff push.

Freddy Sanchez, 2B, San Francisco Giants

You know what you're going to get out of a healthy Freddy Sanchez - batting average. While the veteran second baseman hasn't disappointed lately in the 17% of Yahoo leagues where he's rostered, he's also scored a lot of runs for the Giants, in their quest to overcome the faltering Padres out West. Sanchez has been slapping balls all over the place in the last two weeks, banging out a 11 R/1 HR/6 RBI/.481 BA/.491 OBP line. Of course he doesn't hit for much pop and is made of glass, but steady Freddy can be the difference between you winning or losing in batting average this week.

Roger Bernadina, OF, Washington Nationals

With the Nationals losing Josh Willingham for the season and Nyjer Morgan facing a suspension for hulking out last night, Roger Bernadina's sure to see every day reps in the D.C. outfield. The 26 year old has enjoyed surprising success in his first significant Major League playing time, showing solid power to go along with his base-stealing prowess. He was sitting against lefties, but I think he'll see steadier time from here on out. I'll refer back to a piece I wrote in June about Bernadina and add that he's definitely rosterable in 12-team mixed leagues now, in spite of the 96% of Yahoo leagues where he's not rostered. Over the last two weeks he's been the 27th most valuable player in my 6x6 format with 11 R/3 HR/ 9 RBI/ 4 SB/.268 BA/.311 OBP. He won't hit for great average but he should continue to deliver plenty of slam and legs at a time when cheap power/speed combinations are hard to come by.

Daric Barton, 1B, Oakland Athletics

Daric Barton has always been know for his patience at the plate. Now it seems like the Oakland Athletics first baseman has suddenly decided to get the bat off of his shoulders. Coming into action today, Barton has swung a hot stick, bashing out a line of 11 R/3 HR/7 RBI/2 SB/.425 BA/.586 OBP in the last two weeks. Of course his hot hitting could cool off at any time, but Barton gets on base and if that's what you need, he could be an asset if you're thin at corner infield. As hot as he's been, Barton is only owned in 9% of Yahoo leagues so there's a good chance he's around to lend a hand.

Martin Prado: Best Hitter in the National League?

I found something odd inside last week's Baseball America. On page 15 they printed the results of their survey of major league managers of the best tools in baseball. Most of it was fairly predictable. The best National League baserunners were Michael Bourn, Nyjer Morgan and Andrew McCutchen. The most exciting players in the American League were Carl Crawford, Josh Hamilton and Ichiro Suzuki. And the best hitters in the National League were Albert Pujols, Joey Votto and Martin Prado. Say what, now? Martin Prado?

It's true that Martin Prado has been extremely good over the last couple of years. First as a utility player and finally as the full-time second baseman. Dave Cameron of FanGraphs.com had good things to say about him during his Trade Value series of articles in which Prado ranked at number 47.

The ultimate performance over tools guy in the big leagues right now, Prado’s success is a testament to how pedigree doesn’t mean everything. This is a guy who hit 15 home runs in 2,119 minor league plate appearances, and was simply not considered much of a prospect when he got to the big leagues. However, for the last three years, he’s been one of the best second baseman in baseball, adding some power to his already good contact rates and turning himself into a legitimate All-Star this season. He’s headed for his prime years as an already good player, and the Braves have him under control for three more seasons. He might be the most unexpected guy on this list, but he’s earned his spot here.

By wOBA, Prado comes in an impressive seventh among second basemen this season with an extremely solid .368 score. He ranks 22nd in wOBA in the National League, which is impressive for a player that was not expected to become an offensive force.

At the time of this posting, Prado held a slash of .317/.360/.488 with 15 homeruns, 89 runs scored, and 58 RBI in 498 at-bats. Although his walk rate is unimpressive at just 6.4 percent, he has shown incredible patience at the plate. He swings at far fewer pitchers than most major league hitters both in and out of the strike zone. He also makes far greater contact. He is definitely a skilled hitter. The key to his transformation seems to be his steadily increasing power. The last three seasons have seen his ISO go from .140 to .158 to .171 this season.

Although most leagues do not bother with defense, I thought it would be interesting to see how he has been with the glove. The answer is pretty good overall. He's been excellent at third base just passing at second base but showing some improvement. I think this helps us call him a pretty good third baseman and a very good second baseman.

Unfortunately, the major league managers seem to have elevated him a bit past his true skills as a hitter. He is definitely a player worth watching for fantasy purposes. At 27-years old with experience we may see him take another step up and into the true tier of best hitters in the National League. But for now I would still place players like Albert Pujols, Joey Votto, Matt Holliday, Ryan Zimmerman and Hanley Ramirez in a class above him.

How has Martin Prado helped in your quests for gold. Are you ready to label him one of the best hitters in the National League? Let's hear about it in the comments section.

Jeff Francouer Traded to Texas Rangers

From The Newberg Report:

Texas has officially traded Joaquin Arias for Jeff Francouer, receiving cash in the deal from the Mets (reportedly so that Texas pays Francouer what it would have paid Arias the rest of the way), and have designated outfielder Brandon Boggs for assignment to make room on the 40-man roster for Francouer.

The Rangers have 10 days to trade Boggs, release him, or outright him to the minor leagues.

Interesting.

Joaquin Arias has some fantasy potential if he can find at-bats. He has the speed to steal 30 bases. He isn't likely to hit for much power but in a full season of at-bats he could hit 10 homers. He swings at too many pitches but he makes good contact on balls out of the strike zone. His defense at second base needs some work but he has the potential to be a good one. He turns 27-years old at the end of September, so he could still step it up a level or two.

If Jeff Francouer could just stop swinging at every pitch he sees he might be able to regain some of the potential he showed as a young Braves prospect. He has good power and speed, but his lack of discipline holds him back. The good news is the Rangers are one of the teams with the quality of coaching to get him turned in the right direction again. For now though, he should be avoided.

2010 Arizona Fall League Rosters

2010 Mesa Solar Sox

Organizational Affiliations: Angels, Cubs, Mets, Phillies, Pirates

Home Games: Hohokam Park, Mesa

Manager: Casey Kopitzke (CHC) As of August 31, 2010

Pitching Coach: Ricky Bones (NYM)

Hitting Coach: Mark Parent (PHI)

Trainers: Bryan Housand (PIT)

Brian Reinker (LAA)

Pitchers

Ryan Brasier LAA
Tyson Brummett PHI
David Cales CHC
Chris Carpenter CHC
Robert Carson NYM
Justin De Fratus PHI
Robert Fish LAA
Stephen Geltz LAA
Chris Kissock PHI
Eddie McKiernan LAA
Jake Muyco CHC
B.J. Rosenberg PHI
Kyle Smit CHC
Josh Stinson NYM
Josh Zeid PHI

The Mets and Pirates have additional pitching spots to fill.

Catchers

Kai Gronauer NYM
Tim Kennelly PHI
Tony Sanchez PIT

Infielders

Ryan Flaherty CHC
Josh Harrison PIT
Jordy Mercer PIT
Matt Rizzotti PHI
Andrew Romine LAA
Jordany Valdespin NYM
Josh Vitters CHC
Brandon Wood LAA

Outfielders

Brett Jackson CHC
Andrew Lambo PIT
Jeremy Moore LAA

The Mets and Phillies will each provide another outfielder.

2010 Peoria Javelinas

Organizational Affiliations: Astros, Blue Jays, Indians, Mariners, Red Sox

Home Games: Peoria Sports Complex

Manager: Mike Sarbaugh (CLE) As of August 31, 2010

Pitching Coach: Kevin Walker (BOS)

Hitting Coach: Stubby Clapp (HOU)

Trainers: Eddie Tamez (SEA)

Bob Tarpey (TOR)

Pitchers

Scott Barnes CLE
Eric Berger CLE
Maikel Cleto SEA
Matt Daly TOR
Alana Farina TOR
Dan Farquhar TOR
Josh Fields SEA
Seth Garrison BOS
Kyle Greenwalt HOU
Josh Lueke SEA
Chen-Chang Lee CLE
Matt Nevarez HOU
Sergio Perez HOU
Jason Rice BOS
Dan Turpen BOS
Patrick Urckfitz HOU
Thomas Wilhelmsen SEA

The Red Sox Indians and Blue Jays will each provide another pitcher.

Catchers

Ryan Lavarnway BOS

The Indians will provide another catcher.

Infielders

Dustin Ackley SEA
Koby Clemens HOU
Adeiny Hechavarria TOR
Jose Iglesias BOS
Jason Kipnis CLE
Matt Mangini SEA
Mike McDade TOR
Cord Phelps CLE

Outfielders

Juan Carlos Linares BOS
T.J. Steele HOU
J.B. Shuck HOU
Eric Thames TOR
Nate Tenbrink SEA

2010 Peoria Saguaros

Organizational Affiliations: Padres, Rays, Reds, Twins, White Sox

Home Games: Peoria Sports Complex

Manager: Ted Simmons (SD) As of August 31, 2010

Pitching Coach: Richard Dotson (CWS)

Hitting Coach: Floyd Rayford (MN)

Trainers: Jimmy Mattocks (CIN)

Lee Slagle (TB)

Pitchers

James Avery CIN
Brad Brach SD
David Bromberg MIN
Anthony Carter CWS
Alex Cobb TB
Sergio Espinosa TB
Steve Garrison SD
Carlos Gutierrez MIN
Jeremy Hall TB
Jeremy Horst CIN
Craig Italiano SD
Charles Leesman CWS
Johnnie Lowe CWS
Cory Luebke SD
Henry Mabee CWS
Tyler Robertson MIN
Neil Schenk TB
Phillippe Valiquette CIN
Kyle Waldrop MIN

The Reds will provide another pitcher.

Catchers

Luis Martinez SD
Devin Mesoraco CIN
Josh Phegley CWS

Infielders

Eduardo Escobar CWS
Cole Figueroa SD
Logan Forsythe SD
Kristopher Negron CIN
Chris Parmelee MIN
Jose Ruiz TB
Henry Wrigley TB

Outfielders

Leslie Anderson TB
Joe Benson MIN
Jared Mitchell CWS
Ben Revere MIN
Dave Sappelt CIN

2010 Phoenix Desert Dogs

Organizational Affiliations: Athletics, Braves, Dodgers, Marlins, Yankees

Home Games: Phoenix Municipal Stadium

Manager: Don Mattingly (LAD) As of August 31, 2010

Pitching Coach: Garvin Alston (OAK)

Hitting Coach: Jamie Dismuke (ATL)

Trainers: Scott Difrancesco (NYY)

Julio Hernandez (FLA)

Pitching Assistant: Danny Borrell (NYY)

Pitchers

Pete Andrelczyk FLA
Travis Banwart OAK
Brandon Beachy ATL
Mike Benacka OAK
Michael Broadway ATL
Jay Buente FLA
Steve Cishek FLA
Kyle Cofield ATL
Erik Cordier ATL
Javy Guerra LAD
Carlos Hernandez OAK
Craig Heyer NYY
Justin James OAK
George Kontos NYY
Jon Link LAD
Justin Miller LAD
Brad Stone FLA

The Yankees and Dodgers will provide additional pitchers.

Catchers

Austin Romine NYY
Kyle Skipworth FLA
Matt Wallach LAD

Infielders

Ryan Curry FLA
Ivan De Jesus LAD
Freddie Freeman ATL
Grant Green OAK
Corban Joseph NYY
Osvaldo Martinez FLA
Stephen Parker OAK
Tyler Pastornicky ATL
Jerry Sands LAD

Outfielders

Cory Harrilchak ATL
Brandon, Laird NYY
Trayvon Robinson LAD
Michael Taylor OAK

2010 Scottsdale Scorpions

Organizational Affiliations: Diamondbacks, Giants, Nationals, Orioles, Rockies

Home Games: Scottsdale Stadium

Manager: Randy Knorr (WAS) As of August 31, 2010

Pitching Coach: Blaine Beatty (BAL)

Hitting Coach: Alan Zinter (ARI)

Trainers: Chris Dovey (COL)

Eric Ortega (SF)

Pitchers

Bruce Billings COL
Rex Brothers COL
Adam Carr WAS
Josh Collmenter ARZ
Oliver Drake BAL
Pat Egan BAL
Adam Jorgenson COL
Cole Kimball WAS
Kam Mickolio BAL
Wynn Pelzer BAL
Greg Reynolds COL
Bryan Shaw ARI
Sammy Solis WAS
Dan Stange ARI
Bryan Woodall ARI

The Giants and Nationals will provide additional pitchers.

Catchers

Caleb Joseph BAL
Derek Norris WAS
Jordan Pacheco COL
Konrad Schmidt ARI

Infielders

Ryan Adams BAL
Brandon Belt SF
Charlie Culberson SF
Thomas Field COL
Conor Gillaspie SF
Steve Lombardozzi WAS
Greg Miclat BAL
Ty Townsend BAL

Outfielders

Charlie Blackmon COL
Mike Burgess WAS
Marc Krauss ARI
A.J. Pollock ARI

The Orioles will provide another outfielder.

2010 Surprise Rafters

Organizational Affiliations: Brewers, Cardinals, Rangers, Royals, Tigers

Home Games: Surprise Stadium

Manager: Mike Guerrero (MIL) As of August 31, 2010

Pitching Coach: Brad Holman (TEX)

Pitching Assistant: Ray Burris (DET)

Hitting Coach: Derrick May (STL)

Trainers: Dave Iannicca (KC)

Corey Tremble (DET)

Pitchers

Brian Broderick STL
Brooks Brown DET
Danny Duffy KC
Michael Fiers MIL
Adalberto Flores TEX
Danny Gutierrez TEX
Matt Hoffman DET
Eric Hurley TEX
Jeremy Jeffress MIL
Patrick Keating KC
Blake King STL
Brandon Kintzler MIL
Lucas Luetge MIL
Mike McClendon MIL
Dan Merklinger MIL
Mike Montgomery KC
Tim Murphy TEX
Chance Ruffin DET
Brendan Wise DET

The Cardinals and Royals will provide additional pitchers.

Catchers

Tony Cruz STL
Jose Felix TEX
Salvador Perez KC

Infielders

Eric Farris MIL
Johnny Giavotella KC
Eric Hosmer KC
Cale Iorg DET
Pete Kozma STL
Brett Lawrie MIL
Francisco Martinez DET
Davis Stoneburner TEX
Ryan Strieby DET

The Cardinals will provide an additional infielder.

Outfielders

Engle Beltre TEX
Joey Butler TEX
Adron Chambers STL
Derrick Robinson KC
Logan Schafer MIL

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100831&content_id=14142872&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb&partnerId=rss_mlb

September Will Not Be Boring with Manny in Chicago

Manny Ramirez and Ozzie Guillen in the same clubhouse.

Kenny Williams has serious guts. The guy who exists in his own little world and the guy with no control of his mouth, together at last. Can you imagine the battle of wills that develops if Ozzie has a problem with Manny say loafing in the outfield or taking a day off to rest an injury to a part of his body he can't quite recall? Oh, you think Manny will be happy to DH? He once had a problem with moving to left field from right field. He has also stated his distaste for the idea of DHing. This should be a ton of fun to watch.

I would not expect Manny to hit like he did in his first month with the Los Angeles Dodgers but he should be a positive in the lineup as long as he's happy. If he's productive Ozzie will probably go out of his way to keep him happy. If he slumps that's when "things" will escalate. Either way, assuming that Manny takes Mark Kotsay's place in the lineup, he should help the White Sox as they chase the Twins.

In the last seven days he hit .286/.444/.571 in just seven at-bats as the Dodgers have refused to start him. For the season he has a slash of .311/.405/.510 with 8 homeruns and 40 RBI in just 196 at-bats (.392 wOBA). He has been hitting more groundballs than he typically does and his 14 percent HR/FB rate is far below his career rate of 21.2 percent which explains his disappointing power output.

Manny's walk and strikeout rates are around his career numbers but his plate discipline is not at its usual level. He is swinging at more itches out of the strike zone. His contact rates are steady but obviously it is changing the results.

If fantasy owners are still looking for a bat to add to their lineups, this is probably as good as it will get. He should hit for average with decent power, even if that is far below his career power rates. The White Sox have something to fight for and that tends to bring out the best in Manny.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=2974

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=210&position=OF

Fuentes to Twins, Rodney to Close, Walden the Future?

The Los Angeles Angels have sent left-handed closer Brian Fuentes to the Minnesota Twins for a player to be named later. Fernando Rodney will assume the closer role for the Angels. Fuentes will see some save chances for the Twins but as their sole healthy left-hander, Fuentes will often be used in platoon situations.

From MLB.com

"He'll be setup and probably occasionally close if I use [Matt Capps] too much," Gardenhire said. "He gets lefties out pretty [darn] good, plus he can close, too, another very, very good arm out in the bullpen with experience. He should help us out."

The Angels insist that trading Fuentes does not indicate they are giving up on the season. They're right, it doesn't. But it is a good move for a team with little chance of winning and a bullpen loaded with younger and superior talent. It also helps that the Angels are expecting a very good player in return.

From MLB.com

Angels general manager Tony Reagins said the club will "soon" receive a "prospect with upside" as part of the trade and thanked Fuentes for his two seasons with the club. It's still unknown how much of Fuentes' salary will be picked up by the Twins, as there is $1.89 million left on his contract this season.

Reagins and Angels manager Mike Scioscia said the move doesn't indicate they are giving up on this season and building for next season, as veteran reliever Fernando Rodney will serve as the club's closer the rest of the season, and young relievers Michael Kohn and Jordan Walden have impressed so far.

Walden, who has received a lot of attention lately for his gun-busting fastball, is a future closer candidate. He has awesome stuff but failed to develop as a starter. He is now considered a full time relief pitcher by the Angels. According to the Los Angeles Times, Jordan Walden has reached as high as 102 mph with his fastball.

From GazetteOnline.com

“These guys are just cutting their baby teeth right now,” Scioscia said. “They’re taking baby steps, but I think they’ve shown great poise on the mound for youngsters coming up. Becoming a Major League pitcher is a process and this is the first steps of it, but they’ve certainly taking that step and meeting the challenge head-on.”

Fantasy owners should hang on to Brian Fuentes if they are still in need of saves. Fuentes may not get many but his overall numbers should improve as he becomes more of a platoon specialist. Fernando Rodney may be available in shallower leagues and is worth picking up for those in need of saves. Rodney is also the likely closer to start the 2011 season as well. Jordan Walden has a bright future in the Angels bullpen and I see him becoming the full-time closer in 2012. He is an excellent speculation pick for those in re-building mode.

Stephen Strasburg Needs Tommy John Surgery

The Washington Nationals are getting a second opinion but they have announced that Stephen Strasburg has a significant tear to ligaments in his elbow and will likely require Tommy John Surgery. He will certainly miss the rest of this season and likely most of 2011 as well. This is bad news, not just to fantasy baseball fans, but also to Major League Baseball.

Strasburg was one of the few personalities in the game that could draw sell-out crowds to the park. He was and still is a huge part of the Washington Nationals future. TJS is not a death sentence for pitchers. Josh Johnson, Francisco Liriano and Tim Hudson are just a few examples of the major talents that have recovered and thrived after the procedure. Some pitchers have even claimed to be stronger than they ever were before. Typically those undergoing TJS are out of action for a year and need most of a season of pitching again to regain their top level of performance. But not always.

Those in typical keeper leagues that allow you to keep a player for three seasons without signing him long term are probably screwed unless they have incredible faith. Faith both in Stephen Strasburg's eventual return and their ability to draft a winning team short his cost and roster spot. While he should return in 2012 (maybe even the end of 2011) betting on an immediate return to top quality is unwise.