Down the Stretch: The Top First Basemen of 2010

Justin Morneau comes in the winner despite injuries ruining his second half. This list is riddled with injuries, though. Morneau, Kevin Youkilis, Ryan Howard, and Kendry Morales all suffered major injuries. I'll spare you re-living the slow starts of Mark Teixeira and Derrek Lee...

Name	Team	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	BABIP	wOBA
Justin Morneau	Twins	14.40%	20.90%	0.345	0.437	0.618	0.274	0.385	0.447
Miguel Cabrera	Tigers	14.20%	17.30%	0.337	0.431	0.629	0.292	0.351	0.439
Joey Votto	Reds	14.10%	22.50%	0.324	0.423	0.593	0.27	0.359	0.436
Kevin Youkilis	Red Sox	13.30%	18.50%	0.307	0.411	0.564	0.257	0.327	0.419
Albert Pujols	Cardinals	14.00%	12.30%	0.315	0.41	0.591	0.276	0.3	0.417
Paul Konerko	White Sox	11.40%	20.10%	0.301	0.381	0.575	0.274	0.308	0.404
Aubrey Huff	Giants	12.30%	13.90%	0.292	0.384	0.519	0.226	0.296	0.391
Adam Dunn	Nationals	10.40%	34.60%	0.269	0.355	0.565	0.297	0.333	0.389
Prince Fielder	Brewers	14.80%	25.90%	0.266	0.402	0.483	0.217	0.304	0.388
Buster Posey	Giants	6.40%	12.10%	0.34	0.388	0.516	0.176	0.356	0.388
Ryan Howard	Phillies	7.50%	26.30%	0.292	0.356	0.528	0.236	0.343	0.377
Adrian Gonzalez	Padres	12.50%	19.90%	0.295	0.385	0.5	0.205	0.322	0.373
Mark Teixeira	Yankees	12.80%	19.40%	0.252	0.358	0.483	0.232	0.258	0.366
Billy Butler	Royals	10.20%	12.70%	0.309	0.379	0.461	0.152	0.329	0.365
Adam LaRoche	Dbacks	8.70%	29.60%	0.272	0.339	0.489	0.217	0.339	0.357
Jason Giambi	Rockies	16.90%	23.30%	0.271	0.407	0.391	0.12	0.317	0.357
Kendry Morales	Angels	5.70%	16.10%	0.29	0.346	0.487	0.197	0.296	0.357
Gaby Sanchez	Marlins	8.60%	17.30%	0.287	0.352	0.453	0.166	0.324	0.356
Russell Branyan	- - -	11.30%	33.10%	0.241	0.331	0.468	0.227	0.298	0.347
Daric Barton	Athletics	14.20%	18.30%	0.27	0.379	0.39	0.12	0.317	0.346
Mike Napoli	Angels	6.80%	28.60%	0.254	0.322	0.478	0.224	0.297	0.345
Lance Berkman	- - -	16.20%	22.60%	0.237	0.361	0.418	0.181	0.27	0.345
Eric Hinske	Braves	10.50%	26.60%	0.258	0.338	0.464	0.206	0.309	0.343
Carlos Pena	Rays	14.40%	31.30%	0.213	0.334	0.44	0.227	0.237	0.343
Ty Wigginton	Orioles	8.40%	19.00%	0.257	0.328	0.439	0.183	0.274	0.333
Troy Glaus	Braves	13.10%	23.90%	0.239	0.343	0.406	0.166	0.272	0.333
Michael Cuddyer	Twins	9.40%	15.00%	0.272	0.341	0.424	0.152	0.298	0.333
Derrek Lee	Cubs	10.90%	24.20%	0.251	0.335	0.416	0.165	0.293	0.33
James Loney	Dodgers	7.30%	15.70%	0.285	0.339	0.416	0.131	0.321	0.328
Melvin Mora	Rockies	9.50%	12.20%	0.268	0.351	0.38	0.112	0.294	0.327
Lyle Overbay	Blue Jays	10.30%	23.80%	0.248	0.328	0.417	0.17	0.294	0.325
Rusty Ryal	Dbacks	4.70%	29.50%	0.288	0.347	0.391	0.103	0.393	0.325
Ike Davis	Mets	10.20%	28.10%	0.243	0.321	0.42	0.176	0.297	0.325
Garrett Jones	Pirates	8.30%	19.60%	0.257	0.317	0.426	0.169	0.28	0.324
Jorge Cantu	- - -	5.80%	20.40%	0.265	0.314	0.405	0.14	0.305	0.315

Derrek Lee to the Braves

Twitter and the blogosphere are buzzing -- Derrek Lee is going to be an Atlanta Brave within hours. According to Dave O'Brien's blog on ajc.com, the deal is expected to involve "some lower tier minor league prospects."

So, let's see how this deal will potentially shake out for fantasy owners.

It's easy to see where Lee fits in with the Braves. He will immediately step in as the everyday first baseman. He has been killing the ball lately -- in August, he has posted a .306 average and has slugged .694 -- giving the Braves what the desperately need (with or without Chipper), a power bat in the middle of the lineup. The question is Lee's health. He is dealing with a nagging back injury -- one that seems to have been nagging him for a few years now. The only other "bad" thing I see about this deal are Lee's career numbers at Turner Field, where he has only hit 8 homers and slugged just .388 in 66 games (his career SLG is .499).

This trade also spells the end of any of Troy Glaus' fantasy value. From everything I have read and heard, Glaus is heading to the bench while Martin Prado, Omar Infante and Alex Gonzalez see regular infield time. As you Glaus owners know, this is a good thing for the Braves. He definitely gives credence to the old saying: "one month does not a season make" (who said that? Confucius? Yoda?)

If my sources are correct, and no Major League-ready players are headed to Chicago, it definitely muddles their lineup. The safest call would be that Xavier Nady takes over the first base duties
-- and considering he only has 175 ABs this season, I would call him fresh. He's going to need to be plenty fresh to raise his .234 average.

I would also venture a guess that Jeff Baker will also see more extended playing time. The former Rockies prospect has played first base 49 times in his six-year Major League career. He did show some promise back in 2008, and this trade may be just the chance he needed to make a real contribution. Of course, he is only batting .236 in 157 ABs this season. Both Baker and Nady are right-handed batters, so a straight platoon would be tough to predict.

Once the trade is finalized and announced, I'm sure Jon can shed some light on the prospects involved. Check the comments section. --Pauly

Bryce Harper Signs with the Nationals

Even if you aren't a fan of the Washington Nationals, you have to appreciate the stellar performance of General Manager Mike Rizzo. Over the past year, Rizzo and the Nationals management have been adding some of the very best baseball people in the game. Together they have turned the Washington Nationals from the joke they were as the Montreal Expos into a team destined to be a power in the sport.

Late last night, Mike Rizzo and the Nationals did what Jim Bowden never could, for the second year in a row. They signed the first overall pick in the draft, a Scott Boras client, to a record setting contract. Again, It was the second year in a row. Now it may not seem like a good thing that an organization was so bad that they received the prize reserved for the very worse. But it is when you consider the depths that the Nationals have risen from.

The Expos had been stripped of all resources. The prospects had been traded off in a last ditch effort to win. The staff and all its scouting reports and equipment was all taken to Florida when the Jeff Loria ownership group with the approval of MLB screwed them. The went years without a real budget. They did everything on a shoestring until the new ownership finally took over. Meanwhile Jim Bowden had failed to make good use of the resources he did have. Instead, he did the same thing he always did, he collected toolsy but skill less outfielders, and did his best to reassemble the Reds team he once failed to turn into a winner.

Now the Nats have a farm system loaded with young but advancing talent. They have a small but strong core of young players in the majors. And they have a front office that can deliver the goods and an ownership group ready to do what it takes to build a winner. They proved that when they approved a $9.9 million deal to bring the talented 17-year old Bryce Harper into the organization.

Bryce Harper has been called baseball's LeBron [James]. Though that is not quite the compliment it used to be after the Event. He has been the star of his high school, summer tournaments, and most recently at the College of Southern Nevada. He has graced the cover of Sports Illustrated twice and I'm predicting a third appearance next week.

He has a rocket for a throwing arm and apparently would have been a fine defensive catcher eventually, depending on whose word you trust most. However in an effort to get Harper into the middle of the Nationals lineup as soon as possible, he will be moved to the outfield.

What's next for Bryce Harper and how soon until he joins Stephen Strasburg in the majors?

The Nationals believe that Harper is a middle-of-the-lineup hitter of the highest potential. His power is at the top of the scale and he has ever tool you could hope to see in a baseball prospect. But this isn't just a good prospect. Harper is one of the special ones. The opinions on him are nearly unanimous that he will hit and hit for power. He has worked at it for his entire life. It is only a slight exaggeration (if it is at all) to say that it would be more surprising to see him fail than to become a productive major league player.

2011 Sleeper Candidate: Felix Pie OF Baltimore Orioles

One of my many bad habits is falling in love (in a macho, manly sorta way) with certain players. Years ago now I fell for Felix Pie and he's starting to love me back. It is interesting that I was also once enamored with Corey Patterson who is also showing signs of life with the Baltimore Orioles.

Pie and Patterson both came up through the Chicago Cubs system. They both left as disappointments. But at least in the case of Felix Pie, that conclusion was probably premature. The Cubs never really gave Felix Pie an extended opportunity to become accustomed to the majors. He was constantly being pulled in and out of the lineup, up and down from the minors, and suffering from an assortment of injuries. He never received more than 194 plate appearances with the Cubs and even those came haphazardly spread out across the 2007 season.

In January 2009, Pie was traded by the Cubs to the Baltimore Orioles for Hank Williamson and Garrett Olson. Although the trade seemed to signal an ending of sorts for Felix Pie it was likely the best thing for his career. It is easy to blame the Cubs for mishandling Pie as a prospect, they done that quite a bit. However, teams in contention, or in the case of the Cubs, in constant desperation to be in contention, needs players to perform or get out of the way. It is the same reason that so many Yankee prospects see more success on other teams.

Last season the Orioles allowed Pie to spend the entire season in the major leagues. He received a career high 252 at-bats and showed signs of the player he has the potential to become. He achieved his major league best walk rate (8.5 percent) and ISO (.171) and improved plate discipline. That led to his opportunity in Spring Training. He beat out the power hitting Nolan Reimold and began this season on fire. Then he got hurt and was out of the lineup for months.

The good news is that upon his return to the majors, especially since the hiring of Buck Showalter as the Orioles manager, Pie is again on fire. As of this writing, Pie has hit safely in 12 of his last 13 games, batting .392 and showing power and speed on the bases and real effort on defense. In such a small sample size it is difficult to know whether Pie has continued his development or has just experienced a couple of nice hot streaks. However taken together with the evidence of progress during the 2009 season, it looks pretty good.

Fantasy owners should definitely have Pie back on their radar. He had incredible tools and the potential to become a 30/30 type player. At just 25-years old Pie could still be a star in the major leagues. He is with a team that has nothing to lose by giving him that opportunity.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/F%C3%A9lix_Pie

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/piefe01.shtml#trans

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3751&position=OF

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2011 Sleeper Candidate: Kyle McClellan RHP St. Louis Cardinals

Kyle McClellan has come a long way since being drafted in the 25th round of the 2003 Amateur Draft. On July 1st, 2005, McClellan tore a ligament in his elbow during a spot start. This was after being moved to the bullpen because of earlier struggles in the Single-A, Quad City Swing rotation. Most of the 2006 season was spent rehabbing but after returning for just three appearances he needed a second procedure on the elbow.

McClellan was moved to the bullpen when he returned to protect the elbow. He excelled pitching in the Florida State League for Palm Beach. In 29 innings, McClellan had a 1.24 ERA, struck out 24 to just four walks. Promoted to Springfield, he pitched 30.2 innings with 30 strikeouts and only six walks. In 59.2 innings he allowed only two home runs.He was added to the 40-man roster and has been an effective major league reliever ever since.

Three years of solid performance in the Cardinal Bullpen has helped acclimate McClellan to pitching in the Major Leagues. The team has considered moving him into the rotation several times but the lack of experienced options in the bullpen has stymied the effort.

McClellan pitched well as a starter in 2010 Spring Training but the role of fifth starter was given to Jamie Garcia. In part, because Garcia pitched better, but also because the Cardinals needed a reliable set-up man to deliver late-inning leads to closer Ryan Franklin. According to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, McClellan excelled in high leverage situations.

The website Baseball-Reference.com tracks the "leverage" appearances for players, defining a high-leverage situation as one where the game is in peril, such as a tie game with a runner on third and fewer than two outs. Of the 250 plate appearances against Franklin last season, 126 were in high-leverage situations. McClellan pitched in the eighth inning 29 times last season, five fewer than [Jason] Motte. But McClellan has 111 plate appearances against in high-leverage situations vs. Motte's 139 plate appearances that had low leverage.

If something happened to Ryan Franklin, Cardinals manager Tony LaRussa would not hesitate to install McClellan into the closer role. That alone should keep McClellan on the fantasy radar. But with Cardinals looking short a couple of starters for next season, you have to at least consider McClellan a major candidate. With a decent strikeout rate, a variety of solid major league pitches including a groundball-inducing sinker, and very good control McClellan has the tools and skills to succeed. Now, he isn't likely to become the next Josh Johnson or Johan Santana but he just might do a passable C.J. Wilson which is pretty darn good. What makes him an even awesomer (yeah, I made it up) sleeper is you can get him for practically nothing right now. At worst you've picked up a set-up guy that is next in line for saves.

Hot Prospect: Lorenzo Cain OF Milwaukee Brewers

With Carlos Gomez placed on the disabled list with a concussion and Jim Edmonds traded to the Cincinnati Reds, the Milwaukee Brewers have re-called Lorenzo Cain to man center field. Because many Brewer fans have come to loath Gomez for his lack of plate discipline and production, Cain has been elevated to savior-status. Fantasy owners must ask if the former 17th round pick has earned it.

Cain was drafted by the Brewers with the 496th overall pick during the 2004 amateur draft out of Madison County, Florida. He was drafted for his raw tools and still requires polish on his plate skills. That sounds like Carlos Gomez but Gomez is like a jack hammer as Cain is to a hammer. But tools are only useful when you know how to use them. This is where Cain has developed a slight advantage.

Cain has shown the ability to exercise patience and draw walks. Unfortunately, he is still very raw at the plate. He has very little power and it would be surprising if he exceeded single digit homer totals on a regular basis. However, his speed is very good which helps him on defense and in stealing bases. Although he is having a strong season, it is very BABIP driven. A speedster like Cain who hits the ball on the ground can often maintain high BABIPs, but Cain still strikes out too often to hit for consistently high averages. Still, a player that can hit for a decent average and on-base percentage and steals bases would seem useful in the eyes of most fantasy owners.

Unfortunately the last two seasons have seen the Brewers give their basestealers the red light. Since being 11th in team stolen bases in 2008 the Brewers finished 28th in 2009 and are presently 21st in MLB. Given the red light, Cain becomes nearly useless as a fantasy player and would contribute very little to a team's offense in all but the deepest of leagues. That still leaves him slightly ahead of Carlos Gomez, despite his superior tools.

Mr. Yunesky Maya Goes to Washington

After his work visa is worked out the Washington Nationals will officially sign Cuban right-hander Yunesky Maya. This is a huge step for the Nationals as an organization. You can see some of the advance work they did to get this done with both Livan Hernandez and Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez in the organization. Maya should be made to feel comfortable right away.

If you are wondering why Maya seems familiar it is because you've seen him in both World Baseball Classics pitching for the Cuban entry. He was one of the best pitchers in Cuba before defecting last September. He was the ace of the Cuban rotation that included Aroldis Chapman. he won the Cuban equivalent of the Cy Young in the 2008-09 season. Most scouts believe he can pitch for the Nationals almost as soon as he arrives.

Fantasy owners should be very aware of Maya. He may even impact the pennant races in some leagues, especially NL-only leagues. He'll report to Florida for extended Spring Training but should move through the system quickly.




EDIT: To add quotes from the August 1st Press Conference (h/t FederalBaseball.com)

"The actual negotiations went fairly quickly once were able to negotiate," DC GM Mike Rizzo explained when asked how long the team had been talking to Maya, "There's a strict policy and the red tape of getting him the documentation he needs to come to the states....we went after him quickly and aggressively as a person we thought could give us instant impact at the major league level for the long term and that's the reason we decided to sign him to a major league contract." (ed. note - "According to Washington Post writer Adam Kilgore, the contract is worth $6M over 4 years.")

The Nationals had a "very thorough evaluatory process" of the pitcher, Mr. Rizzo continued, "He was seen I think by five separate scouts on separate occasions, during international competition over the years, most recently during the World Baseball Classic and we had multiple reports on him and we scouted him very in-depth in the Dominican Republic once we got over there."

"How soon will Maya be in the Majors?" Mr. Rizzo said that, "Yunesky's going to be around [in D.C.] for a couple days to see the ballgame(s), then he's going to immediately fly to Viera [FL] to throw in front of our Pitching Coordinator Spin Williams. We're going to assess where he's at in his conditioning and how stretched out he is as far as a number of pitches he can [throw], then...he'll throw a live bullpen, a simulated game, do a rehab start, then we'll reassess at that point where he goes, if he comes directly to the big leagues or to the minor leagues for a little bit of more seasoning and to build his pitch count up."