The Return of Carlos Beltran

Less than a week from today Carlos Beltran is expected to be on the field for the New York Mets. That is something that has been impossible to say with any conviction for most of the last two seasons. Beltran missed a large part of the 2009 season and the entire first half of the 2010 season basically preparing and then recovering from surgery on his right knee. On July 15th he is expected to return as center fielder of the New York Mets. But how much can he contribute?

Before the 2009 season, Beltran was considered one of the best players in baseball and one of the more consistent fantasy options. In NL-only leagues Beltran is probably already on someone's roster. In the shallower mixed leagues he may still be available. Beltran contributed in every batting category. I still expect Beltran to hit for average. He is one of the most disciplined hitters in baseball. He rarely swings at balls out of the strikezone and has an extremely good contact rate. He has a career .302 BABIP and a .283 career batting average.

Beltran has been one of the better base-stealers in the game. His success rate has always been one of the best in baseball. Although he has not stolen 40 bases (nor more than 25) in several years, he has been a consistent threat to steal 20 or so bases a season. This was true even last season before the injury when he had 11 stolen bases (1 cs) in 308 at-bats. I expect we will see Beltran attempt fewer stolen bases. Even if the knee is healthy I think the Mets will do everything in their power to keep him healthy which unfortunately includes taking away the green light.

Mets manager Jerry Manuel has suggested installing Beltran directly into the third spot in the lineup. He told ESPN.com that it depended on Beltran's energy level and also a bit on David Wright's production.

"I've thought about it a couple of different ways," the manager said. "If he appears fresh, I was thinking of having him probably third. If not, I'll probably bat him around fifth or sixth."

And asked about keeping NL RBI Leader, David Wright in the third spot.

"As long as he keeps doing that, we could bat Carlos right after him [at cleanup] and give David that switch hitter with experience behind him to make sure he stays hot," Manuel said. "Not that [incumbent No. 4 hitter] Ike Davis doesn't hit, but [Beltran] is an All-Star player -- a switch hitter, power both sides."

Before he succumbed to the knee injury, Beltran was enjoying a fairly good season marred only by a disturbing lack of power. In retrospect, it is not difficult to surmise that the knee was bothering him all along and playing with the injury was sapping his power. However, the 33-year old Beltran has also experienced a three-year decline in HR/FB (21.1, 17.1, 15.7, 10.8) one of the leading indicators of a player's power. It is very possible that with the knee finally fixed, there is a rebound in Beltran's power numbers. That seems likely to me. Beltran's batted ball ratios have remained steady. My guess is he bats at a 20-30 homer pace which should make most owners happy.

In Conclusion
Fantasy owners should scoop up Carlos Beltran if he is still available. If he is truly healthy he should hit for both average and power in the middle of a productive lineup. The Mets will protect him at first but within a few weeks I expect the kid gloves to be off.
For the balance of the season look for a line like this:

300 at-bats .290/.375/530 with 12-15 homers, 60 runs, 50 RBI, 3-5 stolen bases

What Beltran's Return Means for Angel Pagan and Jeff Francoeur
Manager Jerry Manuel has stated that Beltran will play two games and receive at least one day and perhaps two days off before starting again. This should ensure that both Angel Pagan and Jeff Francoeur receive plenty of at-bats. There has been a lot of debate on who will start when Beltran plays and who should start between Pagan and Francoeur.

When Beltran and Bay are both in the lineup, the most likely scenario is that Pagan plays against right-handers and Francoeur will start against left-handers. Obviously when Beltran is out of the lineup, they should both start. Francouer will probably pinch-hit and play late inning defense quite a bit when he is on the bench.

Chime In - Join the Conversation By Adding to the Comments Section
Are you targeting Beltran? Is my projection for the balance of the season too optimistic? Will he make the Mets better or disturb the chemistry of a team playing fairly well? Let us know what you think in the comments section!

Call To The Pen

Hi everyone, my name's Andre (aka 3FingersBrown) and I'm the newest contributor to Advanced Fantasy Baseball. Jon was kind enough to pick me up off of the waiver wire and give me an opportunity to share my baseball insights and observations with you and I hope you'll find what I have to say useful and entertaining.

I've been involved with fantasy baseball for six years but I've been playing baseball simulations since the mid-80's, be it through pen and paper games like Strat-o-matic or computer sims such as Micro League Baseball and Earl Weaver.

As long as I can remember baseball has been an obsession. From the moment I gripped a bat, to the day I opened the cover of "Moneyball," my passion for the game has only grown over the years. As I've gotten deeper into fantasy baseball and begun reading more advanced statistical analysis, I have begun to focus my writing on my favorite sport, ultimately starting my own baseball blog, Three True Outcomes.

Currently I'm playing in two leagues. One is a 5x5, 15-team mixed roto league, that counts OBP instead of AVG and features NFBC style rosters. My home league, which drafts live, is a 6x6 (standard 5x5 plus OBP and QS) 12-team mixed keeper league. Now in it's fourth year, I'm coming off a championship season in 2009 and I have my eyes set on a repeat performance.

I have a background in the film and television industry, where I've worked in a number of different roles over the years. I'm also a freelance writer with work in a variety of subjects such as music, film and pop-culture essays, commercial copy and screen-writing. One of the die-hard Flushing Faithful, I'm holding out hope that this is the year that the Mets finally return to championship glory after a 24 year drought.

I'll be posting on a number of different baseball-related topics such as in-depth player profiles, prospects, advanced statistical analysis, fantasy strategy and more. With all that said, I'm looking forward to continuing the endless narrative that our great American pastime provides - so lets Play ball!

First-Half Offensive MVPs, Goats and Waiver Wire Studs

I know Jon posted his fantasy all-stars yesterday, but I have been working on this for a few days now, so please forgive me if there is a little bit of repetition here. I will go by league and position pointing out the MVP, Goat and Waiver Wire stud (someone who went undrafted according to average draft position in ESPN leagues) with a very brief description of my reasoning. For outfielders, I will pick two of each. Let’s get some good discussion going on this!

Catcher
AL MVP: Victor Martinez – The lack of depth at catcher really shines through in the AL. Joe Mauer is hitting a great .301, but has managed just 4 HR this season, so the honor falls to Martinez, who definitely struggled mightily out of the gate, but has turned things around in the last couple months.
NL MVP: Miguel Olivo – Not only is Olivo the MVP on the power of a .311 average with 11 HR, but he is also my pick for WW Stud at the position in the NL. He was largely undrafted in ESPN leagues this season (he was the 16th choice among catchers).
AL Goat: A.J. Pierzynski – The disaster of a season for the former all-star catcher seemed to be turning around in early June, but he has fallen back into a slump and his batting average sits at .237. He is 1-for-15 in July so far.
NL Goat: Bengie Molina – Since Bengie was just traded to the AL last week, I will still count him as a NLer for this article’s purposes. Molina looks like he has turned the corner (in a negative way) and has struggled to a .255/.310/.325 mark with just 3 HR this season. This is a guy who belted 20 HR last year!
AL WW Stud: John Buck – Wasn’t drafted at all this season pretty much anywhere and stands sixth overall in my points league.
NL WW Stud: Olivo (see above)

First Base
AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera – Beast. Total, unadulterated B-E-A-S-T. He is by far and away the points leader on the season.
NL MVP: Joey Votto – Votto edges out Albert Pujols by virtue of having one more HR and a few points higher batting average on the day I wrote this. Of course it could go either way.
AL Goat: Chris Davis – If you drafted him (he went 153rd overall on average in ESPN leagues), you likely don’t have him anymore. He’s the dictionary definition of the term BUST.
NL Goat: Todd Helton – Hey, this guy has treated us to years and years of terrific production. Age has just seemed to catch up to him now, as he is dealing right now with a gimpy back and hammy to go with a career-low .246 BA.
AL WW Stud – There really haven’t been any players who were truly “undrafted” that have made a huge impact; however, with a few more good games this month, Russell Branyan would take the honor – I’m just not ready to hand it over yet.
NL WW Stud: Aubrey Huff – Huff has as many points as Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder this season. For someone who started the year on every waiver wire, that’s amazing. Yes, I know he plays mostly OF now, but he qualifies at 1B everywhere.

Second Base
AL MVP: Robinson Cano – Cano is the easy choice here – not only is he blowing away everybody in the league in scoring, but his best competition, Dustin Pedroia, is injured right now.
NL MVP: Martin Prado – A pair of HR last night raised Prado’s SLG% to an even .500. I thought this guy was going to be a slap hitter! A lack of stolen bases is distressing, but his numbers across the board have been pretty astounding. Oh yeah, he was the 15th second baseman taken on average in ESPN leagues.
AL Goat: Aaron Hill – This guy is making me pull my own hair out. He hasn’t been able to get himself over the Mendoza Line for more than a couple days all season long. Hill’s draft-day price (8th second baseman taken, on average) makes him one of the biggest busts on this list. Apologies to Brian Roberts, I know you deserve to be here too!
NL Goat: Chase Utley – Not many choices on the NL side, so considering his average draft position (first 2B taken with the 6th overall pick on average), I will call him the goat. The fact that he will miss all of July and most of August will have many owners agreeing.
AL WW Stud: Alberto Callaspo – He has quietly been having an above-average season so far, with 8 HR and a .279 average.
NL WW Stud: Juan Uribe – Freddy Sanchez and Edgar Renteria’s injuries helped propel Uribe to 12 HR and 46 RBI this season. Definitely above replacement value.

Third Base
AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez – You could make a case for Evan Longoria – heck, even Michael Young, but ARod is sitting in the clubhouse with the most RBI (67) among all Major League third basemen. And he started slow!
NL MVP: David Wright – He has gone ahead and officially proven that last year’s power outage was a total aberration.
AL Goat: Chone Figgins – Apologies to Gordon Beckham, but Figgins went 9th overall among third basemen on draft day. He has rewarded his owners with a .233/.330/.272 mark. Even 23 steals can’t make up for that.
NL Goat: Aramis Ramirez – Taken 8th overall among third basemen on draft day, holy cow Ramirez has been AWFUL! He is only 32 years old, but struggled to a .189/.250/.342 mark – and that was before he started getting injured. He and Aaron Hill are competing hard for bust of the season.
AL WW Stud: Jose Bautista – Face it, nobody could have predicted that Bautista would be leading Major League Baseball with 22 HR on July 8! NOBODY! And just about everyone who owns him snagged him off waivers.
NL WW Stud: Scott Rolen – Troy Glaus also deserves some recognition, but Rolen went undrafted according to ESPN and has scored more in my points league than Ryan Zimmerman, Mark Reynolds and Adrian Beltre. Not sure many of us were predicting the .296/.362/.560 line he is putting up.

Shortstop
AL MVP: Derek Jeter – He is a little behind his 2009 numbers, but Jeter is pretty much blowing the rest of the AL away (not that hard to do at shortstop) with 8 HR, 40 RBI and a .277/.344/.398 line. His only AL competition would be my WW Stud below…
NL MVP: Hanley Ramirez – Hard to make the call for anyone else. Even if a .296 average isn’t up to his usual lofty standards, we will all take the 13 HR and 16 SB.
AL Goat: J.J. Hardy – The move to the AL and a few injuries have derailed his season. Hey, he never really hit for average in Milwaukee, but at least he was driving in runs with the long ball. These days, he boasts a whopping 3 HR and 13 (yeah, 13!) RBI in 149 at-bats this season.
NL Goat: Jimmy Rollins – It’s hard to penalize a guy for being injured, but considering that he was the fourth SS taken off the board and has managed just 102 at-bats this season, I think it’s safe to call him a bust for now. Let’s see if he can salvage something in the second half.
AL WW Stud: Alex Gonzalez – Can you tell that Toronto is having an above-average season? Alex is the third of the Blue Jays’ WW Studs, and a humongous April (7 HR) has powered him to be the fourth-highest scorer among all SS in my points league.
NL WW Stud: Cristian Guzman – Not many choices on the NL side, but Guzman has proven his versatility – rotating between second base and SS to post a .297 average with 38 runs scored. He has outperformed teammate Ian Desmond, who was projected to put up better numbers.

Outfielders
AL MVPs: Josh Hamilton and Carl Crawford – Hamilton has been other-worldly good and is second to only Miguel Cabrera in scoring this season (in points leagues). Crawford has been nearly as devastating and is the only non-specialty player (such as Juan Pierre or Michael Bourn) with more than 25 steals this season. Of the five players with 25 or more steals, Crawford has the same amount of HR as the other 4 combined. Apologies definitely go to Vladimir Guerrero (even though he is basically a DH, he was the 152nd player taken overall on average and has been absolutely dominant this season – wow the Angels made a huge mistake).
NL MVPs: Adam Dunn and Carlos Gonzalez – The NL hasn’t been anywhere near as strong as the AL among outfielders. Dunn ranks behind five AL Outfielders. Dunn gets the nod because he has somehow managed to post a .280/.367/.572 line despite an already death-defying 100 strikeouts. Gonzalez (.307/.339/.514) has been solid all season long, and he has 15 HR and 12 SB to his credit. You should see some of the names that were drafted ahead of him – from Curtis Granderson to Shane Victorino to Adam Jones to Raul Ibanez (and the list goes on) – he has outperformed them all.
AL Goats: Jacoby Ellsbury and Grady Sizemore – Another pair of injury casualties, Ellsbury has only managed 44 at-bats this season due to a variety of maladies. Sizemore was horrible LONG BEFORE he had the knee surgery that ended his season. These guys went 6th and 8th overall among all outfielders on draft day – OUCH!
NL Goats: Carlos Lee and Nate McLouth – Not nearly as egregious as the two guys above, still Carlos Lee has fallen off the planet and can’t seem to get his average above .230. McLouth started slow and continued to be slow until the Braves (mercifully) put him on the DL in early June with mysterious “concussion-like symptoms.” Up to that point, he was batting .176 with 14 RBI – that’s a long way from his Pittsburgh glory days.
AL WW Studs: Brennan Boesch and Austin Jackson – You know the Tigers must be having a good season if two of their three OF made the WW Stud list! You may not have heard of the rookie Boesch before, but unless you have been living under a rock, you know who he is now. Boesch ranks 24th in RBI among all OF – he also has fewer at-bats than anyone in the top 30 because he was called up on April 24! This is a guy who was completely unowned in April and is 100% owned today – now that’s some good ROI. Jackson may have slumped in late May, but he is again firing on all cylinders and is batting .306 with 50 runs scored and 13 steals.
NL WW Studs: Corey Hart and Jonny Gomes – Full disclosure, I had to stretch the “undrafted” part of my criteria to include Hart, although his average draft position was 232.7 on ESPN (blame the lack of great options in this category, OK?). After an excruciatingly slow start, Hart exploded for 10 HR in the month of May and maintained his good play in June. Gomes wasn’t supposed to have a full-time gig on draft day, but he has jumped on his chance for increased playing time and has responded with a .280/.333/.473 mark in just 264 at-bats this season.

The Fantasy League All-Star Teams

As I was putting this together I began to wonder. Do fantasy owners get anything out of their players being voted to All-Star teams? I have to admit I get a sort of cheap thrill from it. It feels like a mild validation, especially when the younger guys on my keeper league teams are voted in. I would love to hear your opinions on this in the comments section below.

The criteria I used to put these together involved more than just a list of the best players. It also considered the players that came at a discount or seemed to arise out of nowhere to have great value in the first half. Let me know if you agree with my choices or if you think I'm a blithering idiot.

American League Fantasy All-Stars

C Victor Martinez, Boston Red Sox
C John Jaso, Tampa Bay Rays

1B Justin Mourneau, Minnesota Twins
3B Adrian Beltre, Boston Red Sox
CR Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers

2B Robinson Cano, New York Yankees
SS Elvis Andrus, Texas Rangers
MI Mike Aviles, Kansas City Royals

OF Josh Hamilton, Texas Rangers
OF Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay Rays
OF Nelson Cruz, Texas Rangers
OF Brennan Boesch, Detroit Tigers
OF Brett Gardner, New York Yankees

DH Vladimir Guerrero, Texas Rangers

SP Cliff Lee, Seattle Mariners
SP Francisco Liriano, Minnesota Twins
SP Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels
SP David Price, Tampa Bay Rays
SP Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers

P Brandon Morrow, Toronto Blue Jays
P Joaquin Benoit, Tampa Bay Rays

RP Neftali Feliz, Texas Rangers
RP Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals

National League Fantasy All-Stars

C Geovanny Sota, Chicago Cubs
C Miguel Olivo, Colorado Rockies

1B Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds
3B Scott Rolen, Cincinnati Reds
CR Aubrey Huff, San Francisco Giants

2B Kelly Johnson, Arizona Diamondbacks
SS Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles Dodgers
MI Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins

OF Josh Willingham, Washington Nationals
OF Andre Ethier, Los Angeles Dodgers
OF Colby Rasmus, St. Louis Cardinals
OF Corey Hart, Milwaukee Brewers
OF Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh Pirates

UTL David Wright, New York Mets

SP Josh Johnson, Florida Marlins
SP Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies
SP Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers
SP Ubaldo Jimenez, Colorado Rockies
SP Jaime Garcia, St. Louis Cardinals

P Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs
P Sean Marshall, Chicago Cubs

RP Heath Bell, San Diego Padres
RP Jonathan Broxton, Los Angeles Dodgers

Time for you to Chime In
Who are your all-stars? Who has been essential to your fantasy team that isn't listed above. Are All-Star posts useless on Fantasy Sites? I wanna hear it from you in the comment section.

Top 5 All-Star Game Snubs

Let's face it, the fans will never help in getting this right, but at least it gives us something to talk and write about. That said, here are my top 5 all-star snubs. Note that this was written before fan voting ended for the "final roster spot," so those guys will be marked with an asterisk, for those of you who want to vote.

1. Jered Weaver -- The AL is loaded with starting pitching this year on the all-star team, but Weaver currently ranks No. 8 among all starting pitchers in the majors in my points-based fantasy league. Why? Because he just about never turns in a poor performance, and oh yeah....he is LEADING THE MAJORS in strikeouts (124)! Not enough to make the All-Star team you say? Well how about a 2.82 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP? Still not enough? He has 14 quality starts in 17 appearances this season. More you ask? Well, he has 8 wins too for a team in the thick of a division hunt. And the best part? You can't vote for him to make the final roster spot.

2. Heath Bell* -- I am flabbergasted. Taking into account that every team needs a representative on the All-Star team, the powers that be chose Adrian Gonzalez for the Padres. That doesn't seem so bad until you take a look at the next name on this list -- and then you realize that Heath Bell is and has been the best relief pitcher in all of baseball this year. That's right -- the best reliever in baseball, and the numbers back me up. He leads the majors in saves with 23. Among the top 10 players in saves this season, Bell is No. 2 in ERA (behind Rafael Soriano), No. 2 in strikeouts (behind K-Rod), and No. 1 in vulture wins with 4. If you took Bell on the team and eliminated Adrian, it might give you room for...

3. Joey Votto* -- I understand that first base is a completely stacked position this season, but still, Votto is the MVP candidate on a surging Reds squad, and there is no way he should be left off the team. They selected the top 10 RBI men in baseball and left off number 11 (Paul Konerko) and 12 (Votto) -- and Votto has a better batting average (.312) than all but three of the top 10. Let's compare him to Adrian...Votto has more hits, more HR, more RBI, more runs scored and a better batting average. Gonzalez has fewer strikeouts, and they are tied in walks. Enough said.

4. Paul Konerko* -- The AL version of the Votto situation -- the situation, not the player. This was a very tough choice between Konerko and Kevin Youkilis. First base is stacked in the AL too, and there is no case that can be made for Konerko (or Youkilis) going in ahead of Justin Morneau or Miguel Cabrera. That said, Paulie is 11th in the majors in RBI, and has the same amount of HR as Cabrera, Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols. And if you think he got snubbed because he can't hit for average, you are wrong there as well, because he is hitting .296. Konerko's edge in HR and RBI numbers gave him the nod over Youkilis for me, and either player's numbers completely trump those of second-team All-Star DH David Ortiz, for example.

5. Jaime Garcia -- Garcia has a better ERA (2.099) than any starting pitcher not named Josh Johnson. He has as many wins as Johnson and fellow All-Stars Tim Hudson, Tim Lincecum and Yovani Gallardo. This is the penalty of being a rookie these days...just ask Jason Heyward! But seriously, Garcia has been an awesome surprise and a waiver-wire stud this season, and he deserves some recognition. Of his 16 starts this season, 13 of them were quality starts.

Just so you are aware, these are the other guys you can vote in for the final roster spot: Kevin Youkilis, Nick Swisher, Delmon Young and Michael Young in the AL; and Carlos Gonzalez, Billy Wagner and Ryan Zimmerman in the NL.

Go ahead and make your case for anyone I didn't include in the comments section!

NSFW But its a holiday anyway

It is the Fourth of July weekend and no one is watching. So we'll take a brief detour from Fantasy Baseball to witness the greatest movie insults of all time. With a hat tip to Scott of Go To the Story.com

Orioles Prospect Josh Bell Gets the Call

Third baseman Josh Bell has been recalled from Triple-A Norfolk and will be activated by the Orioles in time for Thursday night's game. He will bat seventh and man third base. The Orioles needed a bat with Luke Scott being placed on the disabled list with a strained hamstring.

I like Bell a lot as a prospect and believe he will eventually be a productive major league player. However, he was not exactly tearing up Triple-A. He was batting .266 for Norfolk with 10 homers and 44 RBIs in 74 games this season. He should be owned in all AL-only leagues and large mixed leagues with deep rosters should be aware.

This is what I wrote about Bell before the 2010 season started:

Josh Bell became an Oriole via the Los Angeles Dodgers by being the primary return in the George Sherrill trade. There is a strong possibility that he begins the 2010 season as the starting third baseman. Oddly, it seems his development as a switch hitter is going to be a major factor in the decision. Bell is extremely good from the left side of the plate facing right-handed pitchers. According to minorleaguesplits.com, Josh Bell hit .340 with 19 homers in 315 at-bats as a left-handed hitter, and .198 with one homer in 131 at-bats as a right-handed hitter in 2009. Most reports say his mechanics are fine from both sides of the plate though ESPN’s Jason Grey has said he can “get a little big” swinging from his heels on the right-handed side.

There are those that believe that Bell should abandon switch-hitting and become a left-handed batter. This is the possibility most likely to send Bell to the minors (assuming he has a strong spring and the Orioles do not make a huge move to fill the position). In this scenario, the Orioles would be unlikely to allow Bell to adjust to seeing left-handed pitching from the left side in the majors. Fortunately, those closest to the Orioles believe they are happy with Bell as he is and want to see him continue to switch hit. The belief there (and here) is that Bell can develop enough as a hitter from the right side to be an asset.

Josh Bell just became more dangerous as the season and the post season passed. He was a monster in the AFL. He posted an Isolated Power of .281 (for reference Alex Rodriguez has a career ISO of .271) after the trade, during 114 at-bats at double-A for the Orioles. On the season, he slashed .297/.370/.538 with 35 doubles, 2 triples, 20 homeruns. He also received a very favorable projection from theThe Bill James Handbook 2010. He probably will not be much of a sleeper come draft season but he is an incredibly talented prospect that is worthy of fantasy attention even as a rookie.