(Re-Introducing)

Wednesday, July 07, 2010

Monday, July 05, 2010

Top 5 All-Star Game Snubs

Let's face it, the fans will never help in getting this right, but at least it gives us something to talk and write about. That said, here are my top 5 all-star snubs. Note that this was written before fan voting ended for the "final roster spot," so those guys will be marked with an asterisk, for those of you who want to vote.

1. Jered Weaver -- The AL is loaded with starting pitching this year on the all-star team, but Weaver currently ranks No. 8 among all starting pitchers in the majors in my points-based fantasy league. Why? Because he just about never turns in a poor performance, and oh yeah....he is LEADING THE MAJORS in strikeouts (124)! Not enough to make the All-Star team you say? Well how about a 2.82 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP? Still not enough? He has 14 quality starts in 17 appearances this season. More you ask? Well, he has 8 wins too for a team in the thick of a division hunt. And the best part? You can't vote for him to make the final roster spot.

2. Heath Bell* -- I am flabbergasted. Taking into account that every team needs a representative on the All-Star team, the powers that be chose Adrian Gonzalez for the Padres. That doesn't seem so bad until you take a look at the next name on this list -- and then you realize that Heath Bell is and has been the best relief pitcher in all of baseball this year. That's right -- the best reliever in baseball, and the numbers back me up. He leads the majors in saves with 23. Among the top 10 players in saves this season, Bell is No. 2 in ERA (behind Rafael Soriano), No. 2 in strikeouts (behind K-Rod), and No. 1 in vulture wins with 4. If you took Bell on the team and eliminated Adrian, it might give you room for...

3. Joey Votto* -- I understand that first base is a completely stacked position this season, but still, Votto is the MVP candidate on a surging Reds squad, and there is no way he should be left off the team. They selected the top 10 RBI men in baseball and left off number 11 (Paul Konerko) and 12 (Votto) -- and Votto has a better batting average (.312) than all but three of the top 10. Let's compare him to Adrian...Votto has more hits, more HR, more RBI, more runs scored and a better batting average. Gonzalez has fewer strikeouts, and they are tied in walks. Enough said.

4. Paul Konerko* -- The AL version of the Votto situation -- the situation, not the player. This was a very tough choice between Konerko and Kevin Youkilis. First base is stacked in the AL too, and there is no case that can be made for Konerko (or Youkilis) going in ahead of Justin Morneau or Miguel Cabrera. That said, Paulie is 11th in the majors in RBI, and has the same amount of HR as Cabrera, Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols. And if you think he got snubbed because he can't hit for average, you are wrong there as well, because he is hitting .296. Konerko's edge in HR and RBI numbers gave him the nod over Youkilis for me, and either player's numbers completely trump those of second-team All-Star DH David Ortiz, for example.

5. Jaime Garcia -- Garcia has a better ERA (2.099) than any starting pitcher not named Josh Johnson. He has as many wins as Johnson and fellow All-Stars Tim Hudson, Tim Lincecum and Yovani Gallardo. This is the penalty of being a rookie these days...just ask Jason Heyward! But seriously, Garcia has been an awesome surprise and a waiver-wire stud this season, and he deserves some recognition. Of his 16 starts this season, 13 of them were quality starts.

Just so you are aware, these are the other guys you can vote in for the final roster spot: Kevin Youkilis, Nick Swisher, Delmon Young and Michael Young in the AL; and Carlos Gonzalez, Billy Wagner and Ryan Zimmerman in the NL.

Go ahead and make your case for anyone I didn't include in the comments section!

Saturday, July 03, 2010

NSFW But its a holiday anyway

It is the Fourth of July weekend and no one is watching. So we'll take a brief detour from Fantasy Baseball to witness the greatest movie insults of all time. With a hat tip to Scott of Go To the Story.com

Thursday, July 01, 2010

Orioles Prospect Josh Bell Gets the Call

Third baseman Josh Bell has been recalled from Triple-A Norfolk and will be activated by the Orioles in time for Thursday night's game. He will bat seventh and man third base. The Orioles needed a bat with Luke Scott being placed on the disabled list with a strained hamstring.

I like Bell a lot as a prospect and believe he will eventually be a productive major league player. However, he was not exactly tearing up Triple-A. He was batting .266 for Norfolk with 10 homers and 44 RBIs in 74 games this season. He should be owned in all AL-only leagues and large mixed leagues with deep rosters should be aware.

This is what I wrote about Bell before the 2010 season started:

Josh Bell became an Oriole via the Los Angeles Dodgers by being the primary return in the George Sherrill trade. There is a strong possibility that he begins the 2010 season as the starting third baseman. Oddly, it seems his development as a switch hitter is going to be a major factor in the decision. Bell is extremely good from the left side of the plate facing right-handed pitchers. According to minorleaguesplits.com, Josh Bell hit .340 with 19 homers in 315 at-bats as a left-handed hitter, and .198 with one homer in 131 at-bats as a right-handed hitter in 2009. Most reports say his mechanics are fine from both sides of the plate though ESPN’s Jason Grey has said he can “get a little big” swinging from his heels on the right-handed side.

There are those that believe that Bell should abandon switch-hitting and become a left-handed batter. This is the possibility most likely to send Bell to the minors (assuming he has a strong spring and the Orioles do not make a huge move to fill the position). In this scenario, the Orioles would be unlikely to allow Bell to adjust to seeing left-handed pitching from the left side in the majors. Fortunately, those closest to the Orioles believe they are happy with Bell as he is and want to see him continue to switch hit. The belief there (and here) is that Bell can develop enough as a hitter from the right side to be an asset.

Josh Bell just became more dangerous as the season and the post season passed. He was a monster in the AFL. He posted an Isolated Power of .281 (for reference Alex Rodriguez has a career ISO of .271) after the trade, during 114 at-bats at double-A for the Orioles. On the season, he slashed .297/.370/.538 with 35 doubles, 2 triples, 20 homeruns. He also received a very favorable projection from theThe Bill James Handbook 2010. He probably will not be much of a sleeper come draft season but he is an incredibly talented prospect that is worthy of fantasy attention even as a rookie.

Searching for a Pitching Upgrade?

Hi Jon

Looking to improve my pitching and capitalize on what I think is a buy-low / sell-high.

I deal:
Carl Crawford, Billy Butler, Scott Baker and Carlos Marmol

I get:
Justin Upton, Juan Pierre, Dan Haren and Huston Street.

I'm thinking I net even on steals, saves and Ks and am sacrificing RBI and Average for improved pitching ratios and upside potential in both Upton and Haren.

What do you think?

I think we should start by looking at the stats of the players involved.

Carl Crawford - .310/.373/.488, with seven homers, 57 runs, 38 RBI and 27 stolen bases

Crawford seems to be past his shoulder problems. He hit .296/.380/.481 with 12 stolen bases in June. The last seven days he has hit .364/.364/.455 so he doesn't seem to be slowing down at all.

Billy Butler - .322/.377/.480, with 8 homers, 40 runs, 42 RBI and zero stolen bases

Billy Butler is having a nice season. He might be slower to develop the power we'd like to see out of our first basemen but there is very little to complain about here. For June he is batting .284/.333/.461 and .304/.385/.478 the lat seven days.

Scott Baker - 4.97 ERA/4.07 FIP/3.81 xFIP with six wins, 7.78 K9, 1.78 BB9, and 1.41 HR9

June has not been kind to Scott Baker. But most of the problem as illustrated by his xFIP has been poor luck. With a regression closer to his FIP seeming likely, I think he will have an excellent second half.

Carlos Marmol - 2.27 ERA/2.32 FIP/ 2.84 xFIP with two wins, 14 saves, 16.65 K9, 6.31 BB9 0.25 HR9

Marmol isn't always great in non-save situations. The Cubs losing ways don't help. However, Marmol has provided excellent numbers and a decent save total. He has a pretty firm grip on the closer role at this point.

Now, the return package:

Justin Upton - .269/.355/.472 with 14 homers, 48 runs, 39 RBI, 11 stolen bases

Upton began the season rather slow but has hit .312/.423/.548 with six homers and three stolen bases in June. Crawford has been better than him thus far but if Upton keeps up his current pace he will have been the better player at the end of the season.

Juan Pierre - .249/.317/ .279 with zero homers, 39 runs, 13 RBI and 29 stolen bases

Juan Pierre is not a great hitter. However he has value to fantasy teams because the White Sox let him run wild. Unfortunately he provides zero power and not much run production. I would not expect his numbers to improve but they shouldn't decline much either.

Dan Haren - 4.56 ERA/3.90 FIP/3.43 xFIP with seven wins, 8.90 K9, 1.70 BB9, 1.47 HR9

Haren has not been as bad as Baker but they both have had rotten luck. This is especially surprising in the year of the pitcher. Haren has not been particularly great of late. He may be an upgrade over Baker but not a tremendous one.

Huston Street - his stats are irrelevant at this point

Street has just returned to the Rockies active roster after spending most of the season on the disabled list. I can ignore my code against trading for pitchers recently coming off the disabled list (even ones with shoulder injuries and a lot of bad injury history). However, I still have to point out that despite achieving his first save, manager Jim Tracy is insisting that the closer-by-committee is still in effect. This is not to say he won't re-earn the job, just that he does not yet have it secured.

In Conclusion
Whew...so. Our reader is looking for a pitching upgrade. There is probably one here, assuming Street stays healthy and becomes the closer again. Not an assumption I would make, but it is a fair possibility. It is a risk but one that is (as the reader surmised) at the cost of batting average, probably a few homers and some RBI production. I believe he'll actually gain in steals. But the actual difference in pitching is almost nothing. For perhaps a few points of ERA, you lose quite a bit if nothing changes.

The entire trade seems to hinge on Dan Haren pitching like the top ten pitcher he was expected to be. He has yet to show much of that Haren to this point. And although I don't really believe in labeling players first or second half players, Haren is definitely more of the later. Check out his last three years of stats:

By Day/Month	ERA	W	L	SV	SVO	G	GS	CG	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	AVG
April	2.10	9	6	0	0	17	17	1	111.2	83	35	26	9	21	89	.203
May	3.07	6	4	0	0	16	16	0	111.1	88	38	38	11	19	103	.214
June	1.80	9	1	0	0	17	17	1	120.1	77	26	24	11	23	110	.180
July	2.77	10	3	0	0	16	16	1	107.1	99	39	33	6	23	99	.236
August	4.97	7	6	0	0	17	17	0	108.2	132	64	60	21	19	112	.295
September	4.38	4	6	0	0	16	16	1	102.2	122	53	50	11	27	101	.298
October	7.50	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	6.0	9	5	5	1	1	7	.346

Pre All-Star	2.34	27	13	0	0	56	56	3	385.0	284	115	100	33	70	342	.202

Post All-Star	4.33	18	14	0	0	44	44	1	283.0	326	145	136	37	63	279	.286

I would save my trade ammo for a more certain upgrade. I think the risk that nothing is gained in the desired areas is too strong in this deal. I would pass and look to acquire a pitcher performing better right now. Perhaps one of these guys:

Name	Team	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	AVG	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	E-F	xFIP

Francisco Liriano	Twins	9.67	2.46	3.93	0.18	.259	1.26	.355	71.9 %	3.47	2.20	1.27	3.01
Cliff Lee	Mariners	7.34	0.47	15.60	0.47	.235	0.92	.289	71.6 %	2.45	2.34	0.10	3.31
Josh Johnson	Marlins	8.92	2.25	3.96	0.33	.202	0.96	.270	81.9 %	1.83	2.47	-0.64	3.17
Roy Halladay	Phillies	7.75	1.18	6.59	0.69	.257	1.11	.315	80.3 %	2.42	2.85	-0.43	3.04
Tim Lincecum	Giants	10.16	3.65	2.79	0.52	.231	1.25	.319	75.9 %	3.13	2.88	0.25	3.22
Jered Weaver	Angels	10.45	2.12	4.92	0.97	.233	1.09	.311	75.3 %	3.01	2.93	0.08	3.22
Yovani Gallardo	Brewers	9.91	3.80	2.61	0.50	.223	1.23	.304	79.2 %	2.56	2.97	-0.41	3.46
Jon Lester	Red Sox	9.34	3.45	2.71	0.42	.205	1.11	.277	76.5 %	2.86	3.02	-0.16	3.44
Ubaldo Jimenez	Rockies	8.12	3.19	2.55	0.40	.199	1.05	.255	86.2 %	1.83	3.08	-1.24	3.68
Adam Wainwright	Cardinals	8.60	2.41	3.56	0.68	.213	1.03	.269	81.3 %	2.34	3.11	-0.77	3.28

Any other opinions on this deal out there? Feel free to leave your questions, comments or even complaints in the comment section.

Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Filling Chase Utley's Shoes

I received the following e-mail this morning:

5X5 H2H league (OBP instead of Avg). My free agent choices are M.Tejada, Jose Lopez, Beckham, Pennington, Peralta, or S. Rodriguez. Obviously Utley is my MI (behind Kinsler/Rollins).

Whaddya think?
Big Mike

Tough decision. At least you have a mix of possibilities. You have the fading veteran in Tejada. The underachieving veteran in Lopez. The struggling phenom in Beckham. The slap-hitting speedster in Pennington, the disappointing Peralta, and the underutilized youngster in Sean Rodriguez.

Part of the decision has to be based on how your team is doing and what your category needs are.

Miguel Tejada, Baltimore Orioles - Tejada no longer provides much power. He hits for a fairly empty average thanks to being part of the underachieving Orioles lineup. In your league he is nearly worthless with just a .313 OBP.

Jose Lopez, Seattle Mariners - Lopez probably has more upside than Tejada at this point but his stats are even worse. He has a slash line of .244/.269/.337 and is showing zero power. Definitely pass.

Gordon Beckham, Chicago White Sox - Beckham is the most promising of the players on this list. He was expected to be a force in Chicago but has slumped through most of the season. He is swinging at more pitches out of the zone than he did in his rookie season. However, his contact rates are still pretty good and there is definitely a degree of bad luck. Unfortunately he does not walk much. There have been some signs of life this week, he hit his first homer in quite some time and seems to be coming around. If you can afford to embrace some risk this might be a good place to go.

Cliff Pennington, Oakland Athletics - Pennington is a mediocre hitter but he steals bases and walks enough to justify his reputation as a leadoff hitter. He has a slash of .247/.323/.359 and like the others has displayed little power. But mediocre is better than lousy and that makes him a real possibility.

Jhonny Peralta, Cleveland Indians - Peralta showed some promise a few years ago but seemed to lose it when he was moved off shortstop. Perhaps his defensive position is like Sampson's hair. Still, he has more powers than the others have shown (though nothing to go crazy about). He's a possibility if we're desperate for any homeruns we can get.

Sean Rodriguez, Tampa Bay Rays - Rodriguez hasn't been that great overall but has been hot in June. Hitting .292 with four home runs and three stolen bases as of the 26th. His potential is second only to Beckham on this list. I have a hunch he'd have been better playing everyday than he is sharing a job, but that's just a hunch. He's the hot hand.

So here are your options:

Shoot for the Stars - Gordon Beckham who has shown signs of life lately.

Take the stolen bases and the best OBP you can get - Cliff Pennington, probably the safest bet.

Desperate for Power - Jhonny Peralta, hope he gets back what he lost in the second half.

Play the hot hand - Sean Rodriguez, hope he keeps it up.

I tend to be an embrace risk type of fantasy owner and would grab Beckham. Play it safe types should probably grab Pennington. If you believe whoever you pick up is short term, Rodriguez is probably the one.

Good luck.

Hot Prospects: Mike Minor and Aroldis Chapman

NBC Sports is reporting that the Braves are promoting left-hander Mike Minor to Triple-A Gwinnett after dominating Double-A batters with 109 strikeouts in just 87 innings. Minor is a candidate for a second half call-up if the Braves need the arm. However, they could try to restrict his inning count in just his second professional season.

From Jason Grey

"The No. 7 overall pick in the 2009 draft is a relatively polished four-pitch southpaw (despite his first-inning blowup in the Rising Stars game). He sits at 90-92 mph but showed he could dial it up to 94 when needed. He had good fade on his change, and his curveball was inconsistent but good at times. He needs to improve his fringy slider, but he's another pitcher who could move very quickly but doesn't have a huge ceiling."

They also have a report on Aroldis Chapman's progress in his transition (at least temporarily) into a reliever.

"Excellent," GM Walt Jocketty said when asked how Chapman was doing as a reliever. "His last time out [on Saturday], he pitched one inning and faced two left-handed hitters and struck them out. He got the right-hander out. In that one performance, he was dominating."

Chapman has allowed one run over three innings in two relief appearances with Triple-A Louisville, striking out five and walking one. The Cuban fireballer was scheduled to work two innings behind the rehabbing Edinson Volquez on Tuesday night.