Carlos Zambrano Suspended Indefinitely

Carlos Zambrano, once the unquestioned ace of the Chicago Cubs has been suspended indefinitely. Zambrano has been suspended largely because he can not stop blaming everyone else for his declining skills. And the Cubs are tired of it.



"It becomes a bit of a tired act," said general manager Jim Hendry to ESPN after the Cubs' 6-0 loss to the White Sox on Friday afternoon.

Apparently Zambrano was angry that Derrek Lee missed Juan Pierre's double hit down the first base line. Just check out the above video to see Zambrano's complete meltdown.

For Fantasy owners this is bad news. I have a feeling we will not see Zambrano pitch again until he joins another team. I think the Cubs will have a difficult time getting anything of value for him but they will also be reluctant to just let him go. If you can stash him I would do so but do not let the thought of Zambrano's triumphant return prevent you from picking a more promising player from your waiver or free agent list.

I wonder if the Cubs will be inspired to put Andrew Cashner to work as a starting pitcher. What do you think?

Know When to Hold 'Em - To Trade or Not To Trade

I received an e-mail from a frequent reader this morning. He has been in regular contact of late while he attempts to strengthen his team via trade. The trade he was being offered was a fair one. It was a pretty good outfielder and a pretty good starter for his closer. On the surface this was a good deal for him because dollar for dollar he would win the deal and the names involved probably made it look even better. I advised him to pass on the trade.

There are lots of owners out there obsessed with the idea of winning trades and fair deals. This is not the goal of a good fantasy trade. The object of a trade in fantasy leagues should be to bring yor team closer to winning the championship. In the example above the reader in question had a strong outfield already. He admits that the pretty good outfielder he received would be sitting on his bench. From what I know of his roster he was looking at the starter as a short term fill-in for a couple of better starters presently on the disabled list with short term injuries. For this he was thinking of trading his only true closer.

When making trades owners should hold out for or design trades that will result in a climb up the standings. Worry less about perception and fairness and concentrate on your league standings. I usually make projections of the rest of the season for any players I am thinking of acquiring and calculate how much the trade will help me in the standings.

What is your process when making deals?

10 Guys Available in 80% (or more) of ESPN Leagues that are Worth a Look

1. Ike Davis (20.0 percent owned) – First base is one of the deepest positions in a fantasy lineup this season, which is probably why there are four first basemen on this list. The interesting thing is that 3 of them are rookies. Davis is one of those rookies, and he is batting .286 with 2 HR and 1 SB over the last 15 games. He has David Wright protecting him in the lineup, and as a matter of fact, I watched Wright get intentionally walked to load the bases for Davis twice in the last week. He may strike out too much, but the RBI opportunities will continue to abound for the former Sun Devil. What may be most amazing is that Davis (a lefty) is hitting .328 vs. left-handed pitching this season. Davis is definitely worth a flier in redraft leagues; and he should not be available in keeper leagues.

2. Justin Smoak (19.7) – Our second rookie first baseman has been killing the ball recently. He is third in the AL in RBI with 20 in the month of June, trailing only teammate Josh Hamilton (27 RBI) and Torii Hunter (21). One nice thing about Smoak that sets him apart from most rookies is the fact that he does not strike out much (only 10 K in June). Now that Nelson Cruz has returned from injury, Smoak will have to move down a spot in the order; however, that shouldn’t deter you from nabbing him. Like Davis, Smoak should not be available in any keeper leagues – if he is, stop reading this now and go pick him up.

3. Jeff Keppinger (16.8) – I wanted to include at least one middle infielder on this list, and Keppinger edged out Ian Desmond (another rookie) – mostly because Desmond has fallen into a big slump the last two weeks. He may not wow you with his power numbers, but Keppinger is hitting a steady .280 on the season with a .328 OBP. The biggest plus on Keppinger is his eligibility at 2B, 3B and SS, and he has the potential to contribute to your run totals batting in front of Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee.

4. Gaby Sanchez (11.1) – The Marlins fired their manager, assistant manager and hitting coach on Wednesday; however, this should not negatively impact Sanchez, who has been on fire in June. For the month, the rookie is hitting .356, with a .407 OBP and a .575 SLG. He has 3 HR and 2 SB to go with those gaudy stats. Sanchez is really coming into his own – he has 11 hits in his last 24 ABs – and he has the streaking Chris Coghlan batting in front of him and Hanley Ramirez and Jorge Cantu batting behind him. Expect more of the same in July.

5. AJ Pierzynski (8.9) – Don’t look now, but the joke of a lineup that is the Chicago White Sox is starting to hit. Pierzynski has brought his average up from .219 to .252 in just the last 10 games, and he has 2 HR in that timeframe. After hitting .169 in April and .241 in May, A.J. is hitting .362 in June – and he has gone 3-for-4 in each of the last two games. He’s certainly a better option right now than much more widely owned catchers, such as Ryan Doumit (.162 AVG in his last 15 games) and Rod Barajas (.133 over the last 15).

6. Kris Medlen (8.5) – The first pitcher on the list (there are very few quality starting pitchers at 20-percent owned or less), Medlen nailed down a spot in the Braves’ starting rotation thanks to Jair Jurrjens’ injury, and he will keep it thanks to Kenshin Kawakami’s total ineffectiveness. Since joining the rotation, Medlen has made 7 starts, with 5 of them quality starts. He has three wins and no losses in that timeframe. Impressively, Medlen has posted just 9 walks vs. 29 strikeouts as a starter, and like I said, he will be keeping the job for the foreseeable future. Definitely a great keeper candidate in deep leagues.

7. Evan Meek (8.0) – The 27-year-old right hander has outperformed every pitcher on the Pittsburgh Pirates, including the two guys in front of him on the closing depth chart, Octavio Dotel and Joel Hanrahan (although Hanrahan has been quite solid). Even if Meek never gets another save this season, his numbers as a middle reliever can definitely have a positive impact on your fantasy team. In 40 innings this season, Meek has a miniscule 0.68 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. He may not be Carlos Marmol when it comes to the K, but Meek’s strikeout rate is encouraging (36 Ks in 40 innings – with only 9 walks), his opponent’s batting average of .170 is terrific, and he hasn’t allowed an earned run since May 23 (that’s 12 straight scoreless appearances). If you have a roster spot available, Meek can do wonders for your pitching percentages.

8. Luke Gregerson (5.6) – Gregerson is another middle relief example of a player that can help balance out your pitching percentages. He strikes out more batters than Meek – Gregerson has 43 Ks in 35.2 IP – and oh yeah, he only has THREE walks this season. That’s good for a 0.48 WHIP! If your league counts holds (Gregerson has 17), there is no way he should be available. That said, Luke is definitely another player who helps a whole lot more than he hurts, and if you have roster space available, it’s probably a no-brainer.

9. Hisanori Takahashi (4.6) – The Japanese import has benefitted from a shoulder injury to John Maine, which moved him into the rotation since May 21. Since then, Takahashi has 3 wins with two 6-inning shutouts of the Bronx Bombers (although one was a no-decision). With news that Maine may be shutting it down for good, Takahashi will continue to be the main beneficiary. The only red flag seems to be his dominance over AL teams – 2 of his three wins and 3 of his 4 quality starts came against the AL squads. He is a Met, after all.

10. Russell Branyan (3.1) – Being injured to start the season is a great way to find yourself on this list. Take Russell Branyan – he missed the first 12 games of the year and then struggled through much of May trying to play catch-up. Well, in June Branyan has caught up, batting .279 for the month with 4 HR and an .851 OPS. His resurgence cost the vaunted Matt LaPorta any playing time, and he was subsequently sent to the minors. The fact that Branyan is 3.1-percent owned means he is likely available to you – and while you might not plug him into the lineup tomorrow, he may prove to be a valuable trading chip as the rest of the fantasy world wakes up to what he is doing.

So…have I forgotten someone? Totally disagree? That’s cool...leave a comment!
--Pauly

New Contributor

Hello readers of Advanced Fantasy Baseball!

My name is Pauly, and Jon recently asked me to start contributing to Advanced Fantasy Baseball. After looking over the site, it looks like my posts will be a perfect fit.

Jon found me through my blog, Pauly's Fantasy Hoops and Baseball Corner (I know, not the greatest blog title ever). If you are interested in seeing some of my previous writings, please feel free to check it out (and leave comments). A couple of recent posts you may find interesting are:
The All-Team Killers Infield and Killing us in the Outfield.

I have been playing fantasy baseball for more than 15 years. I am active in two leagues -- one is a 14-team H2H yearly redraft league; and the other is a 13-team roto keeper league. Right now I stand in 6th place in the H2H and second place in the roto keeper.

I also have a sports writing background. Personally, my favorite (and home town) team is the two-time world champion Florida Marlins. I watch just about every Marlins game, but thanks to the MLB.TV package, I am able to scout players on every team, every night (well, most nights anyway).

My first post is coming right up -- I plan to contribute some quick, easy-to-read, yet informative lists dealing with fantasy baseball. I can't wait to read your comments.

--Pauly

Jarrett Hoffpauir: Toronto's Third Baseman

UPDATE: The Toronto Blue Jays have designated Edwin Encarnacion for assignment. I'm not certain why this happened after he seemed to take the demotion in the right spirit. This could be something that his agent instigated but that is purely guesswork. I imagine we'll hear more on this in the next few days.

From the Seattle PI:

Toronto, ON (Sports Network) - The Toronto Blue Jays have designated third baseman Edwin Encarnacion for assignment. Encarnacion, 27, was batting .200 with nine home runs and 22 RBI in 37 games this season. He was sidelined from April 15 through May 17 because of a sore right shoulder and missed 30 games during that stretch. Toronto acquired Encarnacion from Cincinnati in a four-player deal at the trade deadline last year. He has a career .257 average with 88 home runs and 308 RBI.

The Toronto Blue Jays sent Edwin Encarnacion to the minors on Sunday. After several years in the majors it must be a major blow to his ego. However disappointed Encarnacion may be, this demotion may ultimately be the best thing for him. He is still young and still holds the potential to become an excellent power-hitting third baseman.

To replace Encarnacion on the 25-man roster, the Blue Jays have recalled 27-year old Jarrett Hoffpauir. Hoffpauir grew up in the St. Louis Cardinals' system. He was fairly successful in a short stint with the major league last year. He hit .250/.438/.417 with one homer in 16 plate appearances. His career minor league line is .288/.366/.427 in 2,509 at-bats. Those are not superstar numbers but they show competence with the bat.

Older players like Hoffpauir typically need to hit well immediately to extend their opportunities. In this case it is more likely to be bad defense than a weak bat that keeps Hoffpauir on the bench. However, in AL-only leagues I think Hoffpauir represents a good risk. He should get to play a few games right away. If he can play decent defense, manager Cito Gaston will have no reason to sit him in favor of the slumping Jose Bautista.

The Secrets of Sustained Success

Ron Shandler recently wrote a couple of articles devoted to uncovering the formula for consistent success in Fantasy Baseball. He broke fantasy success down to six variables and polled fans and his fellow experts to weigh the importance of each. I won't reveal all of Ron's conclusions. The articles were part of a free preview (I'm not certain if that is still available or not but here are the links):

The Formula for Consistent Success - Part One

The Formula for Consistent Success - Part Two

I find this to be an interesting topic for discussion. In leagues of relative equals (in baseball knowledge and fantasy tactics) any owner can win in a given season. The true challenge is winning year after year after year. This is about finding the key to that sustained success.

1. Better player projections: I do not believe that the difference between occasional success and consistent success has much, if anything, to do with the difference between most sets of projections. I am certain there are some horrible projections available. However, smart owners are probably choosing from the more established options. If you are using projections from Baseball HQ, RotoWorld, RotoWire, Mastersball, Yahoo, ESPN, The Sporting News, Fantasy Pros 911 or any of a dozen others, you are doing just fine.

The key here is to use a set of projections that you can familiarize yourself with well before your draft or auction. You should have at least a general idea of how the projections were generated. It could be a complex formula that incorporates dozens of performance indicators and multiple computer generated algorithms or it could be as simple as weighted three-year averages. As long as you know and understand the process enough to vary from it when it seems logical.

2. Better grasp of contextual elements that affected players: This is the variable that is most important to me. This is how you manage to draft Carlos Silva, Ben Zobrist, Ryan Ludwick, and so forth from year to year. This is also how you know that the Braves will go with Jason Heyward to start the season and that Mike Stanton will have to wait, regardless of their spring performances. This is how you understand that Brandon Wood will get an extended opportunity and Chris Davis will not.

Owners need to know managers and general managers and their tendencies. Every owner who hopes to have consistent success should understand how each team utilizes players on the major league roster and in the minors. You should know which players are likely to be traded and which are virtually untouchable and why. The best owners instinctively know what teams are planning to do in any given situation based on their history and trends.

3. Better sense of value: It is essential that owners know how much a player is worth in their individual league. But it goes beyond knowing that Albert Pujols is typically worth $45. You need to know the value your league places on him as well. If your league refuses to pay more than $40 for any player being willing to say $41 could be a monstrous advantage to you.

Every league has subtle differences in the players they value. My local leagues, the MPRL (American League Only) and CGRL (National League Only) tend to over value the top prospects and young players. They also pay top dollar for the studs, leaving the boring veterans in the middle as excellent bargains. If this is news to you go back to your leagues draft or auction and examine the record for trends you may be able to exploit next season.

4. Better in-draft strategy and tactics: Owners should go into every draft or auction with a plan. While it is not always a good idea to target certain players, many of the best owners I have known plan to acquire players within small groups of the similarly skilled. They also have back-up plans. They exactly what they will do if plan A is not working out. It may not surprise you that this is the area that Shandler's group of experts collectively assigned the most importance.

This is an area I need to strengthen in my own game. I am good at establishing a plan of action. I always have a well-worked plan. My weakness has always been adjusting when things do not go as planned. When plan-A fails I start to take too many chances. I tend to embrace so much risk that winning becomes almost impossible unless I am incredibly lucky. Fortunately, this doesn't happen to me often but it did happen to me in several drafts this season. Owners should always be prepared when things go awry. It happens to everyone.

5. Better in-season roster management: This encompasses FAAB bidding, trades, pick-ups, use of your reserve roster, activating minor leaguers, and replacing disabled players. If your league allows free pick-ups and the constant churning of your roster - this can become the most crucial element in winning. In contrast, if your league allows very little in the way of roster changes this is almost irrelevant and your draft becomes that much more important.

One of the best ways to keep up with your leagues is to set aside a regular block of time everyday to review your leagues. This can be quite quick if you are doing it everyday. I have the bad habit of skipping the review of teams I am less concerned about (no money involved usually). It typically starts with a time cruch and I put things off and a day becomes a week, becomes a month, and so on. I plan on doing better with this in the future by not being in quite so many leagues.

6. Better luck: Any idiot can get lucky and win a fantasy league. Luck plays a huge part in every league. Most of the time injuries, suspensions, slow starts, and off years are just bad luck. Or you might get lucky by picking up Livan Hernandez to ride his hot streak and finding that it lasts the entire season. but luck is not entirely random, you can create your own good or bad luck.

Drafting Mark Teixeira knowing he starts slow is one thing, drafting him, Grady Sizemore coming off an injury, Milton Bradley, Chris Davis, Brandon Wood and Ken Griffey Jr. onto the same team was just asking for trouble. You can often avoid massive amounts of bad luck by using your head in most cases. Know the injury history of your players and don't place too much risk onto one roster.

Good owners will also give themselves the chance to get lucky. Playing it safe will not usually result in a fantasy championship but it requires a smart balance. If you realized that Chris Davis would get the hook if he started slow, using a reserve pick on Justin Smoak is a great risk.

What do think is most important to consistent success?

Felix Doubront, the Next Red Sox Ace?

Felix Doubront has come on strong his last two seasons in the Red Sox organization. Doubront was signed out of Venezuela in 2004. He progressed slowly but steadily through the system putting up mostly good but not great numbers. The last two seasons things have started to click for him and he has emerged as a top prospect.

Doubront is making his major league debut today primarily due to the DL-stints of Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka. However, he also deserved the promotion because of his very good numbers at triple-A this season. He has a 2.11 ERA in 12 starts between Double-A and Triple-A this season, with 54 strikeouts, 22 walks and no homers allowed in 59 2/3 innings. He gets to face Manny Ramirez in his return to Fenway Park.

From Red Sox Prospects:

Doubront utilizes a 91-94 mph fastball, a very good 79-81 mph changeup with screwball action, and a developing mid-70s curveball. Flawless and fluid downward pitching motion with excellent control. Deceptive delivery, hitters don't pick up the ball until late, causing his fastball to look a little faster. Used to struggle against left-handed batters, but seemed to fix this issue in 2009. He has a reserved and modest demeanor, but is aggressive and poised on the mound. Sometimes has the tendency to leave the ball up in the zone too much, giving up too many home runs. Athletic and agile in the field. Doubront struggled in 2007 due to numerous injuries, including recovery from a hernia operation.

Doubront should be worth an add in AL-only leagues. He isn't likely to be great in mixed leagues just yet. He will probably go back to the minors when Dice-K comes off the disabled list.