Nailing Down the Arizona Closer Situation

After waiting entirely too long, Arizona Diamondbacks manager A.J. Hinch decided to remove Chad Qualls from the closer role. For the moment we are expected to believe that Aaron Heilman is the new closer. However, the D'Backs have been hesitant to place Heilman in that role. Their reasoning is not clear. Most of the bullpen has struggled and it is possible they find him more valuable in a set-up role.

Hinch added to the confusion Wednesday night by bringing Heilman into the game in the eighth inning when his team trailed 6-4. While it is true that Heilman needed the work, the result of the outing casts doubt on Heilman's hold on the job. He allowed four baserunners and two runs to score in one inning of work.

I believe that Sam Demel will be closing in Arizona in the second half. I was going to write more about Sam Demel. The D'backs just acquired him in the Connor Jackson trade. But Jason Grey has already done the job many times better than I ever could so I'll just link and sample him here.

A third-round pick in the 2007 draft (one pick after the Chicago White Sox drafted current Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher John Ely), Demel both started and closed in college at TCU, but the 6-foot right-hander has been viewed strictly as a reliever in the pros. The A's have drafted a number of hard-throwing relief arms in recent years (Demel, Andrew Bailey, Jeff Gray, Jared Lansford, Andrew Carignan) in the hopes that some of them pick up the necessary secondary pitches and/or command to stick in the majors...

...In terms of his fantasy value, the main thing to talk about with Demel in the short term is opportunity, as the D-backs are looking for someone, anyone, to step up in the later innings. Aaron Heilman is getting a chance to run with the ball for the moment in the ninth, almost by default. But Heilman has had far more success against left-handed hitters this year thanks to his changeup; his ability to get tough righties out in the ninth is still in question. The expectation is that Demel could quickly find his way to some high-pressure situations if he adapts well to the major leagues.

Read the rest of the article for a great write-up of his skills and ability as a pitcher. As Jason points out the key is that Demel has a huge opportunity to work his way into the role quickly. The rest of the Arizona bullpen has been horrible. There is no one (with the exception of Heilman and a possible return to Qualls at some point) in the way of Demel becoming the closer. He should be picked up by any owner in any type of league where saves are at a premium.

Jose Tabata and Brad Lincoln Bolster the Bucs

Today the Pittsburgh Pirates may be taking a significant step into their future. Outfield prospect Jose Tabata and long-time pitching prospect Brad Lincoln will make their 2010 Major League debuts today against the Washington Nationals. Pirates fans deserve some good news after suffering through the much-hyped decimation of their lineup by Stephen Strasburg during his Major League debut last night.

Jose Tabata became famous as a New York Yankees prospect. It is quite possible that no one would recognize his name without that claim to fame. He was sent to Pittsburgh in exchange for Xavier Nady in 2008. Though he has not developed the power the Yankees expected he has strengthened other areas of his game. In 217 triple-A at-bats Tabata has a line of .323/.384/.442 with three homeruns. Tabata hits the ball on the ground more than 60 percent of his balls in play. That should explain his lack of power numbers. You cannot hit the ball out of the park if it rolls through the infield. He has 25 stolen bases this season and only 6cs so speed has become his game as far as fantasy owners are concerned. He still owns the power potential but it will take some serious re-working of his swing mechanics to bring it out. I expect the Pirates are not very interested in that kind of project. I expect Tabata will soon be owned in most leagues for his stolen base potential.

Brad Lincoln has not been the same pitcher since undergoing Tommy John Surgery in 2007. However, he has returned as a different but still effective pitcher. He has decent strikeout numbers in the minors (7.17 K9) but is far from elite. He is not a groundball pitcher (42.6 percent) but has done a decent job keeping the ball in the park. Lincoln was once considered a potential ace. He has not regained that sort of projection but it remains a possibility. I would suggest fantasy owners pick him up only if they are desperate for a good starter or have the room to stash him if he struggles.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are getting better by small degrees. They still have a long way to go.

A Big Day For Baseball's Future - Strasburg and Stanton Debut

Today is a big day for baseball. Stephen Strasburg makes his debut with the Washington Nationals against the Pittsburgh Pirates. The game will be shown on the MLB Network tonight and I'm betting every baseball fan in the country will be tuning in. However, there is more making this an exciting day for baseball. Michael Stanton will be making his major league debut with the Florida Marlins. The only fans not watching Strasburg tonight will be Stanton's fantasy owners who are tuning into Stanton's debut against the Philadelphia Phillies.

Stephen Strasburg

Stephen Strasburg has thrown 57.3 innings with a 2.04 FIP in the minors. He is not just a strikeout pitcher. In addition to his 10.20 K9 (combined Double-A and Triple-A) he also owns a 64.9 groundball percentage. He's probably been ready to pitch in the majors for more than a year. But without his stint in the minors his first MLB start would not have nearly the impact on baseball and Washington Nationals that it will tonight. I expect him to pitch well. He won't necessarily be Tim Lincecum right off the bat. He will be facing the very best hitters in the world now. Even the Pirates are better than anything he saw in the minors or in college.

Michael Stanton

In 189 at-bats in Double-A, Stanton has hit .312/.443/.730 with a .328 BABIP. He has nice batted ball splits, more than 50 percent of his batted balls are fly balls. He kills lefties but does not have handedness issues. He has hit much better at home than on the road. This has led some to believe he is the product of a nice home environment but I don't buy that and neither do the Marlins. He could probably do with a little time at triple -A (and hell, he may still get it) but I think he will hit for a decent batting average and tons of power. He is still available in a lot of leagues. You should pick him up right now, you may not have the chance again.

2010 MLB Draft

The draft continues today. You can check it out in progress at MLB.com/live. Yesterday had a few surprises including Bryce Harper being announced as an outfielder rather than a catcher. The Chicago Cubs went their own way by drafting Hayden Simpson. Zigging when they Zag has been the habit of Scouting Director Tim Wilken.

Tim described the kid physically as a cross between Roy Oswalt and Tim Lincecum while acknowledging he has a long way to go to reach that status. Like Lincecum, Simpson said on a conference call tonight that he uses his whole body to pitch, easing stress on the arm.

The 21-year-old Simpson was 13-1 this year with a 1.81 ERA in Division II ball. Simpson said his best pitch is his slider and that he also possesses a four-seam fastball, a circle change and a 12-to-6 curveball.

The New York Yankees stunned many by drafting high school shortstop/RHP Cito Culver with the 32nd pick of the draft. He is an okay prospect. He was just picked about 100 names earlier than anyone expected.

On the mound, he was 90-91, which really isn’t bad for a guy with that kind of frame. What you didn’t see with Culver was a lot of physical projection for height, which would make his future as a right-handed pitcher pretty nominal. On one play, a kid fouled a pitch back behind the screen. Culver came off the mound, full speed, and caught up to his catcher deep in foul territory. It was a throwaway play to some scouts, but it showed me reflexes, his first step and his acceleration. The guy is an athlete.

One of my favorite picks of the draft went to the Atlanta Braves. Scouting Director Tony DeMacio selected Matt Lipka, a high school shortstop from Texas. The Braves project him as their future leadoff hitter.

When DeMacio went to suburban Dallas' McKinney High School last month, he was thoroughly impressed with the cerebral approach taken by an athletic shortstop whose will to win complimented the speed that had made him such a threat as a leadoff hitter and two-time Class 4-A All-State wide receiver in the football hotbed of Texas. Thus when it came time for the Braves to make their first selection, the 35th overall, in this year's First Year Player Draft on Monday night, DeMacio confidently selected Matt Lipka, the 18-year-old shortstop who had developed into one of the two multi-sport superstars that made McKinney High a popular destination this past year for college-football recruiters and baseball scouts. "He's a kid that's going to show up for you every day," DeMacio said. "He's going to make everybody else better around him. He's a winning-type guy. He's just a great, great young man and we're just very pleased to have him."

Check out Position Reviews at the Football Site

Over at Advanced Fantasy Football (its still pretty new, so be nice) I have just begun running a series of NFL Position Reviews written by Bob Lung of BigGuyFantasySports.com. Bob uses Quality Game Scores to measure player consistency. If you've ever led your Fantasy Football League in overall points and failed to make the playoffs, you will want to read this. Here's a small sample:

Read the Rest at Advanced Fantasy Football

So, let us start with the first tier of wide receivers ranked by their Quality Game Success Rate.

TIER ONE

Player Name	Total Points	Pts Rank	Total QG	Total GP	QG Success Rate
Larry Fitzgerald	187.20	5	12	16	75%
DeSean Jackson	189.40	4	11	15	73%
Wes Welker	162.40	12	10	14	71%
Miles Austin	197.80	3	11	16	69%

The top tier of consistent wide receivers for 2009 consists of wide receivers that had a 69% - 75 percent QGSR (Quality Game Success Rate). Only four receivers met our criteria during the 2009 season. That may seem like a very small group. However, in 2008 the top tier of wide receivers with a 69 percent or higher QGSR included six players.

Many fantasy players new to Quality Game Scores (i.e., consistency factor) expect the most consistent wide receivers to also lead the position in overall fantasy points. As you can see, they are not. Wes Welker ranked 12th overall, while the other three receivers ranked third, fourth and fifth. The top two overall receivers did not earn a Quality Game Score more than 70 percent of the time. The recent trend of teams spreading the ball around to multiple receivers (an effort to stop teams from double-teaming the studs) appears to be working for the real teams, but not the fantasy teams.

Read the Rest at Advanced Fantasy Football

Watch the MLB Draft While You Work!

You can watch all four days of MLB's 2010 Amateur Draft this week. It starts today at Noon (WHOOPS! Day One starts at 7pm but the rest of the week coverage starts at Noon) and will be covered by the MLB Network (just the first round) and online at MLB.com/live (the entire draft). For fantasy owners this may be an opportunity to gain an advantage over your league-mates who do not watch. Some of the names you hear over the next four days will not be heard again for a couple of years. Knowing them ahead of time will allow you to beat the hype.

MLB.com has video and small write-ups on tons of the potential draft picks. I think I'm going to have just as much fun watching the MLB draft as I do watching the NFL Draft. Maybe more, considering how much I love baseball and following prospects.

***

So, the reason I've gone through a slow period is I lost another job. It sapped my motivation just as the season was starting. Thankfully, I seem to be moving past my Blue Period. I have a ton of ideas that with any luck will see the light of day in the next few weeks. As George Constanza might say, "I'm back, Baby!"

Selig Speaks on Instant Re-Play

Obviously Armando Galarraga pitched a perfect game on Wednesday night but he will never get credit for it. The man has shown tremendous class in accepting the outcome without anger or bitterness towards umpire Jim Joyce. Galarraga is a true sportsman.


Baseball Commissioner Allan H. (Bud) Selig issued the following statement regarding last night's game in Detroit:

"First, on behalf of Major League Baseball, I congratulate Armando Galarraga on a remarkable pitching performance. All of us who love the game appreciate the historic nature of his effort last night.

"The dignity and class of the entire Detroit Tigers organization under such circumstances were truly admirable and embodied good sportsmanship of the highest order. Armando and Detroit manager Jim Leyland are to be commended for their handling of a very difficult situation. I also applaud the courage of umpire Jim Joyce to address this unfortunate situation honestly and directly. Jim's candor illustrates why he has earned the respect of on-field personnel throughout his accomplished career in the Major Leagues since 1989.

"As Jim Joyce said in his postgame comments, there is no dispute that last night's game should have ended differently. While the human element has always been an integral part of baseball, it is vital that mistakes on the field be addressed. Given last night's call and other recent events, I will examine our umpiring system, the expanded use of instant replay and all other related features. Before I announce any decisions, I will consult with all appropriate parties, including our two unions and the Special Committee for On-Field Matters, which consists of field managers, general managers, club owners and presidents."

The Rise of Francisco Cervelli

Photo from fOTOGLIF

Jorge Posada is out for the next few weeks with a hairline fracture in his foot. Posada suffered the injury on Sunday when a foul tip off the bat of Michael Cuddyer struck him on the foot. Top catching prospect Jesus Montero is not quite ready to replace him. The Yankees already have Juan Miranda on the roster and I am positive he will benefit from Posada's absence, but the player that I would grab would be Francisco Cervelli.

Cervelli will not hit for a ton of power or steal any bases. However, he has improving plate discipline, the patience to take walks and low strikeout rates over his career in the majors and minors. He should hit for a strong batting average and by virtue of being in the Yankees lineup will pile up the runs and RBI.

From MLB.com:

Girardi said he foresees Francisco Cervelli continuing to get the majority of at-bats in place of Posada. Cervelli has already made a good impression this season in his 17 starts, batting .375. He hit .298 last season in two starts.

"Jorge has been a leader," Girardi said. "It's something that we dealt with last year. [Kevin] Cash and [Cervelli] came up big and did a good job, and we're going to need someone else to come in and do a good job for us."