A Quick Guide to Calculating Inflation and Preparing a Freeze List

What is the deal with inflation in fantasy leagues? Though the math is relatively simple, inflation in fantasy leagues is one of those things that never fails to confuse and even irritate fantasy owners. Many owners do not bother to calculate it, with varying levels of success. However I think it is important to do so.

Some Terms to understand

Cost - The dollar amount attached to a player on a roster. (Albert Pujols cost $40)
Value - The amount a player is worth to a team in your league. (Albert Pujols is valued at $51 by BaseballHQ)
Profit - The difference between a players Cost and his Value. (If Pujols cost $40 and is valued at $51 his profit is $11)

What is Draft Inflation
Draft inflation is the cost beyond a players perceived value in an auction caused by budget dollars that exceed the value of the available player pool. A player's inflated value is his projected price on draft/auction day with inflation accounted for. It is important to know this value so you can properly evaluate what it will take to purchase a given player. It will also alert you to potential bargains and warn you of potential pitfalls during your auction.

When to Calculate Inflation
It is smart to calculate inflation frequently because it will change. First an estimated inflation should be calculated before you declare your keepers. This will give you a bit more information on the available player pool and the cost of the players you need and could convince you to change your keeper list. Inflation should be calculated again when the actual freeze rosters are announced. This is the most crucial calculation and will advance your auction prep. Inflation should also be calculated as frequently as possible during your auction. Inflation will change with each player acquisition. I elaborate on in-draft inflation below.

Things to consider before declaring your keepers in an Auction League

• Not every low-priced player is worth keeping. Treat every roster spot like gold.
• Having the best built-in profit going into the draft is nice, but having the most built in value (at the right prices) is more important.
  
• Is there depth in the player pool (or a lack) that might make a certain player worth keeping (or not)?
  
• Don't look for balance in your keeper list, instead look to maximize value.
  
• Consider the long term value of your players and also their cost as they develop. It may be more effective to place a player back into the draft and buy them at a higher price in exchange for a longer contract.
  

How to Calculate Inflation
Inflation equals (money to spend) divided by (value of remaining talent). Multiply each free agent player’s individual value by this amount and you will have the inflated value of each player. Some owners choose to make separate inflation calculations for pitchers and hitters.

In a standard 12-team auction league, with 23-man rosters and a $260 salary cap, there is a total of $3,120 to spend on 276 players. If the owners in our keeper league decide to freeze players with salaries totaling $1,000 but with a projected value of $1,500, then the players remaining in the player pool have a projected value of $1.620. However, the owners now have an extra $500, giving our owners $2,120 to spend on players worth just $1,620. We calculate our inflation by taking the money left to spend divided by the value of the remaining talent or $2,120/$1,620. This results in an inflation of 1.3086, or 31 percent. So if Pujols is valued at $51 and inflation is 31 percent, Pujols has an inflated value of 66.7386 or $67. So if Pujols is the first player called in the above scenario anything less than $67 spent on him should be considered a bargain.

The Per-Player Budget
An essential part of any auction strategy is the per-player budget. This is simply a guideline to the types of players you wish to acquire. On a piece of paper, list the positions required on each roster. Then fill in the names and salaries of anyone on your freeze list (if this is not a keeper league, then you get to skip that step). Next, divide your player acquisition budget amongst the slots with the approximate amounts it will take to roster the players you wish to own. A top outfielder may cost $40, a top-tier closer may go for $35. When all the slots are full and they total the amount you actually have left to spend, you will have completed your per player budget. Spend some time familiarizing yourself with the various players that might fit into these slots, but don’t become too attached to any one player or you could find yourself overbidding to get him.

A proper budget ensures that your team will acquire at least its fair share of the available talent. If there is $1,620 worth of talent available for 12 teams and we assume the freeze lists hold equal amounts of talent (a horrible assumption, I know) each owner must acquire at least $135 worth of talent to stay equal to their rivals. Thus, you must strive to use your remaining money to acquire talent as far exceeding that amount as possible.

In-Draft Inflation
Every auction has moments when players are either being overpriced or going at bargain prices. It is vital to your success that you understand when these periods are happening. In-draft inflation can be tricky to get a handle of when you are trying to track your draft and the rosters of your opponents. The easy way to monitor it is to use a program like RotoLab or Diamond Draft. The software will track the inflation in your auction every step of the way.

However, if you are forced to calculate it by hand, you can use my convenient shortcut. After the first player purchase, jot down how much above or below value (according to your projections) that player was. Do the same for every player that follows – adding or subtracting the difference in dollars. This will leave you with a running tally of how much above or below value the auction is at any given moment. If the number is a large positive value, then players have been overpriced and bargains are about to ensue. If the number is a large negative, the players have been bargains and the correction is coming soon. If the total stays at or just above or below zero, players are going almost exactly as you projected.

An Example from the Mailbag
I received the following e-mail from a reader. The message has been slightly edited and the names changed to protect the innocent...

I had an amazing team last year and was crushing my league all season until a traumatizing final day of the season comeback by the guy in second place where he gained 8 points and I lost 3...

In our league we can select 4 players to keep. Traditional logic would say that I should keep Wandy Rodriguez ($1) Ubaldo ($1) Tommy Hanson ($3) and Aaron Hill (3$) because they would give me the greatest relative value. However I also have on my team Pujols ($38) Kemp ($25) Ellsbury ($18) and Longoria ($25) who would all present some savings but not as much as the previous 4 I mentioned.

The league also has another weird rule that says that new teams are allowed to select any 4 players who were on a teams roster last year but not kept. I feel like if I go for the first 4 players I mentioned I would be doing well value wise, but the 2 new incoming managers would almost certainly keep the latter 4 who are all superior players but provide less value. How would you pick?

Thanks,
XXXXXX

This does look like a tough decision. The first step is to look at the projected value of each of our potential keepers. (Values are from BaseballHQ.com)

	Player	Cost	Proj. Value	Profit
	Wandy Rodriguez	1	27	26
	Ubaldo Jimenez	1	23	22
	Tommy Hanson	3	23	20
	Aaron Hill	3	17	14
	Albert Pujols	38	44	6
	Matt Kemp	25	38	13
	Jacoby Ellsbury	18	31	13
	Evan Longoria	25	26	1

If we were interested in having the greatest built-in profit we would keep Wandy Rodriguez, Ubaldo Jimenez, Tommy Hanson, and Aaron Hill just as our reader suggested. They combine for a cost of just $8 with a collective value of $90 and a profit of $82. That is a pretty nice group of players to have. But is it the best group?

If we take the four most valuable players we would take Albert Pujols, Matt Kemp, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Wandy Rodriguez. Their combined cost would be much higher at $82 but with a collective value of $140 and profit of $58. This is also a good group. But is it more valuable to have $74 more dollars to spend or $50 more value or $24 more profit? This is a tough question to answer without knowing the league more intimately and having more details on the available player pool.

You could attempt to build a combination of players but I believe the second group is the way to go. The only change I'd be tempted to make would be to substitute Ubaldo Jimenez for Jacoby Ellsbury. This is based on my belief that cheap steals will be relatively easy to come by this season. As you will see when I release the All-Sleeper Teams later this week.

Spring Training is Here!

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Despite the bitter cold winds and the snow still on the ground, it feels like spring. Baseball is back. Not that it actually goes anywhere for those of us who are really into this stuff. I haven't posted as much as I would have liked to the last few weeks but trust me that I have a lot of work almost ready to go. So make sure you have subscribed to the RSS Feed, signed up for the free e-mails (check the sidebar), or just keep coming back everyday. You won't want to miss the sleepers, the mounds of draft prep I have for you, an article on calculating inflation and lots more.

Check out these cool sites that can advanced your fantasy prep immensely:

RotoBase.com (All the stats you need on a player in one place)

MLBDepthCharts.com (All the roster news and information you need)

RotoJunkie.com (The ultimate Fantasy Baseball Message Board)

Sabermetrics to Remain in Public Domain

Sabermetrics to Remain in Public Domain

On February 3, 2010, Deep Focus, Inc. withdrew its application to trademark the term “sabermetrics” for social media consulting services.

Sabermetrics was coined by statistician Bill James, who first introduced the word to readers of his Abstract in March 1980, writing: “Sabermetrics is the mathematical and statistical analysis of baseball records.” Since that time, sabermetrics has become a ubiquitous part of the baseball landscape at all levels and by players, front office staff, the media, and fans alike. Most major league teams use sabermetrically derived statistics as part of their player evaluations. Members of the Baseball Writers Association of America and others who report on baseball refer to sabermetrics and its metrics on a regular basis. Recently James has said that sabermetrics is a “declaration of no ownership of knowledge.”

“SABR appreciates that Deep Focus has seen the value of keeping the term ‘sabermetrics’ in the public domain,” said Executive Director John Zajc. “We now understand that there was no intent to restrict free use of the word, and we are glad that they respect that free use of the word benefits everyone.”

“The intent to use the term ‘sabermetrics’ was solely to describe our approach to evaluating engagement within social media, and not to own the term outright. In no way did we mean to restrict others’ use of the word,” said Deep Focus’ CEO Ian Schafer. “We are fans of the game and fans of the sabermetric approach of statistical evaluation. We owe great thanks to Bill James and other sabermetricians for inspiring us to think more objectively about performance.”

The Society for American Baseball Research is an international, member-driven organization whose mission is to foster the research, preservation, and dissemination of the history and record of baseball. More information is available on SABR’s website at: www.sabr.org.

Deep Focus is a leading full-service interactive marketing agency focused on measurable, results-driven engagement. More information is available on Deep Focus’ website at: www.deep-focus.net.

Directing the Super Bowl

Hat Tip to Go Into the Story

2010 Sleeper Alert: Francisco Liriano

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After his 2006 season it seemed certain that Francisco Liriano would never again be put into the category of a sleeper pick. However, after his 2009 performance (5.80/4.87 ERA/FIP) that is exactly what he is. In fact, most owners have been down on him according to early mock drafts. But that is changing, mostly due to Liriano's stunning performance in the Dominican Winter League for Leones del Escogido. Dominican League statistics are hard to come by but at the end of last week Liriano was in the midst of an impressive streak that included 26 and 2/3 scoreless innings and 35 strikeouts in 27 and 2/3 innings. Last night he struck out 10 batters over five scoreless innings against Gigantes del Cibao to claim the Dominican League title in the deciding ninth game of the series at Julian Javier Stadium in San Francisco de Macorís. He allowed just one hit and improved to 3-1 with a 0.49 ERA. This brought his season totals to 47 strikeouts in just 37 innings.

If I was ever off Liriano's bandwagon, I am clearly back on it. In 2009 Liriano suffered through what the Minnesota Twins labeled Elbow Fatigue, which led to some swelling in his forearm, that led to his DL stint. Some player take more time than others to recover from injury. It is very possible that Liriano simply came back too soon, and put too much stress on his Tommy John repaired elbow. This season he will be more than two years removed and judging by his recent performances in the Dominican he has got that special something back. Combine this good news with the Twins' improved infield defense and the new stadium (with real grass) that should benefit pitchers and the possibilities are soaring.

However owners should still exercise caution in drafting Liriano, who has to be considered injury prone. Still, he should be squarely in every owner's radar. When you're considering the John Maines, Aaron Harangs, and for your fantasy roster you may want to check on the availibility of the Twins young lefty first.

Other opinions on Francisco Liriano:

David Golebiewski of Fangraghs.com - Don’t forget Liriano. Exasperating as he is, he figures to post an ERA in the low-to-mid four’s in 2010. He’ll be back. That fastball needs an upgrade, however, if he hopes to terminate opposing batters.

Tim Brown of Yahoo.com - While at first glance the White Sox and Tigers have the better starting rotations in the Central, Francisco Liriano will be pivotal. Reports out of the Dominican Republic say Liriano has regained his velocity and the late bite on his slider. The Twins are eager to see for themselves. In the meantime, he’s behind Nick Blackburn, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey and Carl Pavano, and battling Brian Duensing and Glen Perkins for the fifth place in the rotation.

NBC Sports/ Rotoworld - Liriano looked incredibly sharp, hitting 95 MPH consistently with his fastball and displaying a tight break on his slider. The 26-year-old lefty had a lousy 2009 campaign, but the Twins have to be pleased with the way he looked tonight. Liriano should have no trouble climbing back into the club's starting rotation with a strong spring and is quickly turning into a legitimate fantasy sleeper. We all know what kind of dominance he's capable of.

A Few Players I Will Not Own in 2010 (that you probably will)

There are plenty of sites out there producing sleeper lists. There are plenty of lists available to tell you which players are injury prone, and which players were exceptionally lucky. Unfortunately, even if these lists were ever more than 70 percent accurate they would not cover the most frustrating portion of the player population. I am refering to the players that drop off the map with very few warning signs. That these players exist is why I try so hard to consider more than just scouting reports and statistics. The human elements such as player environments, and situations that may result in distractions or even worse.

This is hardly a complete list. Any player could drop off completely without warning. But these are players who I have decided I will pass on in 2010 for various reasons. I am not suggesting that they'll be worthless in 2010 or even close to that. I am suggesting that the risk is higher than you may think. I prefer to avoid these players than to hope to get lucky with them.

Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit Tigers
To be honest I've been growing more and more down on Miguel Cabrera for a while. Don't worry, I have been called crazy before and I'll get over it. We are still friends here. I've been told by more than one person whose opinion I respected that my opinions on Cabrera are subjective and not based on real statistical evidence. They are not wrong. But I call it trusting my eyes, ears, and instincts. If you look at Cabrera's statistics there is not a single sign of impending disaster, but there are other types of signs. I should qualify this by sharing that if Cabrera was going to come at a severe discount I might roster him. Raise your hand if you think I can draft Cabrera for less than $30? When I spend $40 bucks or the draft equivalent on a player I want it to come with significantly less risk.

Cabrera is showing signs of complacency. His drive to achieve more in his career seems to be fading. He may not be fat but he's getting softer. I know a potential fat guy when I see him, trust me. In his last 20 games before the showdown against the Twins, Cabrera hit just .244. He is also getting in trouble more often. Two violent drinking related incidents this year that could easily have led to criminal charges.

Television station WXYZ obtained a police report from an alleged incident the preceding August, in which Cabrera was involved in a verbal altercation with diners at a restaurant inside the Townsend. Witnesses say Cabrera threatened to fight the group outside and indicated that he had a gun. Restaurant employees asked Cabrera to leave and police were called. There was no weapon in Cabrera's vehicle and Cabrera told team officials he did not own one. Cabrera then told team officials he had been dealing with personal issues and got upset, and the diners ended up dropping the matter.

He was legally drunk the morning before a crucial playoff game. Early morning on October 3, 2009, police were called to the Cabreras' home and took Cabrera in for questioning. Cabrera had come home at 6:00am, after a night of drinking at the nearby Townsend Hotel, and got in an argument with his wife. He was seen later that day at a game at Comerica Park, with scratches on his face. Cabrera told reporters that the scratches came from his dog and refused to discuss the matter further. It was later reported he had a blood alcohol level of .26, three times the legal limit, when tested at the police station. Dave Dombrowski, the general manager of the Tigers, picked him up from the police station around 7:30am—eleven and a half hours before that evening's game in which he went 0–4 with one strikeout and six runners left on base against the Chicago White Sox.

He plays for a team that traded away its most popular player (signed to a fair deal) for prospects in an attempt to reduce its payroll commitments. Cabrera is a hell of a financial commitment and there are many teams that would be interested if he became available. So Cabrera may not forget how to hit but there is enough here to lead me to put my dollars elsewhere.

Roy Oswalt, SP, Houston Astros
I suggested that Roy Oswalt was in decline before the 2009 season began and was old that was an asinine comment. I don't mean to brag, I don't mean to boast but I'm like hot butter on breakfast toast. That means I'm right by the way. I was willing to own Oswalt last season if he came cheap enough, I would not touch him this season with a ten foot pole. I find it funny how you can find so many owners willing to complain about pitcher inconsistency but who get defensive about any attempt to warn them off their favorites.

One of Oswalt's strengths has been his durability. But this is coming to an end. His Innings Pitched is in a four year decline and the degenerative disc in his back is not going to make it any easier for him. With the innings go the strikeout totals. His groundball rate was a five-year low, but that may have been caused by a lack of faith in a lousy infield defense. He was shutdown in September in an attempt to avoid surgery on his back. This is not good news. I am going to pass.

Manny Ramirez, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
Ramirez hit .269 with 13 homers and 43 RBIs in 77 games after returning from his 50-game suspension for failing a random drug test. I am certain that there are those owners willing to blame his poor numbers on a lack of drugs in his system. I would call them ridiculous. Whether you believe Manny was using steroids or not (he still denies it) his 2009 stats fit into the gradual decline Manny has been in for the last few years. I know how good his 2008 totals were. But I submit that they were the result of an unprecedented hot streak. A lucky streak that coincided with moving to the easier league and feeling great about finally escaping from the Boston Red Sox. Manny will be 38 in May, surely you did not believe he would just keep hitting .330 with 40 homers indefinitely?

I do not believe that Manny will be a complete waste of a roster spot in 2010. But the time has come to downgrade our expectations. Manny still has a good batting eye but was less aggressive in 2010, judging by his swinging at far fewer pitches. That could be a lack of confidence which is one of the results I think would be natural for someone who goes through the humiliation of being outed as a drug user. Especially if he then stops to avoid any further embarrassment. But what I worry about most is the combination of these factors and Manny's reputation for nonchalance. I see the worst season of his career coming.

B.J. Upton, OF, Tampa Bay Rays
I should begin by admitting that I have owned this Upton on various teams since he was drafted. I believe in his tools. He could be a great player. But I no longer believe he will be. It is not just that I've been let down by him in the past (if that were the case my infatuation with Corey Patterson, Bobby Hill and others would be long over, ahem...) but not only have signs of growth been few and far between but the Rays are now willing to trade him. They offered him to Toronto for Roy Halladay. The Rays also have Desmond Jennings who has all the tools of Upton plus strike zone judgment. Upton would not be the first tool-laden superstud athlete to fail to become a productive regular player in MLB. I think B.J. Upton is much closer to that fate than to becoming a superstar.

These are mine. Who are yours?

Hot Stove Update: Adrian Beltre to the Boston Red Sox

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The Boston Red Sox have signed third baseman Adrian Beltre to a one year contract worth $9 million in 2010 with a $5 million player option for the 2011 season. No one actually expects Beltre to utilize the player option (unless he gets hurt). The option allows the Red Sox to keep the luxury tax value of the contract to just $7 million per season. This signing instantly reduces the fantasy value of Mike Lowell to nearly zero until he is traded or someone is hurt at a position Lowell can handle. I am nearly certain the Red Sox will give Lowell some at-bats against left-handers but they won't have him in a straight platoon so at-bats will be few and far between.

Beltre completes the Red Sox's makeover of their team defense. The infield now has three (maybe four depending on your opinion of Marco Scutaro at shortstop) legit gold glove candidates. Beltre, Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia are superior defenders. Mike Cameron takes over center field and pushes the speedy Jacoby Ellsbury to left field (yes that is official now). The Red Sox pitching staff should see huge benefits.

Beltre should also play much better offensively in Fenway Park than he did in Safeco Field. He's moving from one of the worst parks for his skill set (right-handed pull hitter) to one of the best parks for his skill set. Dave Allen of fangraphs had a nice article about how Beltre might be better in a more appropriate park. Fantasy owners should be excited about Beltre in a way that you could not be in his years with the Seattle Mariners.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

Did you catch Hulk Hogan's return to the wrestling world last night? He's attempting to become the Vince McMahon of TNA iMPACT. There's a great interview with the Hulkster on FanHouse, if you are the least bit interested in wrestling you should check it out.