Chase Utley Posting Career High Fantasy Stats

Last night, Chase Utley stole his 20th and 21st bases of the season. It is even more impressive than it sounds at this late point in the season, when you consider that we were all at least slightly worried about him coming into the season. It may seem like centuries ago now, but Utley had hip surgery last off season and the earliest reports all predicted that he could miss the first month of the season. Instead Utley was ready on day one and has had another in a string of great (possibly even underrated) seasons. In fact he is on pace to set career highs in Walks, OBP, Home Runs and Stolen Bases.

Utley plays in the middle of the best lineup in the National League. As long as the group of Utley, Ryan Howard, Shane Victorino, Jayson Werth and Raul Ibanez stay together he should continue to have great Run and RBI totals. He is in his prime years as a hitter and should have at least a couple more years before his age starts to show in his stats. His manager obviously doesn't have an issue with Utley stealing bases. How could he when Utley is always successful? That's right, Utley has 21 stolen bases and has not been caught this season. With a consistently high batting average, OBP, SLG, his ability to hit homeruns, steal bases, and stay in the lineup despite everything --how could you do better?

Year	Team	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2003	PHI	43	134	13	32	10	1	2	21	11	22	2	0	.239	.322	.373	.696
2004	PHI	94	267	36	71	11	2	13	57	15	40	4	1	.266	.308	.468	.776
2005	PHI	147	543	93	158	39	6	28	105	69	109	16	3	.291	.376	.540	.915
2006	PHI	160	658	131	203	40	4	32	102	63	132	15	4	.309	.379	.527	.906
2007	PHI	132	530	104	176	48	5	22	103	50	89	9	1	.332	.410	.566	.976
2008	PHI	159	607	113	177	41	4	33	104	64	104	14	2	.292	.380	.535	.915
2009	PHI	140	511	102	151	27	2	31	90	83	98	21	0	.296	.414	.538	.952

Utley's incredible production and his own only slightly diminished production must put the mind of Alex Rodriguez to rest. A-Rod had a temporary procedure done, a patch of sorts, to allow him to play through a hip injury very similar to Utley's. In April, I did not have high hopes for A-Rod based on the temporary nature of the fix and the simultaneous steroid controversy that was raging at the time. Obviously, I mis-judged both Rodriguez and his chances at a productive season. I now have considerably more faith that A-Rod will emerge from his off-season surgery (the real fix) as productive as he ever was.

Chase Utley is a worthy first round pick for fantasy owners in almost any kind of league. I would have no problem taking him in the top ten and even in the top three just after Albert Pujols and Hanley Ramirez. His position puts him ahead of Ryan Braun, Miguel Cabrera, Cecil Fielder and even AFB favorite --Matt Kemp. Joe Mauer is also approaching this territory for me but I'm not quite sold on jis ability to repeat his power numbers yet.

Here is how Yahoo ranks the Top 25 Fantasy Players coming down the stretch:

1) Albert Pujols 1B St. Louis Cardinals
2) Hanley Ramirez SS Florida Marlins
3) Tim Lincecum SP San Francisco Giants
4) Dan Haren SP Arizona Diamondbacks
5) Zack Grienke SP Kansas City Royals
6) Ryan Braun OF Milwaukee Brewers
7) Prince Fielder 1B Milwaukee Brewers
8) Matt Kemp OF Los Angeles Dodgers
9) Joe Mauer C Minnesota Twins
10) Chase Utley 2B Philadelphia Phillies
11) Mark Reynolds 3B Arizona Diamondbacks
12) Chris Carpenter SP St. Louis Cardinals
13) Derek Jeter SS New York Yankees
14) Javier Vazquez SP Atlanta Braves
15) Felix Hernandez SP Seattle Mariners
16) Miguel Cabrera 1B Detroit Tigers
17) Carl Crawford OF Tampa Bay Rays
18) Matt Holliday OF St. Louis Cardinals (This one deserves a post of its own)
19) Ryan Howard 1B Philadelphia Phillies
20) Mark Teixeira 1B New York Yankees
21) Adam Wainwright SP St. Louis Cardinals
22) Bobby Abreu OF Los Angeles Angels
23) Justin Verlander SP Detroit Tigers
24) Roy Halladay SP Toronto Blue Jays
25) Derrek Lee 1B Chicago Cubs

Brian Fuentes Demoted? Matt Kemp Rising! Tomko Dealing?!?!

To baseball in a minute. Has anyone out there seen Whiteout yet? Its based on this Graphic Noveland stars Kate Beckinsale. It has to be worth seeing, right?



Los Angeles Angels manager, Mike Scioscia, is calling Kevin Jepsen a co-closer to Brian Fuentes. "Both guys have been an important part of the back end of the bullpen," Scioscia said on Monday night. "But if there are some matches that could be advantageous [to use Jepsen], we will try to take advantage of [them]." Jepsen is probably gone in deeper leagues but any Fuentes owners still in contention should be checking the waiver wires. I doubt this is a situation that would continue into 2010 but it may be worth grabbing Jepsen in keeper leagues where he is still available. You never know.

I think the St. Louis Cardinals made a serious mistake this season. While I love Matt Holiday and his impact on the Cards playoff chances is undeniable, they should have found a way to do it without losing top prospect Brett Wallace. The Athletics had to deal Holiday. They had no shot at retaining him and offering a player like Holiday arbitration in uncertain financial times can be extremely risky. Wallace may not be a stellar defensive player at third base. He may not even be average. But to dump him when your team has such a glaring hole at the position and such a need for a bat like Wallace...It continues to boggle my mind all these weeks later.

Instead the Cardinals continue to use Joe Thurston at third with a very rare dose of Troy Glaus when his fragile bones allow. Glaus has managed just 18 at-bats this season. Is the defense from Joe Thurston and Glaus so much more valuable than a potential all-star bat? I seriously doubt it.

Is Brett Tomko an improved pitcher or is this just a nice run of good luck for him? His 5.39 FIP says it isn't. His strikeout rate is still a barely mediocre 5.18, less even than his career 5.98 rate. His walk rate is down this year to 2.04 per nine innings. But walks have never really been Tomko's problem. The HR9 starts to get at his problem. He has a career rate of 1.26 which is bad enough but this year it stands at 1.88 which is probably still a sign of bad luck even for Tomko. His FB rate is up significantly but since it hasn't really hurt him I think it is safe to assume that he is being aided greatly by Oakland Collesium (or whatever they call it now). The A's defense and bullpen have also helped Tomko build a 84.8 LOB% which is another sign that luck is playing a huge factor in his performance. I'm sure he's tempting to those that are streaming pitchers down the stretch. I would still stay away. Rostering Tomko is like trading your cow for a sack of magic beans.

RotoCommunity.com has lots of great articles you should check out. But of particular interest may be their expert league fantasy football draft results. My team got destroyed in week one. It didn't help that my thin receiving core was counting on Anthony Gonzalez to step up into a quasi-number one type. I have serious work to do. It is not too late to gain some value from looking at this draft. It could confirm an idea or turn you off on another one.

Over at FanGraphs, Dave Cameron is predicting the rise of the center fielder.

There is so much talent in center field that we could be seeing the dawning of the greatest group of talent to ever play the position at the same time. Seriously, just take a look at the current crop of players manning the position.

This spawned nearly 100 comments from readers. Many had a problem with the groupings that Dave used which in my opinion is a little silly. The groupings have little to do with the overall point -- that this is a historic period for center field talent. A few seemed to have a problem with how Matt Kemp was classified. Some arguing that he is overrated and others that he is potentially the best in the game. A couple of the older guys suggested that the Duke Snider/Mickey Mantle/Willie Mays era was easily the best. This is interesting reading that you'll want to check out.

Justin Morneau Out for the Season

Back injuries are the worst. Not only are they hard to rehab but once you hurt your back the chance of a recurrence increases significantly. You have probably heard that Justin Morneau will miss the remainder of the season with a stress fracture in his back. I have not heard when exactly his back was injured but Morneau has been slumping pretty badly for more than a month. The Minnesota Twins have announced that he will not need surgery and through rest and rehab should be prepared to start the 2010 season on time.

As bad as this news is for Morneau owners it should give a slight boost to those owners still holding on to Carlos Gomez and Delmon Young. Both players have been extremely disappointing this season. Gomez was reduced to part-time play and has just 11 stolen bases in 17 attempts. He'll become the regular center fielder for the balance of the season. So, if you could use a few extra steals down the stretch (and can take the slight hit to your batting average) Gomez could be your man. Young's July hot streak was apparently just a mirage and not a sign that he was starting to get it. At least that is the only conclusion to make where the stats are concerned. Young still has those tools and will receive a boost in at-bats with Michael Cuddyer moving to first base.

BA's Player of the Year and Lots More

Jason Heyward is Baseball America's Minor League Player of the Year. No one who follows prospects is surprised. He is truly the total package. He has the tools to do anything on the baseball diamond. He has patience, discipline, developing power, baserunning skills, and a cannon right-field arm. I'm drooling over the possibilities of owning him in my leagues. Yes, I am the guy in your league obsessed with prospects. Fortunately, I have enough control to avoid letting it change my draft or auction...most of the time. The article compares him to Francouer which I think is pretty stupid statistically since he never did have any real patience at the plate.

Speaking of lack of patience, the Giants astound me. They have a nice stadium and resources but they still haven't got a clue how to build an offense. They have a lineup full of guys who hit for a decent batting average but without patience or power. Now, one or two guys like that (who also play excellent defense) would be okay. But a whole lineup of them (sans Pablo Sandoval and Bengie Molina) is just stupid. How does Brian Sabean keep his job? Lincecum could have won another Cy Young with just a little run support.

Our friends over at MLB Fantasy Prospects have a feature article on Jaff Decker. The article, #23 MLB Fantasy Prospect: Jaff Decker (OF, San Diego Padres) - Scouting Report is part of a series on the best prospects of 2009. It gives us the origins of Jaff's unusually spelled name. Who they call John Kruk Jr, a nice compliment unless he becomes a Baseball Tonight analyst... But seriously, add these guys to your RSS Feeds and follow them Twitter, it will be worth it.

I think the idea that Theo Epstein would make the silly offer to the Blue Jays described in this article is not based in reality. The Red Sox are probably one of the few teams that could survive after ravaging their farm system that way but Theo would never do it. He is just too smart.

Thanks AaronGleeman.com! I know for a fact that Fat Kids do indeed love bacon.



Baseball-Intellect takes a look at the injuries that have plagued pitching prospects in the New York Yankees system. I don't think this is a sign that the Yankees have a problem with their minor league coaches and trainers. I think it is more that the Yankees take chances with pitchers that in some cases they draft with the knowledge that they may eventually require surgery. The downside is a lot of wasted dollars (which the Yankees can afford) the upside is a deeper system with upside arms that the low-drafting Yankees would never otherwise get to draft.

Evil E is my favorite Fantasy Basketball analyst. His site RotoEvil.com is a must visit if you are serious about your fantasy basketball. His 50 Players to Target for the 2009-10 Fantasy Basketball Season is in progress right now. I can't wait for his Draft Guide...You should join his Free Fantasy Basketball Mailing List by signing up here.

Not to short change another of the lesser Fantasy Sports (just kidding) RotoRob.com has released their top 20 left-wingers as part of their Fantasy Hockey Draft Kit. Go see if he placed Alexander Ovechkin at number two, just for fun. RotoRob.com also has a Fantasy Basketball Draft Kit that you should be keeping up with.

Okay, to keep this from turning into an All-Sports Blog I will second Roto Think Tank's notion that you should roster Washington Nationals shortstop Ian Desmond. Not only is he playing well down the stretch he looks like the starting shortstop in 2010. He raised his walk rate in the minors this season to a respectable 10.1 percent while cutting his strikeouts to 17.4 percent. He is for real.

The Braves have accumulated quite the collection of starters this season. Tim Hudson is back from surgery and has been solid. They now have Derek Lowe, Javier Vazquez, Hudson, Tommy Hanson, Jair Jurrjens and Kenshin Kawakami all pitching effectively. They have a couple of holes on offense primarily in the outfield. I have a solid hunch that Heyward will take over in right field next season. Could the Braves trade a starter for a left fielder or first baseman this winter?

As the Major League Baseball season comes to a close and the National Football League, National Hockey League, and National Basketball Association get going you want to be sporting the hottest new gear don't you? Well, if you're leaning towards buying a new cap or sports jersey please consider doing it through one of the advertisements on the site. You'll be getting exactly the high quality products you're looking for while helping to keep me in hot dogs and ramen noodles. Thank you for your support, it is and always will be much appreciated.

Shop Now for New Team Logo Apparel at MLB.com Shop!

Concept 59Fifty: Design You Own Cap Contest at NewEraCap.com

Baseball America's 2009 Top 20 Standout Prospects

If you are going to play Advanced Fantasy Baseball you will need to stay current with prospects and future prospects. Baseball America is an excellent source of information on minor leaguers, college players, high school players, independent leagues, and the winter leagues. Although they keep most of their material behind the subscription wall there is always very useful information available for free.

One useful free resource is their Baseball America Prospect Report. This is a FREE daily e-mail that updates you on the performances of players in the minors. It also keeps up with the players participating in Winter Leagues so it should be useful if you, like me, are too poor to journey to Arizona every Fall.

The Prospect Hot Sheet is Baseball America's weekly update on who the hottest minor leaguers are. This week for the last week of the report for the season they shared their Top 20 Standout Prospects from the 2009 season. I'm reproducing the list but you'll have to visit the link to read their comments and see the stats these guys put up this year. Any comments are all mine.

1. Jason Heyward RF Atlanta Braves - Almost universally considered the best prospect in the game. He should begin a long reign as the Braves best player in 2010.

2. Buster Posey C San Francisco Giants - The Giants have an under-hyped group of position players that will certainly help them upgrade their offense. Posey leads that pack and could be starting for the Giants in 2010.

3. Chris Carter 1B Oakland Athletics - The next Jason Giambi may be in the Oakland clubhouse in 2o10. Though the A's may want to give him a bit more time at AAA to work on cutting down those strikeouts.

4. Brian Matusz LHP Baltimore Orioles - The leader of an impressive crop of Orioles pitching prospects. He's already turning heads in the majors.

5. Desmond Jennings CF Tampa Bay Rays - Jennings is a personal favorite of mine. I love his combination of speed on the base paths and power potential. He is the only minor leaguer this season with more than 50 stolen bases and 50 extra-base hits.

6. Carlos Santana C Cleveland Indians - Santana looks ready to replace Victor Martinez in the Indians' lineup. He's not quite in Martinez's class as a hitter (not yet anyway) but he should be a very good fantasy option.

7. Derek Norris C Washington Nationals - The catcher of the future in Washington. Jesus Flores has the power but he does not have the skills that Norris displayed this season.

8. Christian Friedrich LHP Colorado Rockies - As a Rockies pitcher and a rookie he won't qualify for the Short List but his stuff is incredible.

9. Madison Bumgarner LHP San Francisco Giants - Another great pitching prospect for the Giants. He might be the left-handed Tim Lincecum if he can develop a complement to his great fastball.

10. Jeremy Hellickson RHP Tampa Bay Rays - Hellickson would probably already be dominating in the majors if he were not in an organization busting at the seams with pitching talent.

11. Jaff Decker LF San Diego Padres - This is the patient and power-hitting outfielder the Padres so desperately need.

12. Jesus Montero C New York Yankees - He broke a finger in August which probably cost him a September call-up. He could be the Yankees' next DH if he moves away from catching as most suspect he will.

13. Daniel Hudson RHP Chicago White Sox - Played at four different levels this season before finishing in the major league bullpen. He could be in the big league rotation next season.

14. Pedro Alvarez 3B Pittsburgh Pirates -He represents hope for Pirates fans. He was worth all the trouble the organization went through to sign his powerful bat even if it ends up at first base.

15. James Darnell 3B San Diego Padres - The Padres have a nice group of patient hitters in the pipelines. They may know what they're doing after all.

16. Thomas Neal LF San Francisco Giants - He played in High A at 22-years old but should be promoted quickly up the ladder next season.

17. Martin Perez LHP Texas Rangers - Perez is currently my favorite pitching prospect. The Rangers are on a role when it comes to developing pitchers and Perez will have the chance to establish himself as in the same class as Derek Holland and Neftali Feliz next season.

18. Ike Davis 1B New York Mets - Davis has serious power but has some work to do on his plate discipline.

19. Michael Taylor RF Philadelphia Phillies - Taylor could be proof that the Phillies are about to go on a run of success never before seen by a Philly baseball team. He has all the tools and produced big-time numbers this season.

20. Tyler Flowers C Chicago White Sox - He was a standout in the Arizona Fall League last year and produced like a future standout fantasy catcher this year.

Under Not Fantasy Sports but Still Awesome!

Dan Brown, author of the Di Vinci Code and Angels and Demons, has a new book coming out called The Lost Symbol. The new book also features the historian detective, Robert Langdon. Dan Brown writes books that are almost impossible to put down. Everyone you know will be talking about it very soon. The even greater news is that Amazon is offering an insane discount on the book right off the bat. You can get the Hardcover edition for just $16.17 which is 46 percent off the cover price. If you buy through one of my Amazon links you'll also be helping out Advanced Fantasy Baseball. In fact, if you buy stuff from Amazon.com you can always do so through the portals on this site and help me out while doing your shopping as usual.

Matt Kemp - 2010's Top Ranked Outfielder

Before this season began I predicted that Matt Kemp would become a top 10 outfielder and he has done it. I was prepared to call Matt Kemp the number one outfielder for the 2010 season but Paul Sporer of FanBall's OwnersEdge has beat me to it. Paul has just released some very early top 12 rankings at each position for the 2010 season. I have a few quibbles, but overall the lists are pretty close to what the better fantasy experts will be posting in the next few months. Paul of course has done it first.

Owner's Edge is a premiere site that charges a membership few in order to access their articles. But Paul was good enough to post his lists on the RotoJunkie Forums for people to see and comment upon. Here is the outfielder list, check out RotoJunkie and OwnersEdge for the others.

1. Matt Kemp
2. Ryan Braun
3. Carl Crawford
4. Jacoby Ellsbury
5. Grady Sizemore
6. Matt Holliday
7. Ichiro Suzuki
8. Carlos Beltran
9. Bobby Abreu
10. Justin Upton
11. Jason Bay
12. Adam Dunn

NL Outfielders, The Indians Re-Building and Lots More

I'm going to be posting more frequently from now until the end of the season. The posts may be short and heavy on links but they should be of interest for fantasy leaguers in all types of situations.

Will Outfielders Be Scarce in NL-Only Leagues in 2010?
A reader recently commented that the NL outfielder is too deep to select an outfielder like Matt Kemp with the number 1 pick. He went on to say that he would prefer to take Albert Pujols or Hanley Ramirez with his first pick, then take an OFer like Matt Holliday with his 2nd pick. I am not so sure I agree. I think the NL outfield is more scarce than people think.

The Indians' Re-Building Project
Without breaking any new ground, the Indians have employed all of the available paths in their attempts to add talent back into the organization, enjoying great success in trading their veterans for prospects (netting the likes of Sizemore, Cabrera, Choo, Hafner, LaPorta, Lee, Valbuena, Shoppach, Brantley and even further down, the likes of Carlos Santana in this still-continuing process), moderate success in the International market (signing players like Victor, Peralta, Carmona, and Rafael Perez), and establishing a spotty record at best in FA endeavors (Millwood, Pavano, and Howry…but Jason Johnson, The Looch, Masa, etc., etc.). The draft however, remains the great frustration in the formula as the Indians, with a stated reliance on the development of players to fill holes internally, have continued to significantly augment the organizational talent more productively by trading their veterans for other teams’ prospects, with the great majority of the current Indians’ stable of talent coming to the club via that route.

SB Nation Gets a Facelift
The homepage is looking spiffy but the various team blogs are still sporting that cookie-cutter look that I hate about most blog networks.

WHYGAVS Looks at Which Pirates They Were Wrong About

This year, four immediate players come to mind.

1. Nyjer Morgan
2. Garrett Jones
3. Zach Duke
4. Andy LaRoche

Why Gordon Beckham Is Not the Rookie of the Year
There hasn’t been much to dislike about Gordon Beckham’s rookie campaign with the White Sox. He’s sprayed the ball all over the field to a tune of a .808 OPS. His defense has improved with every game he’s played at third base. His at-bat music is awesome. And he plays the game with a confident cockiness that you don’t see from many seasoned veterans.

Who Has the Stuff?
Two components determine how nasty a pitcher’s stuff truly is: velocity and movement. We’ve had radar guns to track the league’s hardest throwers for some time (that would be Joel Zumaya, of course) But now, with the help of pitchf/x data and a local regression technique picked up from Dave Allen, we can come pretty close to quantifying a pitcher’s stuff. We can assign every single pitch an expected run value given its physical characteristics—be it velocity, movement, location, release point, or any other data point given by the pitchf/x data. For the purposes of measuring expected run value based on stuff (StuffRV), I used velocity, horizontal movement, and vertical movement as my three independent variables, and restricted my sample to only righties who released the ball from at least five feet off the ground, with a minimum of 1,000 pitches over the last three years.

Name	StuffRV
A.J. Burnett	-46
Felix Hernandez	-31
Zack Greinke	-26
Edwin Jackson	-26
Ubaldo Jimenez	-26
Chad Billingsley	-23
Brian Wilson	-22
Brandon Morrow	-21
Roy Halladay	-21
Matt Garza	-20
Dave Bush	15
Jeff Suppan	17
Braden Looper	19
Livan Hernandez	20
Greg Maddux	23

Who the Hell is Carlos Rosa?
I had never heard of Carlos Rosa before conducting this analysis, but now, from a sample of just 50 pitches, I can’t stop wondering why he’s not in the Majors. Great stuff. Decent control. The only evident knocks against him are his 2-8 Win-Loss record in AAA and 4.56 ERA. Maybe Dayton Moore knows something I don’t, or perhaps Rosa brought it just for his brief appearance in the Majors, or it’s possible GMDM is undervaluing a young talent who can get Major League hitters out. Actually, all three of these scenarios have probably taken place.

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