Justin Morneau Out for the Season

Back injuries are the worst. Not only are they hard to rehab but once you hurt your back the chance of a recurrence increases significantly. You have probably heard that Justin Morneau will miss the remainder of the season with a stress fracture in his back. I have not heard when exactly his back was injured but Morneau has been slumping pretty badly for more than a month. The Minnesota Twins have announced that he will not need surgery and through rest and rehab should be prepared to start the 2010 season on time.

As bad as this news is for Morneau owners it should give a slight boost to those owners still holding on to Carlos Gomez and Delmon Young. Both players have been extremely disappointing this season. Gomez was reduced to part-time play and has just 11 stolen bases in 17 attempts. He'll become the regular center fielder for the balance of the season. So, if you could use a few extra steals down the stretch (and can take the slight hit to your batting average) Gomez could be your man. Young's July hot streak was apparently just a mirage and not a sign that he was starting to get it. At least that is the only conclusion to make where the stats are concerned. Young still has those tools and will receive a boost in at-bats with Michael Cuddyer moving to first base.

BA's Player of the Year and Lots More

Jason Heyward is Baseball America's Minor League Player of the Year. No one who follows prospects is surprised. He is truly the total package. He has the tools to do anything on the baseball diamond. He has patience, discipline, developing power, baserunning skills, and a cannon right-field arm. I'm drooling over the possibilities of owning him in my leagues. Yes, I am the guy in your league obsessed with prospects. Fortunately, I have enough control to avoid letting it change my draft or auction...most of the time. The article compares him to Francouer which I think is pretty stupid statistically since he never did have any real patience at the plate.

Speaking of lack of patience, the Giants astound me. They have a nice stadium and resources but they still haven't got a clue how to build an offense. They have a lineup full of guys who hit for a decent batting average but without patience or power. Now, one or two guys like that (who also play excellent defense) would be okay. But a whole lineup of them (sans Pablo Sandoval and Bengie Molina) is just stupid. How does Brian Sabean keep his job? Lincecum could have won another Cy Young with just a little run support.

Our friends over at MLB Fantasy Prospects have a feature article on Jaff Decker. The article, #23 MLB Fantasy Prospect: Jaff Decker (OF, San Diego Padres) - Scouting Report is part of a series on the best prospects of 2009. It gives us the origins of Jaff's unusually spelled name. Who they call John Kruk Jr, a nice compliment unless he becomes a Baseball Tonight analyst... But seriously, add these guys to your RSS Feeds and follow them Twitter, it will be worth it.

I think the idea that Theo Epstein would make the silly offer to the Blue Jays described in this article is not based in reality. The Red Sox are probably one of the few teams that could survive after ravaging their farm system that way but Theo would never do it. He is just too smart.

Thanks AaronGleeman.com! I know for a fact that Fat Kids do indeed love bacon.



Baseball-Intellect takes a look at the injuries that have plagued pitching prospects in the New York Yankees system. I don't think this is a sign that the Yankees have a problem with their minor league coaches and trainers. I think it is more that the Yankees take chances with pitchers that in some cases they draft with the knowledge that they may eventually require surgery. The downside is a lot of wasted dollars (which the Yankees can afford) the upside is a deeper system with upside arms that the low-drafting Yankees would never otherwise get to draft.

Evil E is my favorite Fantasy Basketball analyst. His site RotoEvil.com is a must visit if you are serious about your fantasy basketball. His 50 Players to Target for the 2009-10 Fantasy Basketball Season is in progress right now. I can't wait for his Draft Guide...You should join his Free Fantasy Basketball Mailing List by signing up here.

Not to short change another of the lesser Fantasy Sports (just kidding) RotoRob.com has released their top 20 left-wingers as part of their Fantasy Hockey Draft Kit. Go see if he placed Alexander Ovechkin at number two, just for fun. RotoRob.com also has a Fantasy Basketball Draft Kit that you should be keeping up with.

Okay, to keep this from turning into an All-Sports Blog I will second Roto Think Tank's notion that you should roster Washington Nationals shortstop Ian Desmond. Not only is he playing well down the stretch he looks like the starting shortstop in 2010. He raised his walk rate in the minors this season to a respectable 10.1 percent while cutting his strikeouts to 17.4 percent. He is for real.

The Braves have accumulated quite the collection of starters this season. Tim Hudson is back from surgery and has been solid. They now have Derek Lowe, Javier Vazquez, Hudson, Tommy Hanson, Jair Jurrjens and Kenshin Kawakami all pitching effectively. They have a couple of holes on offense primarily in the outfield. I have a solid hunch that Heyward will take over in right field next season. Could the Braves trade a starter for a left fielder or first baseman this winter?

As the Major League Baseball season comes to a close and the National Football League, National Hockey League, and National Basketball Association get going you want to be sporting the hottest new gear don't you? Well, if you're leaning towards buying a new cap or sports jersey please consider doing it through one of the advertisements on the site. You'll be getting exactly the high quality products you're looking for while helping to keep me in hot dogs and ramen noodles. Thank you for your support, it is and always will be much appreciated.

Shop Now for New Team Logo Apparel at MLB.com Shop!

Concept 59Fifty: Design You Own Cap Contest at NewEraCap.com

Baseball America's 2009 Top 20 Standout Prospects

If you are going to play Advanced Fantasy Baseball you will need to stay current with prospects and future prospects. Baseball America is an excellent source of information on minor leaguers, college players, high school players, independent leagues, and the winter leagues. Although they keep most of their material behind the subscription wall there is always very useful information available for free.

One useful free resource is their Baseball America Prospect Report. This is a FREE daily e-mail that updates you on the performances of players in the minors. It also keeps up with the players participating in Winter Leagues so it should be useful if you, like me, are too poor to journey to Arizona every Fall.

The Prospect Hot Sheet is Baseball America's weekly update on who the hottest minor leaguers are. This week for the last week of the report for the season they shared their Top 20 Standout Prospects from the 2009 season. I'm reproducing the list but you'll have to visit the link to read their comments and see the stats these guys put up this year. Any comments are all mine.

1. Jason Heyward RF Atlanta Braves - Almost universally considered the best prospect in the game. He should begin a long reign as the Braves best player in 2010.

2. Buster Posey C San Francisco Giants - The Giants have an under-hyped group of position players that will certainly help them upgrade their offense. Posey leads that pack and could be starting for the Giants in 2010.

3. Chris Carter 1B Oakland Athletics - The next Jason Giambi may be in the Oakland clubhouse in 2o10. Though the A's may want to give him a bit more time at AAA to work on cutting down those strikeouts.

4. Brian Matusz LHP Baltimore Orioles - The leader of an impressive crop of Orioles pitching prospects. He's already turning heads in the majors.

5. Desmond Jennings CF Tampa Bay Rays - Jennings is a personal favorite of mine. I love his combination of speed on the base paths and power potential. He is the only minor leaguer this season with more than 50 stolen bases and 50 extra-base hits.

6. Carlos Santana C Cleveland Indians - Santana looks ready to replace Victor Martinez in the Indians' lineup. He's not quite in Martinez's class as a hitter (not yet anyway) but he should be a very good fantasy option.

7. Derek Norris C Washington Nationals - The catcher of the future in Washington. Jesus Flores has the power but he does not have the skills that Norris displayed this season.

8. Christian Friedrich LHP Colorado Rockies - As a Rockies pitcher and a rookie he won't qualify for the Short List but his stuff is incredible.

9. Madison Bumgarner LHP San Francisco Giants - Another great pitching prospect for the Giants. He might be the left-handed Tim Lincecum if he can develop a complement to his great fastball.

10. Jeremy Hellickson RHP Tampa Bay Rays - Hellickson would probably already be dominating in the majors if he were not in an organization busting at the seams with pitching talent.

11. Jaff Decker LF San Diego Padres - This is the patient and power-hitting outfielder the Padres so desperately need.

12. Jesus Montero C New York Yankees - He broke a finger in August which probably cost him a September call-up. He could be the Yankees' next DH if he moves away from catching as most suspect he will.

13. Daniel Hudson RHP Chicago White Sox - Played at four different levels this season before finishing in the major league bullpen. He could be in the big league rotation next season.

14. Pedro Alvarez 3B Pittsburgh Pirates -He represents hope for Pirates fans. He was worth all the trouble the organization went through to sign his powerful bat even if it ends up at first base.

15. James Darnell 3B San Diego Padres - The Padres have a nice group of patient hitters in the pipelines. They may know what they're doing after all.

16. Thomas Neal LF San Francisco Giants - He played in High A at 22-years old but should be promoted quickly up the ladder next season.

17. Martin Perez LHP Texas Rangers - Perez is currently my favorite pitching prospect. The Rangers are on a role when it comes to developing pitchers and Perez will have the chance to establish himself as in the same class as Derek Holland and Neftali Feliz next season.

18. Ike Davis 1B New York Mets - Davis has serious power but has some work to do on his plate discipline.

19. Michael Taylor RF Philadelphia Phillies - Taylor could be proof that the Phillies are about to go on a run of success never before seen by a Philly baseball team. He has all the tools and produced big-time numbers this season.

20. Tyler Flowers C Chicago White Sox - He was a standout in the Arizona Fall League last year and produced like a future standout fantasy catcher this year.

Under Not Fantasy Sports but Still Awesome!

Dan Brown, author of the Di Vinci Code and Angels and Demons, has a new book coming out called The Lost Symbol. The new book also features the historian detective, Robert Langdon. Dan Brown writes books that are almost impossible to put down. Everyone you know will be talking about it very soon. The even greater news is that Amazon is offering an insane discount on the book right off the bat. You can get the Hardcover edition for just $16.17 which is 46 percent off the cover price. If you buy through one of my Amazon links you'll also be helping out Advanced Fantasy Baseball. In fact, if you buy stuff from Amazon.com you can always do so through the portals on this site and help me out while doing your shopping as usual.

Matt Kemp - 2010's Top Ranked Outfielder

Before this season began I predicted that Matt Kemp would become a top 10 outfielder and he has done it. I was prepared to call Matt Kemp the number one outfielder for the 2010 season but Paul Sporer of FanBall's OwnersEdge has beat me to it. Paul has just released some very early top 12 rankings at each position for the 2010 season. I have a few quibbles, but overall the lists are pretty close to what the better fantasy experts will be posting in the next few months. Paul of course has done it first.

Owner's Edge is a premiere site that charges a membership few in order to access their articles. But Paul was good enough to post his lists on the RotoJunkie Forums for people to see and comment upon. Here is the outfielder list, check out RotoJunkie and OwnersEdge for the others.

1. Matt Kemp
2. Ryan Braun
3. Carl Crawford
4. Jacoby Ellsbury
5. Grady Sizemore
6. Matt Holliday
7. Ichiro Suzuki
8. Carlos Beltran
9. Bobby Abreu
10. Justin Upton
11. Jason Bay
12. Adam Dunn

NL Outfielders, The Indians Re-Building and Lots More

I'm going to be posting more frequently from now until the end of the season. The posts may be short and heavy on links but they should be of interest for fantasy leaguers in all types of situations.

Will Outfielders Be Scarce in NL-Only Leagues in 2010?
A reader recently commented that the NL outfielder is too deep to select an outfielder like Matt Kemp with the number 1 pick. He went on to say that he would prefer to take Albert Pujols or Hanley Ramirez with his first pick, then take an OFer like Matt Holliday with his 2nd pick. I am not so sure I agree. I think the NL outfield is more scarce than people think.

The Indians' Re-Building Project
Without breaking any new ground, the Indians have employed all of the available paths in their attempts to add talent back into the organization, enjoying great success in trading their veterans for prospects (netting the likes of Sizemore, Cabrera, Choo, Hafner, LaPorta, Lee, Valbuena, Shoppach, Brantley and even further down, the likes of Carlos Santana in this still-continuing process), moderate success in the International market (signing players like Victor, Peralta, Carmona, and Rafael Perez), and establishing a spotty record at best in FA endeavors (Millwood, Pavano, and Howry…but Jason Johnson, The Looch, Masa, etc., etc.). The draft however, remains the great frustration in the formula as the Indians, with a stated reliance on the development of players to fill holes internally, have continued to significantly augment the organizational talent more productively by trading their veterans for other teams’ prospects, with the great majority of the current Indians’ stable of talent coming to the club via that route.

SB Nation Gets a Facelift
The homepage is looking spiffy but the various team blogs are still sporting that cookie-cutter look that I hate about most blog networks.

WHYGAVS Looks at Which Pirates They Were Wrong About

This year, four immediate players come to mind.

1. Nyjer Morgan
2. Garrett Jones
3. Zach Duke
4. Andy LaRoche

Why Gordon Beckham Is Not the Rookie of the Year
There hasn’t been much to dislike about Gordon Beckham’s rookie campaign with the White Sox. He’s sprayed the ball all over the field to a tune of a .808 OPS. His defense has improved with every game he’s played at third base. His at-bat music is awesome. And he plays the game with a confident cockiness that you don’t see from many seasoned veterans.

Who Has the Stuff?
Two components determine how nasty a pitcher’s stuff truly is: velocity and movement. We’ve had radar guns to track the league’s hardest throwers for some time (that would be Joel Zumaya, of course) But now, with the help of pitchf/x data and a local regression technique picked up from Dave Allen, we can come pretty close to quantifying a pitcher’s stuff. We can assign every single pitch an expected run value given its physical characteristics—be it velocity, movement, location, release point, or any other data point given by the pitchf/x data. For the purposes of measuring expected run value based on stuff (StuffRV), I used velocity, horizontal movement, and vertical movement as my three independent variables, and restricted my sample to only righties who released the ball from at least five feet off the ground, with a minimum of 1,000 pitches over the last three years.

Name	StuffRV
A.J. Burnett	-46
Felix Hernandez	-31
Zack Greinke	-26
Edwin Jackson	-26
Ubaldo Jimenez	-26
Chad Billingsley	-23
Brian Wilson	-22
Brandon Morrow	-21
Roy Halladay	-21
Matt Garza	-20
Dave Bush	15
Jeff Suppan	17
Braden Looper	19
Livan Hernandez	20
Greg Maddux	23

Who the Hell is Carlos Rosa?
I had never heard of Carlos Rosa before conducting this analysis, but now, from a sample of just 50 pitches, I can’t stop wondering why he’s not in the Majors. Great stuff. Decent control. The only evident knocks against him are his 2-8 Win-Loss record in AAA and 4.56 ERA. Maybe Dayton Moore knows something I don’t, or perhaps Rosa brought it just for his brief appearance in the Majors, or it’s possible GMDM is undervaluing a young talent who can get Major League hitters out. Actually, all three of these scenarios have probably taken place.

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Roundtable: Have You Ever Quit on a League?

This week's Fantasy Baseball Roundtable is hosted by RotoAuthority.com and asks the question:

Have you ever quit on a fantasy team of yours? If so, what were the circumstances? If not, how were you able to maintain your motivation even after you had no chance?

We have some very interesting answers this week that just might surprise you. Check it out at RotoAuthority.

Building A Better Pitching Staff

In the old days of Fantasy Baseball you couldn't pick up a Fantasy Magazine or Guide of any kind without reading that pitching was completely unpredictable. If that was ever true, it isn't any longer --at least not to the extent that it used to be. Using newer statistics and advanced indicators has given us the ability to make better informed decisions when it comes to pitchers but in particular starting pitchers. The more information we are able to gather the better our decisions. Unfortunately for most owners, the strategies being used have not changed with the times. I think it is very much the right time to do so.

We can now nail who the really successful starters are and separate them from the flukes and illusions that used to confound fantasy owners of the eighties and early nineties. I am not saying we'll nail their category totals but we can hit within an acceptable range enough of the time that predicting which pitchers we can safely bid full price to acquire is fairly easy to do if still a bit time consuming. Where owners still mess up is in predicting sleepers. It is still very difficult to discern when young pitchers are taking a step up in production (Edwin Jackson), when a veteran's new pitch or attitude will result in a incredible turn around (Joel Pineiro, Cliff Lee) from the young starters who had a little lucky streak at just the right time (Manny Parra) or from the veteran who had a fluky good season (Kyle Lohse). It's difficult but not impossible. The real question is whether it is actually worth investigating and investing in players like this.

Finding hitters to make low cost investments in is considerably easier. An increase in playing time is often enough to turn scrubs like Jake Fox and Drew Sutton into the next Russell Branyan and Ben Zobrist. Does anyone dispute that it is easier to predict Branyan and Zobrist than Jackson and Pineiro? Not many will I am certain. So, why do we fantasy owners still prefer to invest in cheap pitching sleepers more so than the equivalent hitters? We are all trying to fill out our lineups with as many of the Carlos Lee, Adrian Gonzalez, and Dustin Pedroia class of player as possible and then devoting less than a third of our budgets on pitchers. I suppose some will argue that pitchers are more at risk to become injured. That's true but a great hitter is often just as difficult to replace as a top pitcher, perhaps even more difficult. There are always safe relief pitchers available in even the deepest of leagues.

A huge percentage of fantasy owners have adopted LIMA-like strategies that call for most of an owner's draft-day budget to be spent on hitters with a minimal amount (usually $60 of a $260 budget) spent on pitching. If you intend to purchase saves this strategy basically forces you to buy the Pineiro/Parra/Lohse types and hope for the best. I have decided that this is a road to ruin. It requires too much luck especially with half the owners in your leagues chasing the same types of players because they are utilizing essentially the same strategy. You are far better off chasing the top pitchers (try to get at least three of them for around $25 each) and at least one closer (as cheaply as possible) and looking for your sleepers among the position players. If you fill out the rest of your staff with veteran, highly skilled set-up men for just a few dollars each you will be far better off than buying the high risk starters that qualify as sleepers.

The top starters you buy have to be very carefully vetted. You want to eliminate any candidates that are showing signs of decline, injury, or of becoming a trade target. Don't let huge names become your targets. Jake Peavy is a big name but now that he's in Chicago I want no part of him. Roy Oswalt is showing signs of decline in his stats? Avoid him. Scott Kazmir is plagued by minor injuries? Let someone else draft him. Pick experienced starters with high K/BB, K9, and GB% and low BB9, LD% and HR/FB rates and that play on good solid teams (it doesn't need to be the best team) with good solid defense (it doesn't need to be full of gold glove candidates, just avoid the disaster defenses. Be very strict when you make out your list of candiates. It should be a very short list. Now, if you find a pitcher that fits the above criteria who for some reason has not had the expected success you can add him to your list but make him a low priority that you'll draft only if he goes for the right price.

Now, with $100-110 spent on your pitching staff you'll need to work harder to fill out your lineup but you'll find that with hitters there are far fewer absolute statistical disasters. Spend your money on at-bats. I try to draft a stolen base anchor in the infield and a 30/30 outfielder. Then fill out your lineup with the cheapest at-bats you can find. This year easy to project at-bats came at a low price from players like Aaron Hill, Russell Branyan, Brett Gardner, Ben Zobrist, Travis Hafner, Nelson Cruz, Marcos Scutaro, Cesar Izturis, Miguel Montero, Everth Cabrera, Scott Hairston, Jerry Hairston, and Josh Willingham just to name a few. It can be done if you are willing to put the work into it.

I received this e-mail (edited for brevity) this week from a reader named DeWitt that asks some very relevant questions and raises some good points:

A couple of weeks ago you sent us a link to an initial analysis someone at Elite had done with its fresh-off-the-presses all-leagues database. That person's first-glance deductions were 1/ active owners do better, and 2/ 'streaming' doesn't work. The first seems self-evident. The second, though, contained a leap of logic I can't let rest.

Specifically, it was pitching that he looked at. Trying to catch the hot-hand/playing match-ups/churn-and-pray --- it doesn't work, he reasoned, because those teams which seem to have engaged in it end up with bad numbers --- high ERA, WHIP, etc. His conclusion may well be spot-on. His reasoning isn't.

Streaming causes bad numbers, he says. I say the reverse is every bit as true: bad numbers cause streaming.

Think about it. You start the season with six weeks of disastrous pitching, fall to 13th in a league of 12, savor your 6.78 ERA for a second and, buddy, you're splashing around the free agent pool fishing for Pelfreys. And Mr- I've-Got-LIncecum-and-Greinke? He's dating super-models, not working the waivers.

You see my point. Early success discourages streaming. Early failure may require it. It's self-fulfilling. Elite's data-dude has, I'm afraid, confused cause and effect.

It's like saying people who aren't born into money are less successful at accumulating it. Blind people are more likely to shop for underwear while walking a dog. Or, because women tend to get pregnant after sex, women wanting to reproduce should seek out partners with high sperm counts.

Cause and correlation. Two entirely different things.

More productive, perhaps, would be to separate streamers into two sets --- those who employ it as a purposeful strategy from Opening Day, and those who begin later, out of desperation. Which group is larger? Is either successful? One more than the other?

Among the latter group, is it possible to compare the panicky (streamers) to the patient (active non-streamers) and recommend one strategy over the other? Or, among the purposeful streamers, is there anything to be deduced from those who employ the strategy well?

I think the reader has a very good point about streaming. Most of those doing it are acting out of desperation rather than desire. If you had a great pitching staff already, constantly churning it to squeeze out a few extra wins and strikeouts is not going to do anything good to your numbers in most leagues. Because the best pitchers are already rostered. Those who go into the season planning to stream pitchers are usually trying to get by with a low cost pitching staff. Whatever streaming does for your Wins and Strikeouts it usually makes up for by destroying your ratios. Starting the Brett Tomko's and Parra's of your league just because they're facing the Padres in San Diego is not going to help anyone but your opponents. Maybe the example is a bit extreme, but how many great pitchers are available for streaming purposes? Undeniably, there are some who stream their way to success but I do not believe that makes it a strategy worth emulating unless you are in an extremely shallow league. If you're in anything deeper than a standard 12-team mixed, I would avoid the strategy. To be clear, there is a huge difference between streaming and maximizing your current pitching staff by effectively using your bench options.

My primary point is that you can avoid the need for streaming by drafting a better initial pitching staff. I don't have much of an opinion on whether streaming is ethical or not. I think if you don't like it you should put rules in place to prevent it. For more opinions on streaming you can check out these articles while I move on to other things...

Roto Arcade: Streaming Ethics
True Guru: Streaming Pitchers
TGIF: The Ethics of Streaming Pitchers
Todd Zola: Strategy of Streaming

Under Not Fantasy Sports but Still Awesome!

Dan Brown, author of the Di Vinci Code and Angels and Demons, has a new book coming out called The Lost Symbol. The new book also features the historian detective, Robert Langdon. Dan brown writes books that are almost impossible to put down. Everyone you know will be talking about it very soon. The even greater news is that Amazon is offering an insane discount on the book right off the bat. You can get the Hardcover edition for just $16.17 which is 46 percent off the cover price. If you buy through one of my Amazon links you'll also be helping out Advanced Fantasy Baseball. In fact, if you buy stuff from Amazon.com you can always do so through the portals on this site and help me out while doing your shopping as usual.