Hot Prospect: Matt Young PLUS Some Other Stuff...

Sometimes really smart people do stupid things. They do things like dismiss a prospect entirely based on his age or his height. That's dumb. Yes, your age at a given level is an indication of a player's talent and skill level but it isn't everything. And at least in baseball, size doesn't matter. Matt Young is 26-years old and short. He is a very good prospect.

Young was a fantastic High School Player for Plano East High School where he made the All-Texas Team. At the University of New Mexico he was a Freshman All-American. He led the Mid-West Conference in walks and On-Base Percentage. His sophomore year he led the conference in walks and steals. His junior year he hit .381 and led the MWC in triples. He went undrafted but signed as a free agent with the Braves.

With the Rome Braves in 2005 he hit .312/.412/.409 with 85 runs and he had a .992 fielding percentage in center field. He led the Braves organization in OBP and runs scored. In 2006 with Myrtle Beach he hit .281/.389/.375 with 30 doubles and 71 walks, while playing excellent defense and stealing 21 bases. In 2007 he missed time due to injuries but still had a .381 on-base percentage for the Pelicans. He was promoted to double-A and struggled for the first time in his life batting .242/.308/.305 in 33 games. In 2008 repeating double-A he hit .289/.384/.385 with 30 stolen bases.

Last fall the Braves sent Young to the Arizona Fall League, a prospect showcase and he sparkled hitting .367/.426/.571. But for some reason the Braves sent him back to double-A Mississippi where he is presently hitting .281/.409/.393 with 33 stolen bases in 427 at-bats. Young looks like another Nyjer Morgan (maybe not quite as good the base stealer --more on him later). Remember last weekk when we discussed the way teams are going to change? Young is a perfect example of the type of player that will be receiving more chances in the majors than in past years. The Braves haven't shown many signs of including him in their plans (I believe he'll be Rule V eligible) but he should be on the radar of fantasy owners as a potential steal source.

Some Other Stuff...

Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated is suggesting that Major League Baseball is almost certain to have a slotting system for Amateur Draft picks in place by the 2012 draft. This is a great idea. MLB should model their plan after the NBA's and eliminate arbitration altogether. It seems to me that the problem with baseball's present system is not so much that the Free Agents demand so much money. The true problem is that the arbitration eligible players demand so much and and often are not worth it. But under the present rules teams are screwed if they don't offer arbitration.

Should the Twins have to pay Delmon Young $3-4 million dollars next year to keep him around? No, but they will because it would be far worse to let him go for nothing before they even managed to squeeze a good season out of him. This is why the NBA's restricted free agent process is so much better. The player can still get a huge payday if he's worth it (as Tim Lincecum absolutely is) but guys like Young (and the dozens just like him) get the raise without the ridiculous demands attached.

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Tyler Hissey of MVN's Around the Majors blog has put together some rankings of this winter's class of free agent pitchers. He has three different lists but here's the FIP rankings. Check out the Around the Majors blog for the others.

Free Agent Pitchers By Fielding Independent Pitching:

Joel Pineiro: 3.04
Erik Bedard: 3.54
John Lackey: 3.79
Jose Contreras: 3.96
Randy Wolf: 3.98
Jason Marquis: 4.00
Andy Pettitte: 4.12
Tim Wakefield: 4.19
Carl Pavano: 4.26
Rich Harden: 4.46
Kevin Millwood: 4.56
Brad Penny: 4.57
Doug Davis: 4.59
Jon Garland: 4.64
Vicente Padilla: 4.83
Jarrod Washburn: 4.86

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Richard Justice of the Houston Chronicle is daydreaming about an unlimited budget for free agents to boost the Houston Astros back into contention. He suggests that the dream lineup for 2010 would look like this:

C--Jason Castro.
1b--Lance Berkman.
2b--Felipe Lopez.
3b--Miguel Tejada.
SS--Tommy Manzella.
LF--Carlos Lee.
CF--Michael Bourn.
RF--Hunter Pence.

SP--Roy Oswalt.
SP--Wandy Rodriguez.
SP--Bud Norris.
SP--Justin Duchscherer.
SP--John Lackey.

Plus some undefined changes to the bullpen...Is this the best he can do? I bet everyone reading this can do better without adding more than $30 million to their $102 million dollar payroll. Use Cot's Baseball Contracts if you'd like to show me how much better you can do...(yes, hint, hint).

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The Chicago Cubs have finally been sold. After years of rumors and at least two years of negotiations the Cubs (or 95 percent of them) are now the property of the Ricketts family for a cool $845 million. Hopefully, this will free the Cubs to do whatever it takes to finally return to the World Series and even to win one. The Cubs were severely hampered by this process in Spring Training when they attempted to acquire Jake Peavy or another top starter. The Cubs should make big moves this fall.

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Who says the Mets don't have any prospects? He came into the spotlight this week when he made Baseball America's Prospect Hot Sheet, but Kirk Nieuwenhuis is not just the flavor of the week. He was a third round pick in 2008 and just had his 22nd birthday. He'll be moving quickly through the Mets organization if this keeps up. This week's hot sheet also includes my second favorite prospect ( after Michael Stanton), Brett Wallace. Check out the write ups on the whole list which is not behind the subscriber wall.

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Early this season I was a doubter when it came to Nyjer Morgan. I was not discounting his ability to play good defense and steal bases. I just did not think the Pittsburgh Pirates were the type of team to allow an older player like Morgan a full-time opportunity. I thought they would lean on their younger players even if it hurt a little. I should have known better. But I am now as big a Nyjer Morgan fan as there is. I love to see that guys like Thomas Boswell of the Washington Post are also on the bandwagon.

The Washington Nationals are quickly becoming my second favorite team. Now that Mike Rizzo is the GM I'm confident that they will continue to make all the right moves. They are closer than you think to being a contender. They have the key parts of a quality offense. If you can't find a way to score runs with a speedster with on-base skills like Nyjer Morgan, an on-base machine like Nick Johnson (I know he's gone but still...) and middle of the order bats like Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Dunn (who should be moving to first base next season), and Josh Willingham you should be fired. Just ask Manny Acta.

Rizzo will keep building up the farm system. This time next season Stephen Strasburg should be the best pitching prospect in the country (if he isn't already) and about to join the Nationals' rotation (if he isn't already there). I enjoyed reading how the Nationals led by Mike Rizzo out-maneuvered super agent Scott Boras. The stories are probably overblown but Strasburg apparently always intended to sign provided he received a fair offer. So when the Nats discovered this and stuck to their record breaking (but far from the 25-50 million Boras was supposedly looking for) offer, and given his client's wishes, Boras had to accept it.

Strasburg is far from flawless but he is deserving of the attention he is receiving. Despite the hype you can count on the Nationals doing the right thing. They'll keep Strasburg in the minors where he belongs until he proves himself. Do not expect to see him in the majors before mid-June, if even that soon.

Delmon Young, Joe Mauer and Stuff...

Delmon Young on a Roll

Delmon Young was once expected to become a major offensive baseball force. He was the next in a line of young stars that included Evan Longoria, Carl Crawford, James Shields and others in the Tampa Bay Rays minor league system. He was questioned for having a bad attitude and being hard to coach, but no one doubted his potential. Four years later from that peak of interest he has yet to have much impact. He has been average at best and often much worse than that. But whereas the Rays quickly cut their loses the Minnesota Twins have stuck with him and there are signs that it is about to pay off for them and fantasy owners.

Young's mother died early this season of cancer, he received a week off. This is tough for anyone to deal with, so maybe we can understand a little better some of this season's lack of focus. To date, Young is batting .265/.292/.388 with 7 homeruns, 2 stolen bases, and three caught stealing. Though he has never been a very patient hitter (contrary to popular opinion this isn't the end of his usefulness as a hitter) Young's lack of power has been very disappointing. This is the stuff you probably already knew.

What you may not have realized is fairly significant. Like Josh Hamilton, Delmon Young has always had a slight hitch in his swing. This is something that Young has been working on since the end of last season. Changing your swing is one of the most difficult (and dangerous for your production) things that a hitter can do. Some hitters manage it easily some are forever fiddling trying to find what works again. Since the All-Star Break Young has hit .265/.292/.515 which is not amazing but a huge step up from his first half. In July he hit .313/.343/.500 and .269/.296/.558 in August. This is not mind-blowing statistically but it is progress. When you combine his statistical progress with the recent comments by Twins manager Ron Gardenhire praising Young for his change in attitude and the work he has put in working with the the coaching staff, it gives you hope that his potential is still in reach. Young is still just 24-years old, an age where most prospects are still at triple-A. Young of course has spent the last three seasons in the major leagues. I'm looking at a huge breakout in the 2010 season.

Your American League MVP is Joe Mauer
Joe Mauer is a beast. Right now he is the best player in baseball. Yes, better than Albert Pujols. In fact Mauer could be having the best season ever for a catcher. Better than Mike Piazza, Johnny Bench, or Ivan Rodriguez or any catcher in history has ever recorded.

Random Bits and Pieces

The New York Yankees may not get center fielder Brett Gardner back as soon as expected. His doctors suggested that he keep the splint on his thumb another week. So under even the most optimistic program he's another couple of weeks away. But lefty reliever Damaso Marte may be back on Friday. Don't drop Gardner unless you absolutely must. The Yankees could use his fresh legs in the last few weeks of the season to rest the older knees of Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon.

Ed DeCaria of BaseballHQ.com has just completed a two-part study of the correlation between pitching performance and wins. In an attempt to see what factors matter most in predicting wins. The results are a bit unsatisfying (after a whole lot of math and charting he never manages better than a 50/50 shot at predicting wins) but the articles are interesting and may make it easier to understand what makes the best pitchers tick if you have access to HQ.

Mike Hampton, who has been useful at times this season, has a torn rotator cuff. He has chosen to go the rehab route rather than have surgery. You can hardly blame him. After missing huge chunks of the last five years the idea of another serious surgery and lengthy rehab had to be daunting. I doubt he'll be of any use the rest of the season and I would be very hesitant to draft him in 2010.

Drew Stubbs (Cincinnati Reds center field prospect) has been promoted to the majors today. He should be in the majors to stay. It is actually a little shocking that the Reds did not promote him earlier considering his nice production in the minors and the Reds' needs in the outfield. He still needs to cut down the strikeouts but has begun to take walks at a decent rate and should continue to improve. He is already a better hitter than Wily Tavares. He should provide his owners with boatloads of steals.

Arizona Diamondbacks manager AJ Hinch is excited about the potential of the club's likely September callups. In particular he mentioned first base prospect Brandon Allen, who is hitting .341 with 12 homers and 31 RBIs in 35 games with Triple-A Reno since the D-backs acquired him from the White Sox. Also, outfielder Cole Gillespie who has hit .325 for triple-A Reno. Those two make nice speculation picks on FAAB if your league rules allow.

Mike Morse has been called up by the Washington Nationals. He doesn't have a clear position but he can seriously hit when given the chance. If he's still available snatch himup on the cheap.

Industry News: Fanball Buys NFFC, NFBC and Fantasy Sports Magazine

The Press Release:

Fanball, the premier provider of online fantasy sports contests, content, strategy and insight, announced the acquisition of the fantasy sports properties from F+W Media, Inc-- including the National Fantasy Football Championship and National Fantasy Baseball Championship contests as well as Fantasy Sports Magazine and the Company’s fantasy sports custom publications division.

Fanball’s acquisition combines two of the fantasy sports industry’s leading online and offline properties.

The National Fantasy Football Championship and National Fantasy Baseball Championship are the leading high stakes fantasy sports live event contests. Both contests feature a $100,000 Grand Prize, along with several other overall and league prizes. The high stakes contests also feature online and satellite leagues with varying price points.

Fantasy Sports Magazine has been published since 1989, and is one of the foremost fantasy sports analysis publications. The magazine currently prints four issues per year. The publication will join forces with Fanball’s wide array of fantasy sports and NFL draft-related publications. Fanball has provided fantasy sports contests and content since 1992, and has awarded more than $50 million in prize money over that time.

"Fanball is leveraging our extensive online userbase to enter the fast growing live events business for fantasy sports," said Ryan Houston, SVP of http://www.facebook.com/l/;Fanball.com http://www.facebook.com/l/;. "This enhances our product offerings and adds key personnel to our group as we continue to look at partnerships. We are thrilled to add two pioneers in the fantasy sports industry, Greg Ambrosius and Tom Kessenich. Their collective industry experience increases our presence on the national newsstand and bolsters our array of existing print publications."

“I’m excited and honored to be working with the Fanball team. This is the right move at the right time for our live events,” said Greg Ambrosius, founder of the National Fantasy Baseball and Football Championships. “With the great customer base that already exists with http://www.facebook.com/l/;Fanball.com http://www.facebook.com/l/; and CDM Fantasy Sports, the future is now brighter than it’s ever been for the NFBC, NFFC and other sports we look to be a leader in. Tom and I are excited about the future of the live events industry, about working on all of the Fanball print and online products, and about being a big part of one of the leading companies in the industry.”

Said David Blansfield, President, F+W Media, “Although we are exiting the fantasy sports market, this does not affect the rest of the sports community at F+W Media. We will continue to build our sports collectibles community through our books and magazines, auctions, data and online presence. It is a testament to their talent and reputation in the field that Greg and Tom, who have managed our fantasy sports and events businesses, have become employees of Fanball concurrent with this transaction. We congratulate them on this new opportunity.”

The National Fantasy Football Championship Main Event will occur Saturday, September 5 in Las Vegas, Chicago, and New York simultaneously, with satellite leagues taking place throughout the the next four weeks. The National Fantasy Football Championship also offers online leagues that are ongoing through the beginning of the NFL season at different price points from $125 to $1,000.

An Early Look at 2010 Keepers

When you are in a competitive keeper league, next year's team is always on your mind. You look at every available player and consider his value to cost ratio. You wonder how much they might go for in next year's auction. Or at least you should do all that. I imagine sometimes you put it off. Maybe you wait until after the present season, or maybe until December when the Baseball Forecaster arrives in the mail. Still others may wait until their favorite NFL team is eliminated or (God forbid) until Spring Training begins...

Well I'm always thinking about it. And if you're an annual procrastinator you may find this article extremely useful. Here is a list of players that I am very interested in for the 2010 season. You won't find Albert Pujols or Chase Utley on this list. Some are players that are probably not on your radar yet. In some cases you may even have released or traded them away this season, but next year is a whole different beast. Some are players that have been excellent but whose season's have incorrectly been chalked up to luck. Players that have been bad for a combination of reasons that can be explained have also made the list, some are even potential superstars. Still others are players that have earned a greater opportunity that we can pounce on before they get hyped up this winter. I've broken them down into various categories for ease of use and my own entertainment.

Future Closers

Sean Burnett LHP Washington Nationals - He is a lefty with a dominate fastball and the control necessary in a quality closer. The Nationals have settled on Mike MacDougal as closer in recent weeks but that doesn't mean that Burnett does not have closing in his future. If nothing else he is a quality reliever of value in NL-only leagues.

Matt Thornton LHP Chicago White Sox -He's the best left-handed reliever in the American League. He shows the skill and the guile to close games. He is not young but is definitely a closer candidate should the White Sox part ways with Bobby Jenks.

Mike Adams RHP San Diego Padres - After injuries and bouts of ineffectiveness Mike Adams has arrived as the Padres closer-of-the-future. His mid-nineties sinking fastball has always been a dangerous pitch and he has finally developed his other pitches into assets. The rumors of a Heath Bell trade are everywhere. Adams is the man you want to own.

First Round for the First Time

Curtis Granderson OF Detroit Tigers - He has a shot at his first 30/30 season and is a young rising star in the American League. It may be a bit weird that his increase in homers seems to have robbed him of a good deal of doubles. But this is due to a large increase in fly balls more than an increase in luck. He is trying to hit them out more often and it is working.

Matt Kemp OF Los Angeles Dodgers - I predicted he would become a first round pick this season and I was right. His combination of power and speed would be even more valuable if Joe Torre used his brain a little more often when filling out the lineup cards.

Evan Longoria 3B Tampa Bay Rays - If it wasn't for the injuries, Longoria would be a clear first round pick. He is what we all expected from David Wright this season. With Wright clearly not earning a return to the first round this season, Longoria becomes the second best third baseman available.

Post-Hype Prospects

Delmon Young OF Minnesota Twins - He has officially been wiped off of every sleeper list in the country following his pretty terrible 2009 season. But he has shown signs in the second half of the player that all the prospect watchers predicted. He is still just 25 years old and the Twins are not giving up on him. You should not either, especially when he will have a single-digit price.

Brayan Pena C Kansas City Royals - I called him a sleeper in Spring Training but it took the Royals a little longer to see it. He is the starter now and will likely be next season as well. He should hit for a solid average in a lineup that should improve next season.

Prospects I Like a Lot

Alex Avila C Detroit Tigers - A promising hitter and better defensively than many projected.

Peter Bourjos OF Los Angeles Angels - One of the fastest and most exciting players in the minors or the majors.

Jason Heyward OF Atlanta Braves - The best hitter in the minors with improving power and defense.

Michael Stanton OF Florida Marlins - The most powerful hitter in the minors with improving discipline and defense.

Donovan Tate OF San Diego Padres - An incredible athlete whom the Padres are close to talking out of a North Carolina scholarship. He could be very much like Michael Stanton this time next year.

Brett Wallace 3B Oakland Athletics - A very talented hitter on the verge of the major leagues. He should hit better than .300 most seasons with power. I compare him to Joey Votto.

The Unbelievably Good

Joel Pineiro RHP St. Louis Cardinals - I have not been a big fan of Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan because despite their success, they have a long list of players they abused and discarded because they had a different way of doing things. But Pineiro is undeniably a success story based on morphing him from a mediocre strikeout pitcher into a groundball machine. By making Pineiro throw his sinker 60-70 percent of the time his game has been transformed. Pineiro was on board with the change and was quite excited about it this spring. It has worked for him and there is little chance he would abandon it. Still, most fantasy leaguers have become skeptical about seemingly mediocre talents taking a huge step up in production and will fail to properly value him. I'll take him.

Mark Reynolds 3B Arizona Diamondbacks - Most of us were not shocked by the power that Reynolds showed. But the batting average and stolen bases blew a lot of minds. The average was a little over his head but not by as much as you might think. Reynolds does not steal bases like a true speedster but he is a good base runner. Though if the Diamondbacks improve their lineup next season his opportunities could be limited. It is easy to let him run wild when the team is losing if they start winning games they'll start making more responsible decisions.

Marcos Scutaro SS Toronto Blue Jays - In the post I made the other day about the flood of rookies coming to Major League Baseball I should have mentioned that we will also be seeing more and more Marco Scutaro types. These are the players that look like great hitters in the minors and in part-time duty but for some reason fail to win a full-time opportunity in the majors. That's all going to change. Look for another large group of players like Russell Branyan, Marcos Scutaro, Ryan Ludwick and Nelson Cruz before them to get extended opportunities. I'd name them all but that will be another post altogether.

The Injury Discount

Josh Hamilton OF Texas Rangers - I don't care that he slipped up in January. I care much more that he owned up to his mistake the very next day to everyone who truly had a right to know and that was not us. He tried to take a step in normal drinking and he failed miserably. If you've been concerned about his actual performance you really shouldn't be. Hamilton is a fantastic athlete and a terrific baseball player. Towards the end the of the 2008 season he (with the helpof the best hitting coach in baseball) attempted to remove a hitch from his swing that would in theory make his already great bat speed -Otherworldly. The process was going okay but was interrupted by almost three straight months of injury problems. He'll be fine when he's healthy again and you'll get him at a discount to boot.

Vladimir Guerrero OF Los Angeles Angels - Vlad is no longer the best outfielder in all the land, the player that made us drool over 40/40 possibilities. However, he still owns incredible power when his aching old bones are properly medicated. You can now get the lesser Vlad for far less of investment than was once the case, in fact he now goes for less than he's actually worth. That makes him a target in my mind.

Does B.J. Upton Deserve Another Chance?

Roundtable: Does Your Trade Pitch Work?

This week's Fantasy Baseball Roundtable has been posted at The Hardball Times. Derek Carty poses a question regarding trade talks:

Have you ever "pitched” or “marketed” a player in a trade and changed a potential trading partner's opinion about the player? Or, conversely, have you ever had you own opinion about a player changed by an opponent's pitch? Or could pushing a player actually have a negative effect and make a deal less attainable?

It is an interesting question that resulted in some interesting answers. Please, check it out by clicking here.

The Michael Vick Decision...