An Early Look at 2010 Keepers

When you are in a competitive keeper league, next year's team is always on your mind. You look at every available player and consider his value to cost ratio. You wonder how much they might go for in next year's auction. Or at least you should do all that. I imagine sometimes you put it off. Maybe you wait until after the present season, or maybe until December when the Baseball Forecaster arrives in the mail. Still others may wait until their favorite NFL team is eliminated or (God forbid) until Spring Training begins...

Well I'm always thinking about it. And if you're an annual procrastinator you may find this article extremely useful. Here is a list of players that I am very interested in for the 2010 season. You won't find Albert Pujols or Chase Utley on this list. Some are players that are probably not on your radar yet. In some cases you may even have released or traded them away this season, but next year is a whole different beast. Some are players that have been excellent but whose season's have incorrectly been chalked up to luck. Players that have been bad for a combination of reasons that can be explained have also made the list, some are even potential superstars. Still others are players that have earned a greater opportunity that we can pounce on before they get hyped up this winter. I've broken them down into various categories for ease of use and my own entertainment.

Future Closers

Sean Burnett LHP Washington Nationals - He is a lefty with a dominate fastball and the control necessary in a quality closer. The Nationals have settled on Mike MacDougal as closer in recent weeks but that doesn't mean that Burnett does not have closing in his future. If nothing else he is a quality reliever of value in NL-only leagues.

Matt Thornton LHP Chicago White Sox -He's the best left-handed reliever in the American League. He shows the skill and the guile to close games. He is not young but is definitely a closer candidate should the White Sox part ways with Bobby Jenks.

Mike Adams RHP San Diego Padres - After injuries and bouts of ineffectiveness Mike Adams has arrived as the Padres closer-of-the-future. His mid-nineties sinking fastball has always been a dangerous pitch and he has finally developed his other pitches into assets. The rumors of a Heath Bell trade are everywhere. Adams is the man you want to own.

First Round for the First Time

Curtis Granderson OF Detroit Tigers - He has a shot at his first 30/30 season and is a young rising star in the American League. It may be a bit weird that his increase in homers seems to have robbed him of a good deal of doubles. But this is due to a large increase in fly balls more than an increase in luck. He is trying to hit them out more often and it is working.

Matt Kemp OF Los Angeles Dodgers - I predicted he would become a first round pick this season and I was right. His combination of power and speed would be even more valuable if Joe Torre used his brain a little more often when filling out the lineup cards.

Evan Longoria 3B Tampa Bay Rays - If it wasn't for the injuries, Longoria would be a clear first round pick. He is what we all expected from David Wright this season. With Wright clearly not earning a return to the first round this season, Longoria becomes the second best third baseman available.

Post-Hype Prospects

Delmon Young OF Minnesota Twins - He has officially been wiped off of every sleeper list in the country following his pretty terrible 2009 season. But he has shown signs in the second half of the player that all the prospect watchers predicted. He is still just 25 years old and the Twins are not giving up on him. You should not either, especially when he will have a single-digit price.

Brayan Pena C Kansas City Royals - I called him a sleeper in Spring Training but it took the Royals a little longer to see it. He is the starter now and will likely be next season as well. He should hit for a solid average in a lineup that should improve next season.

Prospects I Like a Lot

Alex Avila C Detroit Tigers - A promising hitter and better defensively than many projected.

Peter Bourjos OF Los Angeles Angels - One of the fastest and most exciting players in the minors or the majors.

Jason Heyward OF Atlanta Braves - The best hitter in the minors with improving power and defense.

Michael Stanton OF Florida Marlins - The most powerful hitter in the minors with improving discipline and defense.

Donovan Tate OF San Diego Padres - An incredible athlete whom the Padres are close to talking out of a North Carolina scholarship. He could be very much like Michael Stanton this time next year.

Brett Wallace 3B Oakland Athletics - A very talented hitter on the verge of the major leagues. He should hit better than .300 most seasons with power. I compare him to Joey Votto.

The Unbelievably Good

Joel Pineiro RHP St. Louis Cardinals - I have not been a big fan of Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan because despite their success, they have a long list of players they abused and discarded because they had a different way of doing things. But Pineiro is undeniably a success story based on morphing him from a mediocre strikeout pitcher into a groundball machine. By making Pineiro throw his sinker 60-70 percent of the time his game has been transformed. Pineiro was on board with the change and was quite excited about it this spring. It has worked for him and there is little chance he would abandon it. Still, most fantasy leaguers have become skeptical about seemingly mediocre talents taking a huge step up in production and will fail to properly value him. I'll take him.

Mark Reynolds 3B Arizona Diamondbacks - Most of us were not shocked by the power that Reynolds showed. But the batting average and stolen bases blew a lot of minds. The average was a little over his head but not by as much as you might think. Reynolds does not steal bases like a true speedster but he is a good base runner. Though if the Diamondbacks improve their lineup next season his opportunities could be limited. It is easy to let him run wild when the team is losing if they start winning games they'll start making more responsible decisions.

Marcos Scutaro SS Toronto Blue Jays - In the post I made the other day about the flood of rookies coming to Major League Baseball I should have mentioned that we will also be seeing more and more Marco Scutaro types. These are the players that look like great hitters in the minors and in part-time duty but for some reason fail to win a full-time opportunity in the majors. That's all going to change. Look for another large group of players like Russell Branyan, Marcos Scutaro, Ryan Ludwick and Nelson Cruz before them to get extended opportunities. I'd name them all but that will be another post altogether.

The Injury Discount

Josh Hamilton OF Texas Rangers - I don't care that he slipped up in January. I care much more that he owned up to his mistake the very next day to everyone who truly had a right to know and that was not us. He tried to take a step in normal drinking and he failed miserably. If you've been concerned about his actual performance you really shouldn't be. Hamilton is a fantastic athlete and a terrific baseball player. Towards the end the of the 2008 season he (with the helpof the best hitting coach in baseball) attempted to remove a hitch from his swing that would in theory make his already great bat speed -Otherworldly. The process was going okay but was interrupted by almost three straight months of injury problems. He'll be fine when he's healthy again and you'll get him at a discount to boot.

Vladimir Guerrero OF Los Angeles Angels - Vlad is no longer the best outfielder in all the land, the player that made us drool over 40/40 possibilities. However, he still owns incredible power when his aching old bones are properly medicated. You can now get the lesser Vlad for far less of investment than was once the case, in fact he now goes for less than he's actually worth. That makes him a target in my mind.

Does B.J. Upton Deserve Another Chance?

Roundtable: Does Your Trade Pitch Work?

This week's Fantasy Baseball Roundtable has been posted at The Hardball Times. Derek Carty poses a question regarding trade talks:

Have you ever "pitched” or “marketed” a player in a trade and changed a potential trading partner's opinion about the player? Or, conversely, have you ever had you own opinion about a player changed by an opponent's pitch? Or could pushing a player actually have a negative effect and make a deal less attainable?

It is an interesting question that resulted in some interesting answers. Please, check it out by clicking here.

The Michael Vick Decision...

2008 Quarterbacks Ranked By Yards per Game

Name	Team	Comp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/G	Y/A	TD	Int	Sacks	YdsL
Drew Brees	NOR	413	635	65	5069	316.8	8	34	17	13	92
Kurt Warner	ARI	401	598	67.1	4583	286.4	7.7	30	14	26	182
Jay Cutler	DEN	384	616	62.3	4526	282.9	7.3	25	18	11	69
Matt Schaub	HOU	251	380	66.1	3043	276.6	8	15	10	23	149
Tony Romo	DAL	276	450	61.3	3448	265.2	7.7	26	14	20	123
Aaron Rodgers	GNB	341	536	63.6	4038	252.4	7.5	28	13	34	231
Philip Rivers	SDG	312	478	65.3	4009	250.6	8.4	34	11	25	151
Peyton Manning	IND	371	555	66.8	4002	250.1	7.2	27	12	14	86
Donovan McNabb	PHI	345	571	60.4	3916	244.8	6.9	23	11	23	149
Sage Rosenfels	HOU	116	174	66.7	1431	238.5	8.2	6	10	9	58
Matt Cassel	NWE	327	516	63.4	3693	230.8	7.2	21	11	47	219
Chad Pennington	MIA	321	476	67.4	3653	228.3	7.7	19	7	24	121
Shaun Hill	SFO	181	288	62.8	2046	227.3	7.1	13	8	23	148
David Garrard	JAC	335	535	62.6	3620	226.3	6.8	15	13	42	288
Jeff Garcia	TAM	244	376	64.9	2712	226	7.2	12	6	23	100
Brett Favre	NYJ	343	522	65.7	3472	217	6.7	22	22	30	213
Matt Ryan	ATL	265	434	61.1	3440	215	7.9	16	11	17	104
Brian Griese	TAM	110	184	59.8	1073	214.6	5.8	5	7	9	69
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	281	469	59.9	3301	206.3	7	17	15	46	284
Jake Delhomme	CAR	246	414	59.4	3288	205.5	7.9	15	12	20	130
Jason Campbell	WAS	315	506	62.3	3245	202.8	6.4	13	6	38	266
Eli Manning	NYG	289	479	60.3	3238	202.4	6.8	21	10	27	174
Kyle Orton	CHI	272	465	58.5	2972	198.1	6.4	18	12	27	160
Gus Frerotte	MIN	178	301	59.1	2157	196.1	7.2	12	15	29	164
Trent Edwards	BUF	245	374	65.5	2699	192.8	7.2	11	10	23	143
Jon Kitna	DET	68	120	56.7	758	189.5	6.3	5	5	15	89
J.T. O'Sullivan	SFO	128	220	58.2	1678	186.4	7.6	8	11	32	197
Tyler Thigpen	KAN	230	420	54.8	2608	186.3	6.2	18	12	26	162
Joe Flacco	BAL	257	428	60	2971	185.7	6.9	14	12	32	276
Carson Palmer	CIN	75	129	58.1	731	182.8	5.7	3	4	11	67
Marc Bulger	STL	251	440	57	2720	181.3	6.2	11	13	38	263

Get Ready for Rookies, Rookies Everywhere

As more and more Major League Baseball teams reshape their team-building philosophies from "sign free agents and trade minor leaguers" to more development-centric methods, we will see a greater and greater number of rookies and young players making rosters out of spring training. Rookies will be given longer chances and more opportunities to contribute than we are used to seeing from most teams. Conversely we are going to start to see older veterans, who have begun to fade, shuffled out of the majors sooner than was once the case.

For fantasy owners this is both good and bad news. The good news is this will mean that there are lots of interesting new players available on an annual basis. Rather than filling out the ends of your rosters with the Shawn Dunston, Omar Vizquel, and Ken Griffey Jr types, you will find yourself drafting more Daniel Murphy, Justin Masterson, and Ben Zobrist types. These are players whose upside has often been higher than their initial roles might indicate. Insouciant owners who continue to waste their endgame picks on old guys will be far less effective.

The bad news is this means more work for fantasy owners. You will have to work hard to gain an edge. That geek in your league (it could be you) that reads every page of the Baseball America Prospect Handbook and the Baseball Prospectus will suddenly be more of a contender than he was before. Sure there are many websites that publish Top 100 lists but they won't help you much if you don't understand why a player is ranked the way he is. You need to immerse yourself into reading the work of writers like Kevin Goldstein of BaseballProspectus.com, John Sickels of MinorLeagueBall.com, Adam Foster and his extremely talented staff at ProjectProspect.com (a lot of their focus is on gathering and filtering information for people who play in deep fantasy baseball leagues, so they can help you quite a bit), or any of the talented guys like Jim Callis and John Manuel at Baseball America, the standard for tracking minor leagues and top prospects. If you just commit to reading the work of these writers you will be way ahead of the curve of the changes coming to baseball's player population.

This happens to be the start of that point in the season where you start to see rookies added to the major league roster of contending teams. The trade deadline has passed and the stretch run has begun. Every team wants their best hands on deck. Sure, you will see even more rookies added in September but they will be there to watch and learn on the contending teams. This is when you should be using low FAAB bids to acquire players, especially if you can reserve them or you are not really in contention for a title. They may be very useful next season.

Advanced Fantasy Football: Magazines

This is a little bit dated but I thought there might still be some interest in this here. This is a combination of some info that appeared on another short-lived blog of mine (it could come back but there has been no demand so far).

The RotoWire Fantasy Football Guide 2009 ships July 15th and should be everywhere by July 25th. It will include the following according to their website:

• Player Rankings & Profiles For More Than 250 Players!
• Comprehensive Cheatsheets & Projected Stats
• Will Carroll's Injury Analysis
• College Fantasy Football Preview
• Top rookies, sleepers, projected 2009 stats and more!

I obviously haven't seen this magazine yet, but RotoWire.com is one of the most reliable sites for Fantasy Football News on the internet. They have a great group of writers/experts who I'm certain will deliver quality product. Rotowire also offers a discount on their premium service to magazine buyers. You can check out the offer at the link above.

Fanball.com Three-Pack


I know a few of the writers at Fanball.com and can confidently state that the writing on this three-pack of Fantasy Football Magazines will be very good. The Fanball.com package consists of three fantasy football magazines:

• The Annual Guide - Often referred to as "the Bible of fantasy football," the full-color Annual Guide is in its 10th year of bringing readers the best analysis in a distinctive entertaining style. Chock-full of team reports, cheat sheets, sleepers, busts, profiles and projections for every relevant player, and much more, it is the ultimate draft-day reference. (Mid-June)
• Just Cheat Sheets - Tired of those run-of-the-mill fantasy football rags? Then this is the publication for you. Jam-packed with cheat sheets, mock drafts, auctions and specific player write-ups for almost every scoring format imaginable, Fantasy Football Just Cheat Sheets 2009 has everything you need to trounce the competition on draft day. (Early July)
• The Draft Issue - The fantasy football landscape is constantly changing with injuries, signings, trades and job battles, which is why the Draft Issue is a must-have resource. It contains the most up-to-date rankings and content on the newsstand, ensuring you enter your fantasy draft with all of the information you need to build a championship roster. (Early August)
  

The Fanball.com Combo is a great deal at $19.95 for all three issues. With the average Sports Magazine Annual approaching ten dollars a book any discount is going to be very welcome. I also like the fact that the release dates are spread out so that the later magazines will actually contain updated information that could be the primary difference between this magazine and many of the others.

Rotoman's 2009 Fantasy Football Guide

I consider the Rotoman's guide an Old School fantasy magazine because it features the work of so many experienced fantasy writers and experts such as the great staff of RotoRob.com and the Rotoman himself. They've made a few changes to the guide this year. They've finally arranged the capsules by position rather than alphabetically, a welcomed change for many frequent buyers.

The mag also features the KFFL Injury Guide, Strength of schedule, mock drafts, rookie reports, and the annual Overlooked/Over-Hyped blurbs throughout the magazine. This is good stuff and a magazine I'll pick up. It is available now.

Fantasy Football Index 2009

I love this magazine and the baseball version. One of my favorite features is the survey of fantasy experts. They are asked all sorts of questions from their favorite sleepers to players to avoid. They also offer a wide variety of cheat sheets and rankings. There is always a mock draft or two as well.

Fantasy Football Index magazine: $7.99
Fantasy Football Index includes 200 pages of player ratings, team analysis, stat projections, defensive player analysis, unique stat charts, sleeper picks, rule suggestions, offensive line analysis, and more -- plus passwords needed to access some web pages in the Toolbox area of the Fantasy Index website. The price includes shipping via USPS first-class mail, and there's no sale tax unless you live in Washington state. (mailed to subscribers July 1st - should be in stores Mid-July)

This is the one magazine I've actually subscribed to receive, because I want it that badly. I like most of you don't depend on magazines for analysis but like you I love having them for reading on the bus or in the bathroom.

The Roto Times Guide to Winning Fantasy Football ($6.99)

Roto Times has a collection of the best and most experienced fantasy football experts in the business. This guide is a must have if for no other reason than it includes Bob Lung's annual Quality Game Scores articles. This is one of the best performance predictors available.

Expert analysis from expert league winners, player profiles, mock drafts, player values, rookies to watch, team and position overviews and the best projections anywhere. Includes free update in late August. The Roto Times Guide to Winning Fantasy Football will be shipped the week of July 25.

The Street&Smith and Sporting News Fantasy Football annuals are now just one book. The cover image is from last year's annual because the only photo of this year's cover was ridiculously small. This magazine is supposedly already on the magazine stands although I have not seen it yet.

Fantasy Football 2009 $7.99
The Sporting News Fantasy Football annual proves why it is number one with features like exclusive player rankings and projections, NFL depth charts, a pull out cheat sheet and over 500 individual scouting reports. All of this plus “7 Must-Know items to win your league” and other draft day tips will be everything needed to help readers become number one of their fantasy football leagues.

Together Street & Smith and the Sporting News have a long history of solid publications. Although sometimes both magazines cater to the shallower leagues, it still contains lots of useful information and entertaining reading. The scouting reports are great for newbie owners who need to double check a player before drafting him. Plus you get three-year stats for just about every player. I usually buy it as one of the first releases of the season.

2009 Footballguys Strategy Guide Magazine - FREE

This is a fantastic resource for Fantasy Football participants at every level. It includes everything you need to dominate your drafts this season. It has taken me more than a week to finish reading it and I'm tempted to print it out and place it in a binder so I can keep it forever. It is that good.

Here's what the Football Guys have to say about their own product:

David and I have decided to produce our Footballguys 2009 Strategy Guide Magazine in a pdf that you can download online instead of printing the magazine and selling from the newsstand. The price to download this pdf online? NONE. NADA. ZIP. As in FREE. The magazine that we would have normally written in May, printed in June and put on the newsstand in July is now available to you on June 5th. For FREE. We figured if we were going to write the magazine in June, we might as well make it available to you as soon as we finished writing it. Pretty much like we do everything else. It's not conventional wisdom to give away a product we used to charge $8 bucks for. But we know things are tight out there. Call it our Footballguys Stimulus Package. You get the 2009 Footballguys Magazine for FREE. Then you take it from there. Check out the link in the headline. Let us know what you think. Share it with your friends if you really want to help us. But mostly, enjoy.