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Roger Clemens Not on List of 103 Positive Testers

According to a story in this morning's New York Times, Roger Clemens did not test positive for any banned substances in the 2003 round of testing that led to the present PED policies. Clemen's lawyer Rusty Hardin obtained the test results by waiving the player's right to privacy regarding the results. These results have been passed on to Congress which has been investigating the claims against Clemens.

“The results show Roger was negative in every respect, performance-enhancing drugs and masking agents,” Hardin said. “The only reason why I mention it now is because Roger is being mentioned with Sosa and Rodriguez, who have been tied to 2003 tests, and Roger didn’t test positive.”

This is huge for Clemens who has struggled to clear his name in face of accusations from his former trainer and statements from former teammate Andy Pettitte. While this is far from the end of the investigation it must give Clemens a bit of a boost. It is much more difficult to disprove a claim than to provide evidence in favor of one. This is a sample of the dis-proving evidence that Clemens needs.

Unfortunately it won't be enough for anyone convinced of Clemen's guilt in the matter. His former trainer, Brian McNamee's statements in the Mitchell Report made claims about use from 1998 to 2001. He provided needles and used gauze that he insists he saved for nearly a decade as evidence to support his claims. No matter how ridiculous that sounds, it is being taken seriously by Congress.

If you need something supporting the claims that Congress is after a PR win more than the truth look no further than their release of medical records showing that Clemens was treated for a possibly drug-related abscess in 1998. An abscess is a localized collection of pus that generally develops in response to infection. An abscess is typically painful, and it appears as a swollen area that is warm to the touch. The skin surrounding an abscess typically appears pink or red. But they could just as easily released the negative tests at the same time but they chose to keep the non-damning evidence to themselves.

“The medical records were in the same stuff that we sent with the testing results,” Hardin said. “And it’s strange to me that they chose to make the stuff that made Roger look bad from the medical records public and not the drug-testing information.”

I have said it more than once that as someone that has been falsely accused I feel I have to give Roger Clemens and the other accused the benefit of the doubt until conclusive evidence is revealed. On the Fourth of July it should be easy to remember one of the tenets of American Society used to be Innocent Until Proven Guilty.

Making a Winner of the Jackson Buzz: Part One

A few weeks back I boasted that with half the season still available any team could still make a run at first place. It would require being aggressive and taking some chances but it could be done. Steve, who owns the Jackson Buzz is willing to let me guide him in this experiment. I've broken done this process into a few steps so that they make for an interesting mini-series of articles.

Step One: Evaluating the Buzz and their situation

Step Two: Evaluating the other rosters for trade possibilities

Step Three: Scanning the Waiver Wire for Free Talent

The Jackson Buzz are part of a 14 team mixed league with 5x5 scoring. This is a fairly deep league but not so deep that we can't find the occasional gem on the free-agent list. Here is what Steve had to say about his own team:

All right Jon, you're on.

I've attached Excel spreadsheets with the rosters for the whole league, and the current standings. We've got weekly lineups, unlimited FAAB and free roster moves. So I can troll the waiver wire for whatever help I need. I've got a lot of faith in the guys I have (I just recently acquired Morneau for pretty cheap) and people in the league will deal when it makes sense.

So here's my thinking. I'd like to see if I can't craft a deal for a decent 2B. I was offered Aaron Hill in a classic sell-high deal but he wanted far too much for my taste. The offer was Hill and Micah Owings for Gavin Floyd and Matt Garza. I think that an SP for a decent 2B wouldn't be a bad idea at all. I'm also thinking that it might not be a bad idea to pick up some solid middle relief and try to cheat my WHIP and ERA down with guys like Belisario, Troncoso, Darren O'Day, Okajima, etc.

My roster is the last one on the spreadsheet. If you need these in another format just let me know. I look forward to hearing what you think. And one other thought: this is my league to experiment, so I'm down with any idea, no matter how off the wall it may seem.

- Steve

Here is the Buzz roster with salaries

C Joe Mauer 13
C John Baker 2

I expected better from John Baker this season but Joe Mauer has been pretty awesome since returning from the disabled list. I think Baker will bounce back a bit in the second half. Overall this is a solid couple of catchers.

1B Justin Morneau 27
3B Garrett Atkins 13
CI Billy Butler 6

You can immediately see a problem at the corner positions. There just isn't close to the power you need from these spots, especially in a mixed league. This is an area we will work to upgrade. Justin Morneau is great but he may help us more if he can be moved for two more boring but productive corners. Garrett Atkins has been better lately but he could also be traded and wind up on a contender's bench.

2B Ian Stewart 5
SS Christian Guzman 1
MI Willie Bloomquist 0

You have to love Ian Stewart at $5, he looks like he just might be an above-average third baseman. Christian Guzman is a very solid shortstop who hits for average and steals a few bases.

OF Fernando Martinez 0
OF Juan Rivera 1
OF B.J. Upton 29
OF Justin Upton 5
OF Shane Victorino 17

This outfield will be better in the second half than it was in the first. B.J. Upton should provide the Buzz with a large upgrade in production. Juan Rivera has been solid and is gaining the respect of the Angels coaching staff. Fernando Martinez is a weakness right now.

U1 Nate Schierholtz 0
U2 Jim Thome 3

Nate Schierholtz is moving up the rankings quickly and should be huge for us in the second half of the season. Jim Thome also seems to be heating up a bit.

SP1 Gavin Floyd 2
SP2 Matt Garza 5
SP3 Zack Greinke 9
SP4 Gil Meche 7
SP5 Rick Porcello 2
SP6 Kevin Slowey

This is a fairly good pitching staff made even stronger by Zack Greinke's hot start. Rick Porcello has been pretty good but may be even better trade bait as a hot youngster. Kevin Slowey came to the Buzz with Matt Capps in a recent trade of Dustin Pedroia.

RP1 Brad Lidge 20
RP2 LaTroy Hawkins 0
RP3 Brian Wilson 13
RP4 Dan Meyer 0

There is plenty of potential for saves here and we'll probably trade some of it for our other needs.

The Buzz Bench

1B Ryan Garko 1
OF David Dejesus 1
OF/1B Daniel Murphy 1
OF Ryan Spilborghs 1
OF Marcus Thames 1
OF Carlos Gomez 5

SP David Price 3
SP Jordan Zimmerman 1
RP Matt Capps

The Buzz Injured List

Akinori Iwamura
Connor Jackson 9

The next step is to look at the standings and identify categories where we can make progress relatively quickly. Overall the Buzz is 48points out of first place. Not ideal but with half the season left and Steve willing to take chances we can make a strong effort. It should be more fun than sucking anyway.

Batting Average is a difficult category to predict. But the Buzz is batting .275 in seventh place, just .008 out of first place. With a little luck we can gain points in this category without making radical changes.

Home Runs is the worst category for the Buzz. Steve is in last place in the category with 61 homers between the Buzz and first place. But two points are just four homers away and we'll be sure to get those points at least. Sixth place in the category is just 23 homers away and we'll make that a long term goal.

Runs is a decent category for the Buzz. Steve's team is fifth in runs and just 46 runs out of first place. The next three teams in the standings are just 20 or so runs ahead. We'll make this category a priority.

RBI is another weak category. Our team is in ninth place and 130 RBI out of first place. This will be tough. But there are a couple of teams just 30 or so RBI ahead so we'll just target those points for now.

Stolen Bases is another strong category for the Buzz. The team is in sixth place but just six stolen bases out of first and just 13 stolen bases out of first in the category. This will be another priority for the Buzz.

Offensively the Buzz is a .300 hitting, 61 homers, 46 Run, 130 RBI, 13 stolen base player out of first in every category. If we are to hit our more modest goals we need to hit around .290 and gain 23 homers, 46 runs, 40 RBI, and 13 stolen bases which is definitely doable. That alone would gain us about 23 points.

ERA is okay for the Buzz. The squad is in fifth with a 3.99 ERA, just 0.45 out of first. This is a difficult category to gain in without gaining a ton of quality innings. But we'll do our best.

Strikeouts is not a good category for us. The Buzz is in ninth place, 100 K's out of first place. This isn't undo-able but it would require gaining a lot of innings which might work against us a bit. We can hit sixth in the category by gaining 45 strikeouts so we'll try to do that.

Saves the Buzz is okay with. Steve's team is in third with 45 saves, seven out of second and 16 out of first place. We probably won't try to gain in this category, in fact we might make it worse by trading a closer.

Wins is a tightly packed category in this league. From worst to first in the category the teams have 38, 39, 39, 40 (the Buzz), 40, 40, 44, 46, 48, 49, 50, and 54 wins. We can probably make some gains in this category without too much effort.

WHIP is pretty tightly packed as well. The best team has a 1.24 WHIP, the Buzz in tenth have a 1.39 WHIP but are just 0.09 from third place. This can be done with a little luck.

Pitching is not as serious a problem as the offense. If we could make all of our net gains in just one player he would need to pitch well over 100 innings over the balance of the season with 10-12 wins, an ERA around 3.00 or better, a WHIP of 1.15 and at least a strikeout per inning. If it happened we would gain close to 30 points which would put us way over our goal.

In Part Two we will look at the other rosters and see if we can find trades to make that will move us towards our goals.

A Name to Remember: Aroldis Chapman

We have no idea if Aroldis Chapman can even come close to matching the hype created around his signing the last few days but he is definitely a player all fantasy baseball owners should have on their watch lists. If you are in a league with a mid-season farm draft or with very liberal rules for signing free agents, Chapman is worth speculating on.

If the name sounds familiar it is likely the result of watching him in the World Baseball Classic, pitching for the Cuban team. He recently defected while playing in a tournament in the Netherlands with the intention of signing a large contract with an MLB team. Although his performance statistics were mediocre, he impressed many scouts with a fastball that hit triple digits on the radar gun. He also throws a promising change-up pitch.

He has been compared to Jose Contreras another Cuban defector but he is younger and supposedly has the superior talent. If that's true you can expect the bidding to approach $50-60 million. But Chapman is still a raw talent. He will require a team with strong coaches and preferably a reputation for getting good results from raw talented arms.

Other International Signings: (info is courtesy of BaseballAmerica.com)

• The Cardinals signed Dominican outfielder Wagner Mateo for $3.1 million.
• The Yankees signed Dominican catcher Gary Sanchez for $3 million as well as Dominican shortstop Damian Arredondo and Dominican righthander Christopher Cabrera for $400,000.
• The Athletics signed Venezuelan shortstop Wilfredo Solano, Junior Martinez, a Venezuelan third baseman, and Venezuelan Outfielder Alfredo Sosa.
• The Blue Jays signed Venezuelan catcher Santiago Nessy.
• The Brewers signed Dominican right fielder Jose Pena.
• The Astros signed Dominican shortstop Jonathan Mejia.
• The Pirates signed outfielder Ping-Hung Chi, righthander Shen-Cin Hong, and first baseman Chih-Wei Hsu all of Taiwan.
  

Eight Ways to Become a Better Fantasy League Commissioner

If you want to have a successful league you need to have good leadership of the league. In most leagues that leadership is in the form of a commissioner. It is not the only way but it is the most common way. My local AL and NL-only leagues actually utilize a Board of Governors which is a very good way to go, especially if you have a lot of opinionated owners and what league does not? But forming a BOG is a subject for another article. Right now I want to share with you Eight Ways to Become a Better Commissioner.

1. Take your job seriously but don't become a dictator - The commissioner's role is not to force the other owners to accept his terms. Rather the Commish should be guiding the league so that things go smoothly. When a decision that affects every team becomes a priority, the league should be voting so that the majority rules. The commish should be making the small decisions that need to made and enforcing the rules.
   
2. Build a League Constitution and be certain that every member of the league has access to it and understands it - Most of the disputes that come up in fantasy leagues are the result of misunderstanding the rules. A written constitution (constantly updated) will end most disputes. The commissioner should not have to argue his point but rather point to the rule that decides the argument.
3. Do not become angry when owners make mistakes or misunderstand the rules thereby forcing you to take action - Every season an owner is going to wait too long to activate a player or pickup an ineligible player or bid FAAB dollars he doesn't actually have. The commish should not become angry at this. It should just be dealt with in the most matter-of-fact fashion possible. It is okay to provide an owner(s) with a reminder about a rule when necessary but avoid making personal observations when delivering them. An owner may be an idiot but you don't have to tell them so. Which leads perfectly into...
4. All of your communication with the league as a whole should be done in a neutral tone - As commissioner you should never come off as snide or arrogant or the league will turn against you. You should speak as commissioner with the best interests of the league in mind. Bad mouthing other owners or embarrassing them is not in the league's best interest. You should be as impartial as possible, like a referee or umpire. If you insult the owners in any way you will damage your standing with the league. Keep your communication clear and to the point, especially when you are enforcing rules or correcting mistakes. The more irrelevant comments you make the more insulting you potentially become. "Player A is not available for FAAB bidding until he comes off the DL as noted in Section Three of the League Constitution" is good. "Player A is not available for FAAB until he comes off the DL. I have mentioned this many times and every owner should be clear on this by now. I DON"T HAVE TIME FOR THIS!" is bad.
   
5. Keep Fantasy League accounting separate from your personal accounting - Most commissioners also find themselves appointed the league secretary and treasurer as well. You should keep an organized ledger of all financial transactions made for the league. Keep all the receipts and paperwork involved. It is not that anyone doubts your honesty but a good commish can explain where every cent went. It would be a good idea to open a bank account just for the league (especially for big money leagues). My local leagues use the interest to subsidize banquets and our other scheduled get-togethers.
   
6. Do not assume that every bad trade is the result of collusion - Collusion is a lot rarer than most owners believe. The commish should only investigate a trade when the majority of the league insists on it (and the League Constitution should support such an action). A trade that appears to be bad may look bad when examined in a player A for player B context but there are many other factors to consider. When such an issue arises discretely ask each owner why they made the trade. You may be surprised to learn that Juan Pierre for Tim Lincecum is fair when examined in a different context. If the owners can explain their reasoning that should be the end of it. Just because you do not agree is not reason to veto a trade.
7. Keep every owner involved via good communication - As commissioner you should be in regular communication with every member of the league. Whether you do this by sending out regular newsletters and e-mails or by making phone calls is irrelevant, as long as every owner feels comfortable coming to you with any complaints or questions they may have. As commissioner you should be available to every owner for league related matters. The other owners should all know how to best contact you whether by e-mail or phone or both. You don't have to become everyone's best friend but you should treat them as fellow members of a very exclusive club, because they are.
   
8. Be vigilant - Nothing upsets owners more than retro-active changes because of mistakes. Every owner should be checking the rosters of every other owner but it is your job to make the corrections. If the rosters are constantly out of date or trades linger in limbo waiting to be input, owners will get angry and lose respect for you in your position. If you can't handle the work yourself let the league approve a co-commish to help you in your duties. Just be clear about who is responsible for what.

Are you the commissioner of a fantasy league? What methods does your league use to make things run smoothly and keep the owners happy? Discuss in the comments section.

Mail Bag: Trade for Grady Sizemore? and More!

I am mostly caught up with e-mails from last week. If you haven't seen a response or you've been holding back for some reason, now is the time. You can reach me at Jon@advancedfantasybaseball.com I usually respond within 24 hours and usually much much less than that. And remember the more information you give me the better my response will be. Thanks everyone, please spread the word!

I am in a 4x4 league with American League ONLY & a cap of $26.00 AND I am in 4th to last place & I have Francisco Liriano locked in at $2.10 / 2007-2010. I have been offered Chris Ray (see below) by a contending team, now I sort of still have faith in Liriano but was wondering if it would be worth it to me to trade Liriano for 1 of the following to get out of locking me into him next year at $2.10? Like I said I was offerd Chris Ray but I can counter with 1 of his other bench / injured guys? Your thoughts on the following:

1.) Should I trade Liriano for one of the guys below?

2.) If yes, then who would you want? Please give me top 3 choices if there are even a top 3 choices to list.

Ray, Chris RP BAL .10 2008
Lowell, Mike 3B BOS 1.80 2009
Lowrie, Jed SS BOS 1.00 2008
Aviles, Mike SS KC .30 2008
Matsuzaka, Daisuke SP BOS 1.50 2007 - 2010
Brignac, Reid SS TB .20 2009

Thanks, Jay

Hey Jay,

I still have faith in Liriano coming around but at $2.10 (especially in a 4x4) I can see why you might like to get out from beneath the contract. Chris Ray at .10 isn't a bad option. His talent is great, unfortunately George Sherrill is pitching very well and saves may not come for a while. But at that price I think he'll have value as a quality middle reliever. I'm assuming that you are more in dump mode than fight for every point mode. I would ask for two off this list of players and see if he bites.

1. Mike Avilles .30 - Just announced he'll miss the rest of the season after having Tommy John Surgery. But this isn't as big a deal for hitter as it is for pitchers. I think he will greatly improve on his value in 2010.
2. Reid Brignac .20 - He proved in a recent call-up that he has some skills. The Rays are going to have to play him or trade him next year if they want to get any value from him. He is a former top prospect that underachieved for a while. I think he'll still be a top 10 SS in the AL in the not too distant future.
3. Jed Lowrie 1.00 - Pretty obvious that SS is a weak position in the AL. I like Lowrie to have a Pedroia-like development. This is not to say I think he'll have a MVP season but I think he'll be a very solid middle infielder.
4. Mike Lowell 1.80 - Lowell is hurting right now but I still believe he'll have an impact after the break. he just needs to have regular rest. At 1.80 he is a decent keep for 2010 if he stays in the AL.
5. Chris Ray .10 - A solid middle reliever who has a chance at saves in the future. See comments above.
6. Dice-K 1.50 - Dice-K needs to get straight again but I like his chances at a comeback. His stuff is still too good to ignore.

***

Hi Jon,

First off -- want to say that I love the site. Found you via a link on Razzball (another favorite of mine) and really appreciate the insight you provide.

Decided I'd take you up on the free advice offer. I have a trade in the works that could really define my season and I'm torn. I'm in a 10-team 6x6 roto league that counts OPS and Holds. I'm in a position where I need to clear an OF spot because I have Manny and Josh Hamilton coming back within the next several days-- both of whom I think will produce as expected. I also have Braun, Justin Upton, Crawford, Nelson Cruz and Brad Hawpe starting for me so I'm deep.

I have the opportunity to trade Cruz and Hawpe for Roy Halladay and Sizemore. Normally I would do this in a heartbeat but Grady's elbow (and the news that he will most likely need surgery in the offseason) scares the bejesus out of me. I can sweeten this deal by getting Slowey for Lowe as well (is that an upgrade?) and do need to gain significant ground in wins, WHIP and ERA so Halladay would be huge. I just worry that I'm giving up way too much offensive production for a guy that might get shut down in August because his team is 30 games out of first. On the other hand, if Grady stays healthy and produces then this appears to be a steal for me.

Is this trade worth the risk? Really look forward to your thoughts on this one.

Thanks Jon!

You have a pretty interesting situation here. You obviously have a stacked outfield.

Manny Ramirez
Josh Hamilton
Ryan Braun
Carl Crawford
Nelson Cruz
Brad Hawpe
Justin Upton

This is a very deep group. Any combination of five would be a winner for you and adding Sizemore to the mix just makes it that much more exciting. If you did the trade you would be left with an outfield and utility of Ramirez, Hamilton, Sizemore, Braun, Crawford, Upton -- even in a ten team league that is impressive. If Sizemore is healthy he is likely better than either Cruz or Hawpe. Trading one of these guys for Halladay is a great move for you. The question becomes is gaining Halladay worth the risk of trading Hawpe for Sizemore. I would have to say that it is.

In your best case scenario Sizemore can finish the season and plays up to his normal standards and provides you with close to 20/20 in the second half and you get an ace starter in Halladay. The worst case scenario is Sizemore gets hurt and you have to find a new utility player. You still get the upside of adding Halladay. You are definitely taking a risk but I think a good one. You always run the risk of injuries. Any one of your other outfielders could be hurt at any time, its just part of the game. Sizemore would not be the first player to play through this type of injury. I also would not be shocked to see the Indians DH Sizemore quite a bit and give Hafner some starts at first base.

I would do this deal. Thanks for sharing with me.

***

Hi Jon,

Need some more pitching advice for week 14. Again, I start 6 (min. 4 SP, min 1 RP and 1 utility) in a 12 team points based H2H League.


• Correia @ ARI (Davis), @ SF (Zito)
• Cueto @ PHI (Hamels), @ NYM (Santana)
• Dempster vs. ATL (Vasquez), vs. STL (most likely to happen if CHI reshuffles its rotation right before the break
• Greinke @ DET (French)
• Jackson vs. CLE (Lee)
• Marquis vs. WAS (Stammen), vs. ATL (Jurrjens)
• Danks vs. CLE (Pavano)
• Nolasco @ ARI (Haren)

• Franklin @ MIL (3), @ CHI (3)
• Aardsma vs. BAL (3), vs. TEX (4)
• Soria @ DET (3), @ BOS (4)

Thanks,

Sean

Hey Sean,

Hopefully I can do better than last week for you...

Greinke @DET is a must start.
Jackson vs CLE
Danks vs CLE
Nolasco @ARI
Correia @ARI and @ SF
Soria
Franklin

Good luck!

***

Hey Jon

Wanted to get your thoughts on a few trade offers I'm thinking about. This league includes OPS so please bear that in mind.

Jason Bay's owner is looking to move him and pick up some speed. Here are 2 offers he's posed to me:
1. Bay & Stephen Drew for Kinsler & Victorino
2. Bay & Zimmerman for Victorino & Adrian Gonzalez

Thanks a ton!

Dan

Hey Dan,

I'm not excited about either deal for you. I would not do the Kinsler deal. The Gonzalez deal is doable (I would not do it but it isn't an awful deal) but if he's really desperate for steals I would expect him to make you a better offer. One that doesn't end up taking away more power than you actually get back. Offer him Victorino for just Bay that is much fairer than you throwing in a top player for a mid-tier performer.

Good luck.

Moving Up: Nyjer Morgan OF Washington Nationals

Outfielder Nyjer Morgan is not a player destined to be a long term fantasy star he is 29 years old and in his first season as a fulltime regular. But he does have his uses in NL-only leagues and should see a nice boost to his fantasy value after yesterday's trade that sent him from the Pittsburgh Pirates to the Washington Nationals. If you own Morgan you should be very happy right now.

Morgan is batting .277/.351/.356 with two homeruns and 18 stolen bases. The Nationals plan to have Morgan play centerfield and leadoff everyday. He will be in front of a much better offense and should see a boost in his runs scored and even his RBI totals. Manny Acta tends to allow his players to run like mad which should see Morgan approach 40-50 stolen bases this season. Make no mistake, Morgan is not a efficient base stealer but unless your league penalizes for caught stealings (or you are a Nats fan), it really isn't your problem.

Morgan has the skills to take advantage of his speed. He is an excellent contact hitter. He doesn't walk much but enough to know that a pitcher has to throw around the plate to get him out. He isn't a free swinger, he waits for his pitch. He has amazing speed and may be one of the ten fastest players in MLB. He doesn't have much power and hits most pitches on the ground. But is more likely to smack the occassional homerun than a player like Juan Pierre. Just not much more likely. He is an excellent defensive outfielder which means the Nats will be ,motivated to keep him in the lineup even during mini-slumps. He is not a great player but there is also little not to like.

Morgan should be owned in all NL-only and deep leagues and in all but the shallowest of mixed leagues. Although I like his value this season, Morgan is not a very long term keeper candidate. If an owner in your league is desperate for steals I would strongly consider making an offer. Treat Morgan as you would any speed-centric player.

I am still answering the e-mails that accumulated during my computerless weekend. If you are waiting for an answer you should see it in the next day or so.