Hope for B.J. Upton Owners (and Ortiz...kinda)

I've received over a dozen e-mails from B.J. Upton owners this week. Everyone has the same question. When will Upton start to hit? Well, I obviously don't have those answers and no one possibly could. But the guys at DRaysBay.com have posted an article that just might provide Upton owners with a little hope for the future.

Tampa Bay Ray's Tickets as low as $5!


It's all based around Upton's BABIP on different types of batted balls. It does ignore Upton's reduced walk rate and elevated strikeout rate. His HR/FB is also even worse than it was last season. So there is a lot of reason to be pessimistic. That said I have complete faith that he will turn it all around this season.

From DRaysBay.com:

You can make two arguments about Upton's lack of GB hits:

1. He's lost speed.

2. He's been unlucky.

You know which way this is going. Upton's Speed Score is above his career average and his fielding remains excellent. Either he's become the most mechanically sound baserunner within the span of a season or he's still pretty damn fast. Given that Upton's strategy for stealing bases is run on the first move and outrun the relay throw to second, I'm going to go with the latter.

I still think Upton is going to be a beast this season. I wouldn't pay full price but if an owner in your league is offering discounted Upton I would leap at the deal. If you're holding Upton, you've probably received a ton of low ball offers. Keep the faith and don't give in. There is still A LOT of the season left. Check out Upton's career statistics below, courtesy of FanGraphs.com.

LABR: Big Papi has found a believer

Season	Team	BB%	K%	OBP	SLG	ISO	Spd	BABIP	wOBA
2004	Devil Rays	8.60%	28.90%	0.324	0.409	0.151	5.3	0.339	0.323
2006	Devil Rays (AAA)	14.00%	22.40%	0.374	0.394	0.126	7.4	0.329	0.360
2006	Devil Rays	6.90%	22.90%	0.302	0.291	0.046	4.8	0.313	0.275
2007	Devil Rays (A+)	22.70%	11.80%	0.375	0.412	0.176	1.9	0.214	0.356
2007	Devil Rays (AAA)	0.00%	14.30%	0.429	0.857	0.429	0.1	0.400	0.562
2007	Devil Rays	12.10%	32.50%	0.386	0.508	0.209	4.9	0.399	0.387
2008	Rays	15.40%	25.20%	0.383	0.401	0.128	5.7	0.351	0.354
2008	Rays	7.00%	24.20%	0.333	0.652	0.364	8.7	0.279	0.425
2009	Rays (A+)	30.80%	22.20%	0.643	0.444	0.000	3.2	0.571	0.489
2009	Rays	11.80%	32.30%	0.297	0.290	0.086	7.4	0.290	0.282

Jake Fox May Solve Your Joey Votto Problems

The Cincinnati Reds star first baseman, Joey Votto, has been placed on the disabled list with "Stress Problems" which we're left to assume are the result of his inner ear problem. Why the Reds are calling this stress is a mystery to me. But the Reds do a lot of things I don't understand. Why was Joey Votto continuing to fly around the country with an ear infection anyway? They made a serious problem even worse by not simply putting him on the DL when they discovered the problem. They've also hesitated to disable their other injured players. Brandon Phillips is now playing with a fracture in his thumb. If he keeps batting, it will only get worse.

Mark Sheldon of MLB.com:

Dizziness from the inner ear infection that's been dogging Reds first baseman Joey Votto struck again Friday night. The club has avoided putting Votto on the disabled list for more than two weeks but that could change soon.

Votto, the team's best hitter, started against the Brewers but came out of the game before the Reds took the field for the bottom of the second inning. Catcher Ramon Hernandez moved to first base and Ryan Hanigan took over behind the plate.

After the game in the manager's office, a 40-minute closed-door meeting was held with Reds manager Dusty Baker, general manager Walt Jocketty, head trainer Mark Mann and Votto.

No roster move was announced once the door opened, but Baker said that Votto would not play on Saturday.

Votto emerged from the meeting and appeared to be in a good mood but declined to comment to reporters.

"Not right now," Votto said.

Baker was asked if Votto was OK.

"No , not really," a somber Baker responded. "He felt similar symptoms that he's been feeling in the past and just came out."

It was the third time since May 11 that dizzy spells have forced Votto out of a game. On May 21 after a battery of tests, the inner ear infection was revealed.

The conditions of the inner ear infection can be exasperated by flying, which Votto did with the club on Thursday during the off-day. Unlike with the previous incidents that happened on the West Coast following flights, the trip to Milwaukee is a relatively short one.

Replacing Votto, especially in NL-only leagues is going to be difficult. But if you're in a weekly transaction league or just a league with some owners who are slow on the draw there may be an option for you. The Chicago Cubs recently called up slugger Jake Fox. Fox is a former catcher who has struggled to find a position. He has spent most of his time recently at outfield and first base but has also spent time at third base. The guys at the Fake Teams Blog have posted an informative article that may discourage you from picking him up.

But after you're done being discouraged note Fox's slash line of .423/.503/.886 that's insanely good. I don't care how bad his defense is or what league he's been playing in or what he's been injecting (that's just a joke I haven't heard a thing). Fox is blocked by Derek Lee at first base but the Cubs could squeeze him into the outfield to fire up the offense. Fox is also a prime candidate to DH in inter-league games. I haven't checked the schedule for the Cub's AL games (okay I did, six games against the White Sox and Tigers to end June) but I'm trying to be optimistic here. Fox was leading the minors with 17 homeruns at the time he was called up. If there is a manager on the planet I trust to fit to fit a bat like this into the lineup it is Lou Pinella. I won the FAAB Bidding in my primary NL-only league with a $32 bid. Even if he doesn't play much it can't be much worse than collecting awful at-bats from the scrubs likely to be on the waiver wire at this point in the season.

Jake Fox Statistics Courtesy of FanGraphs.com

Season	Team	BB%	K%	OBP	SLG	ISO	BABIP	wRC	wRAA	wOBA
2006	Cubs (A+)	9.80%	19.70%	0.383	0.574	0.261	0.337	55.8	21.7	0.421
2006	Cubs (AA)	4.50%	22.80%	0.304	0.435	0.166	0.326	24.2	2.6	0.336
2007	Cubs (AA)	4.50%	20.10%	0.327	0.504	0.220	0.312	57.2	11	0.367
2007	Cubs (AAA)	4.80%	23.20%	0.343	0.535	0.253	0.314	17.8	3.5	0.381
2007	Cubs	6.70%	14.30%	0.200	0.286	0.143	0.167	0.4	-1.5	0.214
2008	Cubs (AA)	10.60%	18.80%	0.397	0.580	0.273	0.324	89.3	32.8	0.428
2008	Cubs (AAA)	1.70%	26.50%	0.242	0.479	0.256	0.25	11.9	-4.4	0.305
2009	Cubs (AAA)	10.20%	18.80%	0.503	0.886	0.463	0.442	57.3	34.7	0.574
2009	Cubs	0.00%	25.00%	0.750	1.000	0.250	1	1.9	1.4	0.764

What is your favorite source of Fantasy Baseball Info?

This week's Poll Question has huge act to follow after last week's monster. Where do you get your fantasy basebll information. The Expert's Poll revealed that Pod Casts are a very popular source of information. But can they replace the more traditional sources? If you use a combination it would great if you could share to what degree you use each in the comments. I'd love to hear from as many people as last week.

Don't forget to tell us why you voted the way you did in the comments section. I really want to hear from you.

The Internet's Favorite Fantasy Baseball Expert Poll Results

I want to thanks the hundreds of people who voted in the Favorite Fantasy Baseball Expert Poll. If I had to do it again (and I think I will do it again, next year) I would do it a bit differently. First, I would use Poll Software that allowed me to list more candidates. As many different popular experts were excluded. Second, I would make it more of a tournament by splitting the various experts into different categories and make it a series of polls that would culminate in the one true favorite fantasy baseball expert. Third, I would be certain to contact all of the various contenders (before posting) to allow them the opportunity to send their fans to vote.

As it is I think we did pretty well. It should not be shocking that the largest vote-getters come from the most popular (and biggest) websites. Those are the sites that I expected to get many of the votes. More surprising was the huge support for a couple of smaller sites (in Mass Media Appeal I mean). Razzball.com was an early favorite and they were not even listed on the poll. But many voters chose "other" and wrote them in via the comments section.

Just like your fantasy league we pay out to the TOP SIX spots. Considering the hundreds of fantasy experts out there this is a pretty exclusive group.



The Winners

First Place: Lenny Melnick of Fantasy Pros 911 - I should have an interview with Lenny posted in the next few days. Lenny Melnick is old school. He and his partner Irwin Zwilling were in the original ToutWars expert league and they are former NL-only champions and two-time LABR winners. Lenny is not only knowledgeable but his podcasts and radio shows re some of the most entertaining options on BlogTalkRadio. He is always willing to lend a hand to any of his listeners, if they will only ask him for it.

Second Place: Cory Schwartz of MLB.com - I think it is very interesting that our top two vote getters are most known for their podcasts and radioshows. I think that gives us an indication of where the industry is going. Fantasy owners haven't had to scour the newsstands and bookstores to find information in a long time. But now they don't even need to read. They can just login to blogtalkradio or MLB.com's podcasts and find whatever information they need. Cory Schwartz is the Director of Statistics for MLB.com. His Fantasy 411 blog and podcast is extremely popular. It may be the most popular fantasy podcast on the net.

Third Place : Ron Shandler of BaseballHQ.com - Ron Shandler introduced many fantasy baseball participants to sabermetrics and more advanced fantasy baseball methods. Baseball HQ is also responsible for bringing many baseball fans into the fantasy sports industry. Shandler has led the campaign to make other industries take the fantasy sports industry seriously. He is the inventor of the LIMA Plan and the founder of ToutWars.

Fourth Place: Matt Berry of ESPN - Matthew Berry is one of the funniest fantasy sports writers out there. No surprise that he comes to the Fantasy Sports Industry from Hollywood. Some people love him, some hate him, but everyone reads his LOVE/HATE articles along with the tons of fantastic fantasy content available at ESPN. Before Berry took over much of the content at ESPN/fantasy was considered a joke. But now they are a site to be respected and even emulated. I probably wouldn't be writing this blog if not for Matthew Berry giving me a chance at thetalentedmrroto.com. Now, he just needs to do something about his horrible fantasy draft shows on ESPN. Call me, I have a better plan for you...

Fifth Place: Jason Grey of ESPN - Anyone who reads this site on a regular basis knows that Jason Grey is my personal favorite expert. He is trained as a baseball scout and that ability gives his great columns and blog posts a unique and valuable edge.

Sixth Place: Eric Mack of CBSportsline.com - Eric Mack is an award winning sports writer. He has been playing fantasy sports since the 80's and is one of the newer members of ToutWars. He has been with CBS Sports for 11 years and the senior fantasy sports writer for the last six years.

The Honorable Mentions: Rudy and Grey of Razzball.com, Jason Collette of Fanball.com, Jeff Erickson of Rotowire, Alex Patton of Pattonandco.com, Todd ZolaMastersball.com of , and Lawr Michaels of Creative Sports.

Here are some of the many comments in praise of their favorites...

jintman1 said...

I think everyone has that 1st guy that they read or listened too that got them up to speed on how to play Fantasy at a higher level. For me it was Cory Schwartz,the way he communicates his opinions and analysis made sense to me. But I still read and respect all of the other guys out there as well.

SRM said...

Grey at Razzball as well. Probably the only column i'd consider reading even if i didn't play fantasy baseball. Good fantasy advice and the site has a collaborative and informed comments section which Grey takes his time to be a key part of.

aleast91 said...

As I said my first year of Tout, it's always an honor to get my ass kicked by people like Ron Shandler, Jason Grey and Lawr Michaels (among others, all of whom are very talented and good people). But this list is incomplete without Jason Collette, too.

Thanks,
Cory

Patrick DiCaprio said...

there is no one funnier on a daily basis than Lenny Melnick and that is what separates him from the rest-they all know their stuff!

REDRUM said...

I'll also add that Lenny Melnick is the most ACCESSIBLE and Interactive Expert...
Ive been able to talk to him on the phone, via email, and on his live shows... Some of these other guys dont make them self as available as Lenny does....

Lenny is a born comedian as well check this link at the 25 min mark..

http://www.blogtalkradio.com/Lenny-Melnick/2009/05/08/Fantasy-Baseball-With-Lenny-Melnick

Scott said...

Shandler gives you a unique approach to fantasy approach with his hordes of stat research. Schwartz is excellent and he does a fine job of keeping the info only relevant with mixed leagues, which suits his primary audience at Mlb.com. Lenny gives you the most up to date info of fantasy relevance, but he spends HOURS reading and tracking box scores, line-up changes, and making sure he reads 3 or 4 newspapers per team a day. If you want to miss a week of fantasy baseball for any reason, just keep track of Lenny's daily podcasts. Lenny's best attribute is his experience, but he has a tendency to fall in love with certain qualities in players, which is a bad attribute, but if you can weed this out your fine. Mathew Berry is funny and his buddy Nate Ravitz, including his hot sisters, are funny and their info is tried and tested. Berry's columns are very funny and also includes some pop culture references. Berry told me over and over again to stay away from J.D. Drew...good year or not he is bad news. Berry is also good with evaluating injury time, but I doubt he realizes his own accuracy. He sure loves the spotlight, but would you blame him. He turned his fantasy baseball fanaticism to a big fortune. I read zola and listened to him online...one of the best. Erickson has the best roto site bar none with Rotowire. BaseballHQ is the next best. That would be a great poll....What website do you visit for comprehensive news and advice. Eric Mack doesn't do much, but spews out information that we all already know. His website or maybe it is him, do a good job with prospect hunting, but anybody can do it and his articles unveal my hidden gems, which means he is probably doing his job and I hat him in spite of it. I don't subscribe to the other sites, but I know Lawr Michaels from interviews and he is kind of a clone of Lenny, so I'm sure he can give you some well-rounded advice.

Scott said...

Redrum, you are very right about Lenny being funny. He sometimes loses focus in the middle of his podcasts and you never know what he's going to sing or joke about. Some of the best humor is when he talks to the audience, but he is really talking to himself and that my friends can make for some funny radio. Cory is Yoda-like. He has the most applicable info in his head and to me is one of the best because he has the best of all talents. He has experience mixed in with a great stats background. He is the brains of MLB.com. Siano has definitely picked his brain enough to become a much better fantasy press participant. Siano would choose a fantasy team of Yankees rather draft a winning fantasy franchise. Just ask him.

josefbreuer said...

among things i like about melnick, is that he doesn't try to be objective. like the one reader here remarked, you need to listen to melnick critically. still, his ability to make consistently reasonable and sound assessments is his strength. he's also down-to-earth and accessible. i'm still pretty green in FBB and have only this year been introduced to razzball.com. -- terrific collection of great minds complemented by ascerbic wit. i think jason grey's analyses are outstanding: thorough and comprehensive. i'm glad to have gotten an explanation about what limited the choices on this ballot, and would like to add kudos to mike podhorzer at fantasypros911. his leaders and laggards column is brilliant and his preseason rankings, on which i relied a lot this season, have proven very reliable.

Jason Collette said...

That's an extremely tough vote. They're all smart as hell but each has their own unique characteristic. Razzball guys are funny as hell, Melnick talks to anyone, and Schwartz is very personable, etc.

Anonymous said...

Grey & Rudy is cool, so is you Jon!

Brett Myers Out, The Phillies Seek a Replacement

One of the Phillies front line starters is now out for the season with hip surgery. At least it isn't is arm. I'm sure that is not going to make Myers owners feel any better. Coincidentally, I tried to trade for Myers in my primary AL-only league just last week and received a sound rejection. Funny, I'm sure he'd take the deal now. The Phillies are apparently ready to deal for a new secondary ace to pair with Cole Hamels.

From MLBTradeRumors.com:

Brett Myers is out for the season with hip surgery. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports spoke to Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr., who said the Phillies don't have the money to add multiple starters. Instead they'll aim high, with names like Erik Bedard and Roy Oswalt speculated by Rosenthal. So, not a Brad Penny type. SI's Jon Heyman wrote about Bedard's appeal earlier today.

Rosenthal also wonders if Myers' surgery could restore some lost velocity, making him an intriguing free agent after the season.

Fantasy Owners in all leagues should be monitoring this situation closely. The Phillies are not as loaded as some teams in their minor league system but they do have a solid group of prospects that would a lot of value in trade. Since the prospects are likely to end up in the American League owners in re-building mode will want to be aware of names like these:

OF Dominic Brown - The Phillies number one prospect according to Baseball America. Brown hs been compared to Darryl Strawberry often. He is still quite raw at this point but his potential is off the charts.

RHP Carlos Carrasco - He was the number one prospect in 2008. His toughness has been questioned but his stuff is very good and his command is improving. BA likes to call him a mid-rotation starter but I think he'll be a little better than that.

SS Jason Donald - If he stays with the Phillies, Donald is likely to take over at third base in 2010. A lot of doubt his ability to produce as a regular in a major league lineup but those people are dumb.

Any other prospects involved are likely to be a few years away from the majors. The pitchers the Phillies are interested are all known quantities like Roy Oswalt, Brad Penny, Erik Bedard, and others like them on teams that have no hope. I can also see a team like the Tampa Bay Rays or Texas Rangers being willing to trade a veteran pitcher in order to fit a more talented youngster into their rotation.

Question: Can Liriano and Lester Recover?

Dear Jon,

My name is Max Estes and I found your website through mlbtraderumors.com on Monday and I REALLY enjoy it! I have two conundrums in a extremely competitive head-to-head 7x7 (Runs, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, OBP, SLG, IP, W, L. Save, Strike Outs, ERA and WHIP) keeper (10 keepers plus 1 minor leaguer) league of which I am the commissioner. I could use your guidance. The categories I'm having some trouble in are AVG, SLG, Saves and sometimes SB. I received an offer from another manager where I would get Carlos Beltran, Francisco Liriano and Matt Lindstrom for Hunter Pence, Justin Verlander, and Jon Lester.

I was thinking about taking out Verlander for either Wandy Rodriguez or Eric Bedard. What is your opinion of those trades. Also I have an offer of I get Marco Scuturo for Gary Sheffield. I need an IF more than an OF but I could use the power. If you need any more information or more players on my team please let me know. Thank you in advance for helping me.

Max Estes

Hey Max,

Thanks for checking out the site and deciding to stick round. I appreciate it a lot. I need to thank Tim Dierkes, he's been sending a lot of readers my way lately. But to your trades...

Carlos Beltran, Francisco Liriano, and Matt Lindstrom

for

Hunter Pence, Justin Verlander, and Jon Lester

You did not include any prices or rounds so I'm going to assume that they do not matter in regards to who you choose to keep. If that assumption is wrong just let me know but for now I'm going to evaluate the trade as if you could keep anyone you choose without penalty.

Carlos Beltran is the best player in the deal by far, despite Hunter Pence having his strongest season yet. Unfortunately, being a Houston Astro sort of limits the Runs and RBI potential. A Rule of Thumb for Fantasy Baseball trading is that if you gain the best player in the deal you win the trade. They call it a Rule of Thumb because that isn't always a very accurate measure. Both players are hitting for very good averages, both are hitting for power (although not as much as we might hope as far as homeruns are concerned), and both are stealing a few bases. Beltran is just better in all of those categories. Beltran would be an upgrade over Pence but not a mind-blowing one.



Francisco Liriano is having a very tough season. His control is way off which is much more damaging than any perceived loss of stuff. He is having a degree of bad luck but a FIP of 4.88 indicates it is a bit more than just bad luck. He also seems to have abandoned his change-up. Which is resulting in more flyballs hit on his fastball, which resulted in a higher homerun rate. That's a major mistake for him and something that is easily fixed assuming he hasn't lost the feel for the pitch somehow. This could have a lot to do with Joe Mauer's absence for most of the first two months of the season. It's hard to judge based on one start but in his May 25th start his control seemed to be back and the result was zero walks, and seven strikeouts (and 11 hits) in just four innings. There were also small signs of recovery in the few starts before that one. It is based on a hunch, but I'd be willing to bet Liriano is about to enter a very strong stretch of pitching.

You would also receive the Florida Marlins closer, Matt Lindstrom. He may be a closer but Lindstrom is not going to help you in any category except saves. His control has been about as bad as it could be. I'm shocked he hasn't lost the role to one of the Marlins' many prospects. But you need saves and he does get them.

You would be giving up Justin Verlander who is pitching great and Jon Lester who has had disappointing results thus far. Believe it or not Verlander has been pretty unfortunate this season. His BABIP is bloated at .339 and his LOB percentage is just 64.9 compared to his career mark of 71.5 percent. In short, Verlander has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season. As bad as Verlander's luck has been, Jon Lester's has been much worse. Lester's .379 BABIP has been a huge hindrance to his owners. That and a 17.5 percent HR/FB rate has ruined his results. Balls that were harmless infield flies last year (12.9% in 2008, 4.8% in 2009) are now being launched out of the park. This is going to turn around soon. It has to, or Lester could be the causulty of the return of John Smoltz who is looking very good in his rehab starts. The Red Sox also have Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden pitching great in the minors.

You are going to lose quite a bit from your pitching staff if you make this deal but I understand that this is your strength. Exchanging Wandy Rodriguez or Eric Bedard (both are pitching pretty good) for Verlander would help make it a bit better for you and still provide your trading partner a significant upgrade over what he was getting before. If you can get him to make the switch from Verlander I would do the deal. It has some risk, but I think you'll get enough of an upgrade where you need it (SLG, Saves, and Stolen Bases) to make it worth while. This is especially true if you believe (as I do) that Francisco Liriano will turn it around. Liriano is the key. If you believe, you can do this trade. If you don't believe then you should keep trying to re-work it.

As for the Marcus Scutaro and Gary Sheffield deal, I would just hang on to Sheffield. Scutaro is having a nice season, but I think it will all be downhill from here for him. Sheffield is going to get to play a lot and when he's playing well there are few better.

Good luck Max!

Russell Branyan - Fantasy Baseball Stud

I am not one to say I told you so but I so did. In January I told you just how good Russell Branyan could be if he received the playing time that Seattle seemed to be promising him. I drafted him on quite a few teams this year and he has more than rewarded me for it.

In 2008, Branyan hit 12 homers in 132 at-bats. And he has essentially always performed that way. Last month, the Seattle Mariners signed him to a one-year guaranteed contract approaching a million bucks a year to be their primary first baseman. This was an excellent move. Branyan has a low contact rate but has a career fly ball rate over 50 percent and approaching 60 percent the last few seasons. This translates into homeruns because of his excellent career HR/FB of 21.9 percent. Do the math – (500 at-bats)*(70 percent contact rate)*(50 percent fly ball rate)*(22 percent HR/FB) = 38 homeruns. Branyan's best-case batting average is probably no better than .270 and reality suggests an average closer to .250, but if Ludwick can hit .290, anything can happen.

David Cameron over at FanGraphs.com just posted an article lauding Jack Zduriencik, the Seattle Mariners general manager for signing Branyan and giving him the opportunity that no one else would.

So far, he looks like a genius. Branyan entered the day hitting .306/.395/.590, and he just hit a Trevor Cahill fastball about 750 feet for his 11th home run of the season. Given a chance to hit against left-handed pitching for the first time, he’s responded by showing a fairly normal platoon split - .312/.407/.634 vs RHPs and .294/.373/.529 against LHPs.

Even Branyan's most fervent supporters don't believe he'll continue to hit over .300 but I and a growing number of others do believe that he can approach (if not surpass) the 40 homerun level.

Did you draft Russell Branyan? Do you believe he can continue his present rate of production? Please share in the comments section.