Russell Branyan - Fantasy Baseball Stud

I am not one to say I told you so but I so did. In January I told you just how good Russell Branyan could be if he received the playing time that Seattle seemed to be promising him. I drafted him on quite a few teams this year and he has more than rewarded me for it.

In 2008, Branyan hit 12 homers in 132 at-bats. And he has essentially always performed that way. Last month, the Seattle Mariners signed him to a one-year guaranteed contract approaching a million bucks a year to be their primary first baseman. This was an excellent move. Branyan has a low contact rate but has a career fly ball rate over 50 percent and approaching 60 percent the last few seasons. This translates into homeruns because of his excellent career HR/FB of 21.9 percent. Do the math – (500 at-bats)*(70 percent contact rate)*(50 percent fly ball rate)*(22 percent HR/FB) = 38 homeruns. Branyan's best-case batting average is probably no better than .270 and reality suggests an average closer to .250, but if Ludwick can hit .290, anything can happen.

David Cameron over at FanGraphs.com just posted an article lauding Jack Zduriencik, the Seattle Mariners general manager for signing Branyan and giving him the opportunity that no one else would.

So far, he looks like a genius. Branyan entered the day hitting .306/.395/.590, and he just hit a Trevor Cahill fastball about 750 feet for his 11th home run of the season. Given a chance to hit against left-handed pitching for the first time, he’s responded by showing a fairly normal platoon split - .312/.407/.634 vs RHPs and .294/.373/.529 against LHPs.

Even Branyan's most fervent supporters don't believe he'll continue to hit over .300 but I and a growing number of others do believe that he can approach (if not surpass) the 40 homerun level.

Did you draft Russell Branyan? Do you believe he can continue his present rate of production? Please share in the comments section.

The Great Thing About June Prospects...

The latest edition of the (Waiver) Wire has been posted at Crucial Sports. This week we take a look at the early call ups. June is always better in my opinion for prospects. For one, you can actually have them in your lineup long enough to make a difference. Two, the teams calling these guys up actually want and need them to contribute to the rotations and lineups they have just joined.

A sample:

Brignac was once a top prospect of the Devilish Rays but he never quite produced or defended the way they wanted. He has shown the ability to hit for power and the ability to steal bases. He should receive plenty of playing time with Akinori Iwamura and Jason Bartlett both on the disabled list. His problem as a hitter was always strikeouts but so far this season he is showing improved patience and discipline at the plate. This is an excellent player to take a chance on in AL-only leagues.

and another sample:

The Mets lineup has more than its fair share of problems right now. Carlos Delgado, Jose Reyes, and Ryan Church are all on the disabled list. Carlos Beltran is playing banged up, and rookie Daniel Murphy is experiencing some of the downs that young players do. I believe that all of the previous mentioned players will bounce back strongly, well except Church. It seems obvious to me that manager Jerry Manuel is not a big fan of Ryan Church. He benched him for rookie this spring (Murphy) and encouraged the Mets to pick up the remains of what was once Gary Sheffield. So how easy is it to believe that he will plug the Mets highly anticipated phenomenal prospect into the lineup and never take him out? Not hard at all.

Matt Wieters Arrives on Friday

The promotion of Matt Wieters to the major leagues should have an impact in every fantasy league on the planet. This is not just a good prospect. This is the best prospect in baseball and some have said he could be the best prospect ever. None of that means that he'll be the best player in baseball in this season or any other. But if he delivers on his promise (and I believe he will) he should quickly establish himself as one of the best catchers in baseball. I used to call him Joe Mauer with power but I guess now I have to call him Joe Mauer-like. He probably is not available in most leagues but if he is then you should pounce on him right now. His impact should be considered in the same class as Evan Longoria's and Ryan Braun as rookies. That is a lot to live up to for a young player but I truly believe it.

Wieters should hit for average and power while providing the Orioles with above average defense behind the plate. He does not strike out much and takes walks. He has a plan at the plate and should not take long to adjust to the majors. He should be owned in every league of every size and type. He's that good.

Season	Team	BB%	K%	BB/K	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	Spd	BABIP	wOBA
2008	Orioles (A+)	16.10%	20.50%	0.94	0.448	0.576	1.024	0.231	1.90	0.383	0.445
2008	Orioles (AA)	15.40%	13.90%	1.31	0.460	0.625	1.085	0.260	3.50	0.383	0.472
2009	Orioles (AAA)	12.20%	21.90%	0.63	0.367	0.482	0.849	0.197	4.00	0.333	0.373

Ten Fantasy Baseball Trade Secrets

Mid-May is when trading season begins in a lot of leagues. This is the point in the year when owners start to feel comfortable that they know what they have on their team. But what is the secret to making successful trades? What makes a trade successful anyway? Is it fleecing another owner without incurring a league veto? Most owners dream of pulling off the killer trade for themselves, but would admit that a successful trade is one that makes the owner of all the teams involved happy. Every league is unique. I have been in leagues that value the best minor leaguers as priceless and others that consider them almost worthless. The success of a trade is going to be different in the eyes of every individual owner. There are whole books you can buy about the art of trading but here are ten trading tips that may help you make more effective fantasy baseball deals.

1. Know as much about the other owner and his team as possible. You should be checking in with the other teams in your league at least once a week anyway but especially when you are being offered a trade or seeking a trade. You want to measure what the trade would do for your trading partner as well as what it would do for your roster. In which categories will they gain or lose ground? Are they trading from strength? Are they looking desperate?
2. Try using the telephone. These days everyone may have an e-mail address but that does not mean that they check it as frequently as you might. Find out how the owner you are dealing with likes to discuss things. Instant messenger and e-mail are great but they lack the personal feeling that a telephone conversation has. It is much easier to decline a trade sent by e-mail. But many people find it very hard to say no to someone who has presented their case in a well-reasoned yet concise phone presentation. Trust me, I used to be that telemarketer that convinced you to support the Special Olympics or the politician of the month for much too long. Remember to prepare your sales pitch ahead of time. You want to want to sound as confident s possible that this is a good deal for both teams. Finish with phrases that provoke a yes or no answer, such as "sounds good, doesn't it", "wouldn't you like to have (the player in question) on your team?" and you'll be that much closer to a deal.
   
3. Improve another team to help your own. You may look at your league's standings and discover that you have more points between you and a championship than you can gain on your own. Rather than resign yourself to finishing second or worse look at trades you might make to bring your rival back to the pack. If your rival can be caught in saves by another league member that won't catch you in the standings, consider trading a closer to that owner and costing your rival a point in saves.
4. Do a thorough check on the health and performance of the players involved in a deal. You do not want to be caught trading for David Ortiz not knowing that his production is way off the norm. Or trading for closer Kevin Gregg without realizing how poorly he has pitched. You might think you received a great deal on Rafael Furcal until you realize that his back problems have resurfaced and he's losing playing time to Juan Castro of all people. These are all extreme examples but you get the idea.
   
5. Get a second opinion. Sometimes we're so attached to certain players or so covetous of others that we can't judge a deal properly. Or maybe you're having a hard time pulling the trigger for whatever reason. This is where your friends come in handy. If all your friends/advisors are in the same league you can always call on me. IM:bigjonempire, e-mail:advancedfantasybaseball@gmail.com, send me a twitter message @bigjonwilliams, or even call me on Skype -- bigjonempire ( I can't promise to monitor this route much but you can occasionally catch me this way). If time is of the essence send me an e-mail with your phone number and I'll call you right back.
6. If you get an offer you don't like, don't freak out, just make a counter offer. I read about poor reactions to trade offers all the time. Reacting with anger or any excess emotion over a bad offer is really just a waste of time. It also creates bad will with an owner who may have just honestly misjudged the value of a player. If you present a counter offer you create a dialogue which could lead to a trade that is much better than the one you refused. But don't try to out bad offer him, suggest a fair trade that would actually help your team and his. You may end up making your league stronger by doing this.
7. You'll usually get more by making several small trades then you will in one big one. This is especially true when you're in rebuilding mode. You can squeeze an extra minor leaguer or a draft pick or some FAAB dollars out of each owner you deal with and come out way ahead of what one owner could ever (even if he wanted to) give you on his own.
   
8. The Superstars are expensive, often the everyday player without the hype comes much cheaper and can be just as effective. Joe Nathan and Mariano Rivera will cost you a fortune in most leagues but Ryan Franklin and Brad Ziegler come much cheaper. Far too often when owners decide they need an offense upgrade they look to make a trade for Miguel Cabrera or David Wright and they end up making just a small upgrade at best. But if they went after guys like Russell Branyan or Mike Lowell they would have to part with much less for a still significant upgrade.
9. Concern yourself with the end result more than the price. You may think giving up a certain keeper for a collection of players you would never keep is madness. However, if that collection of players would guarantee you a championship it would be a very small price to pay.
10. Trust your gut feelings. If your gut told you that Phil Hughes was gonna be great this season you should have held on to him for more than two starts (okay, I'm talking to myself here). Especially when you're selling him low. Seriously, if you have a bad feeling about a deal DO NOT MAKE IT! You will feel like crap when you discover you were right.
    

Is the LIMA Plan really a viable strategy?

Another Side of Kerouac: The Dharma Bum as Sports Nut

The Godfather of Fantasy Baseball

I'll be on the Lenny Melnick Show tonight at 9:30. You can listen on BlogTalk Radio. We'll be talking about the Experts Poll and other things related to Fantasy Baseball.

Moving Up: Jesus Guzman and Kevin Frandsen

The San Francisco Giants have a lineup that is the envy of little league clubs everywhere. So, that they are starting to make some changes should be not be surprising. Second baseman Kevin Frandsen has been recalled from triple-A Fresno and will be taking at-bats away from Emanuel Burriss. Burriss is slumping and this team already has too many holes to give him much leeway. The club is also giving Jesus Guzman (the former Venezuela Winter League MVP and Oakland Athletic) chance to take at-bats from first baseman Travis Ishikawa.

In six minor league seasons, primarily as a third baseman and second baseman for the Seattle Mariners, Oakland Athletics, and the Giants, Jesus Guzman has slash line of .300/.368/.471 with 72 homeruns, and 31 stolen bases in 2393 at-bats. The interesting stats are mostly in the last couple of seasons. In 2007 for the Mariner he smacked 25 homeruns with a slash of .301/.370/.539 in 518 at-bats at the High-A level. In 2008 for the Oakland Athletics he hit a combined 23 home in 415 at-bats at three different minor league levels. He signed as a minor league free-agent with the San Francisco Giants and for triple-A Fresno has hit .363/.391/.592 with 21 extra-base hits in 157 at-bats. I like him. Especially since Ishikawa has been so miserble this season. He does hit a lot of groundballs but hits tons of linedrives and is just 24-years old.

Jesus Guzman Statistics from The Baseball Cube

Minor League Split Statistics from Minor League Baseball Splits

Jesus Guzman Wins VWL MVP

Kevin Frandsen is not a special player when it comes to the things we fantasy owners like to see. But he is a good contact hitter with patience at the plate. These are qualities that the Giants can use in their lineup. Frandsen has mediocre power at best and I would be mildly surprised if he ever hit more than ten homeruns in a season. He is a decent second baseman and should be of value in NL-only leagues as a middle infielder or quality injury replacement.

Which Fantasy Baseball Expert is Your Favorite?

UPDATE: I want to thank the many people who voted in this poll. As of today (05/30/09) I'm declaring the winners.

Every expert has their own particular style and quirks. I read as many of them as I can on a regular basis as I'm sure you do. But which expert clicks with you the best. Which expert are you most likely to emulate or at least heavily value their opinion. I would love to hear why you chose as you did. Let's start a real discussion in the comments section.