Ten Fantasy Baseball Trade Secrets

Mid-May is when trading season begins in a lot of leagues. This is the point in the year when owners start to feel comfortable that they know what they have on their team. But what is the secret to making successful trades? What makes a trade successful anyway? Is it fleecing another owner without incurring a league veto? Most owners dream of pulling off the killer trade for themselves, but would admit that a successful trade is one that makes the owner of all the teams involved happy. Every league is unique. I have been in leagues that value the best minor leaguers as priceless and others that consider them almost worthless. The success of a trade is going to be different in the eyes of every individual owner. There are whole books you can buy about the art of trading but here are ten trading tips that may help you make more effective fantasy baseball deals.

1. Know as much about the other owner and his team as possible. You should be checking in with the other teams in your league at least once a week anyway but especially when you are being offered a trade or seeking a trade. You want to measure what the trade would do for your trading partner as well as what it would do for your roster. In which categories will they gain or lose ground? Are they trading from strength? Are they looking desperate?
2. Try using the telephone. These days everyone may have an e-mail address but that does not mean that they check it as frequently as you might. Find out how the owner you are dealing with likes to discuss things. Instant messenger and e-mail are great but they lack the personal feeling that a telephone conversation has. It is much easier to decline a trade sent by e-mail. But many people find it very hard to say no to someone who has presented their case in a well-reasoned yet concise phone presentation. Trust me, I used to be that telemarketer that convinced you to support the Special Olympics or the politician of the month for much too long. Remember to prepare your sales pitch ahead of time. You want to want to sound as confident s possible that this is a good deal for both teams. Finish with phrases that provoke a yes or no answer, such as "sounds good, doesn't it", "wouldn't you like to have (the player in question) on your team?" and you'll be that much closer to a deal.
   
3. Improve another team to help your own. You may look at your league's standings and discover that you have more points between you and a championship than you can gain on your own. Rather than resign yourself to finishing second or worse look at trades you might make to bring your rival back to the pack. If your rival can be caught in saves by another league member that won't catch you in the standings, consider trading a closer to that owner and costing your rival a point in saves.
4. Do a thorough check on the health and performance of the players involved in a deal. You do not want to be caught trading for David Ortiz not knowing that his production is way off the norm. Or trading for closer Kevin Gregg without realizing how poorly he has pitched. You might think you received a great deal on Rafael Furcal until you realize that his back problems have resurfaced and he's losing playing time to Juan Castro of all people. These are all extreme examples but you get the idea.
   
5. Get a second opinion. Sometimes we're so attached to certain players or so covetous of others that we can't judge a deal properly. Or maybe you're having a hard time pulling the trigger for whatever reason. This is where your friends come in handy. If all your friends/advisors are in the same league you can always call on me. IM:bigjonempire, e-mail:advancedfantasybaseball@gmail.com, send me a twitter message @bigjonwilliams, or even call me on Skype -- bigjonempire ( I can't promise to monitor this route much but you can occasionally catch me this way). If time is of the essence send me an e-mail with your phone number and I'll call you right back.
6. If you get an offer you don't like, don't freak out, just make a counter offer. I read about poor reactions to trade offers all the time. Reacting with anger or any excess emotion over a bad offer is really just a waste of time. It also creates bad will with an owner who may have just honestly misjudged the value of a player. If you present a counter offer you create a dialogue which could lead to a trade that is much better than the one you refused. But don't try to out bad offer him, suggest a fair trade that would actually help your team and his. You may end up making your league stronger by doing this.
7. You'll usually get more by making several small trades then you will in one big one. This is especially true when you're in rebuilding mode. You can squeeze an extra minor leaguer or a draft pick or some FAAB dollars out of each owner you deal with and come out way ahead of what one owner could ever (even if he wanted to) give you on his own.
   
8. The Superstars are expensive, often the everyday player without the hype comes much cheaper and can be just as effective. Joe Nathan and Mariano Rivera will cost you a fortune in most leagues but Ryan Franklin and Brad Ziegler come much cheaper. Far too often when owners decide they need an offense upgrade they look to make a trade for Miguel Cabrera or David Wright and they end up making just a small upgrade at best. But if they went after guys like Russell Branyan or Mike Lowell they would have to part with much less for a still significant upgrade.
9. Concern yourself with the end result more than the price. You may think giving up a certain keeper for a collection of players you would never keep is madness. However, if that collection of players would guarantee you a championship it would be a very small price to pay.
10. Trust your gut feelings. If your gut told you that Phil Hughes was gonna be great this season you should have held on to him for more than two starts (okay, I'm talking to myself here). Especially when you're selling him low. Seriously, if you have a bad feeling about a deal DO NOT MAKE IT! You will feel like crap when you discover you were right.
    

Is the LIMA Plan really a viable strategy?

Another Side of Kerouac: The Dharma Bum as Sports Nut

The Godfather of Fantasy Baseball

I'll be on the Lenny Melnick Show tonight at 9:30. You can listen on BlogTalk Radio. We'll be talking about the Experts Poll and other things related to Fantasy Baseball.

Moving Up: Jesus Guzman and Kevin Frandsen

The San Francisco Giants have a lineup that is the envy of little league clubs everywhere. So, that they are starting to make some changes should be not be surprising. Second baseman Kevin Frandsen has been recalled from triple-A Fresno and will be taking at-bats away from Emanuel Burriss. Burriss is slumping and this team already has too many holes to give him much leeway. The club is also giving Jesus Guzman (the former Venezuela Winter League MVP and Oakland Athletic) chance to take at-bats from first baseman Travis Ishikawa.

In six minor league seasons, primarily as a third baseman and second baseman for the Seattle Mariners, Oakland Athletics, and the Giants, Jesus Guzman has slash line of .300/.368/.471 with 72 homeruns, and 31 stolen bases in 2393 at-bats. The interesting stats are mostly in the last couple of seasons. In 2007 for the Mariner he smacked 25 homeruns with a slash of .301/.370/.539 in 518 at-bats at the High-A level. In 2008 for the Oakland Athletics he hit a combined 23 home in 415 at-bats at three different minor league levels. He signed as a minor league free-agent with the San Francisco Giants and for triple-A Fresno has hit .363/.391/.592 with 21 extra-base hits in 157 at-bats. I like him. Especially since Ishikawa has been so miserble this season. He does hit a lot of groundballs but hits tons of linedrives and is just 24-years old.

Jesus Guzman Statistics from The Baseball Cube

Minor League Split Statistics from Minor League Baseball Splits

Jesus Guzman Wins VWL MVP

Kevin Frandsen is not a special player when it comes to the things we fantasy owners like to see. But he is a good contact hitter with patience at the plate. These are qualities that the Giants can use in their lineup. Frandsen has mediocre power at best and I would be mildly surprised if he ever hit more than ten homeruns in a season. He is a decent second baseman and should be of value in NL-only leagues as a middle infielder or quality injury replacement.

Which Fantasy Baseball Expert is Your Favorite?

UPDATE: I want to thank the many people who voted in this poll. As of today (05/30/09) I'm declaring the winners.

Every expert has their own particular style and quirks. I read as many of them as I can on a regular basis as I'm sure you do. But which expert clicks with you the best. Which expert are you most likely to emulate or at least heavily value their opinion. I would love to hear why you chose as you did. Let's start a real discussion in the comments section.

Rays Revamp Pitching Staff w/ David Price

Mark Lancaster of the Tampa Tribune informs of the changes from his Rays Report Blog:

• Scott Kazmir, a two-time All-Star who has been mauled in his last five starts, is headed to the DL with a strained right quad he says resulted from poor mechanics. No word on how long he’ll be sidelined, but considering they have to get the soreness out AND rebuild his mechanics, we’re definitely looking at longer than two weeks.
• David Price, arguably the top prospect in the game, is expected to replace Kazmir in the rotation beginning Monday in Cleveland.
• Troy Percival, age 39 and eighth on the all-time list with 358 career saves, is on the DL with right shoulder tendinitis and may be done for good. He flew home to California today and apparently was distraught after yesterday’s game.

Unless you can bench him, I would be hesitant to activate David Price right now. His walk rate has been elevated at triple-A and so has his HR/9. I love him long term but unless you have no choice (you'll lose him, you're desperate for any chance at good pitching) I would bench or avoid him for now.

The Tampa Bullpen has basically been in a committee mode for the last two years. I think Jason Isringhausen lead the committee as the most experienced closer option. Experience is something Joe Maddon seems to value in the bullpen. Isringhausen should be a fine temporary option if you need saves but I would not invest too heavily.

The Relevance of the LIMA Plan

There has been a lot of discussion in the subscriber forums of BaseballHQ.com about the value (or lack of value) in the LIMA Plan. The discussion was jump started thanks to an article that appeared on the Hardball Times site, written by John Burnson. Burnson does limit his analysis to starting pitchers which are only a part of the LIMA Plan. Relief pitchers (even non-closers) play a huge role on many fantasy teams, so to leave them out of the evaluation is to miss a large portion of the LIMA eligible pitchers.

Ron Shandler wrote an editorial response that I believe is unaccessible for non-members. In it he shows a number of points that Burnson missed, and explains some of the history and the true use of the plan which is often missed by adopters. The LIMA Plan was never expected to provide someone with a first rate pitching staff. Rather, it was intended to allow users to spend most of their available budget on hitting and still build a competent and competitive staff. Ron Shandler began by listing a few key facts that everyone should know about the LIMA Plan.

• It has been around for a long, long time (11 years in fantasy time is forever)
• The more popular it has become, the less effective it has become.
• With each year that passes, memory fades and more people get it wrong
• I have not used the LIMA Plan, as written, for at least four years.

Ed DeCaria wrote another response testing the viability of using the LIMA filters (>=6.0 K/9, >=2.0 K/BB, and <=1.1 HR/9) to find pitchers that will show an improved ERA. Though Ed's work was a little hard to follow, he does show that the plan does work if you can get the eligible pitchers at a discount rate. This seems much more likely to happen in mixed leagues than in NL or AL leagues. But my favorite part of the article is when Ed describes why LIMA is not a failed strategy despite its flaws.

LIMA (“Low Investment Mound Aces”) was first introduced over 10 years ago. BEFORE Voros McCracken’s research revealed the sharp regression to the mean of hits on balls in play for pitchers. BEFORE the daily tracking of groundballs and flyballs and their subsequent segmentation into line drives and pop-ups and now “fliners.” BEFORE the realization that home runs allowed were largely a function of a pitcher’s fly ball rate, park factors, and luck rather than any direct home run avoidance skill. BEFORE pitch outcome data enabled us to analyze ball vs. strike ratios, called and swinging strike rates, and first pitch strikes. And BEFORE technology systems were installed in every major league stadium to allow us to analyze pitch types, release points, velocity, movement, and location.

There are definitely more accurate tools than the LIMA filters to use in evaluating pitchers and projecting their performance. I use them all the time. But the filters are not obsolete and are still useful in a lot of leagues. I don't recommend following any plan too strictly. A vital need at the draft table is the ability to zig when they zag. This flexibility will prevent you from failing to acquire the needed stats during your draft when you discover that everyone in your league is also using the LIMA Plan.

TRADE: Jake Peavy to White Sox

Will Carroll has reported on Baseball Prospectus.com and similar reports are flooding sports radio outlets that the San Diego Padres have traded All Star starting pitcher, Jake Peavy to the Chicago White Sox for a collection of players. The deal is apparently agreed to by both clubs but is awaiting the approval of Peavy who has a No-Trade clause in his contract.

The Padres and White Sox agreed to a trade centered on Jake Peavy moving from the Padres to the White Sox. Peavy has repeatedly stated that he wants to stay in the National League and a source close to Peavy re-iterated that in a call this morning. Peavy has a three year extension in place beginning in 2010, so there’s not much that the White Sox can do to give him more incentive. One of the main concerns, I was told, is that Peavy is unsure about playing for Ozzie Guillen. Peavy has until tomorrow to approve the deal. No “window” has been open or requested by either team.

The White Sox made an aggressive first offer of four players, including Aaron Poreda, Clayton Richard, and two other prospects. Gordon Beckham is thought to have been discussed, though it is unlikely the Sox would be willing to deal him, even for Peavy. He would have to be traded as a PTBNL, due to the Incaviglia rule. There’s been speculation that the Sox would deal Chris Getz, but again, the names included in the agreed deal have not been confirmed by any outlet at this time.

This is not a good trade for Peavy's fantasy owners (especially the ones in leagues that do not allow owners to keep players traded to the other league). Peavy has spent his MLB career in the best pitching environment in MLB - Petco Park. If he approves the deal he will be pitching in a homerun park that is likely to significantly errode Peavy's fantasy value. His HR/FB will take a huge jump based on just the change in home park alone. Peavy will also have to face the much stronger American League lineups that include designated hitters rather than his fellow pitchers.

Clayton Richard who has shown borderline LIMA skills and would look much better in the National League starting for the Padres. Aaron Poreda is a top pitching prospect but still has significant developing to do before he becomes a starting option. Gordon Beckham is an awesome hitter. If he were included this would have to be considered a very good deal for the Padres. Beckham would be listed as a PTBNL because players have to be with the teams that drafted them for at least a year before they can be dealt.

Season	Team	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	FIP
2002	Padres	8.29	3.04	2.73	1.01	1.42	0.339	0.70	3.69
2003	Padres	7.21	3.79	1.90	1.53	1.31	0.263	0.78	4.99
2004	Padres	9.36	2.87	3.26	0.70	1.20	0.310	0.84	3.14
2005	Padres	9.58	2.22	4.32	0.80	1.04	0.288	0.77	2.89
2005	Padres	6.23	6.23	1.00	4.15	2.54	0.394	0.37	9.71
2006	Padres	9.56	2.76	3.47	1.02	1.23	0.316	0.73	3.51
2006	Padres	3.38	1.69	2.00	1.69	2.25	0.434	0.66	5.40
2007	Padres	9.67	2.74	3.53	0.52	1.06	0.286	0.78	2.84
2008	Padres	8.60	3.06	2.81	0.88	1.18	0.285	0.82	3.60
2009	Padres	10.13	2.79	3.63	1.03	1.11	0.288	0.71	3.35