The Relevance of the LIMA Plan

There has been a lot of discussion in the subscriber forums of BaseballHQ.com about the value (or lack of value) in the LIMA Plan. The discussion was jump started thanks to an article that appeared on the Hardball Times site, written by John Burnson. Burnson does limit his analysis to starting pitchers which are only a part of the LIMA Plan. Relief pitchers (even non-closers) play a huge role on many fantasy teams, so to leave them out of the evaluation is to miss a large portion of the LIMA eligible pitchers.

Ron Shandler wrote an editorial response that I believe is unaccessible for non-members. In it he shows a number of points that Burnson missed, and explains some of the history and the true use of the plan which is often missed by adopters. The LIMA Plan was never expected to provide someone with a first rate pitching staff. Rather, it was intended to allow users to spend most of their available budget on hitting and still build a competent and competitive staff. Ron Shandler began by listing a few key facts that everyone should know about the LIMA Plan.

• It has been around for a long, long time (11 years in fantasy time is forever)
• The more popular it has become, the less effective it has become.
• With each year that passes, memory fades and more people get it wrong
• I have not used the LIMA Plan, as written, for at least four years.

Ed DeCaria wrote another response testing the viability of using the LIMA filters (>=6.0 K/9, >=2.0 K/BB, and <=1.1 HR/9) to find pitchers that will show an improved ERA. Though Ed's work was a little hard to follow, he does show that the plan does work if you can get the eligible pitchers at a discount rate. This seems much more likely to happen in mixed leagues than in NL or AL leagues. But my favorite part of the article is when Ed describes why LIMA is not a failed strategy despite its flaws.

LIMA (“Low Investment Mound Aces”) was first introduced over 10 years ago. BEFORE Voros McCracken’s research revealed the sharp regression to the mean of hits on balls in play for pitchers. BEFORE the daily tracking of groundballs and flyballs and their subsequent segmentation into line drives and pop-ups and now “fliners.” BEFORE the realization that home runs allowed were largely a function of a pitcher’s fly ball rate, park factors, and luck rather than any direct home run avoidance skill. BEFORE pitch outcome data enabled us to analyze ball vs. strike ratios, called and swinging strike rates, and first pitch strikes. And BEFORE technology systems were installed in every major league stadium to allow us to analyze pitch types, release points, velocity, movement, and location.

There are definitely more accurate tools than the LIMA filters to use in evaluating pitchers and projecting their performance. I use them all the time. But the filters are not obsolete and are still useful in a lot of leagues. I don't recommend following any plan too strictly. A vital need at the draft table is the ability to zig when they zag. This flexibility will prevent you from failing to acquire the needed stats during your draft when you discover that everyone in your league is also using the LIMA Plan.

TRADE: Jake Peavy to White Sox

Will Carroll has reported on Baseball Prospectus.com and similar reports are flooding sports radio outlets that the San Diego Padres have traded All Star starting pitcher, Jake Peavy to the Chicago White Sox for a collection of players. The deal is apparently agreed to by both clubs but is awaiting the approval of Peavy who has a No-Trade clause in his contract.

The Padres and White Sox agreed to a trade centered on Jake Peavy moving from the Padres to the White Sox. Peavy has repeatedly stated that he wants to stay in the National League and a source close to Peavy re-iterated that in a call this morning. Peavy has a three year extension in place beginning in 2010, so there’s not much that the White Sox can do to give him more incentive. One of the main concerns, I was told, is that Peavy is unsure about playing for Ozzie Guillen. Peavy has until tomorrow to approve the deal. No “window” has been open or requested by either team.

The White Sox made an aggressive first offer of four players, including Aaron Poreda, Clayton Richard, and two other prospects. Gordon Beckham is thought to have been discussed, though it is unlikely the Sox would be willing to deal him, even for Peavy. He would have to be traded as a PTBNL, due to the Incaviglia rule. There’s been speculation that the Sox would deal Chris Getz, but again, the names included in the agreed deal have not been confirmed by any outlet at this time.

This is not a good trade for Peavy's fantasy owners (especially the ones in leagues that do not allow owners to keep players traded to the other league). Peavy has spent his MLB career in the best pitching environment in MLB - Petco Park. If he approves the deal he will be pitching in a homerun park that is likely to significantly errode Peavy's fantasy value. His HR/FB will take a huge jump based on just the change in home park alone. Peavy will also have to face the much stronger American League lineups that include designated hitters rather than his fellow pitchers.

Clayton Richard who has shown borderline LIMA skills and would look much better in the National League starting for the Padres. Aaron Poreda is a top pitching prospect but still has significant developing to do before he becomes a starting option. Gordon Beckham is an awesome hitter. If he were included this would have to be considered a very good deal for the Padres. Beckham would be listed as a PTBNL because players have to be with the teams that drafted them for at least a year before they can be dealt.

Season	Team	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	FIP
2002	Padres	8.29	3.04	2.73	1.01	1.42	0.339	0.70	3.69
2003	Padres	7.21	3.79	1.90	1.53	1.31	0.263	0.78	4.99
2004	Padres	9.36	2.87	3.26	0.70	1.20	0.310	0.84	3.14
2005	Padres	9.58	2.22	4.32	0.80	1.04	0.288	0.77	2.89
2005	Padres	6.23	6.23	1.00	4.15	2.54	0.394	0.37	9.71
2006	Padres	9.56	2.76	3.47	1.02	1.23	0.316	0.73	3.51
2006	Padres	3.38	1.69	2.00	1.69	2.25	0.434	0.66	5.40
2007	Padres	9.67	2.74	3.53	0.52	1.06	0.286	0.78	2.84
2008	Padres	8.60	3.06	2.81	0.88	1.18	0.285	0.82	3.60
2009	Padres	10.13	2.79	3.63	1.03	1.11	0.288	0.71	3.35

The Fantasy Baseball Roundtable Continues

Sorry about the lack of posts the last few days. I'll try to make up for it this afternoon. You can read the lastest Fantasy Baseball Roundtable at Razzball.com this week. This week's topic of discussion concerns the statistical categories that we use to draft and evaluate players during the season. You should check out all the interesting answers.

What category(ies) do you think about least when drafting and managing your fantasy roster?

To Trade David Wright or Not is the Question

I recently received the following e-mail from a loyal reader:

Jon,

I'm in a 14 team, highly competitive keeper league in the midst of our 5th year. I have owned and been extremely happy with David Wright since the leagues inception. I have finished 3rd and 4th the past two years and I'm extremely motivated to win this season. I have been offered a very enticing trade and would appreciate your unbiased fantasy mind opinion of this proposed deal.

I would be trading:
David Wright, David Price, Ubaldo Jimenez, Zach Duke and Asdrubal Carbera

to obtain...

Miguel Cabrera, Brian Roberts, Heath Bell, Erik Bedard and Matt Cain

I'm very tied and invested in David Wright and find it difficult to part with him, however, I feel this deal could drastically improve my team in needed areas of HR, RBI, SV, and K please dispense upon me your knowledge and opinion of this deal.

Thanks,

Mark

I love this trade for you Mark. I do not believe you will lose anything in any category if you make this deal. Miguel Cabrera compares very well to David Wright. Wright steals a few more bases and is on a better team, but the rest of the deal makes it more than worth it.

Brian Roberts is a better fantasy option than Asdrubal Cabrera and should steal just as many bases with the added bonus of power. I like Asdrubal long term but I think he still has some developing to do despite his hot start. Roberts is a better hitter at this stage in their careers and I like the Baltimore lineup better if everyone stays healthy. Asdrubal's batting average is going to drop in the second half (as pitchers make adjustments) and Roberts will stay pretty consistent.

Heath Bell is a closer right now and one of the better ones, if not the best. The Padres offense is bad enough that Bell will be positioned for a save in just about any game the Padres lead in the ninth. Even a team as bad as the Padres will provide 40-plus save opportunities. David Price is an awsome prospect but he isn't in the majors right now. He also isn't pitching particularly well in triple-A, which is just fine with the Tampa Bay Rays who do not have a natural opening for him right now.

I like Ubaldo Jimenez as a future pitching star. Jimenez has been pitching better lately but his control is not yet at the point where he is trustworthy with a potential championship on the line. Despite his recent hamstring injury, I still prefer Erik Bedard. He is pitching very well (discounting his last start) and should help you in every pitching category but saves. If he does a short stint on the disabled list, do not fret just grab the best available middle reliever until he returns.

Zach Duke is pitching very well. The only weakness in Duke is a mediocre strikeout rate. I do think he will continue to pitch very well. Matt Cain is also pitching fairly well, if not as good as Zach Duke. He will always have a better strikeout rate. Cain's control is a little off right now but not so much that he'll harm your team (it's better than Jimenez's) and he should come around.

Mark, I think you win this trade in a huge way. It should be more than worth tearing yourself away from David Wright. Good luck, and let me know how it turns out.

Which Rookie (or close enough) Can Make or Break Your Fantasy Team?

Although everyone preaches not to rely on rookies to propel your fantasy team, there is no denying that rookies can have a huge impact. In the last few seasons we've seen Ryan Braun, Evan Longoria, and Tim Lincecum come from the minor leagues and show first round talent. Which rookie are you counting on this season?

Welcome to the Show

Toby Mergler of MLB.com interviewed me for their Welcome to the Show blog. The interview is part of a series featuring the members of the Fantasy Baseball Search Expert League. Please check out my interview and the rest of the series.

In addition to Toby Mergler of MLB.com, the Expert League also features the following:

• Todd Farino
  Owner and operator of Fantasy Baseball Search
• Fred Lynn
  Legendary former MVP and ROY
• Matthew Leach
  Lead writer for the St. Louis Cardinals on MLB.com
• Matt Lutovsky
  Fantasy Writer for The Sporting News
• Jon Williams
  Writer for Advanced Fantasy Baseball
• Geoff Stein
  Operations Manager of Mock Draft Central
• Evan Dickens
  Writer for Fantasy Baseball Search
• Ryan Hallam
  Owner and operator of Fighting Chance Fantasy
• Junkyard Jake
  RC Rizza, Writer for Junkyard Jake
• Mike Kuchera
  The Fantasy Man, Fantasy Baseball Extraordinaire
• Sean Sultaire
  Writer for Fantasy Baseball Geeks

What's wrong with David Ortiz?

David Ortiz is large, slow and in his mid-thirties. He has hit for power just about everywhere he has ever played. Last season he had a wrist injury which definitely impacted his stats. But every media source seems to agree with Ortiz and batting coach, Dave Magadan when they say the wrist is no longer a problem. Ortiz missed a few days with a stiff back. At his age a stiff back and sore joints becomes a normal condition. This has been reported as a brief and minor problem. However, Ortiz is not hitting for average or for power. Two weeks ago, Magadan thought he had hit on the answer to Big Papi's problems.

From Boston.com on April 20th:

Hitting coach Dave Magadan diagnosed Ortiz's issue late last week. Ortiz has been cocking his hands into a hitting position too late, the same problem that has crept up on Ortiz when struggles surfaced in the past, Magadan said.

Late last week, Magadan showed Ortiz two pictures, one from last year during a hot streak and one from this year. In the first, Ortiz had his hands back, ready to swing, while the ball was halfway to the plate. In the second picture, Ortiz was in an identical position, but the pitch had nearly reached the plate.

Yesterday, Koji Uehara struck out Ortiz swinging twice, both at fastballs that did not reach 90 miles per hour. "When you're a little bit late . . . getting to the spot where you need to put a swing on the ball, 87 is like 97," Magadan said.

Magadan emphasized that readiness is Ortiz's main issue. Ortiz has not been hitting the ball to the opposite field and producing familiar Wall Ball doubles, but Magadan said opponents have been pitching him hard and inside. Magadan also said he has witnessed no effects from the wrist injury that plagued Ortiz late last season and in the playoffs.

While Magadan had identified the problem, he was not concerned with it. He and Ortiz worked on fixing it Saturday and Magadan is happy with the results.

"When you can change your season around in two games, it's not a start," Magadan said. "It takes some time. He felt good about the changes he made yesterday. For me, I think it's just a matter of time."

I and David Ortiz owners across the globe hope and pray that this is indeed the problem and that it is just a matter of timing. But I'm not so certain. Ortiz is in a class of player that has historically declined very quickly when reaching their mid-thirties, often it seems to happen overnight. Former Red Sox Mo Vaughn is a good example of this type.

Ortiz has a career walk rate of 13.5 percent, it is currently at 14 percent. His career K-rate is 21 percent, this season his rate is a just a touch higher at 22 percent. His BABIP is a little low at .281 compared to his .308 career rate, but that is hardly a sign of disastrous luck. Ron Shandler's XBA (expected batting average), which combines statistical indicators to predict what a player's batting average should be, suggests that Ortiz should be batting for about a .223 average. That's right on the money so far.

Ortiz's slugging percentage is hovering around .315, which is nearly .300 points below his last few years of production. He is hitting more flyballs than ever but a large percentage of them have been infield flies which helps supports Magadan's theory. The fact that he is not hitting homers at all is much more disturbing than the batting average. This is the part I believe is a fluke that will be corrected in the second half of the season.

So, what's wrong with Ortiz? He's getting older. His bat is slowing down a bit. His batting mechanics are a little off and he has struggled to correct them. I doubt the batting average will improve much above the .260 range, but I believe we'll see 20-plus homers before the season ends. That said, I wouldn't look acquire him unless the price were extremely low. I believe he'll bounce back but he's also an old enough version of the type that falls completely off the map to be willing to risk much. Then, maybe he just misses Manny...