Toby Mergler of MLB.com interviewed me for their Welcome to the Show blog. The interview is part of a series featuring the members of the Fantasy Baseball Search Expert League. Please check out my interview and the rest of the series.
In addition to Toby Mergler of MLB.com, the Expert League also features the following:
Todd Farino Owner and operator of Fantasy Baseball Search
David Ortiz is large, slow and in his mid-thirties. He has hit for power just about everywhere he has ever played. Last season he had a wrist injury which definitely impacted his stats. But every media source seems to agree with Ortiz and batting coach, Dave Magadan when they say the wrist is no longer a problem. Ortiz missed a few days with a stiff back. At his age a stiff back and sore joints becomes a normal condition. This has been reported as a brief and minor problem. However, Ortiz is not hitting for average or for power. Two weeks ago, Magadan thought he had hit on the answer to Big Papi's problems.
Hitting coach Dave Magadan diagnosed Ortiz's issue late last week. Ortiz has been cocking his hands into a hitting position too late, the same problem that has crept up on Ortiz when struggles surfaced in the past, Magadan said.
Late last week, Magadan showed Ortiz two pictures, one from last year during a hot streak and one from this year. In the first, Ortiz had his hands back, ready to swing, while the ball was halfway to the plate. In the second picture, Ortiz was in an identical position, but the pitch had nearly reached the plate.
Yesterday, Koji Uehara struck out Ortiz swinging twice, both at fastballs that did not reach 90 miles per hour. "When you're a little bit late . . . getting to the spot where you need to put a swing on the ball, 87 is like 97," Magadan said.
Magadan emphasized that readiness is Ortiz's main issue. Ortiz has not been hitting the ball to the opposite field and producing familiar Wall Ball doubles, but Magadan said opponents have been pitching him hard and inside. Magadan also said he has witnessed no effects from the wrist injury that plagued Ortiz late last season and in the playoffs.
While Magadan had identified the problem, he was not concerned with it. He and Ortiz worked on fixing it Saturday and Magadan is happy with the results.
"When you can change your season around in two games, it's not a start," Magadan said. "It takes some time. He felt good about the changes he made yesterday. For me, I think it's just a matter of time."
I and David Ortiz owners across the globe hope and pray that this is indeed the problem and that it is just a matter of timing. But I'm not so certain. Ortiz is in a class of player that has historically declined very quickly when reaching their mid-thirties, often it seems to happen overnight. Former Red Sox Mo Vaughn is a good example of this type.
Ortiz has a career walk rate of 13.5 percent, it is currently at 14 percent. His career K-rate is 21 percent, this season his rate is a just a touch higher at 22 percent. His BABIP is a little low at .281 compared to his .308 career rate, but that is hardly a sign of disastrous luck. Ron Shandler's XBA (expected batting average), which combines statistical indicators to predict what a player's batting average should be, suggests that Ortiz should be batting for about a .223 average. That's right on the money so far.
Ortiz's slugging percentage is hovering around .315, which is nearly .300 points below his last few years of production. He is hitting more flyballs than ever but a large percentage of them have been infield flies which helps supports Magadan's theory. The fact that he is not hitting homers at all is much more disturbing than the batting average. This is the part I believe is a fluke that will be corrected in the second half of the season.
So, what's wrong with Ortiz? He's getting older. His bat is slowing down a bit. His batting mechanics are a little off and he has struggled to correct them. I doubt the batting average will improve much above the .260 range, but I believe we'll see 20-plus homers before the season ends. That said, I wouldn't look acquire him unless the price were extremely low. I believe he'll bounce back but he's also an old enough version of the type that falls completely off the map to be willing to risk much. Then, maybe he just misses Manny...
Most reports out of Baltimore are suggesting that outfielder Luke Scott is about to be placed on the disabled list. Scott was scheduled to have an MRI today on his injured left shoulder. Most of the Maryland media is in agreement that the result will see Scott on the disabled list very soon. The fondest wish of Orioles fans and Fantasy Baseball owners is that Nolan Reimold will be called up to replace him.
Reimold is an interesting prospect. He has suffered through a variety of injury problems that slowed his movement up the ladder and caused some to doubt his ability to become an impact minor leaguer. The 2009 Baseball America Prospect Handbook describes Reimold as someone who "... crushes mistakes and should be an average overall hitter..." He is better than that. His power is very good and he has improved a lot as a contact hitter over the last two seasons. I expect him to eventually hit for a decent average (in the .275-.285 range) and for 30-plus homers in a full season of at-bats.
Judging by his amazing start at triple-A, he could very well hit that projection by mid-July. On the strength of this start, fantasy owners everywhere are just waiting to pounce. I recommend that you be among them. As I'll say about every call-up, I expect Reimold to have his ups and downs this season but overall he should be worth owning in AL-leagues and deeper mixed leagues.
UPDATE: Kansas City Royals general manager Dayton Moore announced on Tuesday that Joakim Soria has NO structural damage in his shoulder. This is great news. A couple of weeks rest and some ibuprofen should do wonders. ALSO: I'm in the same boat as everyone else who picked up Luke Hochevar and suffered a terrible blow to their ratios. Hopefully start two goes much better.
When the Royals placed Joakim Soria on the disabled list and moved Sidney Ponson (their only struggling starter) to the bullpen it created an opportunity for two players. Juan Cruz will be the interim closer for the Royals. Oh, they say it will be a committee but Cruz should see the majority of save chances. And Luke Hochevar, who was making the PCL look like Little League, joins the major league rotation.
Joakim Soria to the Disabled List
It has been obvious that there was something up with Soria, almost since the start of the season. He has pitched just about the bare minimum for a closer. The shoulder soreness has not seemed to affect his pitching when he has taken the mound which is hopefully an indication that the injury is not that debilitating. The Royals seem to think that a couple of weeks rest should do the trick but they are not saying much about it. We can only hope that they have taken all the appropriate steps to protect one of their best pitching assets. Soria should be held in every type of league. The temptation to make a panic move this time of year is huge but I encourage all owners to relax and find the best replacement possible.
Juan Cruz should lead the Royals new Closer Committee
If you are a Soria owner hopefully you might be lucky enough to pick up Juan Cruz. Cruz is an excellent pitcher who has been considered a great potential closer for years but has seen few opportunities. Cruz has not been at his best this season. His walk rate (always a little bit high) has elevated to 5.65 thus far this season. His strikeout rate is also a bit lower than usual at 6.91 compared to his 9.28 career average. Cruz is also a flyball pitcher who is inducing even fewer groundballs than usual. Fortunately, none of his weaknesses are showing in the results so far which means even though he is off to a shaky start his luck has improved. His FIP of 4.43 (1.88 earned run average) shows you the level he has pitched this season. Although you might normally scoff at picking up a reliever with so many bad indicators it should only be for a few weeks (we hope) and he'll collect valuable saves in that time.
The Hot Young Starter Everyone Wants: Luke Hochevar
The pitcher that every fantasy owner on the planet either tried to pick up or wished they could have over the last few days is Luke Hochevar. Hochevar flashed his ability in an otherwise mediocre debut season in 2008. The Royals banished him to triple-A this season to experiment with Sidney Ponson (lunacy I know). While Sidney Ponson was accumulating his typical numbers (on the bad side of mediocre) Hochevar was proving that he did in fact learn a few things in his 22 major league starts. In his six minor league starts this season pitched to a 0.90 ERA (3.10 FIP) by showing improved control and a little luck.
Hochevar is a extreme groundball pitcher with a good strikeout rate (expect something between 6.00 and 7.00) and very good control. The PCL is a hitters league and Hochevar's dominance in triple-A has mirrored Zack Grienke's in the majors. That is not to say I believe Hochevar will continue to be this good in the majors. I do believe that he will be a very good major league pitcher this season. He may have the typical ups and downs that young pitchers experience but all in all he should be worth picking up in leagues of all sizes and types.
The Marlins have called up second base prospect Chris Coghlan and it appears that he will soon replace week one hero Emilio Bonifacio in the starting lineup. The early plan is to have Coghlan play multiple positions but as essentially a regular in the lineup. He made his first start at his natural second base position and the next in the outfield. If Coghlan is productive and Bonifacio continues to slump a change could be made very quickly.
Coghlan is a disciplined hitter with strong contact skills. He has some pop and could hit around ten homers in a full season. He has just slightly above average speed but is a very good base stealer. He should accumulate 20-plus in a full season of at-bats. He is the player the Marlins project to eventually replace Dan Uggla at second base. Coghlan is a real prospect (Marlins #9 according to Baseball America) in a way that the well-traveled Bonifacio could never be. He will receive opportunities despite his production when Bonifacio could be replaced under similar circumstances.
As if the slump wasn't problem enough, Lance Berkman is now complaining of a sore wrist. The wrist is so sore that he was only able to take five swings in batting practice before Friday's game. He says he hurt the wrist on Thursday night during a check swing. I am certain we will hear about an MRI exam soon. A wrist injury can seriously impact a hitter. I would bench Berkman wherever possible (I'm sure he is already benched in many leagues) and start searching for a long term replacement. While I hope this is just a short term injury, my gut is telling me it will not be.
In addition to the wrist injury Berkman seems to have lost considerable faith in himself. He compared himself to Andruw Jones and other players who have mysteriously lost their ability to hit productively. He was also scheduled to move down to fifth in the order (shocking that this had not already happened) and that has to contribute to his depression.
“I can’t believe it took this long to be moved out of the three hole,” said Berkman. “I’ve been awful. It’s really the only logical thing. I’m sorry that I’ve forced Coop’s hand to this point."
"Hopefully this will work a little bit better for the team. I don’t know, but I’d like to think that,” he said. “But you know it’s certainly a scary place to be when you don’t have any answers and you don’t see really any improvement in your performance."
"The only thing (is that) in 2007 it was similar because I felt pretty terrible all the way through May. That was the first. I could be the next Andruw Jones,” he said. “I mean, it’s possible and it’s unexplainable.”
