To Read: Chipper Jones Interview

A member of the Fantasy Baseball Roundtable has secured an interview with the Atlanta Braves star third baseman, Chipper Jones. Since we always support our friends I am pointing out the interview so that you all (or y'all if you prefer) may enjoy it.The interview appears a few inches under the banner and breaking news at the top of the page.

The Chipper Jones Interview

Trade Advice: Shields/Berkman and Jones/Cruz

Hi Jon,

I'm in a mixed 6 team keeper roto league. I'm considering trading James Shields for Lance Berkman. Both of these players will become free agents at the end of this season. Berkman is suffering from some bad luck with his low babip as we all know. Possibly a good buy low situation?

It is important to note that the rest of my staff includes: Webb, Garza, Cain, Harden, Gallardo and Billingsley. I will surely go over my IP limit with 7 starters.

Thanks,
Jason

Hey Jason, in a six team league (assuming normal size rosters) I imagine there is decent talent available on the waiver wire in case of injuries. I love your pitching staff but with Brandon Webb having injury problems and Rich Harden's history of injuries it is important that you have some emergency options. Your staff is excellent and you are correct that if everything goes well you should easily meet most innings limits even without Shields on your roster.

James Shields is an excellent pitcher. He induces groundballs which helps limit the number of homers allowed. The Tampa Bay Rays have emphasized to their pitchers the importance of pitching to contact and allowing the defense to do its part. This has resulted in a significant drop in strikeouts by the starters. Shields has gone from a K/9 of 7.70 in 2007 to 6.70 in 2008 and just 5.05 thus far in the 2009 season. This is dragging down his fantasy value in 5x5 leagues. In addition, his BABIP is a very low .245 which indicates that a correction could be coming along with a potential jump in earned run average. This is not a pitcher to avoid, but his value looks like it could drop off from previous seasons.
Lance Berkman has started slowly. He suffered from a biceps injury that caused him to miss a few days early this season. This was reported as a minor injury and we haven't heard Berkman complain about it since his return. But he is presently batting .189 with six homeruns. His walk and strikeout rates are both a little higher than usual. His power seems as good as usual. This definitely looks (as Jason suggested) like just bad luck caused by a his pathetic .182 BABIP.

I would make this trade in an instant if I were in Jason's shoes. You probably won't have another chance to get Berkman at a value like this again this season as he is showing signs of breaking out of the slump.

Hi Jon

Great site and valuable insights. Wanted to get your thoughts on a trade offer. I'm strong in steals/runs, but need some power. Another owner has offered me Nelson Cruz in exchange for Adam Jones. While both players are at a peak right now, I'm not quite sold on Nelson maintaining his value through the year.

What do you think?

Thanks
Dan

Thanks for reading Dan. I like both players and I did write ups on them very recently. You can check them out here and here. I have faith that Nelson Cruz can continue to hit at his current power pace. The average could take a dip but I have faith that if healthy he will hit thirty homers this season. I like Adam Jones just as much and I think Jones will be a better player in the long term.

You did not provide too many details about your league but assuming there is not anything strange these two players are pretty equal in my eyes for the 2009 season. In a keeper league I would not part with Adam Jones because I believe his future is brighter. I also do not believe that there is a significant enough power difference between the two that would make this trade worthwhile for you. If you really want to move Jones for a power hitter I would aim much higher.

If you have a fantasy baseball question or need some advice please do not hesitate to contact me by e-mail (jon@advancedfantasybaseball.com), by commenting on the blog (you're halfway there already), Twitter me (@bigjonwilliams), or by instant messenger (bigjonempire on both AIM and Yahoo).

Now on the Waiver Wire...

The latest edition of The (Waiver) Wire is now up on Crucial Sports. As usual it features a mix of players that may be available in a wide variety of leagues. You can check it out as always by following this link:

The (Waiver) Wire A small sample:

The Mets have more than their fair share of problems this season. David Wright is doing his annual Augie Ojeda imitation. Doc Gooden signed the newly painted walls of Citi Field. In addition, Darryl Strawberry shared what he and Wilt Chamberlain have in common. With all of this happening, it would be easy to miss Jerry Manuel falling in love with Omir Santos. Santos came up through the Yankees’ system. He was considered one of those all glove no bat catching prospects. However, that has changed recently, and although he will never be a Russell Martin or Joe Mauer, he can certainly be an acceptable National League catcher in your NL-only league.

Trade Jose Reyes for Greinke, Jones, and Hill?

I'm in a 14 team 4 player keeper league that is now in its fifth year. I can't sleep at night with a feeling of buyers remorse after making a trade yesterday. I decided to deal my fantasy God Jose Reyes for Zack Greinke, Adam Jones, and Aaron Hill. I have owned Reyes since his career began but this trade seemed so interesting. Did I do the wrong thing here in getting rid of Reyes for possibly some players who could be over performing now. Honestly I just wanted to hear an outside opinion because I'm getting ripped apart on the boards in my league.

-- Scott

I think you can relax, Scott. I think you made a great deal for yourself. It is always hard when you give up the unquestioned best player in the deal. You are right that Zack Greinke probably will not have an earned run average under 1.00 for the entire season. Adam Jones is unlikely to bat for a .380 average. Aaron Hill may hit 20 homeruns but I would be shocked if he hit the 30-plus for which he is presently on pace. But that is no reason to worry.
Zack Greinke is becoming the ace pitcher he was always projected to be. He should be a Cy Young contender all season. He is striking out better than a batter per inning which is excellent for a starter but only slightly better than the pace has established over the last few seasons. His BABIP is .292 so far which indicates that he hasn't been particularly lucky with balls in play. He induces ground balls so he should limit the damage that flyballs can do as well. FanGraphs has him with an FIP of 1.38 (compare it to ERA if you aren't familiar -- with some luck factors removed) so it is not an illusion, he is in fact pitching like an ace.

Adam Jones has been projected as a potential 30/30 star outfielder by dozens of analysts including me. In addition, Jones was predicted to ready for a breakout entering this season by just about every fantasy writer in the business. He is being more patient at the plate so far with 9.1 percent walk rate compared to a 5.2 percent career rate. His contact rate has improved and swinging at better pitches naturally leads to better numbers. I believe the batting average will come down to the .290-.300 range. But the power? The power is here to stay. I think we're looking at a very real 30/30 ((okay, maybe 30/20) season in the making.

I've always liked Aaron Hill a little more than most. Probably because I drafted him as a minor leaguer in my primary AL-only and he contributed to a championship. Hill is getting lucky at the plate so far. His walk and strikeout rates are right at his career averages. His BABIP is at .388, almost 70 points over his career average. His career high in homeruns is just 17 (hit the year before his injury) but at age 27 he would not be the first player with experience to see a power spike. I doubt he hits 30 homers but a career high in the 20-25 range would not be ridiculous. His average will come closer to his career .289 average. Some might consider this a disappointing analysis but a .290 average with 20-plus homers from second base is not a bad thing.

I have to assume Scott, because he made the deal that he is not concerned with stolen bases because this is the area you will no doubt lose the most. Jose Reyes is in a mini-slump after starting the season fairly hot. This is mostly the result of an unlucky streak. His BABIP is .283, almost 40 points below his 2008 level and 27 points below his career level. I am not at all worried about Reyes' production. Jones will lessen that loss slightly but the big benefit in this trade is in homeruns, Runs, RBI, and adding the (presently anyway) best pitcher in baseball. You should relax Scott, and tell your league mates they can drink out of your championship trophy at the end of the season...after they admit they were wrong.

Trade Advice: B.J. Upton for Nelson Cruz

Hello Jon,

I'm in a mixed 18 team head to head, keeper, points league. I have just been offered BJ Upton for Nelson Cruz. This looks to be a classic buy low, sell high trade but Upton's high stikeouts and .152 avg scare me. Is he healthy and do you think he will turn his season around? Thanks

James in San Diego

This is definitely a tough one, I'm going to assume that there are no salaries to be concerned with here. I do think that B.J. Upton will come around eventually. As Jason Grey of ESPN recently wrote - it takes a while for a batter coming off shoulder surgery to regain his swing. Some batters will take longer than others. And judging by the struggles that other players like Travis Hafner, Shawn Green and Carlos Quentin endured after their surgeries expecting Upton to recover quickly looks like a long shot. Upton was still recovering from the injury when the season started and I believe that he rushed to get back on the field, possibly to his own detriment. This does not mean I would give up on Upton if I owned him (and I do in a few leagues). Upton is striking out a lot right now and appears to be experiencing some bad luck with balls in play (.231 BABIP). I think at some point (possibly after a stint on the disabled list) Upton will not only get it together but explode in production.

But you don't own Upton, you own Nelson Cruz who is playing great right now. I do believe that Nelson Cruz will establish himself as a major league player this season. He is already on pace for 30-plus homers and around 20 steals with about a .280 batting average. I believe Cruz will only get better when Josh Hamilton returns to the lineup and starts to hit. Cruz does have a very high BABIP right now (so his batting average could come down a bit) but he has been maintaining a high BABIP for the last few years in the minors and I believe his normal level is still a pretty high .330 or so.

Everything being equal I believe Upton is capable of putting up better numbers than Cruz. However, I cannot endorse trading Cruz for Upton right now. You just aren't getting enough of a discount in my opinion. If Upton continues to struggle you may get him for even less of a value than Cruz (assuming the owner does not move him to someone else first). I would counter with a lesser but still fairly productive player and see if he bites. Otherwise my advice is to wait a little longer. You may end up without Upton but you also will not have to suffer through the rest of his recovery and adjustment period.

If you have a fantasy baseball question or need some advice please do not hesitate to contact me by e-mail (jon@advancedfantasybaseball.com), by commenting on the blog (you're halfway there already), Twitter me (@bigjonwilliams), or by instant messenger (bigjonempire on both AIM and Yahoo).

The Fantasy Baseball Roundtable Continues

This week's Fantasy Baseball Roundtable is being hosted by RotoAuthority.com (respect it!) and Tim Dierkes has asked the collected members:

Here on April 30th, what is your single biggest fantasy baseball regret of the year?

Check out a wide variety of answers from some of the best Fantasy Baseball Bloggers in the business.

Moving Up: David Aardsma

He has been a potential closer for longer than is recommended. He has shown better stuff than results...until this season that is. With the Seattle Mariner closer Brandon Morrow, on the disabled list with right biceps tendinitis (a minor but annoying problem for a pitcher who is called on multiple times a week) David Aardsma is the favorite to see save opportunities.

Aardsma has pitched very well for new Mariner manager Don Wakamatsu. Wakamatsu demonstrated that he would not hesitate to use Aardsma in a save situation just last week and Aardsma succeeded without incident.

"You've seen the value of having two guys that have the stuff and the makeup to do the job," manager Don Wakamatsu said Sunday to MLB.com.

One of the tenets of Advanced Fantasy Baseball is "ride the hot arms until you cannot ride them any longer." Aardsma is pitching very well pick him up and use him until he stops pitching well. If you need saves he is one pitcher that is still available in a lot of leagues about to get the chance to close.

Brandon Morrow to the Disabled List

The Mariners Closing Duo