Sunday, May 03, 2009

Moving Up: David Aardsma

He has been a potential closer for longer than is recommended. He has shown better stuff than results...until this season that is. With the Seattle Mariner closer Brandon Morrow, on the disabled list with right biceps tendinitis (a minor but annoying problem for a pitcher who is called on multiple times a week) David Aardsma is the favorite to see save opportunities.

Aardsma has pitched very well for new Mariner manager Don Wakamatsu. Wakamatsu demonstrated that he would not hesitate to use Aardsma in a save situation just last week and Aardsma succeeded without incident.
"You've seen the value of having two guys that have the stuff and the makeup to do the job," manager Don Wakamatsu said Sunday to MLB.com.
One of the tenets of Advanced Fantasy Baseball is "ride the hot arms until you cannot ride them any longer." Aardsma is pitching very well pick him up and use him until he stops pitching well. If you need saves he is one pitcher that is still available in a lot of leagues about to get the chance to close.

Brandon Morrow to the Disabled List

The Mariners Closing Duo

Thursday, April 30, 2009

Moving Up: Matt LaPorta

With Travis Hafner on the disabled list the Cleveland Indians have called up top outfield prospect Matt LaPorta. LaPorta of course was the key reward when the Indians dealt CC Sabathia to the Milwaukee Brewers. He should be picked up in all but the shallowest of leagues. He begins by platooning with David Dellucci but if he continues to hit the way he was at triple-A that won't last long.

LaPorta has amazing power and should eventually hit for a good average. He has good contact skills but still needs to develop more patience and discipline at the plate. In a full season of at-bats he could easily hit 30 homeruns and is likely to approach forty once he adjusts to the major leagues. This season I would expect something in the 260-270 range with 25-plus homers if he stays in the majors the rest of the season. He is likely to be streaky as pitchers adjust and he adjusts back to them. But those hot streaks will be what fantasy owners live for -- like the older players in your league when they talk about Darryl Strawberry's epic streaks.

IMPORTANT: Do not sleep on Luis Valbuena who was also called up. He could very well be starting before the end of the week. He has pop and speed and qualifies at second base.

Season Team G AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI BB SO SB CS AVG
2007 Brewers (R) 7 27 7 1 0 2 4 4 1 8 0 0 0.259
2007 Brewers (A) 23 88 28 8 0 10 18 27 7 22 0 1 0.318
2008 Indians (AA) 17 60 14 1 0 2 6 8 4 12 0 0 0.233
2008 Brewers (AA) 84 302 87 23 2 20 56 66 45 63 2 1 0.288
2009 Indians (AAA) 21 75 25 4 2 5 22 14 9 10 0 0 0.333

LaPorta called up and ready to play


Matt LaPorta and Luis Valbuena Ready for Impact

Hot Prospect Profile—MATT LAPORTA

Me, Albert Pujols, and the Magic Lamp


I was walking around the perimeter of the little league field scouting for future big leaguers I could take in my farm system drafts when I tripped over some junk behind the center field fence. Russell Field was very deep in center field (for a little league park) thus very few people wandered this way. I pulled myself back onto my feet, holding the fence for support. I kicked the pile of junk and saw what appeared to be an old kerosene lamp. I picked it up and rubbed the face of it with my sleeve -- more in the interest of keeping the gunk off my hands than actually cleaning it. It suddenly became very hot and I dropped it. It began to smoke. I started to walk away quickly but then the smoke began to take the shape of a man who looked an awful lot like Albert Pujols if you discounted the fact that he had wisps of smoke rather than legs.

I stood in stunned silence starring at what I was certain was an hallucination of some kind. It reminded me of the time I thought I saw a giant space craft floating over Malden Square. I don't do drugs and I was not drinking this time. The smokey man was adjusting his sweater vest which looked very tacky over his otherwise bare torso. He said something to me but it did not register. He repeated it but much louder.

"Thank you for freeing me," he said. "I've been trapped in that thing since the seventies."

I really wasn't sure I wanted to enter into conversation with my delusions so I just nodded. He seemed slightly annoyed with me as if waiting for me to do something. I tried just turning and walking away, I had settled on the idea that I was dehydrated and should pick up a bottle of water as soon as possible. But the smokey Pujols appeared directly in front of me as if he had been there all along.

"Apparently you do not know how this works. I am a Baseball Genie. I can influence events and give you knowledge of baseball beyond all men. As the person who has freed me from my captivity I will allow you five wishes."

"Five," I asked. "I thought genies customarily only allowed three wishes."

"Are you complaining or would you rather not have any wishes at all?"

"Uh, okay sorry about that. Can you give me enough money to buy the New York Yankees and still have billions to spare?"

"Are you not listening? I am a Baseball Genie. I do not have the power to grant wishes that are unrelated to baseball. So I cannot give you money or make any part of you bigger or smaller. I cannot make girls fall in love with you or make being fat cool."

"Fine. You don't have to get all testy about it. You being a lame genie is not my fault."

"I walk perfectly fine when I choose not to float. I am growing tired of this. What are your five wishes?"

WISH ONE
I wish to have a perfect understanding of baseball. I want to be able to look at stats or see a player on the field and instantly know exactly what his potential is. I want this understanding to also include what general managers are thinking when they make personnel changes. Eventually word of my outstanding understanding will reach general managers and owners everywhere. But I would turn down offers from every team except the most pathetic franchises. The worse the team the more likely I would be to help. Just think what that would do for my blog!


WISH TWO

I wish steroids has never existed. I wish every achievement in baseball history was completely untainted by anything having to do with performance enhancing drugs. I am assuming that this would result in Barry Bonds being perceived as a Hall-of-Fame bastard, rather than a bastard who will never be in the Hall-of-Fame. Mark McGuire, Sammy Sosa, Roger Clemens, Rafael Palmeiro, and Jose Canseco could all be fun again.


WISH THREE
I wish MLB Opening Day was a National Holiday. We have so many stupid holidays for so and so's birthday and to honor this group and that group. Just think how many people could avoid lying to their bosses or using up vacation days. We could have parades in the morning (parades in April have to be better than parades in January, right?) and barbecue traditions after the game. Since everyone had the day off all the games could be day games.


WISH FOUR
I wish everyone played fantasy baseball the way everyone listens to music. I know not everyone listens to music but the people who never listen to any music at all are few and far between. I want fantasy baseball to be integrated into normal life that way. Think about it, kids would want to learn advanced math to improve their ability to understand baseball through statistical analysis. Men and Women of all ages would have another common point of interest. Parents could tell their children stories of the days when every league was either American League or National League and they never mixed and their children could be annoyed about it.


WISH FIVE
I wish that every kid would play baseball. I want baseball to be everyone's favorite sport. I never want to pass a baseball field again that isn't either covered with snow or kids playing ball. I want little league to be like the cub scouts used to be before too many scary things happened. I want being on a little league team to teach kids the values that so many do not seem to be learning. I want kids to learn to work together and to support each other. I want baseball to work through children to eliminate prejudice. I want baseball to be too important to be tainted by petty differences.


"Damn you sound like a beauty pagaent contestant," the genie laughed. "But I like it."

He winked and made some odd gestures with his hands. There was a distant rumble and he blinked out of site. I can only hope my wishes come true.

Now, Back to the other kind of fantasy baseball...

Monday, April 27, 2009

The Injuries Pile Up Quickly

Dealing with injuries is probably the toughest thing a fantasy owner has to deal with during the season. In deeper leagues it can be incredibly difficult to find replacements capable of putting up acceptable numbers, especially when it comes to pitchers. Sure, there are usually lots of arms on the free-agent list but rarely are they the types you want to have on your roster for a month or two. I judge whether or not to replace a particular player with a particular free agent on a few different criteria.

  1. Do the league rules allow me to drop a player at will? In leagues that force you to hold on to replacement players until the original player returns or the replacement is himself disabled or sent to the minors, I will often avoid picking up previously unknown quantities.
  2. Is the player being replaced expected to be out longer than two weeks? If a player is going to be out for the season (especially when the injury occurs in April or May) I will hold off on replacing them (as rules allow) until I can find a good long term replacement. I don't want to risk being stuck with Omir Santos all season if I have no chance of dumping him.
  3. How good is the team of the potential replacement? This can be tricky but I would prefer to find replacement on good teams. This is because a good team is unlikely to keep a player around who fails to produce. Unfortunately, the good teams will sometimes just keep the player on the roster (especially pitchers) and use them in the absolute worse situations --blow outs and in the 14th inning when there are no other options.
  4. Could the potential replacement win a regular role if he does well? I love when this happens. Right now, I'm hoping Garrett Mock and Omir Santos turn into regulars. Top prospects and older veterans are great for this type of speculation. At some point this season I hope to take a chance on Jim Edmonds and Pedro Martinez.
  5. How desperate am I am for at-bats or innings? Under normal circumstances I would not go near a player a like Augie Ojeda but when the injuries start to pile up at-bats become very important. You want to remain competitive in runs and rbi and even the worst players when they continue to receive at-bats can help you in these categories. When I'm desperate for innings things are a little different. Obviously you don't want to pick up a pitcher just because he pitches a lot. That's a good way to end up with the worst Rockies type starter who will almost certainly blow up your ERA and WHIP. If you can add/drop players at will you can just rotate between favorable starts. Otherwise I suggest you pick the pitcher with the highest combination of groundball rate and strikeout rate. Hopefully that pitcher will be on a good team with a good defense.

Orioles expect Mora back Friday

Soria tests shoulder, throws on Sunday

McLouth's return likely a few days away

Derrek Lee day-to-day with neck spasms

Mauer targets Friday return to Twins

Girardi hopeful Damon can return to action on Monday

With Drew on DL, D-backs shuffle roster

The Fantasy Baseball Roundtable

This week's Fantasy Baseball Roundtable is up at FantasyPros911. The question of the week:

Would you prefer to have Howie Kendrick or Aaron Hill for the remainder of the season?

You can check out the various answers right here.

Advanced Fantasy Baseball

Happy Birthday to me. I only mention it because I would like something from everyone who visits the site today. I want you to tell me how I can improve this site. How to make it a site you'd like to visit everyday.

Please leave a comment, send me an e-mail, twitter me, find me on facebook...whatever way you like. If you aren't into fantasy baseball that doesn't mean you can't comment. Just judge the site on other criteria.

Thanks.

Sunday, April 26, 2009

The Yankees Re-Boot their Pitching Staff


Sometimes I wonder why the Yankees (and every other big market team) have to see things fail before they make the moves that seem so obvious to me and I'm certain many others. The Yankees finally placed Chien-Ming Wang on the disabled list to give him time to re-build his arm strength. Brian Bruney and Cody Ransom also hit the disabled list. They recalled closer of the future Mark Melancon and the talented David Robertson to fill roles in the bullpen. Angel Berroa who looked great this spring had to wait for Cody Ransom of all people to get hurt before getting a job.

I thought it was obvious at the end of the 2008 season that those two players would have big roles to play in the 2009 bullpen. It also seemed as if the Yankees knew it too. But rather than give them jobs to start the season they insist on working with lesser talents and blow a few games before doing what they knew months ago they would do eventually. But maybe I'm missing some subtle ability in Cody Ransom and some skill that Robertson and Melancon were missing that a few weeks in the minor leagues solved...

Owners in American League-only should grab Melancon as soon as possible. He should take over the eighth inning role this season and eventually replace Mariano Rivera as the Yankees closer. David Robertson is another option for the Yankees that I like a lot. He has great stuff and should provide strikeouts in bunches. He has control issues at times like most young pitchers but has shown improvement lately. The Yankees released Humberto Sanchez which seemed unnecessary to me. I can think of a few names I would rather dump before giving up on him. Though again, the Yankees probably have some information I don't. Seriously, they probably do.

Phil Hughes, who I suggested to anyone who listened as a bullpen candidate out of spring training, is expected to get the call on Tuesday to start in Wang's spot. He is probably getting two starts on the road which is not really a bad thing. I sincerely believe that Hughes will never ride a minor league bus again. I'll be picking him up in every league possible. It wasn't so long ago that Hughes was more highly thought of than Joba Chamberlain.

Speaking of Joba...the Yankees need to stop babying him so much. I respect that they want to be responsible with his arm and put restraints on his pitch counts but I think its holding him back. From watching him, I think Joba pitches better when his arm is well stretched. In the bullpen he always seemed to pitch better when he had multiple outings in a week. When he went long stretches his control would leave him. This is not an argument that he should return to the pen. But rather that the Yankees should extend his pitch count a little and stop skipping him in the rotation. I still love Joba as a fantasy option he just won't do much good for fantasy owners or the Yankees until they stop treating him with kid gloves.

Mark Melancon Statistics


Mark Melancon Profile


Mark Melancon Spring Report