The Injuries Pile Up Quickly

Dealing with injuries is probably the toughest thing a fantasy owner has to deal with during the season. In deeper leagues it can be incredibly difficult to find replacements capable of putting up acceptable numbers, especially when it comes to pitchers. Sure, there are usually lots of arms on the free-agent list but rarely are they the types you want to have on your roster for a month or two. I judge whether or not to replace a particular player with a particular free agent on a few different criteria.

1. Do the league rules allow me to drop a player at will? In leagues that force you to hold on to replacement players until the original player returns or the replacement is himself disabled or sent to the minors, I will often avoid picking up previously unknown quantities.
   
2. Is the player being replaced expected to be out longer than two weeks? If a player is going to be out for the season (especially when the injury occurs in April or May) I will hold off on replacing them (as rules allow) until I can find a good long term replacement. I don't want to risk being stuck with Omir Santos all season if I have no chance of dumping him.
3. How good is the team of the potential replacement? This can be tricky but I would prefer to find replacement on good teams. This is because a good team is unlikely to keep a player around who fails to produce. Unfortunately, the good teams will sometimes just keep the player on the roster (especially pitchers) and use them in the absolute worse situations --blow outs and in the 14th inning when there are no other options.
4. Could the potential replacement win a regular role if he does well? I love when this happens. Right now, I'm hoping Garrett Mock and Omir Santos turn into regulars. Top prospects and older veterans are great for this type of speculation. At some point this season I hope to take a chance on Jim Edmonds and Pedro Martinez.
5. How desperate am I am for at-bats or innings? Under normal circumstances I would not go near a player a like Augie Ojeda but when the injuries start to pile up at-bats become very important. You want to remain competitive in runs and rbi and even the worst players when they continue to receive at-bats can help you in these categories. When I'm desperate for innings things are a little different. Obviously you don't want to pick up a pitcher just because he pitches a lot. That's a good way to end up with the worst Rockies type starter who will almost certainly blow up your ERA and WHIP. If you can add/drop players at will you can just rotate between favorable starts. Otherwise I suggest you pick the pitcher with the highest combination of groundball rate and strikeout rate. Hopefully that pitcher will be on a good team with a good defense.
   

Orioles expect Mora back Friday

Soria tests shoulder, throws on Sunday

McLouth's return likely a few days away

Derrek Lee day-to-day with neck spasms

Mauer targets Friday return to Twins

Girardi hopeful Damon can return to action on Monday

With Drew on DL, D-backs shuffle roster

The Fantasy Baseball Roundtable

This week's Fantasy Baseball Roundtable is up at FantasyPros911. The question of the week:

Would you prefer to have Howie Kendrick or Aaron Hill for the remainder of the season?

You can check out the various answers right here.

Advanced Fantasy Baseball

Happy Birthday to me. I only mention it because I would like something from everyone who visits the site today. I want you to tell me how I can improve this site. How to make it a site you'd like to visit everyday.

Please leave a comment, send me an e-mail, twitter me, find me on facebook...whatever way you like. If you aren't into fantasy baseball that doesn't mean you can't comment. Just judge the site on other criteria.

Thanks.

The Yankees Re-Boot their Pitching Staff

Sometimes I wonder why the Yankees (and every other big market team) have to see things fail before they make the moves that seem so obvious to me and I'm certain many others. The Yankees finally placed Chien-Ming Wang on the disabled list to give him time to re-build his arm strength. Brian Bruney and Cody Ransom also hit the disabled list. They recalled closer of the future Mark Melancon and the talented David Robertson to fill roles in the bullpen. Angel Berroa who looked great this spring had to wait for Cody Ransom of all people to get hurt before getting a job.

I thought it was obvious at the end of the 2008 season that those two players would have big roles to play in the 2009 bullpen. It also seemed as if the Yankees knew it too. But rather than give them jobs to start the season they insist on working with lesser talents and blow a few games before doing what they knew months ago they would do eventually. But maybe I'm missing some subtle ability in Cody Ransom and some skill that Robertson and Melancon were missing that a few weeks in the minor leagues solved...

Owners in American League-only should grab Melancon as soon as possible. He should take over the eighth inning role this season and eventually replace Mariano Rivera as the Yankees closer. David Robertson is another option for the Yankees that I like a lot. He has great stuff and should provide strikeouts in bunches. He has control issues at times like most young pitchers but has shown improvement lately. The Yankees released Humberto Sanchez which seemed unnecessary to me. I can think of a few names I would rather dump before giving up on him. Though again, the Yankees probably have some information I don't. Seriously, they probably do.

Phil Hughes, who I suggested to anyone who listened as a bullpen candidate out of spring training, is expected to get the call on Tuesday to start in Wang's spot. He is probably getting two starts on the road which is not really a bad thing. I sincerely believe that Hughes will never ride a minor league bus again. I'll be picking him up in every league possible. It wasn't so long ago that Hughes was more highly thought of than Joba Chamberlain.

Speaking of Joba...the Yankees need to stop babying him so much. I respect that they want to be responsible with his arm and put restraints on his pitch counts but I think its holding him back. From watching him, I think Joba pitches better when his arm is well stretched. In the bullpen he always seemed to pitch better when he had multiple outings in a week. When he went long stretches his control would leave him. This is not an argument that he should return to the pen. But rather that the Yankees should extend his pitch count a little and stop skipping him in the rotation. I still love Joba as a fantasy option he just won't do much good for fantasy owners or the Yankees until they stop treating him with kid gloves.

Mark Melancon Statistics

Mark Melancon Profile

Mark Melancon Spring Report

Scott Downs is the New Closer in Toronto

Scott Downs has become the new closer in Toronto after the Blue Jays disabled B.J. Ryan with "muscle tightness" which is actually code for "you suck majorly right now." Coincidentally this took place immediately after Ryan blew his second save of the season. Downs has been ready for an important role on the Blue Jays for a while and Cito Gaston has been waiting for an excuse to make the change since mid-March.

It doesn't seem likely that anyone that reads this blog is in a league where Downs is still available (I've been drooling over him for as long as Cito Gaston has wanted him in the role --since last season in other words) but it is definitely worth checking. He is an extreme groundball pitcher who strikes out nearly a batter per inning (far better than that so far this season) and plays in front of what is an excellent defense. There is nothing not to like here.

Season	Team	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	FIP
2000	Cubs/Expos	5.85	3.71	1.58	1.21	1.67	0.341	0.71	4.97
2000	Cubs	6.03	3.54	1.70	1.24	1.64	0.340	0.71	4.93
2000	Expos	0.00	9.00	0.00	0.00	2.67	0.371	0.63	6.13
2003	Expos	12.00	9.00	1.33	6.00	2.67	0.402	0.58	12.03
2004	Expos	5.43	3.29	1.65	1.29	1.62	0.334	0.63	4.94
2005	Blue Jays	7.18	3.26	2.21	1.15	1.35	0.299	0.72	4.33
2006	Blue Jays	7.13	3.51	2.03	1.05	1.34	0.291	0.73	4.33
2007	Blue Jays	8.84	3.72	2.38	0.47	1.22	0.292	0.84	3.24
2008	Blue Jays	7.26	3.44	2.11	0.38	1.15	0.264	0.87	3.39
2009	Blue Jays	13.50	0.00	13.00	0.00	0.46	0.259	0.80	0.58

Cubs call up Samardzija; Bradley back in right

Pedro, Big Hurt, Edmonds among the free agents still looking for work

Angels should be a bit more worried, but they did call up Brandon Wood

Riske facing possible surgery Tigers designated hitter Marcus Thames out with 'major injury' to rib cage area

Another two-strikeout inning for Zumaya Oblique strain forces Romero to DL

Just A Little Trade Advice

The longer articles I promised last week are still in progress (just becoming very very long). I'm diverting my attention from those articles to offer a little advice. I received an e-mail from a reader, call him Jay. He wanted some advice on a trade. His AL-only team had some strength in pitching but definitely has some holes on offense. He was offered the following deal:

Jay Deals: Cliff Lee $3

Jay Receives: Travis Snider $10, Taylor Teagarden $4, and Joel Zumaya $5

Cliff Lee at $3 is a great deal but at his age I think his future is as a competent, slightly above average major league starter and not a perennial Cy Young contender.

Travis Snider gives the Jay the big bat he needs in the outfield. Although Snider is a rookie he has had no problem making adjustments and should be a top 20 American League outfielder in the very near future.

Taylor Teagarden fills the gapping hole Jay has at catcher. Teagarden should also gain at-bats as Jarrod Saltalamacchia makes much slower adjustments to the major leagues. Teagarden has good power and while he won't win any batting titles should hit for a decent average.

Joel Zumaya is a great pitcher when he's healthy which has not been often. I see him assuming the closer role for the Tigers in the second half of the season. Jay, as you may have guessed could also use some help in the saves department.

The players Jay is receiving should all be very keepable in an AL-only league. They also have great value to rebuilding teams (which I don't think Jay should consider just yet) and will either set him up well for the future or become bait for dumping teams. Either way I think this is a great trade for Jay.

In fact I can't see this trade as bad for Jay unless Lee threatens to win another Cy Young (not happening says my pyschic powers).

Good News and Bad News

The Good News is Miguel Cabrera is staying put on the Detroit Tigers. This means that his AL-only owners do not have to fear losing one of the better hitters in baseball. The Bad News is that Miguel Cabrera is still on one of the lesser teams in the American League. The Tigers do not have a bad lineup but just because they won't consider trading Cabrera does not mean they won't trade any of their other hitters to improve the team in the long term, which would seriously impact Cabrera's production.

The Angels are considering a group of free agent starters that could be of interest to fantasy owners, which is Good News. General Manager David Reagins has contacted the agents for Pedro Martinez, Paul Byrd, and Mark Mulder. All of these pitchers have been fantastic fantasy options at one point or another. As a fantasy owner I am always happy when more options become available even if I am not the beneficiary. The Bad News is that these guys are all unemployed right now for a reason -- their lack of production or health (sometimes both) in their most recent appearances.

John Lackey and Ervin Santana should begin rehab assignments soon. This is good news for those owners. If they both come back healthy and effective they could be among the better pitchers in the American League. The Bad News is elbow and shoulder injuries in pitchers are always a cause for concern. The rest and rehabbing they have done did not rid them of their problems but merely strengthened the area around the injuries. The hope is that this will allow them to ignore the problem for another chunk of time. That could be a matter of years or days.

Xavier Nady will not need surgery and may be able to return in a month or so, which is Good News. The Yankees and Nady's owners were counting on him to maintain the gains he showed in the last couple of years. Unfortunately (and this is the Bad News), Nady does have a partially torn ligament in his elbow. It could completely tear at any time which is why the Yankees are now considering using him as a designated hitter. Which means that Hideki Matsui will be in the field sooner and perhaps more often than we thought. It could also mean that the Yankees will have two DH's on the roster and both will be less productive (less at-bats) than projected.

Ryan Doumit will miss the next 8 weeks (at least) after wrist surgery. This has to be considered Bad News. I engaged in some twittering yesterday about Doumit replacements (you can follow me @bigjonwilliams) and the consensus in most AL-only leagues is that the pickings are quite slim. In some leagues Lou Marson is available (I can't see him receiving many at-bats but he can hit), or Jason Jaramillo (he is not a great hitter but there are worse options). In shallower mixed leagues you might find John Baker (a great hitter without much power) or Nick Hundley ( he has power but isn't much of a hitter). The Good News is that Doumit is projected to be back in 8-10 weeks so his return to your roster will seem like a nice post All-Star Break acquisition. I also revealed that I had an opportunity to trade for Geovanny Soto to replace Doumit but the asking price turned out to be too high in my opinion. My rebuilding league mate wanted Doumit $10A, Nate McClouth $12c11, and minor leaguer Brett Wallace for Soto $15A and Brad Hawpe $27. With Soto also banged up and struggling at the plate I thought this was way too much.

What the hell is wrong with Geovanny Soto?

Ryan Doumit out 8-10 weeks, having surgery

Xavier Nady's ligament is only partially torn

Angels' Reagins begins looking outside for pitching help

The Facts About Omir Santos and (much older) Santos Shakes Off the Rust