Jason Grey of ESPN is probably my favorite fantasy baseball analyst. In this article he gives lots of Draft Day Auction advice. Pretty standard stuff but good reading anyway. I always slot my auction dollars in a similar fashion though I probably go more extreme to the hitting side than most will dare.
My buddy Brian Joura writes about his own Daniel Murphy obsession. I know I have one. I recently traded a $26 Brandon Phillips for a $6 Daniel Murphy(w/Seth McClung) in my primary NL-only league. I wish someone would wager with me...
A lot of owners are avoiding Texas Ranger starters as they used to avoid Colorado Rockies pitchers. Because of the great hitter's park where they play their home games. I have a hunch those owners will begin making exceptions with the great crop of arms coming up and the tremendous investment in pitching minds like Mike Maddux and Nolan Ryan to guide them. Though expecting Kris Benson to become an ownable pitcher is not dissimilar to expecting Mike Tyson to win a humanitarian award.
I went into winter with the assumption that Elijah Dukes would be a regular in the outfield for the Washington Nationals. Despite signing Adam Dunn, everything I read suggested that remained the case, until now...
My favorite Top Prospects List...
Gary Sheffield is a New York Met (and my boy Daniel Murphy still has a full time job!) and could reach 500 homers in New York. I knew the Mets couldn't start the season without an aging injury risk on the roster!
Friday, April 03, 2009
Adam Ronis - A Knight of the Roundtable
Adam Ronis of News Day is the host of the Fantasy Baseball Roundtable this week. He asked the assembled Knights if there were players that we would not draft no matter how far they slipped in the draft or auction. You can read the entry at the link below:
Thursday, April 02, 2009
Moving Up: Marcus Thames
With Gary Sheffield's release last week Marcus Thames received a huge boost in fantasy value. He should receive close to regular at-bats by taking most of the designated hitter at-bats as well as playing some left field when Carlos Guillen is unable to play or just needs a break. But how good is Marcus Thames?
Thames has shown the ability to hit 40 plus homers if given a full season of at-bats (550-600). Unfortunately, even if he receives those at-bats he isn't likely to hit better than .250-.260 and potentially worse than that. He does not walk much so his on-base percentage will be fairly low, though he may receive more walks due to the intimidation factor of an increasing homer total. This is not the player that will turn your team from a loser to dominate (if such a player even exists), but he can turn a good team to an even better one assuming that you are not also rostering Adam Dunn, Ryan Howard, Russell Branyan, and Mark Reynolds.
His stats courtesy of FanGraphs.com:
Thames has shown the ability to hit 40 plus homers if given a full season of at-bats (550-600). Unfortunately, even if he receives those at-bats he isn't likely to hit better than .250-.260 and potentially worse than that. He does not walk much so his on-base percentage will be fairly low, though he may receive more walks due to the intimidation factor of an increasing homer total. This is not the player that will turn your team from a loser to dominate (if such a player even exists), but he can turn a good team to an even better one assuming that you are not also rostering Adam Dunn, Ryan Howard, Russell Branyan, and Mark Reynolds.
His stats courtesy of FanGraphs.com:
| Season | Team | BB% | K% | BB/K | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | wRC | wRAA | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | Yankees | 0.0 % | 30.8 % | 0.00 | .231 | .538 | .769 | .308 | .250 | 1.5 | -0.1 | .321 |
| 2003 | Rangers | 9.9 % | 24.7 % | 0.44 | .298 | .274 | .572 | .068 | .259 | 5.5 | -4.8 | .259 |
| 2004 | Tigers | 8.8 % | 25.5 % | 0.38 | .326 | .509 | .835 | .255 | .283 | 26.2 | 3.4 | .352 |
| 2005 | Tigers | 7.8 % | 35.5 % | 0.24 | .263 | .411 | .674 | .215 | .226 | 10.4 | -3.8 | .287 |
| 2006 | Tigers | 9.6 % | 26.4 % | 0.40 | .333 | .549 | .882 | .293 | .274 | 61.8 | 12.9 | .370 |
| 2006 | Tigers | 4.5 % | 28.6 % | 0.17 | .273 | .333 | .606 | .095 | .333 | 1.5 | -1.2 | .266 |
| 2007 | Tigers (AAA) | 0.0 % | 12.5 % | 0.00 | .375 | .750 | 1.125 | .375 | .333 | 1.9 | 1.0 | .491 |
| 2007 | Tigers | 4.6 % | 26.8 % | 0.18 | .278 | .498 | .776 | .257 | .263 | 34.0 | -1.1 | .327 |
| 2008 | Tigers | 7.1 % | 30.1 % | 0.25 | .292 | .516 | .808 | .275 | .260 | 44.1 | 2.9 | .339 |
| 2009 | Bill James | 8.3 % | 25.1 % | 0.36 | .314 | .512 | .826 | .261 | .268 | 50.9 | 2.8 | .352 |
| 2009 | CHONE | 8.2 % | 27.7 % | 0.32 | .314 | .506 | .820 | .257 | .274 | 53.3 | 7.7 | .352 |
| 2009 | Marcel | 7.6 % | 26.8 % | 0.31 | .306 | .490 | .796 | .244 | .275 | 49.8 | 1.7 | .337 |
| 2009 | Oliver | 7.7 % | 25.4 % | 0.33 | .312 | .514 | .826 | .261 | .275 | 45.8 | 4.9 | .348 |
| 2009 | ZiPS | 7.8 % | 27.7 % | 0.30 | .309 | .512 | .821 | .263 | .274 | 43.1 | 5.7 | .349 |
New England Rotisserie Baseball Association
NERBA, or the New England Rotisserie Baseball Association, had its draft on Tuesday night. Nerba, as we affectionately refer to the league, is entering season 22. The number of teams has varied over the years from 20 in the good ol' days to down to 14 in the worst years. But it has been pretty stable lately at 16 teams. It is obviously a mixed league and uses standard 5x5 categories. It is not a snake draft. The pick each team has varies in each round, which can create unique challenges when you end up with 32 selections between picks twice in a row. Most of these guys are 20-year veterans of fantasy and know their stuff pretty well.
This is one of many leagues where I usually avoid pitching until after the first 8-10 rounds. I varied from that strategy hugely by taking three pitchers in the first eight rounds. I tried to draft as many power/speed combos as possible but mostly I was just winging it.
The Really Rad Running Rebels (in this league I'm a different sort of running rebel every season)
C Kenji Johjima
C Jesus Flores
1B Mike Jacobs
3B Aubrey Huff
CI Todd Helton
2B Alexei Ramirez
SS Elvis Andrus
MI Placido Polanco
OF Matt Kemp
OF Shane Victorino
OF Torii Hunter
OF Daniel Murphy
OF Jordan Schafer
U Kendry Morales
SP Tim Lincecum
SP Javier Vazquez
SP Kevin Slowey
SP Manny Parra
SP Kenshim Kawakami
RP Trevor Hoffman
RP Brad Zeigler
RP Scott Downs
RP Jeremy Affeldt
Thoughts?
Wednesday, April 01, 2009
The Detroit Tigers Go Young
Not so much on this blog but in conversations with league mates and on message boards I've been saying that Gary Sheffield was toast and not worth drafting. That said, I was shocked when I heard that the Tigers had released him. Fourteen million is a lot to pay a player to perform for another team. I should have seen it coming when they acquired Josh Anderson (who I like a lot). I see Marcus Thames and Carlos Guillen getting the bulk of the designated hitter at-bats with Anderson frequently starting in the outfield for a boost to both the defense and the team speed.
I expect to see Anderson leading off for the Tigers more often than not. He does not walk much, but his very good contact skills and speed allow him to post acceptable on-base percentages. His speed should be very disruptive to the opposition. I see 30-40 steals for Anderson this season.
Anderson's stats courtesy of FanGraphs.com:
The Tigers also awarded Ryan Perry a spot in the major league bullpen. He will not be closing, at least not right away. Jim Leyland plans to give Fernando Rodney the first opportunity. Rodney has been a solid reliever but has failed when given closer responsibilities. Perry was drafted with the expectation that he could quickly reach the majors and contribute to the bullpen. The closer of the future label has been tossed around a lot. He's definitely going to be a target of mine this weekend if the price is right.
Perry is very young and has not spent much time in the minors. But he has fantastic stuff. You can see his college numbers here. For what is worth here are his MiLB stats thus far:
Tigers Release Gary Sheffield
Porcello and Perry Earn Roster Spots
Porcello in Starting Rotation
I expect to see Anderson leading off for the Tigers more often than not. He does not walk much, but his very good contact skills and speed allow him to post acceptable on-base percentages. His speed should be very disruptive to the opposition. I see 30-40 steals for Anderson this season.
Anderson's stats courtesy of FanGraphs.com:
| Season | Team | BB% | K% | BB/K | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | wRC | wRAA | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | Astros (AA) | 4.6 % | 13.0 % | 0.37 | .349 | .385 | .734 | .077 | .351 | 76.5 | -1.2 | .339 |
| 2007 | Astros (AAA) | 5.9 % | 14.6 % | 0.43 | .325 | .341 | .666 | .068 | .317 | 58.4 | -16.5 | .311 |
| 2007 | Astros | 6.9 % | 9.0 % | 0.83 | .413 | .403 | .816 | .045 | .393 | 11.3 | 2.0 | .363 |
| 2008 | Braves (AAA) | 5.7 % | 11.5 % | 0.53 | .358 | .405 | .763 | .091 | .349 | 75.5 | 11.0 | .354 |
| 2008 | Braves | 5.6 % | 24.3 % | 0.24 | .338 | .426 | .764 | .132 | .370 | 19.5 | 1.9 | .344 |
| 2009 | Bill James | 5.1 % | 13.8 % | 0.39 | .322 | .362 | .684 | .079 | .323 | 40.2 | -11.3 | .312 |
| 2009 | CHONE | 5.6 % | 15.7 % | 0.38 | .332 | .374 | .706 | .088 | .334 | 67.9 | -4.0 | .319 |
| 2009 | Marcel | 7.7 % | 19.4 % | 0.43 | .351 | .423 | .774 | .130 | .343 | 35.4 | 1.7 | .339 |
| 2009 | Oliver | 4.7 % | 15.8 % | 0.31 | .318 | .363 | .681 | .085 | .322 | 65.8 | -16.6 | .304 |
| 2009 | ZiPS | 5.0 % | 13.6 % | 0.38 | .310 | .337 | .647 | .070 | .303 | 58.6 | -14.8 | .298 |
The Tigers also awarded Ryan Perry a spot in the major league bullpen. He will not be closing, at least not right away. Jim Leyland plans to give Fernando Rodney the first opportunity. Rodney has been a solid reliever but has failed when given closer responsibilities. Perry was drafted with the expectation that he could quickly reach the majors and contribute to the bullpen. The closer of the future label has been tossed around a lot. He's definitely going to be a target of mine this weekend if the price is right.
Perry is very young and has not spent much time in the minors. But he has fantastic stuff. You can see his college numbers here. For what is worth here are his MiLB stats thus far:
| Season | Team | K/9 | BB/9 | K/BB | HR/9 | AVG | WHIP | BABIP | LOB% | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | Tigers (R) | 18.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 0.00 | .000 | 0.00 | .000 | 100.0 % | -0.80 |
| 2008 | Tigers (A+) | 9.26 | 5.40 | 1.71 | 0.00 | .313 | 1.89 | .418 | 73.9 % | 3.20 |
| 2009 | CHONE | 4.85 | 5.88 | 0.82 | 1.73 | .290 | 1.81 | .296 | 68.3 % | 6.63 |
Tigers Release Gary Sheffield
Porcello and Perry Earn Roster Spots
Porcello in Starting Rotation
...Go the Spoils
The latest (waiver) Wire column is up at Crucial Sports. This week's article dives into some of the spring training battles and tries to decide if the losers will retain any value. This was written just before the flurry of activity the last few days. More computer problems have limited my posting ability. This time it's my moden or router (maybe both). Anyway, You'll probably see a lot of stuff pop up on the site tonight and tomorrow in my ten minute hits of internet access. So, yes, lots of short to the point posts.
A sample from The (Waiver) Wire.
Seth Smith over the Top Prospects as Rockies Left Fielder
Because of their loaded outfield, the Rockies forced Seth Smith to spend an extra year at Triple-A Colorado Springs. Smith is a fine hitter. He makes excellent contact and draws walks, which bodes well for his batting average. The Rockies will be batting Smith second in the lineup to take advantage of his high on-base percentage. He is more of a doubles hitter than a homerun hitter but 15-20 homers playing in the thin air is very possible. Smith runs well, but has not been a big base stealer.
The Wire Option
Dexter Fowler and Carlos Gonzalez are likely to spend most of the season in the minors. Both players have tremendous tools and project as future major league regulars and could be stars. There is likely no need for them in 2009 with Matt Murton and infielders like Ian Stewart and Jeff Baker likely to appear in the outfield. Murton makes an excellent reserve because of his power potential. Murton definitely intrigued Rockies fans with his excellent spring performance.
Monday, March 30, 2009
Gaston Considering Scott Downs as Closer
Scott Downs is an excellent pitcher who had a great 2008 season. Toronto Blue Jays manager Cito Gaston is concerned that B.J. Ryan may not be ready to close. He would install Downs as the temporary closer until Ryan is ready.
From Yahoo.com
Blue Jays manager Cito Gaston expressed concern about closer B.J. Ryan after he pitched a shaky eighth inning in Toronto’s 3-1 loss to the New York Yankees on Monday. Ryan gave up one run and two hits, including Angel Berroa’s RBI double to left-center. The left-hander, who skipped the World Baseball Classic to work on his mechanics, has a 9.00 ERA this spring. Gaston said he might consider making Scott Downs the closer and putting Ryan “somewhere else for a while and go from there.” He said he wants to see how Ryan does in his final two spring appearances. “I haven’t checked the velocity yet,” Gaston said, “but it looked like it might have been down today. So there are still some concerns about him.”
All Ryan owners should seek out Scott Downs as saves insurance. Even if he doesn't become even the temporary closer, Downs is a quality middle reliever worthy of a roster spot in AL-only and deeper mixed leagues.
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