Sleeper Alert: Gordon Beckham (from the Waiver Wire)

The Waiver (Wire) is a column I will be writing for Crucial Sports this season. It should appear on Mondays. It will feature write-ups of players that are available in a lot of leagues. I think you'll find it very useful. You can click the link above to check out the most recent version.

This week one of the player's featured is Gordon Beckham. His performance this spring is making it difficult for the Chicago White Sox to settle for one of their more mediocre options. This is just a small sample from a much larger article.

Gordon Beckham 2B Chicago White Sox

He belongs in the big leagues. Every scout and general manager that has seen Gordon Beckham play this spring has said that he looks ready. He has just 56 at-bats at single-A but White Sox General Manager Kenny Williams would love him to begin the season as the starting second baseman. Though it seems unlikely, Beckham only has to be a better option that the underwhelming group of Chris Getz, Jayson Nix, and Brent Lillibridge. Beckham came from the University of Georgia, which has a level of play comparable to the lower minors. He projects to hit for average and power with the speed to steal bases. He was a shortstop at the University of Georgia but the switch to second should not be a problem. Beckham hit .411 with 28 homers and 77 RBI in 71 games for the Bulldogs. He also stole 17 bases. In 14 games at Class A for the White Sox he hit .310 with 3 homers and 8 RBI. He then went on to the Arizona Fall League where he hit .394 with 3 homers and 13 RBI in 18 games. As of his first ten appearances this spring, he has hit .364 with two homers, five doubles, and six RBI. He belongs in the big leagues.

Spring Training Things (lotsa links)

Lots of leg room at New Yankee Stadium
Wherever you are sitting this morning, be happy it is not in those seats. Obviously, they are not in their permanent home (we hope!), but with how this new stadium relocation process has been going, anything is possible. After all, the Yankees did build a restaurant that blocks the view for half of the people in the bleachers!

Joe Mauer diagnosed with inflammation
Catcher Joe Mauer has inflammation in his right sacroiliac joint, the Twins said Wednesday, but the team is waiting to consult with other doctors before determining a course of action to treat it.

Dustin McGowan is now out indefinitely
McGowan, who underwent season-ending surgery on his right shoulder in July, complained of discomfort in his arm this past week and visited his surgeon, Dr. Timothy Kremchek, on Sunday in Sarasota, Fla. According to Blue Jays pitching coach Brad Arnsberg, Kremchek didn't find anything wrong besides the expected wear and tear.

Free Emerald Guide to Baseball from SABR
Edited by accomplished and acclaimed baseball historians Gary Gillette and Pete Palmer and published by SABR, The Emerald Guide distills the 2008 season down to 586 fact-filled pages that contain the pitching, fielding, and hitting statistics for every player active in the major and minor leagues in 2008. A bound version is available via print on demand at Lulu.com for $23.94. .Every page in the bound edition is in the PDF.

Posada Sets Joba Chamberlain Straight
"I caught him in the bullpen after that and I told him what I saw was embarrassing," Posada said yesterday before being used as the designated hitter against the Tigers in a 7-4 loss at Joker Marchant Stadium. "I told him to throw the fastball and stop waiting for things to happen. I told him he has to pitch like he can every time no matter what. Whether it's as a starter, reliever or even in the bullpen, people are watching."

The THT Guide to Tiered Drafting
The ranking part of the tier system recommends paying more time and attention to slotting players into tiers, both overall and by position, rather than worrying too much about rankings within tiers (i.e. getting more exact dollar values or rankings). In general, I think this is useful. I would rather have system that put all of the players into their actual, true tiers but then got the ordering within the tiers somewhat wrong, than a system that got many of the exact rankings rights but messed up on some players' tiering. In other words, many small mistakes are usually better than several big ones.

Is Cashman bluffing about starting Cody Ransom?
I e-mailed with a major league GM, who has a third baseman very available, who said he has not been contacted by Brian Cashman. This could mean the Yankees aren't looking around, don't like this particular third baseman or something in between.

J.A. Happ is impressing the Philadelphia Phillies
Happ, who had a lengthy discussion about pitching with Jamie Moyer during Wednesday's game against the Braves at Bright House Field, had his mind turning in the visitors' clubhouse afterward. He allowed a home run to Gape Kapler on a first-pitch fastball in the sixth, and he issued a two-out walk to Morgan Ensberg in the seventh.

Cleveland Indians Camp
Still, I'm not completely sold on Cabrera, and neither, apparently, are the Indians. I think part of the reason they didn't keep Mark DeRosa at second base and shift Jhonny Peralta to third to move Cabrera to short is because they want to see if Cabrera can contribute offensively for the duration of a season first. But there's no reason Cabrera should have to compete with Barfield for a starting spot here in Spring Training.

Sleeper Alert: Joe Mather

The St. Louis Cardinals have sent both David Freese and Brett Wallace (their two best third base prospects) to minor league camp. This leaves Joe Mather, a converted outfielder, as the favorite to begin the season at third base. As I am certain most of you realize that the Cardinals expected third baseman, Troy Glaus, will begin the season on the disabled list and miss at least the first month of the season recovering from shoulder surgery. This will be the winner's chance to shine in the eyes of Tony LaRussa who already seems to have a slight man-crush on Mather.

"But", you might say. It will only be for a month or so and then Glaus will be back and our man will be out of a job. "Well", I would answer, "not exactly."

If Joe Mather impresses Tony LaRussa (and I obviously believe that he will), he is very likely to favor him coming off the bench as an extra infielder and outfielder. This is easily a recipe for finding 350-400 at-bats. I also happen to think Mather is a 30-plus homerun hitter waiting to break out.

Mather was drafted in the third round out of Mountain Pointe high school in Phoenix, Arizona - as a shortstop. He spent way too long in short season leagues and did not develop as quickly as the cards would have liked. But for two years he has been solid (if a little old in AA and AAA). He did not embarass himself in short stents in the major leagues either.

The best news for fantasy owners is that you're likely to get him for just a few bucks in even the deepest leagues. The Cardinals have another guy who began his major league career playing out of position as a temporary replacement for a more established but injury prone player. Damn, I wonder who that was???

Season	Team	AB	PA	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	wOBA
Total	- - -	133	147	7	8	20	18	12	32	1	0	0.241	0.335
2006	Cardinals (A+)	432	482	33	15	63	71	36	89	9	0	0.266	0.359
2007	Cardinals (AA)	234	272	17	18	48	46	29	32	4	0	0.303	0.426
2007	Cardinals (AAA)	249	283	10	12	30	29	22	51	5	0	0.237	0.337
2008	Cardinals (AAA)	211	254	14	17	45	41	32	36	7	2	0.303	0.44
2008	Cardinals	133	147	7	8	20	18	12	32	1	0	0.241	0.335
2009	Bill James	162		9	10	26	24	17	28	3	1	0.253	0.354
2009	CHONE	415		22	19	63	61	41	88	6	2	0.253	0.343
2009	Marcel	245	274	13	10	35	33	24	51	3	1	0.261	0.334
2009	Oliver	360	401	22	19			30	77			0.253	0.343
2009	ZiPS	428		22	18	53	63	34	79	7	1	0.243	0.325

More on Joe Mather:

Sportsnet.com Scouting Report
Future RedBirds Profile
FanGraphs.com Statistics Page
The Baseball Cube Report
WikiPedia Page

Book Reviews by Alex Patton

Anyone that receives BaseballHQ's Free Friday Newsletter has likely seen this already. Alex Patton, one of my favorite fantasy baseball analysts and one of the longest lasting, wrote a piece for the newsletter reviewing a few Fantasy Baseball publications. For those that did not see it you can find it here.

Here are the books he reviewed and a very brief sample of the reviews:

The Bill James Handbook 2009 $23.95

This is the first stat book that appears in print each fall, and everyone who's even remotely into fantasy baseball snaps it up immediately, so there's no reason to dwell on it. I'll just point out some of the very cool things that are new...

Ron Shandler's 2009 Baseball Forecaster $24.95

It's probably fair to say that more people reading this article buy the Forecaster than the Bill James Handbook, so there's no point in me praising it too lavishly. I'll praise it briefly, then offer just a couple of criticisms.

Baseball Prospectus 2009 $21.95

This is the other publication that throws a ton of fancier metrics in with the standard stats in the stat scans. At more than 600 pages, space is no object. Thus, while the Forecaster combines Aviles Triple-A and MLB stats last year into a combined 633 AB, BP gives Aviles two lines of stats. In fewer than 50 words, the Forecaster basically says, Beware. In approximately 180 words, BP says beware.

Graphical Player 2009 $21.95

I bought this annual for the first time this winter, and so far, to tell the truth, have been finding it a tough go.

Fantasy Baseball Magazines

The Fantasy Baseball Guide 2009 $6.99

Gets check marks ahead of all the other ones out there, except, well, it's not all that pretty. Reluctance to say so is based on the fairly well-known fact that my friend Peter Kreutzer (aka Rotoman) is the editor.

Sporting News Fantasy Baseball '09 $7.99

Here I have paid the extra dollar for glossy pages and wider columns, and I love it! Only one problem: 700+ profiles.Are they kidding me? What am I supposed to do when someone says Gil Velazquez in the end game and I go speed-dialing down to the V's and he's not there?

Fanball Fantasy Baseball 2009 $7.99

The big thing here is multiple cheat sheets, each clearly spelling out what the prices are based on. There are three sets of prices: 5x5 AL-only, 5x5 NL-only, and 5x5 mixed. It's hard to figure what the reasoning is for the prices in the mixed leagues. Hanley Ramirez costs more in mixed than in NL-only, which I happen to agree with. But Grady Sizemore costs less in mixed than in AL-only, which I don't agree with and is totally inconsistent.

Fantasy Sports $5.99

I'm looking at the April issue, the one with (at least in New York) David Wright on the cover. Kind of ironic that this is the cheapest of the magazines, since the editor, Greg Ambrosius, is the driving force behind the high-stakes National Fantasy Baseball Championship. Greg has opted to deal with the pricing issue by offering AL-only dollar values by position, NL-only dollar values by position, and mixed-league rankings by position. All for 5x5 leagues.

2009 Major League Baseball Yearbook & Fantasy Guide $9.95

Almost ten bucks?? Yes, I admit it. I can't resist any of them. This one's got a lot of things going for it. 850+ players in the profiles. Hitters alphabetized, pitchers alphabetized. Three-year stat scans, with 2008 also broken into first half, second half. Prices for 5x5 AL-only, NL-only and mixed leagues. That's good. They are the same for all three, though, and that's not right.

Wise Guy Baseball 2009

Not sure what the price is. Gene McCaffrey sent it to me. He doesn't even give contact information, but I'll give you his email address anyway: GenetheM@aol.com. Gene is the original wise guy of the title. John Menna and Ken Magna are his "special guests." Tom Zownir contributes something called The Hitmen. It's basically a crank-press item directed at the CDM contest leagues. But baseball is baseball and good comments are good comments.

Alex Rodriguez Surgery to Cost at Least 10 weeks

I can not be the only one getting the feeling the Yankees and Alex Rodriguez are not on the same page. After a couple days of insisting that A-Rod would attempt rest and rehab before pursuing surgery as an option, it turns out that the initial reports attributed to A-Rod's brother were very accurate. On Monday A-Rod will have arthroscopic hip surgery. Reports are that A-Rod will miss six to nine weeks and will require further surgery after the season.

I do not usually report on individual injuries like this but this is something that every fantasy owner needs to know. A-Rod will not miss just six to nine weeks. After this rehab period A-Rod will probably have a couple weeks of spring training in the minor leagues before re-joining the New York Yankees. As a renowned wuss, Rodriguez can be expected to come back from this very slowly. The problem is not being fixed, it is being patched. He will still have to play through pain. He could very well make the problem worse. Then he will endure the more serious version of the surgery at the end of the season.

Any fantasy owner with a serious chance at winning this season should avoid playing even 50 percent of A-Rod's usual cost. In re-draft leagues I would not bother selecting A-Rod before the 12th round and he is certain to be taken by a fearless (or stupid) owner before that point. I was leaning toward predicting a bad season for A-Rod because of the pressure on him to perform under the close eye of the media while enduring the boos of fans. He has responded poorly to this in the past and it will be increased by a factor of at least ten this season. Add "playing through pain" to the list of obstacles placed in the path of A-Rod having a strong season. This is the recipe for disaster. Even those owners who are choosing to re-build this season should be wary of bidding on A-Rod as next season will also begin slowly as he'll still be rehabing from surgery. If it is enough to keep a gamers like Chase Utley, and Mike Lowell from making opening day, surely Alex Rodriguez can't be expected to do any better.

Auction Keeper League Strategy

I have received this question so often that I feel it is time to write a post about it:

What is the best strategy to follow in Auction Keeper Leagues if...

The line above is usually followed by phrases such as "if my keepers really suck" or "I only have a few keepers but they are really good" and even "if all the good players are kept."

It is impossible to answer those questions well without a ton of information about the league, the owners, the rules, and rosters. I thought it might prove useful to some to share my own approach. By necessity (and enjoyment factors) I vary the plan a bit in every league. I think it is really boring to have multiple teams with duplicate rosters. I will not present this as a infallible plan. But this should give some of you a way to go and others some ideas to implement with your own strategies.

My Philosophy
KRS-ONE isn't the only one who thinks very deeply. After years of flipping and flopping I finally decided a few years ago that rebuilding in fantasy baseball is for losers. We are not running the Pittsburgh Pirates and unless you're in a very unique league there is no team with a New York Yankees advantage. Go for it. Every season. Rather than try to win every other year (I've seen some owners re-build for multiple years --sick) I try to finish first every year. If I fail to win a championship and finish second and third instead of rebuilding for the following year so be it. This doesn't mean I won't make a trade or pick up a player with the future in mind. You can very successfully do both.

Which Players to Keep
First and foremost, if you want to win do not keep players (aside from minor leaguers of course) based on what they might do in two or three years. Every player you protect should be a contributor to your success right now. While it is important to take a few chances on draft day, your protected list should be as full of as many certainties as possible. If you have young players with future value who you cannot stash in reserve or on a farm roster you must trade them for some present day value or future value that you can stash. If you are as obsessed with young players as I am this can be difficult but you get used to it when it results in winning more often.

The most valuable keepers are usually pitchers. It is much easier to replace the under priced hitter you put back into the available player pool than the under priced starter or closer. I like to keep as many under priced pitchers as possible so I can concentrate on hitters come draft day. I often attempt to trade my borderline hitting keepers for cheap pitching. Some years it works and others it does not. This year in my AL-only I tried to trade for a cheap Kevin Slowey and Phil Hughes.

Set Your Goals High
I often hear owners mention they set goals of finishing third in every category. That's sweet. I set a goal of finishing first in every category. Do I make it? Not usually but I've been damned close. Setting my goals high forces me to draft players with upside potential. This has the extra added benefit of building up my keeper list. It also gives me a little more room to screw up and still finish third in every category.

Building a Strong Roster
I use what is often referred to as a Stars & Scrubs strategy. However, the way I do it it is more of a Stars & Future Stars strategy. I plot out my budget well ahead of time and experiment by plugging various names into the different slots. If I have a very strong keeper list I'll take fewer risks but reach for my biggest upside sleepers. When I have a weaker roster I draft more sleepers but try to limit the downside. John Smoltz has a lot of upside if healthy but has very little downside. Russell Branyan has huge upside but also a pretty miserable downside. I usually split my budgets into 70 percent hitting and 30 percent for pitching. I split my roster into the following fairly obvious groups:

Catchers - I allocate enough here to buy one of the better catchers available. My second catcher will be a younger catcher with offensive potential. A lot of teams are willing to live with whatever two bucks will get them at the catcher position. I would prefer my one dollar guys to be corners and outfielders.

Corner Infielders - I like to have at least one stud at this position, if that stud is a inexpensive keeper all the better. In my optimum situation I end up with a stud, a steady vet and a young player with upside. Corners are usually among the most productive players on your team. This is not the place to be stingy.

Middle Infielders - I like to have a strong middle infield but if money is tight this is the spot I cut dollars from. I always seem to find cheap and productive middle infielders in the end game. I'm okay with drafting the good side of platoons and talented youngsters with bench roles here. Speed is especially easy to draft in the middle infield.

Outfielders - I do not feel comfortable unless I have two stud outfielders. When I have those two studs I grow very willing to take chances in my outfield. The outfield is a good place to do some gambling with your roster because mistakes are fairly easy to overcome. You can also find the widest variety of stats in the outfield.

Utility - When my utility does not need to be a qualifying Designated Hitter (as in a lot of AL-only leagues) I try to match positions with the biggest gamble I'm taking with the rest of my roster. This allows me to more easily replace that player if the gamble fails. I very rarely allocate more than a few dollars to this spot on my roster.

Starting Pitchers - I know a lot of fantasy baseball veterans who refuse to draft more than five starting pitchers. This is usually done as precaution against adding too many bad innings (which is difficult to overcome). I refuse to limit myself to a certain number of starters. I like to have at least five and actually prefer to have seven. This helps me be more competitive in the wins category. To pull this off you have to be careful not to bid on interchangeable fifth starters that appear at the end of a lot of major league rotations.

I usually look for pitchers with the following criterion (but there are always exceptions):

• At least half a season of major league experience in the books, but the more the better.
• A career K9 of 7.00 or higher
• A career Ground Ball rate of at least 40 percent
• Pitching in front of a strong defensive team (which does not require the team to actually be good)
  
• A good minor league resume (majors is obviously better but also more expensive)
  

Relief Pitchers - Nine times out of ten I refuse to pay for saves. I usually manage to roster a few future closers while they are still cheap. In keeper leagues you have the advantage of looking beyond just the present season. I drafted Heath Bell two years ago and he's been worth rostering both seasons and now he is a closer. In the last two years in addition to Bell I've drafted Chris Perez, Joey Devine, Joakim Soria, Jonathan Broxton, Chad Qualls, Frank Francisco, Matt Lindstrom, and Grant Balfour. More often than not for less than five dollars each. In almost every case they have been worth owning well before they became closers.
Drafting future closers has usually been about drafting relievers with dominating stuff in bullpens with shakey, old, or injury-prone closers.

How to Stretch Your Budget Further
Never spend your available cash on mediocrities.. This is the kiss of death to fantasy teams. I buy the best talents available within my budgetary limits. I always place talent above roles. I would prefer to spend one dollar on talented Orioles starter David Pauley fighting for a job than on Jarrod Washburn who has a spot gift wrapped for him.

For every full price David Wright or CC Sabathia on my roster I plan to have a one dollar player. This will make it seem as if you have a lot more money to spend on the middle of your roster. If you find more bargains use any extra money on the middle of your roster rather than eliminating the one dollar spots.

Not every player needs to be an immediate everyday hitter like left fielder Ryan Braun is for the Milwaukee Brewers. For example, a player such as shortstop Emmanuel Burriss may not have a full-time role for the San Francisco Giants as the 2009 season begins but he is still likely to make a significant contribution to the fantasy teams that draft him. If he receives just 250 at bats he could steal 25 bases. At the right price a part-time player who contributes is worth rostering.

If you pay full price for a star batter be certain that said player will contribute in every statistical category. If you pay $35 dollars for a player you don't want him hurting your batting average. This is not to say that every player must contribute to every category. I'll roster a .250 hitter or two I just demand a discount.

Some Quick Auction Tips
The following bullet points are taken from my RotoExperts article "Dominating the Auction Draft" which is available for free as part of the RotoExperts Draft Kit if you register (again for free) as a member of the site. The article is a very good compliment to this one.

• Vary your bidding style between frequent small increments and sudden big jumps. This will keep your rivals off balance and unable to anticipate when you are truly interested in a player.
  
• Bid on as many players as possible. This will make it difficult for your rivals to discern your ultimate strategy.
  
• You will hear that you should never nominate players you really want and you will hear that you should never nominate players that you do not want. Ignore these people and mix it up.
  
• Hold off nominating your sleepers until most of the money is off the board. But do it before you run out of money yourself.
  
• Follow your instincts. There is nothing worse than having regrets after a draft.
  
• Draft players with upside potential, these are the players that have huge breakouts.
  
• It is okay to pay for saves, just do not overpay.
  
• Reserve some money and roster spots for the end game, there are always bargains at the end of an auction.
  
• Watch the other owners as much as possible, everyone has a tell.
  
• You are not running the Pittsburgh Pirates, there is no need to waste a whole season in re-building mode – just go for it.
  
• Do not overpay for rookies, especially pitchers, no matter how highly touted.
  
• However, do not avoid rookies altogether, a large percentage of breakout seasons come from rookies.
  
• With everyday players, it can be beneficial to draft a mediocre player if he has guaranteed playing time. The more at-bats you can roster the better you will do in Runs and RBI.
  
• Avoid starting pitchers without quality skills. They collect too many innings and drag down your ERA and WHIP.
  
• The point of all this is to have fun, so do it.

By TwitterButtons.com

Alex Rodriguez to Have Hip Surgery

Alex Rodriguez will miss at least the first month of the season due to hip surgery to remove a cyst that may or may not have been caused by steroid use. His price is crashing through the floor and he can not be a first round pick.




Diamond Draft - The Official Draft Software of Advanced Fantasy Baseball

Follow me on Twitter: @BigJonWilliams