Monday, February 09, 2009

Anti-Dumping Strategies

Few aspects of fantasy baseball have created as much controversy and discussion as anti-dumping rules. Fantasy team owners take advantage of their also-ran status to trade away their expensive studs and expiring contracts for under priced veterans, rookies, and minor leaguers. The owner dumping his present season is hoping to gain an advantage in the next one. The owner benefiting this season is willing to trade cheap keepers to improve his chances of a championship. Message boards from one end of the internet to the other have hosted the debate. Is it more important to protect the integrity of the draft and good team management or to protect the ability to trade freely as in real baseball? Should poorly managed teams benefit from trades with aggressive contenders at the expense of other contenders? Are dump deals a form of collusion or is rebuilding your fantasy franchise via dumping a right worth protecting? Regardless of your answers, most leagues have instituted rules to prevent dump deals or at least limit them.

FLAWED SOLUTIONS

The most commonly adopted rules have been an In-Season Salary Cap and a system for vetoing unpopular deals. These rules, however well intentioned, are flawed. A salary cap prevents an owner from moving a large amount of salary for a smaller amount. This might put a severe drag on dump deals but it also prevents many perfectly fair deals. Why should an owner with the expiring contracts of Chad Billingsley $10 and Jose Reyes $17 be prevented from trading for $40 Carlos Lee and $45 Matt Holliday? Even worse than preventing owners from making fair deals is allowing other owners or even just the league’s commissioner to decide if the trade should be allowed or not. Compare it to the Boston Red Sox given the power to decide if the New York Yankees can complete a deal with the Houston Astros. A trade that seems unfair can often greatly reward the owner making the questionable deal.

Fantasy leagues cannot afford to ignore the owners that despise dumping. If a majority of owners would like to prevent such trades, leagues must take action or their futures become endangered. A Google search will reveal thousands of owners who left their leagues because their rivals took a different stance on dumping. However, it is just as important that a league consider their solutions carefully. An overly aggressive solution can make the league less fun for those owners that like to make frequent trades. The best solutions will encourage all owners to finish as high in the standings as possible. If league members at some point discover that finishing in a money position is impossible, then that owner should also see the value in finishing seventh or even eighth rather than eleventh or twelfth.

BETTER SOLUTIONS

CHANGE THE MINOR LEAGUE DRAFT ORDER

Fortunately, good solutions exist. A very simple solution that works well in conjunction with other solutions is changing the order of minor league and reserve picks. Rather than simply using the reverse of the standings as your draft order, reward the owner that finishes in the highest non-money position with the first pick in your supplemental drafts. Dole out the remaining picks in a similar fashion, with the second pick going to the next highest placed team and so on. The teams in the money would receive picks in reverse of the standings after the non-money teams. The teams finishing out of the money still receive the best minor league/reserve picks, but in a twelve-team league, that has prizes for the first six spots, the seventh place team receives a reward for its superior effort.

EARLIER TRADE DEADLINES

Every league should have a trade deadline in place but often it is late in August. A great change to make moves the deadline for uninhibited trading to a week after the Major League Baseball trade deadline in July. During the month of August, owners can trade with teams within two spots of them in the standings. The late July deadline limits dumping by taking place before most teams’ elimination from contention. The limited trading in August allows teams to make the small adjustments that injuries and MLB transactions make necessary without allowing the drastic trades between the second place team and the last placed team.

THREE-YEAR CHAMPIONSHIP PRIZE

By far the best solution to dumping is instituting a Three-Year Championship. This rule’s intention is to reward the owners that are continually high in the standings over a three-year period. Leagues that charge dues can set aside a small portion each season as a prize. How much to set aside would depend on how much would motivate teams to battle for every homerun or stolen base. At the end of three seasons, simply combine the total stats from each season and rank the teams accordingly. Reward at least the top three teams with a prize and you will have teams that would have dumped previously battling to finish as high as possible every season. This increased competition is the very best drag on dumping.

Implementing these three very simple rules will not only drastically lessen the number of dump trades but also create a more competitive atmosphere around your league without ruining the fun of those owners that like to trade. With owners battling for more prizes, improved draft picks, and more of the pot, participation increases and leagues become tougher, which is more fun for everyone involved.

Follow me on Twitter: @BigJonWilliams

Thursday, February 05, 2009

New Fantasy Baseball Auction Site

I've mentioned Couch Managers a few times in the last couple of months because they hosted some mock drafts in which I participated. Now they are offering Mock Auctions.

Free Fantasy Baseball Auctions Now Open

Join our new and free baseball auction drafts. Go to http://www.CouchManagers.com/baseball/?auction_email

You can create custom auctions. Fast live, slow, public, private, NL-only, AL-only... Everything is free.

Our free fantasy baseball mock drafts are open at http://www.CouchManagers.com/

Follow me on Twitter: @BigJonWilliams

2009 Fantasy Baseball Roundtable

This season I have the privilege of being a member of the Fantasy Baseball Round Table. A collection of accomplished fantasy writers:

Jon Williams: RotoExperts
Tim Dierkes: RotoAuthority
Rudy Gamble: Razzball
Jason Collette: Fanball.com
Brett Greenfield: FantasyPhenoms.com
Adam Ronis: New York Newsday
Derek Carty: The Hardball Times
Patrick Cain: Albany Times Union

This week, the season-long series debuted on Fantasy Pros 911. Our top this week was our greatest disappointments of the 2008 season and our biggest goal of the 2009 season. You can check out the entire article at the link below. It did take me a minute to realize that the article appears about halfway down the page the link sends it to you.

Fantasy Roundtable Debut 2009-Biggest 2008 Disappointment and 2009 Goals

Follow me on Twitter: @BigJonWilliams

Thursday, January 29, 2009

MLB Front Office Manager Review


I have been dying to play this game. MLB Front Office Manager offers the player the chance to control every function that a real MLB GM does (with the exception of dealing with shareholders and politicians as Mike puts it). The guys at River Ave Blues give us a great review of the game and its features. It is much more important for me to hear about the game from a baseball guy rather than a video game guy. The baseball guy doesn't care if the interface could be a little smoother, as long as you get to make trades with Billy Beane.

...The backbone of the game is player development, just like today’s MLB. There’s six freaking levels of minor league affiliates (AAA, AA, Hi-A, Lo-A, short season and rookie) and the scouting network is insanely deep. You’re given a scouting budget and must allocate those funds as you see fit. You can “invest” in a long list of regions, including different parts of the U.S., Latin America, Asia and Australia, and the more money you spend the better the job your scouts do. Scouting Japan is an entirely different undertaking, as it’s more expensive but also more rewarding (because the players are ML ready). The Japanese posting process is in the game, so to land the next Dice-K you have to outbid the other clubs...
I am buying it very soon.

Follow me on Twitter: @BigJonWilliams

ESPN and RotoWorld Park Factors

Recently Aaron Gleeman, a writer and analyst whose work I enjoy and respect, posted an article that ranked the Major League Baseball Park Factors. It was a bit unusual. It does not match ESPN's, at all. I have no idea what either site did to calculate their version and I'm really not interested in doing it myself. I like using and looking at the numbers --not crunching them. My gut says to go with ESPN's since they fit my subjective sense of the rankings. But that isn't very logical. So, what to do...

Also interesting is this SeamHeads.com article that attempts to find truer park factors. It comes with a link to an excel file of more than 50 years of data that I haven't made much sense of yet.

Roto World:

Boston Red Sox – 108
Colorado Rockies – 107
Arizona Diamondbacks – 107
Chicago Cubs – 106
Chicago White Sox – 105

Cincinnati Reds – 104
Philadelphia Phillies – 103
Baltimore Orioles – 103
Tampa Bay Rays – 103
Cleveland Indians – 103
Los Angeles Angels – 103

Detroit Tigers – 102
San Francisco Giants – 102
Texas Rangers – 101
Washington Nationals – 101
Los Angeles Dodgers – 100
Milwaukee Brewers – 100

Houston Astros – 99
Toronto Blue Jays – 99
Florida Marlins – 99
Atlanta Braves – 99
St. Louis Cardinals – 99

Kansas City Royals – 97
Seattle Mariners – 96
Pittsburgh Pirates – 95
Minnesota Twins – 93
Oakland A's – 93
San Diego Padres – 89

And then ESPN's

RkPark NameRunsHRH2B3BBB
1Rangers Ballpark (Arlington, Texas)1.1421.2291.0701.0422.2271.030
2Chase Field (Phoenix, Arizona)1.1351.0681.0721.2421.4060.955
3Coors Field (Denver, Colorado)1.1261.2991.0981.0481.3870.919
4U.S. Cellular Field (Chicago, Illinois)1.1221.3530.9740.9070.5641.087
5Fenway Park (Boston, Massachusetts)1.0770.8501.0561.5891.0001.095
6Comerica Park (Detroit, Michigan)1.0771.1881.0740.9721.1140.877
7Great American (Cincinnati, Ohio)1.0691.2301.0101.0171.0381.013
8Wrigley Field (Chicago, Illinois)1.0681.1631.0320.9750.6580.939
9Turner Field (Atlanta, Georgia)1.0631.0141.0681.0281.2061.109
10Camden Yards (Baltimore, Maryland)1.0511.3591.0440.9890.5660.948
RkPark NameRunsHRH2B3BBB
11AT&T Park (San Francisco, California)1.0450.9921.0141.1321.8751.029
12Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)1.0400.9820.9800.9971.0451.000
13Nationals Park (Washington, D.C.)1.0380.9421.0141.0131.1011.009
14Minute Maid Park (Houston, Texas)1.0361.1551.0121.1020.9081.002
15Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia, Pennsylvania)1.0291.0221.0360.9570.7430.991
16Angel Stadium (Anaheim, California)1.0170.9331.0280.9930.8280.807
17Progressive Field (Cleveland, Ohio)0.9950.8241.0201.0160.6541.187
18Rogers Centre (Toronto, Ontario)0.9590.9260.9811.0861.8641.102
19Tropicana Field (St. Petersburg, Florida)0.9550.8500.9340.8131.2261.043
20Dolphin Stadium (Miami, Florida)0.9540.8440.9460.9261.4811.025
RkPark NameRunsHRH2B3BBB
21Shea Stadium (Flushing, New York)0.9461.0810.9260.9350.5001.088
22Miller Park (Milwaukee, Wisconsin)0.9450.8930.9630.8571.3751.130
23Busch Stadium (St. Louis, Missouri)0.9430.9150.9620.8681.0000.969
24Safeco Field (Seattle, Washington)0.9320.9000.9920.9211.2221.021
25Kauffman Stadium (Kansas City, Missouri)0.9290.7881.0031.0970.8160.980
26McAfee Coliseum (Oakland, California)0.9160.9880.9600.9530.5360.974
27PNC Park (Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania)0.8980.8691.0241.0640.9290.977
28Metrodome (Minneapolis, Minnesota)0.8870.8960.9410.9890.9600.844
29Dodger Stadium (Los Angeles, California)0.8420.8570.8920.8660.4250.891
30Petco Park (San Diego, California)0.7960.7430.8960.7800.9311.024



Follow me on Twitter: @BigJonWilliams

Wednesday, January 28, 2009

Understanding BABIP and Groundball Rates

I'm still processing the information I just absorbed in a Baseball Analysts article entitled: BABIP: Slicing and Dicing Groundball Out Rates. I believe this study could have a huge impact on future player evaluations. Anyone that even attempts to make their own player projections should read this article. This is the type of stuff that transforms you from an average fantasy baseball player into an Advanced Fantasy Baseball Player.

Also read these interesting and related articles:

What’s the best BABIP estimator?

What I Hate About Line Drives

Working the Numbers: On BABIP estimation

BABIP, Projection, and New Statistics


Follow me on Twitter: @BigJonWilliams

Sleeper Alert: Russell Branyan


Before the 2008 season outfielder Ryan Ludwick was known to be a powerful hitter that had probably missed whatever chance he had to be a major league regular. Then the St. Louis Cardinals actually needed him enough to give him an extended series of at-bats. He carried the Cardinals offense the entire season. This year no one questions that Ludwick belongs in the Major Leagues and the Cardinals need to figure out how to work top prospect into the mix with Ludwick, Colby Rasmus, Rick Ankiel, Brian Barton, Chris Duncan, Joe Mather, and Skip Schumaker.

Russell Branyan is a similar player. Great power but too high a strikeout rate to win a regular job at this point in his career. In 2008, Branyan hit 12 homers in 132 at-bats. And he has essentially always performed that way. Last month, the Seattle Mariners signed him to a one-year guaranteed contract approaching a million bucks a year to be their primary first baseman. This was an excellent move. Branyan has a low contact rate but has a career fly ball rate over 50 percent and approaching 60 percent the last few seasons. This translates into homeruns because of his excellent career HR/FB of 21.9 percent. Do the math – (500 at-bats)*(70 percent contact rate)*(50 percent fly ball rate)*(22 percent HR/FB) = 38 homeruns. Branyan's best-case batting average is probably no better than .270 and reality suggests an average closer to .250, but if Ludwick can hit .290, anything can happen.

Eventually, Bryan LaHair will eventually present Branyan with a challenge for the position but almost no one expects that to happen in 2009. Chris Shelton has also been brought in as a platoon partner for Branyan. This is a good development. Less at at-bats against lefties against whom Branyan has hit .204 during his career gives Branyan better odds at a fantasy tolerable batting average.

He should be owned in every AL-only and the deeper ,mixed leagues.

Follow me on Twitter: @BigJonWilliams