2009 Fantasy Baseball Roundtable

This season I have the privilege of being a member of the Fantasy Baseball Round Table. A collection of accomplished fantasy writers:

Jon Williams: RotoExperts
Tim Dierkes: RotoAuthority
Rudy Gamble: Razzball
Jason Collette: Fanball.com
Brett Greenfield: FantasyPhenoms.com
Adam Ronis: New York Newsday
Derek Carty: The Hardball Times
Patrick Cain: Albany Times Union

This week, the season-long series debuted on Fantasy Pros 911. Our top this week was our greatest disappointments of the 2008 season and our biggest goal of the 2009 season. You can check out the entire article at the link below. It did take me a minute to realize that the article appears about halfway down the page the link sends it to you.

Fantasy Roundtable Debut 2009-Biggest 2008 Disappointment and 2009 Goals

Follow me on Twitter: @BigJonWilliams

MLB Front Office Manager Review

I have been dying to play this game. MLB Front Office Manager offers the player the chance to control every function that a real MLB GM does (with the exception of dealing with shareholders and politicians as Mike puts it). The guys at River Ave Blues give us a great review of the game and its features. It is much more important for me to hear about the game from a baseball guy rather than a video game guy. The baseball guy doesn't care if the interface could be a little smoother, as long as you get to make trades with Billy Beane.

...The backbone of the game is player development, just like today’s MLB. There’s six freaking levels of minor league affiliates (AAA, AA, Hi-A, Lo-A, short season and rookie) and the scouting network is insanely deep. You’re given a scouting budget and must allocate those funds as you see fit. You can “invest” in a long list of regions, including different parts of the U.S., Latin America, Asia and Australia, and the more money you spend the better the job your scouts do. Scouting Japan is an entirely different undertaking, as it’s more expensive but also more rewarding (because the players are ML ready). The Japanese posting process is in the game, so to land the next Dice-K you have to outbid the other clubs...

I am buying it very soon.

Follow me on Twitter: @BigJonWilliams

ESPN and RotoWorld Park Factors

Recently Aaron Gleeman, a writer and analyst whose work I enjoy and respect, posted an article that ranked the Major League Baseball Park Factors. It was a bit unusual. It does not match ESPN's, at all. I have no idea what either site did to calculate their version and I'm really not interested in doing it myself. I like using and looking at the numbers --not crunching them. My gut says to go with ESPN's since they fit my subjective sense of the rankings. But that isn't very logical. So, what to do...

Also interesting is this SeamHeads.com article that attempts to find truer park factors. It comes with a link to an excel file of more than 50 years of data that I haven't made much sense of yet.

Roto World:

Boston Red Sox – 108
Colorado Rockies – 107
Arizona Diamondbacks – 107
Chicago Cubs – 106
Chicago White Sox – 105

Cincinnati Reds – 104
Philadelphia Phillies – 103
Baltimore Orioles – 103
Tampa Bay Rays – 103
Cleveland Indians – 103
Los Angeles Angels – 103

Detroit Tigers – 102
San Francisco Giants – 102
Texas Rangers – 101
Washington Nationals – 101
Los Angeles Dodgers – 100
Milwaukee Brewers – 100

Houston Astros – 99
Toronto Blue Jays – 99
Florida Marlins – 99
Atlanta Braves – 99
St. Louis Cardinals – 99

Kansas City Royals – 97
Seattle Mariners – 96
Pittsburgh Pirates – 95
Minnesota Twins – 93
Oakland A's – 93
San Diego Padres – 89

And then ESPN's

Rk	Park Name	Runs	HR	H	2B	3B	BB
1	Rangers Ballpark (Arlington, Texas)	1.142	1.229	1.070	1.042	2.227	1.030
2	Chase Field (Phoenix, Arizona)	1.135	1.068	1.072	1.242	1.406	0.955
3	Coors Field (Denver, Colorado)	1.126	1.299	1.098	1.048	1.387	0.919
4	U.S. Cellular Field (Chicago, Illinois)	1.122	1.353	0.974	0.907	0.564	1.087
5	Fenway Park (Boston, Massachusetts)	1.077	0.850	1.056	1.589	1.000	1.095
6	Comerica Park (Detroit, Michigan)	1.077	1.188	1.074	0.972	1.114	0.877
7	Great American (Cincinnati, Ohio)	1.069	1.230	1.010	1.017	1.038	1.013
8	Wrigley Field (Chicago, Illinois)	1.068	1.163	1.032	0.975	0.658	0.939
9	Turner Field (Atlanta, Georgia)	1.063	1.014	1.068	1.028	1.206	1.109
10	Camden Yards (Baltimore, Maryland)	1.051	1.359	1.044	0.989	0.566	0.948
Rk	Park Name	Runs	HR	H	2B	3B	BB
11	AT&T Park (San Francisco, California)	1.045	0.992	1.014	1.132	1.875	1.029
12	Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)	1.040	0.982	0.980	0.997	1.045	1.000
13	Nationals Park (Washington, D.C.)	1.038	0.942	1.014	1.013	1.101	1.009
14	Minute Maid Park (Houston, Texas)	1.036	1.155	1.012	1.102	0.908	1.002
15	Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia, Pennsylvania)	1.029	1.022	1.036	0.957	0.743	0.991
16	Angel Stadium (Anaheim, California)	1.017	0.933	1.028	0.993	0.828	0.807
17	Progressive Field (Cleveland, Ohio)	0.995	0.824	1.020	1.016	0.654	1.187
18	Rogers Centre (Toronto, Ontario)	0.959	0.926	0.981	1.086	1.864	1.102
19	Tropicana Field (St. Petersburg, Florida)	0.955	0.850	0.934	0.813	1.226	1.043
20	Dolphin Stadium (Miami, Florida)	0.954	0.844	0.946	0.926	1.481	1.025
Rk	Park Name	Runs	HR	H	2B	3B	BB
21	Shea Stadium (Flushing, New York)	0.946	1.081	0.926	0.935	0.500	1.088
22	Miller Park (Milwaukee, Wisconsin)	0.945	0.893	0.963	0.857	1.375	1.130
23	Busch Stadium (St. Louis, Missouri)	0.943	0.915	0.962	0.868	1.000	0.969
24	Safeco Field (Seattle, Washington)	0.932	0.900	0.992	0.921	1.222	1.021
25	Kauffman Stadium (Kansas City, Missouri)	0.929	0.788	1.003	1.097	0.816	0.980
26	McAfee Coliseum (Oakland, California)	0.916	0.988	0.960	0.953	0.536	0.974
27	PNC Park (Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania)	0.898	0.869	1.024	1.064	0.929	0.977
28	Metrodome (Minneapolis, Minnesota)	0.887	0.896	0.941	0.989	0.960	0.844
29	Dodger Stadium (Los Angeles, California)	0.842	0.857	0.892	0.866	0.425	0.891
30	Petco Park (San Diego, California)	0.796	0.743	0.896	0.780	0.931	1.024

Follow me on Twitter: @BigJonWilliams

Understanding BABIP and Groundball Rates

I'm still processing the information I just absorbed in a Baseball Analysts article entitled: BABIP: Slicing and Dicing Groundball Out Rates. I believe this study could have a huge impact on future player evaluations. Anyone that even attempts to make their own player projections should read this article. This is the type of stuff that transforms you from an average fantasy baseball player into an Advanced Fantasy Baseball Player.

Also read these interesting and related articles:

What’s the best BABIP estimator?

What I Hate About Line Drives

Working the Numbers: On BABIP estimation

BABIP, Projection, and New Statistics


Follow me on Twitter: @BigJonWilliams

Sleeper Alert: Russell Branyan

Before the 2008 season outfielder Ryan Ludwick was known to be a powerful hitter that had probably missed whatever chance he had to be a major league regular. Then the St. Louis Cardinals actually needed him enough to give him an extended series of at-bats. He carried the Cardinals offense the entire season. This year no one questions that Ludwick belongs in the Major Leagues and the Cardinals need to figure out how to work top prospect into the mix with Ludwick, Colby Rasmus, Rick Ankiel, Brian Barton, Chris Duncan, Joe Mather, and Skip Schumaker.

Russell Branyan is a similar player. Great power but too high a strikeout rate to win a regular job at this point in his career. In 2008, Branyan hit 12 homers in 132 at-bats. And he has essentially always performed that way. Last month, the Seattle Mariners signed him to a one-year guaranteed contract approaching a million bucks a year to be their primary first baseman. This was an excellent move. Branyan has a low contact rate but has a career fly ball rate over 50 percent and approaching 60 percent the last few seasons. This translates into homeruns because of his excellent career HR/FB of 21.9 percent. Do the math – (500 at-bats)*(70 percent contact rate)*(50 percent fly ball rate)*(22 percent HR/FB) = 38 homeruns. Branyan's best-case batting average is probably no better than .270 and reality suggests an average closer to .250, but if Ludwick can hit .290, anything can happen.

Eventually, Bryan LaHair will eventually present Branyan with a challenge for the position but almost no one expects that to happen in 2009. Chris Shelton has also been brought in as a platoon partner for Branyan. This is a good development. Less at at-bats against lefties against whom Branyan has hit .204 during his career gives Branyan better odds at a fantasy tolerable batting average.

He should be owned in every AL-only and the deeper ,mixed leagues.

Follow me on Twitter: @BigJonWilliams

My mind on my money and the Yankees on my mind

It feels like I haven't slept in weeks. That may be because I rarely seem to sleep more than a couple of hours at a time. I've been sick (I just read that honey is better than cough syrup - not surprising) and for the past week added a aching back to my problems but I'm sure you don't give a damn about that.




The big news around baseball right now seems to be Joe Torre's new book, "The Yankee Years" which was actually written by Sports Illustrated's Tom Verducci. The book supposedly exposes lots of juicy gossip and jealousies. But the major story points picked up by the New York Post were based around Torre supposedly trashing Alex Rodriguez and Brian Cashman. There are no direct quotes of Torre doing this in the book according to recent articles. Bronx Banter picks up most of the links if you want to follow the story.

My Twitter Buddy and RotoExperts boss, RotoTommy is asking for the biggest fantasy baseball disappointment predictions. I'm going with Brad Lidge who has had some serious bouts with disaster the last few years.

If you are like me and can't afford to subscribe to those big prospect sites you are in luck. Keith Law has been prospect crazy lately and has put together all sorts of great lists. He has a ranking of the Top 10 Farm Systems. The Rangers come out on top and I'm not surprised. If you are an insider you can see how he ranks all of the teams. You would think that with the amount of advertising on ESPN.com that they would make the content free. Law also has prospect rankings by teams this week.

It could be that the guys at Chop-N-Change (MVN's Braves Blog) are onto something with their placement of Brian Cashman in the second tier of General Managers in their article : Best GMs in baseball? If Cashman were truly taking advantage of all his resources the Yankees would have one of the top ten farm systems and Keith Law would have given us a complete top ten list. Fortunately it seems to be prospect season. Baseball-Intellect has posted their top 15 Yankees Prospects - albeit in two parts. Part One: 6-15, and Part Two: 1-5.

I love that they place my favorite Yankees prospect at number two on their list, which has not happened on any other list that I've seen. River Ave Blues profiles that same prospect. His name is Dellin Betances and he dominated with a 10.59 K9 in the second half of last season. Though Rich Lederer of Baseball Analysts has an article suggesting that K per 100 pitches may be a far more relevant statistic.

Is this too much Yankees talk? If you're a Yankees hater you may enjoy this article by Bert Blyleven that suggests the Yankees are an incomplete team despite their heavy spending this off-season.

Alan Horne who turned himself into a prospect a couple of years ago is looking to make a comeback from a tear in his rotator cuff.

“The tear was causing my shoulder to bind up really bad, so he cleaned it up so it would work a little better,” he said. “It feels good so far.”

Horne couldn’t throw for three months following the surgery, but since resuming his workouts in early December, he has had no complaints.

“I feel great so far. I’ve been real pleased with how the rehab’s gone,” he said. “I feel no pain so far. I feel like I’ve got the problem fixed and I can continue to move forward toward my ultimate goal, which is pitching in the big leagues.”

It was a struggle for Horne last season, starting off by losing three of five decisions in the International League, then dropping his only decision in three starts in Tampa.

For the year, Horne was 2-4 with an 8.77 ERA, a far cry from his 2007 success.

In retrospect, Horne said it’s obvious why the struggles were so great.

“(The injury) was a big struggle for me,” he said. “It wasn’t a huge pain, it was just pretty uncomfortable. My arm wasn’t working like it was supposed to work and it just wasn’t allowing me to extend a long way.

“It took more effort to be able to throw. I was having to work a lot harder to do things I normally do without a problem. Towards the end of the season, my stuff started deteriorating.”

Speaking of New York general managers. Steve Phillips is joining Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN this coming season. I know its an unpopular feeling among sabermetrically inclined baseball fans, but I actually like listening to Jim Miller and Joe Morgan. Yes, I cringe sometimes but they are fairly entertaining if you can get around that. Having more studio time from Peter Gammons is good for me too.

Non-Fantasy, Non-Baseball Links: (just cuz I can)

There is a new version of Ad-Aware available. A really cool free option for fighting spyware.

Do you love web comics? I do and one of my favorite artists has a new one out. The Flobots.

My friend's father trashes Obama. Peter David opines.

Joe Posnanski picks the most Iconic songs of the Rock 'n Roll Era. And gets a lot of it wrong!


Follow me on Twitter: @BigJonWilliams

More Hot Stove Action

I neglected to post here about my most recent Hot Stove Junkie. It was definitely an abbreviated version since the Hot Stove Action has been at a minimum the last few weeks. I know the substantive posts have been a little slow coming here the last two weeks. I was nearly killed by a monster virus while feverishly (get it?) on lots of stuff for the RotoExperts Draft Kit. This week I have more deadlines, more work and an aching back. Still, I roll on...

But here's the latest Hot Stove Junkie.

Follow me on Twitter: @BigJonWilliams