New York Mets Online: Off-Season Roundtable

Brian Joura of New York Mets Online invited me to participate in a round table discussion of the New York Mets off-season thus far and where they should go from here. I thought I was an interesting choice considering my years as a New York Yankees blogger. Check out this excerpt.

Mets Online Roundtable: The Off-Season

...There are some that would suggest the Mets sign an outfielder but they can afford to wait. The Mets should find out if Dan Murphy could be an everyday starter for them. The Mets have also refused to part with outfield prospect Fernando Martinez who would be part of the Mets 2010 outfield if all goes well. Signing Manny Ramirez or Adam Dunn would not only be expensive but it would block the Mets’ younger players. If Ramirez and Dunn become bargains that the Mets can’t resist they should go for Dunn rather than Ramirez. Dunn at the very least can be moved to first base in 2010 when Carlos Delgado becomes a free agent...

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Top Fantasy Baseball Outfielders

I usually avoid the top ten lists that you see on most fantasy sites. This is primarily because I find there is very little value in a list of players without scouting reports or evaluations of some kind that let the reader know why "Player A" is listed ahead of "Player B". This is why I have zero problem with suggesting you read this very interesting comparison between the Top 100 Outfielder lists of The Sporting News and Fanball.com fantasy baseball magazines and the list of my friend Paul Sporer of Baseball By Paul.
A small sample:

The Milledge difference seems to be a stark difference of opinion. My love for Milledge in 2009 could start reaching Jason Collette-Nelson Cruz levels by the spring. Meanwhile, fanball is less than impressed with the budding outfielder. The accompanying capsule for Milledge said they were put off by his streakiness which isn’t a totally unfair critique. It’s easier for me to overlook the month-to-month swings since I play roto leagues almost exclusively. If he avoids the slow start he had in 2008 and doesn’t miss an entire as he did last July, I can’t see how he doesn’t show growth in 2009.

The Tattooed Titan, Josh Hamilton, fell pretty deep in their top 20. I remember thinking I might have been overrating him at six and it seems that the fanball guys would seem to say I did in fact. However, if they look at my rating of sixth among outfielders and think I was generous compared to their 18 slotting, I wonder what they thought of Yahoo!’s Brandon Funston rating him ninth OVERALL on his initial Big Board of 2009.

Now just for the hell of it, my top 15 outfielders. I won't allow you to hold me to it in drafts because it changes frequently but this is what it looks like right now.

1. Grady Sizemore - You can't go too wrong starting with 40/40

2. Ryan Braun - Everyone's favorite slugger steals a few bases too

3. BJ Upton - A 30/30 season would not shock me, in fact I expect one

4. Matt Kemp - This is the guy I want in every draft this season

5. Josh Hamilton - Others may doubt him, but I have faith he'll deserve this ranking

6. Matt Holliday - The change of teams won't be a problem

6. Carl Crawford - One injury-marred season after a long string of great ones

8. Carlos Beltran - Always better than expected

9. Carlos Lee - A stud slugger, in a great ballpark

10. Jason Bay - Fenway and the Red Sox lineup are big positives

11. Nick Markakis - Only a dozen stolen bases keep him from the top five

12. Curtis Granderson - He could very well be number one in 2010

13. Shane Victorino - He could have a 20/40 season this year

14. Ichiro Suzuki - Another boring .330, 50 stolen base season

15. Manny Ramirez - The decline is coming but he isn't done yet

Follow me on Twitter: @BigJonWilliams

RotoExperts.com Writers Take Top Two Spots Among Industry Experts Competitors

I've been in bed sick the last few days. I'm back to work now andplan to make up the posts I missed. But first a little bragging on my boys at rotoexperts.com:

RotoExperts LLC and RotoExperts.com today annouced that Jon Phillips and Paul Bourdett, Senior Writers for RotoExperts.com, finished in first and second place in the 2008 RATE THE EXPERTS competition.

RATE THE EXPERTS is an annual contest held by Jeff Thitoff, fantasy sports columnist and blogger for the Columbus Dispatch. Each week, representatives from some of the most popular fantasy advice sites rated who they thought the top five fantasy performers would be in each position: QB, RB, WR, TE, DEF, & K. They also answered six multiple choice questions each week, each of which required selection of who would perform best among a predetermined list of three players.

"We've always known that our football team is one of the best in the industry," said Tommy P. Landry, Executive Editor of RotoExperts.com. "With the quality competition they faced in the RATE THE EXPERTS contest, our team really stepped up to the plate and excelled. This is just another proof point that, if you want to win your fantasy league, RotoExperts is one of the best destinations for fantasy sports advice on the web."

Also placing among the top ten in the final standings were RotoExperts Staff Writers Matt Wirkiowski, Mike Gilbert, and Mark Strausberg. Listen to the end of year podcast Interview of Jon Phillips at http://tinyurl.com/8zs8rf.

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Ranking the Red Sox Rotation

The Red Sox have gone buy crazy. It seems they want every discounted, injury prone player on the market. In the last two weeks they've added outfielder Rocco Baldelli, outfielder/first baseman Mark Kotsay, starters Brad Penny and John Smoltz, and now former Dodgers closer, Takashi Saito.

The Red Sox rotation now has the following candidates: (the names all link to their fangraph pages)

Josh Beckett
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Jon Lester
Tim Wakefield
Justin Masterson
Junichi Tazawa
Brad Penny
John Smoltz
Clay Buchholz

What does this say about the Red Sox thinking? Are they just pouncing on deals? Or are they worried about the health and effectiveness of their top four starters? It is very tough to tell right now. We can probably assume that with the additions, Jonathan Masterson will be in the bullpen. Junichi Tazawa is likely to start in double A Portland.

• Josh Beckett has been marketed as their ace (I happen to think that both Dice-K and Lester will be better pitchers this season) so he is definitely a lock. Dice-K, despite the walks last season is a lock for the number two spot. Jon Lester flashed top of the rotation form last season and I expect him to be number three. But that is about as far as you can guarantee the spots.
• Tim Wakefield prefers starting but has always been willing to fill whatever role the team needs him to fill. He could easily fit in as a long reliever. His knuckleball probably isn't a good candidate for the higher leverage innings. But because of his longevity he will likely at least begin the season as the number four starter.
• Brad Penny seems to be healthy right now, though he was injured when the 2008 season came to a close. When healthy Penny can bea very effective pitcher but has also been inconsistent throughout his career. He is probably the favorite to start as the number five starter but he has quite a bit of quality competition.
• Clay Buchholz was disappointing in 2008 but has the talent to be a frontline starter on playoff team. He had some control problems that he hadn't encountered previously. He also appeared to be very unlucky with BABIP of .366 (average is between .290 and .310 most seasons). So with a bit of better luck and regaining his previous control combined with a groundball rate of almost 48 percent and a MLB career 8.57 K/9 we can expect much better things.
• John Smoltz if healthy could be the number one starter, even on a team with a rotation this loaded. But if his health were a certainty he would probably still be a Brave (at the very least he would have commanded a much larger guaranteed contract). Most reports have him out until at least May but John Smoltz himself has disputed this. He has claimed that he can be ready in April. I have a hard time doubting him because the man has bounced back from more seriously injuries and quickly at that. If he is ready in April he is clearly going to bump someone from the rotation. The Red Sox obviously believe it as well, judging by the significant guarantee they gave a 41-year old pitcher coming off shoulder problems. Smoltz could be a nice sleeper option since he is likely to come with a large health-related discount.

The Red Sox bullpen is growing as crowded as their rotation and yet they refuse to part with pitching prospect, Clay Buchholz, in a deal for the young catcher they want so badly. If everyone is healthy I see the Red Sox rotation forming like this:

Josh Beckett
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Jon Lester
John Smoltz
Brad Penny

with Buchholz in the minors, and Masterson and Wakefield in the bullpen.

Couch Managers Slow Mock Draft

I just finished a slow mock draft that I did with a bunch of the guys from RotoJunkie. We used a relatively new service called Couch Managers. The draft interface works well enough but seemed a little glitchy at times. I also thought the page was a little too colorful and busy (says the guys with the black&white blog). Couch Managers will not be replacing Mock Draft Central any time soon but it is completely useable and if you do a lot of mock drafts it might be a nice change of scenery.

You can check out the complete results here. The rotojunkie thread linked to above is the discussion the drafters are having about their own drafts and the Couch Managers website.

Here is my team:

C Ryan Doumit (6) - I like Doumit here and I like to have at least one strong catcher.
C Benji Molina (11) - Computer pick -eh, I'm not a big fan but I have no huge problem with it.

1B Justin Morneau (3) - A top first baseman who is an annual MVP candidate.
3B Kevin Kouzmanoff (13) - A fine pick but not a favorite of mine.
CR Adrian Beltre (14) - I love having him in a contract year.

2B Brian Roberts (4) - I love Roberts, he is a consistent stolen base stud.
SS JJ Hardy (7) - I like Hardy and his power a lot, streaks and all.
MI Jason Bartlett (20) - I like he'll improve his batting average and steal more bases in 2009.

OF Josh Hamilton (1) - Love everything about him.
OF BJ Upton (2) - A 30/50 season would not surprise me at all.
OF Pat Burrell (12) - I wanted a power boost and the bat should provide.
OF Justin Upton (17) - I had too many established vets and wanted to see some upside.
OF Carlos Gomez (19) - Grabbing those steals and hoping he continues to improve.

Utl Mike Cameron (21) - A 20/20 guy in the 21st round.

P Carlos Zambrano (8) computer pick - I wouldn't have but if he's healthy he should be fine.
P John Lackey (9) computer pick - but I like it. One of my favorites.
P AJ Burnett (10) computer pick - eh I think the thrill of a pennant might provide a heart injection.
P Scott Baker (15) - He'll take another step up this season.
P Brandon Morrow (16) - He'll either become a solid starter or the Mariner's closer.
P Andrew Miller (23) - I love his upside, he was unlucky in 2008.

RP JJ Putz (22) - My considerable gut tells me K-Rod gets injured.
RP Joey Devine (18) - One of the better relievers in MLB last season and now getting saves.
RP Jonathan Papelbon (5) - A top three closer on a great team.

Sleeper Alert: Brett Gardner

Everyone loves to hate the New York Yankees. Everyone always assumes that having more money than anyone else by a significant margin makes it easy to be better than the other teams. To a certain degree, this is true. However, having more money than the other teams also comes with a significant set of disadvantages.


One disadvantage is you tend to have extremely expensive star players. This makes changing the direction of the team sort of like putting the pin back in the grenade – it would have been better not to have pulled the pin in the first place but now you had better throw that thing as far as you can. So, when GM Brian Cashman decides he want to have a stronger farm system, better pitching and a stronger defense it takes quite a bit of doing. Unlike the Tampa Bay Rays who can just dump their shortstop and trade for a rookie defensive specialist, the Yankees cannot just release Derek Jeter or send Bobby Abreu packing. Cashman has to wait out contracts and bide his time.


And take advantage of opportunities.


The 2009 season will provide the Yankees with an opportunity to do something that Brian Cashman has publically confessed he wants to do. Improve the defense (especially up the middle) and get younger. Installing Brett Gardner in center field accomplishes both of those goals. The Yankees outfield as described here is presently pretty crowded.


Here are the current Yankees outfielders and their defensive rating by UZR:


Johnny Damon LF (19.9 ) CF ( -3.0 )
Xavier Nady LF (-1.2) CF ( -41.0) RF (0.5)
Nick Swisher LF ( 6.3 ) CF ( -10.3 ) RF ( 14.2 )
Melky Cabrera CF (-11.3)
Brett Gardner LF (24.3) CF (40.2)
Hideki Matsui LF (-15.2 )


Since Matsui is likely the DH in any case, we will place him there and take him out of this part of the discussion. Johnny Damon is clearly the best candidate for left field when we combine his offense and defense and his likely role as the Yankees leadoff hitter. Melky Cabrera's track record of lousy offense should remove him from the conversation as well. His defense just is not good enough to justify an everyday role while contributing zero to the offense. Xavier Nady's defense in center is much worse than Gardner's and Swisher's so he is not a candidate to play center field. Brett Gardner's offensive potential and superior defense makes him clearly the best possible center fielder for the Yankees.

What is that offensive potential?


In the minor leagues, he averaged a 13.6 walk percentage (good), and a 20.36 strikeout percentage (also pretty good). This means he puts the ball in play about 80 percent of the time. Thanks to his very good speed on the bases, he is able to collect many infield hits. He has averaged a .360 minor league BABIP. Taken together, this indicates that Gardner should be able to hit for a solid average and maintain a strong on-base percentage. He has zero homerun power; any homeruns he hits should be considered flukes. His fantasy value will lay in his batting average and stolen bases. In 381 minor league games, he attempted 182 stolen bases at a success rate of 83 percent. I fully expect Gardner to be the Yankees' leadoff hitter in 2010 but in 2009 he is likely to bat ninth. Fortunately, in the Yankees lineup there isn't really a bad place to hit. He should still score plenty of runs. He will not drive in many runs but in fantasy baseball, you rarely get everything you need from one player. Gardner should be a slightly better version of Juan Pierre. Better because of his superior on-base skills, not because he will steal more bases.


Brett Gardner will never be a first round pick in a typical fantasy draft but he can be quite useful. He should be drafted in every AL-only league and in the deeper mixed leagues. Even shallower mixed leagues should have Gardner on their follow list.

Advanced Fantasy Baseball's Greatest Hits

Yesterday Knox over at Crooked Pitch dot com posted his Top 10 Must Follow List for Fantasy Baseball. Guess who was on it? I was sort of surprised to say the least. Twitter is a great way to get quick hits of news and links to articles you might be interested in reading. I'm hoping that the attention will result in more readers of this blog. I thought now be a good time to share some of Advanced Fantasy Baseball's Greatest Hits. I selected a variety of the types of posts I write.

Fantsy Baseball Strategies That Don't Work

Favorite Statistical Sources

Expert Mock Drafts

Sleeper Alerts

The Importance of Defense in a Fantasy Baseball Context

MLB's Non-Tendered Free Agents

Fantasy Baseball Software

Advanced Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings

The Ultimate Fantasy Baseball Gift List

How the Teixeira Deal Changes the Yankees Outfield

The Fantasy Sports Writers Association Awards

Fantasy Baseball Books, Annuals, and Magazines

You can follow me on Twitter too.