The Hot Stove Holiday Hits

The latest edition of the Hot Stove Junkie is available at RotoExperts.com, as always the first hit is free...

The Chicago Cubs acquired minor league right-handers Jeff Stevens and Chris Archer and minor league lefty John Gaub from the Cleveland Indians for 2B/3B Mark DeRosa. This was just a few hours after signing 2B Aaron Miles to a two-year contract.
The Indians traded a trio of prospects that were not on even the most optimistic prospect lists for a top second baseman. If the world made sense, they would install Mark DeRosa as their second baseman and slide mediocre at best shortstop, Jhonny Peralta to third base, and move Asdrubal Cabrera (a minor league defensive whiz) to shortstop. It would make Cabrera’s questionable bat fit in the lineup better. However, most of all it would improve the infield defense that right-handed starter Fausto Carmona depends on for his success. Unfortunately, the Indians swear that DeRosa is now a third baseman.
DeRosa (in case you have been asleep) is a very good hitter. In 2008, he hit .285/.376/.481 with 21 homers. His walk and strikeout rates both increased slightly. I take this as a sign that he was exercising greater patience and looking for pitches he could really drive. This is an awesome pickup for the Indians (even if they do screw up and move him to third) and fantasy owners in American League only leagues get a new slugger in the infield.

2009 Fantasy Baseball Books and Annuals

For fantasy baseball owners it is officially baseball season. Fantasy Baseball Junkies are searching every nook and cranny of the internet searching for the best information, the best software (you're choosing Diamond Draft, right?), the best magazines, and of course the best books. Some of these also appeared in the Ultimate Fantasy Baseball Gift List.

I'm always trying to be helpful so I put together this list of my favorite fantasy baseball books. They aren't all new but they are all useful and good reading.






The Bill James Handbook is the original guide to projecting and analyzing player performance. Every season i learn something new from this book. It could be that Jason Giambi, despite his bulk, is actually a great base runner. Or it could be that Bobby Abreu despite his speed is a lousy outfielder. If nothing else James deserves your support for helping make the statistical study of baseball what it is today.

As Bill James is to actual baseball, Ron Shandler and his Baseball Forecaster is to fantasy baseball. No one has helped fantasy leaguers win more than Shandler and the guys from Baseball HQ. From his unique game strategies such as the LIMA Plan and Portfolio 3, to his DOM/DIS listings, and scarily accurate player analysis. I feel naked without it (you don't want to see that).

The guys that write the annual Baseball Prospectus aren't fantasy guys but they all acknowledge that without the fantasy baseball crowd they wouldn't be making any money. I've preached (or raved?) about putting player moves into the proper context as the key to winning at fantasy baseball. Well this is the book that does it better than any other. Not only do you get extensive write ups on each teams and the smart and dumb things that they do, but you also get write-ups on every player that matters. If that isn't enough, its a true page turner. This is like a 1000-page fantasy baseball magazine. The writers are funny and engaging ina way that keeps you from putting it down so you can get to work on time in the morning. Perhaps, I've said too much...

Fantasy Land by Sam Walker is a great book. It doesn't give you any real fantasy baseball information, at least not the type that you bring with you on draft day. But it does express some of what we all love about this game. That competitive drive to win. The decision making process during the season. It also describes a dream for all fantasy leaguers - playing in the ultimate fantasy league, Tout Wars.

How to Value Players for Rotisserie Baseball is the original manual to creating your own fantasy baseball auction values. Art McGee applies concepts from economics, finance, and statistics to develop a pricing method that far surpasses any other published. His method is highly sophisticated, yet McGee explains it in terms that any fantasy baseball owner can understand and apply.



Baseball America is the definitive source of minor league and prospect information for almost the entire baseball industry. They lean heavily to the scouting side of things which is why you also need more numbers oriented evaluations like those you get from...

The Minor League Baseball Analyst is a companion book to Baseball HQ's Forecaster. Deric McKamey does for minor leaguers what Ron Shandler does for the major leaguers. I love having a few different prospect manuals so I can compare and contrast the scouting reports with the statistical profiles.

The 2009 John Sickels Baseball Prospect Book
John Sickels is one of the best minor league analysts in the business. His book includes extensive lists on all of the prospects with a letter grade to help you easily understand their level of talent.



Last but by no means least is Peter Golenbock's How to Win at Rotisserie Baseball. I love this book. I re-read it often. The advice isn't profound and it won't actually help you win but it might help you love rotisserie baseball just a little bit more (as if you needed the help). Plus, since it's out of print you can buy it via Amazon.com for about 64 cents. You can't beat that with a stick.

The Waiver Wire

The Waiver Wire is a blog written by one of my RotoJunkie brothers. The site is very different from a lot of fantasy baseball blogs that you may have experienced. Most of the articles are just short hits on players and different game strategies. It is a blast to read.

One of my readers commented on my post on Mike Pelfrey that he's a similar pitcher to Armando Galarraga. I don't completely agree that they'll put up similar stats, but they are probably about equally good pitchers. Galarraga has a slightly better K/BB ratio (6.5 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9) and is doing it in the tougher league. Pelfrey makes up for that by doing a better job of keeping the ball on the ground - Galarraga had a 43.5% groundball rate last season...not bad, but significantly worse than Pelfrey.

The Waiver Wire is dedicated to helping you manage your team throughout the season with strategy advice and player profiles, with a focus on leagues with daily transactions.

The Bradley/Burrell Deals and other Fantasy Baseball Links

Some links I think you'll enjoy.

Battle Of The Fantasy Gods Draft Tonight
I participated in this expert league a couple of years ago. I came in second or third I believe. The wierd thing about expert leagues is that everyone wants to look good so they are annoying inactive sometimes. Trades are non-existent. This league is a little bit different in that the names and reps are less hyped so they have less to lose by going out on limbs. It makes what happens in the league a lot more relevant to your leagues.

• Mike Kuchera - The Fantasy Man
• Geoff Stein - Mock Draft Central
• Scott White - CBS Sports
• Brad Stewart - MLB Front Office
• Tim McLeod - Roto Rob
• Troy Patterson - Fantasy Pros 911
• Todd Farino - Fantasy Baseball Search
• Brian Fitzsimmons - Sports Buff
• Jeff Boggis - Fantasy Sports Empires
• Mojo Moshovetis - Crucial Sports
• Chris McDonnell - FantasyBaseball.com

ESPN.com
The link does not connect to a specific article. I just think that the revamping of ESPN's website is something that will interest every sports fan. I do like the new design so far. The pages definitely seem to build faster. There are also links to all the columnists on the main page. It's worth checking out.

Pat Burrell signs with the Tampa Bay Rays
I love this move for the Rays and I have yet to run into anyone who thinks otherwise. This has been a great offseason for the AL Champs. They signed a new set-up man in Joe Nelson. They traded for a power hitting right-fielder, Matt Joyce. And now they've signed a full time designated hitter who should be as good a DH as anyone else in the AL has. The article linked above is Rob Neyer's take on things.

What a fantastic move. As you've no doubt read, this winter there's a buyer's market for sluggardly sluggers like Burrell and Giambi. Burrell earned roughly $28 million with the Phillies over the past two seasons. That was too much. Because of his obvious limitations -- he's not only a left fielder, but a poor one -- he was really worth something like $20 million over those two seasons. He's in his early 30s now, and moving to the better league's best division, so we may assume he'll be worth less than $20 million over the next two seasons.

Milton Bradley Agrees To Deal With Cubs
I like this deal for the Cubs and Bradley. I have heard a few grumbles about it based on his durability and defense but I think those are a bit over blown. I actually was surprised the Texas Rangers didn't find a way to keep him around.

In an effort to free up some salary for Bradley, the Cubs are expected on Tuesday to finalize a deal to send Jason Marquis to the Colorado Rockies in exchange for reliever Luis Vizcaino, MLB.com reported Monday.

Adding Bradley was one of the top priorities this offseason for the Cubs, who got swept out of the playoffs for the second straight year after a lineup loaded with right-handers struggled against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Last Player Picked
I discovered a great new site today (mostly because they linked to yesterday's article on Keepers). This site has an excellent analysis based blog and an awesome Price Guide feature that uses various sets of projections and the criteria you enter to produce fantasy baseball dollar values for your league. This is a great device, check it out.

You may have noticed that the CHONE projections have recently been added as an option on the Price Guide. These are stat projections that have done quite well in the past couple years at predicting the actual stats. One especially interesting aspect are the projections for players with little MLB experience (or none at all).

Using the CHONE projections in the Price Guide, I generated dollar values for a standard mixed league that starts 14 hitters per team. Scanning through the results, I found several young hitters who have not yet seen significant time in the majors and whom CHONE projects as draftable players.

Top 100 Outfielders Part II
Paul of Baseball by Paul is a great analyst. In this piece he shares outfielders #11-50. You could quibble with the rankings but the analysis is spot on as usual. I especially like his projections for Elijah Dukes, Delmon Young, Hunter Pence, and Matt Holliday.

46. Justin Upton, 21, Arizona Diamondbacks – It was an inconsistent season for the heralded youngster as he opened up white hot (five HR, .963 OPS in April) only to cool considerably (four HR, .177 AVG in May/June) and then suffer an injury that relegated him to just nine games across July and August. On the bright side, he finished strong with a .919 OPS in September that included four home runs as well. Strikeouts were a huge problem, but he also displayed a very strong eye even when he was at his lowest point of the season (35 walks in 50 games spanning May/June). As a whole, the 2008 season wasn’t too bad for Upton when you consider his quick ascent to the majors and the highly useful skills he displayed prominently (power and batting eye). The lacking component that may’ve been falsely attributed to Upton in the first place was the speed. He managed just one stolen base while being caught four times. The 15 and 19 stolen bases during his two minor league season of 2006 & 2007 likely earned him the perceived ability but he was stealing at rates of 68% and 63%, respectively. This guy is a bona fide, but it remains to be seen if he is the power-speed combo that his brother, B.J. Upton, is for Tampa Bay. Buy into a couple more steps forward in 2009.

Your #1 Sleeper
Tim Dierkes of Roto Authority is imploring his giant audience to share their favorite sleepers. This should be interesting. As we've learned from Who Wants to be a Millionaire? the larger the consensus the more likely it is to be correct.

I'll kick it off with my own #1 sleeper: Nelson Cruz of the Rangers. Cruz had a ridiculous 2008. He hit .342/.429/.695 in 103 Triple A games, nailing 37 HR and swiping 24 bags. He did just as well in 115 ABs for the big club - .330/.421/.609 with 7 HR and 3 SBs.

Cruz has the potential to jack 30 HR for the Rangers in 2009. He attempted a steal 25% of the time he was on first base in the minors, so the potential for double digit swipes looks strong too. He'll join current Texas mashers Chris Davis and Josh Hamilton.

Slow Mock Draft
I'm in the middle of my own slow mock draft which you'll be hearing about as soon as it completes. Winabango of Fantasy Gameday share the results of his slow mock...

Once again, it my turn to pick for the slow mock draft hosted by Fantasy Baseball Trade Market. To be completely honest, writing about the draft has really opened my eyes to its inter-workings. To this point I have selected a fairly conservative offensive base, which I like. With my last pick I was also able to adjust my strategy due to the large amount of top tier pitchers still available. As I stated in my last post regarding the draft, flexibility is the best strategy in any draft.

Ten Questions to Consider in Keeper Leagues

Every season owners in keeper leagues spend weeks if not much longer agonizing over which players on their rosters should be kept. Should they keep just the huge bargains or is a $45 Alex Rodriguez or $31 CC Sabathia too good to pass up? How do you decide? Every league is going to be different. In some leagues a $31 Sabathia is a huge bargain, in others it is the height of stupidity. Today I give you ten criterion to consider as you struggle through these decisions.

Ten Questions to Consider in Keeper Leagues

(In no particular order)

1. Was it a fluke? A fluke could be a great season or a lousy one. Look at the player's progression over the last few seasons. Does the last season fit in that progression? I like to look at BB percentage, K percentage, GB/LD/FB percentages, HR/FB and BABIP for hitters. For pitchers K/9, BB/9, GB/LD/FB percentage, BABIP, and FIP. These are the factors in a players performances that are usually consistent from season to season. If they are a young player making steady gains then a great season can be expected. If their rates have been steady and were basically the same during a disastrous (or wondrous) season there is reason to believe the performance could have been a fluke.
   
2. Would the player help you more from the Draft Pool? A $28 Josh Hamilton may not seem like much of a bargain on the surface. But if your league has significant inflation and Hamilton is certain to cost $40-45 or even more if you let him go, then be becomes a serious candidate to be kept, traded, or placed back in the pool. If you don't like his price compared to his expected performance then a trade should be attempted. Remember, just because you don't like a guy doesn't mean that others will not. Try to get his inflated value in a trade. Placing the player back in the pool can also be a good option if you believe he will be overbid. If one of your oppoenents will spend 15-20 dollars more than you believe a player will be worth that gives you an advantage over that owner (assuming that you're right).
3. Is the player acually good or just cheap? Your five dollar outfielder may typically earn five dollars but that doesn't mean he's worth keeping. One of the most valuable commodities you have are your roster spots. You should be attempting to fill each and every spot with as much value as possible. To commit to a player with an extremely limited ceiling robs you of the chance to find a significant bargain at the end of your draft. Every season in every league there are players who come out of nowhere to become fantasy studs. If you keep every Willie Bloomquist you have at value you rob yourself of the chance to roster late round bargains like the 2008 versions of outfielder Carlos Quentin, starter Cliff Lee, or catcher Kelly Shoppach.
4. Could you throw the player back and get him for the same price? In most leagues there is a limit to how long you can keep a player. If a player would basicly go for the same price that you have on him now, why not re-draft him and keep him longer. You might get him cheaper if he's called out at the right moment. By the same token he could end up going for more if you've read the market incorrectly. But if the player is someone you like long term it could be worth it for a longer term of service.
   
5. Who else is available? You could own a perfectly fine shortstop but if there are several vastly superior options and you clog your only available shortstop slot you'll be cutting yourself off from any potential bargains. It is a good idea to keep your roster flexible so if for some unexplainable reason the bidding on Troy Tulowitzki stops at $7 you can pounce all over it.
6. What does your budget look like in relation to the players you need? If you are spending 60 percent of your budget do you alsoH have at least 60 percent of the production you need to win the league? Can you get the remaining 40 percent that you need with what you have left? One of the things I always do before declaring my keepers is to calculate how much of the value I need is provided by my keepers. I'm usually not satisfied with 40 percent of my budget for 40 percent of my needs. So I tend to throw back players that are not bargains, even if they are at value. The exception being players at the top of the position rankings - I'lll keep an at value Joe Mauer, Chase Utley, David Wright and so forth but not an at value Derek Jeter, Trevor Hoffman or Bobby Abreu. The point is to pack as much value on your keeper list as possible balanced with keeping as many of your resources available for the auction as possible.
7. Are the types of players you need available? In keeper leagues the player pool can take strange turns. There could be just one available closer and only one or two top tier outfielders. If that is the case you might need to keep a mediocre closer or alter your strategy to avoid closers altogether at the auction. Maybe the pool is woefully short on power. You may need to keep a slightly overpriced A-Rod to ensure you reach the stats you need. It is vital that you compare the needs of your team to the players available in the auction. If there are too few options you may have to make some changes to your keeper list or to your auction strategy.
   
8. Who are your opponents keeping? You need to know who is in the player pool in order to make the best decisions on your keeper list. To do this you have to guess who your rivals are keeeping. In one of my leagues I've known owners to just call and ask. Usually I don't mind sharing this information to an extent. I tell the players I'm considering keeping and let them narrow it down themselves -- of course assuming that they'll do the same for me. This will help you figure out not just who is in the player pool but also what they might cost. This is extremely valuable knowledge.
   
9. How much is the inflation in your league? Calculating a rough estimate of the inflation in your league before keepers are declared can give you edge on the rest of the league. It will help you figure out what the players in the pool will cost while you still have the ability to alter your keeper list.
10. Can you win with this as your core? Your keeper list needs to provide you with a base of stats you can build on. This isn't the time to take chances. You look for upside in the auction. You need your keeper list to be as full of sure things as possible. However, just because Joe Blow expert with the magazine article doesn't like a guy doesn't mean that he isn't a sure thing, if you believe that he is. But you need to be honest about the size of the risk you are taking. If the player in question only costs a buck and you aren't keeping him ahead of anyone better then that should be fine. But if the player in question cost $22 and he has yet to experience major league success and nothing but a hunch suggests that he can this season, you need to look at things again.
    

Do you have other questions you ask yourself or items to consider when forming your keeper list? If so, please share them.

Jeff Moorad Quits D-Backs to Buy the Padres

Jeff Moorad, the CEO of the Arizona Diamondbacks has quit that position to pursue the purchase of the San Diego Padres. It appears that he has the inside track. This could be a huge development for the Padres. Moorad grew up in Southern California and has wanted this for a long time. It is pretty easy to envision him maximizing the payroll and allowing the Padres to keep their best players like first baseman Adrian Gonzalez and right-handed starter Jake Peavy, who are becoming expensive. This is definitely a situation to watch.

From Yahoo.com:

PHOENIX (AP)—Jeff Moorad has resigned as Arizona Diamondbacks chief executive officer and says he has reached an agreement in principle to buy the San Diego Padres.

Moorad said Friday he heads a “small but significant” group of investors that has an exclusive right to complete the specifics of negotiations with Padres owner John Moores. Moorad said he hopes the transaction can be completed in the next three months.

Moorad said he has a long friendship with Moores and his wife, Becky, whose divorce precipitated the Padres’ potential sale.

Discussions on the potential purchase became extensive after Moores hired Goldman Sachs to oversee the sale of the club in late November, Moorad said.

“We have a lot of work to do,” Moorad said on a conference call, “but John and Becky and the folks at Goldman Sachs have been very attentive and focused as I intend to be over the next month or so. I’m hopeful that we can get to the finish line.”

The Moores reportedly own 90 percent of the Padres. Community property laws in California give Becky Moores a 50 percent share of that asset and she must agree to any sale.

Fantasy Baseball Links

The Xavier Nady Debate
I've already declared Nady my choice as right-fielder for the Yankees. The guys at River Ave Blues (one of the best New York Yankees blogs in the business) are still thinking it over. They do a great job of explaining why Nady deserves the regular job.

He has steadily improved from being a platoon player who only hit lefties, to one who hit righties better than lefties last season. Even if that was a peak year for him, if he was to revert to his 2007 line he would still be a fine everyday player and a good replacement for Abreu, especially when you factor in his value as a (slightly better than league average) fielder, and Abreu being the worst RF in the AL by most measures.

Fantasy Pros 911
This site launched on New Years Day and already has loads of interesting stuff to read. Minor league coverage, injury reports, experts leagues, reader contests and tons more. I spent a couple of hours there this morning and I never spend that much time on one site.

If you have listened to my Daily Podcasts you should know,"The Best Time To Prepare For Fantasy Baseball IS NOW! In addition to reading and listening to Podcasts,you should also be doing the following: 1.Make sure you retrieve LAST YEARS FINAL stats of your leagues catagories.You will need to refer to last years stats as you formulate your team 2.Begin to compile a list by position ,of ALL players you feel will be drafted in your league...

A Tough Act To Follow
Ok, my Yankees fandom is showing. However, the guys at this site are some of the best writers on the net. They are always worth reading. This isn't much of a post but I'mcrazy about the new MLB network so any chance tomentionit is alright with me.
The MLB Network launches this evening at 6pm (EST) and will celebrate by airing the unedited original broadcast of Don Larson’s perfect game (including original commercials!) at 7pm, the first time it has been shown to a mass audience since it happened 52 years ago. You can find the new network’s location in your channel lineup by using MLB’s channel locator here.

Why I’m enthusiastic about the MLB Network
Derek from USS Mariner nails exactly why the new MLB network is such a great idea. Not to mention the potentialfor fantasy baseball participants. There is no better place to read up on the Mariners than this site. It should be in the bookmarks of everyone who plays fantasy baseball.

...drawing in new people in other ways and converting them to dedicated fans of the game. I’d love to see shows with different managers talking about strategies, and you could do some amazing things walking through big decisions in their careers. I’m not a Tony LaRussa fan, but I’d love to spend an hour hearing him talk about how his bullpen management philosophy came about, and where he thinks it’s won games and where it’s failed him. Earl Weaver’s still alive — put that guy in front of a camera and start showing him game footage. I’ll bet it’d be must-watch television...

Mastersball 2.0
One of the best fantasy sites that ever existed was swallowed up by fantasybaseball.coma couple of years ago. This was the site that brought Jason Grey (now with ESPN) and Todd Zola (one of the better number crunchers) to our attention. The message board was one of the best in the business, right up there with the RotoJunkie Bullpen and the Baseball HQ message board (paid members only). Be sure to check out their triumphant return.

We simply could not wait another minute! Instead of building a fully functional website with all the bells and whistles, we decided to launch once the core functions were working. It is too close to the start of the season to do otherwise. Our hard-core readers expect nothing less.

Mark DeRosa is traded to the Indians….and the Twins couldn’t top THAT deal?
Okay, I admit I'm a Yankees fan living in Boston and I secretly love listening to teams cry about why their team is still better than another team. Even if they weren't smart enough to pull off the same great deal.

Jeff Stevens. Chris Archer. Jon Gaub. Those three pitchers - none of them highly touted - helped Cleveland raise the stakes in the A.L. Central. They were traded by the Indians to the Cubs for Mark DeRosa, a player the Twins coveted during the winter meetings but couldn’t find a, `match,’ with Chicago. DeRosa, 33 and in the final year of his contract, joins the Tribe after batting .285 last season with 30 doubles, 21 homers and 87 RBI. Those numbers sure would have looked nice at third base for the Twins. My first reaction was to grab a copy of Baseball America’s Top 10 A.L. Central prospects. Stevens, Archer and Gaub were not listed among Cleveland’s top ten prospects. My second reaction was to click onto John Sickels minor league baseball site and look up his list of Cleveland’s top 20 prospects for 2009. Unless my eyes deceived me - I haven’t begun to ring in the New Year yet - none of those pitchers were listed there, either.

Red Sox made play for SS Ramirez
I never for even one second believed that the Marlins would deal Hanley Ramirez to the Red Sox. Not just a few months after signing him to a very club friendly extension. The Red Sox are desperate to add a big bat to their lineup. They seem to have some serious doubts about what Mike Lowell, David Ortiz, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Jed Lowrie will contribute to their lineup. This is easy to understand because despite the flash in the rotation this is a team built around its mashing lineup...which isn't mashing quite so much anymore.

It was originally believed that these recent discussions came after Boston lost out in the running for Mark Teixeira, who signed an eight-year, $180 million deal with the Yankees last week, but in fact, they were held a few weeks prior to that. Though the Red Sox can't quite match the Yankees dollar for dollar (Boston was believed to be offering at least $170 million over eight guaranteed years plus two additional years that could be voided by the team based on plate appearances), Boston is willing to think creatively to try to enhance its offense.

What A Putzy Deal!!!
I love the crusty old fantasy sports veterans. Charlie is like our industry's Bob Ryan. You don't always agree with him but you're always interested in what he might have to say.

...the ‘09 draft will be filled with a lot of guesswork on whom the closers will be. Do your homework, and you can use this to your advantage. And while you’re at it, don’t forget about Putz. Our fantasy injury guru Rick Wilton has been predicting KRod is going down with an arm injury for the last three years. Having signed the big contract, Frankie might try a little too hard to impress the New York fans, and Mr. Wilton’s prophecy might come true. A late round or reserve pick of Putz could reap big rewards...