Top First Basemen Ranked By wOBA

Name	AVG	OBP	SLG	BABIP	wOBA
Albert Pujols	0.357	0.462	0.653	0.346	0.458
Lance Berkman	0.312	0.42	0.567	0.345	0.419
Mark Teixeira	0.308	0.41	0.552	0.321	0.41
Kevin Youkilis	0.312	0.39	0.569	0.347	0.402
Jason Giambi	0.247	0.373	0.502	0.257	0.377
Miguel Cabrera	0.292	0.349	0.537	0.316	0.376
Carlos Pena	0.247	0.377	0.494	0.307	0.374
Nick Johnson	0.22	0.415	0.431	0.241	0.374
Joey Votto	0.297	0.368	0.506	0.33	0.373
Christopher Davis	0.285	0.331	0.549	0.353	0.371
Prince Fielder	0.276	0.372	0.507	0.305	0.37
Ronnie Belliard	0.287	0.372	0.473	0.326	0.369
Justin Morneau	0.3	0.374	0.499	0.318	0.369
Adrian Gonzalez	0.279	0.361	0.51	0.311	0.368
Martin Prado	0.32	0.377	0.461	0.36	0.367
Ryan Howard	0.251	0.339	0.543	0.289	0.366
Carlos Delgado	0.271	0.353	0.518	0.284	0.364
Conor Jackson	0.3	0.376	0.446	0.321	0.364
Pablo Sandoval	0.345	0.357	0.49	0.367	0.361
Hank Blalock	0.287	0.338	0.508	0.301	0.361
Derrek Lee	0.291	0.361	0.462	0.333	0.36
Adam LaRoche	0.27	0.341	0.5	0.313	0.357
Dmitri Young	0.28	0.394	0.4	0.322	0.352
Todd Helton	0.264	0.391	0.388	0.298	0.347
Jorge Cantu	0.277	0.327	0.481	0.297	0.346
Sean Casey	0.322	0.381	0.392	0.368	0.344
Paul Konerko	0.24	0.344	0.438	0.247	0.343
Lyle Overbay	0.27	0.358	0.419	0.32	0.342
Jeff Baker	0.268	0.322	0.468	0.337	0.34
Mike Jacobs	0.247	0.299	0.514	0.264	0.338
Garrett Atkins	0.286	0.328	0.452	0.314	0.337
Doug Mientkiewicz	0.277	0.374	0.379	0.302	0.337
Travis Ishikawa	0.274	0.337	0.432	0.354	0.337
James Loney	0.289	0.338	0.434	0.32	0.333
Ryan Garko	0.273	0.346	0.404	0.306	0.333
Frank Catalanotto	0.274	0.342	0.399	0.304	0.329
Javier Valentin	0.256	0.326	0.411	0.296	0.325
Nick Swisher	0.219	0.332	0.41	0.251	0.325
Rich Aurilia	0.283	0.332	0.413	0.308	0.324
Casey Kotchman	0.272	0.328	0.41	0.273	0.322
Mike Sweeney	0.286	0.331	0.397	0.288	0.322
Billy Butler	0.275	0.324	0.4	0.296	0.318
Chris Duncan	0.248	0.346	0.365	0.299	0.318
Kevin Millar	0.234	0.323	0.394	0.249	0.315
Richie Sexson	0.221	0.321	0.382	0.275	0.314
Tony Clark	0.225	0.359	0.318	0.333	0.314
Chad Tracy	0.267	0.308	0.414	0.301	0.313
Daryle Ward	0.216	0.319	0.402	0.243	0.309
Chris Shelton	0.216	0.333	0.33	0.306	0.308
Wilson Betemit	0.265	0.289	0.429	0.346	0.308
John Bowker	0.255	0.3	0.408	0.302	0.307
Daric Barton	0.226	0.327	0.348	0.272	0.302
Aaron Boone	0.241	0.299	0.384	0.287	0.297
Jeffrey Larish	0.26	0.306	0.375	0.368	0.297
Miguel Cairo	0.249	0.316	0.33	0.291	0.293
Bryan Lahair	0.25	0.315	0.346	0.333	0.292
Robb Quinlan	0.262	0.326	0.311	0.311	0.291
Ross Gload	0.273	0.317	0.348	0.298	0.29
Wes Helms	0.243	0.299	0.347	0.309	0.287
Paul Lo Duca	0.243	0.321	0.295	0.259	0.287
Kory Casto	0.215	0.297	0.313	0.264	0.277
Mark Sweeney	0.13	0.25	0.163	0.188	0.208

Top Catchers Ranked By wOBA

Name	AVG	OBP	SLG	BABIP	wOBA
Mike Napoli	0.273	0.374	0.586	0.307	0.399
Chris Iannetta	0.264	0.39	0.505	0.314	0.391
Brian McCann	0.301	0.373	0.523	0.308	0.387
Joe Mauer	0.328	0.413	0.451	0.35	0.378
Geovany Soto	0.285	0.364	0.504	0.337	0.371
Kelly Shoppach	0.261	0.348	0.517	0.359	0.37
Ryan Doumit	0.318	0.357	0.501	0.338	0.367
John Baker	0.299	0.392	0.447	0.375	0.365
Pablo Sandoval	0.345	0.357	0.49	0.367	0.361
Russell Martin	0.28	0.385	0.396	0.311	0.351
Chris Snyder	0.237	0.348	0.452	0.29	0.346
Jorge Posada	0.268	0.364	0.411	0.331	0.34
Dioner Navarro	0.295	0.349	0.407	0.321	0.33
Miguel Montero	0.255	0.33	0.435	0.323	0.33
Bengie Molina	0.292	0.322	0.445	0.292	0.328
Chris Coste	0.263	0.325	0.423	0.294	0.326
Javier Valentin	0.256	0.326	0.411	0.296	0.325
Ramon Castro	0.245	0.312	0.441	0.275	0.324
Yadier Molina	0.304	0.349	0.392	0.314	0.323
Dave Ross	0.225	0.369	0.352	0.29	0.321
Kurt Suzuki	0.279	0.346	0.37	0.311	0.32
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	0.253	0.352	0.364	0.388	0.319
Ivan Rodriguez	0.276	0.319	0.394	0.318	0.317
Gregg Zaun	0.237	0.34	0.359	0.259	0.316
Gerald Laird	0.276	0.329	0.398	0.324	0.315
A.J. Pierzynski	0.281	0.312	0.416	0.304	0.314
Henry Blanco	0.292	0.325	0.392	0.337	0.314
Miguel Olivo	0.255	0.278	0.444	0.311	0.313
Ramon Hernandez	0.257	0.308	0.406	0.269	0.31
Brian Schneider	0.257	0.339	0.367	0.282	0.309
Victor Martinez	0.278	0.337	0.365	0.31	0.308
Rod Barajas	0.249	0.294	0.41	0.274	0.307
Shawn Riggans	0.222	0.287	0.407	0.242	0.302
Jesus Flores	0.256	0.296	0.402	0.321	0.301
Jason Varitek	0.22	0.313	0.359	0.278	0.299
Brandon Inge	0.205	0.303	0.369	0.248	0.297
Mike Redmond	0.287	0.321	0.333	0.314	0.294
Jason Kendall	0.246	0.327	0.324	0.267	0.293
Yorvit Torrealba	0.246	0.293	0.394	0.28	0.293
John Buck	0.224	0.304	0.365	0.279	0.292
Jeff Clement	0.227	0.295	0.36	0.304	0.289
Kevin Cash	0.225	0.309	0.338	0.326	0.289
Chad Moeller	0.231	0.311	0.33	0.278	0.287
Paul Lo Duca	0.243	0.321	0.295	0.259	0.287
Jason LaRue	0.213	0.296	0.348	0.221	0.286
Wil Nieves	0.261	0.309	0.341	0.308	0.285
Toby Hall	0.26	0.304	0.331	0.292	0.282
Carlos Ruiz	0.219	0.32	0.3	0.237	0.279
Nicholas Hundley	0.237	0.278	0.359	0.298	0.278
Jamie Burke	0.261	0.303	0.326	0.274	0.277
Matt Treanor	0.238	0.306	0.301	0.311	0.277
Paul Bako	0.217	0.299	0.328	0.291	0.274
Kenji Johjima	0.227	0.277	0.332	0.233	0.272
Brad Ausmus	0.218	0.303	0.296	0.256	0.267
Raul Chavez	0.259	0.287	0.319	0.287	0.267
Jeff Mathis	0.194	0.275	0.318	0.25	0.26
Ronny Paulino	0.212	0.277	0.305	0.25	0.26
Michael Barrett	0.202	0.274	0.298	0.224	0.259
Jose Molina	0.216	0.263	0.313	0.258	0.257
Humberto Quintero	0.226	0.27	0.298	0.273	0.256
Josh Bard	0.202	0.279	0.27	0.23	0.249
Guillermo Quiroz	0.187	0.259	0.269	0.235	0.242
Mike Rabelo	0.202	0.256	0.294	0.235	0.242
J.R. Towles	0.137	0.25	0.253	0.157	0.235
Luke Carlin	0.149	0.238	0.234	0.22	0.221

2008-09 MLB's Non-Tendered Free Agents

There are a lot of interesting names among the non-tendered free agents this year. On the surface it may seem that this list of names is irrelevant to fantasy league owners but that assumption would be very wrong. This is about the all important context. If a team essentially cuts players from their starting lineup than other players will be replacing them. The owner that identifies that replacement soonest gains an advantage over his leaguemates. In the article below I've listed all of the non-tendered free agents and commented where I think the possibilities are interesting.

Astros - Ty Wigginton, 3B; Reggie Abercrombie OF
Ty Wigginton would be a solid addition to most lineups. He can play first base or third base and even second base or a corner outfield position in a pinch. He has a few on-base skills and hits for power. Wigginton was let go because the Astros felt they could not afford to keep him. The 2008 season was the best of Wigginton's career despite only 386 at-bats. The Astros do not appear to have a ready replacement for Wigginton. One possibility would be thuggles e early promotion of third-base prospect Chris Johnson. Johnson is smooth defensively but still has some developing to do at the plate. He makes very good contact and has 25-homer power but tends to wait for the fastball and struggles when pitchers don't oblige him.

Reggie Abercrombie is expected to a sign a minor league deal with the Astros and return for the 2009 season.

Braves - Chuck James, LHP
Chuck James was once very highly rated as a Braves pitching prospect but upon his graduation to the majors his K/9 took a significant dip even as his BB/9 rose. James suffered an elbow injury that will almost certainly cause him to miss the 2009 season. The Braves will attempt to sign him to a minor league contract.

The Braves have been determined to add frontline pitching talent to their 2009 rotation. They have already traded for veteran innings eater Javier Vazquez. They made a strong attempt to trade for Jake Peavy but understandably the Padres expectations were extremely high. The Braves also made a very serious bid to acquire pitcher A.J. Burnett who signed with the New York Yankees instead.

It is obvious the Braves intend to add another veteran pitcher to their rotation. If the remaining free agent options do not appeal to them they could return to trade possibilities. Jake Peavy is still an option and the price will come down as the Padres get more desperate to complete a deal.

Brewers - Chris Capuano, LHP
Chris Capuano missed the entire 2008 season after suffering an elbow injury. He eventually had to endure his second Tommy John Elbow Surgery. The Brewers have been involved in his rehab and are hoping to re-sign Capuano to a minor league deal.

Cardinals - Randy Flores, LHP; Tyler Johnson, LHP; Aaron Miles, 2B
The St. Louis Cardinals should be able to find better players than this group in theor sleep. Tony LaRussa has stated a few times this off season that he believes there is a valuable intimidation factor to having big name players in the lineup and on the pitching staff.

Diamondbacks - Chris Burke, INF; Robby Hammock, C; Wil Ledezma, LHP; Jeff Salazar, OF
The Arizona Diamondbacks have signed Felipe Lopez to replace departing second baseman Orlando Hudson. Chris Burke was once thought to be Hudson's potential replacement but he has been just barely above useless as a Diamondback.

Dodgers - Mario Alvarez, RHP; Angel Berroa, SS; Yhency Brazoban, RHP; Scott Proctor, RHP; Takashi Saito, RHP
With Jonathan Broxton established in the closer role the Dodgers saw little need to bring back Takashi Saito. Saito missed a large portion of the season with an elbow injury and was due to gain a significant raise in salary. Saito has been an effective closer in his short major league career. He has the high strikeout rate (11.63), the low walk rate (2.47). He doesn't allow many homeruns (0.43 HR/9) thanks in part to his good groundball rate (42 percent). Saito, if healthy, should be a bargain closer option for some team in 2009.

Mariners - Jamie Burke, C

Marlins - Joe Nelson, RHP

Nationals - Tim Redding, RHP
The Nationals tried very hard to trade Tim Redding but they either set the price too high or it was obvious to other teams that he would eventually be non-tendered. Redding is a very replaceable pitcher and the Nationals just did not want to guve him a raise. The Nationals still need every capable arm they can find so it would not be shocking to see them try to bring Redding back at a discount.

Orioles - Daniel Cabrera, RHP; Lance Cormier RHP
Daniel Cabrera has great stuff. Despite terrible control he tends to induce groundballs. prior to the 2008 season he was a good strikeout pitcher as well. His walk rate (although still extremely high) has gone down three years in a row. It is very easy to speculate that Cabrera's attempts to bring the walks under control cost him in strikeouts. The Orioles were not willing to give him a raise while still unsatisfied with the now 27-year old starter. I think he would make a dynamic relief pitcher. Some team will give him a job in the bullpen this season and a sleeper will be born.

Padres - Clay Hensley, RHP; Charlie Haeger, RHP

Phillies - Scott Mathieson, RHP

Pirates - Denny Bautista, RHP

Rangers - Doug Mathis, RHP

Rays - Jonny Gomes, OF
If if there is a non-tendered free agent with the ability to turn into the next David Ortiz, it is Jonny Gomes. He has extremely good power. He strikes out a lot but he also draws a good number of walks. He hits flyballs and linedrives like crazy. He was also unlucky last season with just a .200 BABIP in 2008 compared to a career average of .294. If Gomes lands on the right team in the right role he will explode in production. The Toronto Blue Jays, Baltimore Orioles, Kansas City Royals, and Seattle Mariners would all be great places for him to land.

Red Sox - Kevin Cash, C

Rockies - Jonathan Herrera, IF; Willy Taveras, OF
Willy Taveras is not an amazing player but he has a few very useful skills. He plays a solid center field (he makes a lot of mistakes but his speed makes up for many of them). He hits the ball on the ground which gives him the best chance to utilize his speed to get on base. He also is a very good base stealer (he is successful in about 80 percent of his attempts). These are skills that many teams could use.

The Rockies tried to trade Taveras but too many teams were correctly convinced that the Rockies would eventually non-tender him. The Rockies will turn to the newly acquired Carlos Gonzalez in center field and hope that he develops faster for them than he did with the Oakland athletics. The Rockies have a deep collection of outfielders coming through the system and infielders that will probably need to be moved. Dexter Fowler and Eric Young are two that should excel and take two spots in the outfield before the end of the 2009 season.

Royals - John Bale, LHP; Jairo Cuevas, RHP; Joey Gathright, OF; Jason Smith, IF

Yankees - Chris Britton, RHP; Justin Christian, OF

More Hot Stove Free-Agent Signings

The Yankees have reached an agreement with RHP A.J. Burnett and the Indians have all but signed closer Kerry Wood. You can read my complete analysis of those pitchers on the RotoExperts.com Fantasy Baseball Blog.

The New York Yankees Sign A.J. Burnett
As a New York Yankees fan I'm not all that enamored of the much rumored plan the Yankees have to sign three free agent starters.The plan forces Phil Hughes and to a lesser extent Ian Kennedy out of the rotation to begin the 2009 season. This seems like the wrong move to me. Signing CC Sabathia was a necessity for the Yankees. They needed that intimidating starter to place at the head of their rotation. I can even understand the second free agent pitcher so that the young guys are not just given a job and will instead have to fight for it. But to sign a third and probably older starter and seemingly give up on the youth movement is just not good team building.
The Tribe Inches Closer to Closer Kerry Wood
Kerry Wood took a physical for the Cleveland Indians on Thursday. Assuming that Wood passed he would soon sign a contract with the Indians expected to be for two years and $20 million. Wood stayed relatively healthy last season as the Cubs closer and was also very effective in the role. He converted 34 of 40 save opportunities while providing the Cubs with 66 and 1/3 innings. He struck out out 84 and walked just 18 batters. He is moving to the tougher league but this generally has a greater effect on starters than relievers.

2008 Team Defensive Ranking by UZR

The chart below is a ranking of every Major League Baseball team by UZR. UZR is one of the best statistical measurements of defense yet created. Please note however that defense statistics stil have a long way to go. Still, examining this chart and ones like it that you can find on sites like FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus and others when your ranking your potential pitching selections can be quite valuable when it comes to guessing on potential breakouts and sleepers.

A team that has dramatically improved it's defense is more likely to findpitching breakouts than the other way around. For those of you unfamiliar with UZR I've borrowed a description from Baseball Think Factory (this link is a good one to read) :

UZR rate is expressed as a fraction of 1, the same as a simple ZR (ZR). A UZR rate means essentially the same thing as a simple ZR � namely the number of balls fielded (turned into at least one out) divided by the number of chances; however, UZR rate is a weighted average of a player�s ZR in each of several zones.

As you will see, UZR rate is really a by-product of UZR runs, and UZR runs is the heart of the UZR system. It represents the value of a fielder�s performance expressed as runs saved or cost, in comparison to an average fielder (actually in comparison to the mean performance of all fielders) at that position, in that player�s league, and during that particular year. UZR runs is the defensive counterpart of Palmer�s offensive linear weights (lwts); thus it can be combined with lwts (among other things) to give you an estimate of a player�s total offensive and defensive value. Any player with an average defensive performance will, by definition, have exactly zero UZR runs.

Team	G	E	DP	FP	UZR
Rays	2080	90	429	0.985	70.6
Phillies	2181	90	380	0.985	48.5
Red Sox	2146	85	399	0.986	44.3
Athletics	2126	98	467	0.984	31.5
Astros	2125	67	379	0.989	30.8
Cardinals	2297	85	430	0.986	30.4
Nationals	2160	123	387	0.98	29.1
Brewers	2002	101	425	0.984	21.7
Giants	2216	96	341	0.984	21.3
Royals	2124	96	431	0.984	19.2
Blue Jays	2042	84	366	0.986	19
Mets	2194	83	344	0.986	14.8
Cubs	2180	99	311	0.983	9.8
Indians	2010	94	498	0.985	6.2
Marlins	2221	117	328	0.98	0.8
Angels	2030	91	441	0.985	-0.5
Braves	2161	107	404	0.983	-0.8
Orioles	2126	100	441	0.983	-2
Padres	2097	85	401	0.986	-14.5
Pirates	2092	107	504	0.983	-17.8
White Sox	2134	108	427	0.983	-18
Twins	2078	108	465	0.983	-25.5
Diamondbacks	2073	113	374	0.981	-25.8
Mariners	2075	99	430	0.984	-32.8
Dodgers	2205	101	376	0.984	-35.8
Rangers	2107	132	528	0.979	-35.8
Tigers	2122	113	466	0.981	-38
Yankees	2143	83	366	0.986	-39.4
Reds	2204	114	414	0.981	-41.7
Rockies	2122	96	466	0.985	-70.9

The Importance of Defense in a Fantasy Baseball Context

If I preach about anything on this blog one of them is putting things into the proper context. David Golebiewski at Fangraph.com has posted a terrific series of articles that examine how the defense of the Texas Rangers and the improvement of Edwin Jackson, and also the new and improving defense of the Seattle Mariners fit into fantasy baseball context. This is great stuff that you should read.

Rangeless Rangers Compound Pitching Problems

So, the vast majority of Texas’ starters were crappy, regardless of dimensions of their home ballpark. That’s not breaking news. However, the Rangers’ fielders did those starters no favors in 2008. While Texas featured some heavy hitters, several prominent players were lethargic with the leather.

David Appelman recently added yet another great feature to this site: Ultimate Zone Rating. Using a fielding model developed by Mitchel Lichtman, UZR allows us to calculate how many runs above or below average a fielder is per 150 games played (for further details and discussion, look here). Perusing the Texas team page, it becomes apparent that while the Rangers’ offense is strong up the middle, some of those runs are punted back on defense (and, in Young’s case, on offense as well):

CF Hamilton: -12.6 UZR/150
2B Kinsler: -4.4 UZR/150
SS Young: -3.7 UZR/150

This is especially significant with all of the young and extremely talented pitching about to come out of the texas Rangers minor league system. It also helps to explain why so many pitchers fail in Texas only to make dramatic improvements elsewhere. The Park Factors and Bad Defense combine tocreate a worst-case scenario for pitchers in Texas.

Trade Fallout: Jackson Jumps to Motown
In 2007, Jackson posted a 4.90 FIP. In 2008, despite the huge difference in ERA, that FIP figure remained static (4.88 FIP). While he knocked off over a walk per nine innings from his line (from 4.92 BB/9 in ‘07 to 3.78 BB/9 in ‘08), his strikeout rate dipped considerably, down from 7.16 per nine in 2007 to just 5.3 in 2008.

It wasn’t really Jackson that improved, but rather the defense around him. The dramatic shift in the quality of Tampa’s D has been well chronicled. After posting a gruesome -54.2 UZR in 2007, the Rays skyrocketed to +70.6 in ‘08 (for those of you scoring at home, that’s about a twelve-and-a-half win swing). Jackson’s BABIP was .351 in 2007, but with the best defensive squad in the majors flanking him in 2008, that number dropped to .301. He also benefitted from stranding 76.1% of runners on base, well above his 69.7% career average.

This makes the Tigers acquisition of Jackson even more interesting. The Tigers have improved their defense this offseason but is it enough to allow Jackson to stay at the level he reached last year? If it is and Jackson can increase his strikeout rate and maintain or even improve his BB/9 from last season we could be looking at a real breakout.

Meet the Mariners’ New Outfield D
As a whole, the M’s outfield was -25.5 runs below average by UZR and -15.2 runs by the Plus/Minus system (the big difference in RF is due to Dewan’s system liking Ichiro’s work there and UZR rating it as slightly below average).

Now, take a gander at the new-look Seattle D. For the sake of making this comparison easier, let’s assume that:
1. Chavez, Gutierrez and Suzuki all make 150 starts and play 1350 innings apiece.
2. The fielding metrics compiled by Gutierrez are docked 15% (it’s far from perfect, but it’s an attempt to account for the added difficulty of playing center), and Chavez and Suzuki play to the levels that they have shown in the corner spots during their respective careers. For Chavez, I added his equally stellar work in RF to his projection to make the sample size larger (the majority of his career has been spent in center).

LF Chavez: 20.3 UZR/150
CF Gutierrez: 18.3 UZR/150
RF Suzuki: 7.3 UZR/150

If this trio plays 150 games, they project to be nearly 46 runs above average with the leather. Compare that with the embarrassing work done by last year’s Ibanez-fueled, molasses-covered group: if the M’s get league-average defense from their extra outfielders (filling out the additional 12 game gap), that’s a swing of over 70 runs in outfield defense, or seven wins (!)

An improved defense as well as an improved offense means good things are in store for the Seattle Mariners pitching staff. I'm especially intrigued with the improvement that is possible for Felix Hernandez.
Read All of The Above Articles - what I've sampled for you is just that.

Raul Ibanez Signs with the Philadelphia Phillies

Raul Ibanez has agreed to a contract with the Philadelphia Phillies believed to be worth $30 million for three years. Ibanez replaces former left fielder Pat Burrell who is presently a free agent.

This seems a bit odd for the Phillies. Ibanez is older (37-years old), just as bad defensively, and left-handed which tilts the Phillies lineup dramatically to that side. Ibanez is also a not as skilled at getting on base as Burrell. Ibanez does make better contact and thus usually hits for a better batting average but that has more value for us a fantasy players than it does for the Phillies.

Ibanez moves to a better park for hitters. Citizens Bank Park was rated at 1.029 runs and Safeco at 0.932. Ibanez is a good contact hitter with good power. He hits more groundballs than you would like to see from your power hitters. He should put up better counting stats in a far stronger Phillies lineup. All of this makes Ibanez a good fantasy baseball addition for the 2009 season.