More Hot Stove Free-Agent Signings

The Yankees have reached an agreement with RHP A.J. Burnett and the Indians have all but signed closer Kerry Wood. You can read my complete analysis of those pitchers on the RotoExperts.com Fantasy Baseball Blog.

The New York Yankees Sign A.J. Burnett
As a New York Yankees fan I'm not all that enamored of the much rumored plan the Yankees have to sign three free agent starters.The plan forces Phil Hughes and to a lesser extent Ian Kennedy out of the rotation to begin the 2009 season. This seems like the wrong move to me. Signing CC Sabathia was a necessity for the Yankees. They needed that intimidating starter to place at the head of their rotation. I can even understand the second free agent pitcher so that the young guys are not just given a job and will instead have to fight for it. But to sign a third and probably older starter and seemingly give up on the youth movement is just not good team building.
The Tribe Inches Closer to Closer Kerry Wood
Kerry Wood took a physical for the Cleveland Indians on Thursday. Assuming that Wood passed he would soon sign a contract with the Indians expected to be for two years and $20 million. Wood stayed relatively healthy last season as the Cubs closer and was also very effective in the role. He converted 34 of 40 save opportunities while providing the Cubs with 66 and 1/3 innings. He struck out out 84 and walked just 18 batters. He is moving to the tougher league but this generally has a greater effect on starters than relievers.

2008 Team Defensive Ranking by UZR

The chart below is a ranking of every Major League Baseball team by UZR. UZR is one of the best statistical measurements of defense yet created. Please note however that defense statistics stil have a long way to go. Still, examining this chart and ones like it that you can find on sites like FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus and others when your ranking your potential pitching selections can be quite valuable when it comes to guessing on potential breakouts and sleepers.

A team that has dramatically improved it's defense is more likely to findpitching breakouts than the other way around. For those of you unfamiliar with UZR I've borrowed a description from Baseball Think Factory (this link is a good one to read) :

UZR rate is expressed as a fraction of 1, the same as a simple ZR (ZR). A UZR rate means essentially the same thing as a simple ZR � namely the number of balls fielded (turned into at least one out) divided by the number of chances; however, UZR rate is a weighted average of a player�s ZR in each of several zones.

As you will see, UZR rate is really a by-product of UZR runs, and UZR runs is the heart of the UZR system. It represents the value of a fielder�s performance expressed as runs saved or cost, in comparison to an average fielder (actually in comparison to the mean performance of all fielders) at that position, in that player�s league, and during that particular year. UZR runs is the defensive counterpart of Palmer�s offensive linear weights (lwts); thus it can be combined with lwts (among other things) to give you an estimate of a player�s total offensive and defensive value. Any player with an average defensive performance will, by definition, have exactly zero UZR runs.

Team	G	E	DP	FP	UZR
Rays	2080	90	429	0.985	70.6
Phillies	2181	90	380	0.985	48.5
Red Sox	2146	85	399	0.986	44.3
Athletics	2126	98	467	0.984	31.5
Astros	2125	67	379	0.989	30.8
Cardinals	2297	85	430	0.986	30.4
Nationals	2160	123	387	0.98	29.1
Brewers	2002	101	425	0.984	21.7
Giants	2216	96	341	0.984	21.3
Royals	2124	96	431	0.984	19.2
Blue Jays	2042	84	366	0.986	19
Mets	2194	83	344	0.986	14.8
Cubs	2180	99	311	0.983	9.8
Indians	2010	94	498	0.985	6.2
Marlins	2221	117	328	0.98	0.8
Angels	2030	91	441	0.985	-0.5
Braves	2161	107	404	0.983	-0.8
Orioles	2126	100	441	0.983	-2
Padres	2097	85	401	0.986	-14.5
Pirates	2092	107	504	0.983	-17.8
White Sox	2134	108	427	0.983	-18
Twins	2078	108	465	0.983	-25.5
Diamondbacks	2073	113	374	0.981	-25.8
Mariners	2075	99	430	0.984	-32.8
Dodgers	2205	101	376	0.984	-35.8
Rangers	2107	132	528	0.979	-35.8
Tigers	2122	113	466	0.981	-38
Yankees	2143	83	366	0.986	-39.4
Reds	2204	114	414	0.981	-41.7
Rockies	2122	96	466	0.985	-70.9

The Importance of Defense in a Fantasy Baseball Context

If I preach about anything on this blog one of them is putting things into the proper context. David Golebiewski at Fangraph.com has posted a terrific series of articles that examine how the defense of the Texas Rangers and the improvement of Edwin Jackson, and also the new and improving defense of the Seattle Mariners fit into fantasy baseball context. This is great stuff that you should read.

Rangeless Rangers Compound Pitching Problems

So, the vast majority of Texas’ starters were crappy, regardless of dimensions of their home ballpark. That’s not breaking news. However, the Rangers’ fielders did those starters no favors in 2008. While Texas featured some heavy hitters, several prominent players were lethargic with the leather.

David Appelman recently added yet another great feature to this site: Ultimate Zone Rating. Using a fielding model developed by Mitchel Lichtman, UZR allows us to calculate how many runs above or below average a fielder is per 150 games played (for further details and discussion, look here). Perusing the Texas team page, it becomes apparent that while the Rangers’ offense is strong up the middle, some of those runs are punted back on defense (and, in Young’s case, on offense as well):

CF Hamilton: -12.6 UZR/150
2B Kinsler: -4.4 UZR/150
SS Young: -3.7 UZR/150

This is especially significant with all of the young and extremely talented pitching about to come out of the texas Rangers minor league system. It also helps to explain why so many pitchers fail in Texas only to make dramatic improvements elsewhere. The Park Factors and Bad Defense combine tocreate a worst-case scenario for pitchers in Texas.

Trade Fallout: Jackson Jumps to Motown
In 2007, Jackson posted a 4.90 FIP. In 2008, despite the huge difference in ERA, that FIP figure remained static (4.88 FIP). While he knocked off over a walk per nine innings from his line (from 4.92 BB/9 in ‘07 to 3.78 BB/9 in ‘08), his strikeout rate dipped considerably, down from 7.16 per nine in 2007 to just 5.3 in 2008.

It wasn’t really Jackson that improved, but rather the defense around him. The dramatic shift in the quality of Tampa’s D has been well chronicled. After posting a gruesome -54.2 UZR in 2007, the Rays skyrocketed to +70.6 in ‘08 (for those of you scoring at home, that’s about a twelve-and-a-half win swing). Jackson’s BABIP was .351 in 2007, but with the best defensive squad in the majors flanking him in 2008, that number dropped to .301. He also benefitted from stranding 76.1% of runners on base, well above his 69.7% career average.

This makes the Tigers acquisition of Jackson even more interesting. The Tigers have improved their defense this offseason but is it enough to allow Jackson to stay at the level he reached last year? If it is and Jackson can increase his strikeout rate and maintain or even improve his BB/9 from last season we could be looking at a real breakout.

Meet the Mariners’ New Outfield D
As a whole, the M’s outfield was -25.5 runs below average by UZR and -15.2 runs by the Plus/Minus system (the big difference in RF is due to Dewan’s system liking Ichiro’s work there and UZR rating it as slightly below average).

Now, take a gander at the new-look Seattle D. For the sake of making this comparison easier, let’s assume that:
1. Chavez, Gutierrez and Suzuki all make 150 starts and play 1350 innings apiece.
2. The fielding metrics compiled by Gutierrez are docked 15% (it’s far from perfect, but it’s an attempt to account for the added difficulty of playing center), and Chavez and Suzuki play to the levels that they have shown in the corner spots during their respective careers. For Chavez, I added his equally stellar work in RF to his projection to make the sample size larger (the majority of his career has been spent in center).

LF Chavez: 20.3 UZR/150
CF Gutierrez: 18.3 UZR/150
RF Suzuki: 7.3 UZR/150

If this trio plays 150 games, they project to be nearly 46 runs above average with the leather. Compare that with the embarrassing work done by last year’s Ibanez-fueled, molasses-covered group: if the M’s get league-average defense from their extra outfielders (filling out the additional 12 game gap), that’s a swing of over 70 runs in outfield defense, or seven wins (!)

An improved defense as well as an improved offense means good things are in store for the Seattle Mariners pitching staff. I'm especially intrigued with the improvement that is possible for Felix Hernandez.
Read All of The Above Articles - what I've sampled for you is just that.

Raul Ibanez Signs with the Philadelphia Phillies

Raul Ibanez has agreed to a contract with the Philadelphia Phillies believed to be worth $30 million for three years. Ibanez replaces former left fielder Pat Burrell who is presently a free agent.

This seems a bit odd for the Phillies. Ibanez is older (37-years old), just as bad defensively, and left-handed which tilts the Phillies lineup dramatically to that side. Ibanez is also a not as skilled at getting on base as Burrell. Ibanez does make better contact and thus usually hits for a better batting average but that has more value for us a fantasy players than it does for the Phillies.

Ibanez moves to a better park for hitters. Citizens Bank Park was rated at 1.029 runs and Safeco at 0.932. Ibanez is a good contact hitter with good power. He hits more groundballs than you would like to see from your power hitters. He should put up better counting stats in a far stronger Phillies lineup. All of this makes Ibanez a good fantasy baseball addition for the 2009 season.

More Updates From the Winter Meetings

The trades just keep coming from Major League Baseball's Winter Meetings. I've written more updates on the RotoExperts.com blog and now of course I share them with you.

CC Sabathia Agrees to Pitch for the New York Yankees
In the end the New York Yankees refused to take no for an answer. CC Sabathia had no issues with playing in New York his problem was that he really wanted to live and play on the West Coast. Unfortunately for Sabathia none of the West Coast teams were willing to step to the plate. It might have dragged on even longer but Brian Cashman was so determined to sign him that he left the Winter Meetings in Las Vegas to meet with Sabathia and his wife in San Francisco. Cashman also added another year onto the contract and gave Sabathia the ability to opt out of the contract after three seasons.The final deal was for seven years and $161 million.
Closer J.J. Putz Traded in Three Team Deal
The Mets received closer (now set-up man) J.J. Putz, outfielder Jeremy Reed, and right-hander Sean Green from Seattle. The Mariners received outfielder Franklin Gutierrez from the Indians and, from the Mets, right-hander Aaron Heilman, center fielder Endy Chavez and four Minor Leaguers -- first baseman Mike Carp, right-hander Maikel Cleto, left-hander Jason Vargas and center fielder Ezekiel Carrera. The Indians received right-hander Joe Smith from the Mets and infielder Luis Valbuena from the Mariners.
The Detroit Tigers Acquire RHP Edwin Jackson
The Detroit Tigers have sent outfielder Matt Joyce to the Tampa Bay Rays for right-hander Edwin Jackson. The trade fills a need on both teams. The Tigers needed a healthy starter to eat some innings. While the Rays needed a corner outfielder.

More from the Hot Stove Junkie

The latest Hot Stove Junkie is posted on RotoExperts.com. Lots of interesting moves last week to analyze.

The Boston Red Sox Sign another Japanese Pitcher
I ran into Boston Red Sox General Manager Theo Epstein last week. I wanted to ask him about his off-season plans but he just kept repeating the same phrase.

I'm turning Japanese I think I'm turning Japanese I really think so Turning Japanese I think I'm turning Japanese I really think so I'm turning Japanese I think I'm turning Japanese I really think so Turning Japanese I think I'm turning Japanese I really think so

After walking away in confusion, I heard some news that rather explained it. The Red Sox had just signed their third Japanese pitcher. Right-hander Junichi Tazawa signed a three-year deal for $3.3 million. Tazawa is just 22 years-old. He will begin the 2009 season pitching for the double-A Portland Sea Dogs. Translating Japanese numbers to relevance for fantasy leaguers has always been a problem but Tazawa appears worthy of top prospect status. He spent the last four years pitching in the Japanese Industrial League for Nippon Oil where he was 13-1 with 5 saves and a 0.80 ERA this season in 21 games. He struck out 114 batters to just 15 walks in 113 innings. He is someone to watch, but I would not go nuts for him just yet.

Winter Meetings Update

The Winter Meetings were quite active today with some expected moves and some not so expected. The rumors of even more moves were running rampant. I've been writing updates for the RotoExperts.com blog all day between sessions with my 11-month old niece who has become quite the mimic. She can almost perfectly imitate her grandfather's smoking cough, it is even more hilarious than it sounds. I'm summarizing all the moves here, check out the links for the complete analysis.

Today's Moves

The Detroit Tigers have reached an agreement with shortstop Adam Everett on a one-year deal for $1 million.
The Detroit Tigers have reached an agreement with shortstop Adam Everett on a one-year deal for $1 million. The signing is pending a physical for Everett. Believe it or not this is an okay move for the Tigers even if it does nothing for fantasy leaguers. The Tigers could not afford (or at least were unwilling) to sign one of the better free agents. They were engaged in trade talks with the Pittsburgh Pirates to acquire shortstop Jack Wilson. Trading for Wilson would have been a much worse move.

The Los Angeles Dodgers reached contract agreements with free agents Casey Blake (3B, LAD) and Mark Loretta (2B, LAD). Blake received a three-year contract worth $17.1 million. Loretta received a one-year deal worth $1.25 million to act as the teams utility man.
These are decent deal for the Dodgers who have made lots of terrible free agent deals in recent years . Both are signed relatively cheaply and not for many years. They also aren't paid so much that they couldn't be moved to the bench or another team should a younger player emerge.

Francisco Rodriguez was expecting to sign a bank breaking contract as the best closer on the market. Instead he has agreed to a nice but not groundbreaking deal with the New York Mets who played him and the market almost perfectly. K-Rod's deal is for three-years and $37 million.
Rodriguez is one of the best closers in baseball and an excellent fantasy option. However, it is important that owners know that Rodriguez is not the fireballer he was a few years ago. Rather than throwing his fastball 97-98 mph, he throws it 93-94. It may not seem like a huge distinction but it is to major league hitters. He claims to have taken some off his fastball to increase his control. If that's true it isn't working. In 2008 his K/9 fell from over twelve four straight years to 10.14 in 2008. At the same time his BB/9 has risen to nearly 4.50 the last two seasons.

The re-building baltimore Orioles opened a spot for the best prospect in the minors when they traded catcher Ramon Hernandez to the Cincinnati Reds for outfielder Ryan Freel and two minor leaguers - infielders Justin Turner and Brandon Waring.
Ryan Freel should be a versatile reserve for the Orioles playing all three outfield positions and second and third base when necessary. Freel has decent on-base skills and good speed that he uses to steal bases at about a 75 percent success rate. Freel is an excellent pick-up in deeper leagues for his versatility and stolen bases. In shallower leagues he doesn't have much value unless he gets more consistent playing time.