Scouting the Dominican Republic

I am one of those fantasy baseball guys that loves to study prospects. Nothing makes me happier (and increases my hat size) more than having identified players like Jose Reyes, Nate McLouth, and Mike Piazza before anyone else in my leagues. If you are a similar sort than you need to read this series of articles by Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. It follows Rene Gayo, Latin American scouting director for the Pittsburgh Pirates. It explores the entire process of scouting and signing international prospects. This is a MUST READ.

Part One: A young Dominican out duels peers who play baseball 'for food'

Part Two: New academy just one part of building talent pool

Part Three: Gayo's focus is on finding talent, but he must battle emotions in process

Emily's Fantasy Baseball Survey

There is a very popular fantasy baseball survey making its way around the internet. It was created by a NorthWestern student named Emily. She is doing research on fantasy baseball and the people who play it. Please take5-10 minutes to complete this survey and further the scholarly reach of our hobby.

Hello Fellow Fantasy Baseball Fans,

My name is Emily Stecher and I am a senior at Northwestern University writing my senior thesis on fantasy baseball. I am a fantasy baseball participant myself and an avid baseball fan. The literature on fantasy baseball is not terribly extensive so I am trying to conduct a survey to further my research. This survey takes 5 minutes and I would really appreciate all the help I can get. Plus, everyone who participates will be entered in a raffle to win a $50 VISA gift card.

Here is the link to the survey. Please take it!

http://www.surveymonkey.com/s.aspx?sm=68fvy_2bS28ez0el35eRWFHQ_3d_3d

Thanks so much!,
Emily

Sleeper Alert: Khalil Greene

I posted my thoughts on shortstop Khalil Greene's trade to the St. Louis Cardinals from the San Diego Padres today on the RotoExperts.com fantasy baseball blog. It is my intention that anyone who reads this blog not miss any tidbits I might have to offer. I say this so you'll know that the many links to that site aren't purely marketing related. I get nothing for sending people to that blog or to the RotoExperts.com. I just happen to write for it and believe that it is well worth reading.

Anyway, I think Khalil Greene is a great addition for the Cardinals and he should dramatically improve his fantasy value this season. Here is a clip and a link if you are inclined to read the entire post:

Khalil has a career BABIP of .285 while the average BABIP is closer to .300. He has a career LD percentage of 19.5, which is not spectacular but certainly solid. His career FB percentage 45.8 should also indicate some solid production with a power hitter like Khalil. But Petco seems to have tanked his HR/FB to a disappointing 9.6 percent. Just for comparison’s sake, J.J. Hardy has a just a 37.9 FB percentage but a career 11.9 HR/FB percentage (14.1 percent in 2008). A “normal” HR/FB percentage is around 11 percent. Busch Stadium (still a slight pitchers’ park with its Park Factor of .943 runs) is going to seem like a Little League field to Khalil in 2009.

The Fantasy Impact of the Vazquez Trade

There are now a lot of reasons to like Javier Vazquez in 2009. Just in case you have been living in a cave or haven't bothered to scan the post directly below this one I'll fill you in on the biggest reason for that change:

Veteran right-handed starter, Javier Vazquez and left-handed reliever Boone Logan have been traded from the Chicago White Sox to the Atlanta Braves in exchange for a package of prospects that almost certainly includes a young lefty starter, Jo-Jo Reyes and infielder Brett Lillibridge. The one remaining prospect has yet to be determined but speculation by ESPN reporters suggest that it is one or two of a group that includes catcher Tyler Flowers, third baseman Jon Gilmore, and pitcher Santos Rodriguez. Most reports are assuming that the White Sox will pick Flowers and with good reason. It has also been reported more recently that the White Sox will receive all three prospects and Lillibridge leaving Reyes with the Atlanta Braves.

If this is the same package that the Braves were offering the San Diego Padres in the Jake Peavy negotiations then I now understand why they could not complete the deal. However, the Braves were rumored to be including two significantly better prospects - center fielder Jordan Schafer and right-hander Tommy Hanson. That deal would also have potentially cost them their potentially great shortstop Yunel Escobar. Instead, as a poster on the RotoJunkie forums put it, the Braves got 80 percent of the pitcher for 20 percent of the cost. Final- TRADE UPDATE

Almost every pitcher improves when he moves from the American League to the National League. This has been shown in several places. Their strikeouts increase mostly by virtue of facing other pitchers rather than designated hitters. Vazquez as an excellent strikeout pitcher should certainly benefit from this change. This alone should be enough to convince most owners to take a chance on Vazquez in 2009 but there is even more. The move from U.S. Cellular Field (+ 0.077 runs in 2008) to Turner Field which usually plays as a major pitchers' park (it didn't in 2008 probably because the Braves did not have many pitchers worthy of the starting jobs) should knock potentially almost a full run from Vazquez's performance stats.


It also helps that Vazquez has always looked statistically like a much better pitcher than his performance would suggest. His career FIP is just 3.93 compared to his career ERA of 4.32. His career K-rate is 7.99, his BB-rate is just 2.39 - a career K/BB of 3.34. He is a flyball pitcher who has allowed a career 1.19 HR/9 which is probably the biggest negative he has. Hopefully the better pitching environment in Atlanta can neutralize this.

Mark Hulet over at Fangraphs (remember those great statistical sources I told you about) has a great review of the prospects involved. Tyler Flowers is obviously the best of the lot, especially where fantasy baseball is concerned. He should be an extremely hot commodity in leagues that draft minor leaguers (there is a chance he starts the season in the majors but not a large one).

Javier Vazquez going to Atlanta for Reyes, others

Vasquez should be great in Atlanta. More when the details are firmed up.

Right-handed pitcher Javier Vazquez has been told he's headed from the Chicago White Sox to the Atlanta Braves in a deal which is likely to be finalized on Wednesday.

Vazquez is flying to Atlanta on Wednesday morning for a physical.

A baseball source told ESPN's Peter Gammons that the deal will include four other players, including reliever Boone Logan, who would also go from the White Sox to the Braves.

Among the players expected to go from Atlanta to the Chicago organization are Jo-Jo Reyes, Brett Lillibridge and another top prospect.

Would You Draft Phil Hughes

After years of hype, Phil Hughes has finally hit his low as a fantasy baseball prospect. He has had little if any value in even the deepest of leagues. Hughes is now claimingto be ready for 2009 but we've heard similar declarations before. beyond the occasional flash of talent he has done nothing for fantasy owners.

But...

Those flashes... He seems to end every season on a roll. He dominated the Arizona Fall League. In the AFL he loked exactly like the ace that the Yankees have been counting on in their rotation. Remember when he was ranked higher than Joba Chamberlain?

Tell me in the comments if you would draft him in your leagues in 2009.

2009 Fantasy Man Early Expert Mock Draft

A few weeks ago I participated in the Fantasy Man's Early Expert Mock Draft. I went in without any real strategy in mind. I planned to make some out of the box picks and see what the reaction was like. I think I finished with a very solid squad that has more upside potential than most. The Fantasy Man has a post on his blog that has collected the thoughts of a few of the experts.


I am very curious to hear your thoughts.


See the entire draft here

C Joe Mauer

C Dioner Navarro

1B Justin Morneau

3B Alex Rodriguez

CR Adrian Beltre

2B Mark Ellis

SS JJ Hardy

MI Jason Bartlett

OF Matt Kemp

OF Nate McLouth

OF Jermaine Dye

OF Nelson Cruz

OF Coco Crisp

Utl Jason Giambi

P Cliff Lee

P Rich Harden

P Josh Johnson

P Gavin Floyd

P Chien-Ming Wang

P Brandon Morrow

P George Sherrill

P Heath Bell

P Joakim Soria