Sleeper Alert: Khalil Greene

I posted my thoughts on shortstop Khalil Greene's trade to the St. Louis Cardinals from the San Diego Padres today on the RotoExperts.com fantasy baseball blog. It is my intention that anyone who reads this blog not miss any tidbits I might have to offer. I say this so you'll know that the many links to that site aren't purely marketing related. I get nothing for sending people to that blog or to the RotoExperts.com. I just happen to write for it and believe that it is well worth reading.

Anyway, I think Khalil Greene is a great addition for the Cardinals and he should dramatically improve his fantasy value this season. Here is a clip and a link if you are inclined to read the entire post:

Khalil has a career BABIP of .285 while the average BABIP is closer to .300. He has a career LD percentage of 19.5, which is not spectacular but certainly solid. His career FB percentage 45.8 should also indicate some solid production with a power hitter like Khalil. But Petco seems to have tanked his HR/FB to a disappointing 9.6 percent. Just for comparison’s sake, J.J. Hardy has a just a 37.9 FB percentage but a career 11.9 HR/FB percentage (14.1 percent in 2008). A “normal” HR/FB percentage is around 11 percent. Busch Stadium (still a slight pitchers’ park with its Park Factor of .943 runs) is going to seem like a Little League field to Khalil in 2009.

The Fantasy Impact of the Vazquez Trade

There are now a lot of reasons to like Javier Vazquez in 2009. Just in case you have been living in a cave or haven't bothered to scan the post directly below this one I'll fill you in on the biggest reason for that change:

Veteran right-handed starter, Javier Vazquez and left-handed reliever Boone Logan have been traded from the Chicago White Sox to the Atlanta Braves in exchange for a package of prospects that almost certainly includes a young lefty starter, Jo-Jo Reyes and infielder Brett Lillibridge. The one remaining prospect has yet to be determined but speculation by ESPN reporters suggest that it is one or two of a group that includes catcher Tyler Flowers, third baseman Jon Gilmore, and pitcher Santos Rodriguez. Most reports are assuming that the White Sox will pick Flowers and with good reason. It has also been reported more recently that the White Sox will receive all three prospects and Lillibridge leaving Reyes with the Atlanta Braves.

If this is the same package that the Braves were offering the San Diego Padres in the Jake Peavy negotiations then I now understand why they could not complete the deal. However, the Braves were rumored to be including two significantly better prospects - center fielder Jordan Schafer and right-hander Tommy Hanson. That deal would also have potentially cost them their potentially great shortstop Yunel Escobar. Instead, as a poster on the RotoJunkie forums put it, the Braves got 80 percent of the pitcher for 20 percent of the cost. Final- TRADE UPDATE

Almost every pitcher improves when he moves from the American League to the National League. This has been shown in several places. Their strikeouts increase mostly by virtue of facing other pitchers rather than designated hitters. Vazquez as an excellent strikeout pitcher should certainly benefit from this change. This alone should be enough to convince most owners to take a chance on Vazquez in 2009 but there is even more. The move from U.S. Cellular Field (+ 0.077 runs in 2008) to Turner Field which usually plays as a major pitchers' park (it didn't in 2008 probably because the Braves did not have many pitchers worthy of the starting jobs) should knock potentially almost a full run from Vazquez's performance stats.


It also helps that Vazquez has always looked statistically like a much better pitcher than his performance would suggest. His career FIP is just 3.93 compared to his career ERA of 4.32. His career K-rate is 7.99, his BB-rate is just 2.39 - a career K/BB of 3.34. He is a flyball pitcher who has allowed a career 1.19 HR/9 which is probably the biggest negative he has. Hopefully the better pitching environment in Atlanta can neutralize this.

Mark Hulet over at Fangraphs (remember those great statistical sources I told you about) has a great review of the prospects involved. Tyler Flowers is obviously the best of the lot, especially where fantasy baseball is concerned. He should be an extremely hot commodity in leagues that draft minor leaguers (there is a chance he starts the season in the majors but not a large one).

Javier Vazquez going to Atlanta for Reyes, others

Vasquez should be great in Atlanta. More when the details are firmed up.

Right-handed pitcher Javier Vazquez has been told he's headed from the Chicago White Sox to the Atlanta Braves in a deal which is likely to be finalized on Wednesday.

Vazquez is flying to Atlanta on Wednesday morning for a physical.

A baseball source told ESPN's Peter Gammons that the deal will include four other players, including reliever Boone Logan, who would also go from the White Sox to the Braves.

Among the players expected to go from Atlanta to the Chicago organization are Jo-Jo Reyes, Brett Lillibridge and another top prospect.

Would You Draft Phil Hughes

After years of hype, Phil Hughes has finally hit his low as a fantasy baseball prospect. He has had little if any value in even the deepest of leagues. Hughes is now claimingto be ready for 2009 but we've heard similar declarations before. beyond the occasional flash of talent he has done nothing for fantasy owners.

But...

Those flashes... He seems to end every season on a roll. He dominated the Arizona Fall League. In the AFL he loked exactly like the ace that the Yankees have been counting on in their rotation. Remember when he was ranked higher than Joba Chamberlain?

Tell me in the comments if you would draft him in your leagues in 2009.

2009 Fantasy Man Early Expert Mock Draft

A few weeks ago I participated in the Fantasy Man's Early Expert Mock Draft. I went in without any real strategy in mind. I planned to make some out of the box picks and see what the reaction was like. I think I finished with a very solid squad that has more upside potential than most. The Fantasy Man has a post on his blog that has collected the thoughts of a few of the experts.


I am very curious to hear your thoughts.


See the entire draft here

C Joe Mauer

C Dioner Navarro

1B Justin Morneau

3B Alex Rodriguez

CR Adrian Beltre

2B Mark Ellis

SS JJ Hardy

MI Jason Bartlett

OF Matt Kemp

OF Nate McLouth

OF Jermaine Dye

OF Nelson Cruz

OF Coco Crisp

Utl Jason Giambi

P Cliff Lee

P Rich Harden

P Josh Johnson

P Gavin Floyd

P Chien-Ming Wang

P Brandon Morrow

P George Sherrill

P Heath Bell

P Joakim Soria

To Have a Great Hot Stove Season

Head over to the RotoExperts.com baseball blog for my article on how to have a great hot stove season.

Reflect on last season

This very valuable step is often missed, especially when your fantasy baseball season ended in frustration. By looking back we can uncover where we went wrong. Did we take too many chances at the draft? Have you become predictable? Was that drunken Fourth of July trade you made with your weasel of a cousin a bad idea? Did you dump CC Sabathia on some “sucker” after his second terrible start in April? Making these self-evaluations, we can stop ourselves from making the same mistakes again.

We should also take the time to study our rivals. How did your league champion win? Does he make amazing trades? Did he rebuild for two years? Maybe your rival has a weakness for players on the Boston Red Sox that you can exploit. Does he have what looks like an unbeatable collection of young stars he can keep? Perhaps he exploited a loophole in the rules. We need to know our rivals as well as ourselves.

Favorite Statistical Sources

Everyday there is another great site pops up that presents the baseball team and player statistics. The sites linked below are my favorites. They are not only great, they are free, so please support them in whatever fashion possible.

TheBaseballCube.com
When I want to get a quick sense of a player thebaseballcube.com is the first place I go. Not only do I get the basic stats that count for fantasy but key bits of information such as birthdate, age at each level, college stats, honors and awards that have been granted the player and a bunch more.

FanGraphs.com
When I need to understand where a player is going statistically or when I want to know why they rose or fell, this is the site I check. Fangraphs has tons of great stats that you rarely find on other sites - wOBA, IFFB percentage, HR/FB, IFH%, WPA and tons more. Plus, this site has a great blog that Dave Cameron --one of the best baseball bloggers on the planet -- contributes to frequently.

HardBallTimes.com
Sometimes I just need someone else to do the heavy lifting for a whilw and that means a trip to hardballtimes.com is in my future. Everything is here -- the news, the stats, the analysis, the fantasy spins, and the great reads. These guys also produce one of the very best baseball annuals in the business. Their annual has everything that the Baseball Prospectus Annual and the Baseball Forecaster are always missing.

FirstInning.com
When I need to study a prospect there is only one source for advanced stats (that won't cost you an arm and a first born) and that is FirstInning.com. All of the stats you want when you're studying up on major leaguers are here for minor leaguers. Plus - prospect lists, charts, graphs, park factors, league factors -- everything you need to seriously examine prospects is here.