Monday, May 12, 2008

Leave 'Em Alone!

I am not exactly old but when I was younger (not a kid just younger) I was often accused of smiling all the time. It was pretty much true. It was not that I walked around in never ending bliss but rather that I seemed to possess the ability to see the bright side of just about anything. I could find a reason to laugh in almost any situation. I had no problems with anyone. Yes, even the universally despised knew they had someone to lean on, a shoulder to cry on should they find themselves in need. Unfortunately, I lost that talent over the years or (being optimistic) at the very least it has been suppressed beneath a mountain of grief, betrayal and misery – what you might call life.

These days I doubt everyone’s good intentions. I count on most things ending badly. I have people that I have no choice but to consider enemies (like Spider-Man and Electro) despite wishing it were not so. I still laugh a lot but these days that laughter is about the futility of things I cannot see getting better. But despite all of my negative trends of late I still think it is pretty sad that no major league baseball team will offer Barry Bonds an opportunity to play.

There are plenty of teams that could use a player like Bonds as an upgrade to their designated hitter position or as an outfielder. A few teams even discussed bringing him in this spring but universally they all decided that it wasn’t worth it. Bonds’ lawyers have raised the issue of collusion against their client by Major League Baseball. I seriously doubt that there is any effort being made to keep him out of the game unless it is by the media which has enjoyed trashing him for years now. I don’t doubt that he brought this negativity on himself by being generally boorish and his involvement in the BALCO scandal but he isn’t the only jerk in the sport nor is he the only one in the game who has been accused of using performance enhancing drugs and has denied it.

Ask yourself this question: why is Barry Bonds who has never failed a drug test and denies the use of performance enhancing drugs not wanted in the sport and any of a dozen players who have tested positive and been suspended for it welcome to continue playing for multiple teams? Is it because he’s a better player than the assortment of unapologetic losers who have been caught? Is that why Roger Clemens is being put through the ringer (he too having never failed a drug test and constantly denying the use of any performance enhancing drug) because he was one of the best ever?

I have asked many people why they are so quick to believe the worst about the best players in the game. Almost without fail the answer comes back as an accusation of naivety on my part for giving them the benefit of the doubt. I don’t think I’m naïve if anything I’m sympathetic. I’ve been falsely accused of serious wrongdoing in the past, and punished for it despite the fact that I was completely innocent of what I was accused. I am not suggesting that I or Barry Bonds or Roger Clemens is an angel, far from it, but no one has successfully proven their wrongdoing and until then I will believe them innocent. My prediction this week is that unless you’ve been falsely accused of something you won’t be able to do the same.

Saturday, May 10, 2008

I'm a little late sharing them this week but as usual I have articles on Rotoexperts.com and CrucialTaunt.com.

Moving Up, Moving Down

This week Moving Up, Moving Down touches on a topic that is very interesting to me - The Art of Fantasy Baseball. This is an area I plan to explore a lot in the very near future. I think the Art of our game is something that every fantasy owner of every fantasy sport out there should be learning about even if at the time they aren't aware of it. It may interest you to know that I've actually begun a book based on the idea. It's good stuff on briefly touched on in the article but hopefully thought provoking nonetheless.

Crystal Ball

Anyone that has read my work for a while won't be as shocked as some by the ideas in my latest article - namely that Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens should be left alone and allowed (if they so choose) to continue to play the game that they both play so well. If you read the article you will definitely learn a thing or two about me which isn't something I do a lot. Check it out.

Tuesday, April 29, 2008

Iron Man Movie and Wayne Krivsky

New articles are up at Crucial Taunt and Roto Experts. The new Moving Up, Moving Down can be found on rotoexperts.com right here and the new Crystal Ball can be found here on CrucialSports.com.

Moving Up this week relates the new Iron Man movie to the St. Louis Cardinals. You'll have to read it to find out how I pulled that off. The new Crystal Ball makes some predictions about the Cincinnati Reds now that they've fired General Manager Wayne Krivsky.

Sunday, April 20, 2008

Check This Out:

I have pieces on Rotoexperts.com and CrucialTaunt.com this week. You can find my weekly Moving Up, Moving Down column on rotoexperts.com once a week (usually on Tuesday) and my weekly Crystal Ball coulumn on CrucialTaunt.com once a week on Fridays. Please check them out, send your friends, make some comments and check out the other great articles these two sites have to offer.

This week (as it will every week) Moving Up, Moving Down examines the performance of a ton of players off to either fast or slow starts and examines their potential to turn things around whether that would be for the bad or the good. This week features: Andruw Jones, Joey Votto, Nate McLouth and tons more.

The Crystal Ball takes a look at the St. Louis Cardinals and their potential to maintain their quick start. It's a ton of fun and you also get to see my very tongue-in-cheek predictions for the season awards.

Saturday, April 12, 2008

Joey Votto: Be Warned!!


Many don't seem to realize it but there are dozens of great minor leaguers who never get the opportunity to prove they could have been stars in the majors. This can be the result of any number of things but most commonly it is injuries, faith-lacking managers and failed (and short) auditions that are the root-cause. One such player in my eyes was Bobby Hill, a shortstop prospect for the Chicago Cubs. He was a stud at the University of Miami. He held out for major bucks after being drafted first by the White Sox and then by the Cubs. He made quick work of the minors but had the unfortunate luck of running into Dusty Baker as his first manager. Baker gave him only short and sporadic opportunities to prove himself and when he failed to make an impression quickly he was banished to the bench once more.

Dusty Baker so negatively shaped the reputation of this player that he was included in a horrible trade to the Pirates. The Pirates refused to use him as anything other than a utility infielder and sparingly at that. Despite statistically being a better player than both Jose Castillo and Jack Wilson, Hill was never given another chance as a starter. Injuries to his back limited him in recent years. He hasn't appeared in the majors since 2006 after just 523 major league at-bats. Now he is playing with the Newark Bears of the Independent League.

You're probably wondering why I would spend so much space bemoaning the fate of a player that few will remember. The reason is because it could very well be happening again. Joey Votto is a highly touted young player who can perform at both the outfield and first base positions. He is a power hitter with speed that reminds me more and more everyday of Matt Holliday of the Colorado Rockies. He was widely expected to become the starting first baseman for the Cincinnati Reds this season but then something terrible happened - Dusty Baker was hired as manager. Now Votto sits on the bench and watches 38-year old Scott Hatteberg continue to start and to hit with almost zero authority. I sincerely hope to be wrong about this but if I were a Votto owner I would trade him in the best deal I possibly could right now. Before he meets a Hillish fate.

Longoria is a Major Leaguer




It stunned everyone when Evan Longoria was sent to the minors after a Spring Training in which he was considered a lock to make the team. Personally while I was surprised he hadn't made the team I didn't necessarily think it was a bad move. Longoria although capable had nothing to lose by spending a few weeks at Triple-A.

Well now Longoria is in the major just two weeks later to replace Willy Aybar on the roster. Here's my bet that he never sees the minors again.

Year Age* Lg Tm G AB H 2B 3B HR RBI R SB CS BB SO AVG OBP SLG OPS
2006 20 A A 28 110 36 8 0 8 28 22 1 1 13 19 .327 .402 .618 1.020
2006 20 AA MON 26 105 28 5 0 6 19 14 2 1 1 20 .267 .266 .486 .752
2007 21 AA MON 105 381 117 21 0 21 76 78 4 0 51 81 .307 .403 .528 .931
2007 21 AAA DUR 31 104 28 8 0 5 19 19 0 0 22 29 .269 .398 .490 .888
2008 22 AAA DUR 7 25 5 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 4 5 .200 .333 .200 .533
2008 22 MAJ TAM 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000
*age as of 7/1 of that season

Thursday, April 10, 2008

Guys I Like (and that you should too) in the National League



Hey, just because the season has started is no reason not to tell you about the guys i targeted in my drafts and auctions this year.

Last year in the National League I targeted Josh Hamilton and I got him in my NL-only league only to lose him when the Reds traded him for Edison Volquez. I raved about Heath Bell but for some reason picked him up as a reserve instead of making him my last $1 pitcher. In my league reserves can't be kept. I targeted Kelly Johnson and traded Jonathan Sanchez (who couldn't be kept beyond the 2007 season) for a $1 Johnson.

This year in the NL I thought I would grab Eugenio Velez for a buck but the Spring Traiing hype machine pushed him to $15 in NL-only. I still got him because I believe that he will eventually win the full-time second base job. In the meanwhile he'll play all over the field and steal 25 bases.

I also targeted Johnny Cueto and Edison Volquez. I didn't get either because I refused to pay the price they demanded ($15 and $10) at the moment they came up in my auction. I still believe that both will be solid major league starters for your fantasy team this year. I don't think they'll continue to be as untouchable as they've looked in the Spring and thus far this season but still quite valuable for those of you in keeper leagues. If you have them in a re-draft league I recommend you trade them by the end of May.

In the outfield I tried to trade for Lastings Milledge and Nate McLouth (at $5a and $2) but I was only able to get McLouth from him. I think both will be awesome players this season. Milledge has the ability to develop into a 30/30 type of player. This season I wouldn't count on more than 15/20 but the rest is coming soon. McLouth is a guy that I drafted for my minor league system a long long long time ago and then gave up on him. Actually I gave up on the Pirates, but same difference. McLouth has some on-base skills that have been quietly improving and pretty good speed on the bases. I'm expecting 15/25 this season and maybe a 20/40 peak season.

Next up? American League targets...