Winning Head-to-Head Leagues

I don't play in many head-to-head leagues. This is why I'm overjoyed to recommend Winabango's article on winning such a league.

A sample:

Know you opponent’s team schedule and find a weakness - Let’s say that you are going up against a team with 4 closers and you have 2. On the surface, saves looks like a lost category. Look at the opponent’s closers though. Are any of them going up against each other during the week? Are any of them going up against your closers? If he has 2 closers facing each other, and 1 facing one of yours, then the odds are that your 2 closers should compete in the saves category that week due to the limited amount of chances his will get. In this scenario, check the waiver wire for an additional closer to try to beat him, or overwhelm him with the other pitching categories.

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Good Info on the Nationals Outfield

Ryan Church came here last month to prove that he deserved the job Nationals Manager Manny Acta bestowed upon him: starting left fielder. To this point, he has just two hits in 13 at-bats. He said Thursday, when he had the day off, that he is searching to find his timing. Acta, though, won't waver. Even with Chris Snelling, Alex Escobar and Kory Casto potential left fielders in waiting, Acta reiterated that his starting outfield will be Church in left, Nook Logan in center and Austin Kearns in right.

"They could go 0 for the rest of the games in spring training," Acta said. "Those are the guys who are going to start the year here."

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The New Marlins Closer...

Dolphin Stadium is an extreme pitchers park. Grabbing a great Marlins pitching prospect late in your draft is almost always a good idea and it worked great last season. Just ask the owners of Josh Johnson, Anibal Sanchez and Scott Olsen. Of the Marlins’ closer candidates, who I see as Kevin Gregg, Matt Lindstrom, Henry Owens and maybe Randy Messenger, I see Matt Lindstrom as by far the best candidate. Kevin Gregg’s mediocre K-rate and fly ball tendency make him an unexciting pick. Henry Owens has great strikeout potential and tends to get the groundball but his walk-rates have been really bad at times. Randy Messenger is similar to Gregg with a mediocre K-rate and isn’t a groundball pitcher. The only advantage they have is experience in the majors. Lindstrom has an amazing arm, gets the strikeouts, has an acceptable walk-rate and is an extreme groundball pitcher. That particular combination excels in a park like Dolphin Stadium. Grab Lindstrom for a couple of bucks and maybe Owens and you should have your closer bets well hedged even if someone like Gregg begins the year in the role.

Player To Know: Brayan Pena

It looks as if Brayan Pena is a shoe in to be the backup catcher for the Atlanta Braves this season. He won't be in a platoon with Brian McCann the best catcher in the National League but he will probably catch Kyle Davies starts and get a bunch of starts against lefties to get McCann occasional breaks.

From the Atlanta Journal Constitution:

Pena assigned to Davies? Brayan Pena is catching and batting fifth today vs. the Dodgers, probably a pretty good indication he’ll be assigned to catch Kyle Davies’ starts this season.

Bobby Cox indicated during pitching camp last month that he’d go back to using his backup catcher for a specific pitcher, the way he did most seasons until last year, when he started out the season with Brian McCann and veteran Todd Pratt in a platoon.

There will be no platoon this season, with the All-Star McCann expected to catch four days out of five, at least (he would probably get some of Davies’ starts along the way, especially late in the season in a playoff drive). Of course, all this is assuming Davies is the fifth starter, which I think he will be unless he falls on his face
this spring.

Pena doesn't hit for much power and he doesn't steal bases but he is an excellent contact hitter. He draws a decent number of walks and doesn't strikeout. He isn't someone you want to build around but I think he'll make a good $1 endgame catcher in NL-only leagues.

Check out these sites for Pena stats:

http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/pl/430/430910RicILb06.html

http://thebaseballcube.com/players/P/brayan-pena.shtml

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Nook Logan = Cheap Steals

Nook Logan isn't a great hitter but he has already been named the starting center fielder for the Washington Nationals. In his career he has batted .270/.319/.347 in 545 at-bats. Most of those at-bats were accumulated as a part-time player but he still managed to steal 33 bases while being caught just nine times. He could easily steal 40-50 in a full-time role as in the minors he had season totals of 22, 53, 67, 55, 37 and 46.

Take him late in your drafts or auctions and you could have a major bargain on your hands.

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Darin Erstad - Major Sleeper?

Darin Erstad is a player that any serious baseball fan knows. Erstad is the guy that might be a decent player if he could only stay on the field. His heart is huge but his tendency to run into walls and such has kept him from having an impact on the field for the majority of the last few seasons. Kenny Williams brought him into the White Sox fold this winter when the Los Angeles Angels decided not to offer him a contract.

One of the things I preach that most so-called experts counsel against is drafting the injury prone guys while they are healthy. A guy like Erstad who in a full season of at-bats could put up stats worth anywhere from $20 to $30 will be available at a huge discount. From all reports Erstad is one hundred percent healthy as spring training starts. At present he is projected to be the fourth outfielder for the White Sox behind Scott Podsednik, who has injury issues of his own as well as a slipping performance level, and Brian Anderson, a young player who was very disappointing in 2006. I'm betting that in most AL-only leagues Erstad will be available at less than ten bucks. At that price you should grab him as your fourth or fifth outfielder.
Ozzie Guillen has vowed to get back to Ozzieball this season. A big part of Ozzie's game is the stolen base. Erstad coming off the bench for say 220 at-bats could grab you 10-15 stolen bases, hit for a decent average and maybe toss in a few homers to boot. For a single digit price I'd take that in two seconds. The extra-added bonus is at less than ten bucks he should be fairly replaceable even in deep leagues.

Grab Erstad cheap or in the late rounds of your draft. I don't think you'll regret it.


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Chris Ray: A Fluke?

Chris Ray has a projected 54 BPV as of this writing on the Baseball HQ website. Such a low projection may cause HQ subscribers to greatly downgrade him.

In an article that will appear on this site soon I discuss some reasons you may not win as much as you might. One of those reasons is an over reliance on a particular source. The point being that many fantasy owners choose to adopt the philosophies pf a particular book or website and just take their word for things. On Baseball HQ this week Doug Dennis in an article called Bullpen Buyers Guide (premium) he lumps Baltimore Orioles reliever Chris Ray into a group labeled fluke alongside names like Joey Devine, David Weathers, Armando Benitez, Joe Borowski and Seth McClung. Without getting into the others on the list I want to take a look at Chris Ray and show you how the blind adaptation of a site's philosophies can cause you to lose out on valuable players.

Right off the bat I want to share that I have subscribed to Baseball HQ for years and have spent much money on their products. I do not think you can find a more professional or respected source for fantasy related information. But they do have some flaws that can leave holes in your game but therefore also avenues to exploit if you have subcribers in your league.

Chris Ray is the 25 year-old closer for the Baltimore Orioles. Ray may not have a long resume but has been an extremely solid reliever throughout his professional career. The 2006 season began with Ray installed as the closer for the Orioles and with the exception of a brief blip mid-season He was stellar for the entire season and collected the following stats: 66 IP, 45 hits, 27 walks and 51 strikeouts. Now, what HQ doesn't like is his hit-rate. HQ hates anything that they can't explain statistically and since their present doctrine dictates that BABIP is something that a pitcher cannot control any pitcher who performs far better than average is labeled a fluke. Barry Zito is downgraded on their site for the same reason. But if you look at Ray's career stats you'll see that he has always had the SKILL to limit BABIP. I'm not slamming HQ for this way of rating players. They nail far more players than they miss but nevertheless this represents a hole in the HQ rankings that can be exploited in HQ heavy leagues. Look for players with such a track record and you will find fantasy baseball bargains.