Player Profile: Bobby Hill 2B Padres

Fantasy Impact:

In my opinion Bobby Hill can still be a star for both MLB and fantasy leagues. He won't hit for an amazing average although his average shouldn't hurt you. He has a very good idea about how to get on base. If the Padres put Hill in the leadoff or second spot in the order he'll start stealing bases again and that is the strength of Bobby Hill. Playing a whole season at leadoff you might get fifty steals from Hill. Spend a dollar on Hill or use your last pick of the draft on him. Not many will be advocating such a move I'm sure but its finally time for Hill to get his shot don't miss out.

Background:
Bobby Hill has had a raw deal the last few years. After being a star in high school and being drafted in the fifth round by the then California Angels. He chose not to sign and went to the University of Miami where he became a huge college star. He was drafted by the Chicago White Sox in the second round but didn’t sign (Scott Boras…’nuff said). He played with the Independent Newark Bears where he was incredible. He hit .326 and stole 81 bases. The Cubs drafted him in the second round in 2000 and it was pretty unanimous that Hill wouldn’t need long in the minors. Then he ran into Don Baylor who preferred Delino Deshields and questioned Hill’s attitude. Hill never got another real shot. He was traded to the Pirates and despite spending most of four years in the majors has accumulated only 523 career at-bats. All the while with the Pirates Hill, as an occasional starter and pinch hitter, had a .343obp and sat on the bench behind not one but two infielders (Jose Castillo and Jack Wilson) who are just barely capable of .300obp. Now Hill is finally free of the Pirates thanks to the Padres who will finally give Hill a chance to compete for a job. The bad news is he must compete with top prospect Josh Barfield. Hill has been mediocre with the glove thus far but I expect that with regular playing time that would improve.

Statistics:

Year	Team	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2002	CHC	59	190	26	48	7	2	4	20	17	42	6	1	.253	.327	.374	.701
2003	CHC	5	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	.250	.400	.250	.650
2003	PIT	1	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	.333	.500	.333	.833
2004	PIT	126	233	28	62	7	2	2	27	20	39	0	3	.266	.353	.339	.692
2005	PIT	58	93	12	25	6	0	0	11	9	17	0	0	.269	.343	.333	.676
Career		249	523	67	137	20	4	6	58	48	100	6	4	.262	.343	.350	.693

Player Profile: Rocco Baldelli

Fantasy Impact:
Assuming Rocco Baldelli is back to 100% he should be a solid player for 2006. It is tough to assume he's healthy after the bad luck Baldelli experienced last year. I'm basing my optimism on the large contract the D'Rays gave him after missing the entire 2005 season with a torn ACL and then Tommy John Surgery in July. What worries me most is the possible loss of speed after his injuries. Back to normal I'd feel comfortable predicting a .280/20/80/25 season. He doesn't draw many walks but was making progress on controlling strikeouts before getting hurt. If he can play he'll be the D'Ray centerfielder.

Background:
As Baldelli flashed thru the minors he was often compared to Yankee Hall of Famer Joe DiMaggio. He probably should have been the 2003 American League Rookie of the Year. He faced stiff competition from Hideki Matsui and Angel Berroa. Many belive that players coming from the Japanese leagues shouldn't be elidgible for the ROY award. Berroa had a good season but turned out to be a one hit wonder. Despite his injuries the Devil Rays signed Baldelli to a six year $32 million contract.


Statistics:

Year	Team	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2003	TB	156	637	89	184	32	8	11	78	30	128	27	10	.289	.326	.416	.742
2004	TB	136	518	79	145	27	3	16	74	30	88	17	4	.280	.326	.436	.762
Career		292	1155	168	329	59	11	27	152	60	216	44	14	.285	.326	.425	.751

Finding Fantasy Baseball Sleepers

A Fantasy Baseball Sleeper means something different to every owner out there. Most people define a sleeper as a player who is underrated and unknown. If you are in a 13 Team National League Only League you will have a much different view of who is and isn't a sleeper than the person in a 10 Team Mixed League. Victor Diaz may be undraftable in your league but invaluable in mine. Read More Below...

The big question isn't really who is a sleeper (it isn't ???) but rather how to find a sleeper. The easy answer is to know more than your opponents. There is no doubt that knowledge is power in fantasy baseball. But in tougher leagues you may find yourself evenly matched with your opponents. You all know that Mike Lowell has declined the last couple of years and majorly in 2005. You will all also know that Fenway Park tends to add life to a flyball hitting slugger's numbers. You may also know that Lowell's decline coinsided with the testing for steroids. The difference in a league where you have many knowledgeable owners is the ability to put your knowledge into context. Is Mike Lowell automatically the starter? Why? Because he has a big contract? What does that mean for Kevin Youkilis? Who starts at first? Even if Lowell starts how much of a chance will he get? How will a potential Manny trade impact Lowell? or Youkilis? These are the type of questions you have to ask yourself constantly.

The purpose of this site will be to try and provide the context for your knowledge. I'll point you to good sources of that context. I'll give you profiles of players. I'll keep you up to date on player news. I'll give you a regular dose of sleepers some for the ten team yahoo league and some for the thirteen team ultra only league. Feel free to send me your rosters and I'll help you with your keeper lists. E-mail me anytime at bigjon_2002@hotmail.com or just comment on this site.

Coming right up? Some infield sleepers you may find interesting.

Reds Trade Sean Casey to the Pirates

Cross Brad Eldred off your list for 2006. The Pirates have acquired Sean Casey for Dave Williams a left handed starter who after years of injuries has started to establish himself. The Pirates want Eldred to get more seasoning in the minors. Despite hitting forty homeruns in the minors and majors last year he had over 150 strikeouts. The Pirates have money to spend and they've chosen to spend it on Casey rather than the gigantic hole at third (and short and second in my opinion).

Check out this story about the trade:

The Pittsburgh native Casey, 31, did not want to discuss the details of the deal until after returning to Pittsburgh to complete his physical with the club. But he did express initial disappointment upon hearing his name included in trade rumors this winter.

"I want to retire with the Cincinnati Reds. I don't want to go anywhere," Casey said. " I love Cincinnati, the fans, the team and the charitable work that I do. If I have to go, and I hope I don't, Pittsburgh is the best place because that is where I was born and raised."

By adding Casey, the Pirates address their need for a left-handed run producer at first base to bat behind All-Star Jason Bay. A three-time National League All-Star, Casey has a .305 career batting average with 118 home runs and 605 RBIs in nine big-league seasons, eight of which he spent in Cincinnati.

Casey batted .324 with 24 home runs and 99 RBIs in 2004 but saw his power numbers fall off significantly last season after he sustained a left shoulder injury in May while diving for a foul ball. Casey was batting .312 with nine home runs and 58 RBIs when he suffered a season-ending concussion at PNC Park on Sept. 16 following a collision at first base with Pirates catcher Humberto Cota.

Also check this story on the impact on Brad Eldred:

The addition of Casey, even if he is not signed beyond 2006, allows the Pirates to give powerful first base prospect Brad Eldred another year to improve his pitch selection, contact and defense at Triple-A. Eldred combined to club 40 home runs in the Minor Leagues and big leagues last season, but he also struck out 159 times in 469 at-bats.

If you can stash Eldred away do it. He'll be back in 2007 and he has some serious power. I'll have more on the fantasy impact of this and the other Hot Stove Transactions soon.

Prospect Profiles - Rich Hill

I have a weakness in fantasy baseball. Prospects. Prospects are my kryptonite. For those of you into Superman (or with a girlfriend who watches Smallville) I don't have to tell you there are many types of kryptonite. There is the regular old Green Kryptonite which will kill Superman but slowly (albeit painfully). But what we're talking about here is Red Kryptonite. Red Kryptonite doesn't kill Superman it changes his personality, his caution and restraint go out the window. Unlike Superman I've learned to avoid the Green Kryptonite but the red stuff? It catches me everytime. On this site we will avoid the Green Kryptonite Prospects and concentrate on the Red Kryptonite guys. Why? Because in Fantasy Baseball the green guys will cause you serious pain. With the Red guys at least you'll have fun. I'll let you know when we get to the Black Kryptonite, that is some heavy stuff!

Rich Hill might sneak past a few guys in your league. He led the minors with a 13.4 K/9IP in 2005. His control went from terrible in his earlier minor league days to pretty damn amazing for AAA Iowa in 2005. Yeah? you might say. So, how is that supposed to help me get Hill cheap?you might add. Simple. Take a look at Rich Hill's numbers in the majors last year:

	Team	G	GS	W	L	SV	CG	SHO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP	BAA
2005	CHC	10	4	0	2	0	0	0	23.2	25	24	24	3	17	21	9.13	1.77	.260
Career		10	4	0	2	0	0	0	23.2	25	24	24	3	17	21	9.13	1.77	.260

Yeah, I don't care what league you're in those numbers will scare off the casual bidders no question. Hill's control went away with his promotion to the majors. He simply lost track of what sent him flying thru the minors in 2005. That was throwing strikes in case you weren't paying attention. He'll be better when he returns in 2005, especially if he gets to start the season with the team. Flying thru the system from A to AA to AAA to the majors takes a toll on a player. I'm confident he'll be fine. The Cubs are so confident that he's ready they're shopping Mark Prior and Kerry Wood around for a big time bat. Bobby Abreu? Maybe, but a rotaion of Zambrano, Prior, Wood and Hill would be damn fun to watch. Damn fun.

Okay here's his deal: Rich Hill has an amazing curveball. An unhittable 12-to-6 curveball. That combined with a low 90's fastball that he's finally learned to control (he attributes it to greater mental focus, the coaches say he cleaned up his delivery - whatever, right?) His change-up is constantly improving. And he's a lefty, which guarantees the opportunity will be there. He's 26 so the time is now. A big huge chunk of Red Kryptonite.

How To Prepare For the 2006 Season Part One

Are you ready to start preparing for the 2006 Fantasy Baseball Season? I hope so because you may well fall behind your team mates if you aren't. Lucky for you I'm here to provide you with the help you need. So lets get it started.

The absolute first step is to analyze your team. No one should know your team better than you do. Did you do well last season? If so why? If not why? Understanding why and how you finished the way you did will absolutely help you up your performance in 2006. If you're already doing this you're on your way to success. Here are some questions you want to ask yourself about the team you ended the 2005 season holding:

• How many players can you keep?
• How many players do you have that can be kept?
• Of the players you own that can be kept how many are at what seem to be bargain prices?
• Do you have more quality keepers than you can bring with you into 2006?
• Of your high priced players are any of them tradeable? How do you know?
• Of the players you don't consider keepable, have you researched them thoroughly?
• If you have researched them thoroughly and yet still won't keep them, might they be desirable by someone else?
• Have you researched the players you do plan to keep?
• If you haven't done all these things why not?
  

To help you out with this I'm going to use a friend's team as an example. He finished in first place of a very competitive AL Only League. At the end of the season there were eight teams in contention for six spots. This is a twelve team league. Okay here are the Blue Sox:

Hitters: (2005 values according to the amazing Budman)

John Buck 11 (4.10) - Buck has power and thats about it.
Jason Varitek 10B (15.71) - Varitek had a good year, but his contract is up.
Carlos Pena 18 (5.38) - After a horrible start he was worth 13.29 in the 2nd half.
Chris Shelton 0 (13.73) - Shelton was another 2nd half stud worth 19.69.
Ronnie Belliard 8A (15.52) - Frankly i didn't expect him to repeat his success in 2004 but he did it.
Placido Polanco 60F (12.53) - The Tigers were rocking in the 2nd half.
Omar Infante 12 (2.65) - Well not everyone...Omar was worth 1.29 in the 2nd.
Orlando Hudson 10B (11.67) - Hudson was hurt late but not too seriously.
Alex Rodriguez 46B (46.71) - The MVP was also the fantasy MVP.
Michael Young 11B (31.70) - Young had an amazing year but can he repeat?
Mark Kotsay 14A (16.33) - One of the most underrated players in baseball.
Lew Ford 26 (11.80) - Lew Ford has lots of competition to deal with in 2006.
Manny Ramirez 39A (34.22) - Manny started slow but was his usual self when it was all over.
Johnny Damon 26A (28.40) - Damon was amazing until nagging injuries took a toll late in the year.
Vladimir Guerrero 42A (33.22) - Not an amazing year by his standards but still elite.

Reserved Hitters:

Bronson Sardinha 10M (minors) - This Yankee prospect repeated AA and had an off year.
Juan Gonzalez 6 (-4.30) - As usual Juan Gonzalez couldn't stay healthy.
Val Majewski 5M (minors) - Val is building a following.
Jason Botts 0 (-3.48) Botts had a great year for AAA Oklahoma but can't be kept.

Pitchers:

John Lackey 10A (19.05) - Lackey is an underrated star in the making.
Danys Baez 22 (18.94) - His K/9 keeps declining but he is an in demand player in MLB.
Jesse Crain 10 (9.50) - He might grab a closer role yet.
Paul Byrd 9 (17.13) - Another underrated stud pitcher.
Mariano Rivera 28B (28.92) - Typical Mo, studly as usual.
Scott Shields 1B (14.0) - A great reliever can be just as valuable as a starter.
Joe Borowski 15F (-1.98) - A disappointing year for a guy named Joe.
Barry Zito 25 (21.22) - Zito is solid, a rock for your staff.
Mike Mussina 25 (11.04) - Mike needs to get his act together or he'll lose his spot to Aaron Small. J/K
Scott Sauerbeck 6F (-3.25) - Yuck, when was Scott last worth drafting? 2002

Reserved Pitchers:

Roy Halladay 27 (21.24) - A late season broken leg ruined a possible Cy Young season.
Jason Arnold 5M (minors) - Arnold isn't ready for the majors, but he'll be back...
Carl Pavano 20 (-1.04) - Carl crashed in NY, He has vowed to redeem himself. Good Luck.
Abe Alvarez 0 (6.66) - A decent lefty reliever.
Jason Davis 0 (-2.80) - Jason has so much potential. Wait for him to reach it before drafting him.

The league the Blue Sox owner is in allows him to keep twelve players from his roster and any minor leaguers that haven't been activated. In order to win the Blue Sox traded away a lot of young talent for B players (players that can't be kept). Still he has some talent to work with. He has some big salary players who despite their price can be worth keeping (Manny/ Vlad/ Damon/ Baez/ Zito). A lot of owners won't keep players at salaries like these because they think it puts them in a tough position in the auction. But consider this: In keeper leagues you need to ensure you'll get your fair share of the available value. On a team like the Blue Sox, who don't have many bargains it can be a good idea to keep the expensive studs. In a keeper league going into the auction without a solid roster of players forces you to take chances. You'll have to take chances because the other teams may have a huge advantage in talent over you. If you have a solid base of stats going into the auction (even if you don't have tons of money to spend) you can relax and just look for value.

Here are my keepers possibilities for the Blue Sox

1B Carlos Pena 18
2B Ronnie Belliard 8A
OF Mark Kotsay 14A


OF Manny Ramirez 39A
OF Vlad Guerrero 42A

SP John Lackey 10A
SP Paul Byrd 9
SP Barry Zito 25
SP Roy Halladay 27

RP Danys Baez 22
RP Jesse Crain 10

Why:

Carlos Pena - Carlos Pena at 18 may be a bit high but I suggest considering him a keeper because someone may want him at that price. Shop him around and get a sense of what the league thinks of his value.
Ronnie Belliard - Ronnie Belliard as much as i don't like him has put together two quality years in a row so he has obvious value.If like me you don't like him just trade him to someone who does for something you do like. Just remember that his value doesn't go away just because you have no faith in him.
Mark Kotsay - He is right about value. It a decent price and a decent value so keeping him is an easy option. Players at value are nice to keep especially when they are as solid and steady as Kotsay.
Manny Ramirez - Manny may be on the move to the other league.he'll be tough to trade. If you can do it do it. If he stays in the AL you have a great player at value or just under it.

Vlad Guerrero - Vlad is so popular that trading him even at $42 is no tough. Someone will want him.You may be surprised how many peole will keep a player like Vlad even at high prices.
John Lackey - John Lackey is an awesome value. I'd even extend him to 15.
Paul Byrd - The MLB clubs are starting to recognize his talent. Its about time fantasy leagues did the same. He may be tough to trade. His percieved value is often too low. But at that price it might be possible to get a good load for him.
Barry Zito - Zito is another player that could be on the move. He is at a decent price however and someone may bite. Pitching is tough to find in the AL.
Roy Halladay - Halladay is a little overrated. He hasn't been very consistent, mostly because of health issues. When he is on few are better but something always seems to happen. Nevertheless he is extremely popular and should get some interest.
Danys Baez - Yet another player that could be on the move. A closer that might be cheap enough to draw some interest. Even in a tough 5x5 league there is always someone who over values saves.
Jesse Crain - There have been some quiet rumors that the Twins would consider trading Nathan. The Twins could probably get quite a package for him and they have a number of capable arms in the bullpen. Crain would definitely be in line for the job. Most know this which would probably create some interest. he's worth 10 in any case which is the best kind of closer in waiting.

Please note that I would never recommend someone keep this particular combination nor do I think all the players on the list should be traded but I think its important to understand which players are at a price that allows them to be reasonably kept and how the league values them. This in my opinion is what the Blue Sox have to work with. I would start shopping the high priced players around and see if I could get a collection of bargains. i wouldn't expect to get too many sexy bargains (Grady Sizemore @ $10 types) but you can probably get a few middle class bargains (you know the types I mean Jacque jones @ 12 or Aubrey Huff @ 15 -they aren't sexy but there is meat on the bones for Manny or Vlad. Zito might bring an even bigger haul if he stays in the AL. I'd be trying to trade an outfielder for infield help in the shoes of the Blue Sox. But you can't do any of that until you undertake step two in the plan: Evaluate the other teams. The questions you ask of other teams are the exact same questions you ask about your own team. While you're asking these questions of each team here are a few steps you should be taking:

• Make a list of the players that will ceratinly be back in the draft.
• Make a list of all the possible keepers on each team.
• Look for teams that might match up with you in a trade.
• Try to understand the strategy of the owner by looking at the players on his team.
• Rank the teams in order of strength. You want to try and match or exceed the value of the best team or at least know how you'll manage that.

Fantasy Baseball Player Evaluations or Three Guys I Like For 2006 and One I Don't

I love this time of year. Although I live for the baseball season I have to say that my favorite thing about baseball is watching teams develop. So obviously trades and free-agent signings really get me going. With a passion for watching teams build I suppose its pretty easy to figure out how I gravitated towards fantasy sports and baseball in particular. I love to hear stories about baseball and I also enjoy hearing about your fantasy league dramas. Please feel free to share any stories or ideas or strategies that have worked for you. You can reach me by e-mail at bigjon_2002@hotmail or IM me at bigjonempire on both aol and yahoo messenger I have a few player comments for you today.

Jason Giambi should be a solid pick for 2006

As hard as this may be to believe there are fantasy owners out there that still don’t believe that Jason Giambi is back. If you have such people in your leagues jump all over any opportunity to get Giambi at what is most likely a bargain price. Believe me, Jason Giambi is just as good as ever. I don’t believe he is any more susceptible to injury than any other player. His plate patience is amazing and his power is still great. The Yankee lineup will continue to provide plenty of protection and plenty of baserunners to drive home. He is the best first baseman in the AL.

Barry Bonds is not a good pick for 2006

At the same time I would be very cautious about owning Barry Bonds. I wouldn’t want to own him at anything close to full price. He is old and getting older which isn’t a good compliment to suffering serious knee injuries. I do expect he’ll play and show the same great patience at the plate and when healthy he’ll show great power as well, I just don’t believe he’ll be healthy enough to play everyday. When his knees and legs bother him his power will also suffer. Barry Bonds is a great player and I hope he finishes his career on an up note I just won’t be owning him in any fantasy leagues.

Jeremy Reed could be a nice sleeper in 2006

Jeremy Reed will bounce back and start to approach the solid outfielder his minor league experience suggests in 2006. He probably won’t ever be great and has done little to suggest he might be. He has shown himself to be capable of getting on base at a decent but not spectacular rate. He has a little pop in his bat but not the sort of power that fantasy leaguers are seeking. He has speed but isn’t a great base stealer. Unless the Mariners make some changes his defense should keep him in the lineup batting second and playing center field. He’ll steal a few bases and hit a few homeruns and score a decent number of runs dependent on the lineup behind him. Although what I’ve written may seem to suggest he is a better real player than fantasy player (and that is true) I think Reed is a player you should consider acquiring cheaply especially in 5x5 leagues that use runs as a category.

Dontrelle Willis is an awesome pitcher but watch his strikeout rate

Dontrelle Willis is had a very good season. I think D-Train is just one element short of becoming a fantasy superstar. Oh, don’t mistake me for thinking he isn’t already very popular and worthy of a spot on almost any fantasy roster. It’s just that his strikeout rate is falling as he improves his control. In 2003 Dontrelle had a strikeout rate of 7.9 for every 9IP and a walk rate of 3.25 for every 9IP. He looked amazing most of that season because his strikeout rate made up for any control problems he may have had. In 2004 I believe he spent the year attempting to pitch with greater control. He wasn’t altogether successful although his walk rate dropped to 3.15bb/9IP. His attempts to pitch in the strikezone resulted in a greater number of hits allowed and fewer strikeouts (a rate of 6.4k/9IP). This season Dontrelle has improved his walk rate dramatically (2.15bb/9IP) and has allowed only 186 hits in 209 innings.).His Strikeout rate is still lower than his 2003 level and a little lower than you might expect given his minor league numbers. I don’t have any grand conclusions to draw about this I merely point it out as something to watch. If his strikeout rate falls any further I’ll start to worry. I actually think he is likely to increase his strikeout rate back to around 7k/9IP. His minor league strikeout rates were consistently greater than 7k/9IP. At 23 years old Dontrelle is still learning to pitch. If he gets his strikeout rate up he’ll be worthy of a 1st round pick in 2007.