The Auction Budget Split, 70/30?

I received this e-mail recently:

Hi there, I just read your entry here:

http://www.advancedfantasybaseball.com/2011/03/building-your-auction-budget.html

I'm writing to ask a question regarding the building the budget paragraph. I'm in a 16 team (5x5) weekly H2H league. We can have 22 players on our roster. That means 352 total players are available in the pool. Given this, would you still project to a 70/30 split on finances? How do you arrive at the 70/30 number in the 1st place. I feel like that is the one thing not touched upon in this article.

Many thanks,

Michael

Hi Michael,

The 70/30 split for hitting/pitching is based on the belief that hitting is easier to project than pitching. It takes into account the difficulty in projecting and unpredictable nature of some pitching stats by reducing your risk. Less money spent on pitching equals less risked. This is not by any means a ratio that you need to stick with. In reality the value of players should be 50/50 since there are typically the same number of hitting and pitching categories.

Mail Bag: Trade for Grady Sizemore? and More!

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I am in a 4x4 league with American League ONLY & a cap of $26.00 AND I am in 4th to last place & I have Francisco Liriano locked in at $2.10 / 2007-2010. I have been offered Chris Ray (see below) by a contending team, now I sort of still have faith in Liriano but was wondering if it would be worth it to me to trade Liriano for 1 of the following to get out of locking me into him next year at $2.10? Like I said I was offerd Chris Ray but I can counter with 1 of his other bench / injured guys? Your thoughts on the following:

1.) Should I trade Liriano for one of the guys below?

2.) If yes, then who would you want? Please give me top 3 choices if there are even a top 3 choices to list.

Ray, Chris RP BAL .10 2008
Lowell, Mike 3B BOS 1.80 2009
Lowrie, Jed SS BOS 1.00 2008
Aviles, Mike SS KC .30 2008
Matsuzaka, Daisuke SP BOS 1.50 2007 - 2010
Brignac, Reid SS TB .20 2009

Thanks, Jay

Hey Jay,

I still have faith in Liriano coming around but at $2.10 (especially in a 4x4) I can see why you might like to get out from beneath the contract. Chris Ray at .10 isn't a bad option. His talent is great, unfortunately George Sherrill is pitching very well and saves may not come for a while. But at that price I think he'll have value as a quality middle reliever. I'm assuming that you are more in dump mode than fight for every point mode. I would ask for two off this list of players and see if he bites.

1. Mike Avilles .30 - Just announced he'll miss the rest of the season after having Tommy John Surgery. But this isn't as big a deal for hitter as it is for pitchers. I think he will greatly improve on his value in 2010.
2. Reid Brignac .20 - He proved in a recent call-up that he has some skills. The Rays are going to have to play him or trade him next year if they want to get any value from him. He is a former top prospect that underachieved for a while. I think he'll still be a top 10 SS in the AL in the not too distant future.
3. Jed Lowrie 1.00 - Pretty obvious that SS is a weak position in the AL. I like Lowrie to have a Pedroia-like development. This is not to say I think he'll have a MVP season but I think he'll be a very solid middle infielder.
4. Mike Lowell 1.80 - Lowell is hurting right now but I still believe he'll have an impact after the break. he just needs to have regular rest. At 1.80 he is a decent keep for 2010 if he stays in the AL.
5. Chris Ray .10 - A solid middle reliever who has a chance at saves in the future. See comments above.
6. Dice-K 1.50 - Dice-K needs to get straight again but I like his chances at a comeback. His stuff is still too good to ignore.

***

Hi Jon,

First off -- want to say that I love the site. Found you via a link on Razzball (another favorite of mine) and really appreciate the insight you provide.

Decided I'd take you up on the free advice offer. I have a trade in the works that could really define my season and I'm torn. I'm in a 10-team 6x6 roto league that counts OPS and Holds. I'm in a position where I need to clear an OF spot because I have Manny and Josh Hamilton coming back within the next several days-- both of whom I think will produce as expected. I also have Braun, Justin Upton, Crawford, Nelson Cruz and Brad Hawpe starting for me so I'm deep.

I have the opportunity to trade Cruz and Hawpe for Roy Halladay and Sizemore. Normally I would do this in a heartbeat but Grady's elbow (and the news that he will most likely need surgery in the offseason) scares the bejesus out of me. I can sweeten this deal by getting Slowey for Lowe as well (is that an upgrade?) and do need to gain significant ground in wins, WHIP and ERA so Halladay would be huge. I just worry that I'm giving up way too much offensive production for a guy that might get shut down in August because his team is 30 games out of first. On the other hand, if Grady stays healthy and produces then this appears to be a steal for me.

Is this trade worth the risk? Really look forward to your thoughts on this one.

Thanks Jon!

You have a pretty interesting situation here. You obviously have a stacked outfield.

Manny Ramirez
Josh Hamilton
Ryan Braun
Carl Crawford
Nelson Cruz
Brad Hawpe
Justin Upton

This is a very deep group. Any combination of five would be a winner for you and adding Sizemore to the mix just makes it that much more exciting. If you did the trade you would be left with an outfield and utility of Ramirez, Hamilton, Sizemore, Braun, Crawford, Upton -- even in a ten team league that is impressive. If Sizemore is healthy he is likely better than either Cruz or Hawpe. Trading one of these guys for Halladay is a great move for you. The question becomes is gaining Halladay worth the risk of trading Hawpe for Sizemore. I would have to say that it is.

In your best case scenario Sizemore can finish the season and plays up to his normal standards and provides you with close to 20/20 in the second half and you get an ace starter in Halladay. The worst case scenario is Sizemore gets hurt and you have to find a new utility player. You still get the upside of adding Halladay. You are definitely taking a risk but I think a good one. You always run the risk of injuries. Any one of your other outfielders could be hurt at any time, its just part of the game. Sizemore would not be the first player to play through this type of injury. I also would not be shocked to see the Indians DH Sizemore quite a bit and give Hafner some starts at first base.

I would do this deal. Thanks for sharing with me.

***

Hi Jon,

Need some more pitching advice for week 14. Again, I start 6 (min. 4 SP, min 1 RP and 1 utility) in a 12 team points based H2H League.


• Correia @ ARI (Davis), @ SF (Zito)
• Cueto @ PHI (Hamels), @ NYM (Santana)
• Dempster vs. ATL (Vasquez), vs. STL (most likely to happen if CHI reshuffles its rotation right before the break
• Greinke @ DET (French)
• Jackson vs. CLE (Lee)
• Marquis vs. WAS (Stammen), vs. ATL (Jurrjens)
• Danks vs. CLE (Pavano)
• Nolasco @ ARI (Haren)

• Franklin @ MIL (3), @ CHI (3)
• Aardsma vs. BAL (3), vs. TEX (4)
• Soria @ DET (3), @ BOS (4)

Thanks,

Sean

Hey Sean,

Hopefully I can do better than last week for you...

Greinke @DET is a must start.
Jackson vs CLE
Danks vs CLE
Nolasco @ARI
Correia @ARI and @ SF
Soria
Franklin

Good luck!

***

Hey Jon

Wanted to get your thoughts on a few trade offers I'm thinking about. This league includes OPS so please bear that in mind.

Jason Bay's owner is looking to move him and pick up some speed. Here are 2 offers he's posed to me:
1. Bay & Stephen Drew for Kinsler & Victorino
2. Bay & Zimmerman for Victorino & Adrian Gonzalez

Thanks a ton!

Dan

Hey Dan,

I'm not excited about either deal for you. I would not do the Kinsler deal. The Gonzalez deal is doable (I would not do it but it isn't an awful deal) but if he's really desperate for steals I would expect him to make you a better offer. One that doesn't end up taking away more power than you actually get back. Offer him Victorino for just Bay that is much fairer than you throwing in a top player for a mid-tier performer.

Good luck.

Mailbag - Comeback Players and Pitching Matchups

I'm struggling to get back on schedule. I hope to be there no later than Wednesday. Here's acouple of e-mails questions Iwas able to answer recently. I try to get to every question or request within 24 hours. If you have a question please feel free to send it to me at Jon@AdvancedFantasyBaseball.com or via twitter (@bigjonwilliams), or facebook (there is a link in the sidebar).

Hey Jon,

I was looking at my FA list today after a week where I was defeated by
a score of 8-5-1. It was a really down week because that was the first
time someone other than my buddy Max Estes beat me in this league and we are in
the 3rd season. Anyways, I was looking to add guys that could possibly
help me in the future so I was wondering about guys like:

-Garrett Atkins: will he receive enough playing time to
actually be a force in fantasy, and will it be too hard to roster him on my team
where I already own Youkilis, MigCab, and Howard for 1st and 3rd and INF
positions.

-Alex Gordon: He worries me because he is coming off hip
surgery, but in a minor league game yesterday he cracked a 2 run bomb.
Will he be able to comeback and make a force to be reckoned with. Also the
same worry about being able to roster him on my team because he is 1st and
3rd.

-Ryan Doumit: What's the deal about holding onto 2
catchers? Is it a good idea to have 2, or not because up until now I
really haven't had any back up for Soto, but Soto gets rested at least once a
week, and I am worried about Doumit being able to hit with a wrist injury he is
recovering from.

-Chris Iannetta: Same catcher question as Doumit, but also
will Iannetta get the playing time to make a comeback this season?

-Howie Kendrick: I know I have asked you about him before,
but when do you think he will come up and do you think he will be on his game
when he does. My only second baseman is Robinson Cano and sometimes he
worries me because of his past, but this year he had a great start so will he
have a bad ending?

-Clay Buchholz: When will Boston bring him up? Will he
make a fantasy impact? What's your take on him because I wouldn't mind
finding roster spot for this kid.

-Chris Volstad: I was eyeing Volstad earlier this year, but
couldn't get him. Then his owner dropped him after his struggles in 4
consecutive games. What do you think about Volstad?

-Gary

Hey Gary,

Atkins seems to be warming up a bit but I think he'll be sharing time the rest of the season.

I like Gordon. I don't think the Royals will let him come back before his health is no longer a factor so I would pick him up if you can.

I like Doumit but wrist injuries can sap a player's power for a while. Carrying two catchers is a good idea when you have the room. Especially when Soto is your number one and he's been at best inconsistent.

I think the Rockies will have a tough time keeping Ianetta out of the lineup if he's hitting but he will definitely have to earn his way back.

With Macier Izturis doing well Kendrick will get plenty of time to find his way in the minors. He'll be back when the team and the player have their confidence restored. There's just no way to tell when that will be.

I believe Buchholz will be stuck in the minors until September. Unless there is a trade that sends him elsewhere. He isn't the problem, it's the clogged Red Sox roster.

If you can stash Volstad on your bench I would grab him especially in keeper leagues. He should come around soon. He has great stuff and should be rostered in most leagues.

Good luck, Gary.

Hi Jon,

Who would be my best pitching lineup this upcoming week? I play in
a 12 team points based head to head league. I can start 6 pitchers -
minimum 4 SP and minimum 1 RP and 1 RP or SP.
My initial thought was to start
Danks, Greinke, Jackson, Nolasco plus Aardsma and Franklin. But, I am
intrigued in starting Correia and I am always leary to starting to SP who pitch
against each other. Thoughts?

Danks @ KC (Greinke)
Greinke vs. CHW (Danks)
Jackson @ MIN (Liriano)
Nolasco vs. WAS (Olsen) vs. PIT (Ohlendorf)
Correia vs. HOU (Rodriguez)
Cueto vs. ARI (Garland)
Dempster vs. MIL (McClung)

Aardsma @ NYY (3), @ BOS (3)
Franklin vs. SF (4), @ CIN (3)
Soria vs. MIN (3), vs. CHW (4)

Thanks,
Sean

Hey Sean,

Sorry I'm late getting back to you Sean.I'm still dealing with my computer problems. I would go like this. I like Cueto's strikeout ability against Arizona's free swingers more than Nolasco against the patient lineup of the Nationals. I don't worry about pitchers going against each other even if I'm desperate for wins. I play the best match-ups and hope that everyone pitches well.

Grienke
Jackson
Danks
Ceuto
Franklin
Soria

Good luck, Sean.