Jose Bautista, Best of the Best?

Wow.

Last night Jose Bautista hit his 17th and 18th homeruns of the season. His fantastic start to this season has kicked off (ouch, sorry Football Fans) a debate not on whether he is for real (no longer much doubt about that) but if Bautista might be the best player in MLB! I'm not quiteready to take the title from Albert Pujols just yet. But I have to admit, Bautista is looking a lot like Pujols' Buster Douglas.

As of this writing, Bautista is hitting .364/.509/.841 with 18 homers, 37 runs, 31 RBI, and even five stolen bases. This complemented by a 22.2 percent walk rate, and just a 15.9 strikeout percentage. His .323 BABIP is high (a career high for him) but not not so high you might start calling him absurdly lucky or anything. Obviously, you'll have a tough time adding him to your fantasy team if you haven't already. If you own him he is no doubt worth whatever you paid.

A few Bautista links followed by other links you may be interested to read.

Is Jose Bautista the Best Hitter in the AL?
Essentially what it comes down to is how much weight you put on the most recent performance. If you think Bautista’s eight month power binge is evidence that he’s a changed hitter, then it’s hard to get away from the conclusion that he has passed Miguel Cabrera and is now the best hitter in the American League. More conservative types might want to see him keep this up a little bit longer before making drastic changes in their evaluations. I’m not sure either side has enough evidence to be clearly right or wrong, honestly.

José Bautista breaks down a life-changing home run, explaining the power swing that’s made him a star

“Last year was magical for me,” he says, settling by his locker in Dunedin, as footage of his homer loads on a laptop. “I made a lot of adjustments and some other things fell into place.” But to count among the perennial greats—that’s been his dream since he was five years old. “You have one great season,” he says with a smile. “Why wouldn’t you want to repeat it?”

Long-toss debate shakes up MLB draft

The Owasso, Okla., native surged to the head of the high school class this year thanks to a fastball that reached 100 mph this season, a beyond-his-years cutter and the sort of mature approach scouts believe can land him in the major leagues by 2013. Dylan Bundy’s ascent toward the end of the spring sent him to the top of at least one American League team’s draft board, according to a scouting director, and Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein called him the top talent available.

Eric Hosmer And The Gathering Horde

The argument for Eric Hosmer, though, is simply that he was dominating Triple-A to such an extent that he simply had nothing left to learn against minor league pitching, and keeping him in the minors would hinder his development. Most hitting prospects – even most top hitting prospects – are not finished products as rookies. Yes, there’s a chance that Hosmer is Albert Pujols, who was one of the five best players in baseball on his first day in the major leagues – but more likely than not, he’ll be a better player as a sophomore than he is as a rookie. The more reps he gets this year against major league pitching, the more likely he is to go off on the league next year – and next year, the Royals will want their best team on the field from day one, because next year their playoff odds figure to be a lot higher than 10%.

Updates on Strasburg, Ankiel, Wang, Perez
Stephen Strasburg was in Washington yesterday for a scheduled check-up with Nationals orthopedist Wiemi Douoguih and will begin throwing off a bullpen mound "any day now," according to general manager Mike Rizzo.

This Just In: The Mariners Suck!

For a season and a good part of two months, the Mariners have had pitching and known what they lacked - offense. So they broke camp this year with Milton Bradley batting third and Jack Cust at DH. Now Miguel Olivo has batted cleanup and so has journeyman infielder Adam Kennedy. Chone Figgins has been, as the Cleveland broadcast team said last week, "a bitter disappointment."
Fixing the Royals Lineup...

You may recall that when Eric Hosmer was called up, I suggested that he bat leadoff. This led to a discussion with Nate Bukaty and Steven St. John on 810 WHB, with Nate suggesting that for clubhouse reasons it wasn’t practical to lead off with Hosmer, but that you might be able to do it with Alex Gordon. Which was fine with me. At this stage of their careers, Hosmer and Gordon are pretty similar offensive players – left-handed hitters who can hit for a good average, will take a walk, and have power to the gaps if not to the bleachers, and while neither one is a threat for 40 steals, they both have the speed to take the extra base and occasionally catch the opponents napping with a steal.

Sean Burroughs Returns to MLB
Son of former major leaguer Jeff Burroughs, who hit 240 home runs and was AL MVP in 1974, the younger Burroughs led his team to Little League World Series titles in 1992 and 1993. By the time he was 18, he was nearly his dad's size at 6-2, 200, and when he was selected ninth overall in the 1998 draft, he turned down an offer to play college ball at USC to sign with the Padres.

Links You May Find Interesting

Whither Clay Buchholz’s Fastball?

Something is clearly off with Buchholz if he is seeing nearly a three mph drop from the end of last year, but last year’s velocity increase throughout the season is encouraging news for anyone concerned that his fastball is gone and never coming back.

Frank McCourt to make longshot pitch to league officials

The result of that meeting could determine whether McCourt proceeds with legal action against Commissioner Bud Selig, but one longtime major league executive said Tuesday he is convinced nothing McCourt might say could sway Selig from moving toward new ownership of the Dodgers.

Still No Joe Mauer?

Today, Joe Mauer should be coming off the DL. He’s not. We don’t know why. We don’t know why he went on the DL in the first place, because after 2 weeks, it seems unlikely that it was just the flu. We don’t know what the specialist in Baltimore told him. And we don’t know what needs to happen for him to return, or how long that will be. I’m starting to wonder if anyone in the Twins does know.

24 Consecutive Games With A Hit Makes ESPN's Karabell Notice Ethier

Fantasy owners have a tendency to assume that a player performing above and beyond his past history early in a season is an automatic sell-high option. But in the case of Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Andre Ethier, who is in the midst of an April-record hitting streak (extended to 24 games Wednesday!), I'm not so sure that's the case. In March, I recommended numerous Dodgers as bounce-back choices, led by Matt Kemp, Ethier and Rafael Furcal and, to a lesser degree, James Loney and Jonathan Broxton (OK, so that's not working out), but as I watch Either hit against the Florida Marlins on Wednesday afternoon, I'm reminded that he can flat-out hit, and he looks versatile at the plate, stinging line drives all over the field.

Segura and Trout Continue to Break Out

Meanwhile, Jean Segura persists in simply dominating Cal League pitching, and launched his first two HRs Wednesday night with the 66ers in a 17 hit onslaught against the Mavericks in High Desert. This was coupled with two stolen bases to give him eight bags on the young season. Segura, who turned 21 in March, has made the transition to shortstop effortlessly, with only a single error in the first 18 games.

The Jose Bautista Cleanup Project

While more and more opponents may be intimidated of facing Jose Bautista, is it possible the Blue Jays aren't maximizing his potential by batting him in the three slot? On any other team, their best hitter would be hitting cleanup, but Bautista remains hitting third.

Are you enjoying the NBA Playoffs?

Oklahoma's Stars Have Words

Don’t get me wrong, Westbrook is a fantastic player, and at 22 he’s going to be one for a long time. But he’s a fantastic player with a Colorado-sized chip on his shoulder, and his quest to leave his imprint on every possession of every game often takes him racing past the nuances that could make him a better point guard and a better basketball player.

How the Grizzlies Came to Be

The process of returning the Grizzlies to respectability began in the summer of 2008 when the team traded for the draft rights to both O.J. Mayo and Darrell Arthur. To get Mayo’s rights they had to trade the rights to Kevin Love, but even though Love is currently the better player, Mayo has been a solid contributor to this year’s team. Arthur was disappointing in his first two seasons with the team, but has emerged as an athletic, energy guy off the bench for Memphis this season and is in the conversation for Most Improved Player.

News, Links and Observations

The Cleveland Indians have fired manager Eric Wedge and the entire coaching staff. Why they bothered to do this with less than a week remaining in the season will probably remain a mystery.

The Indians are in the early stages of what general manager Mark Shapiro referred to as a "reloading" period, and the reload will extend to the managerial position and the coaching staff.

A 1:30 p.m. ET press conference was scheduled Wednesday at Progressive Field to announce that Wedge and his coaches have all been relieved of their duties. Wedge and his staff will stay aboard for the season's final six games, including the four-game set in Boston this weekend.

According to a team source, Wedge has known his fate for several days, while the coaches -- including pitching coach Carl Willis, hitting coach Derek Shelton, bench coach Jeff Datz, first-base coach Luis Rivera, third-base coach Joel Skinner and bullpen coach Chuck Hernandez -- were informed of the moves following Tuesday's rainout against the White Sox.

Taking over for Peter Abraham, the number one Yankees blogger at The LoHud Yankees Blog, will be Chad Jennings of the Times-Tribune in Scranton and the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees Blog. I loved Peter's work and as a huge Yankees fan (I'll be sharing news on my own new Yankees Blog very soon). I follow a few blogs for each MLB team, and I'll certainly be adding his new Red Sox blog to my list. The Boston Globe sports section just became relevant again.

Here's a small sample:

Chad covered the Triple-A Yankees with distinction and his blog was a must-read for Yankee fans who wanted to be up to date on the organization’s prospects. Chad has a knack for blogging and is a fine writer and reporter.

As somebody who once covered the Double-A Yankees, I believe there is a lot of value in having a reporter who started in the minors and worked his way up. Chad is a young guy with a lot of ambition and knowledge of baseball and he’s the perfect choice to take over this blog.

Over at Athletics Nation they are discussing the 2010 roster and which players should be o n it. Every aspiring or returning fantasy league champ can use articles like this to get a little closer to the thinking of the front office and the most loyal fans.

Here's a small sample:

As much as I love Rajai Davis, never has the phrase "sell high" been more apropos. Unless we really believe he can hit .360 for half a season ever again in his career, it might be worth entertaining some offers. If not, we have a very fast leadoff or number two hitter for next season. The A's will also have to make a decision on Adam Kennedy (and third base), and it's possible they aren't fully committed to Jack Cust and/or Scott Hairston as full-time players next season. Have the A's found the shortstop answer in Cliff Pennington (and we're assuming that 30 year old Free Agent Bobby Crosby will finally leave Oakland) or are they still searching for something they haven't had since Miguel Tejada (coincidentally, who is a FA of his own this year)?

Lou Piniella described what he expects his 2010 pitching staff to look like and he gets very specific about it in this Chicago Tribune article. The article focuses on the Cubs apparently allowing Rich Harden to depart via free agency. I found the the quote about Jeff Samardzija to be pretty interesting...

Here's a small sample:

"You look at our starting pitching here for next year," Piniella said. "You've got (Carlos) Zambrano, you've got (Ryan) Dempster, you've got (Randy) Wells, you've got (Ted) Lilly, you've got (Tom) Gorzelanny, and you've got (Jeff) Samardzija, who is going to go to winter ball. And if this kid keeps improving, he'll be right in the mix. So we've got six nice arms."

Mike Pelfrey's season has mercifully come to an end and Matt Cerrone of MetsBlog, examines his season and what went wrong. I still think Pelfrey has some good years coming. I'm just not certain what I'd bet to have him on my teams...

Here's a small sample:

…that said, he was pitching in front of a terrible, ever-changing, often-out-of-place defense… also, he seemed to get more ground balls than in previous seasons, and that is important for him to be effective… the problem was his walks, and putting himself in a position to fail, which is something no pitcher should do with that sort of defense behind him…

Tommy Rancel of D'Rays Bay is predicting that Matt Joyce will take over right field for the Rays in 2010. He also sees Gabe Gross as a potential non-tender. I actually thought the Rays were going to give Joyce that shot this season mostly based on Joyce's solid rookie season with the Detroit Tigers. Joyce was traded for Edwin Jackson, a move that at this point heavily favors the Tigers but that could be changing in 2010.

Sports: A Game of Inches has a nice piece on Jonny Gomes and his improvements this season. Those of you who have read my stuff for a while know I've been on that bandwagon. I called him potentially the next David Ortiz. This article breaks down his tools and skills very well and will give you a true sense of his value and upside.

Here's a small sample:

But let's not be too hard on Gomes here. A marginally better than league average walk rate is nothing to sneer at when paired with legitimate power (.230 career ISO) and defense skills that are only half as crappy as his predecessor. In fact, in less than half as many PA's as Adam Dunn this season, Jonny Gomes has been, when you combine and compare offensive and defensive production, exactly half as valuable as Adam Dunn this season. Extrapolated, that insinuates that two have the same production rate per game for their respective teams. Such is true for 2009, but is this a legitimate expectation for 2010 and going forward?

If you enjoy the MLB offseason as much as I do, you should like this piece by BUCCOfans.com. They examine the needs of the Pittsburgh Pirates and a few of their potential targets come the free-agency period. According to their calculations the Pirates have nearly $20 million to spend. I'm sure a good portion of that will go to raises and arbitration but they should be able to add a quality bat and do some bargain hunting for bullpen arms.

Here's a small sample:

The first thing anyone should say is "we've heard this before". Many will point to last year when Neal Huntington said "we're going after a right handed power bat, a starting pitcher, and a bullpen arm". He came away with Eric Hinske, Virgil Vasquez, and Chris Bootcheck, although it should be noted that Daniel Cabrera, Rocco Baldelli, and Derrick Turnbow all turned down more money to play elsewhere (although that's not really a bad thing for the Pirates).

The Red Sox desperately need to re-sign Jason Bay. Bay is their primary power source and a key element in the middle of their lineup. Unfortunately for Boston fans, the Red Sox underestimated what it would take to re-sign him and will now most likely have to compete with other teams for his services. The New York Yankees could be lurking, ready to steal another Red Sox target from under their noses. The Bottom Line (a quality Red Sox blog) examines this situation.

Here's a small sample:

My point is this... Teixeira got away and now he's a major part of why the Yankees are the World Series favorites. If they win it all this season, many will say that they "bought" another ring with the huge contracts they dished out this offseason, but the Red Sox can't afford to let another potential "anchor" sign with someone else.

BA's Player of the Year and Lots More

Jason Heyward is Baseball America's Minor League Player of the Year. No one who follows prospects is surprised. He is truly the total package. He has the tools to do anything on the baseball diamond. He has patience, discipline, developing power, baserunning skills, and a cannon right-field arm. I'm drooling over the possibilities of owning him in my leagues. Yes, I am the guy in your league obsessed with prospects. Fortunately, I have enough control to avoid letting it change my draft or auction...most of the time. The article compares him to Francouer which I think is pretty stupid statistically since he never did have any real patience at the plate.

Speaking of lack of patience, the Giants astound me. They have a nice stadium and resources but they still haven't got a clue how to build an offense. They have a lineup full of guys who hit for a decent batting average but without patience or power. Now, one or two guys like that (who also play excellent defense) would be okay. But a whole lineup of them (sans Pablo Sandoval and Bengie Molina) is just stupid. How does Brian Sabean keep his job? Lincecum could have won another Cy Young with just a little run support.

Our friends over at MLB Fantasy Prospects have a feature article on Jaff Decker. The article, #23 MLB Fantasy Prospect: Jaff Decker (OF, San Diego Padres) - Scouting Report is part of a series on the best prospects of 2009. It gives us the origins of Jaff's unusually spelled name. Who they call John Kruk Jr, a nice compliment unless he becomes a Baseball Tonight analyst... But seriously, add these guys to your RSS Feeds and follow them Twitter, it will be worth it.

I think the idea that Theo Epstein would make the silly offer to the Blue Jays described in this article is not based in reality. The Red Sox are probably one of the few teams that could survive after ravaging their farm system that way but Theo would never do it. He is just too smart.

Thanks AaronGleeman.com! I know for a fact that Fat Kids do indeed love bacon.



Baseball-Intellect takes a look at the injuries that have plagued pitching prospects in the New York Yankees system. I don't think this is a sign that the Yankees have a problem with their minor league coaches and trainers. I think it is more that the Yankees take chances with pitchers that in some cases they draft with the knowledge that they may eventually require surgery. The downside is a lot of wasted dollars (which the Yankees can afford) the upside is a deeper system with upside arms that the low-drafting Yankees would never otherwise get to draft.

Evil E is my favorite Fantasy Basketball analyst. His site RotoEvil.com is a must visit if you are serious about your fantasy basketball. His 50 Players to Target for the 2009-10 Fantasy Basketball Season is in progress right now. I can't wait for his Draft Guide...You should join his Free Fantasy Basketball Mailing List by signing up here.

Not to short change another of the lesser Fantasy Sports (just kidding) RotoRob.com has released their top 20 left-wingers as part of their Fantasy Hockey Draft Kit. Go see if he placed Alexander Ovechkin at number two, just for fun. RotoRob.com also has a Fantasy Basketball Draft Kit that you should be keeping up with.

Okay, to keep this from turning into an All-Sports Blog I will second Roto Think Tank's notion that you should roster Washington Nationals shortstop Ian Desmond. Not only is he playing well down the stretch he looks like the starting shortstop in 2010. He raised his walk rate in the minors this season to a respectable 10.1 percent while cutting his strikeouts to 17.4 percent. He is for real.

The Braves have accumulated quite the collection of starters this season. Tim Hudson is back from surgery and has been solid. They now have Derek Lowe, Javier Vazquez, Hudson, Tommy Hanson, Jair Jurrjens and Kenshin Kawakami all pitching effectively. They have a couple of holes on offense primarily in the outfield. I have a solid hunch that Heyward will take over in right field next season. Could the Braves trade a starter for a left fielder or first baseman this winter?

As the Major League Baseball season comes to a close and the National Football League, National Hockey League, and National Basketball Association get going you want to be sporting the hottest new gear don't you? Well, if you're leaning towards buying a new cap or sports jersey please consider doing it through one of the advertisements on the site. You'll be getting exactly the high quality products you're looking for while helping to keep me in hot dogs and ramen noodles. Thank you for your support, it is and always will be much appreciated.

Shop Now for New Team Logo Apparel at MLB.com Shop!

Concept 59Fifty: Design You Own Cap Contest at NewEraCap.com

NL Outfielders, The Indians Re-Building and Lots More

I'm going to be posting more frequently from now until the end of the season. The posts may be short and heavy on links but they should be of interest for fantasy leaguers in all types of situations.

Will Outfielders Be Scarce in NL-Only Leagues in 2010?
A reader recently commented that the NL outfielder is too deep to select an outfielder like Matt Kemp with the number 1 pick. He went on to say that he would prefer to take Albert Pujols or Hanley Ramirez with his first pick, then take an OFer like Matt Holliday with his 2nd pick. I am not so sure I agree. I think the NL outfield is more scarce than people think.

The Indians' Re-Building Project
Without breaking any new ground, the Indians have employed all of the available paths in their attempts to add talent back into the organization, enjoying great success in trading their veterans for prospects (netting the likes of Sizemore, Cabrera, Choo, Hafner, LaPorta, Lee, Valbuena, Shoppach, Brantley and even further down, the likes of Carlos Santana in this still-continuing process), moderate success in the International market (signing players like Victor, Peralta, Carmona, and Rafael Perez), and establishing a spotty record at best in FA endeavors (Millwood, Pavano, and Howry…but Jason Johnson, The Looch, Masa, etc., etc.). The draft however, remains the great frustration in the formula as the Indians, with a stated reliance on the development of players to fill holes internally, have continued to significantly augment the organizational talent more productively by trading their veterans for other teams’ prospects, with the great majority of the current Indians’ stable of talent coming to the club via that route.

SB Nation Gets a Facelift
The homepage is looking spiffy but the various team blogs are still sporting that cookie-cutter look that I hate about most blog networks.

WHYGAVS Looks at Which Pirates They Were Wrong About

This year, four immediate players come to mind.

1. Nyjer Morgan
2. Garrett Jones
3. Zach Duke
4. Andy LaRoche

Why Gordon Beckham Is Not the Rookie of the Year
There hasn’t been much to dislike about Gordon Beckham’s rookie campaign with the White Sox. He’s sprayed the ball all over the field to a tune of a .808 OPS. His defense has improved with every game he’s played at third base. His at-bat music is awesome. And he plays the game with a confident cockiness that you don’t see from many seasoned veterans.

Who Has the Stuff?
Two components determine how nasty a pitcher’s stuff truly is: velocity and movement. We’ve had radar guns to track the league’s hardest throwers for some time (that would be Joel Zumaya, of course) But now, with the help of pitchf/x data and a local regression technique picked up from Dave Allen, we can come pretty close to quantifying a pitcher’s stuff. We can assign every single pitch an expected run value given its physical characteristics—be it velocity, movement, location, release point, or any other data point given by the pitchf/x data. For the purposes of measuring expected run value based on stuff (StuffRV), I used velocity, horizontal movement, and vertical movement as my three independent variables, and restricted my sample to only righties who released the ball from at least five feet off the ground, with a minimum of 1,000 pitches over the last three years.

Name	StuffRV
A.J. Burnett	-46
Felix Hernandez	-31
Zack Greinke	-26
Edwin Jackson	-26
Ubaldo Jimenez	-26
Chad Billingsley	-23
Brian Wilson	-22
Brandon Morrow	-21
Roy Halladay	-21
Matt Garza	-20
Dave Bush	15
Jeff Suppan	17
Braden Looper	19
Livan Hernandez	20
Greg Maddux	23

Who the Hell is Carlos Rosa?
I had never heard of Carlos Rosa before conducting this analysis, but now, from a sample of just 50 pitches, I can’t stop wondering why he’s not in the Majors. Great stuff. Decent control. The only evident knocks against him are his 2-8 Win-Loss record in AAA and 4.56 ERA. Maybe Dayton Moore knows something I don’t, or perhaps Rosa brought it just for his brief appearance in the Majors, or it’s possible GMDM is undervaluing a young talent who can get Major League hitters out. Actually, all three of these scenarios have probably taken place.

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The Wednesday Morning News

• Tom Glavine may have to retire due to an at least inflamed rotator cuff, an MRI did not reveal a significant tear. He will make a decision based on progress over the next two weeks and the advice of Doctor James Andrews.

• Scott Podsednik has agreed to a minor league deal with the Chicago White Sox. The Sox are in desperate need of a center fielder and leadoff man -- two roles which Podsednik has successfully filled in Chicago previously.

• The recently released Dallas McPherson has signed with the San Francisco Giants. His agent, Scott Boros, believes this is the place where McPherson is most likely to find major league success.

• Just as Chris Carpenter was making believers out of people concerning his comeback to full health he strains his rib-cage. He should be placed on the disabled list soon.

• Daisuke Matsuzaka lasted just 43 pitches before being pulled with what the Boston Red Sox are calling arm fatigue. Dice-K is currently expected to make his next start.

• 
  

Spring Training Things (lotsa links)

Lots of leg room at New Yankee Stadium
Wherever you are sitting this morning, be happy it is not in those seats. Obviously, they are not in their permanent home (we hope!), but with how this new stadium relocation process has been going, anything is possible. After all, the Yankees did build a restaurant that blocks the view for half of the people in the bleachers!

Joe Mauer diagnosed with inflammation
Catcher Joe Mauer has inflammation in his right sacroiliac joint, the Twins said Wednesday, but the team is waiting to consult with other doctors before determining a course of action to treat it.

Dustin McGowan is now out indefinitely
McGowan, who underwent season-ending surgery on his right shoulder in July, complained of discomfort in his arm this past week and visited his surgeon, Dr. Timothy Kremchek, on Sunday in Sarasota, Fla. According to Blue Jays pitching coach Brad Arnsberg, Kremchek didn't find anything wrong besides the expected wear and tear.

Free Emerald Guide to Baseball from SABR
Edited by accomplished and acclaimed baseball historians Gary Gillette and Pete Palmer and published by SABR, The Emerald Guide distills the 2008 season down to 586 fact-filled pages that contain the pitching, fielding, and hitting statistics for every player active in the major and minor leagues in 2008. A bound version is available via print on demand at Lulu.com for $23.94. .Every page in the bound edition is in the PDF.

Posada Sets Joba Chamberlain Straight
"I caught him in the bullpen after that and I told him what I saw was embarrassing," Posada said yesterday before being used as the designated hitter against the Tigers in a 7-4 loss at Joker Marchant Stadium. "I told him to throw the fastball and stop waiting for things to happen. I told him he has to pitch like he can every time no matter what. Whether it's as a starter, reliever or even in the bullpen, people are watching."

The THT Guide to Tiered Drafting
The ranking part of the tier system recommends paying more time and attention to slotting players into tiers, both overall and by position, rather than worrying too much about rankings within tiers (i.e. getting more exact dollar values or rankings). In general, I think this is useful. I would rather have system that put all of the players into their actual, true tiers but then got the ordering within the tiers somewhat wrong, than a system that got many of the exact rankings rights but messed up on some players' tiering. In other words, many small mistakes are usually better than several big ones.

Is Cashman bluffing about starting Cody Ransom?
I e-mailed with a major league GM, who has a third baseman very available, who said he has not been contacted by Brian Cashman. This could mean the Yankees aren't looking around, don't like this particular third baseman or something in between.

J.A. Happ is impressing the Philadelphia Phillies
Happ, who had a lengthy discussion about pitching with Jamie Moyer during Wednesday's game against the Braves at Bright House Field, had his mind turning in the visitors' clubhouse afterward. He allowed a home run to Gape Kapler on a first-pitch fastball in the sixth, and he issued a two-out walk to Morgan Ensberg in the seventh.

Cleveland Indians Camp
Still, I'm not completely sold on Cabrera, and neither, apparently, are the Indians. I think part of the reason they didn't keep Mark DeRosa at second base and shift Jhonny Peralta to third to move Cabrera to short is because they want to see if Cabrera can contribute offensively for the duration of a season first. But there's no reason Cabrera should have to compete with Barfield for a starting spot here in Spring Training.

Saturday Morning Links

At Miami, they’re still celebrating A-Rod
Alex Rodriguez donated a few million to the University of Miami and they have named a park after him -- Alex Rodriguez Park at Mark Light Field (that was the best they could do???). I feel for A-Rod, despite my belief that he is still telling a few white lies about his steroid use. Coincidently (or maybe not so much) Selena Roberts' book about A-Rod has had its publishing schedule moved up. The book will now be out on April 14th. The worst part of this whole mess in my opinion has been the holier-than-thou act that Bud Selig has been perpetrating. Does anyone truly believe that a list of 104 steroid users did the rounds of backrooms in baseball and that Selig never saw it? Not I.

Houston Chronicle Reports problems with Manager Cecil Cooper
This is interesting.

Cecil Cooper. He was some kind of uptight at the beginning of last season and struggled both with the on-the-field and clubhouse duties of a manager. He seemed so over his head at one point that Alyson Footer telephoned Phil Garner and said, ''You need to talk to Coop.'' He did things that lost the clubhouse, and there are players he may never get back in terms of respect. On the other hand, he was the manager filling out the lineup cards and calling the shots when the Astros had that 47-27 run between June 20 and September 11. He calmed down and got comfortable. This is his second time around, and things should be easier. But he's in the last year of his contract and it's telling that the Astros didn't extend him. This is a stupid decision. Even if the Astros don't think he'll be managing in 2010, they should have signed him for 2010 to remove his job security as an issue.

Skip Schumaker's switch to second base
Tony LaRussa's latest genius plan to move outfielder Skip Schumaker to second base appears to have driven Dan of Viva El Birdos off the deep end.

1B Yadier Molina: There are few late-inning surprises I enjoy more than Yadi playing first base, because he plays it exactly like he catches: he gets his body in front of everything, and he doesn't dive after balls so much as getting into a crouch and sliding toward them. He'll provide an excellent competitive advantage when Motte is trying to pick a fastball hitter off of first base.

Laying Down the Law
The guys at Drunk Jays Fans point out an article written by Keith Law that combats the idea that steroid users benefit significantly by their use. I particularly enjoyed this bit:

Marc (Manchester, NH): Keith, I know there is no analytical way to discern how many homers were added to Bonds' totals through PED's. But, is it reasonable to assume that given the spike in his HR totals at an advanced age, maybe 10-15 HR/year were added to his totals?
Keith Law: I wouldn't argue against someone saying he had 10-15 extra in 2001. Where the argument breaks down is in trying to explain that year as an outlier in a career that is in and of itself an outlier. Did he just get better stuff in that year? He was probably using the same stuff in 2002 that he did in 2001, right? Doesn't that tell you we should be looking for another explanation for the 2001 spike?

Top Five Reasons to Sign Joe Crede
John channels John Cusack as he comes up with the top five reasons the Twins should sign third baseman Joe Crede. This is a great read if you're a High Fidelity fan or even just like reading about the Twins.

Screw Bud Selig
Once again the guys at Drunk Jays Fans have managed to put into words exactly the way I feel about Bud Selig.

It was fear of killing the golden goose that kept Selig, the owners, management, the media and the rest of the baseball world from digging deep into and asking hard questions about the drug culture pervaded the game. Now they want to punish players retroactively for something they once condoned?

Diamond Draft - The Official Draft Software of Advanced Fantasy Baseball

Follw me on Twitter: @BigJonWilliams

The Bradley/Burrell Deals and other Fantasy Baseball Links

Some links I think you'll enjoy.

Battle Of The Fantasy Gods Draft Tonight
I participated in this expert league a couple of years ago. I came in second or third I believe. The wierd thing about expert leagues is that everyone wants to look good so they are annoying inactive sometimes. Trades are non-existent. This league is a little bit different in that the names and reps are less hyped so they have less to lose by going out on limbs. It makes what happens in the league a lot more relevant to your leagues.

• Mike Kuchera - The Fantasy Man
• Geoff Stein - Mock Draft Central
• Scott White - CBS Sports
• Brad Stewart - MLB Front Office
• Tim McLeod - Roto Rob
• Troy Patterson - Fantasy Pros 911
• Todd Farino - Fantasy Baseball Search
• Brian Fitzsimmons - Sports Buff
• Jeff Boggis - Fantasy Sports Empires
• Mojo Moshovetis - Crucial Sports
• Chris McDonnell - FantasyBaseball.com

ESPN.com
The link does not connect to a specific article. I just think that the revamping of ESPN's website is something that will interest every sports fan. I do like the new design so far. The pages definitely seem to build faster. There are also links to all the columnists on the main page. It's worth checking out.

Pat Burrell signs with the Tampa Bay Rays
I love this move for the Rays and I have yet to run into anyone who thinks otherwise. This has been a great offseason for the AL Champs. They signed a new set-up man in Joe Nelson. They traded for a power hitting right-fielder, Matt Joyce. And now they've signed a full time designated hitter who should be as good a DH as anyone else in the AL has. The article linked above is Rob Neyer's take on things.

What a fantastic move. As you've no doubt read, this winter there's a buyer's market for sluggardly sluggers like Burrell and Giambi. Burrell earned roughly $28 million with the Phillies over the past two seasons. That was too much. Because of his obvious limitations -- he's not only a left fielder, but a poor one -- he was really worth something like $20 million over those two seasons. He's in his early 30s now, and moving to the better league's best division, so we may assume he'll be worth less than $20 million over the next two seasons.

Milton Bradley Agrees To Deal With Cubs
I like this deal for the Cubs and Bradley. I have heard a few grumbles about it based on his durability and defense but I think those are a bit over blown. I actually was surprised the Texas Rangers didn't find a way to keep him around.

In an effort to free up some salary for Bradley, the Cubs are expected on Tuesday to finalize a deal to send Jason Marquis to the Colorado Rockies in exchange for reliever Luis Vizcaino, MLB.com reported Monday.

Adding Bradley was one of the top priorities this offseason for the Cubs, who got swept out of the playoffs for the second straight year after a lineup loaded with right-handers struggled against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Last Player Picked
I discovered a great new site today (mostly because they linked to yesterday's article on Keepers). This site has an excellent analysis based blog and an awesome Price Guide feature that uses various sets of projections and the criteria you enter to produce fantasy baseball dollar values for your league. This is a great device, check it out.

You may have noticed that the CHONE projections have recently been added as an option on the Price Guide. These are stat projections that have done quite well in the past couple years at predicting the actual stats. One especially interesting aspect are the projections for players with little MLB experience (or none at all).

Using the CHONE projections in the Price Guide, I generated dollar values for a standard mixed league that starts 14 hitters per team. Scanning through the results, I found several young hitters who have not yet seen significant time in the majors and whom CHONE projects as draftable players.

Top 100 Outfielders Part II
Paul of Baseball by Paul is a great analyst. In this piece he shares outfielders #11-50. You could quibble with the rankings but the analysis is spot on as usual. I especially like his projections for Elijah Dukes, Delmon Young, Hunter Pence, and Matt Holliday.

46. Justin Upton, 21, Arizona Diamondbacks – It was an inconsistent season for the heralded youngster as he opened up white hot (five HR, .963 OPS in April) only to cool considerably (four HR, .177 AVG in May/June) and then suffer an injury that relegated him to just nine games across July and August. On the bright side, he finished strong with a .919 OPS in September that included four home runs as well. Strikeouts were a huge problem, but he also displayed a very strong eye even when he was at his lowest point of the season (35 walks in 50 games spanning May/June). As a whole, the 2008 season wasn’t too bad for Upton when you consider his quick ascent to the majors and the highly useful skills he displayed prominently (power and batting eye). The lacking component that may’ve been falsely attributed to Upton in the first place was the speed. He managed just one stolen base while being caught four times. The 15 and 19 stolen bases during his two minor league season of 2006 & 2007 likely earned him the perceived ability but he was stealing at rates of 68% and 63%, respectively. This guy is a bona fide, but it remains to be seen if he is the power-speed combo that his brother, B.J. Upton, is for Tampa Bay. Buy into a couple more steps forward in 2009.

Your #1 Sleeper
Tim Dierkes of Roto Authority is imploring his giant audience to share their favorite sleepers. This should be interesting. As we've learned from Who Wants to be a Millionaire? the larger the consensus the more likely it is to be correct.

I'll kick it off with my own #1 sleeper: Nelson Cruz of the Rangers. Cruz had a ridiculous 2008. He hit .342/.429/.695 in 103 Triple A games, nailing 37 HR and swiping 24 bags. He did just as well in 115 ABs for the big club - .330/.421/.609 with 7 HR and 3 SBs.

Cruz has the potential to jack 30 HR for the Rangers in 2009. He attempted a steal 25% of the time he was on first base in the minors, so the potential for double digit swipes looks strong too. He'll join current Texas mashers Chris Davis and Josh Hamilton.

Slow Mock Draft
I'm in the middle of my own slow mock draft which you'll be hearing about as soon as it completes. Winabango of Fantasy Gameday share the results of his slow mock...

Once again, it my turn to pick for the slow mock draft hosted by Fantasy Baseball Trade Market. To be completely honest, writing about the draft has really opened my eyes to its inter-workings. To this point I have selected a fairly conservative offensive base, which I like. With my last pick I was also able to adjust my strategy due to the large amount of top tier pitchers still available. As I stated in my last post regarding the draft, flexibility is the best strategy in any draft.

Fantasy Baseball Links

The Xavier Nady Debate
I've already declared Nady my choice as right-fielder for the Yankees. The guys at River Ave Blues (one of the best New York Yankees blogs in the business) are still thinking it over. They do a great job of explaining why Nady deserves the regular job.

He has steadily improved from being a platoon player who only hit lefties, to one who hit righties better than lefties last season. Even if that was a peak year for him, if he was to revert to his 2007 line he would still be a fine everyday player and a good replacement for Abreu, especially when you factor in his value as a (slightly better than league average) fielder, and Abreu being the worst RF in the AL by most measures.

Fantasy Pros 911
This site launched on New Years Day and already has loads of interesting stuff to read. Minor league coverage, injury reports, experts leagues, reader contests and tons more. I spent a couple of hours there this morning and I never spend that much time on one site.

If you have listened to my Daily Podcasts you should know,"The Best Time To Prepare For Fantasy Baseball IS NOW! In addition to reading and listening to Podcasts,you should also be doing the following: 1.Make sure you retrieve LAST YEARS FINAL stats of your leagues catagories.You will need to refer to last years stats as you formulate your team 2.Begin to compile a list by position ,of ALL players you feel will be drafted in your league...

A Tough Act To Follow
Ok, my Yankees fandom is showing. However, the guys at this site are some of the best writers on the net. They are always worth reading. This isn't much of a post but I'mcrazy about the new MLB network so any chance tomentionit is alright with me.
The MLB Network launches this evening at 6pm (EST) and will celebrate by airing the unedited original broadcast of Don Larson’s perfect game (including original commercials!) at 7pm, the first time it has been shown to a mass audience since it happened 52 years ago. You can find the new network’s location in your channel lineup by using MLB’s channel locator here.

Why I’m enthusiastic about the MLB Network
Derek from USS Mariner nails exactly why the new MLB network is such a great idea. Not to mention the potentialfor fantasy baseball participants. There is no better place to read up on the Mariners than this site. It should be in the bookmarks of everyone who plays fantasy baseball.

...drawing in new people in other ways and converting them to dedicated fans of the game. I’d love to see shows with different managers talking about strategies, and you could do some amazing things walking through big decisions in their careers. I’m not a Tony LaRussa fan, but I’d love to spend an hour hearing him talk about how his bullpen management philosophy came about, and where he thinks it’s won games and where it’s failed him. Earl Weaver’s still alive — put that guy in front of a camera and start showing him game footage. I’ll bet it’d be must-watch television...

Mastersball 2.0
One of the best fantasy sites that ever existed was swallowed up by fantasybaseball.coma couple of years ago. This was the site that brought Jason Grey (now with ESPN) and Todd Zola (one of the better number crunchers) to our attention. The message board was one of the best in the business, right up there with the RotoJunkie Bullpen and the Baseball HQ message board (paid members only). Be sure to check out their triumphant return.

We simply could not wait another minute! Instead of building a fully functional website with all the bells and whistles, we decided to launch once the core functions were working. It is too close to the start of the season to do otherwise. Our hard-core readers expect nothing less.

Mark DeRosa is traded to the Indians….and the Twins couldn’t top THAT deal?
Okay, I admit I'm a Yankees fan living in Boston and I secretly love listening to teams cry about why their team is still better than another team. Even if they weren't smart enough to pull off the same great deal.

Jeff Stevens. Chris Archer. Jon Gaub. Those three pitchers - none of them highly touted - helped Cleveland raise the stakes in the A.L. Central. They were traded by the Indians to the Cubs for Mark DeRosa, a player the Twins coveted during the winter meetings but couldn’t find a, `match,’ with Chicago. DeRosa, 33 and in the final year of his contract, joins the Tribe after batting .285 last season with 30 doubles, 21 homers and 87 RBI. Those numbers sure would have looked nice at third base for the Twins. My first reaction was to grab a copy of Baseball America’s Top 10 A.L. Central prospects. Stevens, Archer and Gaub were not listed among Cleveland’s top ten prospects. My second reaction was to click onto John Sickels minor league baseball site and look up his list of Cleveland’s top 20 prospects for 2009. Unless my eyes deceived me - I haven’t begun to ring in the New Year yet - none of those pitchers were listed there, either.

Red Sox made play for SS Ramirez
I never for even one second believed that the Marlins would deal Hanley Ramirez to the Red Sox. Not just a few months after signing him to a very club friendly extension. The Red Sox are desperate to add a big bat to their lineup. They seem to have some serious doubts about what Mike Lowell, David Ortiz, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Jed Lowrie will contribute to their lineup. This is easy to understand because despite the flash in the rotation this is a team built around its mashing lineup...which isn't mashing quite so much anymore.

It was originally believed that these recent discussions came after Boston lost out in the running for Mark Teixeira, who signed an eight-year, $180 million deal with the Yankees last week, but in fact, they were held a few weeks prior to that. Though the Red Sox can't quite match the Yankees dollar for dollar (Boston was believed to be offering at least $170 million over eight guaranteed years plus two additional years that could be voided by the team based on plate appearances), Boston is willing to think creatively to try to enhance its offense.

What A Putzy Deal!!!
I love the crusty old fantasy sports veterans. Charlie is like our industry's Bob Ryan. You don't always agree with him but you're always interested in what he might have to say.

...the ‘09 draft will be filled with a lot of guesswork on whom the closers will be. Do your homework, and you can use this to your advantage. And while you’re at it, don’t forget about Putz. Our fantasy injury guru Rick Wilton has been predicting KRod is going down with an arm injury for the last three years. Having signed the big contract, Frankie might try a little too hard to impress the New York fans, and Mr. Wilton’s prophecy might come true. A late round or reserve pick of Putz could reap big rewards...