Good News and Bad News

The Good News is Miguel Cabrera is staying put on the Detroit Tigers. This means that his AL-only owners do not have to fear losing one of the better hitters in baseball. The Bad News is that Miguel Cabrera is still on one of the lesser teams in the American League. The Tigers do not have a bad lineup but just because they won't consider trading Cabrera does not mean they won't trade any of their other hitters to improve the team in the long term, which would seriously impact Cabrera's production.

The Angels are considering a group of free agent starters that could be of interest to fantasy owners, which is Good News. General Manager David Reagins has contacted the agents for Pedro Martinez, Paul Byrd, and Mark Mulder. All of these pitchers have been fantastic fantasy options at one point or another. As a fantasy owner I am always happy when more options become available even if I am not the beneficiary. The Bad News is that these guys are all unemployed right now for a reason -- their lack of production or health (sometimes both) in their most recent appearances.

John Lackey and Ervin Santana should begin rehab assignments soon. This is good news for those owners. If they both come back healthy and effective they could be among the better pitchers in the American League. The Bad News is elbow and shoulder injuries in pitchers are always a cause for concern. The rest and rehabbing they have done did not rid them of their problems but merely strengthened the area around the injuries. The hope is that this will allow them to ignore the problem for another chunk of time. That could be a matter of years or days.

Xavier Nady will not need surgery and may be able to return in a month or so, which is Good News. The Yankees and Nady's owners were counting on him to maintain the gains he showed in the last couple of years. Unfortunately (and this is the Bad News), Nady does have a partially torn ligament in his elbow. It could completely tear at any time which is why the Yankees are now considering using him as a designated hitter. Which means that Hideki Matsui will be in the field sooner and perhaps more often than we thought. It could also mean that the Yankees will have two DH's on the roster and both will be less productive (less at-bats) than projected.

Ryan Doumit will miss the next 8 weeks (at least) after wrist surgery. This has to be considered Bad News. I engaged in some twittering yesterday about Doumit replacements (you can follow me @bigjonwilliams) and the consensus in most AL-only leagues is that the pickings are quite slim. In some leagues Lou Marson is available (I can't see him receiving many at-bats but he can hit), or Jason Jaramillo (he is not a great hitter but there are worse options). In shallower mixed leagues you might find John Baker (a great hitter without much power) or Nick Hundley ( he has power but isn't much of a hitter). The Good News is that Doumit is projected to be back in 8-10 weeks so his return to your roster will seem like a nice post All-Star Break acquisition. I also revealed that I had an opportunity to trade for Geovanny Soto to replace Doumit but the asking price turned out to be too high in my opinion. My rebuilding league mate wanted Doumit $10A, Nate McClouth $12c11, and minor leaguer Brett Wallace for Soto $15A and Brad Hawpe $27. With Soto also banged up and struggling at the plate I thought this was way too much.

What the hell is wrong with Geovanny Soto?

Ryan Doumit out 8-10 weeks, having surgery

Xavier Nady's ligament is only partially torn

Angels' Reagins begins looking outside for pitching help

The Facts About Omir Santos and (much older) Santos Shakes Off the Rust

Xavier Nady Likely Out for the Season

UPDATE: According to Peter Abraham of the LoHud Yankees Blog, Xavier Nady will not require surgery on his injured elbow. Unfortunately the return date for Nady is still unknown.

The Best Yankees Blog on the Planet

Xavier Nady had Tommy John Surgery on his elbow in 2001 and he may need it again. He will be placed on the disabled list before Thursday's Home Opener.

From the New York Daily News:
Although nothing is official, Nady told several teammates that he was likely headed for Tommy John reconstructive surgery, the same procedure he underwent in Sept. 2001. That would knock him out for the rest of this season, leaving the start of 2010 in doubt for the free agent-to-be. Nady will be examined by team physician Dr. Chris Ahmad before Thursday's home-opener, at which time a final diagnosis will likely be released

For the New York Yankees and obviously Xavier Nady, this is bad news. Fortunately, Nick Swisher is still around and hot to boot. He is the obvious replacement in right field which is good for his owners but a problem for the Yankees' depth. Melky Cabrera will obviously get to hang around a lot longer. The Yankees will need some corner infield depth which with third baseman Alex Rodriguez out and first baseman Mark Teixeira's wrist bothering him when he bats right-handed was already a problem. Shelly Duncan is probably the first option. This may force the Yankees to consider some trade options. Players such as Hank Blalock and Dallas McPherson could be available.

In the short term, Nady owners in shallower leagues should check the waiver wire for Swisher, who with is hot start may already be out of reach. In deeper leagues, Melky Cabrera will see an increase in at-bats especially against left-handers. This could also force the Yankees to seriously consider A-Rod's claims that he could be ready by the end of April.

More as it comes together...

How the Teixeira Deal Changes the Yankees Outfield

Before the Mark Teixeira deal we were fairly certain that Nick Swisher would be playing everyday at first base. This made predicting the Yankees outfield fairly simple (before any new trades or free agent signings). Johnny Damon would be the regular left fielder, Brett Gardner and Melky Cabrera would share center field, and Xavier Nady would play right field. Hideki Matsui will be the everyday designated hitter and an extra outfielder. That gave the Yankees five outfielders which is the number that most teams carry on their 25-man rosters.

Upgrading the Defense

Teixeira is now the first basemman. This means Nick Swisher must get most of his at-bats as an outfielder. Swisher has played center field in the past but his defense there leaves much to be desired. One of the under reported aspects of the changes the Yankees are making this offseason is the improvement to the team defense which was not very good during the 2008 season as measured by UZR. The 2008 Yankees defense was -39.4 runs as measured by UZR, 28th in baseball. Two large factors in that measurement are no longer on the team - former right fielder Bobby Abreu (-25.9) and former first baseman Jason Giambi ( -2.5 ). Giambi has been replaced by Teixeira who was the best first baseman by UZR/150 at +10.1 in 2008. The Yankees also want to upgrade their outfield defense.

Defensive Potential

Johnny Damon LF (19.9 ) CF ( -3.0 )
Xavier Nady LF (-1.2) CF ( -41.0) RF (0.5)
Nick Swisher LF ( 6.3 ) CF ( -10.3 ) RF ( 14.2 )
Melky Cabrera CF ( -11.3 )
Brett Gardner LF (24.3) CF ( 40.2)
Hideki Matsui LF (-15.2 )

This makes the best possible defensive outfield for the Yankees -- Johnny Damon in left field (19.9), Brett Gardner in center field (40.2) and Nick Swisher in right field (14.2). But obviously the Yankees also need to consider offense which was not what they were expecting in 2008.

Offensive Potential

Johnny Damon (.373 wOBA in 2008, .349 wOBA career)
Xavier Nady (.374 wOBA in 2008, .342 wOBA career)
Nick Swisher (.325 wOBA in 2008, .347 wOBA career)
Melky Cabrera (.285 wOBA in 2008, .311 wOBA career)
Brett Gardner (career .358 wOBA in the minors, .380 wOBA 2008 at AAA, and .282 wOBA MLB)
Hideki Matsui (.348 wOBA in 2008, .366 wOBA career)

The Best of Both Worlds

Since Matsui is likely the DH is any case we'll place him there and take him out of this part of the discussion. Johnny Damon is clearly the best candidate for left field when we combine his offense and defense and his likely role as the Yankees leadoff hitter. Melky Cabrera's track record of lousy offense should remove him from the conversation as well. His defense just isn't good enough to justify an everyday role while contributing zero to the offense. Xavier Nady's defense in center is much worse than Gardner's and Swisher's so he is not a candidate to play center field. Brett Gardner's offensive potential and superior defense makes him clearly the best possible center fielder for the Yankees. This creates a battle for right field between Nick Swisher and Xavier Nady.

The Battle for Right Field

To this point most have assumed that the Yankees' most like Spring Training battle would be between Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner for center field. I think it isn't a contest. By the numbers, Gardner is the far superior option. This makes the biggest battle of the spring between Nick Swisher and Xavier Nady. Swisher seems clearly the better defensive option but Nady is not a detriment in right field. The real question is what is the true offensive level of both players. If we believe that Nady's gains in 2008 are for real then Nady gains an edge on Swisher. However, if both revert to their career levels of performance Swisher becomes a slightly better option especially when defense is considered.

Both Swisher and Nady have demonstrated the ability to play multiple positions. Nady is competent at first base, and both corner outfield positions and Swisher adds center field to his versatility. Nady has an .863 OPS against lefties during the last three seasons and an .810 OPS versus right-handers. Swisher also is better against left-handers with a .864 OPS and a .799 OPS against right-handers. So a platoon doesn't make much sense.
Feelings from Deep Down in the Guts

I believe that Xavier Nady's 2008 gains are for real. I get the impression that the Yankees also believe that those gains are real. I also believe that Nick Swisher will bounce back to at least his career levels and very possibly higher. I have followed the Yankees for years and unfortunately they tend to sacrifice defense for offense, especially when it means playing a veteran over an untested younger player. But I think manager Joe Girardi will break from this trend in 2009. So what does this mean? Here is what my gut and my examination of the context is telling me:

1. Unless Melky Cabrera is absolutely amazing in Spring Training he will not be on the major league team to start the season.
   
2. Xavier Nady will be the regular right fielder.
3. Brett Gardner will start in center field unless he is attrocious in Spring Training.
4. Nick Swisher will utilize his versatility to find 350-400 at-bats rotating between left field, center field, right field, first base, and designated hitter.
   
5. If Hideki Matsui is not the designated hitter, he will not be in the lineup.

Other Possibilities

The rumors of Manny Ramirez also coming to the Bronx are still out there but I think this is an unlikely development. Much more likely is that the Yankees complete their much rumored trade for Mike Cameron. Cameron would start in center field and throw everything off again.

The other very strong possibility is that the Yankees do what they usually do and begin the season with the veteran Nick Swisher in center field. In this scenario Brett Gardner would be the reserve outfielder to start the season. Even if this is the case I believe that (to use a battered cliche) the cream will rise to the top and Gardner will be the regular center fielder by the all-star break. Gardner is simply too talented too remain on the bench in favor of inferior defensive (and potentially offensive) options based on nothing but veteran status.

Conclusion

Brett Gardner is one of my favorite sleepers for the 2009 season. I will be posting my complete evaluation of his skills in the series of sleeper articles that should appear in the next few weeks.